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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div – The Last Straw… and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div – The Last Straw…
  • Sunpower: Extension of CB’s Puts Focus Back on GI Business Fundamentals
  • Rakuten: 17% More Points in 2022
  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Rock Solid as Usual
  • Pokarna Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • Leoch [842]:  +225% EPS, 5G Play, 4x P/E, 6% Dividend, Inflection Point
  • Yum China: Looking Delicious with Record Profits Expected in 1Q23 and Potential for Further Growth
  • Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) – Transforming with a Digital Core
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelting Upwards
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Don’t Look Back, Look Forward

Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div – The Last Straw…

By Mark Chadwick

  • Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff
  • Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE
  • We expect a major profit decline=>div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. 

Sunpower: Extension of CB’s Puts Focus Back on GI Business Fundamentals

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) announced it agreed to a 2-year extension of its CBs with two Chinese P/E funds that have been supporting it since 2017
  • The extension is unexpectedly favorable to Sunpower equity holders and removes a major overhang
  • After two difficult years with spiking coal prices and rolling lockdowns in China, the company can finally be valued on the merits of its GI business once again

Rakuten: 17% More Points in 2022

By Michael Causton

  • Loyalty points offer a significant incentive for consumers when deciding where to buy and many surveys confirm that points are a key factor in selection of online store.  
  • With inflation biting, the big loyalty programmes are promoting points as a way to save on future purchases.
  • Rakuten is by far the largest provider (10 pts above anyone else) and is enjoying strong growth – which could help adoption of its mobile store.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Rock Solid as Usual

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Core earnings of Kunlun Energy (135 HK) rose 25.2% in FY22, providing solid evidence for its strength against peers. We are delighted to see dollar margin even expanded 4.1%.
  • Pace of new project addition has not weakened as it secured 25 new projects in FY22. Collectively, they will increase sales volume by 3.2bn cu.m., 7% of FY22 volume.
  • Net cash of Rmb13.6bn equals 28% of share price, making 8.9% ROE look decent. Market earnings forecast is too low; and even so, it trades on just 7.2x FY23 PER.

Pokarna Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Pokarna Ltd (POKR IN) is principally engaged in the business of quarrying, manufacturing & processing and selling of Granite & manufacturing and selling of Apparel under the brand name ‘Stanza’.
  • One of the key audit matters related to IT systems risk, and these are reflected by some of the accounting misclassifications.
  • Other forensic concerns include high cost of debt on and ICDs and director loans, added WC burden, inventory valuation, etc.

Leoch [842]:  +225% EPS, 5G Play, 4x P/E, 6% Dividend, Inflection Point

By Evaluate Research

  • Capital Expenditure – New Investment in Mexico Plant in 2023
  • The company achieved a solid performance in its Recycled Lead business and Power Solutions business with a revenue growth of 18% and 13%, respectively, as compared to 2021.
  • The revenue for Recycled Lead business and Power Solutions business was RMB2,413 million and RMB10,433 million respectively. 

Yum China: Looking Delicious with Record Profits Expected in 1Q23 and Potential for Further Growth

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Chinese restaurant sector could see 15% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2023, as Total Retail Sales of Meals in China rose 16.4% YoY during Jan-Feb 2023.
  • Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)‘s 1Q23 OP may reach a record high of $350m, and annual profitability is expected to double as restaurant footfall recovers.
  • We suggest buying Yum China for potential multiple expansion due to rapid profitability growth.

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) – Transforming with a Digital Core

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) results reflect a company increasingly digital in nature with legacy services fading away and an increasing focus on building both quality infrastructure and subscribers. 
  • Despite losing subscribers last year, customer data consumption picked up and the ARPUs also improved reflecting a more profitable subscriber base. Indihome continues to see growth in its customer base.
  • Telkom continues to strengthen its presence in the cloud business and data centres as future growth drivers. Valuations are attractive versus historical levels with strong growth prospects ahead. 

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelting Upwards

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked an impressive set of numbers significantly above consensus with net profit increasing +117% YoY driven by strong performance across all segments.
  • Trading & Distribution will be driven by both the demand for petroleum products together with chemicals, especially from the increasing number of smelters in Indonesia, both for copper and nickel.
  • JIIPE industrial estate booked 44.5 ha of sales, above guidance, with expectations for 70-75 hectares of land sales this year. Valuations are significantly below the historical average and consensus low.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Don’t Look Back, Look Forward

