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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Private Markets: Groww Tearsheet – Simplifying Investments and Savings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Groww Tearsheet – Simplifying Investments and Savings

Groww Tearsheet – Simplifying Investments and Savings

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Groww (1573648D IN) is a wealth management and investment platform designed to simplify investing especially for first-time investors. 
  • Channel feedback indicates Groww’s simple UI, and lower cost/fees as the primary reasons for them investing via the platform. 
  • Revenues have seen a COVID-led sharp jump, and growth with low marketing expenses and operational profitability offer a compelling narrative. 

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (July): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (July): Tencent, Li Auto, GCL

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (July): Tencent, Li Auto, GCL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine. We estimated that inflows to HK market were USD 1.7bn in July.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors. Inflows were driven by real estate, industrials, and communication services.
  • We highlight monthly flows of Tencent, Li Auto, GCL, Xiaomi, Meituan, GWM, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets new lows.
  • A50 weakness is weighing on HK. HSI clear break down will lead the upcoming risk off cycle in Asia.
  • We like adding to a short on upticks with near resistance at 20,500. 19,700 is the pivot support to break below that will open the way to 18,200.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022
  • Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts
  • HS Holdings (8699 JP) – Huge Q1, Even Better Q2 Ahead, The 2nd To Last Asset Sale… And a Pawnshop?
  • KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System
  • Minority Shareholders Go Activist on DB Hitek

Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Companies (Amendment) Act 2021 of the Cayman Islands (Amendment Act), which will come into force on 31 August 2022, will abolish the current ‘headcount test’.
  • Those companies incorporated in the Cayman Islands, and subject to a members’ Scheme of Arrangement, were previously required to satisfy the headcount test under section 86 of the Companies Act.
  • This development clarifies previous uncertainty/ambiguity which could arise, with ‘take private’ deals of Cayman-incorporated, Hong Kong-listed companies, where a Scheme is the favoured privatisation path.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the September rebalance of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
  • The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.
  • The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Blue Orca issued a damning short-seller report on Miniso (MNSO US) on the 25th of July 2022, stating that the company’s asset-light and high-margin franchise business is mostly a lie.
  • Miniso responded rather quickly but its response lacks evidence and does not do anything to contradict the facts presented by the short seller.
  • Thus, it is Miniso’s word against Blue Ocra’s facts and it is quite obvious which side investors should take.

HS Holdings (8699 JP) – Huge Q1, Even Better Q2 Ahead, The 2nd To Last Asset Sale… And a Pawnshop?

By Travis Lundy

  • Thursday post-close, HS announced Q1 earnings, and Khan Bank Q2 earnings. Both magnificent. Book Value is up HUGE, and combined HS Q1-Khan Q2 is ¥7.7bn – 20% of mkt cap.
  • On Friday 29 July, HS Holdings (8699 JP) announced it had sold HS Debt Collection Agency – the last “earning asset” except for the 55% stake in Khan Bank. 
  • This lifts shadow book value even higher… Deep value with a catalyst. BUT… in an otherwise unannounced postscript to Q1 earnings, HS announced it bought a stake in a… pawnshop?

KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System

By Douglas Kim

  • Hankyung Business Daily reported today that KT Corp (030200 KS) is close to selling its 36.9% controlling stake in Kt Submarine (060370 KS) to LS Cable & System.
  • Once the KT Submarine deal is completed, this could positively impact KT Corp’s dividends.
  • KT Corp’s selling of its controlling stake in KT Submarine would fit along its restructuring plans to sell off some businesses that are considered non-core.

Minority Shareholders Go Activist on DB Hitek

By Douglas Kim

  • The minority shareholders of DB Hitek have started to go activist on the company. They are initially requesting the company to get access to its shareholder list.
  • Many minority shareholders are suspicious that DB Inc may be trying to intentionally lower the share price of DB Hitek through a physical division split off.
  • DB Hitek’s share price has declined nearly 48% since its 52 week highs in January 2022. The valuation multiples of the company have declined to more attractive levels. 

