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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Japan: Seven & I Holdings, Renesas Electronics, Sundrug Co Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I (3382) | U.S. Gas Margins Offset Rising Energy Costs at Home
  • Renesas (6723 JP): Steradian Acquisition Supports Alliance with Tata
  • Buying Japanese Drug Store Names: Welcia (3141-JP) And Sundrug (9989-JP)
  • Companies Should Communicate Their Human Resources Strategy Rather than Detailed Disclosure Rules

Seven & I (3382) | U.S. Gas Margins Offset Rising Energy Costs at Home

By Mark Chadwick

  • 1H results, OP up +26% YoY, were good but in line with the recent Nikkei preview. 
  • The U.S. convenience store operation was the standout performer and the reason for the full year guidance raise
  • We remain bullish on the stock. It is just too cheap relative to global peers

Renesas (6723 JP): Steradian Acquisition Supports Alliance with Tata

By Scott Foster

  • Acquisition of Steradian Semiconductors complements Renesas’ partnership with Tata Group and expands its presence in India. 
  • Follows purchase of Reality Analytics of the U.S. and Celeno Communications of Israel. Global footprint growing, technological sophistication rising to meet ADAS, AI and IIoT requirements.
  • P/E below 10x on current guidance, but vulnerable to semiconductor down-cycle. Accumulate for long-term potential.

Buying Japanese Drug Store Names: Welcia (3141-JP) And Sundrug (9989-JP)

By Joe Jasper

  • Japan has been a favorite country since late-March, and we have continued to see improvement ever since.
  • Vermilion’s international Group CS-35 Drug Stores, Japan displays bullish price and RS downtrend reversals, giving us added confidence that outperformance is likely to continue
  • The two stocks highlighted today display base breakouts over the last couple of days, making them timely buys. Buy: Welcia Holdings (3141-JP) and Sundrug (9989-JP)

Companies Should Communicate Their Human Resources Strategy Rather than Detailed Disclosure Rules

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies had expected detailed rules, as with various disclosure documents, but was puzzled by government’s guidelines, which were conceptual and didn’t provide guidance on what to disclose and how much.
  • It is likely that the disclosure in annual securities reports, which are legal documents, will fill the space by disclosing items that are specifically identified and easy to show quantitatively.
  • Companies that cannot clearly explain their policies on investment in human capital and human resource strategies in their management strategies are unlikely to attract human resources.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update – Look to the Next Cycle

Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update – Look to the Next Cycle

By Scott Foster

  • Canon’s reported capital spending plan suggest that commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could start in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle.
  • If this is the case, Kioxia is likely to be the main beneficiary. In the meantime, LightStream recommends that investors in Toshiba hedge against tech/semi weakness.
  • Technical hurdles remain formidable, but nanoimprint lithography has the potential to be much cheaper than EUV.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Utilities: China Oil And Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China Oil & Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

China Oil & Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Shu Hui Woon

We view China Oil and Gas (COG) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. This takes into account: [1] regulatory risk, with the company having experienced delays of over three years in cost pass-throughs for tariffs in Qinghai (since resolved); [2] exposure to oil price volatility in the small upstream oil and gas (O&G) segment; and [3] any aggressive debt-funded acquisitions, which we remain cautious about following the company’s acquisition of a 22% stake in Shandong Shengli in 2021. COG’s main asset is its 51% interest in downstream gas provider China City Natural Gas (CCNG), with the remaining 49% held by Kunlun Energy, a subsidiary of SOE PetroChina. Hence, cash leakage from dividends is significant. We believe the relationship with Kunlun helps secure COG’s gas supply and improves the company’s ability to obtain gas distribution concessions. In addition, PetroChina’s parent, China National Petroleum Corporation, had previously provided financing to CCNG at competitive rates.

Our Credit Bias on COG is “Stable”, given COG’s solid revenue growth from natural gas sales and distribution. Additionally, the upstream O&G business has benefited from strong oil prices. It has also expanded into production and sales of coal gasification, further diversifying the businesses. COG has a sound liquidity profile and reasonable access to funding. That said, we remain cautious about the financial performance of Shandong Shengli as COG has provided guarantees for its banking facilities, which could impact COG’s credit profile.  

