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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 02
0

Daily Brief China: Li Auto, 3SBio Inc, Kanzhun, Tencent, MedSci Healthcare Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Indexes: Rebalances Today; Recent Trading Data
  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Hair Product Acts as the Savior; Marginal Growth of Flagship Drug
  • Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe
  • Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas
  • Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks

Hang Seng Indexes: Rebalances Today; Recent Trading Data

By Brian Freitas

  • The December rebalance of the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX and HSTECH INDEX takes place at the close today. One-way flow is estimated at HK$8.4bn.
  • There are 3 adds for the HSI INDEX and 4 adds/ 4 deletes for the HSCEI INDEX. There are float changes for a few stocks as well as capping changes. 
  • There is excess volume on most adds/deletes post announcement and short interest has also picked up significantly.

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Hair Product Acts as the Savior; Marginal Growth of Flagship Drug

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mandi, OTC alopecia drug of 3SBio Inc (1530 HK), reported revenue growth of 42% y/y in 1H22 and gained 70bps market share over the last six months.
  • With the resurgence of COVID-19 in China interrupting the regular operations of outpatient services at medical institutions, 3SBio’s performance is expected to be affected in near-term.
  • 3SBio is preparing to launch its new drug nalfuraphine hydrochloride orally disintegrating tablets for liver and kidney disease pruritus in China.

Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe

By Caixin Global

  • The operator of Chinese recruitment app Boss Zhipin reported drops in third-quarter revenue and profit after restarting new user registrations following a nearly one-year suspension as part of a national security probe. 
  • During the three months through September, Nasdaq-listed Kanzhun Ltd.logged a net profit of 211.7 million yuan ($29.8 million), representing a year-on-year drop of 26%
  • The firm generated about 99% of its revenue, or 1.16 billion yuan, from sales of recruitment services to corporate clients — a 2.7% year-on-year decrease.

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.
  • Wednesday’s Volume fell 10% with new price highs.
  • The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.

Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The large physician network is actually the cornerstone for MedSci Healthcare (MHH HK)’s precision omni-channel marketing solutions and RWS solutions, and also the key to support the overall investment logic.
  • In fierce competition, how to retain physician network for a long time, convert them into business value continuously and achieve the high growth trend expected by the market is challenging.
  • In terms of valuation, MedSci’s valuation could be higher than Medlive due to its stronger physician platform solutions business and medical professional network, but could be lower than HUAYIWANG. 

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $7bn Inflows in November and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $7bn Inflows in November
  • Northbound Flows Monthly: $9bn Inflows in November

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $7bn Inflows in November

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
  • We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Country Garden, and outflows from Meituan, ICBC, China Pacific, COSCO Shipping, Xiaomi.

Northbound Flows Monthly: $9bn Inflows in November

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
  • Monthly inflows of $9bn was led by Financials (inflows of $2,658 million), Materials (inflows of $2,286 million), Consumer Discretionary (inflows of $1,779 million). 
  • We highlight inflows into Midea, Zijin Mining, Ping An Insurance, Moutai, Mindray, and outflows from Yangtze Power, Yunnan Energy New Material, Poly Developments, Wingtec, Shenhua.

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Credit: Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs

Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for November 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip
  • The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 41
  • The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 39

Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: To Dog Powell confirms 50bps at the next Fed meeting;  Equities rip as it as a “no stock left behind day”; China COVID sentiment continues to improve. 
  • JAPAN: NKY to add 1-2% today; Yen at 130/USD; Eisai says the 2 deaths not due to their drug-positive; Shippers continue to diversify-MOL goes into Real Estate.

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 41

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Six stocks remain, and eight stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 25%

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 39

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
  • Eight stock remains, and six stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 96% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 48%

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief ECM: Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Lava International IPO: Forensic Analysis
  • Esco Lifesciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains
  • Marketingforce Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation

Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Lava International IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Lava International (9263793Z IN)  is one of the leading end-to-end focused mobile handset and mobile handset Solutions Company based in India, with operations in a number of countries.
  • Major business risk arises from external environment, as Lava is one of the prominent leaders in feature phone segment, where the market is dying. 
  • Key forensic takeaways pertain to ECL provisioning and some absurd trend in line items. There are several discomforts on the governance end as well which must not be ignored.