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • FY22 is definitely bad for Shenzhen International (152 HK) given the 64.9% profit plunge. However, negative contributors like Shenzhen Airlines and exchange losses will be removed in this year.
  • Earnings for Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) will improve and 1Q23 has witnessed good traffic recovery. Logistics profit will benefit from higher occupancy, REIT issuance and new projects.
  • Upside will come from logistics park transformation with profit from Yicheng Qiwanli pre-sale potentially to be booked. Consensus earnings forecast of HK$4.1bn is at low-end of our estimate. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Japan Real Estate Investment, Areit (AyalaLand REIT), Thai Life Insurance, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As, Afrexim Bank, Bumi Serpong Damai, CK Asset Holdings, INVESCO Asia Trust PLC, Hywin Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) : Offering Could Be a Catalyst for Outperformance Vs Peers
  • AREIT Placement – Parent Is Buying High and Selling Low
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark
  • Garanti: Strong Results, Reiterate BUY on the USD 6.125% Tier 2
  • Japan Real Estate Investment Corp Placement – An Acquisition Out of the Blue
  • AFREXI: Buy the 4.125% of 2024
  • BSDE IJ: Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak 1H18
  • CK Asset Holdings: Active Capital Management Deserves Re-Rating
  • Invesco Asia Trust – Conviction pays off
  • Hywin [HYW]: +18% Sales, 43% Net Cash, 5x P/E, 18% FCF Yield, Secular Growth

Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) : Offering Could Be a Catalyst for Outperformance Vs Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Today after market close, one of Japan’s largest office JREITs Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) announced a US$150mn follow-on equity offering to fund their recent acquisition of two properties.
  • The primary offer quantity will be 35,200 units and there is an over-allotment quantity of 2,464 units.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at the details of this offering and the potential of this offering to trigger strong secondary market performance in the following weeks.

AREIT Placement – Parent Is Buying High and Selling Low

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM) aims to raise around US$121m via selling around 11% of Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM).
  • Ayala Land and AREIT have been moving towards concluding an asset for shares swap that had been in the works for a while. This placement appears to stem from that.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.
  • Based on the latest available data, I expect 2 ADDs/DELs but there are couple of names close to the border and final rankings could change with changes in share prices.
  • The three-month reference period used for the June 2023 rebalance will end on 31st May 2022.

Garanti: Strong Results, Reiterate BUY on the USD 6.125% Tier 2

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1946, Turkiye Garanti Bank (Garanti) is Turkey’s second-largest private bank.
  • As of June, 30 2017, it reported consolidated assets of TRY 335,942 MM, aided by a pioneering position in all lines of business by pursuing a profitable and sustainable growth strategy.
  • Garanti is an integrated financial services group that operates in the corporate, commercial, SME, payment systems, retail, private and investment banking sectors, along with its subsidiaries in pension and life insurance, leasing, factoring, brokerage, and asset management.

Japan Real Estate Investment Corp Placement – An Acquisition Out of the Blue

By Ethan Aw

  • Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) is looking to raise around US$140m (JPY18.3bn) through a follow-on offering to acquire one new property and an additional co-ownership interest in another property.
  • The deal is a large one to digest at 10 days of three month ADV while there will be a dilution of approximately 2.7% of TSO (assuming overallotment option exercised). 
  • In this note, we will look at the assets to be acquired, impact on forecast and portfolio, and run the deal through our framework.

AFREXI: Buy the 4.125% of 2024

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1993 and headquartered in Cairo (Egypt), the African Export-Import Bank (“AFREXI”) is a sub-regional Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) that was established by its then 27 member states (now 44 countries) to promote intra-African and extra-African trade.
  • The bank is universally recognised as an MDB under Article 102 of the United Nations Charter and enjoys supranational status in all its member states.
  • Being an MDB accords AFREXI certain rights and privileges not accorded to normal financial institutions within its member countries.

BSDE IJ: Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak 1H18

By BOS Research

  • Earnings fall 80% YoY on slow revenue recognition, higher interest expense and FX loss. 1H18 presales momentum remains strong.
  • TP lowered to IDR2,000, valuations look undemanding.
  • With a vast and low cost landbank centred on its BSD City township, BSDE offers attractive exposure to Indonesia’s long term growth in property demand, especially in the wealthy Greater Jakarta region.

CK Asset Holdings: Active Capital Management Deserves Re-Rating

By BOS Research

  • Core profits +13% y/y due to contribution from newly acquired infrastructure & utility business
  • Recurring income +38%, growing ahead of management target and supporting dividend growth
  • Strong balance sheet support further share buyback and acquisition.

Invesco Asia Trust – Conviction pays off

By Edison Investment Research

Leaning into opportunities in China, along with stock selection in India, Korea and Hong Kong, has contributed positively to performance. The fund is ahead of its Asian closed-ended peers on an NAV total return (TR) basis for the year to end-February 2023 and over the long term it continues to generate a double-digit annualised NAV TR (c 10% in sterling over the past 10 years), supported by consistent income. IAT pays a regular six-monthly dividend equivalent to 2% of NAV (4% pa). The managers, Ian Hargreaves and Fiona Yang, target double-digit annualised returns from each portfolio holding over a rolling three-year period.


