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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 22
0

Health Care: Resapp Health, Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • ResApp (RAP AU): Low-End Pfizer Offer As Cough Trial Fails
  • ResApp’s Confirmatory Study Fails, Resulting in Pfizer’s Lower A$0.146 Offer
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Untenable Business Model Worsen the Logic and Outlook

ResApp (RAP AU): Low-End Pfizer Offer As Cough Trial Fails

By David Blennerhassett

  • Disappointingly, the sensitivity and specificity of ResApp Health (RAP AU)‘s cough trial were significantly lower than its March pilot study.
  • As such, the Scheme Consideration from Pfizer Inc (PFE US) will be A$0.146/share, which is still a 62.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Trading super wide to terms after short-term punters kicked out. 

ResApp’s Confirmatory Study Fails, Resulting in Pfizer’s Lower A$0.146 Offer

By Arun George

  • Disappointingly, Resapp Health (RAP AU)‘s confirmatory data readout condition was not satisfied, resulting in Pfizer Inc (PFE US)’s lower unconfirmed data offer price of A$0.146 per share.
  • The revised SID provides no obvious way for Pfizer to pull its offer. The still material premium to undisturbed price and open shareholder register suggests that the scheme will pass. 
  • The scheme meeting will be held in early to mid-August. At the last close of A$0.125, the gross spread to the unconfirmed data offer price of A$0.146 is 16.8%. 

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Untenable Business Model Worsen the Logic and Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Just as we analyzed before, things get worse for PAGD. The loss expanded and gross margin declined. The gap between PAGD and its peers (JD Health, Alibaba Health) is widening. 
  • PAGD’s Achilles’ heel is its business model/profit model is untenable. The new HMO services system would not help turn things around because China’s national condition is different from the US.
  • Being on the wrong track, PAGD’s financial performance is expected to further weaken. We are conservative about PAGD’s outlook. Any brief upwards movement is just dead cat bounce.

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Jun 22
0

Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba Group, Sony Corp, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited, Ashok Leyland, Grab and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba: More Money to Be Made on The Short Side
  • Sony (6758 JP): Image Sensors Set for Rebound & Long-Term Expansion
  • NTT (Buy) – Updated Forecasts and Comments on Telework
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Untenable Business Model Worsen the Logic and Outlook
  • Ashok Leyland (AL IN) | Outperforming but Warrants Caution
  • Grab (GRAB US) – Mapping Out a More Prudent Future

Alibaba: More Money to Be Made on The Short Side

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • After rising more than 40% since Q4 earnings, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is threatening to break out from a downtrend that lasted a little less than 20 months.
  • We think this bounce is quite normal given the fact that the stock lost more than 76% of its value during a challenging time period.
  • We remain confident that Alibaba has more downside potential and thinks that this is yet another opportunity to make money on the short side.

Sony (6758 JP): Image Sensors Set for Rebound & Long-Term Expansion

By Scott Foster

  • Aided by the weak yen, Imaging & Sensing Solutions should return as a major profit driver in FY Mar-23.
  • Capacity expansion should help SONY regain image sensor market share over the next 3-4 years.
  • Participation in TSMC’s foundry project in Kyushu should add to the division’s long-term potential.

NTT (Buy) – Updated Forecasts and Comments on Telework

By Kirk Boodry

  • NTT has adopted a progressive telework policy that reportedly allows up to 50% of eligible employees (30,000) to work from anywhere in Japan
  • All telcos are likely to go down this path although NTT stands out as a larger and more  traditional domestic company than KDDI or Softbank
  • We have updated our model for new segment reporting. Our new forecasts support a ¥4,500 target price (March 2023) and we remain at Buy. 

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Untenable Business Model Worsen the Logic and Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Just as we analyzed before, things get worse for PAGD. The loss expanded and gross margin declined. The gap between PAGD and its peers (JD Health, Alibaba Health) is widening. 
  • PAGD’s Achilles’ heel is its business model/profit model is untenable. The new HMO services system would not help turn things around because China’s national condition is different from the US.
  • Being on the wrong track, PAGD’s financial performance is expected to further weaken. We are conservative about PAGD’s outlook. Any brief upwards movement is just dead cat bounce.

Ashok Leyland (AL IN) | Outperforming but Warrants Caution

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Ashok Leyland (AL IN) ‘s volumes recovered in FY22 thanks to a much milder than expected omicron wave and market share gains.
  • Discounting lead gains, the absence of retail fleet owners in the market, and little excitement around the scrappage policy all warrant caution. 
  • While the stock is currently outperforming, channel feedback and valuations point to caution. 

