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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 29
0

Daily Brief China: SenseTime Group, Acotec Scientific Holdings, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Tencent and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, LQ45, New Deal, URA, NIFTY, Stock Connect, SenseTime, Adani
  • Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jan) – AAG Energy, Acotec, Xingda, Origin Energy, Tyro, Kanematsu, Toyo
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • ECM Weekly (29th Jan 2023) – Adani, Oasis, Mankind Pharma, ZJLD, India IPO Bookrunners

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, LQ45, New Deal, URA, NIFTY, Stock Connect, SenseTime, Adani

By Brian Freitas

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jan) – AAG Energy, Acotec, Xingda, Origin Energy, Tyro, Kanematsu, Toyo

By Arun George

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

ECM Weekly (29th Jan 2023) – Adani, Oasis, Mankind Pharma, ZJLD, India IPO Bookrunners

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • While the holiday shortened week didn’t see much action in Asia, but there was one more ADR filing in the US, adding to the mini-pipeline.
  • Adani’s ongoing FPO was the only live deal this week, although it had enough drama to make up for the lack of other deals.

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Jan 29
0

Daily Brief India: Adani Transmission, Adani Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Adani Group: Hindenburg Report Spurs MSCI to Invite Feedback
  • Last Week in SPACE: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Osstem, Fujitsu General, Adani Enterprises

Adani Group: Hindenburg Report Spurs MSCI to Invite Feedback

By Brian Freitas

  • The Adani Group stocks have taken a dive following the Hindenburg Research report. Group market cap is down more than US$47bn with company promoters taking the biggest hit.
  • The Adani Enterprises FPO is almost certain to be undersubscribed. MSCI, in an unprecedented step, is monitoring publicly available information and is seeking feedback from the investment community.
  • We find that the real float of some Adani Group stocks is much lower than the headline numbers and there could be selling if MSCI lowers the FIF.

Last Week in SPACE: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Osstem, Fujitsu General, Adani Enterprises

By David Blennerhassett

  • Be long Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) vs MOL and NYK. The shares are cheap on a forward basis. KLine is reducing the Real World Float, causing further potential squeeze.
  • Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)‘s Partial Offer at 0.88x book is not overwhelming, but it is also not a control stake. It is probably priced near-right.
  • IF Osstem (048260 KS)‘s price were to go higher, it is conceivable there could be a bump, but don’t bet on it as long as the stock trades <KRW 190,000. 

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Jan 29
0

Daily Brief Japan: Kanematsu Electronics, Kanematsu Nnk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP): JPY6,200 Tender Offer from Kanematsu Corporation
  • Kanematsu Sustech (7961) ¥2250/Share Tender Offer by Parent – Supremely Illiquid But Interesting
  • Kanematsu Electronics (8096) – ¥6200/Share Tender Offer by Parent – Easy Takeout

Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP): JPY6,200 Tender Offer from Kanematsu Corporation

By Arun George

  • Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP) has recommended Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP)’s tender offer of JPY6,200 per share, an 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 January).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer is attractive as it represents an all-time share price high and a premium to peer multiples. This suggests a done deal. 

Kanematsu Sustech (7961) ¥2250/Share Tender Offer by Parent – Supremely Illiquid But Interesting

By Travis Lundy

  • Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP) announced two tender offers late Friday to take out minorities in subsidiaries. One larger, safer deal. One smaller, illiquid, but potentially interesting one.
  • This is the interesting one. It is being done at the wrong price, and it has investors who might care who have been long-time holders.
  • This could get interesting. You have a buyer. A target. It’s pretty clean except for shareholder structure. And the buyer has room to pay up. 

Kanematsu Electronics (8096) – ¥6200/Share Tender Offer by Parent – Easy Takeout

By Travis Lundy

  • Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP) announced two tender offers Friday to take out subsidiaries. One more liquid one. One very small sub. This is the larger, easier deal. 
  • Kanematsu Electronics is an IT shop, designing and executing system integration and maintenance services. It is a great business. The takeout is a 33% premium to an all-time high.
  • It might still be a bit cheap, but it is not egregious, and it would be quite difficult to block. 

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief ESG: Isn’t the Best Catalyst to Facilitate MBOs to Increase Market Metabolism? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Isn’t the Best Catalyst to Facilitate MBOs to Increase Market Metabolism?

