Smartkarma Daily Briefs, Author at Smartkarma

Feb 20

Daily Brief Industrials: Sembcorp Marine, Advantest Corp, Fujitec Co Ltd, Toshiba Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value
Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound
Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina
Toshiba Bear Targets

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

By Arun George

The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)‘s shareholders on 1 March.
While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie.
New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.

Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound

By Scott Foster

Advantest’s share price has risen by 21.5% since the beginning of January, but sales and profits are peaking and YoY comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult.
Competitor Teradyne’s results and guidance give an indication of potential near-term risk, which could be more than 20%.
Visibility is deteriorating and the longer-term outlook uncertain. We doubt the share price can hold up as profits decline.

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) raised US$597 million by pricing the IPO at the low end of the price range of IDR875-880 per share.
Event-Driven developments – Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Keppel Corp (KEP SP), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Toshiba Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.
Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.
Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief Consumer: Fu Shou Yuan, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The second wave of pandemic is important logic to drive up Fu Shou Yuan’s share price, but the peak value/lethality could be lower than first wave, leading to lower-than-expected demand.
Whether the second wave can “arrive as expected” may not depend on pandemic itself, but on “whether to let it happen”,especially when China’s making every effort to promote economic recovery.
Besides solid fundamentals/optimistic performance, hot market sentiment is very essential if Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)’s share price is to outperform. Policy changes are also a potential source of unease.

Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

By Aki Matsumoto

Since companies are in the process of raising their own human capital efforts, it’s good to use ISO 30414 certification as an opportunity to see how well they are doing.
Many companies may believe that ISO will share the risk of information at the time of disclosure with respect to the accuracy of the disclosed information.
Since perfect information doesn’t seem to be required in the Annual Securities Report for FY3/2023, the information will actually be available for intercompany comparisons starting with that for FY3/2024.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief Thailand: Intouch Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) is likely to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.
Then there should be one change in June with Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) replacing Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) in the index.
There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief Singapore: Sembcorp Marine, Boustead Singapore Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value
Deep-Dive 2023-3: Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP)

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

By Arun George

The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)‘s shareholders on 1 March.
While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie.
New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.

Deep-Dive 2023-3: Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP)

By Michael Fritzell

The company was founded in 1828 as a British trading house, active across rubber plantations, tin smelting, trading of oil products, shipping, distribution of consumer goods and more.
After Singapore become an independent country, Boustead Singapore was spun off from its Malaysian and British counterparts.
In 1996, the company became controlled by entrepreneur FF Wong.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief Japan: Advantest Corp, Fujitec Co Ltd, Toshiba Corp, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound
Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina
Toshiba Bear Targets
Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound

By Scott Foster

Advantest’s share price has risen by 21.5% since the beginning of January, but sales and profits are peaking and YoY comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult.
Competitor Teradyne’s results and guidance give an indication of potential near-term risk, which could be more than 20%.
Visibility is deteriorating and the longer-term outlook uncertain. We doubt the share price can hold up as profits decline.

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) raised US$597 million by pricing the IPO at the low end of the price range of IDR875-880 per share.
Event-Driven developments – Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Keppel Corp (KEP SP), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Toshiba Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.
Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.
Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.

Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

By Aki Matsumoto

Since companies are in the process of raising their own human capital efforts, it’s good to use ISO 30414 certification as an opportunity to see how well they are doing.
Many companies may believe that ISO will share the risk of information at the time of disclosure with respect to the accuracy of the disclosed information.
Since perfect information doesn’t seem to be required in the Annual Securities Report for FY3/2023, the information will actually be available for intercompany comparisons starting with that for FY3/2024.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief China: Aag Energy Holdings, China Longyuan Power, Fu Shou Yuan, Tencent, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Feb) – AAG Energy, Yashili, Toyo, Nitro, Origin Energy, Newcrest, O2Micro
China Longyuan (916 HK): The Bull Story Should Continue
Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Tencent (700 HK): Game Market Shrinks for the First Time
China Internet Weekly (20Feb2023): Tencent, Douyin, Yunda, Dingdong
Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, China SCE, Lenovo, O-Net Technologies (Group)

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Feb) – AAG Energy, Yashili, Toyo, Nitro, Origin Energy, Newcrest, O2Micro

By Arun George

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU).
Lowest spreads – Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Ihara Science (5999 JP), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Essential Metals (ESS AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU).

