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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Asset World Corporation, Janus Henderson, PayMate India Ltd, Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd, First Pacific Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in December
  • Australia: S&P/​ASX, FTSE, REMX, GDXJ Flows This Friday
  • PayMate India Pre-IPO – Burning Cash with Significant Concentration Risk
  • Blue Jet Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • First Pacific – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) started on 1 September and will end 30 November.
  • We currently see one high probability change and two lower probability changes to the index at the upcoming rebalance.
  • There are a couple of lower probability adds/deletes that will have between 3-5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds and could be interesting from a trading angle.

Australia: S&P/​ASX, FTSE, REMX, GDXJ Flows This Friday

By Brian Freitas

  • Changes to the S&P/ASX indices, FTSE All-World/All-Cap, VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals (REMX US) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ US) will be implemented at the close on Friday.
  • There are quite a few stocks that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. Pre-positions will be built up on a lot of names.
  • Short interest has increased on a lot of additions/upweights and decreased on the deletions/downweights.

PayMate India Pre-IPO – Burning Cash with Significant Concentration Risk

By Ethan Aw

  • PayMate India Ltd (935383Z IN) is looking to raise approximately US$193m in its upcoming India IPO.  
  • PayMate India is a business to business (B2B) payments and services provider that digitizes, automates and streamlines B2B payments in supply chains. 
  • The firm remains unprofitable even on a gross profit level. Its cash burn also appears unsustainable as it has been financing its operations through equity raises. 

Blue Jet Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, ICICI Securities and JP Morgan. 
  • Blue Jet Healthcare (BJH) is a specialty pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredient and intermediate company, offering niche products targeted toward innovator pharmaceutical companies and multinational generic pharmaceutical companies. 
  • It operates via a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) model with specialized chemistry capabilities in contrast media intermediates and high-intensity sweeteners, including saccharin and its salts. 

First Pacific – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view First Pacific (FIRPAC) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This is primarily due to the group’s strong assets and tight control over key investee companies, which ensure reliable dividend streams to service debt. The investment holding company has a reasonable track record. Its key assets include Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company, Indofood and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. The group’s asset concentration is offset by the strength of these companies, which are: [1] leaders in their market segments; and [2] stable non-cyclical businesses. Leverage is moderate (measured as Net Debt at Holdco/Market Value of Assets). The investment portfolio has high transparency, with almost all assets (based on NAV) being listed.

Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”​, due to the subsidiaries’ robust performance.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. As an investment holding company, FIRPAC does not face substantial regulatory, geopolitical or ESG risks.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Ramsay Health Care, Singapore Medical, Jenscare Scientific, Biocon Ltd, Modern Dental Group, Giant Biogene Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit
  • Singapore Medical’s Light VGO Offer from Top Management
  • Singapore Medical: Management’s Low-Balled Buyout
  • Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results
  • Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN): Stake Sale in Subsidiary Is a Step in Right Direction
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe
  • Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness
  • Giant Biogene (巨子生物) Pre-IPO: Visits to Beauty Stores and Online Apps

Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit

By Arun George

  • KKR cannot improve the terms of its offer but left the door open by stating that a deal can be quickly closed if the Board is willing to reset expectations.
  • The transaction is stuck in an impasse as Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) will not recommend KKR’s offer until it is improved, and KKR says it cannot improve terms.
  • The peers’ shares have been, on average, flat since the undisturbed date. The shares are trading slightly below the undisturbed price and are attractive on fundamentals.

Singapore Medical’s Light VGO Offer from Top Management

By Arun George

  • Singapore Medical (SMG SP) received a voluntary conditional offer from management (chairman, CEO, exec director). The offer is cash (S$0.37) or scrip (1 new share in the offeror per share).
  • The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition. Irrevocables, which will take the scrip option, represent 51.67% of outstanding shares.
  • The offer is light, but the offeror reserves the right to reduce the acceptance condition to a lower level (above 50%). Therefore, this offer will likely turn unconditional. 

Singapore Medical: Management’s Low-Balled Buyout

By David Blennerhassett

  • Healthcare provider Singapore Medical (SMG SP) has announced a voluntary conditional general offer from TLW Success, an entity equally controlled by three senior members of management.
  • TLW is offering A$0.37/share, a 13.8% premium to last close. Shareholders are afforded an unlisted scrip option.
  • TLW shareholders hold 16.49%. Irrevocables another 35.18%, or 51.67% all-in. The Offer is conditional on 90% of shares out held by the Offeror. The acceptance level condition may be reduced. 

Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The main bottleneck in this market in China is the severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals to carry out such surgery, leading to lower-than-expected market penetration/sales performance.
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK)’s products have to face fierce competition, without obvious advantage of development progress, or the progress has already lagged behind the competitors. 
  • Overall, good valuation cannot be supported without promising commercialization outlook. We are not sure whether Jenscare can finally achieve the ideal return in the case of unfriendly external environment.

Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN): Stake Sale in Subsidiary Is a Step in Right Direction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN) divested 5.4% stake in Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN) and raised INR12.2B. The proceed will be used to finance Biocon’s acquisition of biologics business of Viatris.
  • Biocon is still working on the equity-debt split of Viatris deal, and a final decision on the same will be announced soon.
  • The strategic deal with Viatris will transform Biocon Biologics into a leading vertically integrated global biologics company, with one of the broadest and deepest commercialized biosimilars portfolio in the industry.

Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe

By Tina Banerjee

  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) is developing interventional products for the treatment of structural heart diseases. Its core product LuX-Valve is expected to become the first commercialized TTVR product in China.
  • With its comprehensive portfolio and early mover advantage, Jenscare is well-positioned to capitalize on large and underpenetrated China’s structural heart diseases treatment market worth of RMB20.3 billion in 2030.
  • Jenscare Scientific plans to raise $30 million (HKD234 million) in its third application for a Hong Kong IPO, with CICC and Citigroup being the joint sponsors.

Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to better-than-expected VBP results, we saw a decent rally of MDG’s share price last Friday. However, all the medical products that are covered by VBP begin to lose logic. 
  • Backwardness in R&D is a bottleneck restricting MDG’s future growth. MDG is more like a manufacturing/processing plant relying on labor dividends than a technology company with high product added value.
  • Multiple risks (e.g.pandemic, depreciation of exchange rate against US dollar, economic downturn, etc.) will add more uncertainties to MDG’s 2022 performance. MDG’s share price could remain tepid after temporary rally. 

Giant Biogene (巨子生物) Pre-IPO: Visits to Beauty Stores and Online Apps

By Ming Lu

  • Giant Biogene (GB) has a large sales network of physical distributors.
  • We believe GB’s large capacity packages have price advantage over domestic competitors.
  • But we also believe GB should strengthen or outsource its studio for live broadcasting sales.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: 21Vianet Group, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), 4Paradigm, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, Arlo Technologies Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • VNET: Management’s Low-Balled Non-Binding Proposal
  • NTT (9432) Buyback Has Come – But NTT Is Gonna Grind Out Better EPS So I’d Keep It
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Is Third-Time a Charm?
  • Sell Resistances Post Plunge
  • ARLO: Penalized for Growth

VNET: Management’s Low-Balled Non-Binding Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11 April, Chinese internet data center services provider VNET (VNET US) announced a non-binding proposal from Hina Group and Shanghai’s Industrial Bank at an utterly underwhelming US$8.00/ADS.
  • Then crickets. A reported tilt from MBK Partners failed to materialise.
  • VNET has now announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from founder Josh Sheng Chen, at a similarly underwhelming price of US$8.20/ADS. 

NTT (9432) Buyback Has Come – But NTT Is Gonna Grind Out Better EPS So I’d Keep It

By Travis Lundy

  • NTT announced a buyback in May as discussed in NTT (9432) – Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go, via ToSTNeT-3 to buy a chunk of the govt’s stake. 
  • That will be executed by ToSTNeT-3 buyback pre-open tomorrow, with a bid of 103.1725mm shares at ¥3,877. A separate report suggests the Ministry of Finance will sell 92mm shares.
  • It is like a mini tender offer so if you want to sell a large chunk of shares, you can. But I wouldn’t. 

4Paradigm IPO: Is Third-Time a Charm?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is a pioneer and leader in enterprise AI. Company offers platform-centric AI solutions to enterprises that can be deployed on a large scale to support decision making.
  • The company was ranked the largest player in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2021 and has filed for a HKEx listing for the third-time this month.
  • 4Paradigm’s top line and margins have improved since we last wrote on the company.

Sell Resistances Post Plunge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX, DAX, Asia short levels met ahead of the CPI print. Today’s insight focuses on near resistance points to sell into after the conviction bear turn and reiterates downside targets.
  • Game plan was to short strength Monday/Tuesday and used pivot support/trailing stops to unwind some long exposure.
  • Call to buy the USD on this pullback at DXY 108 worked well with a focus on Euro, ZAR, and weaker Asian FX.