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: A Pair Trade Between Emart & Coupang (Potential End of Mandatory Shut Down Rules for Hypermarkets) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • A Pair Trade Between Emart & Coupang (Potential End of Mandatory Shut Down Rules for Hypermarkets)
  • Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading
  • A Pair Trade Between Krafton & NCsoft (India’s Crackdown on Krafton’s BGMI)
  • Raffles Medical (RFMD SP): Stellar H1 Performance Driven by Resumption of Medical Tourism
  • HSBC – Tax Income Grossly Distorts
  • Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point
  • WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook
  • Discount Retail Gets Mainstream Support: Yaoko Expands Discount Supermarket
  • Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments
  • Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool and Carry On

A Pair Trade Between Emart & Coupang (Potential End of Mandatory Shut Down Rules for Hypermarkets)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between E Mart Inc (long) and Coupang (short). At current valuations and business outlook, we like the risk/reward of this pair trade.
  • The end of the mandatory shut down rules on major hypermarkets is likely to have a major positive impact on Emart and negative impact on Coupang and Kurly.
  • Although this has not been made into law, we think there is relatively high probability that this will eventually be made into law sometime this year. 

Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for August batch. More games were approved in August compared to July and June.
  • Pace of China game approval continued to pick up albeit at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease will be under increasing pressure as the duo continue to score zero in August, making it the fourth time with no games approved since resumption . 

A Pair Trade Between Krafton & NCsoft (India’s Crackdown on Krafton’s BGMI)

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, there have been numerous news accounts about the Indian government cracking down on Krafton’s Battlegrounds Mobile India (BGMI) game.
  • We believe there are several reasons why Indian government is cracking down on BGMI including concerns about this game potentially leading to greater violence among children and ties to Tencent.
  • At current valuation levels, we like a pair trade between Krafton (go short) and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) (go long).

Raffles Medical (RFMD SP): Stellar H1 Performance Driven by Resumption of Medical Tourism

By Tina Banerjee

  • Raffles Medical (RFMD SP) reported strong H1 2022 results, with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit. With the resumption of international travel, the company is seeing increasing patients.
  • While COVID-related revenue is declining, the company’s hospital business will benefit from the returning of foreign patients as well as resumption of elective surgeries for the domestic patients.
  • Raffles Medical has received the approval to set up an IVF clinic in Hainan province of China.

HSBC – Tax Income Grossly Distorts

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HSBC saw its net interest income rise substantially in the year, but it did not flow through
  • The delta in credit costs was one major negator to the bank’s higher core income
  • Tax expenses turned to tax income, is the ultimate distortion to net profit

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

By Aaron Gabin

  • Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22’s guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22’s outperformance.
  • Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22’s 7% leading to 3Q22’s 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.
  • AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • It seems that Mr Market was not satisfactory with WuXi AppTec’s 2022H1 performance. If excluding COVID-19 projects (which are regarded as a one-time increment), the performance growth was not high.
  • Considering that the CXO preliminary bid winning has declined largely in the US, domestic CXO would not begin to gradually reflect the slowdown of newly added orders until Q4.
  • We are concerned about WuXi AppTec’s performance in 2023. As an old generation CXO, it’s hard to achieve V-shaped rebound. So, 2022 is a good time to offload the Company.

Discount Retail Gets Mainstream Support: Yaoko Expands Discount Supermarket

By Michael Causton

  • Yaoko opened a discount supermarket last year and added a second in March, using knowhow acquired from the Ave chain it bought in 2017. 
  • The new store is purpose built to save costs and offer lower prices, and should prove popular as inflation rises, while delivering higher margins than supermarkets typically achieve.
  • The format stands in marked contrast to other discounters such as Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)’s Gyomu Super but both formats show that discounters can make more money than other supermarkets.

Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Texas Instruments delivered its third consecutive all-around beat in the recent result with a reported revenue of $5.21 billion this quarter.
  • Among major developments, Texas Instruments has recently broken the ground on the new semiconductor plants of 300-mm for water fabrication in Sherman, Texas.
  • Texas Instruments has a strong balance sheet and the management continues investing in building capacity.

Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool and Carry On

By Mark Chadwick

  • We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of Q1 results as we become less concerned about growth risks in China and the US
  • Peer results suggest that air conditioner demand is stronger than expected due to record high global temperatures
  • Company management has a good track record of pushing through price hikes and cutting costs. We expect the company to beat guidance this year

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Macro: Hong Kong: Worries About The Collapse Of The Currency Peg Are Overblown and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong: Worries About The Collapse Of The Currency Peg Are Overblown
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Jago, Meralco’s Sell-Down, and Unilever Indonesia
  • The Philippines: First SONA By Marcos Falls Short Of Expectations
  • The Commodity Report #62

Hong Kong: Worries About The Collapse Of The Currency Peg Are Overblown

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Falling foreign exchange reserves have reawakened fears for the HK Dollar peg to the US Dollar. This fear is fundamentally misplaced. 
  • The currency board system underpinning the peg cannot break by definition unless there is a political decision to break it.
  • Instead, what HK might have to fear is the consequences of the peg for the domestic economy by way of asset price deflation and falling wages.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Jago, Meralco’s Sell-Down, and Unilever Indonesia

By Angus Mackintosh

The Philippines: First SONA By Marcos Falls Short Of Expectations

By Nicholas Chia

  • President Marcos’ first State of the Nation Address (SONA) represents a missed opportunity of-sorts, given his sizeable mandate & political capital. The address lacked fresh reforms on taxation or economic liberalisation.
  • Without a renewed push to open up the economy, foreign investment approvals, which have slowed, will only continue to languish.
  • Conversely, a large part of his speech addressed the agriculture sector which he personally oversees, reflecting attempts by Marcos to broaden his family’s political base beyond the Solid North.

The Commodity Report #62

By The Commodity Report

  • Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again.
  • As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.
  • More important commodities did so even while GDP data was worse than expected.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Coupang, Krafton Inc, KT Corp, DB Hitek Co., Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • A Pair Trade Between Emart & Coupang (Potential End of Mandatory Shut Down Rules for Hypermarkets)
  • A Pair Trade Between Krafton & NCsoft (India’s Crackdown on Krafton’s BGMI)
  • KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System
  • Minority Shareholders Go Activist on DB Hitek

A Pair Trade Between Emart & Coupang (Potential End of Mandatory Shut Down Rules for Hypermarkets)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between E Mart Inc (long) and Coupang (short). At current valuations and business outlook, we like the risk/reward of this pair trade.
  • The end of the mandatory shut down rules on major hypermarkets is likely to have a major positive impact on Emart and negative impact on Coupang and Kurly.
  • Although this has not been made into law, we think there is relatively high probability that this will eventually be made into law sometime this year. 

A Pair Trade Between Krafton & NCsoft (India’s Crackdown on Krafton’s BGMI)

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, there have been numerous news accounts about the Indian government cracking down on Krafton’s Battlegrounds Mobile India (BGMI) game.
  • We believe there are several reasons why Indian government is cracking down on BGMI including concerns about this game potentially leading to greater violence among children and ties to Tencent.
  • At current valuation levels, we like a pair trade between Krafton (go short) and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) (go long).

KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System

By Douglas Kim

  • Hankyung Business Daily reported today that KT Corp (030200 KS) is close to selling its 36.9% controlling stake in Kt Submarine (060370 KS) to LS Cable & System.
  • Once the KT Submarine deal is completed, this could positively impact KT Corp’s dividends.
  • KT Corp’s selling of its controlling stake in KT Submarine would fit along its restructuring plans to sell off some businesses that are considered non-core.

Minority Shareholders Go Activist on DB Hitek

By Douglas Kim

  • The minority shareholders of DB Hitek have started to go activist on the company. They are initially requesting the company to get access to its shareholder list.
  • Many minority shareholders are suspicious that DB Inc may be trying to intentionally lower the share price of DB Hitek through a physical division split off.
  • DB Hitek’s share price has declined nearly 48% since its 52 week highs in January 2022. The valuation multiples of the company have declined to more attractive levels. 

