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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief India: Balrampur Chini Mills, BLS International Services, ABM Investama, Lava International, Mahindra & Mahindra and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • BLS International Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis
  • Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Lava International IPO: Forensic Analysis
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Wake up and Smell the Coffee

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Balrampur Chini Mills (BRCM IN) is one of the major integrated sugar manufacturing companies in India. Besides sugar, the company also engages in the business of ethanol and power generation.
  • Balrampur has managed to turnaround its free cash flows and earnings quality. Additionally, it has also stabilized working capital on the back of declining debt. 
  • While there are not many red flags, care must be given to inventory reconciliation with bank statement.

BLS International Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • BLS International Services (BLSIN IN) is engaged in business of providing outsourcing and administrative task of Visa, Passport and Consular services to various Diplomatic Missions across the world.
  • BLS is troubled with several forensic discomforts. One should take into account the discomforts on the subsidiaries end and other linked entities like DSS Gulf Realtors.
  • Other forensic setbacks include alarming bad debts, misstatement of operating cash flows and several grey areas pertaining to disclosure norms followed by the company.

Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for November 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Lava International IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Lava International (9263793Z IN)  is one of the leading end-to-end focused mobile handset and mobile handset Solutions Company based in India, with operations in a number of countries.
  • Major business risk arises from external environment, as Lava is one of the prominent leaders in feature phone segment, where the market is dying. 
  • Key forensic takeaways pertain to ECL provisioning and some absurd trend in line items. There are several discomforts on the governance end as well which must not be ignored.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Wake up and Smell the Coffee

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) ‘s production data provides more questions than answers.
  • The drop in production for Thar and XUV 700 in October in spite of the high order backlog is surprising. 
  • Considering the industry outlook and the existing sales and production for these two models, we believe this demand forecast may not materialise

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Daily Brief China: Yum China Holdings Inc, Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group, Lygend Resources & Technology, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), ABM Investama, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Sunshine Insurance, Weilong Delicious Global, WuXi AppTec Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December
  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut
  • EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited
  • Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains
  • Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation
  • WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) – Interpretation of the Recent Proposed Disposal of A Shares

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT

By Brian Freitas


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December

By Brian Freitas


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have been on a volatile path but are finally gaining some upside momentum
  • Dollar seems to have peaked and USDCNH is retreating with renewed optimism for the Chinese economy reopening. 
  • We revisit the trade and look at potential restructuring options

Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for November 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Alibaba Health reported 1HFY03/2023 results on Monday. Revenue increased 22.9% YoY to RMB11.5bn and reported an adjusted net profit of RMB350m vs net loss of RMB283m reported in 1HFY03/2022.
  • Adjusted operating loss for the quarter decreased to RMB30m compared to RMB586m reported in the same quarter last year.
  • Ali Health’s fulfilment and S&M costs were the highest among peers and cutting down these costs has helped the company reduce its operating losses.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains

By Clarence Chu

  • Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
  • In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • In this note, we provide an update to our earlier peer comparison and valuations.

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) – Interpretation of the Recent Proposed Disposal of A Shares

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi AppTec announced its proposed disposal of A Shares again. Investors’re worried about the signal behind – Performance growth has reached certain limit. There’s the possibility of a turning point.
  • Such proposed disposal (regardless of share price) could continue to weigh on the valuation performance of the whole CXO sector – There is still “bubble” in share price.
  • In fact, Li Ge (Founder of WuXi AppTec) knows CXO industry much better than anyone, when he decides to resolutely reduce his shareholding, it is very telling. 

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Daily Brief United States: Crowdstrike Holdings Inc, Credit Acceptance, Oracle Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?
  • A Blessing in Disguise
  • Oracle: What To Expect As It Reports Q2 2023 Results

FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?

By Aaron Gabin

  • First ever ARR miss, and big initial guide down on FY2024 ARR growth: low 30s vs. 37% into the Q. Pretty shocking given Crowdstrike’s track record.
  • Macro Macro Macro – deal close times pushed out for SMBs and Enterprise customers reworking timing of deal starts to match opex budgets.
  • Stock is overly punished down 20% and trading at 9x forward sales for a platform consolidator with 30% FCF margins.

A Blessing in Disguise

By Steven Chen

  • We try to stay away from the fool’s errand of forecasting the economy;
  • But often, we notice that high-quality businesses actually benefit from harsh economic conditions in terms of (long-term) shareholder value;
  • We provided an example of a company that we own to illustrate how.