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, MicroPort NeuroTech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Activist Investors Will Grow Their Presence, as Japanese Equities Would Be Good Fit for The Approach
  • MicroPort NeuroTech (2172.HK) 22H1 – Advantages Deserve Recognition, but with Overvaluation Risk

Activist Investors Will Grow Their Presence, as Japanese Equities Would Be Good Fit for The Approach

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Given the increased stock market volatility, it’s not surprising that activist investment strategies are a good fit for investors seeking investment strategies that are less correlated with stock market fluctuations.
  • Japanese companies that have lower valuations, less effective steps to maximize their corporate value, and face many challenges in their governance practices are are well suited to activist investor approach.
  • Unlike passive investors who have an impact on the overall stock market, activist investors’ purchases will have a limited impact on the overall market, but their presence will be significant.

MicroPort NeuroTech (2172.HK) 22H1 – Advantages Deserve Recognition, but with Overvaluation Risk

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Among domestic enterprises, MicroPort NeuroTech (2172 HK)’s product richness takes the lead. With the support of Microport Scientific (853 HK), the production quality system and capacity are relatively more guaranteed. 
  • Fierce competition and centralized procurement are the major challenges, but the rich domestic distribution network and promising internationalization prospects would help NeuroTech find way out.
  • By reducing the size of the IPO to maintain a good share price, at the expense of stock liquidity, it doesn’t really solve the problem.There’s risk of overvaluation for NeuroTech.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials, Sherwin Williams Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • 85: Watchlist Update: Adding Sherwin-Williams

Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials (1919613D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Haitong and China Securities International. 
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials (GNCM) is a supplier of new energy battery materials in China, with a dual focus on nickel and cobalt for the production of cathode materials. 
  • The company is principally engaged in the processing and sales of refined cobalt products as well as the trading of nickel and cobalt-related products. 

85: Watchlist Update: Adding Sherwin-Williams

By Watchlist Investing

  • Sherwin-Williams continues the home improvement theme started last month by Home Depot and Lowe’s (HD, LOW | Disclosure: None).
  • SHW is the dominant player in the architectural coatings industry.
  • The scientific-sounding industry classification translates into paint for the interior and exterior of buildings.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update – Look to the Next Cycle

Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update – Look to the Next Cycle

By Scott Foster

  • Canon’s reported capital spending plan suggest that commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could start in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle.
  • If this is the case, Kioxia is likely to be the main beneficiary. In the meantime, LightStream recommends that investors in Toshiba hedge against tech/semi weakness.
  • Technical hurdles remain formidable, but nanoimprint lithography has the potential to be much cheaper than EUV.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Link Administration, CALB, Samsung Electronics, Twitter Inc, Nasdaq Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Link’s Ongoing Overtures from DND Underscore Its Value
  • StubWorld: Link And D&D Continue Negotiations On Unlisted Ops
  • CALB IPO: Trading Debut
  • Samsung Electronics: Lee Jae-Yong Orders the Creation of a New Task Force to Raise Shareholder Value
  • Elon V. Twitter: Elon Caved…For Sure…Maybe
  • Trading Ideas on the Possibility of Samsung Electronics’ Special Shareholder Returns
  • We are Not Crashing, It’s Just Volatile

Link’s Ongoing Overtures from DND Underscore Its Value

By Arun George

  • Dye & Durham/DND is a persistent bidder and returned with a A$1.27 billion bid for Link Administration (LNK AU)’s CM and BCM businesses. The Board will update next week. 
  • The latest offer is attractive but curiously, contradicts DND’s previous comments that the FCA would make it challenging to distribute any part sale proceeds.
  • Despite the overhang from the FCA fine, DND’s ongoing persistence and the Board’s potential in-specie distribution of the PEXA Group (PXA AU) stake highlight the underlying value.

