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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Warrego Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Warrego (WGO AU) Bidding War Between Strike (STX AU) And Beach (BPT AU)

Warrego (WGO AU) Bidding War Between Strike (STX AU) And Beach (BPT AU)

By Arun George

  • Beach Energy (BPT AU)’s all-cash proposal is A$0.20 per share and Strike Energy (STX AU)’s all-scrip proposal is 0.775x STX shares per Petrel Energy (WGO AU) share. 
  • BPT’s all-cash offer provides value certainty. On the other hand, STX’s all-scrip offer lets shareholders get exposure to 100% interest in the West Erregulla project.
  • Both offers are reasonable but far from knockout bids, which suggests room for a further bidding round. At the last close, BPT’s offer is 3.2% higher than STX’s offer.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Prodia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – A Standout in Diagnostics

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – A Standout in Diagnostics

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) is a stand out amongst Indonesia’s healthcare players given it is the only company in Indonesia with accreditation from the College of American Pathologists. 
  • 3Q2022 reflected a normalisation of the testing business towards routine testing but at higher levels, and with a greater variety of tests with more advanced levels of digitalisation. 
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) stands out in terms of its strong market positioning and track record together with attractive valuations, especially versus Indian peers in the diagnostic space.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Delhivery, Sumitomo Precision Products, Golden Energy & Resources, Caverion Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE All-World/​​​​​All-Cap Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions & Lock-Up Expiry
  • Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp – Likely To Get Done
  • Merger Arb Mondays (14 Nov) – Golden Energy, Perpetual/Pendal, Origin Energy, Warrego, Uzabase
  • North Holdings 3/Caverion: Agreed Takeout

FTSE All-World/​​​​​All-Cap Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions & Lock-Up Expiry

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 4 potential adds, 1 close add and 1 potential delete for the FTSE All-World/All-Cap indices at the upcoming QIR that will be implemented at close on 16 December.
  • The largest impact will be the passive selling on Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) due to a nationality change from Singapore to Ineligible.
  • There is a big lock-up expiry on Delhivery where US$2.89bn of shares will be free for trading on 21 November – that is significantly larger than the potential passive buying.

Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp – Likely To Get Done

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) announced a bid for equity affiliate (they own 27+% but Nippon Steel 15%, top 2 is 40+%) Sumitomo Precision Products (6355 JP). 
  • It’s a one-year high and 4-year high price, and 8x average 10yr EV/EBITDA but 4.6x 2024e EBITDA from the Mid Term Plan. And way below a 10-year high. 
  • This gets done if Retail agrees to the tender. If 50% put in, that should do it. So I expect this gets done.

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Nov) – Golden Energy, Perpetual/Pendal, Origin Energy, Warrego, Uzabase

By Arun George

North Holdings 3/Caverion: Agreed Takeout

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The main shareholders of Caverion (27.08% in aggregate) are joining Bain Capital in a voluntary recommended public €7/share cash tender offer that seems adequate in the short term.
  • Nevertheless the offer price fails to account for the potential of Caverion, in my view. My fair value estimate (comps-based) is €9.01/share, thus an offer sweetening could be likely.
  • I consider it unlikely that the offer will fail, and although the current spread is not so attractive on a rate of return basis, I would be long the shares.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Financials: Dollar Index, Central China Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Country Garden Holdings Co, Longfor Properties

USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.
  • A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).
  • The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Country Garden Holdings Co, Longfor Properties

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Consumer: I-Tail, Seven & I Holdings, Bloomberry Resorts and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • I-Tail Corporation IPO: A Strong 3Q Results Update
  • Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn’t Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado
  • Bloomberry Resorts Corp: 3Q22 Revenue Surge Reinforces Our Strong Buy Guidance

I-Tail Corporation IPO: A Strong 3Q Results Update

By Arun George

Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn’t Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado

By Michael Causton

  • Seven & I has at last agreed to sell the ailing Sogo Seibu chain – although not for enough to offset years of investment with little to show for it.
  • Some hope that this means the start of a house cleaning exercise to rid the group of its multiple under-performing retail assets, leaving a gleaming exemplar of rational efficiency.
  • This is unlikely, especially for the original Ito-Yokado general merchandise chain and a problem given the lack of growth potential in the group’s domestic business.