Esco Lifesciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Esco Lifesciences Group (1891571D SP) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by JP Morgan, BofA and Jefferies.
  • Esco Lifesciences (EL) is a global provider of life sciences, pharmaceutical and bioprocessing tools, with an aim to develop, discover and commercialize technology-driven life sciences, pharmaceutical and bioprocessing tools. 
  • According to CIC, it is the second largest supplier of biosafety cabinets and the third largest supplier of time-lapse incubators globally as measured by revenue in 2021.

Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains

By Clarence Chu

  • Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
  • In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Marketingforce Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Marketingforce Management (MFM HK) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and CCB International. 
  • Marketingforce Management (MFM) is a domestic marketing and sales SaaS solution provider in China and considered the largest in terms of revenue in 2021, according to Frost & Sullivan. 
  • Through its Marketingforce platform, MFM delivers integrated cloud-based solutions that cover the entire marketing and sales management process of enterprises, from content and experience to strategy and management, amongst others. 

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • In this note, we provide an update to our earlier peer comparison and valuations.

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December
  • Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe
  • FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia
  • Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 58 Companies in Korea in December 2022
  • CSI KRX China-Korea: Rebalancing Results from KRX & Flow Trading Considerations
  • FTSE UK Dec 22 Rebal: Quiddity Announcement Day Thoughts
  • Reinhart Edges Stokes In Tussle For Warrego Energy
  • EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT

By Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe

By Travis Lundy

  • In March 2022, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be taken over by equity affiliate stake owner INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) at what was a low price.
  • Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” objected, and bought 25+% of the company, then offered to buy it out 30% higher. Toyo Construction objected.
  • Four months later they finally signed an NDA and then started negotiating. Early in November the target date for a Tender Offer start by YFO was pushed to early December.

FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no adds for the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Asia Index in December. The only deletion is Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU). 
  • Passive trackers are estimated to sell 12x ADV on Home Consortium Ltd at the close 16 December. Short interest is nearly the same and there could be some covering.
  • Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months and still trades more expensive to its peer group.

Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?

By Travis Lundy

  • On 17 Feb 2022, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA wrote about Appier Group (4180 JP) suggesting it was a TOPIX inclusion candidate in the not-distant future.
  • In mid-August 2022, he reiterated his opinion. Three days later, the company said they had applied for TSE Prime membership. We are coming up on the timing for an announcement.
  • It would mean buying, but the shareholder structure is interesting, and intentions are not easy to read. But if they announce imminently, the calendar makes the event even more interesting.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 58 Companies in Korea in December 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 58 stocks in Korea in December 2022, among which 9 are in KOSPI and 49 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 58 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in December and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 58 stocks, the top 5 market cap stocks include HYBE, Kakao Games, WCP, Sillajen, and Duksan Neolux. 

CSI KRX China-Korea: Rebalancing Results from KRX & Flow Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX unveiled the rebalancing results of the CSI KRX China-Korea indices for Korean constituents yesterday.
  • There is still insufficient evidence data to estimate specific passive impact. The previous rebalancing in June showed no clear correlation between constituent changes and price impact.
  • Although it may be risky to trade on this rebalancing, monitoring the correlation of their passive impact at this point, one year after the release, seems worthwhile.

FTSE UK Dec 22 Rebal: Quiddity Announcement Day Thoughts

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2022 Rebalance of the FTSE UK Index series will be based on the closing prices of 29th November 2022. 
  • The results will be announced after market close later today (30th November 2022).
  • Below are Quiddity’s final expectations for index changes and flow parameters for the December 2022 Rebalance event. You have the day to trade this.

Reinhart Edges Stokes In Tussle For Warrego Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has joined the bidding war for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) with a A$0.23/share, all cash, off-market Offer versus Beach Energy (BPT AU)‘s management-backed A$0.20/share Scheme Offer.
  • Hancock has already lodged the Bidder’s Statement. There is no minimum acceptance condition attached to  this offer.
  • Warrego currently recommends Beach’s Offer, subject to no superior proposal emerging. Beach has matching rights under the SID entered into on the 14 November. 

EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have been on a volatile path but are finally gaining some upside momentum
  • Dollar seems to have peaked and USDCNH is retreating with renewed optimism for the Chinese economy reopening. 
  • We revisit the trade and look at potential restructuring options

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Softbank Group (9984 JP) –The Masa Hurdles and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) –The Masa Hurdles
  • FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?
  • A Blessing in Disguise
  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Has Strong Muscle Power; New Seizure Drug Launch in Japan
  • Rakuten (Neutral) – Follow up After Results: Mobile Issues Far from Over
  • Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • BLS International Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Wake up and Smell the Coffee
  • Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen
  • Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ) – A World of Indonesian Themes

Softbank Group (9984 JP) –The Masa Hurdles

By Victor Galliano

  • Masayoshi’s debt with Softbank group is big, and due to the poor performance of SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Masa’s equity interest as a co-investor is now zero
  • Internal hedge fund Northstar, in which Masa has a 33.3% stake, is in liquidation leaving Masa’s share of his Northstar debt to SoftBank at USD1.2bn
  • SoftBank’s collateral on Masa debt includes the Vision Fund 2 equity, as well as SoftBank shares and other personal assets; we expect SoftBank’s NAV discount of c 25% to widen

FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?

By Aaron Gabin

  • First ever ARR miss, and big initial guide down on FY2024 ARR growth: low 30s vs. 37% into the Q. Pretty shocking given Crowdstrike’s track record.
  • Macro Macro Macro – deal close times pushed out for SMBs and Enterprise customers reworking timing of deal starts to match opex budgets.
  • Stock is overly punished down 20% and trading at 9x forward sales for a platform consolidator with 30% FCF margins.

A Blessing in Disguise

By Steven Chen

  • We try to stay away from the fool’s errand of forecasting the economy;
  • But often, we notice that high-quality businesses actually benefit from harsh economic conditions in terms of (long-term) shareholder value;
  • We provided an example of a company that we own to illustrate how.

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Has Strong Muscle Power; New Seizure Drug Launch in Japan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Driven by continued strong performance of Viltepso and other partnered drugs, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)  is expected to report accelerated revenue growth momentum.
  • Viltepso is expected to be the top selling drug of Nippon Shinyaku in FY23. For FY23, the drug is expected to report revenue of ¥14.7 billion (+90% y/y).
  • In November, Nippon Shinyaku launched Fintepla (fenfluramine) for the treatment of seizures in patients with Dravet syndrome (DS) as an add-on therapy to other anti-epileptic medicines in Japan.

Rakuten (Neutral) – Follow up After Results: Mobile Issues Far from Over

By Kirk Boodry

  • Rakuten’s successful junk bond sale means the Rakuten Bank IPO will happen next year and not in December as some had feared
  • More detail on mobile shows that network costs including D&A are 4x that of service revenue and slightly higher QoQ. Roaming alone is higher than service revenue 
  • And that means Rakuten can’t aggressively go after new subscribers unless it wants operating losses to accelerate. Bad for Rakuten but good news for incumbents KDDI, NTT and Softbank. 

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Balrampur Chini Mills (BRCM IN) is one of the major integrated sugar manufacturing companies in India. Besides sugar, the company also engages in the business of ethanol and power generation.
  • Balrampur has managed to turnaround its free cash flows and earnings quality. Additionally, it has also stabilized working capital on the back of declining debt. 
  • While there are not many red flags, care must be given to inventory reconciliation with bank statement.

BLS International Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • BLS International Services (BLSIN IN) is engaged in business of providing outsourcing and administrative task of Visa, Passport and Consular services to various Diplomatic Missions across the world.
  • BLS is troubled with several forensic discomforts. One should take into account the discomforts on the subsidiaries end and other linked entities like DSS Gulf Realtors.
  • Other forensic setbacks include alarming bad debts, misstatement of operating cash flows and several grey areas pertaining to disclosure norms followed by the company.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Wake up and Smell the Coffee

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) ‘s production data provides more questions than answers.
  • The drop in production for Thar and XUV 700 in October in spite of the high order backlog is surprising. 
  • Considering the industry outlook and the existing sales and production for these two models, we believe this demand forecast may not materialise

Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Alibaba Health reported 1HFY03/2023 results on Monday. Revenue increased 22.9% YoY to RMB11.5bn and reported an adjusted net profit of RMB350m vs net loss of RMB283m reported in 1HFY03/2022.
  • Adjusted operating loss for the quarter decreased to RMB30m compared to RMB586m reported in the same quarter last year.
  • Ali Health’s fulfilment and S&M costs were the highest among peers and cutting down these costs has helped the company reduce its operating losses.

Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ) – A World of Indonesian Themes

By Angus Mackintosh

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Macro: EA: Inflation Dip Concentrated in Nov-22 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EA: Inflation Dip Concentrated in Nov-22

EA: Inflation Dip Concentrated in Nov-22

By Phil Rush

  • Flash EA inflation in Nov-22 was unusual for breaking the upside trend with an outcome that undershot expectations by a substantial amount (43bps for us).
  • The reliance on energy prices in the Netherlands and Belgium weakens the fall’s significance. Other national news was relatively symmetrical, including in the core.
  • ECB policymakers should be reassured by the lack of upside while slowing hikes against excessive underlying pressures. Risks to hiking 50bp in Dec-22 no longer skew up.

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Dec 01
0

Most Read: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Yum China Holdings Inc, Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group, Toyo Construction, Sunshine Insurance, Home Consortium Ltd, Appier Group, HYBE, Posco Chemical Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)
  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December
  • Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe
  • Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) IPO – Index Inclusion Timeline
  • FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia
  • Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 58 Companies in Korea in December 2022
  • Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip
  • CSI KRX China-Korea: Rebalancing Results from KRX & Flow Trading Considerations

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)

By Brian Freitas

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT

By Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe

By Travis Lundy

  • In March 2022, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be taken over by equity affiliate stake owner INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) at what was a low price.
  • Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” objected, and bought 25+% of the company, then offered to buy it out 30% higher. Toyo Construction objected.
  • Four months later they finally signed an NDA and then started negotiating. Early in November the target date for a Tender Offer start by YFO was pushed to early December.

Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) IPO – Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK) is looking to raise between US$859m-US$950m by selling 1.15bn shares in its IPO. At the top end, the company will be valued at HK$74bn.
  • All of the pre-IPO shares are Domestic Shares and there appear to be no immediate plans to convert them to H-shares. The only H-shares will be the IPO shares.
  • MSCI China inclusion requires a higher stock price or conversion of Domestic Shares to H-shares; FTSE inclusion is likely in June; HSCI and Stock Connect inclusion is expected in March.

FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no adds for the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Asia Index in December. The only deletion is Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU). 
  • Passive trackers are estimated to sell 12x ADV on Home Consortium Ltd at the close 16 December. Short interest is nearly the same and there could be some covering.
  • Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months and still trades more expensive to its peer group.

Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?

By Travis Lundy

  • On 17 Feb 2022, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA wrote about Appier Group (4180 JP) suggesting it was a TOPIX inclusion candidate in the not-distant future.
  • In mid-August 2022, he reiterated his opinion. Three days later, the company said they had applied for TSE Prime membership. We are coming up on the timing for an announcement.
  • It would mean buying, but the shareholder structure is interesting, and intentions are not easy to read. But if they announce imminently, the calendar makes the event even more interesting.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 58 Companies in Korea in December 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 58 stocks in Korea in December 2022, among which 9 are in KOSPI and 49 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 58 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in December and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 58 stocks, the top 5 market cap stocks include HYBE, Kakao Games, WCP, Sillajen, and Duksan Neolux. 

Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: To Dog Powell confirms 50bps at the next Fed meeting;  Equities rip as it as a “no stock left behind day”; China COVID sentiment continues to improve. 
  • JAPAN: NKY to add 1-2% today; Yen at 130/USD; Eisai says the 2 deaths not due to their drug-positive; Shippers continue to diversify-MOL goes into Real Estate.

CSI KRX China-Korea: Rebalancing Results from KRX & Flow Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX unveiled the rebalancing results of the CSI KRX China-Korea indices for Korean constituents yesterday.
  • There is still insufficient evidence data to estimate specific passive impact. The previous rebalancing in June showed no clear correlation between constituent changes and price impact.
  • Although it may be risky to trade on this rebalancing, monitoring the correlation of their passive impact at this point, one year after the release, seems worthwhile.

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Utilities: China Water Affairs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs

Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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