Grab (GRAB US) – Mapping Out a More Prudent Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab continues to innovate and adapt to more challenging times, with a needle focus on moving toward profitability with ongoing efforts to reduce incentives and rationalise non-core businesses.
  • The launch of GrabMaps is interesting in that it has the potential to generate new revenue streams, create substantial cost savings, and enable targeted advertising adding to the enterprise segment.
  • Grab (GRAB US)  has cash liquidity of US$8.2bn, which makes it look cheap relative to its market cap of only US$8.9bn and it is trading on 2.0x FY2023E EV/Sales. 

Related tickers: Sony Corp (6758.T), NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432.T), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833.HK), Ashok Leyland (ASOK.NS)

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Jun 22
0

Macro: Vietnam: A Bullish Case Centred On Production Relocation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Vietnam: A Bullish Case Centred On Production Relocation
  • CX Daily: Trouble at Crypto Hedge Fund Sparks Contagion Fears

Vietnam: A Bullish Case Centred On Production Relocation

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Vietnam stands to gain the most in the region from supply chain relocation given its multiple competitive advantages and its growing capacity to move up the value chain.
  • However, success is not pre-ordained and hinges on two key conditions. First, Vietnam has to upgrade the skills of its labour force and its physical infrastructure.
  • Second, more policies are needed to increase the spillovers from the foreign investment sector to the overall economy.

CX Daily: Trouble at Crypto Hedge Fund Sparks Contagion Fears

By Caixin Global

  • Cover Story: China’s climate envoy says nations must deliver on their commitments (Part 1)

  • Sinopec Shanghai plant blaze leaves one dead, one injured

  • In Depth: Trouble at crypto hedge fund sparks contagion fears

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Jun 22
0

Most Read: Huitongda, Com7 PCL, Alibaba Group, Toshiba Corp, Thai Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
  • SET50 Index Rebalance: BLA, JMT, JMART Added; COM7, RATCH, STGT Out
  • Alibaba: More Money to Be Made on The Short Side
  • Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance
  • Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Industry Dynamics and Domestic Peer Comparison Aren’t Very Encouraging

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
  • There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list.
  • Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.

SET50 Index Rebalance: BLA, JMT, JMART Added; COM7, RATCH, STGT Out

By Brian Freitas

Alibaba: More Money to Be Made on The Short Side

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • After rising more than 40% since Q4 earnings, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is threatening to break out from a downtrend that lasted a little less than 20 months.
  • We think this bounce is quite normal given the fact that the stock lost more than 76% of its value during a challenging time period.
  • We remain confident that Alibaba has more downside potential and thinks that this is yet another opportunity to make money on the short side.

Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

By Travis Lundy

  • Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.
  • The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it “supported” while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. 
  • Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next “transparency” likely comes in November. 

Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Industry Dynamics and Domestic Peer Comparison Aren’t Very Encouraging

By Sumeet Singh

  • Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
  • Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
  • In this note, we will talk about the industry dynamics and undertake a peer comparison versus its domestic peers.

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Jun 22
0

Industrials: Huitongda, Toshiba Corp, Kepco Engineering & Construction, Ashok Leyland, Firstgroup PLC, Spirit Airlines and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
  • Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance
  • Block Deal Sale of KEPCO Engineering & Construction Likely in 2H 2022
  • Ashok Leyland (AL IN) | Outperforming but Warrants Caution
  • I Squared/FirstGroup: Looming PUSU Deadline
  • MergerTalk: The Bidding War For Spirit Airlines

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
  • There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list.
  • Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.

Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

By Travis Lundy

  • Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.
  • The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it “supported” while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. 
  • Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next “transparency” likely comes in November. 

Block Deal Sale of KEPCO Engineering & Construction Likely in 2H 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • There has been increased speculation about a potential block deal sale of Kepco Engineering & Construction (052690 KS), driving its share price lower in the past several days.
  • KEPCO owns a 65.77% stake in Kepco Engineering & Construction (052690 KS). 
  • We believe that there could be a further 10-20% downside risk for KEPCO E&C in the coming weeks.

Ashok Leyland (AL IN) | Outperforming but Warrants Caution

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Ashok Leyland (AL IN) ‘s volumes recovered in FY22 thanks to a much milder than expected omicron wave and market share gains.
  • Discounting lead gains, the absence of retail fleet owners in the market, and little excitement around the scrappage policy all warrant caution. 
  • While the stock is currently outperforming, channel feedback and valuations point to caution. 

