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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Austal Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?

Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is in the crosshairs of investors looking to take the company private.
  • In an announcement, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) said it is regularly involved in discussion with strategic parties to create value for shareholders.
  • The recent large contract from the US Navy, potentially more contracts in the pipeline and a weak AUD could result in investors paying up to take the company private.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Eoflow, Hogy Medical, Elevance Health , Cigna Group/, Mckesson Corp, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals, Teleflex Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Risk/Reward Profile
  • Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Mixed FY23 Result; Soaring Cost to Negatively Impact Profit in FY24
  • Elevance Health: A Critical Update (Rating Downgrade)
  • The Cigna Group: Focus on Affordability and Pricing Drives Medical Cost Performance – Key Drivers
  • McKesson Corporation: A Streamlined Portfolio After Recent Divestitures – Key Drivers
  • Paradigm Biopharma – Bolstering the iPPS data package for OA
  • Teleflex Incorporated: New Launches & Other Key Drivers

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Risk/Reward Profile

By Arun George

  • Medtronic Plc (MDT US) aims to acquire Eoflow (294090 KS) through share purchase agreements (SPA), a share subscription agreement (SSA) and a public tender offer at KRW30,000.
  • The shares are trading wide to terms due to key risks – regulatory approvals and the minimum acceptance condition (Medtronic owns 53.02% of the post-SSA outstanding shares).
  • The regulatory approvals should be forthcoming due to minimum competition issues. The minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 15.7%, which is achievable due to an attractive offer.

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Mixed FY23 Result; Soaring Cost to Negatively Impact Profit in FY24

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported mixed FY23 result. Revenue and operating profit were ahead of guidance while net profit missed guidance mainly due to a one-off loss of ¥464M. 
  • For FY24, Hogy guided for 5% revenue growth. However, operating, and net profits are expected to decline 23% and 19%, respectively, due to rising costs and exchange rate fluctuations.
  • While Hogy will continue cost cutting and improving productivity, the company is not expected to fully offset the cost pressure. Hence near-term outlook for the company remains bleak.

Elevance Health: A Critical Update (Rating Downgrade)

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Elevance Health, Inc. has been active in the M&A market with the divestiture of its life disability business and a “new markets” acquisition.
  • However, evidence suggests that success is not guaranteed, according to the company.
  • The company’s stock has been downgraded to a moderate buy.

The Cigna Group: Focus on Affordability and Pricing Drives Medical Cost Performance – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The last quarter was an all-around beat for Cigna with revenues and earnings well above Wall Street expectations.
  • Evernorth, including pharmacy benefit services, Specialty Pharmacy, and Evernorth Care, retained, expanded, and won new relationships.
  • Cigna Healthcare’s health benefits platform achieved revenue and customer growth, with solid performance across U.S. commercial, U.S. government, and international health businesses.

McKesson Corporation: A Streamlined Portfolio After Recent Divestitures – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • McKesson managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, closing out a solid fiscal 2023 with full-year revenues of $277 billion and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $25.94.
  • The core Pharmaceutical Distribution business supported growth in the U.S.
  • Pharmaceutical segment, and they divested their European operations to streamline their portfolio.

Paradigm Biopharma – Bolstering the iPPS data package for OA

By Edison Investment Research

Paradigm is focused on the development of injectable pentosan polysulfate (iPPS) for the treatment of osteoarthritis (OA). While the company has several active human clinical trials, it is also assessing iPPS in a canine model due to the similarities in disease biology. Furthermore, since dogs have a shorter lifespan than humans, the full progression of the condition can be assessed over a condensed period. Management believes that this could be advantageous in evaluating the disease-modifying OA drug (DMOAD) status of iPPS, a key goal for Paradigm. The latest data show that iPPS demonstrates durable effects on pain, function and cartilage volume in the canine OA model at the three-year human equivalent time point (canine 26 weeks). These positive results add to a growing data package to support iPPS as a potential DMOAD. Paradigm intends to present this to the FDA and EMA in H2 CY23, and the outcome of these discussions could represent a significant catalyst for the company, in our view.


Teleflex Incorporated: New Launches & Other Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teleflex had a strong start to 2023 with an all-around beat.
  • For the first quarter, the revenues of Teleflex were $710.9 million, a year-over-year increase.
  • Teleflex continues to benefit from its diversified portfolio and viewed strength across its largest product categories, including OnControl, balloon pumps, and complex catheters.