Bloomberry Resorts Corp: 3Q22 Revenue Surge Reinforces Our Strong Buy Guidance

By Howard J Klein

  • While Macau remains hostage to Beijing’s zero tolerance covid policy, Philippine gaming has taken the lead in ASEAN recovery ramp.
  • The Soliare property at manila has outperformed expectations on the basis of pent up demand beginning to show in domestic player revenue. 
  • CEO Razon has confirmed continuing expansion plans at Cebu and Emerald Bay to be completed before the end of 2023. Both will be accretive to group EBITDA.

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Nov 13
0

Daily Brief United States: Ansys Inc, Etsy Inc, Hubspot Inc, Trimble Navigation and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Ansys Inc: Ansys Gateway On AWS & Other Drivers
  • Etsy Inc: New Image Search Feature & Other Developments
  • HubSpot Inc: New Products & Other Drivers
  • Trimble Inc: Acquisition of B2W Software & Other Drivers

Ansys Inc: Ansys Gateway On AWS & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ansys delivered a positive quarterly result with a strong performance on most key metrics, including revenues, earnings per share, operating margins, and ACV.
  • Semiconductor and high-tech, automotive and ground transportation, and aerospace and defense were again the largest contributors in this quarter.
  • The startup program of the company is growing as the nascent companies are taking advantage of Ansys solutions.

Etsy Inc: New Image Search Feature & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Etsy reported a strong set of results that were beyond market expectations with a strong adjusted EBITDA margin and growth in revenue.
  • Also, it had some early incorporation of buyer interests and taste to create more personalized and predictable recommendations.
  • The company held Etsy Up: Holiday edition, its foremost global holiday kickoff event for sellers all over the world.

HubSpot Inc: New Products & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • HubSpot delivered a good quarterly result with revenue growth beyond market expectations, especially in terms of constant currency.
  • The company also delivered an earnings beat as it added more than 8000 net new customers this quarter.
  • In spite of the more challenging macro environment, HubSpot maintained a healthy growth retention rate largely given its low pricing.

Trimble Inc: Acquisition of B2W Software & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trimble showed a decent organic revenue growth in the last quarter but failed to meet Wall Street expectations on the revenue front.
  • The company’s top-line was impacted by the changes in the foreign exchange rates and it barely managed to meet market expectations regarding earnings.
  • Recurring and software revenue continued to grow at quite a strong rate which is reflected by the sequential acceleration of its organic ARR growth.

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Nov 13
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Golden Energy & Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, Totoku Electric, Uzabase, Golden Energy, Perpetual

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, Totoku Electric, Uzabase, Golden Energy, Perpetual

By David Blennerhassett

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Nov 13
0

Daily Brief China: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Wharf Holdings, Brilliance China Automotive, Alibaba (ADR), C C Land Holdings, Lygend Resources & Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI STD, Jardine C&C, Golden Agri, Delhivery, Origin Energy
  • Brilliance China: Parent Restructuring Overhang May Continue, but Dividends Itself Provide Upside
  • ECM Weekly (13th Nov 2022) – I-Tail, Blibli, Nykaa, PB Fin, Five Star, Archean, GDRs, Axis Bank
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (11 Nov): C C Land, Impro Precision, SingAsia, Pharmaron
  • Lygend Resources & Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI STD, Jardine C&C, Golden Agri, Delhivery, Origin Energy

By Brian Freitas

Brilliance China: Parent Restructuring Overhang May Continue, but Dividends Itself Provide Upside

By Victoria Li

  • No substantive progress is achieved on Brilliance Group’s bankruptcy restructuring so far.
  • Besides estimated max Rmb6 per share, or HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E, shareholders may get more cash dividends in the next few years
  • Our enterprise value analysis shows Brilliance China’s fair value could be as high as HHD21.9 per share, including estimated HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E.

ECM Weekly (13th Nov 2022) – I-Tail, Blibli, Nykaa, PB Fin, Five Star, Archean, GDRs, Axis Bank

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front,  Indian IPOs continue to trickle in, while other regions appear to be waking up from their slumber.
  • There were a few GDR issuances this week, along with another placement in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) and a number of lock-up expiries. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (11 Nov): C C Land, Impro Precision, SingAsia, Pharmaron

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include C C Land Holdings (1224 HK), Impro Precision Industries (1286 HK), and SingAsia Holdings (8293 HK).

Lygend Resources & Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • Lygend Resources & Technology (LR HK) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
  • In this note, we will look at assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Nov 13
0

Daily Brief India: Tata Motors ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

  • Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. 
  • Canada’s Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU), one of Australia’s largest energy companies.
  • This OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. 

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Nov 13
0

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) – Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) – Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

By Arun George

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