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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 26
0

Health Care: Alfresa Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): Looking Ahead Through 2022–25 Mid-Term Management Plan

Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): Looking Ahead Through 2022–25 Mid-Term Management Plan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) reported revenue decline in FY21. Apart from market wide negative impact of COVID-19 and drug price revision, suspended qualification for public bidding tenders affected the company.
  • In FY22, the company is expected to be back to its growth path with less impact of bidding suspension and increasing focus on high growth areas.
  • According to its 2022–2024 mid-term management plan, Alfresa targets to achieve a revenue of ¥2.7 trillion and operating income margin of 1.5% or higher by FY25.

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Jun 26
0

Macro: Bullish Omens From The Factor Gods and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Omens From The Factor Gods

Bullish Omens From The Factor Gods

By Cam Hui

  • A U.S. recession has become the consensus view among strategists, but the market is not reacting to the negative news.
  • A review of sector and factor returns shows a constructive return of risk appetite.
  • While it’s impossible to know if another shock could spark another risk-off episode, the long-term risk/return outlook for equities is becoming more attractive at these levels.

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Jun 26
0

Consumer: Thai Beverage and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) – Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) – Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • A few IPOs are lined up in Thailand and South Korea, in addition a number of deals are gearing up for launch.
  • There were no major placements last week. Although there are a few large lockup releases soon.

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Jun 26
0

Industrials: Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Uniden, Giordano, ResApp, Infomedia, SPH REIT, Toyo

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Uniden, Giordano, ResApp, Infomedia, SPH REIT, Toyo

By David Blennerhassett

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Jun 26
0

Equity Bottom-Up: Alfresa Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): Looking Ahead Through 2022–25 Mid-Term Management Plan

Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): Looking Ahead Through 2022–25 Mid-Term Management Plan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) reported revenue decline in FY21. Apart from market wide negative impact of COVID-19 and drug price revision, suspended qualification for public bidding tenders affected the company.
  • In FY22, the company is expected to be back to its growth path with less impact of bidding suspension and increasing focus on high growth areas.
  • According to its 2022–2024 mid-term management plan, Alfresa targets to achieve a revenue of ¥2.7 trillion and operating income margin of 1.5% or higher by FY25.

Related tickers: Alfresa Holdings (2784.T)

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Jun 26
0

Equity Capital Markets: SOCAR Inc, Thai Beverage and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SOCAR IPO: Another Absurd Valuation
  • ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) – Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

SOCAR IPO: Another Absurd Valuation

By Sanghyun Park

  • This IPO’s valuation is the trickiest among Korea’s recent IPOs. Whether all of these ten valuation peers have high enough business relevance to SOCAR is highly doubtful.
  • Whether SOCAR can evolve from a simple car sharing (or rental) operator to an in-vehicle software platform provider actually determines the success or failure of this IPO.
  • However, the IPO prospectus available to us lacks the evidence to favorably judge SOCAR’s growth potential. So, I will consider taking this IPO as conservatively as possible.

ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) – Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • A few IPOs are lined up in Thailand and South Korea, in addition a number of deals are gearing up for launch.
  • There were no major placements last week. Although there are a few large lockup releases soon.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jun 26
0

Event-Driven: Playtech Plc, Toshiba Corp, SenseTime Group, Kakao Pay, West African Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • TTB/Playtech: PUSU Deadline Looming
  • Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Uniden, Giordano, ResApp, Infomedia, SPH REIT, Toyo
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp
  • Kakao Pay: MSCI Will Likely to Continue to Treat Alipay as a Strategic Investor
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, SET50, S&P/ASX, MSCI, EMP PM, AMRT IJ, AMFI, SKT/KT

TTB/Playtech: PUSU Deadline Looming

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • PUSU deadline for TTB (Gopher) has been extended until 15 July. Playtech states that this time will allow progress in additional negotiations. Talks are credible, but progress is at snail’s pace.
  • Taking comparables’ median 9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, fair value for Playtech would be 772p. TTB should offer close to 800p to entice the Honk Kong based shareholders who derailed Aristocrat’s offer.
  • I see the current valuation of Playtech as an attractive entry point, with the upside of a likely bid. Long PTEC LN.

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Uniden, Giordano, ResApp, Infomedia, SPH REIT, Toyo

By David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

By David Blennerhassett

  • There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.
  • Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)‘s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. 
  • Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of SenseTime Group (20 HK) of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.

Kakao Pay: MSCI Will Likely to Continue to Treat Alipay as a Strategic Investor

By Douglas Kim

  • In our view, MSCI will likely to continue to treat Alipay as a strategic investor in Kakao Pay (377300 KS). 
  • This will likely result in a failed inclusion of Kakao Pay in the next round of MSCI Korea Index rebalance.
  • We also make a comparison to Kakao Pay-Alipay with another block sale involving Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS) and Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS).

