Smartkarma Daily Briefs

MSCI announced the changes to the GIMI on Friday as part of the February QCIR. MSCI also announced a review of the free float of the Adani Group companies.
FTSE will announce the changes to the All-World and All-Cap indices after the close of trading on Friday, 17 February. The same day is the S&P/ASX review cutoff for March.
Yet another weekly outflow for the IShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV US) taking the YTD outflow to over US$2.5bn.

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.10) – Assisted Reproduction into NRDL, Cell Therapy, Medicilon, IRay,

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The benefits of assisted reproduction being covered by medical insurance are limited. Its main role is still to delay not fundamentally reverse the decline of China’s birth rate.
If the valuation collapse occurs collectively in one field, it basically reflects that Miss Market does not hold much hope for this field in the future, such as cell therapy.
We mainly analyzed some key points of the companies that investors may be interested in, such as iRay Technology (688301 CH) and Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202 CH).

Amgen Inc: Acquisition Of Horizon Therapeutics & Other Drivers

The company carried out some major acquisitions in the year including the $3.7 billion purchase of ChemoCentryx followed by the even bigger, $27.8 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics.
Their portfolio will also grow due to the addition of Horizon Therapeutics.
In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Industrials: Sebang Co Ltd, Jgc Corp, Tokyo Electron, Toshiba Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective
JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): MAGIC Versus Reality
Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan
Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana

KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective

By Sanghyun Park

Amorepacific Group is more likely to remain in LargeCap due to its share price surge earlier this year. Instead, Hyundai Autoever will likely face a large→mid migration.
Of Small→Mid migrants. Sebang and Kum Yang deserve attention, as they will rank high in the Mid due to the rapid market cap growth over the past six months.
YTD performance seems to have a higher correlation with individual sector performance than causality with this event. So, there is still a circumstantial probability that justifies the trade.

JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.

Engineering & Construction firm Jgc Corp (1963 JP) on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.
The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter.
Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): MAGIC Versus Reality

By Scott Foster

The market welcomed TEL’s 3Q results and new guidance, but sales, profits and margins continue to decline year-on-year.
An optimistic consensus sees a new cyclical high in the second half of the decade, but avoids the question of disengagement from China.
Inventories are at a record high. Valuations out to FY Mar-25 do not look attractive.

Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

By David Blennerhassett

The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)affected. Adani Green (ADANIGR IN), Adani Power (ADANI IN), and Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN) not affected.
Hongkong Land (HKL SP) is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares.
The Nikkei didn’t write an article on Toshiba (6502 JP) when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at “about ¥2trln“.

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) guides to the low end of the IDR875-880 price range and Hesai Group (HSAI US) has a good debut.
Event-Driven developments – Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ihara Science (5999 JP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP).

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Feb 12

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Medicilon Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.10) – Assisted Reproduction into NRDL, Cell Therapy, Medicilon, IRay,

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Hesai Group (HSAI US) provided the first Asia linked listing for the year.
Things were quiet on the placement front owing to the annual earnings reporting season.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.10) – Assisted Reproduction into NRDL, Cell Therapy, Medicilon, IRay,

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The benefits of assisted reproduction being covered by medical insurance are limited. Its main role is still to delay not fundamentally reverse the decline of China’s birth rate.
If the valuation collapse occurs collectively in one field, it basically reflects that Miss Market does not hold much hope for this field in the future, such as cell therapy.
We mainly analyzed some key points of the companies that investors may be interested in, such as iRay Technology (688301 CH) and Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202 CH).

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Data and News
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Feb 12

Most Read: Surya Esa Perkasa, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A, S.M.Entertainment Co, Link REIT, Sabana Industrial REIT, Kakao Pay, Sebang Co Ltd, Ebos Group Ltd, Jgc Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO
CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform
HYBE to Acquire a 39.8% Stake in SM Entertainment
Big Link REIT (823 HK) Rights Offering
Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look
MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included
KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, CSI500, XIN9I, DTAC/TRUE, Newcrest, Adani, Korea Spinoffs
JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.
Largest passive inflows are expected to be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) and Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ).
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO

There were some review cutoffs last week as well as the implementation of the PCOMP INDEX, IDX 30 Index, LQ 45 Index and IDX 80 Index.
The big event in the coming week is the announcement of the MSCI February QCIR on Friday morning Asia time with implementation at the close of trading on 28 February.
Inflows to iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG US) continue while IShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV US) continues to see redemptions.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.

HYBE to Acquire a 39.8% Stake in SM Entertainment

By Douglas Kim

On 10 February (prior to market open), Seoul Economic Daily reported that HYBE will conduct a tender offer of SM Entertainment shares taking over the controlling ownership of the company.
HYBE agreed to acquire a 14.8% stake from SM Entertainment’s founder Lee Soo-Man at 120,000 won per share, which represents a 21.8% premium to the closing price on 9 February.
HYBE is also conducting a tender offer to minority shareholders and it plans to acquire up to 25% additional shares at 120,000 won per share, representing 717 billion won.