StubWorld: Link And D&D Continue Negotiations On Unlisted Ops

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a Musk/Twitter-like on/off/on-again situation, Link Administration (LNK AU) announced it received an improved offer for its corporate markets and Banking & Credit Management (BCM) businesses from Dye & Durham.
  • Separately, Link is working with the Australian Tax Office on the in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link’s holding into PEXA Group (PXA AU).
  • Preceding my comments on Link are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

CALB IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • CALB (3931 HK) priced its H Share at HK$38.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$9.9 billion (US$1.3 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
  • Grey market prices across various platforms show the shares last traded at HK$37.30-38.00 per share i.e., -2% down to unchanged compared to the IPO price.
  • Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 EV/EBITDA multiple. CALB should be, at least, valued in line with peer multiples.

Samsung Electronics: Lee Jae-Yong Orders the Creation of a New Task Force to Raise Shareholder Value

By Douglas Kim

  • On 4 October, it was reported that Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has set up a task force to raise shareholder value of the company.
  • This task force was formed at the order of Samsung’s Vice Chairman Lee Jae-Yong.
  • All in all, a major share buyback and cancellations coupled with higher dividends could result in a share price turnaround for Samsung Electronics. 

Elon V. Twitter: Elon Caved…For Sure…Maybe

By Vicki Bryan

  • Elon to Judge: Twitter Lies! Twitter is a fraudster! I am NOT buying Twitter! 
  • Also Elon: Never mind. Carry on. Twitter: Riiiight. We’ll see.
  • Elon’s Bankers: WUT? WE HAVE TO SELL “CCC” LBP BONDS NO ONE WANTS TO BUY?

Trading Ideas on the Possibility of Samsung Electronics’ Special Shareholder Returns

By Sanghyun Park

  • 1P/Ord LONG/SHORT betting on a 1P-skewed buyback does not look very desirable. The Lee family’s financial needs are short-term, so there is no need for a 1P-skewed buyback.
  • Given that the 1P discount rate has stabilized again, a strategy betting on the mean reversion does not seem very timely either.
  • We should look at the possibility that false expectations for a special year-end dividend will further deepen futures backwardation. This situation can lead to quite a juicy spot/futures spread opening.

We are Not Crashing, It’s Just Volatile

By BluSuit

  • Listening to sentiment alone would lead investors to believe we are 50% down on the S&P 500 and we have another 50% to go.
  • But, this simply is not true. When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom since 2000.
  • Recollecting Howard Marks book, “Mastering the Market Cycle”, there was a particular part that was of importance.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief ESG: Activist Investors Will Grow Their Presence and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Activist Investors Will Grow Their Presence, as Japanese Equities Would Be Good Fit for The Approach

Activist Investors Will Grow Their Presence, as Japanese Equities Would Be Good Fit for The Approach

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Given the increased stock market volatility, it’s not surprising that activist investment strategies are a good fit for investors seeking investment strategies that are less correlated with stock market fluctuations.
  • Japanese companies that have lower valuations, less effective steps to maximize their corporate value, and face many challenges in their governance practices are are well suited to activist investor approach.
  • Unlike passive investors who have an impact on the overall stock market, activist investors’ purchases will have a limited impact on the overall market, but their presence will be significant.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief ECM: CALB IPO: Trading Debut and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CALB IPO: Trading Debut
  • I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Positives – For the Pampered Pets
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Non-Uniform Growth

CALB IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • CALB (3931 HK) priced its H Share at HK$38.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$9.9 billion (US$1.3 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
  • Grey market prices across various platforms show the shares last traded at HK$37.30-38.00 per share i.e., -2% down to unchanged compared to the IPO price.
  • Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 EV/EBITDA multiple. CALB should be, at least, valued in line with peer multiples.

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Positives – For the Pampered Pets

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials (1919613D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Haitong and China Securities International. 
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials (GNCM) is a supplier of new energy battery materials in China, with a dual focus on nickel and cobalt for the production of cathode materials. 
  • The company is principally engaged in the processing and sales of refined cobalt products as well as the trading of nickel and cobalt-related products. 