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, SET50, S&P/ASX, MSCI, EMP PM, AMRT IJ, AMFI, SKT/KT

By Brian Freitas

  • No changes for Asia Pacific at the MSCI Annual Market Classification Review. Lots of improvements needed for Korea to move from EM to DM in June 2025 at the earliest.
  • Lots of changes expected for the HSCI and S&P/ASX family in September. Emperador Inc (EMP PM) and Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) are potential FTSE inclusions in September.
  • Shimao Services Holdings Limited (873 HK) started trading on Thursday and MSCI has announced the deletion of the stock from the MSCI China Index at the close on 27 June.

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Jun 26
0

China: SenseTime Group, Thai Beverage and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp
  • ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) – Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

By David Blennerhassett

  • There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.
  • Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)‘s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. 
  • Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of SenseTime Group (20 HK) of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.

ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) – Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • A few IPOs are lined up in Thailand and South Korea, in addition a number of deals are gearing up for launch.
  • There were no major placements last week. Although there are a few large lockup releases soon.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jun 26
0

TMT: SOCAR Inc, Playtech Plc, SenseTime Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SOCAR IPO: Another Absurd Valuation
  • TTB/Playtech: PUSU Deadline Looming
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

SOCAR IPO: Another Absurd Valuation

By Sanghyun Park

  • This IPO’s valuation is the trickiest among Korea’s recent IPOs. Whether all of these ten valuation peers have high enough business relevance to SOCAR is highly doubtful.
  • Whether SOCAR can evolve from a simple car sharing (or rental) operator to an in-vehicle software platform provider actually determines the success or failure of this IPO.
  • However, the IPO prospectus available to us lacks the evidence to favorably judge SOCAR’s growth potential. So, I will consider taking this IPO as conservatively as possible.

TTB/Playtech: PUSU Deadline Looming

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • PUSU deadline for TTB (Gopher) has been extended until 15 July. Playtech states that this time will allow progress in additional negotiations. Talks are credible, but progress is at snail’s pace.
  • Taking comparables’ median 9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, fair value for Playtech would be 772p. TTB should offer close to 800p to entice the Honk Kong based shareholders who derailed Aristocrat’s offer.
  • I see the current valuation of Playtech as an attractive entry point, with the upside of a likely bid. Long PTEC LN.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

By David Blennerhassett

  • There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.
  • Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)‘s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. 
  • Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of SenseTime Group (20 HK) of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jun 26
0

Most Read: Giordano International, iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index, SOCAR Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Giordano (709 HK): Cheng Family’s Underwhelming Offer
  • Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations
  • Korea May Continue to Fail MSCI DM Inclusion Unless Allowing for K200 Options Listing on SGX
  • Socar IPO Preview
  • SOCAR IPO: Another Absurd Valuation

Giordano (709 HK): Cheng Family’s Underwhelming Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Cheng family has made a voluntary conditional Offer of $1.88/share for Giordano International (709 HK). 
  • The Cheng’s (and concert parties) control 24.57%. The Offer is conditional on the family getting to more than 50% via tendering. 
  • The intention is to maintain Giordano’s listing. The Offer Price has not been declared final. 

Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

By Joe Jasper

  • Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
  • On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.
  • If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.

Korea May Continue to Fail MSCI DM Inclusion Unless Allowing for K200 Options Listing on SGX

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KRX and the MSCI have not agreed on the full right to use the KRX indexes’ price information. This should be the essential cause of Korea’s failed DM inclusion.
  • The MSCI wants to list the KOSPI 200 Options on the SGX, which the MSCI sees as a prerequisite for taking the lead in the Korean passive market.
  • Suppose the government takes a forward-looking approach to this issue. In that case, we may see the K200 Options SGX listing that has a bigger market impact before DM inclusion.

Socar IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Socar, the largest car sharing platform in Korea, is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI. The IPO base case offering size is from $120 million to $159 million.
  • The IPO price range is from 34,000 won to 45,000 won. The expected market cap of the company is from 1.2 trillion won to 1.6 trillion won.
  • Book building for the institutional investors starts on 1 August. Mirae Asset Securities and Samsung Securities are the lead underwriters in this IPO. 

SOCAR IPO: Another Absurd Valuation

By Sanghyun Park

  • This IPO’s valuation is the trickiest among Korea’s recent IPOs. Whether all of these ten valuation peers have high enough business relevance to SOCAR is highly doubtful.
  • Whether SOCAR can evolve from a simple car sharing (or rental) operator to an in-vehicle software platform provider actually determines the success or failure of this IPO.
  • However, the IPO prospectus available to us lacks the evidence to favorably judge SOCAR’s growth potential. So, I will consider taking this IPO as conservatively as possible.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Learn More