Hywin [HYW]: +18% Sales, 43% Net Cash, 5x P/E, 18% FCF Yield, Secular Growth

By Evaluate Research

  • Operating Income +15.5% YoY [excluding Healthcare expenses, up +21.2% YoY], with solid cost discipline and expense control
  • Net Income rose fractionally 0.3%, impacted by Healthcare initial ramp-up expenses, and other one-time non-recurring charges
  • Net Cash [zero debt, and not including restricted cash/client deposits] increased of RMB536 million [$83 million], or $2.85 per ADR equalling 43% of the stock price

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Daily Brief Consumer: United Malt Group Ltd, Trial Holdings, Rakuten, Yum China Holdings, Inc, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Trip.com, Mission Marketing Group Plc/Th and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • United Malt: Malteries Soufflet’s Non-Binding Proposal
  • Trial Holdings IPO – Sector Lagging Margins Warrant a Discount
  • Rakuten: 17% More Points in 2022
  • Yum China: Looking Delicious with Record Profits Expected in 1Q23 and Potential for Further Growth
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group: Adjusting for Bonus Shares
  • TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023
  • The MISSION Group – FY25 operating income target of £100m

United Malt: Malteries Soufflet’s Non-Binding Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) has granted privately-held Fench rival Malteries Soufflet due diligence on an exclusive basis after receiving an indicative Offer by way of a Scheme.
  • Malteries Soufflet’s non-binding proposal for the Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU)-spin-off of $5.00/share is a 45.3% premium to undisturbed.
  • The Offer will be subject to FIRB approval. Malteries Soufflet and United Malt are the second and fourth-largest maltsters in the world.

Trial Holdings IPO – Sector Lagging Margins Warrant a Discount

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise up to US$393m in its Japan IPO.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO price range

Rakuten: 17% More Points in 2022

By Michael Causton

  • Loyalty points offer a significant incentive for consumers when deciding where to buy and many surveys confirm that points are a key factor in selection of online store.  
  • With inflation biting, the big loyalty programmes are promoting points as a way to save on future purchases.
  • Rakuten is by far the largest provider (10 pts above anyone else) and is enjoying strong growth – which could help adoption of its mobile store.

Yum China: Looking Delicious with Record Profits Expected in 1Q23 and Potential for Further Growth

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Chinese restaurant sector could see 15% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2023, as Total Retail Sales of Meals in China rose 16.4% YoY during Jan-Feb 2023.
  • Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)‘s 1Q23 OP may reach a record high of $350m, and annual profitability is expected to double as restaurant footfall recovers.
  • We suggest buying Yum China for potential multiple expansion due to rapid profitability growth.

Guangzhou Automobile Group: Adjusting for Bonus Shares

By BOS Research

  • The company declared bonus shares of 40% during the annual results announcement in Mar, with shareholders issued 4 shares for every 10 shares by way of conversion of capital reserve.
  • The stock went ex-dividend on 1 June 2018.
  • Primarily as a result, we have adjusted our target price for the stock to HKD11.3 (from HKD16.3).

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels
  • Given constrained outbound air capacity, we’re surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY
  • If planes don’t begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China’s travel recovery 

The MISSION Group – FY25 operating income target of £100m

By Edison Investment Research

The MISSION Group’s FY22 results are in line with the year-end trading update at the operating income level and a little ahead at the headline PBT and EPS level. Organic revenue growth of 6% was boosted to +10% by acquisition, with a headline operating margin of 10.9%, a shade behind the prior year figure of 11.1% reflecting well-documented cost pressures. The group has been extending its offering through acquisition and organic growth, with a particular focus on data, digital and social media. Management aspires to reach £100m of operating income by FY25, with margin improvements as it reaps the benefits of scale. FY23 has reportedly started well, with further new client wins. The shares continue to trade at a substantial discount to peers, which we regard as overstated.


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Daily Brief Macro: Financial Stresses a Potential Drag on Asian Economic Prospects and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Financial Stresses a Potential Drag on Asian Economic Prospects
  • Navigating Turbulent Markets: The Need for Advanced Risk Management Tools in Private Asset Investing
  • Thai General Elections a Potential Turning Point?
  • MOVE Vs. VIX: Hard Data Showing that Equity Markets Are at Risk!
  • CX Daily: Chinese Auto Makers Rev Up Price War in Race for Market Dominance
  • CX Daily: Alibaba Splits Into Six Business Units in Sweeping Overhaul

Financial Stresses a Potential Drag on Asian Economic Prospects

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • As investors and businesses reposition themselves in the new asset pricing regime, there will be more episodes of market stress.  
  • Preliminary PMI figures for advanced markets show that short-term reactions in real economic activity have been muted; Business optimism is still holding up.
  • Shifts in sentiment and positions will have consequences for Asian capital spending, currencies, and trade. But we expect overall resilience to hold up. 

