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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 29
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: ADR Premiums Surge to Near All-Time Highs on ‘Nvidia-Rally’
  • COLI 688 HK – Value Emerging, the Only Pure Play in China Prop to Gain Mkt Share and Back to Growth
  • New Horizon Health (6606.HK) – What Makes a Really Good Story? Definitely Not Just Breakeven
  • The Future of Insurance

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The recent discrimination incident will likely affect traffic recovery pace of Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) negatively if it turns into a full-scale boycott by mainland passengers.
  • The scenario of CX becoming majority-owned by Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is getting increasingly possible. This may not be totally positive to CX given CA’s weaker service ranking.
  • Consensus forecasts now look somewhat bullish following the incident, and the stock’s 0.7x P/B does not stand out as attractive relative to history or ROE (7% in FY25F).

Taiwan Dual-Listings: ADR Premiums Surge to Near All-Time Highs on ‘Nvidia-Rally’

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • The semiconductor stock rally in the U.S. caused by Nvidia’s monster results and guidance last week has caused multiple ADR premiums to surge to near all-time highs.
  • TSMC and UMC’s ADR premiums don’t appear sustainable given their trading history.
  • Telecom CHT wasn’t affected by the Nvidia rally and now has one of the lowest ADR discounts in its history.

COLI 688 HK – Value Emerging, the Only Pure Play in China Prop to Gain Mkt Share and Back to Growth

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this insight, we explore the investment thesis and major share price drivers for 688 HK
  • COLI saw share price weakness, and is trading at 0.46x P/B.  Potential risks are 1) fail to meet 20% growth target 2) slower than expected land acquisition
  • We see value emerging from the stock, and recommend BUY as long as the stock trades below HKD20 (as a technical indicator)

New Horizon Health (6606.HK) – What Makes a Really Good Story? Definitely Not Just Breakeven

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • New Horizon Health (NHH) achieved high performance growth last year. However, we recommend investors take a calm and objective view of NHH’s current high growth rate if they see the real story.
  • NHH’s dual attributes of medical+consumption means large growth potential/strong profitability. Thus, the real expectation for NHH is not just about achieving breakeven, but more about how to achieve high profitablity.
  • If market education level falls short of expectations in the future, it’s difficult for NHH to achieve expected scale/profit margin. There would be greater valuation downward risk at that time.

The Future of Insurance

By subSPAC

  • SPACs are often synonymous with high-risk, cash-intensive early-stage companies making their public debut, but occasionally, a SPAC deal like CCC Intelligent Solutions emerges and shifts the narrative.
  • CCC is a SaaS business with four decades of operational history in the property and casualty insurance sector that went public through a SPAC in 2021.
  • Over the company’s history, it has processed over $1 trillion in transactions for 30,000 businesses.

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Macro: US Debt Ceiling Raise Tells Us Gold Is Going Up… It Must Be Part Of Every Portfolio and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US Debt Ceiling Raise Tells Us Gold Is Going Up… It Must Be Part Of Every Portfolio
  • Back to a Focus on Technicals
  • Macro Watch – Here Is Why a Debt Ceiling Deal May Be NEGATIVE for Equities
  • China Recovery – Households

US Debt Ceiling Raise Tells Us Gold Is Going Up… It Must Be Part Of Every Portfolio

By Michael J. Howell

  • US debt ceiling agreement warns again about upcoming monetary inflation. Gold (and crypto) is a great hedge against monetary inflation, but less good against cost inflation
  • US debt problem demands near double-digit annual growth in Fed balance sheet over next decade… QE is not dead!
  • Gold could easily test US$3000/ oz. Bitcoin could do even better! Buy into any near-term weakness

Back to a Focus on Technicals

By Cam Hui

  • The debt ceiling drama has been too much of a distraction for U.S. equity investors. It’s time to focus again on the technicals.
  • A review of the market’s technical structure reveals serious negative divergences characterized by bubbly narrow leadership and weakening cyclical indicators.
  • While this doesn’t mean that the stock market is about to crash, it does indicate that investors should be prepared for reduced long-term return expectations from U.S. equities.

Macro Watch – Here Is Why a Debt Ceiling Deal May Be NEGATIVE for Equities

By Andreas Steno

  • The debt ceiling deal marks the end of USD liquidity increases
  • The US Treasury will issue bills and bonds again soon withdrawing liquidity
  • Will the USD continue to surge while risk assets will suffer? 