I Squared/FirstGroup: Looming PUSU Deadline

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • FirstGroup’s Board rejected a 118p + up to 45.6p contingent payment. PUSU deadline is 23 June, and can be extended with the consent of the Panel. 
  • Infrastructure funds have put their sight on UK buses due to predictable revenues and a friendlier regulatory framework. The Board of FirstGroup is aware and should seek higher value.
  • I Square could bid a more palatable 166.8p/share: 144p/share (8.2x EV/Fwd EBIT, average of StageCoach and Go-Ahead transactions), plus 22.8p/share (50% discount to the maximum contingent payout). Long.

MergerTalk: The Bidding War For Spirit Airlines

By Robert Sassoon

  • Jetblue Airways (JBLU US) is going all out to acquire Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) with an increased $33.5/share cash offer, 68% above Frontier Airlines (UCLL US) agreed bid worth $19.99
  • Antitrust risk is a substantial obstacle to both transactional options available to SAVE, but JBLU’s stronger commitment to remedial solutions should be enough to make SAVE board reconsider its position
  • Deal momentum now seems to be moving in favor of JBLU’s vigorous pursuit of SAVE which is starting to make the target’s risk-reward profile look compelling 

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Jun 22
0

United States: Spirit Airlines, Lucid Group, Trade Desk Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • MergerTalk: The Bidding War For Spirit Airlines
  • Race to Survival
  • The Trade Desk ($TTD)

MergerTalk: The Bidding War For Spirit Airlines

By Robert Sassoon

  • Jetblue Airways (JBLU US) is going all out to acquire Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) with an increased $33.5/share cash offer, 68% above Frontier Airlines (UCLL US) agreed bid worth $19.99
  • Antitrust risk is a substantial obstacle to both transactional options available to SAVE, but JBLU’s stronger commitment to remedial solutions should be enough to make SAVE board reconsider its position
  • Deal momentum now seems to be moving in favor of JBLU’s vigorous pursuit of SAVE which is starting to make the target’s risk-reward profile look compelling 

Race to Survival

By subSPAC

  • Electric Vehicle Startup Lucid Motors, the poster child for the SPAC Boom in 2021, has seen its valuation plummet in recent months amidst a string of production & quality control issues, in addition to other demand headwinds.
  • As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and reprices its vehicles.
  • Elon Musk had an ominous warning for EV startup Lucid Motors last week

The Trade Desk ($TTD)

By MT Capital

  • Consumerism has taken the Western World hostage over the course of the last few hundred years.
  • Defined loosely, this term encompasses a general social and economic order that encourages the acquisition of both goods and services in ever-increasing amounts.
  • Capitalism, at its very core, is fundamentally reliant on these behaviour patterns, with the constant and widespread itch for more spurring endless arrays of both corporate and nationwide growth and enrichment. 

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Jun 21
0

Japan: Softbank Group, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Torikizoku and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank – Director Shuffling At The AGM
  • Isn’t the Reason for More Share Buyback Disclosures Before the AGMs to Avoid Discussion by Managers?
  • Torikizoku Holdings (3193): Earnings Forecast Update. Raising Target Price

Softbank – Director Shuffling At The AGM

By Mio Kato

  • With Softbank’s AGM coming up we examine some of the curious events that surround the firm as usual. 
  • Following in the footsteps of former governance director Yuko Kawamoto, VC founder Lip-Bu Tan has also penned a curious resignation message.  
  • Then there are the continuing questions surrounding Kenneth Siegel and his reappointment is not guaranteed in our view.

Isn’t the Reason for More Share Buyback Disclosures Before the AGMs to Avoid Discussion by Managers?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The Nikkei published an article titled “Share Buyback Program Doubles to 4.2 Trillion Yen.” I would like to discuss the issues in the article.
  • I’m concerned that the increased disclosure of share repurchases prior to the June shareholders’ meeting may be a way for management to avoid discussing the path to growth with shareholders.
  • If many companies avoid that discussion and disclose share repurchases for the purpose of ending the AGMs without turbulence, then the question is whether management has a long-term business vision.