Navigating Turbulent Markets: The Need for Advanced Risk Management Tools in Private Asset Investing

By Albert Maass

  • Amid market volatility and economic uncertainty, advanced risk management tools are essential for investors in private asset investing to minimize potential losses and maximise returns.
  • Effective risk management for private assets requires thorough due diligence and advanced financial models, such as factor models, to manage risks across diverse assets.
  • Integrating public and private assets in risk management and portfolio optimization enables investors to better appraise risks and achieve their goals while adhering to their risk tolerance.

Thai General Elections a Potential Turning Point?

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Elections are slated for mid-May. The once anti-establishment Pheu Thai party is leading in voter surveys. Pro-establishment parties Palang Pracharath and the Democrats are on the backfoot.
  • The most likely outcome is that Pheu Thai wins a plurality of parliamentary seats, and forms a coalition with pro-establishment parties.
  • Thailand thus has a chance to leave behind a decade of political paralysis. But even with that, daunting economic challenges await the new government.

MOVE Vs. VIX: Hard Data Showing that Equity Markets Are at Risk!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The MOVE/VIX ratio has spiked to its highest level since 2005.
  • When high MOVE/VIX ratio levels are driven predominantly by an increase in Treasury market volatility, things look ugly for equities.
  • When the MOVE/VIX ratio tops 7.0, driven by an elevated MOVE Index, US equities have underperformed US Treasuries by almost 6% in the next three months.

CX Daily: Chinese Auto Makers Rev Up Price War in Race for Market Dominance

By Caixin Global

  • Cover Story: Chinese automakers rev up price war in race for market dominance

  • China will do more to open its markets, vice premier says

  • China invites Honduras president to visit after establishing diplomatic ties


CX Daily: Alibaba Splits Into Six Business Units in Sweeping Overhaul

By Caixin Global

  • Alibaba / Alibaba splits into six business units in sweeping overhaul

  • Corruption / Exclusive: Former Exim Bank executive pleads guilty to taking bribes

  • Crackdown / China’s cyberspace watchdog takes aim at slander against businesses


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Daily Brief Industrials: Toyo Construction, Golden Energy & Resources, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Sunpower Group, Leoch International Technology, AKR Corporindo, Shenzhen International, MillerKnoll, Roper Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction (1890) Tries a Different Tactic – FEFTA!
  • Golden Energy: Dian Swastatika Goes To Vote. Nothing To See Here
  • Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div – The Last Straw…
  • Sunpower: Extension of CB’s Puts Focus Back on GI Business Fundamentals
  • Leoch [842]:  +225% EPS, 5G Play, 4x P/E, 6% Dividend, Inflection Point
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelting Upwards
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Don’t Look Back, Look Forward
  • 3QFY23 Adjusted EPS Beats but Revenues Miss; 4QFY23 Guidance Disappoints
  • Roper Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Roper Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth Strategy & Key Drivers

Toyo Construction (1890) Tries a Different Tactic – FEFTA!

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, Reuters is reporting that Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has asked the Japanese government to investigate alleged breaches of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act by YFO. 
  • Why? The Very Japanese family office of Nintendo’s founding family used Cayman entities to purchase Toyo shares and Toyo was re-labeled as having businesses in “Core Sectors” in October 2021.
  • Toyo has also repeated its complaint about changed “intentions” on large shareholder filings. That bit of the complaint is 10 months old. A closer look at the details within.

Golden Energy: Dian Swastatika Goes To Vote. Nothing To See Here

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dian Swastatika (DSSA IJ) shareholders will vote on the in-specie distribution of Golden Energy Mines and the exit offer of Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP) on the 2 May.
  • This requires a simple majority vote, and the Widjaja family-controlled PT Sinar Mas Tunggal holds 59.9% in DSSA. This is rubber-stamped.
  • For what it’s worth, DSSA’s “independent advisors” concluded the Offer is fair. To the Widjaja family as majority owners, it most certainly is. To the DSSA minority shareholders… 👀

Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div – The Last Straw…

By Mark Chadwick

  • Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff
  • Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE
  • We expect a major profit decline=>div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. 

Sunpower: Extension of CB’s Puts Focus Back on GI Business Fundamentals

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) announced it agreed to a 2-year extension of its CBs with two Chinese P/E funds that have been supporting it since 2017
  • The extension is unexpectedly favorable to Sunpower equity holders and removes a major overhang
  • After two difficult years with spiking coal prices and rolling lockdowns in China, the company can finally be valued on the merits of its GI business once again

Leoch [842]:  +225% EPS, 5G Play, 4x P/E, 6% Dividend, Inflection Point

By Evaluate Research

  • Capital Expenditure – New Investment in Mexico Plant in 2023
  • The company achieved a solid performance in its Recycled Lead business and Power Solutions business with a revenue growth of 18% and 13%, respectively, as compared to 2021.
  • The revenue for Recycled Lead business and Power Solutions business was RMB2,413 million and RMB10,433 million respectively. 