China Recovery – Households

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • This is the second of three notes on China’s recovery.
  • Most, if not all, bullish consumer recovery scenarios have been based on the revenge spending model that analysts witnessed in other parts of the world.
  • There is no question that it is human to do things like recreation, shopping, and travel after three years of lockdowns.

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Cathay Pacific Airways, Uponor OYJ and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing
  • Circling Uponor

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The recent discrimination incident will likely affect traffic recovery pace of Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) negatively if it turns into a full-scale boycott by mainland passengers.
  • The scenario of CX becoming majority-owned by Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is getting increasingly possible. This may not be totally positive to CX given CA’s weaker service ranking.
  • Consensus forecasts now look somewhat bullish following the incident, and the stock’s 0.7x P/B does not stand out as attractive relative to history or ROE (7% in FY25F).

Circling Uponor

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Aliaxis SA (ALIVP BB) seeks market expansion and by offering a 55% premium (€25.75/share,10.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA) it’s quickly accumulated a 20% stake in Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH), whose Board isn’t engaging.
  • The shares trade c.7% above the offer on expectations of others suitors, but the stake already owned by Aliaxis should act as a deterrent. My fair value estimate (EV/EBITDA) is €27.09/share.
  • The share price implies 6.6% perpetuity growth (in a mature industry) on a conservative 11.5% WACC. Oras (25% stake) isn’t giving into temptation. Aliaxis’d be happy with another 30%.

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (29 May) – Yitai, AAG Energy, Hailan, InvoCare, Silk Laser, Toyo Construction

Merger Arb Mondays (29 May) – Yitai, AAG Energy, Hailan, InvoCare, Silk Laser, Toyo Construction

By Arun George

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May 29
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Piotech, Canon Inc, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, CCC Intelligent Solutions Hold and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • NVIDIA. Yikes! Have We Missed The Boat?
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Six Changes in June
  • Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance: Adds Starting to Outperform
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tech Leads the Way
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: ADR Premiums Surge to Near All-Time Highs on ‘Nvidia-Rally’
  • The Future of Insurance

NVIDIA. Yikes! Have We Missed The Boat?

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, down 13% from a year ago but up 19% sequentially and ~10% higher than the guided midpoint.
  • Current quarter outlook for revenues of $11 billion, a ~55% sequential increase, sparked mayhem in the markets and sent NVIDIA’s stock soaring over 24% in after hours trading
  • Don’t go chasing waterfalls, there are many other ways to rise with the tide

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Six Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 6 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
  • All the inclusions are also additions to the CSI 500 Index and the passive flows will come from multiple trackers.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last couple of weeks and there could be further outperformance over the next two weeks.

Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance

By Travis Lundy

  • 10 days ago Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced its 18th ¥50bn buyback in 15yrs. They have a pattern, both in execution and outperformance. 
  • Historically, they are reasonably aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. 
  • Here I look at both – buyback cycle performance and cycle outperformance. Good so far, and now I see a tactical trade but it’s not overwhelming.

CSI500 Index Rebalance: Adds Starting to Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 50 changes a side for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.
  • One way turnover at the rebalance is estimated at 9.45% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.93bn. The IT and Industrials sectors gain the most index spots.
  • 8 adds to the CSI 500 Index are deletes from the CSI 300 Index while 3 deletes from the CSI 500 Index are adds to the CSI 300 Index.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tech Leads the Way

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Taiwan Dual-Listings: ADR Premiums Surge to Near All-Time Highs on ‘Nvidia-Rally’

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • The semiconductor stock rally in the U.S. caused by Nvidia’s monster results and guidance last week has caused multiple ADR premiums to surge to near all-time highs.
  • TSMC and UMC’s ADR premiums don’t appear sustainable given their trading history.
  • Telecom CHT wasn’t affected by the Nvidia rally and now has one of the lowest ADR discounts in its history.

The Future of Insurance

By subSPAC

  • SPACs are often synonymous with high-risk, cash-intensive early-stage companies making their public debut, but occasionally, a SPAC deal like CCC Intelligent Solutions emerges and shifts the narrative.
  • CCC is a SaaS business with four decades of operational history in the property and casualty insurance sector that went public through a SPAC in 2021.
  • Over the company’s history, it has processed over $1 trillion in transactions for 30,000 businesses.