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Non-Uniform Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Rakuten Inc, CanariaBio, I-Tail, Z Holdings, Ryohin Keikaku, Shidax Corp, Amorepacific Corp, Valora Holding AG and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten – Sale of Stake in Securities Business Eases Funding Pressure
  • KOSDAQ 150 Rebalancing: 7 Regular Changes + 2 Special Entries
  • I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Positives – For the Pampered Pets
  • Z Holdings / PayPay – A Focus on Margin Improvement as ZHD Moves to Consolidate
  • Ryohin Keikaku: A Beat Can Turn Around Price Performance
  • Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters
  • A Senior Korean Govt Official Provides the Likely Time of the End of Indoor Mask Mandate
  • FEMSA/​Valora Holding: Offer Success and Squeeze-Out
  • I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Non-Uniform Growth

Rakuten – Sale of Stake in Securities Business Eases Funding Pressure

By Kirk Boodry

  • Rakuten is reportedly selling a stake in its Securities unit for ¥80bn, which probably means a near-term IPO of that business is off the table
  • It may also give Rakuten greater flexibility on the timing of a Rakuten Bank IPO should pricing for that be problematic
  • In terms of surfacing the value of Rakuten’s fintech assets this is good news but it is mobile losses that have held the shares back. We remain at Neutral.

KOSDAQ 150 Rebalancing: 7 Regular Changes + 2 Special Entries

By Sanghyun Park

  • KOSDAQ 150’s December rebalancing will feature seven regular changes and two special entries.
  • Among the additions, we should focus on Dear U and ISC, which have a balanced level of liquidity and flow, rather than those theme stocks with high volatility.
  • As for Nature Holdings, Eoflow, and Nextin, I suggest a more aggressive entry point due to low trading volume. Then, I’d basket-trade the deletions on equal weight.

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Positives – For the Pampered Pets

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Z Holdings / PayPay – A Focus on Margin Improvement as ZHD Moves to Consolidate

By Kirk Boodry

  • The PayPay conversion is complete and management is focused on managing costs, which is reassuring for ZHD financial targets and for an eventual IPO
  • There was less said about the latter, however, whilst detail on the valuation gain that parent Softbank Corp needs to hit its own operating income target has not been confirmed
  • Our valuation of ¥500bn for PayPay looks more reasonable as 50-73% YTD declines in public comps have brought trading multiples in line (PayPay at 5x FY22e revenue versus 5-8x)

Ryohin Keikaku: A Beat Can Turn Around Price Performance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Our analysis points to a significant earnings beat for Ryohin Keikaku, whose share price is down more than 50%-YTD and is currently hugging the bottom-end of the long-term trend channel.
  • With freight and logistics down more than 50% since June 2022, we are expecting Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)’s gross margin to return to around 49-50%.
  • In addition, the company’s monthly sales growth figures indicate that FQ4 revenue should be around ¥114.6bn compared to ¥105.8bn for consensus.

Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters

By Travis Lundy

  • On 8 September, I went over the Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) bid for the stake in Shidax Corp (4837 JP) held by Unison Capital. 
  • The founding Shida family had a deal whereby when the company raised capital years ago, the family had ROFR to buy or nominate a buyer of the Unison stake.
  • The problem? Shidax’ independent board said this was unfair to minorities. The back and forth has continued but there may now be hope for a better deal. 

A Senior Korean Govt Official Provides the Likely Time of the End of Indoor Mask Mandate

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past few days, a senior government Korean official announced that the indoor mask mandates will likely be lifted in March 2023.
  • Although this is not officially finalized, we believe that there is a very high probability of the Korean government finally ending the indoor mask mandate sometime in March 2023. 
  • The end of the indoor mask mandate is likely to have a positive impact on the Korean cosmetics companies. Nonetheless, we are still concerned about the relatively high valuation multiples.

FEMSA/​Valora Holding: Offer Success and Squeeze-Out

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The Additional Acceptance Period ended on 29 September. On 3 October, FEMSA announced the satisfaction of all conditions. On 5 October, FEMSA announced that its participation amounts to 96.87%.
  • Settlement will occur on 7 October. FEMSA intends to initiate a squeeze-out procedure and delist the Valora shares from trading on SIX Swiss Exchange.
  • The tender was good news for shareholders. My TP is CHF 252.2/share, therefore I believe the offer is fair and there was no counterbid. 

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Non-Uniform Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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