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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Swire Pacific (A), SBFC Finance Limited, Ethereum, Bharat Highways InVIT, Sunac China Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening
  • SBFC Finance IPO: Forensic Analysis
  • Profitability of Ethereum and a Short-Term Rally Ahead of the Shanghai Upgrade in March
  • Bharat Highways InVIT Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Sunny Optical

StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening

By David Blennerhassett

  • Retailers /hoteliers will welcome the return of Chinese travellers, with ~US$250bn in annual spending. That should bode well for mall operators like Swire Properties and, in turn, Swire Pacific.
  • Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

SBFC Finance IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC123 IN) plans to come up with INR 16 bn IPO which comprises INR 7.5 bn worth of fresh issue.
  • The company is MSME focused NBFC-ND-SI, and has shown attractive growth in AUM, disbursements in the last few years. SBFC also offers loans against gold.
  • However, there are a few perils that must not be overlooked, such as lack of provisioning, low NII growth, mixed peer positioning, and few governance setbacks.

Profitability of Ethereum and a Short-Term Rally Ahead of the Shanghai Upgrade in March

By Edward Wu

  • Ethereum is the only profitable blockchain, a analysis of revenue and expense of Ethereum;
  • Ethereum staking ratio is the lowest among all PoS blockchains and the Shanghai upgrade in March will change this;
  • Why will there be a short-term rally ahead of the Shanghai upgrade?

Bharat Highways InVIT Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Bharat Highways InVIT (BHINV IN) is looking to raise about US$242m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, HDFC Bank and IIFL Securities.
  • Bharat Highways InVIT is an infrastructure investment trust established to acquire, manage and invest in a portfolio of infrastructure assets in India. 
  • The InVIT’s initial asset portfolio will consist of seven road assets, in the states of Punjab, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh with an aggregate length of approximately 497.292km. 

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Sunny Optical

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: SBFC Finance Limited, Bharat Highways InVIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • SBFC Finance IPO: Forensic Analysis
  • Bharat Highways InVIT Pre-IPO Tearsheet

SBFC Finance IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC123 IN) plans to come up with INR 16 bn IPO which comprises INR 7.5 bn worth of fresh issue.
  • The company is MSME focused NBFC-ND-SI, and has shown attractive growth in AUM, disbursements in the last few years. SBFC also offers loans against gold.
  • However, there are a few perils that must not be overlooked, such as lack of provisioning, low NII growth, mixed peer positioning, and few governance setbacks.

Bharat Highways InVIT Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Bharat Highways InVIT (BHINV IN) is looking to raise about US$242m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, HDFC Bank and IIFL Securities.
  • Bharat Highways InVIT is an infrastructure investment trust established to acquire, manage and invest in a portfolio of infrastructure assets in India. 
  • The InVIT’s initial asset portfolio will consist of seven road assets, in the states of Punjab, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh with an aggregate length of approximately 497.292km. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: KT Corp, Korea Kolmar Holdings, LG Household & Health Care-Pref and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Foreign Ownership Limit Stocks in Korea: KT Is Again in the Limelight
  • Korea Kolmar Holdings: Shares Cancellation of 17% of Market Cap + Deep Discount to NAV
  • Discussing the Currently Widened Pref-Ord Disparity in Korea

Foreign Ownership Limit Stocks in Korea: KT Is Again in the Limelight

By Sanghyun Park

  • KT’s foreign room has been rising since early September last year. If this trend continues, it will likely approach the inclusion borderline of 15% within a month or two.
  • This trend is expected to continue for the time being as the tough relationship between the KT CEO and the government seems unlikely to be resolved in the short term.
  • The February inclusion is pretty tight, but May seems like we could be looking out for it.

Korea Kolmar Holdings: Shares Cancellation of 17% of Market Cap + Deep Discount to NAV

By Douglas Kim

  • On 10 January, Korea Kolmar Holdings (024720 KS) announced that it plans to cancel 1.1 million shares to be acquired through redemption of redeemable convertible preferred shares.
  • Korea Kolmar Holdings currently has a market cap of 314 billion won so this share cancellation represents nearly 17% of its market cap.
  • This large shares cancellation should have a positive impact on Korea Kolmar Holdings’ share price. It is also trading at 40% discount to its NAV. 