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Daily Brief Financials: BFI Finance Indonesia, Kwg Property Holding, Binance Coin, Coinshares International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Enter the Era of High Returns
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, KWG Living Group
  • The Fraught Future of Privacy Tokens
  • CoinShares International – Lämnar oron från 2022 bakom sig

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Enter the Era of High Returns

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia management recently confirmed its expectations for receivables growth of +20% YoY this year, which looks conservative after a strong start to the year, with +53.9% new-financing growth. 
  • The company booked a strong set of 1Q2023 numbers with strong new bookings growth,  improving net interest spreads, low NPLs, and an ROE of over 22%
  • BFI Finance Indonesia has the lowest cost of funds of the multi-finance companies in Indonesia, with a long track record of strong risk management, and remains a top pick.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, KWG Living Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


The Fraught Future of Privacy Tokens

By Kaiko

  • Last week, Binance announced that it would restrict trading of privacy tokens for users in France, Italy, Poland, and Spain starting June 26.
  • This follows similar de-listings by Huobi, OkCoin, Bithumb, and Upbit.
  • As the name suggests, privacy tokens are designed to allow users to transact anonymously, rather than pseudonymously.

CoinShares International – Lämnar oron från 2022 bakom sig

By Edison Investment Research

CoinShares International (CS) har gått vidare från oron på marknaderna för digitala tillgångar under 2022 och har levererat Q123 EBITDA på 8,4 miljoner GBP, med ett meningsfullt positivt intäkts- och inkomstbidrag från både dess passiva kapitalförvaltningstjänster (9,4 miljoner GBP) och dess egenutvecklade handelsaktiviteter (6,7 miljoner GBP). Det upprätthåller en försiktig kostnadshanteringsmetod, med administrativa kostnader (inkl. D&A och direkta kostnader) på 7,6 miljoner GBP under Q123, en minskning med cirka 22 % jämfört med föregående år och i stort sett jämförbara med 7,9 miljoner GBP under Q422 (exklusive en goodwillnedskrivning). Det handlas nu till 0,8 gånger sitt bokförda värde i slutet av mars 2023.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Austal Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?

Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is in the crosshairs of investors looking to take the company private.
  • In an announcement, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) said it is regularly involved in discussion with strategic parties to create value for shareholders.
  • The recent large contract from the US Navy, potentially more contracts in the pipeline and a weak AUD could result in investors paying up to take the company private.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Enm Holdings, Nitori Holdings, Adeia, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Hyatt Hotels Corp Cl A, Royal Caribbean Cruises and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ENM (128 HK): Chinachem Takeover
  • Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review – Still Fastie, Nitori, Zozo, and Lasertec as Interesting Names
  • ADEA: Undiscovered AI
  • Companies with High Frequency of Share Retirements Tend to Have a High Awareness of Cash Allocation
  • Hyatt Hotels Corporation: The New Extended Stay Offering Could Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers
  • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.: Poised For An Improved 2023? – Key Drivers

ENM (128 HK): Chinachem Takeover

By David Blennerhassett

  • Fashion wear retailer ENM Holdings (128 HK) has received a delisting Offer from major shareholder, Chinachem.
  • The Scheme consideration of HK$0.58 is a 24.7% premium to last close, although shares popped 24% prior to suspension. 
  • The Offer price is final. There is probably enough here for the Offer to get up. But there is potentially significant value to be unlocked from recent land rezoning. 

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review – Still Fastie, Nitori, Zozo, and Lasertec as Interesting Names

By Travis Lundy

  • The Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 review has 2 months left of data collection. That means the rankings are quasi-fixed. So then the question is what to do with them.
  • There is a consultation in progress. You still have one week to respond, but that doesn’t change the names. 
  • The top inclusion is the big one in dollar terms but low in liquidity. The next two are likely to be consumer names, and much more impactful. 

ADEA: Undiscovered AI

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ADEA could be the most under the radar artificial intelligence (“AI”) beneficiary through its patent portfolio related to hybrid bonding
  • Hybrid bonding is expected to help usher the next generation of semiconductors to handle the growing need for speed and bandwidth with lower power consumption
  • ADEA’s stock has been mainly valued on the free cash flow it is able to generate from its media patent portfolio with little value given to ADEA’s semiconductor patent portfolio

Companies with High Frequency of Share Retirements Tend to Have a High Awareness of Cash Allocation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With increasing pressure to buy back treasury stock to raise ROE, more companies with few tradable shares are expected to promptly retire treasury stock in the future.
  • Companies that have retired treasury stock three or more times show not only higher stock price valuations, but also superior growth policy scores, cash holding scores, and dividend policy scores.
  • Rather than simply focusing on the share repurchase, the focus should be on the overall cash allocation that led to it, including investment in growth and shareholder returns.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation: The New Extended Stay Offering Could Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hyatt Hotels delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent quarter with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Hyatt achieved significant net room expansions, with more than 5000 rooms added on a gross in the quarter.
  • In the quarter, Hyatt completes its Dream Hotel Group acquisition.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.: Poised For An Improved 2023? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Royal Caribbean delivered a solid result managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • For both ticket and onboard, solid demand for Caribbean itineraries is translated into advanced load factors at quite a better-than-expected pricing.
  • Moreover, secular tailwinds continued benefitting Royal Caribbean, with consumers shifting spending and preferences from goods to experiences, resulting in strong travel and entertainment spend.