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelting Upwards

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked an impressive set of numbers significantly above consensus with net profit increasing +117% YoY driven by strong performance across all segments.
  • Trading & Distribution will be driven by both the demand for petroleum products together with chemicals, especially from the increasing number of smelters in Indonesia, both for copper and nickel.
  • JIIPE industrial estate booked 44.5 ha of sales, above guidance, with expectations for 70-75 hectares of land sales this year. Valuations are significantly below the historical average and consensus low.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Don’t Look Back, Look Forward

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • FY22 is definitely bad for Shenzhen International (152 HK) given the 64.9% profit plunge. However, negative contributors like Shenzhen Airlines and exchange losses will be removed in this year.
  • Earnings for Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) will improve and 1Q23 has witnessed good traffic recovery. Logistics profit will benefit from higher occupancy, REIT issuance and new projects.
  • Upside will come from logistics park transformation with profit from Yicheng Qiwanli pre-sale potentially to be booked. Consensus earnings forecast of HK$4.1bn is at low-end of our estimate. 

3QFY23 Adjusted EPS Beats but Revenues Miss; 4QFY23 Guidance Disappoints

By Water Tower Research

  • After market close Wednesday, March 22, MillerKnoll reported 3QFY23 adjusted EPS of $0.54, $0.12 higher than our estimate and consensus.
  • GAAP EPS of $0.01 missed by $0.31, caused primarily by a $37.2 million charge for closing Fully, a Knoll brand.
  • 3QFY23 revenues of $985 million missed our estimate by ~$20 million.

Roper Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Roper Technologies is a diversified software and tech investment player.
  • The company makes pertinent investments in technology companies with a high base of cash and negative working capital with the objective of maximizing the returns on the capital employed.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

Roper Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Roper Technologies, a diversified software and tech investment company.
  • The company ended 2022 on a positive note with revenue of over $1.4 billion, up 14% higher than the prior year.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Roper Technologies, Inc. with a ‘Hold’ rating.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Toyo Construction, Golden Energy & Resources, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Sunpower Group, Leoch International Technology, AKR Corporindo, Shenzhen International, MillerKnoll, Roper Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction (1890) Tries a Different Tactic – FEFTA!
  • Golden Energy: Dian Swastatika Goes To Vote. Nothing To See Here
  • Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div – The Last Straw…
  • Sunpower: Extension of CB’s Puts Focus Back on GI Business Fundamentals
  • Leoch [842]:  +225% EPS, 5G Play, 4x P/E, 6% Dividend, Inflection Point
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelting Upwards
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Don’t Look Back, Look Forward
  • 3QFY23 Adjusted EPS Beats but Revenues Miss; 4QFY23 Guidance Disappoints
  • Roper Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Roper Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth Strategy & Key Drivers

Toyo Construction (1890) Tries a Different Tactic – FEFTA!

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, Reuters is reporting that Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has asked the Japanese government to investigate alleged breaches of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act by YFO. 
  • Why? The Very Japanese family office of Nintendo’s founding family used Cayman entities to purchase Toyo shares and Toyo was re-labeled as having businesses in “Core Sectors” in October 2021.
  • Toyo has also repeated its complaint about changed “intentions” on large shareholder filings. That bit of the complaint is 10 months old. A closer look at the details within.

Golden Energy: Dian Swastatika Goes To Vote. Nothing To See Here

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dian Swastatika (DSSA IJ) shareholders will vote on the in-specie distribution of Golden Energy Mines and the exit offer of Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP) on the 2 May.
  • This requires a simple majority vote, and the Widjaja family-controlled PT Sinar Mas Tunggal holds 59.9% in DSSA. This is rubber-stamped.
  • For what it’s worth, DSSA’s “independent advisors” concluded the Offer is fair. To the Widjaja family as majority owners, it most certainly is. To the DSSA minority shareholders… 👀

Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div – The Last Straw…

By Mark Chadwick

  • Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff
  • Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE
  • We expect a major profit decline=>div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. 

Sunpower: Extension of CB’s Puts Focus Back on GI Business Fundamentals

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) announced it agreed to a 2-year extension of its CBs with two Chinese P/E funds that have been supporting it since 2017
  • The extension is unexpectedly favorable to Sunpower equity holders and removes a major overhang
  • After two difficult years with spiking coal prices and rolling lockdowns in China, the company can finally be valued on the merits of its GI business once again

Leoch [842]:  +225% EPS, 5G Play, 4x P/E, 6% Dividend, Inflection Point

By Evaluate Research

  • Capital Expenditure – New Investment in Mexico Plant in 2023
  • The company achieved a solid performance in its Recycled Lead business and Power Solutions business with a revenue growth of 18% and 13%, respectively, as compared to 2021.
  • The revenue for Recycled Lead business and Power Solutions business was RMB2,413 million and RMB10,433 million respectively. 

