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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: Advantest Corp, Softbank Group, KDDI Corp, ZOZO Inc, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Bank of Kyoto and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)
  • Softbank Group – BABA Pressure Has Didi Read Across but a 41% NAV Discount Provides Cushion
  • KDDI (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter as Consumer Predictably Weak
  • Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures
  • Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress
  • When Will Kyoto Bank’s Policy Change?

Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

By Travis Lundy

  • Advantest Corp (6857 JP) yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  
  • They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. 
  • The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.

Softbank Group – BABA Pressure Has Didi Read Across but a 41% NAV Discount Provides Cushion

By Kirk Boodry

  • Alibaba is under pressure again with a direct read-across to Softbank
  • Worries on China regulation are bad news for another Softbank holding DIdi Global as it stands alongside Alibaba as a high-profile regulatory target
  • Alibaba weakness could drive risk pricing (CDS) and the discount  to NAV higher. A silver lining is that discount makes Softbank attractive for investors looking for indirect China exposure

KDDI (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter as Consumer Predictably Weak

By Kirk Boodry

  • Results for the quarter were mixed with a slight miss for profitability despite one-time gains for financial services taken in the quarter
  • Revenue erosion from a reduction in the Rakuten roaming service area was relatively modest whilst there are signs of improvement in erosion from mobile price cuts
  • KDDI will reimburse users ¥7bn (v Redex forecast of ¥10bn) for its network outage earlier this month; the operational impact won’t be clear until Q2 churn is reported

Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures

By Michael Causton

  • Zozo recorded its highest profit ever last year, countering the sceptics once again. 
  • The company has shrugged off the uncertainties surrounding the departure of its founder and, while sticking to its core values, is looking for new growth beyond fashion e-commerce.
  • While there are some headwinds, Zozo has a solid set of strategies in place to offset these and find new growth streams.

Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).
  • Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.
  • Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.

When Will Kyoto Bank’s Policy Change?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The current shareholder structure of Kyoto Bank, where domestic financial institutions are the top shareholders and still continue to hold cross-shareholdings, will make it difficult to pass the shareholder proposal.
  • In environment of continued sluggish bank earnings, the dividend income from policy shareholdings and the huge unrealized gains on stocks are valuable assets for weathering this difficult business environment.
  • Kyoto Bank’s policy will change when the interest rate environment changes and earnings are expected to improve, or when the shareholder structure changes due to a significant reduction in cross-shareholdings.

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Daily Brief United States: Russell 2000 Index, Dropbox Inc, MongoDB Inc, Akamai Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Defining US Risk Inflection
  • Dropbox Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The DocSend Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • MongoDB Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & The Database Industry Boom
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Defining US Risk Inflection

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline.
  • Tech rally reacting to backward earnings. E’s will buckle into a recession. The July risk on rally cycle is closing.
  • NDX 13k and RTY 1,930 are key inflection levels that will drive the global risk cycle ahead of a more turbulent late August to October period.

Dropbox Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The DocSend Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Dropbox, a major player within the cloud storage, file transfer, and e-signature domain.
  • Dropbox is continuing to evolve its core FSS business to drive monetization and improve attention.
  • This quarter, Dropbox has launched its newest version of Dropbox backup that has upgraded management settings and restoration flow.

MongoDB Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & The Database Industry Boom

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on database major, MongoDB.
  • The company delivered yet another all round beat in the previous result with a staggering 57% growth year over year.
  • The revenue generated by Atlas alone increased by 82% year over year and accounted for 60% of MongoDB’s total revenue.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Akamai Technologies, a renowned content delivery network and cloud service provider. the growth in security and computing has been the main driver of revenues for Akamai in the past years but it has been adversely impacted by the U.S. dollar’s sharp increase in value and the slowing of traffic growth in the company’s delivery business.
  • The consistent double-digit growth in security revenue has been driven by Guardicore’s continued outstanding performance and rapid growth in their application security business.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Akamai Technologies is a well-known cybersecurity company, content delivery network, and cloud service provider.
  • The growth in security and computing has been the main driver of revenues for Akamai in the past years but it has been adversely impacted by the U.S. dollar’s sharp increase in value and the slowing of traffic growth in the company’s delivery business.
  • With pandemic-related restrictions being lifted globally and the related tailwinds receding, the company has seen a slower growth rate of traffic on its network in the gaming and OTT verticals.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Industrials: MACA Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • ACS/Thiess/MACA: Generous Premium