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Daily Brief ECM: GoTo: In Need of More Cash as Growth Begins to Decelerate and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo: In Need of More Cash as Growth Begins to Decelerate
  • Amman Mineral International IPO – Promising Assets with Decent Prospects
  • GoDaddy Inc: Tapping Into The AI Market For Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: 3 nm Technology Saving The Day? – Key Drivers
  • Teleflex Incorporated: New Launches & Other Key Drivers

GoTo: In Need of More Cash as Growth Begins to Decelerate

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) is seeking shareholder approval to raise new capital through a private placement of shares (118.4bn A shares). Shareholder meeting will be held on 30th June.
  • The company’s strategy to prioritise profits have put pressure on growth rates and it seems that the company is in need of more funds to refuel its decelerating growth rates.
  • Though profit matrices have improved, some important growth matrices such as GTV have shown a downward trend and the company is still burning cash.

Amman Mineral International IPO – Promising Assets with Decent Prospects

By Ethan Aw

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise around US$880m in its Indonesian IPO. 
  • Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
  • AMI’s profitability grew dramatically over the track record period. However, copper prices might possibly be on a downtrend in the near term.

GoDaddy Inc: Tapping Into The AI Market For Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the first quarter, GoDaddy drove double-digit growth in its Commerce and Applications segment, supported by 10% ARR growth in its Create and Grow products.
  • The Core Platform revenue of GoDaddy was $698 million, with a strong normalized EBITDA margin.
  • The newly managed WooCommerce store offering of GoDaddy replaced its old managed WordPress Commerce offering.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: 3 nm Technology Saving The Day? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Taiwan Semiconductor had a weak quarter and the company’s revenue declined 16.1% in U.S. dollars due to weaker macroeconomic conditions and declining end-market demand.
  • However, fabless semiconductor inventories increased in the fourth quarter at a significantly greater level.
  • Additionally, the end market demand recovery due to the channels’ reopening is considerably less than the company anticipated.

Teleflex Incorporated: New Launches & Other Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teleflex had a strong start to 2023 with an all-around beat.
  • For the first quarter, the revenues of Teleflex were $710.9 million, a year-over-year increase.
  • Teleflex continues to benefit from its diversified portfolio and viewed strength across its largest product categories, including OnControl, balloon pumps, and complex catheters.

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Daily Brief ESG: Companies with High Frequency of Share Retirements Tend to Have a High Awareness of Cash Allocation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Companies with High Frequency of Share Retirements Tend to Have a High Awareness of Cash Allocation

Companies with High Frequency of Share Retirements Tend to Have a High Awareness of Cash Allocation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With increasing pressure to buy back treasury stock to raise ROE, more companies with few tradable shares are expected to promptly retire treasury stock in the future.
  • Companies that have retired treasury stock three or more times show not only higher stock price valuations, but also superior growth policy scores, cash holding scores, and dividend policy scores.
  • Rather than simply focusing on the share repurchase, the focus should be on the overall cash allocation that led to it, including investment in growth and shareholder returns.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, KWG Living Group

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, KWG Living Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|US Rally Pauses on Services ISM-Recession Fears?; NUGGET: KEPCO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|US Rally Pauses on Services ISM-Recession Fears?; NUGGET: KEPCO, AI, and Data Centers ?
  • Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!
  • SE/BABA/PDD: Lazada’s Fully Managed Model Will Impact Shopee, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks
  • 700.HK/Douyin/3690.HK/XPEV/1211HK/TSLA/LI/NIO: China to Extend Purchase Tax Exemption for NEVs

Ohayo Japan|US Rally Pauses on Services ISM-Recession Fears?; NUGGET: KEPCO, AI, and Data Centers ?

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. US Rally Pauses as weak(er) Services ISM brings recession risk reminder; MS Big Bearish Call on SPX; Apple unveils Game Changing VR Headset ; Crypto Worries -Binance CEO Charged
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; Expect a pull back today given US pause, overbought markets, and stronger yen;  MS Bullish Call on Japan; Panasonic expands Battery production for TESLA
  • NUGGET. Data Centers – Demand set to Explode with AI: Next Growth Driver for an Already undervalued Kansai Electric ?

Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

By William Keating

  • The extent to which Smartphone & PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. 
  • Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY’23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.
  • Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that’s proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found

SE/BABA/PDD: Lazada’s Fully Managed Model Will Impact Shopee, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks

By Shawn Yang

  • We recently conducted interviews with some Lazada merchants to understand the upcoming large-scale launch of the fully managed model, also known as the Choice channel. 
  • 1) Lazada considers the fully managed model as a centralized channel for cost-effective products; 2) Lazada prioritizes market share and aims to ensure orderly operations of its fully managed model.
  • We project Lazada is seizing the opportunity to capture Shopee’s market share while Shopee is more focused on profitability. We maintain SELL for SE and BUY for BABA and PDD.

700.HK/Douyin/3690.HK/XPEV/1211HK/TSLA/LI/NIO: China to Extend Purchase Tax Exemption for NEVs

By Shawn Yang

  • Tencent/700.HK: new promotional video for “HoK(Honour ok Kings) World” is released
  • Douyin/Meituan/3690.HK: Last week, the “Douyin Sales Assistant” app was launched
  • XPEV/1211HK/TSLA/LI/NIO: China to extend purchase tax exemption for NEVs (+/+/+/+/+)

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Daily Brief Macro: Stabilising China’s Residential Property Market Produces Unintended Consequences and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Stabilising China’s Residential Property Market Produces Unintended Consequences
  • Political Risk and Investing: Seeking Opportunity Amidst Disruption
  • Credit Watch – What’s Going on with Credit Spreads?
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Mitra Keluarga’s Growth, NFCX Leads in 2W EVs and BFIN’s Era
  • CX Daily: Lower Fares and a Regional Focus Help China’s Private Airlines Win Race to Profitability
  • AFC Iraq Fund May 2023 Update: “Market Takes a Breather, While the Currency Stabilises”
  • The World Has a New No. 2 Copper Supplier – El Nino Effects Start to Sink In?

Stabilising China’s Residential Property Market Produces Unintended Consequences

By Said Desaque

  • Rising stress in China’s residential real estate sector become more evident in 2022. Tough market conditions in lower tier cities will depress national home sales in 2023. 
  • The People’s Bank of China lowered mortgage rates to stimulate housing demand. Removing the national mortgage rate floor on a city-by-city basis has, however, created an uneven funding environment.
  • Removal of the national mortgage rate floor has benefitted first time buyers, but existing mortgagors have engaged in prepayments to the detriment of banks’ profits and consumer spending. 

Political Risk and Investing: Seeking Opportunity Amidst Disruption

By Massif Capital Research

  • Frequent readers of our blog posts and research papers likely are well acquainted with our underlying philosophy that commodity prices alone do not provide a compelling rationale for investing in real asset businesses
  • Instead, as a result of decomposing the returns of individual real assets businesses, we have found that these stocks often exhibit a broader range of return drivers
  • One such driver is political risk.

Credit Watch – What’s Going on with Credit Spreads?

By Andreas Steno

  • Credit spreads remain low amidst banking turmoil and a weakening economy (despite the job market)
  • The current risk appetite in the equity space and other markets spills over to credit spreads
  • Shorting everything cyclical and going long defensives would be THE play if spreads increase

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Mitra Keluarga’s Growth, NFCX Leads in 2W EVs and BFIN’s Era

By Angus Mackintosh


CX Daily: Lower Fares and a Regional Focus Help China’s Private Airlines Win Race to Profitability

By Caixin Global

  • Airlines /: Lower fares and a regional focus help China’s private airlines win race to profitability
  • PMI /: China’s factory activity gets back to growth, but recovery remains patchy, Caixin PMI shows
  • NDB /: BRICS-backed New Development Bank issues record $1.2 billion of panda bonds

AFC Iraq Fund May 2023 Update: “Market Takes a Breather, While the Currency Stabilises”

By Asia Frontier Capital

  • The AFC Iraq Fund, and the market, took a breather after a great three-month run from the January 2023 lows, during which the fund was up 49.1%, and the RSISX USD Index was up 43.8%.
  • For the month, the AFC Iraq Fund was down an estimated 11.3%, underperforming its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, which was down 8.7%.
  • For the year, the AFC Iraq Fund is up an estimated 31.2%, outperforming the index’s increase of 24.9%.

The World Has a New No. 2 Copper Supplier – El Nino Effects Start to Sink In?

By The Commodity Report

  • El Nino effects start to sink in? During last week grain prices saw building up some momentum.
  • The DSCI drought index also surged after many weeks of continuous declines.
  • Nevertheless, we should actually see lots of rain during the summer in the US if we’ll see a classic El Nino.

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