ARLO: Penalized for Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO deciding to spend more on brand awareness this year has given reason for some investors to move to the sidelines
  • ARLO’s second quarter results were better than expected and we believe the third quarter has trended better than expected as well
  • The timing of switching CFOs was a surprise since five months prior ARLO had established its ad spending strategy.

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Daily Brief Credit: First Pacific – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • First Pacific – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, Vedanta Resources

First Pacific – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view First Pacific (FIRPAC) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This is primarily due to the group’s strong assets and tight control over key investee companies, which ensure reliable dividend streams to service debt. The investment holding company has a reasonable track record. Its key assets include Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company, Indofood and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. The group’s asset concentration is offset by the strength of these companies, which are: [1] leaders in their market segments; and [2] stable non-cyclical businesses. Leverage is moderate (measured as Net Debt at Holdco/Market Value of Assets). The investment portfolio has high transparency, with almost all assets (based on NAV) being listed.

Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”​, due to the subsidiaries’ robust performance.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. As an investment holding company, FIRPAC does not face substantial regulatory, geopolitical or ESG risks.


Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Tencent/Netease: September Batch of Game Approval & Thoughts on Trading and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent/Netease: September Batch of Game Approval & Thoughts on Trading
  • Sector Vs Factor-Based Benchmark Selection

Tencent/Netease: September Batch of Game Approval & Thoughts on Trading

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for September batch. More games were approved in September compared to July, June and August.
  • Pace of China game approval continued to pick up albeit at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Tencent continue to score zero and Netease managed to get one game approved in 14 months. 

Sector Vs Factor-Based Benchmark Selection

By Nicolas Rabener

  • Manager-Selected benchmarks are suboptimal as they are not free of conflict of interests
  • Perhaps, investors can use sectors to identify more appropriate benchmarks
  • However, this ignores factors, which are better at explaining investment returns

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Daily Brief Consumer: Eva Precision Industrial Holdings, Smoore International, LG Energy Solution and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 15th Sept 2022 – Smoore, Zhongsheng, Perennial Energy
  • Assessing the Korea NPS-Originated Flow Trends and Allocation Breakdown

EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022

By Sameer Taneja

  • Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a beneficiary of EV penetration globally and in China, trading at 9.4x /5.6x FY22/23e and 3.2%/5.3% dividend yield (30% payout ratio).
  • H1 2022 was groundbreaking for the company as it commenced strategic cooperation with  BYD (1211 HK) on products and bagged orders from Huwaei and Tesla, with more coming in H2.
  • There is additional room for buybacks as the stock price is < 2HKD and the company only completed 3-4% of its 200 mn HKD buyback.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 15th Sept 2022 – Smoore, Zhongsheng, Perennial Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • Stocks mentioned below include Smoore (6969 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and Perennial Energy Holdings Ltd (2798 HK). These insights may also flag those companies where shares have been pledged.

Assessing the Korea NPS-Originated Flow Trends and Allocation Breakdown

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Korea NPS released the yearly report for 2021 last week, which is attached at the bottom of this post. Yes, for this, an English version is available.
  • The NPS also releases a status report every month that contains limited data. Based on the annual and monthly status reports, we can infer the allocation breakdown and flow trends.
  • Through this post, let’s look at the shareholding changes and flow trends with the release of this annual report. Please note that this post does not make any investment recommendations.

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Daily Brief ECM: CALB Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Top Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CALB Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Is Third-Time a Charm?
  • PayMate India Pre-IPO – Burning Cash with Significant Concentration Risk
  • Blue Jet Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe

CALB Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.
  • In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about the company’s expansion plans.

4Paradigm IPO: Is Third-Time a Charm?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is a pioneer and leader in enterprise AI. Company offers platform-centric AI solutions to enterprises that can be deployed on a large scale to support decision making.
  • The company was ranked the largest player in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2021 and has filed for a HKEx listing for the third-time this month.
  • 4Paradigm’s top line and margins have improved since we last wrote on the company.

PayMate India Pre-IPO – Burning Cash with Significant Concentration Risk

By Ethan Aw

  • PayMate India Ltd (935383Z IN) is looking to raise approximately US$193m in its upcoming India IPO.  
  • PayMate India is a business to business (B2B) payments and services provider that digitizes, automates and streamlines B2B payments in supply chains. 
  • The firm remains unprofitable even on a gross profit level. Its cash burn also appears unsustainable as it has been financing its operations through equity raises. 