Torikizoku Holdings (3193): Earnings Forecast Update. Raising Target Price

By Mita Securities

  • We update our earnings forecast for Torikizoku Holdings (3193, the company) and raise our target price to 2,500 yen. We reiterate our Hold rating.
  • On June 10, the company announced 1-3Q FY7/22 sales of 13.260bn yen (-6.9% YoY), OP of -2.583bn yen (-2.588bn yen in 1-3Q FY7/21), and RP of 1.817bn yen (-2.027bn yen in 1- 3Q FY7/21)
  • We raise our FY7/22 OP forecast from -3.544bn yen to -2.289bn yen (-4.663bn yen in FY7/21), and RP forecast from -575m yen to 2.104bn yen (-315m yen in FY7/21)

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Jun 21
0

India: Policybazaar, Sona BLW Precision Forgings, ICICI Bank Ltd, Apollo Tyres, Shriram Transport Finance, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview
  • Sona Comstar Lock-Up – Blackstone up 17x, Sold Half in the IPO with over US$1bn Left
  • Apollo Tyres – Maintaining FY26 Target of USD5bn Revenue with 12-15% ROCE
  • ICICI Bank – Best Placed
  • Apollo Tyres – Margin Headwinds Owing to Rising RM Prices; Maintain BUY
  • Shriram Transport Finance – FY22 – Annual Report Analysis
  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Sands China Ltd, SJM Holdings, Vedanta Resources

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.
  • We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.

Sona Comstar Lock-Up – Blackstone up 17x, Sold Half in the IPO with over US$1bn Left

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO in Jun 2021. 
  • The shares are now trading well above the IPO price and its largest PE investor, Blackstone, will be released from its lockup soon.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Apollo Tyres – Maintaining FY26 Target of USD5bn Revenue with 12-15% ROCE

By Emkay

  • In its analyst meet, APTY management reiterated its revenue target of USD5bn in FY26, implying a 15% CAGR over FY22-26E vs. a 9% CAGR over FY18-22.
  • Management maintained the ROCE (pre-tax) target at 12-15% by FY26E (7% in FY22), led by better asset turnover and margins.
  • In the near term, cost pressures due to an increase in prices of crude derivatives and a lag in the pass-through of commodity inflation are likely to impact margins.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank – Best Placed

By Nirmal Bang

  • Higher EBLR-linkage places the bank favorably: In the current increasing interest rate environment, ICICI Bank seems well placed given that its loan book has 48% linkage to EBLR compared to 22-46% for most other banks under our coverage.
  • Large Cap banks better placed to transmit systemic rate movements: We had outlined in our note that we see Large Cap banks being better placed in the current rising interest rate cycle given that they are more flexible, nimbler and overall better placed in terms of their ability to transmit systemic rate movements.
  • Expect well-rounded growth given bank’s strong market share: Overall, we expect system credit growth to be well-rounded. Retail growth is expected to be supported by increasing penetration across sub-segments such as mortgages and unsecured loans.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apollo Tyres – Margin Headwinds Owing to Rising RM Prices; Maintain BUY

By Nirmal Bang

  • Market share gains in TBR & PCR led by R&D investment: APTY’s R&D spends have been consistently ahead of competition over the last 5-10 years (Exhibit 5), which is reflected in its better quality TBR and PCR tyres.
  • Demand outlook remains positive: The domestic replacement tyre market is witnessing signs of recovery, led by the PCR and T&B segments.
  • Margin headwinds to persist with elevated crude prices and depreciated INR: Crude derivatives account for ~40% of the RM basket for APTY.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shriram Transport Finance – FY22 – Annual Report Analysis

By Nirmal Bang

  • Focus on digital initiatives for loan disbursement and collection. During FY22, digital collection of loan EMIs and fixed deposits (FD) stood at 27.09% and 11.02%, respectively.
  • Change in policies for NPA tagging and repossession of financial instruments affected profit before tax by Rs4.41bn in FY22.
  • Improvement in funding from banks and higher deposit collections.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Sands China Ltd, SJM Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jun 21
0

South Korea: SK Telecom, Asiana Airlines, Lunit and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • A Detailed Guide About Korea’s FOL Stocks & MSCI Treatments
  • HMM-Like Dilution Event: Korean Air Is Nearly Done, But Asiana Airlines Gearing Up
  • Lunit IPO Preview: A Pioneer in AI-Based Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment Solutions

A Detailed Guide About Korea’s FOL Stocks & MSCI Treatments

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea has a total of 33 FOL stocks. The Korean government restricts foreign ownership in major national infrastructure operators such as broadcasting companies, airlines, and telecommunication companies. 
  • They each have a different FOL % in the range of 0-49.99%, and five are currently included in the MSCI Standard: SKT, LG Uplus, CJ ENM, KEPCO, & KAL.
  • Those located on the borderline that will trigger a meaningful event in the MSCI Standard Index are the three telecom companies: SKT, KT, & LG Uplus.