Discussing the Currently Widened Pref-Ord Disparity in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Many of the PREFERRED shares in Korea entered the short-term oversold territory versus ORDINARY (on a 20-day moving average).
  • The liquidity boom that started in the local bond market at the beginning of the year seems to have led to the relative outperformance of ORDINARY.
  • We should consider collective trading, which utilizes the oversold condition across the entire PREF zone, rather than an individual approach to a specific PREF at this point.

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Daily Brief Australia: Norwest Energy NL and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Norwest Energy Rejects MinRes’ Offer

Norwest Energy Rejects MinRes’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Singapore: Rex International Holding, Creative Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Rex: Diversification or Deworsification?
  • Creative Technology: After the Passing of Founder, Is the Company’s Independence at Stake?

Rex: Diversification or Deworsification?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Rex International Holding (REXI SP) has announced further investments outside of its core oil&gas portfolio both related to its major shareholder. A major red flag.
  • It is unclear whether these investments will bring real value to Rex as minority investors generally hate related party transactions without clear justification.
  • The latest drilling campaign in Oman again encountered operational issues giving fuel to the bears that Rex is not capable of successfully operating its own fields.

Creative Technology: After the Passing of Founder, Is the Company’s Independence at Stake?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Sim Wong Hoo, founder, and CEO of Creative Technology (CREAF SP), passed away last week.
  • Sim Wong Hoo controls 33% of Creative. He has two children but they are not involved in the company. What will happen to his stake is a big unknown. 
  • The IP portfolio of Creative Technology (CREAF SP) could be appealing to other technology companies. Given its large cash position, the Enterprise Value is only 34M USD.

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Daily Brief United States: Ethereum, S&P 500, WD-40 Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Profitability of Ethereum and a Short-Term Rally Ahead of the Shanghai Upgrade in March
  • EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market
  • WDFC: The Floodgates of Inventory

Profitability of Ethereum and a Short-Term Rally Ahead of the Shanghai Upgrade in March

By Edward Wu

  • Ethereum is the only profitable blockchain, a analysis of revenue and expense of Ethereum;
  • Ethereum staking ratio is the lowest among all PoS blockchains and the Shanghai upgrade in March will change this;
  • Why will there be a short-term rally ahead of the Shanghai upgrade?

EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market

By Simon Harris

  • US CPI data is due on Thursday 12th January and is likley to be another important data point
  • SPX Index is down nearly 5% since November and NDX Index is down nearly 8% over the same period
  • We look for short-term trading opportunities in the options market

WDFC: The Floodgates of Inventory

By Hamed Khorsand

  • WDFC reported fiscal first quarter (November 2022) results where sales declined more than expected while past price increases helped gross margin rebound from the August quarter
  • WDFC’s inventory maintained its incline reaching a new record and is now $119.1 million. We believe WDFC’s inventory hides the true cost of the business
  • The lack of demand remains a headwind that is leading to higher inventory levels. The scale of increase in inventory should continue to play a factor on WDFC’s earnings quality

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Daily Brief China: Swire Pacific (A), Huazhu Group, China Internet Investment Finance Holdings, Xiabuxiabu Catering Mgt Chn Hldgs, China Education Group, Alibaba (ADR), Sunac China Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening
  • H World (HTHT) Follow-On Offering – A More Genuine Need
  • Bubble Warning: China Internet Investment (810 HK) Suspended
  • Xiabuxiabu (520 HK): GA Clean-Up Trade Not a Concern
  • China Education Group (CEG) Completed the Placement for Potential M&As
  • Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Sunny Optical

StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening

By David Blennerhassett

  • Retailers /hoteliers will welcome the return of Chinese travellers, with ~US$250bn in annual spending. That should bode well for mall operators like Swire Properties and, in turn, Swire Pacific.
  • Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

H World (HTHT) Follow-On Offering – A More Genuine Need

By Sumeet Singh

  • H World Group (HTHT US) aims to raise around US$260m via a follow-on ADS offering.
  • The company plans to use the proceeds mostly for investment. This will be the first deal by the company post its H-share listing in 2020.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

Bubble Warning: China Internet Investment (810 HK) Suspended

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Internet Investment Finance Holdings (810 HK) (CII), an investment manager, is currently suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
  • CII has thrice responded to unusual price action in its share price in the past four months. Shares are up a staggering ~1,000% in the past six months.
  • This insight provides some background information on CII. Trading at 64x book value, this is one avoidable company. 