Isn’t the Best Catalyst to Facilitate MBOs to Increase Market Metabolism?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem is that many companies have resources but haven’t taken steps to strengthen their profitability, given that multiples have declined due to lower excess earnings than 50 years ago.
  • What is required of TSE isn’t to keep failing students in prime market and lower the quality of the market, but to promote metabolism and raise the quality of it.
  • The best catalyst is an MBO. Serious management’s consideration of what it should do for shareholders is to enhance profitability by leveraging resources, while the other is an MBO.

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Jan 28
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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs

SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs

By Water Tower Research

  • Same old in the IPO market…. The start of 2023 has a familiar ring to it. Much like the back end of the 2022, the SPAC IPO market continues to show little signs of life.
  • As we approach the end of the first month of the new year, there have been no additions to the sole SPAC IPO that was priced in early January, and as yet, still no new filings S1 registrations this year.
  • In fact, there have been 12 S1 withdrawals or abandonments with the queue of prospective SPACs looking to IPO continuing to dwindle.

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 27th): Aia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 27th): Aia, Esr, China Yongda

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 27th): Aia, Esr, China Yongda

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 27th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Esr (1821 HK), China Yongda Automobiles Services (3669 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Esr (1821 HK).

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief ECM: Aequitas India IPOs Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022) and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aequitas India IPOs Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)
  • Teradyne Inc: Merger of AutoGuide Mobile Robots & MiR & Other Drivers
  • Five9 Inc: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers
  • DocuSign Inc: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (01/23)
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions: Acquisition Of AustinCSI & Other Drivers
  • FuelCell Energy: Solid Oxide Fuel Cell And Electrolyzer Platform & Other Drivers
  • Lumentum Holdings: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers
  • Amkor Technology: Entry Into TSMC’s OIP 3DFabric Alliance & Other Developments
  • Under Armour: New SlipSpeed Range For Athletes & Other Developments

Aequitas India IPOs Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

By Ethan Aw

  • In this note, we will take a look at bookrunner performance for Indian IPOs from 2019-2022. 
  • The following dataset includes all Indian IPOs above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 49 deals.
  • The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these IPOs.

Teradyne Inc: Merger of AutoGuide Mobile Robots & MiR & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teradyne delivered a solid result in the last quarter as the company surpassed analyst expectations with respect to revenues as well as earnings.
  • At the operating level, it cleared some supply bottlenecks that allowed the company to ship more of semiconductor test products than previously planned.
  • Automation Group’s quarter revenue, in constant currency, grew.

Five9 Inc: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Five9 delivered an all-around beat in its last result as the company stock has seen a reversal in fortunes over the past few weeks.
  • The company gets leverage from its channels, ecosystem of partners, and system integrators, which helped it build its pipeline in its last result.
  • Overall, we provide the stock of Five9 with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

DocuSign Inc: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (01/23)

By Baptista Research

  • DocuSign delivered solid quarter results despite the challenging operating environment, surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, the top and bottom lines.
  • However, the company stills see healthy results with customers recognizing DocuSign high-ROI applications that are cost-effective, efficient, and easy to use.
  • DocuSign is continuing its innovation on the CLM front, solidifying its execution, customer validation, and vision within the CLM space.

Cognizant Technology Solutions: Acquisition Of AustinCSI & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • With its results around the corner, it would be interesting to look at Cognizant’s results from the last quarter.
  • The company had delivered revenue below the guidance range of the management, primarily driven by a lower billable headcount in North America.
  • Cognizant has been seeing revenue growth from health services and from products and resources driven by demand for its digital services among travel and hospitality, consumer goods, automotive, and logistics clients.

FuelCell Energy: Solid Oxide Fuel Cell And Electrolyzer Platform & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • FuelCell Energy had another disappointing result as it failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • FuelCell delivered 8 more modules of Ex Works to the Fuel Cell in Korea.
  • It is worth highlighting that FuelCell has started accepting orders for its solid oxide platform for hydrogen electrolysis and power generation applications.

Lumentum Holdings: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumentum Holdings delivered a strong result in the last quarter and managed an all-around beat.
  • This quarter reported strong demand from customers.
  • Overall, the demand for the Telecom products of Lumentum remains strong, particularly in edge networking applications.