ACS/Thiess/MACA: Generous Premium

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Thiess is launching an agreed offer to acquire 100% of MACA Ltd (MLD AU) at AUD 1.025/share, in cash, cum dividend, a 28% premium, 2.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA. Minimum acceptance condition is 90%.
  • Thiess is gaining scale with the acquisition of MACA. I believe that in the future ACS/Hochtief/CIMIC will seek to acquire the whole of Thiess.
  • Gross spread (as of 29 July) is 2.43%, for a deal with high chances to complete. I would be long at this price.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Advantest Corp, Russell 2000 Index, Softbank Group, Wemade Co., Ltd., DailyHunt, KDDI Corp, MongoDB Inc, Dropbox Inc, Akamai Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)
  • Defining US Risk Inflection
  • Softbank Group – BABA Pressure Has Didi Read Across but a 41% NAV Discount Provides Cushion
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 49 Companies in Korea in August 2022
  • Dailyhunt Tearsheet – News For “Bharat”
  • KDDI (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter as Consumer Predictably Weak
  • MongoDB Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & The Database Industry Boom
  • Dropbox Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The DocSend Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

By Travis Lundy

  • Advantest Corp (6857 JP) yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  
  • They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. 
  • The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.

Defining US Risk Inflection

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline.
  • Tech rally reacting to backward earnings. E’s will buckle into a recession. The July risk on rally cycle is closing.
  • NDX 13k and RTY 1,930 are key inflection levels that will drive the global risk cycle ahead of a more turbulent late August to October period.

Softbank Group – BABA Pressure Has Didi Read Across but a 41% NAV Discount Provides Cushion

By Kirk Boodry

  • Alibaba is under pressure again with a direct read-across to Softbank
  • Worries on China regulation are bad news for another Softbank holding DIdi Global as it stands alongside Alibaba as a high-profile regulatory target
  • Alibaba weakness could drive risk pricing (CDS) and the discount  to NAV higher. A silver lining is that discount makes Softbank attractive for investors looking for indirect China exposure

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 49 Companies in Korea in August 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 49 stocks in Korea in August 2022, among which 3 are in KOSPI and 46 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 49 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 49 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Wemade, HPSP, Sungeel Hitech, Wemade Max, and Eoflow. These companies could be exposed to greater selling pressures in August. 

Dailyhunt Tearsheet – News For “Bharat”

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • DailyHunt (1449267D IN) is one of India’s leading vernacular content curation and engagement platforms and also one of the most funded content startups. 
  • Channel interactions indicate a challenging competitive position that requires constant cash burn. 
  • In terms of financials, there is no sight of profitability in the near term. Unless that changes, it is best to remain cautious. 

KDDI (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter as Consumer Predictably Weak

By Kirk Boodry

  • Results for the quarter were mixed with a slight miss for profitability despite one-time gains for financial services taken in the quarter
  • Revenue erosion from a reduction in the Rakuten roaming service area was relatively modest whilst there are signs of improvement in erosion from mobile price cuts
  • KDDI will reimburse users ¥7bn (v Redex forecast of ¥10bn) for its network outage earlier this month; the operational impact won’t be clear until Q2 churn is reported

MongoDB Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & The Database Industry Boom

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on database major, MongoDB.
  • The company delivered yet another all round beat in the previous result with a staggering 57% growth year over year.
  • The revenue generated by Atlas alone increased by 82% year over year and accounted for 60% of MongoDB’s total revenue.

Dropbox Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The DocSend Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Dropbox, a major player within the cloud storage, file transfer, and e-signature domain.
  • Dropbox is continuing to evolve its core FSS business to drive monetization and improve attention.
  • This quarter, Dropbox has launched its newest version of Dropbox backup that has upgraded management settings and restoration flow.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Akamai Technologies, a renowned content delivery network and cloud service provider. the growth in security and computing has been the main driver of revenues for Akamai in the past years but it has been adversely impacted by the U.S. dollar’s sharp increase in value and the slowing of traffic growth in the company’s delivery business.
  • The consistent double-digit growth in security revenue has been driven by Guardicore’s continued outstanding performance and rapid growth in their application security business.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Akamai Technologies is a well-known cybersecurity company, content delivery network, and cloud service provider.
  • The growth in security and computing has been the main driver of revenues for Akamai in the past years but it has been adversely impacted by the U.S. dollar’s sharp increase in value and the slowing of traffic growth in the company’s delivery business.
  • With pandemic-related restrictions being lifted globally and the related tailwinds receding, the company has seen a slower growth rate of traffic on its network in the gaming and OTT verticals.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Financials: BFI Finance Indonesia, Agile Property Holdings, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Kwg Property Holding, Bank of Kyoto, Krung Thai Bank Pub and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Pole Position in Multifinance
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Bajaj Finance: Stellar Earnings – In Line with Our Projections
  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022
  • When Will Kyoto Bank’s Policy Change?
  • Thai Banks 2Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Stands Out

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Pole Position in Multifinance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia continued to see rapid momentum behind its recovery with new bookings in 2Q2022 hitting all time highs and spreads improving to 13.5% with NPFs declining.
  • The company’s growth is driven by the non-dealer used vehicle market with new bookings coming mainly through agents and repeat customers, and digital initiatives in place to improve origination.
  • BFIN is the best quality multifinance player in Indonesia, with an ROE now above 21%. There will be more collaboration and synergies with Bank Jago going forward further driving growth.

Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Bajaj Finance: Stellar Earnings – In Line with Our Projections

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) [“BAF”] reported Q1FY23 PAT of approx. INR 2600cr which puts it on track to post INR 11,000cr+ PAT in FY23, in line with our projections. 
  • BAF is back on its pre-COVID growth trajectory as also highlighted in our prior note. Q1FY23 AUM growth came in at 6.2% QoQ and annualized ROE is back to 20%+.
  • The strong Q1FY23 earnings is despite elevated competition in the marketplace which led BAF to forgo business where margin profile was not attractive.

Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lifestyle International Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Tata Motors Ltd
  4. China South City
  5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…


When Will Kyoto Bank’s Policy Change?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The current shareholder structure of Kyoto Bank, where domestic financial institutions are the top shareholders and still continue to hold cross-shareholdings, will make it difficult to pass the shareholder proposal.
  • In environment of continued sluggish bank earnings, the dividend income from policy shareholdings and the huge unrealized gains on stocks are valuable assets for weathering this difficult business environment.
  • Kyoto Bank’s policy will change when the interest rate environment changes and earnings are expected to improve, or when the shareholder structure changes due to a significant reduction in cross-shareholdings.

Thai Banks 2Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Stands Out

By Victor Galliano

  • The six Thai banks that we cover all have relatively healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; also, positive cost of risk trends support the earnings outlook
  • Of these, Krung Thai Bank stands out, with its low cost of risk, healthy post-provision profitability versus peers and its undemanding valuation multiples along with its low PEG ratio
  • TMBThanchart is one to watch in the deep value category, especially given its attractive cost of risk trends to 2Q22

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Hanwha Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Compact Summary of Hanwha Group Reorganization

Compact Summary of Hanwha Group Reorganization

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hanwha Group announced another large-scale reorganization directly involving Hanwha Corp, Hanwha Aerospace, and Hanwha Impact. Several deal contracts arise, two of which require shareholder approval. However, none grants appraisal rights.
  • The market responded quite positively to this. Direct parties to the reorganization were Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Aerospace, up 7.83% and 19.93%, respectively, on Friday.
  • This event has little room for event trading for its size. We have no choice but to approach this event with outright momentum trading, which inevitably increases the risk-reward ratio.

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Daily Brief Industrials: MACA Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • ACS/Thiess/MACA: Generous Premium

ACS/Thiess/MACA: Generous Premium

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Thiess is launching an agreed offer to acquire 100% of MACA Ltd (MLD AU) at AUD 1.025/share, in cash, cum dividend, a 28% premium, 2.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA. Minimum acceptance condition is 90%.
  • Thiess is gaining scale with the acquisition of MACA. I believe that in the future ACS/Hochtief/CIMIC will seek to acquire the whole of Thiess.
  • Gross spread (as of 29 July) is 2.43%, for a deal with high chances to complete. I would be long at this price.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Amber Enterprises India, ZOZO Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Amber Enterprises India Ltd: Forensic Analysis
  • Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures

Amber Enterprises India Ltd: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Amber Enterprises India (AMBER IN)  is one of the key ODM players in the RAC and related industry.
  • However, there are couple of puzzling forensic takeaways, especially in F22 where company had reported high growth in numbers.
  • These primarily include the rationale behind debt increase, puzzling subsidiary numbers, discrepancy in inventory verification, etc.

Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures

By Michael Causton

  • Zozo recorded its highest profit ever last year, countering the sceptics once again. 
  • The company has shrugged off the uncertainties surrounding the departure of its founder and, while sticking to its core values, is looking for new growth beyond fashion e-commerce.
  • While there are some headwinds, Zozo has a solid set of strategies in place to offset these and find new growth streams.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Cryofocus Medtech (Shanghai), Takeda Pharmaceutical, Samsung Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Cryofocus Medtech (康灃生物科技) Pre-IPO: Unimpressive Fundamentals
  • Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Record-High Semi-Annual Revenue Exceeding KRW1 Trillion

Cryofocus Medtech (康灃生物科技) Pre-IPO: Unimpressive Fundamentals

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Cryofocus Medtech is a China based medical device company with a focus on cryoablation. The company is look to raise $50-100m to list in Hong Kong.
  • We take a quick look at Cryofocus’ key products, including AF cryoablation system and bladder cryoablation system.
  • We think its products are not impressive. Neither does its investor line-ups and management team impress us much.

Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).
  • Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.
  • Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Record-High Semi-Annual Revenue Exceeding KRW1 Trillion

By Tina Banerjee

  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) achieved highest ever semi-annual revenue of KRW 1.62 trillion in H1 2022, with an operating profit of KRW346.1 billion, mainly driven by its contract manufacturing business.
  • At the end of Q2, the company had an order book of $7.9 billion, entailing revenue visibility. Its new plant is on track to start operation in October.
  • Samsung Bioepis has launched first ophthalogy biosimilar in the U.S. in June. Both the CDMO and biosimilar businesses are expected to clock solid annual revenue growth in 2022.

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Most Read: Alibaba Group, Sayona Mining, Bank Jago Tbk PT, LG Energy Solution, SK Hynix, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, Advantest Corp, Luzhou Laojiao Co Ltd A, BFI Finance Indonesia, Renesas Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected
  • IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI
  • Detailing Why LG Energy’s MSCI Index Up-Weight Is November, Not August
  • Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year
  • PSMC Placement – Well Flagged and SI on the Rise, but Momentum Has Been Very Weak
  • Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)
  • China Beverage: Baijiu – The Most Addictive & Profitable Alcoholic Beverage in This Planet?
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Pole Position in Multifinance
  • Renesas (6723) | Buy the Dip

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) currently has a Secondary Listing in Hong Kong and is looking to become dual primary listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
  • The main change will be inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect program where mainland investors will be able to buy the stock.
  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) is capped at 8% in the HSCEI INDEX and is close to 8% of the HSI INDEX, there will be negligible impact on the dividend futures.

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

By Brian Freitas


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
  • There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
  • With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

Detailing Why LG Energy’s MSCI Index Up-Weight Is November, Not August

By Sanghyun Park

  • Expectations are spreading in the market that the free-float rate of LG Energy will increase from 9% to 15% at the MSCI August QIR. However, this possibility is quite low.
  • Only 1.57% will be reflected in this QIR, and 4.26% will be in November. So, the August IR will see 0.59x ADTV, and the November IR will welcome 2.93x ADTV.
  • A conservative approach is still valid for flow trading on LG Energy for now, and a more aggressive approach is needed with long/short trading with LG Chem.

Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year

By Sanghyun Park

  • If short-selling accounts for more than 30% of total daily trade volume, it will be newly designated as an overheated short-selling stock, resulting in a one-day short-selling ban.
  • If the stock price falls by more than 5% on the day of the short-selling restriction, the restriction period is automatically extended by one more day.
  • We should pay attention to a possible increase in the trading volume of single-stock futures (SSF) due to short-selling bans, which can result in a more significant basis distortion.

PSMC Placement – Well Flagged and SI on the Rise, but Momentum Has Been Very Weak

By Clarence Chu

  • Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (6770 TT) (PSMC) is looking to raise US$420m via its GDS offering.
  • The firm is offering 23.3m GDSs (350m common shares at a 1 GDS to 15 common shares ratio) at a 6-9% discount to last close. 
  • The deal is well flagged via both media reports and the company’s announcements. Short interest has been growing in tandem as well.

Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

By Travis Lundy

  • Advantest Corp (6857 JP) yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  
  • They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. 
  • The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.

China Beverage: Baijiu – The Most Addictive & Profitable Alcoholic Beverage in This Planet?

By Douglas Kim

  • Baijiu, the most popular liquor in China, is perhaps one of the most addictive and profitable alcoholic beverages in this planet.
  • The focus of this insight is a pair trade (go long on Luzhou Laojiao and go short on Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery).
  • The major reasons for this pair trade include higher sales growth rate and ROE for Luzhou Laojiao as well as capitalize on the recent share weakness of Luzhou vs Jiangsu.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Pole Position in Multifinance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia continued to see rapid momentum behind its recovery with new bookings in 2Q2022 hitting all time highs and spreads improving to 13.5% with NPFs declining.
  • The company’s growth is driven by the non-dealer used vehicle market with new bookings coming mainly through agents and repeat customers, and digital initiatives in place to improve origination.
  • BFIN is the best quality multifinance player in Indonesia, with an ROE now above 21%. There will be more collaboration and synergies with Bank Jago going forward further driving growth.

Renesas (6723) | Buy the Dip

By Mark Chadwick

  • Renesas stock is down around 8% following quarterly earnings and a very conservative Q3 outlook
  • We think the market is over reacting and believe that Renesas is a key beneficiary of secular growth in auto and industrial electronics
  • The stock trades at a discount to global peers, despite a strong story for improving shareholder returns

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