Xiabuxiabu (520 HK): GA Clean-Up Trade Not a Concern

By Eric Chen

  • Company’s second largest shareholder General Atlantic sold out entire holdings at 5.9% to 6.4% discount to Monday close. 
  • The placement reflected mainly General Atlantic’s attempt to time market to recoup a 10-year investment instead of any negative read of company fundamentals, in our view.
  • Recent newsflow continues pointing to steady recovery in all business lines of Xiabu group.  Its valuation discount relative to peers  has not captured strong turnaround prospects. Sector top pick. 

China Education Group (CEG) Completed the Placement for Potential M&As

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • China Education Group (CEG) completed the placement of HKD1.61bn on Jan 9.
  • CEG used to do 2-3 M&As per year and had a decent track record.
  • CEG also has chances to acquire public companies or their assets.

Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. 
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Sunny Optical

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: MatsukiyoCocokara, Fast Retailing, Visional and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR Preview: Nearing the Start of the Review Period
  • Fast Retailing: Another Beat Would Suggest That FR’s North America & Europe Expansion Is Viable
  • HRTech Sector Series: Hybrid Work Models and Metaverse to See More Prominence in 2023

MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR Preview: Nearing the Start of the Review Period

By Brian Freitas

  • We expect a number of changes to the MSCI Standard indices for the Asia Pacific region at the first Quarterly Comprehensive Index Review to be implemented on 28 February.
  • As usual, most changes are expected in China with a smattering of adds and deletes for the other markets.
  • On average, the adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few weeks and months and pre-positioning should continue for the next couple of weeks.

Fast Retailing: Another Beat Would Suggest That FR’s North America & Europe Expansion Is Viable

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Although it looks quite challenging, we think Fast Retailing (9983 JP) should beat consensus when it reports 1QFY23 results on 12th Jan 2023.
  • We think shares could briefly touch 2021 highs on a relatively strong beat as it would suggest that the company’s aggressive expansion plans in North America and Europe are viable.
  • Thus, we would look to buy Fast Retailing with a short investment horizon. We see considerable downside risks over a full-year period.

HRTech Sector Series: Hybrid Work Models and Metaverse to See More Prominence in 2023

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • This is the Third of HRTech sector series and the four companies that we have covered under this series have since reported earnings.
  • HRTech market has undergone rapid changes and 2023 will bring in more value to the recent transformation such as Hybrid work models and metaverse that the industry has witnessed.
  • Of the four companies, except for Recruit, other three continues to perform positively with Visional recording the highest growth among the four.

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Daily Brief ESG: A Company Invested by an Activist Should Understand that It’s Not Fully Exploiting Its Potential and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • A Company Invested by an Activist Should Understand that It’s Not Fully Exploiting Its Potential

A Company Invested by an Activist Should Understand that It’s Not Fully Exploiting Its Potential

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since the median P/B of companies listed on TSE is 1.0, Japanese companies will continue to attract the keen attention of activist investors around the world.
  • Many Japanese managers can rest on their laurels with share prices that don’t command premium because of silent shareholders like cross-holding and BoJ that little care about share price performance.
  • There are many companies that publish management strategies that only give a sense of doing, and the stock price does not fall but keeps not significantly outperforming.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Meilan Airport (357 HK): A Strategic Asset to Ride on Hainan DFS Investment Theme and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Meilan Airport (357 HK): A Strategic Asset to Ride on Hainan DFS Investment Theme
  • Ant Group – Headlines Overwhelmingly Positive & Hides Micro Loans Business’ Value
  • Eisai Co (4523 JP): Alzheimer’s Drug Gets FDA Approval; Focus Is Now on the Path Forward
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Still Significant Upside After Surging
  • Align Partners’ Corporate Activism on Korean Banks: A Media Presentation and Q&A Session
  • Giftee: Digital Gifting Surges for Consumer Businesses
  • Modern Dental Group (3600.HK)- 2023 Harsh Reality Is Hard to Avoid, but Short-Term Rally Is Possible
  • XPER: CES and a New Catalyst
  • Tractor Supply Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Sporting Crypto – Top 3 Web3 Trends for the Sports Industry in 2023

Meilan Airport (357 HK): A Strategic Asset to Ride on Hainan DFS Investment Theme

By Eric Chen

  • Meilan Airport is both a strategic asset and a key beneficiary in China’s blueprint for Hainan. The hub holds an indispensable yet underappreciated position in Hainan’s DFS market.
  • While jump in depreciation and plunging passenger traffic in 2022 dealt heavy blow to the company, they also pave the way for a strong turnaround as re-opening revives travel demand.
  • We expect the company’s net profit to reach RMB600 million in 2023 and further double to RMB1.2 billion by 2025, driving share price to double in three years.