Big Link REIT (823 HK) Rights Offering

After being halted this morning before the start of trade, post-close, Link REIT (823 HK) announced a fully-underwritten Rights Offering.
The Rights Offering intends to raise HK$18.8bn issuing 1 Right for every 5 Shares held, at a subscription price of HK$44.20, a 26% discount to TERP.
This will take an already under-levered REIT and add more capital to it. And there is going to be selling pressure at some point.

Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look

The Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) 2022H2 dividend went ex- on 6 February 2023, setting the Offer to be lowered. The Offer by Volare was lowered. Docs out Friday night.
The S$0.465 Offer, adjusted for dividends (to be paid 27 March (cash or DRP units)), is now S$0.4504 per unit. The first close is 10 March 2023.
Sabana has underperformed a basket of slightly higher beta peers by 1+% since the day before the announcement. Watch pro-ration risk.

MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included

By Douglas Kim

MSCI announced its MSCI Korea index rebalance on 10 February. Kakao Pay (377300 KS) was the only company to be included in the MSCI Korea index.
There were also nine Korean companies included in MSCI Small Cap index including Osstem Implant, DearU, and ISC Co.
Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Ecopro Co Ltd (086520 KS) are higher probability potential candidates for inclusion in MSCI Korea Index rebalance in May.

KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective

By Sanghyun Park

Amorepacific Group is more likely to remain in LargeCap due to its share price surge earlier this year. Instead, Hyundai Autoever will likely face a large→mid migration.
Of Small→Mid migrants. Sebang and Kum Yang deserve attention, as they will rank high in the Mid due to the rapid market cap growth over the past six months.
YTD performance seems to have a higher correlation with individual sector performance than causality with this event. So, there is still a circumstantial probability that justifies the trade.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, CSI500, XIN9I, DTAC/TRUE, Newcrest, Adani, Korea Spinoffs

MSCI announced the changes to the GIMI on Friday as part of the February QCIR. MSCI also announced a review of the free float of the Adani Group companies.
FTSE will announce the changes to the All-World and All-Cap indices after the close of trading on Friday, 17 February. The same day is the S&P/ASX review cutoff for March.
Yet another weekly outflow for the IShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV US) taking the YTD outflow to over US$2.5bn.

JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.

Engineering & Construction firm Jgc Corp (1963 JP) on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.
The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter.
Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Financials: Sabana Industrial REIT, JPY, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look
Japan Watch: Kazuo Ueda – Who?
Bajaj Finance: Leveraging Its Platform to Deepen and Widen Its Product Penetration
Deep Dive: Japanese Trading Companies (Part 1)

Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look

The Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) 2022H2 dividend went ex- on 6 February 2023, setting the Offer to be lowered. The Offer by Volare was lowered. Docs out Friday night.
The S$0.465 Offer, adjusted for dividends (to be paid 27 March (cash or DRP units)), is now S$0.4504 per unit. The first close is 10 March 2023.
Sabana has underperformed a basket of slightly higher beta peers by 1+% since the day before the announcement. Watch pro-ration risk.

Japan Watch: Kazuo Ueda – Who?

By Andreas Steno

Ueda seems like a centrist candidate compared to Amamiya (dove) or Yamaguchi (hawk)
Ueda, if he gets the nod on Tuesday, is likely to slowly but surely distance himself from YCC
We continue to like JPY on the prospects of tighter USD-JPY rates spreads

Bajaj Finance: Leveraging Its Platform to Deepen and Widen Its Product Penetration

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) reported decent profitability. Growth was somewhat muted due to competition, however, this seems temporary.
The immediate focus of BAF to drive the next leg of growth is to deepen its product penetration across its existing branches. Currently, only 3% branches have 80%+ products.
BAF revealed its long-term strategic plan wherein it plans to enter into newer categories like Auto, Agri, and CV which comprise 28% of the Indian retail credit market.

Deep Dive: Japanese Trading Companies (Part 1)

By Value Punks

This is Part 1 of our exclusive deep dive on “Sogo Shosha”, or Japanese trading companies.

We’ve decided to break this deep dive into two parts given its length.