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Health Care: New Horizon Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • New Horizon Health (6606.HK) – What Makes a Really Good Story? Definitely Not Just Breakeven

New Horizon Health (6606.HK) – What Makes a Really Good Story? Definitely Not Just Breakeven

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • New Horizon Health (NHH) achieved high performance growth last year. However, we recommend investors take a calm and objective view of NHH’s current high growth rate if they see the real story.
  • NHH’s dual attributes of medical+consumption means large growth potential/strong profitability. Thus, the real expectation for NHH is not just about achieving breakeven, but more about how to achieve high profitablity.
  • If market education level falls short of expectations in the future, it’s difficult for NHH to achieve expected scale/profit margin. There would be greater valuation downward risk at that time.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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May 29
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Cathay Pacific Airways, Uponor OYJ and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing
  • Circling Uponor

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The recent discrimination incident will likely affect traffic recovery pace of Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) negatively if it turns into a full-scale boycott by mainland passengers.
  • The scenario of CX becoming majority-owned by Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is getting increasingly possible. This may not be totally positive to CX given CA’s weaker service ranking.
  • Consensus forecasts now look somewhat bullish following the incident, and the stock’s 0.7x P/B does not stand out as attractive relative to history or ROE (7% in FY25F).

Circling Uponor

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Aliaxis SA (ALIVP BB) seeks market expansion and by offering a 55% premium (€25.75/share,10.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA) it’s quickly accumulated a 20% stake in Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH), whose Board isn’t engaging.
  • The shares trade c.7% above the offer on expectations of others suitors, but the stake already owned by Aliaxis should act as a deterrent. My fair value estimate (EV/EBITDA) is €27.09/share.
  • The share price implies 6.6% perpetuity growth (in a mature industry) on a conservative 11.5% WACC. Oras (25% stake) isn’t giving into temptation. Aliaxis’d be happy with another 30%.

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Golden Eagle Retail, Rakuten, Tata Motors Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK): Controlling Family’s Privatisation Offer at HK$6.88
  • Weekly Deals Digest (28 May) – Rakuten, Growatt, JD Industrials, Toyo, Silk Laser, Penguin
  • Golden Eagle (3308 HK): Wang Family Delisting Offer
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan, Tata Motors ADR
  • Legislation to Promote Women Directors Is the Solution, but the Root Cause Is Why It Cannot Be Done

Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK): Controlling Family’s Privatisation Offer at HK$6.88

By Arun George

  • Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the controlling family at HK$6.88 per share, a 40.4% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$4.90 on 22 May).
  • Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake has provided an irrevocable. 
  • The offer price is final. The offer is reasonable particularly as the sentiment on the department store sector remains weak. This looks like a done deal. 

Weekly Deals Digest (28 May) – Rakuten, Growatt, JD Industrials, Toyo, Silk Laser, Penguin

By Arun George

Golden Eagle (3308 HK): Wang Family Delisting Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • PRC department store play Golden Eagle (3308 HK) has announced a privatisation offer, by way of a Scheme, at $6.88/share, a 40.41% premium to last close. The price is final.
  • The Offeror is the Wang family, Together with concert parties, they control 80.29%. 7.18% of the remaining 19.71% of the disinterested stakeholders have given an irrevocable. 
  • Apart from shareholder approval, there are no key regulatory approvals to be obtained. 

Morning Views Asia: Meituan, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Legislation to Promote Women Directors Is the Solution, but the Root Cause Is Why It Cannot Be Done

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The lack of laws mandating female directors and the absence of specific numerical targets for ％ female directors in Corporate Governance Code have slowed the increase in % female directors.
  • The lack of understanding of the value of ensuring diversity on the board on companies is serious, as only 9.1% of companies that disclosed skills-matrix adopted “diversity” as a criterion.
  • It should be a catalyst for companies to understand the value of ensuring diversity on their boards, not merely numbers-crunching that a company only needs to hire one female director.

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Financials: China Overseas Land & Investment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • COLI 688 HK – Value Emerging, the Only Pure Play in China Prop to Gain Mkt Share and Back to Growth

COLI 688 HK – Value Emerging, the Only Pure Play in China Prop to Gain Mkt Share and Back to Growth

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this insight, we explore the investment thesis and major share price drivers for 688 HK
  • COLI saw share price weakness, and is trading at 0.46x P/B.  Potential risks are 1) fail to meet 20% growth target 2) slower than expected land acquisition
  • We see value emerging from the stock, and recommend BUY as long as the stock trades below HKD20 (as a technical indicator)