Oracle: What To Expect As It Reports Q2 2023 Results

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Oracle’s share price drop presented a good opportunity for long-term shareholders to average down.
  • Lagging analysts’ sentiment still presents an opportunity for future multiple repricing.
  • Headwinds for profitability will likely be an issue for investors with short-term investment horizons.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction, Softbank Group, Appier Group, Nippon Shinyaku, Rakuten Inc, Sky Perfect Jsat and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe
  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) –The Masa Hurdles
  • Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?
  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Has Strong Muscle Power; New Seizure Drug Launch in Japan
  • Rakuten (Neutral) – Follow up After Results: Mobile Issues Far from Over
  • Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q2 Follow up Plus Amazon Proof of Concept for Space Compass

Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe

By Travis Lundy

  • In March 2022, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be taken over by equity affiliate stake owner INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) at what was a low price.
  • Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” objected, and bought 25+% of the company, then offered to buy it out 30% higher. Toyo Construction objected.
  • Four months later they finally signed an NDA and then started negotiating. Early in November the target date for a Tender Offer start by YFO was pushed to early December.

Softbank Group (9984 JP) –The Masa Hurdles

By Victor Galliano

  • Masayoshi’s debt with Softbank group is big, and due to the poor performance of SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Masa’s equity interest as a co-investor is now zero
  • Internal hedge fund Northstar, in which Masa has a 33.3% stake, is in liquidation leaving Masa’s share of his Northstar debt to SoftBank at USD1.2bn
  • SoftBank’s collateral on Masa debt includes the Vision Fund 2 equity, as well as SoftBank shares and other personal assets; we expect SoftBank’s NAV discount of c 25% to widen

Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?

By Travis Lundy

  • On 17 Feb 2022, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA wrote about Appier Group (4180 JP) suggesting it was a TOPIX inclusion candidate in the not-distant future.
  • In mid-August 2022, he reiterated his opinion. Three days later, the company said they had applied for TSE Prime membership. We are coming up on the timing for an announcement.
  • It would mean buying, but the shareholder structure is interesting, and intentions are not easy to read. But if they announce imminently, the calendar makes the event even more interesting.

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Has Strong Muscle Power; New Seizure Drug Launch in Japan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Driven by continued strong performance of Viltepso and other partnered drugs, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)  is expected to report accelerated revenue growth momentum.
  • Viltepso is expected to be the top selling drug of Nippon Shinyaku in FY23. For FY23, the drug is expected to report revenue of ¥14.7 billion (+90% y/y).
  • In November, Nippon Shinyaku launched Fintepla (fenfluramine) for the treatment of seizures in patients with Dravet syndrome (DS) as an add-on therapy to other anti-epileptic medicines in Japan.

Rakuten (Neutral) – Follow up After Results: Mobile Issues Far from Over

By Kirk Boodry

  • Rakuten’s successful junk bond sale means the Rakuten Bank IPO will happen next year and not in December as some had feared
  • More detail on mobile shows that network costs including D&A are 4x that of service revenue and slightly higher QoQ. Roaming alone is higher than service revenue 
  • And that means Rakuten can’t aggressively go after new subscribers unless it wants operating losses to accelerate. Bad for Rakuten but good news for incumbents KDDI, NTT and Softbank. 

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q2 Follow up Plus Amazon Proof of Concept for Space Compass

By Kirk Boodry

  • We are publishing updated forecasts and commentary for Sky Perfect after meeting the company post-results 
  • Media results were predictably weak but the company hopes to make up ground in H2 as it ramps up marketing spend to support sport packages that launch in Spring
  • Amazon’s reveal that it has tested LEO-based satellite software highlights cloud platform interest in space ICT infrastructure like that being pursued by Sky Perfect JSAT and NTT

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Daily Brief ESG: Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs?

Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There are 236 companies with a trading unit of more than 500,000 yen, while there are 967 companies with a trading unit of less than 50,000 yen on the TSE.
  • It’s fair to amend the law to abolish the share unit system, but changing the law takes time. It’s also unclear why “between 50,000 yen and 500,000 yen” is appropriate.
  • While TSE still allows 300 companies that don’t meet the listing criteria to be listed on prime market, TSE requires companies with higher stock prices to increase their administrative burden.