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Pan Brothers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief United States: Amazon.com Inc, Ethereum, NFT, Texas Instruments, Elastic NV, Gold, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ecovyst, United Parcel Service Cl B, ATN International and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point
  • #33 To be or not to be a security
  • Sporting Crypto – August 1st 2022: Immortalising Geoff Hurst’s Memories Using NFTs
  • Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments
  • Elastic NV: Initiation of Coverage – Enhancements To The Elastic Observatory Solution & Other Drivers
  • The Commodity Report #62
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Expansion of the Loyalty Program & Other Developments
  • ECVT: Echoes of Free Cash Flow
  • United Parcel Service Inc.: Expansion In The Indian Market & Other Developments
  • ATNI: Network Expansion

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

By Aaron Gabin

  • Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22’s guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22’s outperformance.
  • Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22’s 7% leading to 3Q22’s 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.
  • AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.

#33 To be or not to be a security

By Carbono Insights

  • To be or not to be a security. The question of whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities (or another type of asset, for that matter) does not have a final answer yet.
  • However, it has been on the table for a long time.
  • Commodities are interchangeable goods, and securities are financial assets, in a dangerously short definition.

Sporting Crypto – August 1st 2022: Immortalising Geoff Hurst’s Memories Using NFTs

By Sporting Crypto

  • Most sport athlete NFT projects are awful.
  • But this project, that immortalises legendary England striker Geoff Hurst’s memories – in NFT form – is pretty awesome.
  • World Cup Winner Geoff Hurst is digitally preserving his memories of the 1966 World Cup Final for The Everlasting Memory Project in support of Alzheimer’s Research UK.

Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Texas Instruments delivered its third consecutive all-around beat in the recent result with a reported revenue of $5.21 billion this quarter.
  • Among major developments, Texas Instruments has recently broken the ground on the new semiconductor plants of 300-mm for water fabrication in Sherman, Texas.
  • Texas Instruments has a strong balance sheet and the management continues investing in building capacity.

Elastic NV: Initiation of Coverage – Enhancements To The Elastic Observatory Solution & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Elastic NV, a major technology solutions provider catering to multi-cloud environments.
  • All over the year, customers continued to adopt Elastic Cloud, expanding over use cases and increasing consumption as there was a growth in the enterprise data.
  • Elastic continues expanding its land-and-expand approach because customers wish to adopt over one Elastic solution to support their business initiatives.

The Commodity Report #62

By The Commodity Report

  • Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again.
  • As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.
  • More important commodities did so even while GDP data was worse than expected.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Expansion of the Loyalty Program & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill has been in the news for an amazing rebound in its stock price after delivering a robust set of results surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of earnings.
  • The in-restaurant sales increased while digital sales were also up and the management added 51 new restaurants in 42 locations.
  • We provide the stock of Chipotle Mexican Grill with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

ECVT: Echoes of Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ECVT continued to benefit from the growing need of sulfuric acid and catalysts throughout its customer base.
  • Refineries are operating at high utilization rates resulting in eco services sales rising faster than expected. The silica catalysts segment continues to benefit from polyethylene demand
  • The free cash flow ECVT is generating has resulted in ECVT lowering its debt ratio to lowest in the Company’s history. However, the stock price has yet to reward shareholders

United Parcel Service Inc.: Expansion In The Indian Market & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • UPS managed to deliver an all-around beat in the past quarter despite the fact that its macro environment remained dynamic.
  • In spite of the decline in volume, UPS continues to win in maximum parts of the market, having strong gains in revenue quality.
  • All segments of the business have delivered growth in the operating profit.

ATNI: Network Expansion

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATNI reported progress in growing its network size and subscriber base in the second quarter. ATNI reported a sequential increase in the number of high-speed data and mobile subscribers
  • ATNI’s steady progress with its network expansion is expected to help cash flow from operations in future quarters. 
  • The addition of Sacred Wind is supposed to give ATNI a broader reach in New Mexico. Sacred Wind should end up being complimentary to ATNI

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