Blue Jet Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, ICICI Securities and JP Morgan. 
  • Blue Jet Healthcare (BJH) is a specialty pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredient and intermediate company, offering niche products targeted toward innovator pharmaceutical companies and multinational generic pharmaceutical companies. 
  • It operates via a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) model with specialized chemistry capabilities in contrast media intermediates and high-intensity sweeteners, including saccharin and its salts. 

Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The main bottleneck in this market in China is the severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals to carry out such surgery, leading to lower-than-expected market penetration/sales performance.
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK)’s products have to face fierce competition, without obvious advantage of development progress, or the progress has already lagged behind the competitors. 
  • Overall, good valuation cannot be supported without promising commercialization outlook. We are not sure whether Jenscare can finally achieve the ideal return in the case of unfriendly external environment.

Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe

By Tina Banerjee

  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) is developing interventional products for the treatment of structural heart diseases. Its core product LuX-Valve is expected to become the first commercialized TTVR product in China.
  • With its comprehensive portfolio and early mover advantage, Jenscare is well-positioned to capitalize on large and underpenetrated China’s structural heart diseases treatment market worth of RMB20.3 billion in 2030.
  • Jenscare Scientific plans to raise $30 million (HKD234 million) in its third application for a Hong Kong IPO, with CICC and Citigroup being the joint sponsors.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Sell Resistances Post Plunge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Sell Resistances Post Plunge

Sell Resistances Post Plunge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX, DAX, Asia short levels met ahead of the CPI print. Today’s insight focuses on near resistance points to sell into after the conviction bear turn and reiterates downside targets.
  • Game plan was to short strength Monday/Tuesday and used pivot support/trailing stops to unwind some long exposure.
  • Call to buy the USD on this pullback at DXY 108 worked well with a focus on Euro, ZAR, and weaker Asian FX.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Atlas Arteria Placement – How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Atlas Arteria Placement – How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in December
  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): Acquisition, ANREO & ASX50 Inclusion
  • Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit
  • VNET: Management’s Low-Balled Non-Binding Proposal
  • Moya Holding’s S$0.092 Delisting Offer
  • Moya Holdings: Anthoni Salim’s Exit Offer
  • Australia: S&P/​ASX, FTSE, REMX, GDXJ Flows This Friday
  • NTT (9432) Buyback Has Come – But NTT Is Gonna Grind Out Better EPS So I’d Keep It
  • EQD | Volkswagen (VOW3 GY): Porsche IPO Could Unlock Value-We Look at the Best Derivative Trades

Atlas Arteria Placement – How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

By Sumeet Singh

  • Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.
  • Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) started on 1 September and will end 30 November.
  • We currently see one high probability change and two lower probability changes to the index at the upcoming rebalance.
  • There are a couple of lower probability adds/deletes that will have between 3-5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds and could be interesting from a trading angle.

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): Acquisition, ANREO & ASX50 Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) is acquiring 66.67% in Skyway Concession Company LLC, the concessionaire of the Chicago Skyway for an equity value of US$2.013bn (A$3.098bn).
  • The acquisition will be funded by a fully underwritten 1:1.95 ANREO to raise A$3.098bn. The offer price of A$6.3/share is a 13.7% discount to TERP and 19.3% discount to last.
  • The increase in market cap could result in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) being added to the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the December rebalance.

Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit

By Arun George

  • KKR cannot improve the terms of its offer but left the door open by stating that a deal can be quickly closed if the Board is willing to reset expectations.
  • The transaction is stuck in an impasse as Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) will not recommend KKR’s offer until it is improved, and KKR says it cannot improve terms.
  • The peers’ shares have been, on average, flat since the undisturbed date. The shares are trading slightly below the undisturbed price and are attractive on fundamentals.

VNET: Management’s Low-Balled Non-Binding Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11 April, Chinese internet data center services provider VNET (VNET US) announced a non-binding proposal from Hina Group and Shanghai’s Industrial Bank at an utterly underwhelming US$8.00/ADS.
  • Then crickets. A reported tilt from MBK Partners failed to materialise.
  • VNET has now announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from founder Josh Sheng Chen, at a similarly underwhelming price of US$8.20/ADS. 

Moya Holding’s S$0.092 Delisting Offer

By Arun George

  • Moya Holdings Asia (MHAL SP) received a delisting proposal from Tamaris Infrastructure (a 72.84% shareholder) at S$0.092 per share, a 41.5% premium to the undisturbed price (8 September).
  • The key condition is shareholder approval. Gateway Partners, which holds a blocking stake, will likely use the offer as an opportunity to exit an underperforming investment.
  • The offer price is attractive. At the last close price, the gross and annualised spread for a year-end effective date is 3.4% and 11.5%, respectively.