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Daily Brief ECM: Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag
  • Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other
  • Fangzhou Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO – Needs to Correct by Only 50%

Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag

By Ethan Aw

  • Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) aims to sell a US$145m block. Its recent price momentum is strong but past deals have shown mixed results. 
  • The deal doesn’t appear to be well flagged and is a relatively large one to digest, representing 20.9 days of its three month ADV.  
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Fangzhou Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Fangzhou Group (FANGZHOU HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Citibank, UBS and ABC International. 
  • Fangzhou Group is an online chronic disease management platform in China, considered the largest in terms of average MAU in 2021, according to CIC.
  • It focuses on common and chronic diseases such as hypertension, cardiovascular and respiratory chronic diseases, providing tailored medical care and precision medicine covering the full disease cycle for patients.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
  • In Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group’s declining investment yield.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO – Needs to Correct by Only 50%

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise around US$950m in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Replicating a CTA Via Factor Exposures and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Replicating a CTA Via Factor Exposures

Replicating a CTA Via Factor Exposures

By Nicolas Rabener

  • Strategies can be copied by recreating them from scratch or using factor exposures
  • CTAs can be replicated via factor exposure analysis by utilizing only 4 asset classes
  • Not a perfect replication, but surprisingly good given the limited input

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSCEI Buy Entry Met and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Buy Entry Met
  • Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

HSCEI Buy Entry Met

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our call has centered around buying a dip in HK at HSCEI 5,800 and HSI 17,000 for a final upside drive into December to form at top.
  • H shares (our long vehicle) – Met 5,800 long entry. 6,030 is the level to clear and hold above. PT at 6,600 just under the 6,700 MT barrier.
  • Macro trend remains down. HSI 19,400 represents an excellent short opportunity for Q1 weakness. December is touted to be a topping/ range ahead of a more bearish Q1.

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

By Joe Jasper

  • Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
  • We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
  • We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong, YiChang HEC ChangJiang
  • Good Morning Japan | Powell in Focus: Big Bets off the Table
  • China NEV Outlook: Life After Subsidies Is Still Beautiful
  • Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022
  • Asia Gaming: Macau Renews 6 Concessionaires Licenses Building a Bull Catalyst into Sector Stocks

Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong, YiChang HEC ChangJiang

By David Blennerhassett

  • To date, 52 companies listed in Hong Kong have sought the conversion of their PRC domestic (and unlisted foreign shares) into H-shares.
  • This mechanism, ostensibly, enables founders or major shareholders holding unlisted domestic shares to float (and sell) shares, improving a company’s corporate governance and stock liquidity, ultimately increasing a company’s valuation.
  • Or in the case of China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK), the conversion restored its minimum public float.

Good Morning Japan | Powell in Focus: Big Bets off the Table

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW/LIKE TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: Powell in focus – little risk appetite; Semi 2023 forecast; China to vaccinate seniors – drives China-listed rally; iPhone Production hit up to ~$8bn;
  • JAPAN: USDJPY ¥138.69; NKY Fut -0.2% ahead of Powell speech; JGB 10Y hit 0.25%-BOJ shift soon ?; Sony =>the Metaverse; JP Bank invests ¥100bn in start-ups; Nomura cuts costs

China NEV Outlook: Life After Subsidies Is Still Beautiful

By Victoria Li

  • Despite the remaining EV subsidies finishing next year, we expect demand to be relatively unimpacted
  • Battery supply issues should be eased with Covid lockdowns easing and new capacity expansions
  • >100 new models due for launch in 2023E vs ~70 in 2022 and will keep potential customers and market excited in the sector

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.
  • 60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.
  • Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.

Asia Gaming: Macau Renews 6 Concessionaires Licenses Building a Bull Catalyst into Sector Stocks

By Howard J Klein

  • Lingering bearish speculation about Beijing pressures for Macau to oust US based gaming operators proved wrong. All were renewed.
  • Genting’s last minute wild card application was rejected indicating Macau has opted for long term stability with existing operators.
  • One major headwind remains: China’s travel bans with no duration predictable despite growing public unrest due to growing damage to macro economy and public income streams.

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Daily Brief Credit: Twitter’s Banks Are Stuck With Largest Chunk Of Unsold LBO Debt and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Twitter’s Banks Are Stuck With Largest Chunk Of Unsold LBO Debt
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

Twitter’s Banks Are Stuck With Largest Chunk Of Unsold LBO Debt

By Vicki Bryan

  • Twitter’s banks are stuck with 30% of total US LBO debt unsold debt.
  • The banks already had lost more than $500 million on Twitter’s LBO debt even before the deal closed. They could sell it even at 50-60 cents on the dollar.
  • The trouble with Elon aggressively blowing up Twitter is that it’s banks probably won’t take his calls when Twitter needs more cash—which it probably will in the near future.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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