China Longyuan (916 HK): The Bull Story Should Continue

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The FY22 profit warning for China Longyuan Power (916 HK) reflected mostly items of one-off in nature and the weak result should be a matter of the past.
The Jan overall generation growth of 30.6% and wind power growth of 44.4% are very solid performance. With economic rebound and low comparison base, we expect growth to sustain.
Asset injection from CHN Energy and improvement in financial position through subsidy collection are positives, making its below 10x PERs for FY23 and FY24 attractive.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The second wave of pandemic is important logic to drive up Fu Shou Yuan’s share price, but the peak value/lethality could be lower than first wave, leading to lower-than-expected demand.
Whether the second wave can “arrive as expected” may not depend on pandemic itself, but on “whether to let it happen”,especially when China’s making every effort to promote economic recovery.
Besides solid fundamentals/optimistic performance, hot market sentiment is very essential if Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)’s share price is to outperform. Policy changes are also a potential source of unease.

Tencent (700 HK): Game Market Shrinks for the First Time

By Ming Lu

Chinese online game revenue decreased year over year for the first time since the statistic started.
From 2018, the Press and Publishing Administration had significantly reduced the number of new game license.
Short video has been gradually taking time on site from online game.

China Internet Weekly (20Feb2023): Tencent, Douyin, Yunda, Dingdong

By Ming Lu

The Chinese online game market shrank for the first time in 2022.
Tencent’s WeChat plans to launch a cooked food delivery platform.
Douyin dismissed 15% employees in PICO, which is Douyin’s virtual reality team.

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, China SCE, Lenovo, O-Net Technologies (Group)

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Adani Green Energy
China SCE
Lenovo
O-Net Technologies (Group)
Yuexiu Property

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Feb 20

Daily Brief India: Pidilite Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY Mar 23 Rebal: Quiddity Flow Expectations

NIFTY Mar 23 Rebal: Quiddity Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The March 2023 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 17th February 2023.
In my previous insights, I highlighted Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) as a potential ADD for NIFTY 50 but it will not be added in March 2023. There are no changes.
However, for NIFTY 100 (& NIFTY Next 50), 4/5 Expected ADDs and 5/5 Expected DELs were predicted correctly.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Baidu and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baidu, Country Garden, Zhongsheng, Alibaba, Li Ning
Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 17th): Meituan, Xiaomi, Tencent
A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 17th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor
Northbound Flows (Feb 17th): CATL, Sany Heavy, Hundsun, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Eve Energy
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 17th): Yageo, Yulon Motor, Nuvoton Tech, Airtac

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baidu, Country Garden, Zhongsheng, Alibaba, Li Ning

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 10th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Bidu, Country Garden, Zhongsheng, Baba, Li Ning.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 17th): Meituan, Xiaomi, Tencent

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the total inflows to be USD 960m and highlight flows for Meituan, Xiaomi, Tencent.

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 17th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.6% as of Feb 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, health care, energy and offset by communication services, consumer staples, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor.

Northbound Flows (Feb 17th): CATL, Sany Heavy, Hundsun, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Eve Energy

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 17th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,241.6 million, led by industrials, consumer discretionary, information technology sectors, and offset by financials, utilities.
We highlight flows for Contemporary Amperex Technology, Sany Heavy Industry, Hundsun Technologies, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Eve Energy.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 17th): Yageo, Yulon Motor, Nuvoton Tech, Airtac

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 17th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Yageo, Yulon Motor, Nuvoton Tech, Airtac.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief ESG: Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

By Aki Matsumoto

Since companies are in the process of raising their own human capital efforts, it’s good to use ISO 30414 certification as an opportunity to see how well they are doing.
Many companies may believe that ISO will share the risk of information at the time of disclosure with respect to the accuracy of the disclosed information.
Since perfect information doesn’t seem to be required in the Annual Securities Report for FY3/2023, the information will actually be available for intercompany comparisons starting with that for FY3/2024.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network