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May 28
0

Daily Brief United States: Church & Dwight Co, Cloudflare , Fidelity National Info Serv, First Solar Inc, International Paper Co, Rockwell Automation, Sirius Xm Holdings, Snap Inc, Textron Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Church & Dwight Co: Capacity Expansion Update & Other Drivers
  • Cloudflare Inc.: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers
  • Fidelity National Information Services Inc.: Is The Recurring Revenue Growth in Banking and Capital Markets Here To Stay? – Key Drivers
  • First Solar Inc.: The Evolar AB Acquisition May Be Small But Is Key For Future Growth – Major Drivers
  • International Paper Company: How Long Will The Struggles Continue? – Key Drivers
  • Rockwell Automation: The Strategic Partnership with Autonox Robotics Could Be A Game Changer – Key Drivers
  • Sirius XM Holdings Inc.: Launch Of Sports-Focused Social Channels & Other Developments
  • Snap Inc.: Acquisition Of Th3rd For 3D Scanning Capabilities & Other Drivers
  • Textron Inc.: Major Contracts With The U.S

Church & Dwight Co: Capacity Expansion Update & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Church & Dwight had a particularly robust Q1 as the company reported solid revenue growth of 10.2% and an all-around beat.
  • The management exceeded its Q1 outlook with organic sales increasing by 5.7%, driven by more robust performance across multiple brands, including Hero, THERABREATH, ARM & HAMMER laundry, and ARM & HAMMER litter.
  • With encouraging signs such as flat volume growth after a series of declines, the company’s team anticipates volume growth throughout the year.

Cloudflare Inc.: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Q1 was a challenging quarter for Cloudflare as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street as a result of various the headwinds.
  • However, macroeconomic uncertainty lengthened sales cycles and affected close rates, resulting in a back-end weighted quarter.
  • Despite these challenges, Cloudflare remains resilient and profitable, with an operating profit of $19.4 million and generating $13.9 million of free cash flow.

Fidelity National Information Services Inc.: Is The Recurring Revenue Growth in Banking and Capital Markets Here To Stay? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fidelity National Info (FIS) had a successful start to 2023, surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • FIS experienced significant recurring revenue growth in their banking and capital markets businesses and impressive organic growth in their e-commerce segment.
  • We give Fidelity National Information Services a ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price.

First Solar Inc.: The Evolar AB Acquisition May Be Small But Is Key For Future Growth – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • First Solar had a very disappointing result in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • With their CadTel technology, vertically integrated manufacturing process, and commitment to Responsible Solar, First Solar could stand out from competitors and maintains long-term competitiveness.
  • The recent acquisition of the European perovskite company, Evolar AB was also a part of the expansion strategy.

International Paper Company: How Long Will The Struggles Continue? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • International Paper had a challenging start to 2023 as its revenue was slightly down though still above analyst expectations.
  • International Paper reported $65 million of year-over-year incremental earnings benefits from building better IP initiatives, but lower prices across their portfolio and weaker demand impacted margins.
  • Despite these challenges, International Paper remained focused on their key priorities of taking care of employees, customers and maximizing shareholder value.

Rockwell Automation: The Strategic Partnership with Autonox Robotics Could Be A Game Changer – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • It was a successful second quarter for Rockwell Automation, as the company outperformed market expectations in terms of both sales and earnings.
  • The company’s strong execution, focus on business resiliency, and improved electronic component availability contributed to double-digit sales and margin growth.
  • Despite the uncertain economic environment, Rockwell Automation’s differentiated offerings continued to experience robust demand, with organic sales surpassing expectations.

Sirius XM Holdings Inc.: Launch Of Sports-Focused Social Channels & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Sirius XM had a bad quarter and they failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Their launch of @SIRIUSXMSPORTS also enhances their social media presence and helps them to remain connected with subscribers and reach new audiences on Instagram.
  • We give Sirius XM Holdings a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Snap Inc.: Acquisition Of Th3rd For 3D Scanning Capabilities & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • It was a challenging yet promising quarter for Snap as it failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street but surprisingly managed to deliver a positive bottom-line.
  • Despite a 7% year-over-year decrease in revenue, the company reached 383 million daily active users in Q1 and showcased the community’s continued growth.
  • Snap introduced My AI, an AI-powered chatbot, and unveiled new features at the Snap Partner Summit, emphasizing their commitment to innovation.

Textron Inc.: Major Contracts With The U.S

By Baptista Research

  • It was a mixed first quarter for Textron as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street given the lower revenues observed at Bell.
  • Despite the Aviation, Industrial, and Systems segments offsetting the decline, Textron’s revenues were below expectations though it did manage an earnings beat.
  • Textron Aviation received an initial award on the US Navy Multi-engine Training System contract, and fleet utilization remained strong, contributing to aftermarket revenue growth.

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