Amkor Technology: Entry Into TSMC’s OIP 3DFabric Alliance & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Amkor Technology delivered excellent results in the last quarter and managed an all-around beat as its end markets showed a very strong demand.
  • Whereas market forecasts are weakened in some areas and the industry has been facing near-term macroeconomic headwinds, demand for the company’s advanced packaging technology stays strong, and the momentum strengthened in this quarter.
  • Revenue from computing end markets increased, and the test business of the company grew.

Under Armour: New SlipSpeed Range For Athletes & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour delivered an all- beat in its last result and was able to protected its financial health despite various headwinds.
  • Revenue was up in footwear with positive results in every category, led by significant strength in team sports.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia
  • Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We are lacking short ideas in Asia given we are long most markets. India presents a fresh short idea after failing at trend and price resistance.
  • The failure at trendline and 18,200 price resistance was touted as a bearish turn. We have now formed a bear flat that is set to break lower.
  • Macro: Remains bullish and we will probe for a long at 17,500/300. 19,470 is our macro bull projection.

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • 2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
  • We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
  • We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB) – Realising a Fashionable Recovery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB) – Realising a Fashionable Recovery
  • Bank of India – Off The Charts
  • Luxshare Precision Industry: More Market Share Gains from Hon Hai Precision Likely in 2023
  • Fanuc (6954) | Forget FA, Robots Are the Future
  • Intel 4Q22: How Many Kitchen Sinks?
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Embracing Its Digital Reach
  • Thai Banks 4Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Back on Top
  • Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Strong Nine-Month Result as COVID Had Minimal Impact on Surgery Volume
  • Gen Digital (formerly Norton Lifelock): Financial Forecasts
  • December Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and SME NPL Metrics Are the Focus Points

Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB) – Realising a Fashionable Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Central Retail Corp remains a core holding to play the retail recovery in Thailand and Vietnam, with the tailwind from the recovery in tourism providing an additional boost. 
  • The company has seen a dramatic recovery in its fashion business along with higher margins plus it is expanding new stores and launching new formats such as Tops CLUB. 
  • Vietnam provides an additional growth driver through BigC and GO Stores, where it is the omnichannel market leader, with Italy under Rinascente already ahead of pre-COVID sales levels.

Bank of India – Off The Charts

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Delta in core net interest income growth is accelerating like no other peer
  • Net interest margin’s are now up 50% YoY at a reasonable level of 3.02%
  • Credit costs have yet to decline despite NPL ratio down sharply

Luxshare Precision Industry: More Market Share Gains from Hon Hai Precision Likely in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We have a positive view of Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) and we believe its shares are well poised to outperform the market this year. 
  • The recent production halts and protests at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou facility due to the overly stringent COVID measures has benefited Luxshare since Apple has given more orders to the company.
  • We believe Luxshare will continue to grab more market share for producing iPhones and other products of Apple in 2023.

Fanuc (6954) | Forget FA, Robots Are the Future

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fanuc’s Q3 sales and earnings beat analyst expectations. Sales rose 17% YoY and profit increased by 14%. 
  • The bears will be able to point to the collapse in FA orders in Q3, but this just confirms what the Japan Machine Tool numbers have been signalling.
  • Robot orders remain strong as Fanuc continues to benefit from de-globalization and the need to modernize global supply chains.

Intel 4Q22: How Many Kitchen Sinks?

By Aaron Gabin

  • How many kitchens does Intel have? Intel guided 1Q2023 revenues to $11B, down 40% YoY / 22% QoQ and 21% (!!) below consensus $14B. 
  • 1Q23 gross margins ex-accounting change guided to 36%, the lowest since 1986!
  • Intel’s worsening FCF means dividend cuts are on the table.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Embracing Its Digital Reach

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia came through with a strong finish to the year as it took the brakes off lending, with the advantage of the highest CASA amongst Indonesian banks. 
  • Loan growth was focused on corporate borrowers, commercial & SMEs, and consumers, with mortgages and autos seeing strong growth in 4Q2022, whilst loans-at-risk continues to decline, boosting profitability. 
  • Bank Central Asia is highly capitalised but continues to invest in growth without sacrificing underwriting standards and continues to embrace its digital reach with growing numbers of customers. 