Part 1 will build the foundation and covers the business, history, and a discussion of Berkshire’s investment.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief India: Bajaj Finance Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Bajaj Finance: Leveraging Its Platform to Deepen and Widen Its Product Penetration

Bajaj Finance: Leveraging Its Platform to Deepen and Widen Its Product Penetration

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) reported decent profitability. Growth was somewhat muted due to competition, however, this seems temporary.
The immediate focus of BAF to drive the next leg of growth is to deepen its product penetration across its existing branches. Currently, only 3% branches have 80%+ products.
BAF revealed its long-term strategic plan wherein it plans to enter into newer categories like Auto, Agri, and CV which comprise 28% of the Indian retail credit market.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Japan: Jgc Corp, JPY, Tokyo Electron, Toshiba Corp, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.
Japan Watch: Kazuo Ueda – Who?
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): MAGIC Versus Reality
Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan
Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana
“Stable Dividend” Tradition May Have Something to Do with Rewarding Cross-Held Shareholders

JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.

Engineering & Construction firm Jgc Corp (1963 JP) on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.
The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter.
Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.

Japan Watch: Kazuo Ueda – Who?

By Andreas Steno

Ueda seems like a centrist candidate compared to Amamiya (dove) or Yamaguchi (hawk)
Ueda, if he gets the nod on Tuesday, is likely to slowly but surely distance himself from YCC
We continue to like JPY on the prospects of tighter USD-JPY rates spreads

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): MAGIC Versus Reality

By Scott Foster

The market welcomed TEL’s 3Q results and new guidance, but sales, profits and margins continue to decline year-on-year.
An optimistic consensus sees a new cyclical high in the second half of the decade, but avoids the question of disengagement from China.
Inventories are at a record high. Valuations out to FY Mar-25 do not look attractive.

Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

By David Blennerhassett

The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)affected. Adani Green (ADANIGR IN), Adani Power (ADANI IN), and Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN) not affected.
Hongkong Land (HKL SP) is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares.
The Nikkei didn’t write an article on Toshiba (6502 JP) when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at “about ¥2trln“.

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) guides to the low end of the IDR875-880 price range and Hesai Group (HSAI US) has a good debut.
Event-Driven developments – Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ihara Science (5999 JP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP).

“Stable Dividend” Tradition May Have Something to Do with Rewarding Cross-Held Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

The Nikkei article addresses high-dividend investing as short-term strategy, while “Quality Income” is in demand by long-term investors seeking stable long-term performance. Both strategies have different investor segments and needs.
Many Japanese companies have basic policy of “stable dividends,” but it is easier for shareholders seeking to increase shareholder interests to understand a dividend policy based on clear cash allocations.
Given that Metrical’s analysis also found no correlation between changes in market capitalization and dividend policy scores, linking dividends and stock price is a difficult problem.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief ESG: “Stable Dividend” Tradition May Have Something to Do with Rewarding Cross-Held Shareholders and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

“Stable Dividend” Tradition May Have Something to Do with Rewarding Cross-Held Shareholders

“Stable Dividend” Tradition May Have Something to Do with Rewarding Cross-Held Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

The Nikkei article addresses high-dividend investing as short-term strategy, while “Quality Income” is in demand by long-term investors seeking stable long-term performance. Both strategies have different investor segments and needs.
Many Japanese companies have basic policy of “stable dividends,” but it is easier for shareholders seeking to increase shareholder interests to understand a dividend policy based on clear cash allocations.
Given that Metrical’s analysis also found no correlation between changes in market capitalization and dividend policy scores, linking dividends and stock price is a difficult problem.

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 12

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault
Ball Corporation: Details of Product Offerings & Key Drivers
Church & Dwight: Major Drivers
Corning Inc: Gorilla Glass Victus 2 & Other Developments
Exxon Mobil: Major Drivers

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Hesai Group (HSAI US) provided the first Asia linked listing for the year.
Things were quiet on the placement front owing to the annual earnings reporting season.

Ball Corporation: Details of Product Offerings & Key Drivers

Ball’s performance in the quarter was extremely disappointing and the company missed out on meeting Wall Street expectations with respect to revenues as well as earnings.
The company did see a decent performance in EMEA aerospace and aerosol operations, especially in its newly constructed facilities in EMEA.
The management believes that Ball’s aerospace and aerosol segments are having ongoing success and will complement the activities of its global beverage operations.

Church & Dwight: Major Drivers

Church & Dwight delivered a strong set of results in the last quarter, with revenue growth of around 0.4% that was beyond Wall Street expectations.
Its international business delivered 3.2% organic growth, driven by impressive performance across international subsidiaries.
On the other hand, TROJAN condoms returned to share growth, while OXICLEAN stain removers and ARM & HAMMER baking soda achieved double-digit consumption growth.

Corning Inc: Gorilla Glass Victus 2 & Other Developments

Corning faced the impact of a series of pandemic-driven effects during the last quarter but the company managed to deliver an all-around beat.
The purchase of laptops, tablets, smartphones, televisions, and cars was below the company’s estimation in the last quarter.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Exxon Mobil: Major Drivers