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelting Upwards

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked an impressive set of numbers significantly above consensus with net profit increasing +117% YoY driven by strong performance across all segments.
  • Trading & Distribution will be driven by both the demand for petroleum products together with chemicals, especially from the increasing number of smelters in Indonesia, both for copper and nickel.
  • JIIPE industrial estate booked 44.5 ha of sales, above guidance, with expectations for 70-75 hectares of land sales this year. Valuations are significantly below the historical average and consensus low.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Don’t Look Back, Look Forward

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • FY22 is definitely bad for Shenzhen International (152 HK) given the 64.9% profit plunge. However, negative contributors like Shenzhen Airlines and exchange losses will be removed in this year.
  • Earnings for Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) will improve and 1Q23 has witnessed good traffic recovery. Logistics profit will benefit from higher occupancy, REIT issuance and new projects.
  • Upside will come from logistics park transformation with profit from Yicheng Qiwanli pre-sale potentially to be booked. Consensus earnings forecast of HK$4.1bn is at low-end of our estimate. 

3QFY23 Adjusted EPS Beats but Revenues Miss; 4QFY23 Guidance Disappoints

By Water Tower Research

  • After market close Wednesday, March 22, MillerKnoll reported 3QFY23 adjusted EPS of $0.54, $0.12 higher than our estimate and consensus.
  • GAAP EPS of $0.01 missed by $0.31, caused primarily by a $37.2 million charge for closing Fully, a Knoll brand.
  • 3QFY23 revenues of $985 million missed our estimate by ~$20 million.

Roper Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Roper Technologies is a diversified software and tech investment player.
  • The company makes pertinent investments in technology companies with a high base of cash and negative working capital with the objective of maximizing the returns on the capital employed.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

Roper Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Roper Technologies, a diversified software and tech investment company.
  • The company ended 2022 on a positive note with revenue of over $1.4 billion, up 14% higher than the prior year.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Roper Technologies, Inc. with a ‘Hold’ rating.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Hugel Inc, Terumo Corp, Iqvia Holdings, CanSino Biologics Inc, Sipai Health Technology, Aft Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea FSC Officially Eases a Major Hurdle for a Tender Offer: Names to Watch
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Sequential Decline Expected in Q4; Stronger Yen to Weigh on Performance
  • IQVIA Holdings Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results – It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects
  • IQVIA Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Acquisitions & Key Drivers
  • Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) – Unjustified Valuation and Problematic Business Model
  • AFT Pharmaceuticals – Maxigesic international momentum continues

Korea FSC Officially Eases a Major Hurdle for a Tender Offer: Names to Watch

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea FSC will accept financial institutions’ LOC and LPs’ investment performance agreements as certifying documents for securing funds. This revision will be effective right from April 1 this year.
  • The impact from a preemptive trading perspective is likely to be significant. Additional stake purchases through tender offers will increase more aggressively, particularly when purchasing shares from the majority shareholder.
  • We should first pay attention to companies where private equity (PE) is the largest shareholder whose stake is relatively low (less than 50%): Hugel, Hana Tour Service, & Hanssem

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Sequential Decline Expected in Q4; Stronger Yen to Weigh on Performance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) raised FY23 revenue guidance due to greater than expected depreciation of Yen. However, excluding Fx, revenue growth expectation has been lowered to 5% from 6% earlier.
  • New guidance implies Q4FY23 revenue of ¥197B (-8% QoQ) and operating profit of ¥28.5B (-24% QoQ). Terumo assumed exchange rate of ¥130/USD for Q4FY23, similar level realized in Q1FY23.
  • Terumo has reduced FY23 operating and net profit guidance by ¥10B and ¥8.5B, respectively due to higher-than-expected inflation. Excluding Fx, operating profit is expected to decline 2% in FY23.

IQVIA Holdings Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • IQVIA Holdings is an global healthcare-tech major providing services to the clinical research and health information technology sectors.
  • In partnership with Tasso, they have launched the first self-collection safety lab panel for clinical trial participants in the United States, enhancing their decentralized clinical trial capabilities.
  • Our focus is on analyzing the financial strength and the debt servicing capability of the company and the analysis does not differentiate among debt instruments.

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results – It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The investment logic of vaccine companies is different that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on big vaccine varieties.
  • The most fatal problem of CanSino is that there’re no other blockbuster varieties except COVID-19 vaccine. So, either CanSino develops a big variety,or it would gradually enter a vicious circle.
  • CanSino’s current valuation is at a low level. Even with many negative factors, that doesn’t mean CanSino’s stock price won’t rebound. 

IQVIA Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Acquisitions & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on an IQVIA Holdings, an international player providing services to the clinical research and health information technology sectors.
  • IQVIA expanded access to clinical research.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of IQVIA Holdings Inc. with a ‘Buy’ rating.

Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) – Unjustified Valuation and Problematic Business Model

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The sustainability/stability of Sipai’s performance and growth potential are worrying. Sipai doesn’t have a business with core competitiveness as its foundation, thus leading to potential problems in its business model.
  • It is useless to have fast revenue growth because Sipai’s profitability is very weak, which is actually closely related to its business characteristics. Sipai is far from being breakeven.
  • Sipai is overvalued. Such high valuation is not reasonable based on our analysis. We are conservative about Sipai’s outlook and we think there are much better investment opportunities.

AFT Pharmaceuticals – Maxigesic international momentum continues

By Edison Investment Research

AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT) has announced that it has signed three additional licensing agreements for Maxigesic IV – with Labatec in Switzerland and Pharma Bavaria in Argentina and Paraguay. The product franchise continues its international expansion, with the deals following the recent launches of Maxigesic IV in five European countries. To date (FY23, ending 31 March) AFT’s flagship product, Maxigesic, is available in 61 countries (across all dose forms), up 15 from the prior year. This is marginally lower than the target of 63 countries for FY23, but the company also announced achieving its first product registration in China with Crystawash Extend, its long-lasting sanitiser. China launches are generally highly sought after, and this announcement should provide access to the larger offline retail and hospitals segments (c 75% of the over-the-counter (OTC) market in China). Currently AFT only has an online retail presence in China (under the Cross Border E-Commerce OTC scheme).


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Most Read: Toshiba Corp, Japan Airlines, Meituan, S.M.Entertainment Co, Toyo Construction, Rakuten Bank, Sun Kwang, Nitori Holdings, Cosmo Energy Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Meituan Dividend – The US$17bn Overhang Is Here – Not All Shares in CCASS, Here We Go Again!
  • Toshiba – Thoughts On The Tender Opinion
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday
  • Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling
  • SM Entertainment: Tender Offer Allocation Ratios Announced
  • Toyo Construction (1890) Plays Offence – A New Mid-Term Mgmt Plan with High Shareholder Payout
  • Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank
  • Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses
  • Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On

Tencent Meituan Dividend – The US$17bn Overhang Is Here – Not All Shares in CCASS, Here We Go Again!

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
  • At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn
  • We have covered the background of the event in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the recent updates.

Toshiba – Thoughts On The Tender Opinion

By Mio Kato

  • Toshiba released documents on the tender and a notice that the FY end dividend would be cancelled shortly after our last report was published. 
  • They are interesting in that the Special Committee’s opinions are relatively frank but details on the valuation process are almost non-existent. 
  • In addition, the information regarding other bids and alternatives was a little surprising to us.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday

By Brian Freitas


Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling

By Brian Freitas


SM Entertainment: Tender Offer Allocation Ratios Announced

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Investment & Securities announced the final competition rate for the tender offer of SM Entertainment by Kakao Group (8,333,641 shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share).
  • The competition ratio of the tender offer was 2.2655436 to 1. Accordingly, the allocation ratio was set at 44.1395170%. 
  • At the current price of 95,100 won, SM Entertainment’s shares are undervalued by about 25% to 45% over the next 6-12 months, in our view. 

Toyo Construction (1890) Plays Offence – A New Mid-Term Mgmt Plan with High Shareholder Payout

By Travis Lundy

  • YFO continues its fight on Board governance. Toyo Construction has shifted so the Board and a Special Committee will now examine the input Toyo says YFO has not provided. 
  • Toyo also objected because it said YFO’s bid could not be sustained based on Toyo’s economics. Toyo’s fight should have been offence. With a new Medium-Term Management Plan, it is.
  • Toyo now promises strong revenue and double digit OP growth, and a ¥50/share (5.3%) dividend. Toyo is trying to pay off shareholders to support it against YFO. That’s fair/good.

Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank

By Arun George


Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • NICE I&S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
  • If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant’s transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE’s GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).
  • As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
  • There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.
  • Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.

Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
  • The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
  • Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.

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Daily Brief India: Patanjali Foods, Home First Finance, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Patanjali Foods Early FPO Look – Lifting the Overhang with a Well Flagged Deal. Re-Listing Went Well
  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | The Bounce Mystery & Way Forward
  • Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India and US Momentum to Improve Margin and Drive Growth

Patanjali Foods Early FPO Look – Lifting the Overhang with a Well Flagged Deal. Re-Listing Went Well

By Clarence Chu

  • The promoters of Patanjali Foods (PATANJAL IN) are looking to increase the firm’s public shareholding to the minimum required 25% imposed by SEBI.
  • We had discussed about this in their effective re-listing FPO last year, and the deal has been well covered by media sources as well, thus it is very well flagged.
  • While it would be a large one to digest, representing at least 62.1 days of the firm’s three month ADV, the deal will lift the remaining overhang on the stock.