HMM-Like Dilution Event: Korean Air Is Nearly Done, But Asiana Airlines Gearing Up

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KAL event is almost over. But we still have Asiana Airlines. The KDB’s Asiana CB conversion should also be considered a foregone conclusion.
  • Applying the case of KAL, the KDB will likely file conversion when 30 days have elapsed since receiving the repayment notice. For this, the prevailing local consensus is June 10.
  • Conversion filing on July 8 and listing on July 29 with the 15-day delay rule applied is a likely scenario. Hence, our entry point should be from July 4.

Lunit IPO Preview: A Pioneer in AI-Based Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment Solutions

By Douglas Kim

  • Lunit is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in July. The IPO base deal size is from $42 million to $46 million.
  • Established in 2013, Lunit is one of the leading companies in Korea that specializes in AI-based cancer diagnosis and treatment solutions.
  • Lunit is a pioneer in the medical artificial intelligence industry. The company has developed and commercialized AI-assisted detection solutions that complement human visual limitations through deep learning technology. 

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Jun 21
0

Financials: 2-Year US Treasury Note Futures, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, NFT, Celsius Network, ICICI Bank Ltd, Shriram Transport Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bond Market Monitor: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
  • Isn’t the Reason for More Share Buyback Disclosures Before the AGMs to Avoid Discussion by Managers?
  • Sporting Crypto – June 20th 2022: Building in a Bear Market
  • #30 Two other emperors have no clothes
  • ICICI Bank – Best Placed
  • Shriram Transport Finance – FY22 – Annual Report Analysis

Bond Market Monitor: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By Warut Promboon

  • The Fed’s 75-bp rate hike was widely expected by the market.
  • We expect CT10 of 4% at year end and we see rising risk on the upside now that the war between Russian and Ukraine has no end in sight.
  • Slowing growth and uncontained inflation is spread-negative for Asian bonds, in our view, as rising rates will increase its refinancing risk.

Isn’t the Reason for More Share Buyback Disclosures Before the AGMs to Avoid Discussion by Managers?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The Nikkei published an article titled “Share Buyback Program Doubles to 4.2 Trillion Yen.” I would like to discuss the issues in the article.
  • I’m concerned that the increased disclosure of share repurchases prior to the June shareholders’ meeting may be a way for management to avoid discussing the path to growth with shareholders.
  • If many companies avoid that discussion and disclose share repurchases for the purpose of ending the AGMs without turbulence, then the question is whether management has a long-term business vision.

Sporting Crypto – June 20th 2022: Building in a Bear Market

By Sporting Crypto

The things that are important in the next crypto cycle will be created when the price is low and attention is fleeting. 

Sorare for example is a project that was built during the last time crypto dipped this hard between 2017 and early 2020. 

Through this newsletter, and outside of it, I’m lucky enough that many people reach out with their projects very early on. Some for advice, some to evangelise. 

#30 Two other emperors have no clothes

By Carbono Insights

  • Phase 1 of bear markets is a piece of cake: it feels more like a healthy correction. 
  • Phase 2 looks more is peak chaos and peak pain. It’s when hen things go South bad. 
  • Phase 3 is when tedium kicks in, and people genuinely contemplate their lives’ decisions.

ICICI Bank – Best Placed

By Nirmal Bang

  • Higher EBLR-linkage places the bank favorably: In the current increasing interest rate environment, ICICI Bank seems well placed given that its loan book has 48% linkage to EBLR compared to 22-46% for most other banks under our coverage.
  • Large Cap banks better placed to transmit systemic rate movements: We had outlined in our note that we see Large Cap banks being better placed in the current rising interest rate cycle given that they are more flexible, nimbler and overall better placed in terms of their ability to transmit systemic rate movements.
  • Expect well-rounded growth given bank’s strong market share: Overall, we expect system credit growth to be well-rounded. Retail growth is expected to be supported by increasing penetration across sub-segments such as mortgages and unsecured loans.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shriram Transport Finance – FY22 – Annual Report Analysis

By Nirmal Bang

  • Focus on digital initiatives for loan disbursement and collection. During FY22, digital collection of loan EMIs and fixed deposits (FD) stood at 27.09% and 11.02%, respectively.
  • Change in policies for NPA tagging and repossession of financial instruments affected profit before tax by Rs4.41bn in FY22.
  • Improvement in funding from banks and higher deposit collections.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

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