Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
• With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.
• TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.

• Oryx Global Partners teams up with former Kenmare Resources MD Michael Carville for takeover bid
• Kenmare Resources operates moma titanium mine in Mozambique, one of the world’s largest producers
• Weak mineral sands market and political upheaval in Mozambique impact company’s operations and valuation, leading to potential takeover bid

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• The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
• The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

• Hanwha Energy, which is 100% owned by the Hanwha Group owner family members, has started the process of going public. Hanwha Energy could complete its IPO in 2025/2026. 
• One of the scenarios involving Hanwa Energy is that once it completes its IPO, it could merge with Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS). 
• Hanwha Energy generated revenue of 4.7 trillion won (up 20% YoY) and operating profit of 215 billion won (up 306.5% YoY). 

• Back on the 2nd Dec 2024, De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold projects, announced a merger with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
• Northern Star offered 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity upon a successful Scheme, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 16th April. Expected implementation on the 5th May. The IE (KPMG) says fair & reasonable.

• For the week ending 07/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices surged by 14.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and supply constraints.
• Henry Hub posted its biggest weekly gain since January, hitting a 26-month high during the week ending 07/Mar. Prices closed above the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
• Henry Hub OI PCR was 1.00 on 07/Mar, unchanged from 28/Feb. Call OI rose by 8.7% WoW, while put OI grew by 8.6%.

• WTI futures fell by 3.9% for the week ending 07/Mar, marking its seventh consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, rising U.S. crude inventories, and demand concerns.
• The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592, ending a five-week gain streak, with oil rigs unchanged at 486 and gas rigs down by one to 101.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.91 on 07/Mar from 0.98 on 28/Feb. Call OI increased by 13.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 5.3%.

• Geopolitical risk and central bank purchases continue to support gold demand, but rising Treasury yields present headwinds. Physical imports to the U.S. are plateauing, easing supply constraints.
• Gold prices are facing resistance at USD 3,000/oz, with technical indicators suggesting potential consolidation before further upside. Historical patterns indicate similar conditions led to stagnant prices.
• Gold leasing rates have normalized, signaling reduced supply stress. Previous spikes above 5% indicated a temporary supply shock, but the recent decline suggests a more balanced market.

• Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). 
• Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  
• We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.

• We maintain our Outperform recommendation on YPF. Shale Expansion, Export Capacity Growth Key to Long-Term Performance
• YPF posted weak 4Q24 results. Adjusted EBITDA dropping 38.6% QoQ and 22.5% YoY to $839 million, missing consensus by 19.7%.
• YPF reaffirmed confidence in its strategic execution, achieving key milestones in shale operations, mature fields divestments, and fuel pricing adjustments.