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | The Bounce Mystery & Way Forward

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) lends to a customer segment exposed to high income volatility.
  • Soft bounces are used by customers to manage their cash flow, with bounce charge collection done on a best-effort basis, management attitude towards financial discipline warrants attention. 
  • While there may not be any immediate asset quality issues, caution is warranted. 

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India and US Momentum to Improve Margin and Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) reported total revenue of INR43.6B, up by 20% YoY and 6% QoQ, in Q3FY23. Key markets, India and the U.S. continued to deliver robust performance.
  • U.S. business is on track to register QoQ growth in near-term, with the launches of new products. Zydus plans to launch 2–3 transdermal products in U.S. in FY24.
  • For its India business, the company aims to outperform the industry growth sustainably in the medium to long term. Lipaglyn is expected to be among top 25 products of India.

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Daily Brief China: Meituan, DPC Dash, Aag Energy Holdings, CK Hutchison Holdings, Yuzhou Group, Parkson Retail, Ping An Insurance (H), Tencent and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling
  • DPC Dash IPO Trading – Tepid Demand Even as Capital Group Tops Up
  • AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In
  • Tencent Meituan Dividend – All Shares in CCASS – More Pressure Now but Will Have a Shorter Overhang
  • [Meituan (3690 HK) Target Price Change]: Bracing for Douyin Impact with Limited War Chest
  • CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?
  • Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile
  • Parkson Retail: Positive 4Q SSS Growth, Overall SSS Growth Still Negative
  • Ping An: Reassuring New Business Pickup
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)

Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling

By Brian Freitas


DPC Dash IPO Trading – Tepid Demand Even as Capital Group Tops Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m, after pricing its IPO at the bottom-end. 
  • The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 604 stores across 17 cities, as of Feb 2023.
  • In this note, we talk about the subscription levels and trading dynamics.

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In

By Arun George

  • Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) noted that the pre-condition for Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) privatisation offer at HK$1.85 per share has been satisfied (which was expected). 
  • The gross spread has widened to 16.4% due to concerns that the recent solid FY22 results, lack of dividends and the skinny premium would nudge minorities to vote NO.
  • It remains unclear if the dissatisfied retail minorities have enough votes to block the scheme. The downside remains low as the shares are trading 5% below the undisturbed price. 

Tencent Meituan Dividend – All Shares in CCASS – More Pressure Now but Will Have a Shorter Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
  • At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares.
  • We have spoken about the background of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the overnight updates.

[Meituan (3690 HK) Target Price Change]: Bracing for Douyin Impact with Limited War Chest

By Shawn Yang

  • Meituan reported C4Q22 total revenue 4% higher than cons. Non-IFRS net margin beat cons. by 0.4ppt due to strong cost control during lockdowns.  
  • Meituan has limited options against Douyin’s fast expansion of new service categories and customized offerings. The competition against Douyin will continue to pressure the in-store business in the long run.
  • Maintain SELL and cut TP to HK$125. Our TP implies 3x PS, 10x PE and 1x PS for on-demand delivery, in-store, and new initiatives, respectively.

CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?

By BOS Research

  • In-depth presentation of retail digitalization raises expectation of retail spin-off. Asset disposals and increased DPS potential 2H catalysts
  • Limited impact from trade tensions; oil tailwind
  • Following 2 years of single-digit earnings growth, growth is likely to accelerate to double digit as headwinds from strong euro/GBP and weak oil prices eases and global economy continues to rebound.

Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile

By BOS Research

  • Yuzhou Properties Company Limited (Yuzhou) is a property developer that focuses on residential housing in West Strait Economic Zone and Yangtze River Delta.
  • The company has moved its headquarters to Shanghai from Xiamen.
  • The company has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since November 2009. As of 31 Mar 2017, market capitalization of Yuzhou stands at HKD12.4b (USD1.6b).

Parkson Retail: Positive 4Q SSS Growth, Overall SSS Growth Still Negative

By BOS Research

  • Parkson Retail Group Ltd (Parkson) is a department store operator with 19 years of operating history in China.
  • With an extensive network of 50 stores in 36 cities in China under the “Parkson” brand, the Group is one of the largest store operators.
  • It targets the middle- and mid-upper-end of the Chinese retail market, with most of its revenues derived from concessionaire sales (90% of total revenues), while direct sales account for the rest.

Ping An: Reassuring New Business Pickup

By BOS Research

  • Interim results beat with strong results across most business lines
  • Life insurance new business value growth reversed to positive growth in 2Q and should accelerate
  • Fair value trimmed to HKD98 but headwinds abating in 2H

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Last week complemented November 2022’s  bullish LT confirmation with a bullish MT confirmation, re-instating the MT uptrend after a period of correction in Feb/Mar.
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has likely entered the 2nd leg of a material MT uptrend. Q2 2023 target towards 451.95 (+25%).

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