Ant Group – Headlines Overwhelmingly Positive & Hides Micro Loans Business’ Value

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • News headlines on Ant Group are overwhelmingly positive these days and they try to hide the fact that the consumer finance business is worth just 1/2 of last year’s value.
  • We think the main reason why markets are so optimistic these days is that they seem to think that regulatory crackdowns on the platform economy are finally over.
  • With Jack Ma surrendering control of Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) just a few days ago, could anybody say that regulatory pressure is really over?

Eisai Co (4523 JP): Alzheimer’s Drug Gets FDA Approval; Focus Is Now on the Path Forward

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) received speedy regulatory nod for Alzheimer’s drug LEQEMBI. Treatment with LEQEMBI should be initiated in patients with mild cognitive impairment or dementia stage of disease.
  • LEQEMBI will be available during or before the week of January 23, 2023. Eisai decided to price LEQEMBI at WAC of $26,500 per year to promote broader patient access.
  • Eisai has submitted a supplemental Biologics License Application to the FDA supporting the conversion of the Accelerated Approval of LEQEMBI to a traditional approval.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Still Significant Upside After Surging

By Ming Lu

  • A state-owned company invested in Ant Group which was also founded by Jack Ma.
  • We believe both the revenue growth rate and the operating margin will rise in following quarters.
  • We believe the stock price still has significant upside even after the surge in past four trading days.

Align Partners’ Corporate Activism on Korean Banks: A Media Presentation and Q&A Session

By Douglas Kim

  • Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) held a media presentation and a Q&A session with both the investors community and the media today.
  • Align Partners’ corporate activism of the Korean banks has been one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market this year.
  • The Korean banks are likely to outperform the market in 1H23. Nonetheless, if there are further signs of housing price declines in Korea, this outperformance may not continue in 2H23. 

Giftee: Digital Gifting Surges for Consumer Businesses

By Michael Causton

  • The gift market has contracted in recent years as corporate and formal gift giving has declined, but companies and individuals are enthusiastic adopters of digital gifting thanks to the convenience. 
  • Businesses, in particular, are using eGifts as marketing and promotion tools and Giftee is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend. 
  • The convenience and low cost of these services suggests considerable potential for expansion going forward, even if the consumer online gift market will increasingly be owned by LINE.

Modern Dental Group (3600.HK)- 2023 Harsh Reality Is Hard to Avoid, but Short-Term Rally Is Possible

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Modern Dental Group (MDG) disclosed selected unaudited operational data for 22Q1-Q3. The negative trend on performance would continue to 22Q4. The overall 2022 performance of MDG would show a negative growth.
  • We may face a situation where both domestic and external demand would weaken in 2023. MDG’s overseas revenue is expected to see a bigger YoY decline than domestic revenue.
  • There would be strong expectations but weak realities in 2023Q1-Q2, during which MDG’s share price could rally in short term, but it’s not based on the improvement of its fundamentals.

XPER: CES and a New Catalyst

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER used the CES event this year to make several news announcements, but the biggest news for XPER was the one released by Roku Inc. (ROKU).
  • The ROKU announcement causes TiVo being the only independent TV operating system. We believe this could result in XPER establishing greater market share for its TVOS than originally expected
  • During CES Verstel introduced a series of TVs under multiple brands that would use TiVo TVOS. Additionally, XPER revealed more automakers that are releasing car models with AutoSense and AutoStage

Tractor Supply Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Tractor Supply Company, a major rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S. catering to recreational farmers and ranchers.
  • It delivered a mixed quarter, missing out on the revenue expectations of analysts but managing an earnings beat.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Tractor Supply Company with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Sporting Crypto – Top 3 Web3 Trends for the Sports Industry in 2023

By Sporting Crypto

  • What better way to start the year than to make a fool of myself by predicting some trends for 2023?
  • Forecasting or predicting anything is extremely difficult and the further out you go, the less accurate you can be.
  • That’s even the case with weather with ~ 90% accuracy on 5-day forecasts and 50% on 10-day forecasts.

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