Thai Banks 4Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Back on Top

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai is our pick; it ranks top in terms of post-provision profitability, as well as screening well on NPL coverage and valuations, including its low PEG ratio
  • We also like Ayudhya, with its strong pre and post-provision profitability in 4Q22, strong credit quality metrics and attractive valuations
  • Kasikorn has had a difficult 4Q22 due to its high cost of risk and its need to bolster provision coverage; Kasikorn may be a 2023 opportunity, but not yet

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Strong Nine-Month Result as COVID Had Minimal Impact on Surgery Volume

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported 6.2% growth in revenue to ¥29.5B during 9MFY23, driven by healthy sales of Premium Kit and other non-woven products. Sales of Premium Kit climbed 12%.
  • Rising cost pressure has negatively impacted margins. Gross profit margin contracted 180bps YoY to 40.6% in 9MFY23. Operating profit margin declined 20bps YoY to 17.1%.
  • Hogy continued to expect revenue to rise 5.3% YoY to ¥38.7B, operating profit to grow 6.1% YoY to ¥6.5B, and net profit to increase 4.6% YoY to ¥4.57B in FY23.

Gen Digital (formerly Norton Lifelock): Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • After combining the Norton LifeLock and Avast businesses, the company has been renamed as Gen Digital – a corporation with the goal to develop technological solutions that will allow users to profit fully from the online environment while maintaining their privacy and confidence.
  • Today, the company’s brand portfolio includes well-known brands, including Norton, Avast, LifeLock, Avira, AVG, ReputationDefender, and CCleaner.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

December Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and SME NPL Metrics Are the Focus Points

By Victor Galliano

  • In December many NPL ratio categories improved MoM, but there are still some areas of concerns namely household and SME credit
  • System loan growth for full year 2022 decelerated further (from an annualized 14.7% in November) but still grew by +14%, due primarily to slower consumer loan growth
  • New credit spreads declined MoM, along with lending rates implying that this was not due solely to funding costs; we favour Banco do Brasil, and are cautious on Santander Brasil

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Xingda Int’l (1899 HK): Partial MBO Open For Tendering and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Xingda Int’l (1899 HK): Partial MBO Open For Tendering
  • Acotec (6669 HK): Current Proration of 82.7%
  • Tyro Offers Due Diligence To Potentia
  • Siemens/Siemens Gamesa: Running for the Exit

Xingda Int’l (1899 HK): Partial MBO Open For Tendering

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 7th December, Xingda International (1899 HK) announced a partial Offer from a consortium comprising management (known as the Five parties) at HK$1.88/share, a 24.5% premium to undisturbed. 
  • Pre-Conditions were satisfied on the 15 December and the Composite Document was dispatched last night.
  • The first close is the 24 February. Payment under the Offer is expected to be the 21 March.

Acotec (6669 HK): Current Proration of 82.7%

By David Blennerhassett

  • With a minimum acceptance hurdle of 50% and irrevocables of 60.14%, Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)‘s partial offer was always going to turn unconditional. 
  • As per last night’s announcement, valid acceptances were 78.59%. The Offer has automatically been extended to the 9 February – this is the final close. Pro-ration is currently 82.7%.
  • The minor quirk for partial Offers is that payment occurs within seven business days of the final close, not seven days from the Offer turning unconditional. 

Tyro Offers Due Diligence To Potentia

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Potentia bumped indicative terms to A$1.60/share last month, Tyro Payments (TYR AU)‘s board considered the revised terms remained below what is considered fair, and has ceased all discussions.
  • Following discussions between Tyro and Potentia, the Tyro Board is now providing Potentia with a 4-week period of due diligence to “enable Potentia to develop a significantly improved proposal“.
  • No indicative price was mentioned. Mike Cannon-Brookes’ Grok Ventures was open to a competing proposal of A$1.85/share. 

Siemens/Siemens Gamesa: Running for the Exit

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 25 January, the EGM of Siemens Gamesa approved the delisting of the shares, which the company requested to the CNMV.
  • The standing purchase order for the shares, at €18.05/share (same as the offer price, sellers will bear the brokerage, trading and settlement fees) will last until 7 February.
  • Gross spread is nil. Shortly after 7 February, Siemens Gamesa will be an unlisted illiquid share. Recommendation is sell into the sustained purchase order.

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