Moya Holdings: Anthoni Salim’s Exit Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Indonesian water treatment play Moya Holdings Asia (MHAL SP) has announced an Exit Offer from Tamaris Infrastructure, an Anthoni Salim-controlled entity.
  • The Offer price is S$0.092/share, a 41.5% premium to last close. The Offer price will not be increased.
  • The Offer requires approval from 75% of disinterested shareholders. Tamaris and its concert parties hold 72.84%.

Australia: S&P/​ASX, FTSE, REMX, GDXJ Flows This Friday

By Brian Freitas

  • Changes to the S&P/ASX indices, FTSE All-World/All-Cap, VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals (REMX US) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ US) will be implemented at the close on Friday.
  • There are quite a few stocks that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. Pre-positions will be built up on a lot of names.
  • Short interest has increased on a lot of additions/upweights and decreased on the deletions/downweights.

NTT (9432) Buyback Has Come – But NTT Is Gonna Grind Out Better EPS So I’d Keep It

By Travis Lundy

  • NTT announced a buyback in May as discussed in NTT (9432) – Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go, via ToSTNeT-3 to buy a chunk of the govt’s stake. 
  • That will be executed by ToSTNeT-3 buyback pre-open tomorrow, with a bid of 103.1725mm shares at ¥3,877. A separate report suggests the Ministry of Finance will sell 92mm shares.
  • It is like a mini tender offer so if you want to sell a large chunk of shares, you can. But I wouldn’t. 

EQD | Volkswagen (VOW3 GY): Porsche IPO Could Unlock Value-We Look at the Best Derivative Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Volkswagen are planning to IPO Porsche in order to address company valuation and to raise funds to further expand into the EV market.
  • The stock looks attractive on a valuation basis and the company has the potential to transform and future proof the business and gain a more favourable P/E ratio.
  • We look at the Derivatives Market for the best risk reward strategies.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022
  • CALB IPO: Solid PHIP Results Offset by Further Market Downturn
  • Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN): Stake Sale in Subsidiary Is a Step in Right Direction
  • GULF : Expansion in the US Plant
  • Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness
  • Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play
  • Giant Biogene (巨子生物) Pre-IPO: Visits to Beauty Stores and Online Apps
  • ARLO: Penalized for Growth

EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022

By Sameer Taneja

  • Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a beneficiary of EV penetration globally and in China, trading at 9.4x /5.6x FY22/23e and 3.2%/5.3% dividend yield (30% payout ratio).
  • H1 2022 was groundbreaking for the company as it commenced strategic cooperation with  BYD (1211 HK) on products and bagged orders from Huwaei and Tesla, with more coming in H2.
  • There is additional room for buybacks as the stock price is < 2HKD and the company only completed 3-4% of its 200 mn HKD buyback.

CALB IPO: Solid PHIP Results Offset by Further Market Downturn

By Douglas Kim

  • CALB’s revenue surged by 266% YoY to reach 3.9 billion RMB in 1Q 2022. Its  operating profit also increased by 43.5% YoY in 1Q 2022, respectively. 
  • CALB also had the highest sales growth rate of 266.5% YoY in 1Q 2022 versus 154% growth YoY for CATL and 63% growth YoY for BYD in 1Q 2022.
  • CALB is one of the most interesting large cap IPOs globally in 2022. Despite horrible market conditions, the company is trying to complete its IPO in the next several weeks.

Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN): Stake Sale in Subsidiary Is a Step in Right Direction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN) divested 5.4% stake in Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN) and raised INR12.2B. The proceed will be used to finance Biocon’s acquisition of biologics business of Viatris.
  • Biocon is still working on the equity-debt split of Viatris deal, and a final decision on the same will be announced soon.
  • The strategic deal with Viatris will transform Biocon Biologics into a leading vertically integrated global biologics company, with one of the broadest and deepest commercialized biosimilars portfolio in the industry.

GULF : Expansion in the US Plant

By Pi Research

  • We maintain the BUY call while raising the TP by 7%to Bt62.0 on the back of SOTP adjustment to factor in acquisition of new 588MWe Jackson Generation power project (US) 
  • 49% holding in the US project will add Bt4 in SOTP The company informs the SET about acquiring 49% stake in 1,200 MW (588MWe) Gas power plant “Jackson Generation”
  • The company supplies electricity to the PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland) which is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in the US

Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to better-than-expected VBP results, we saw a decent rally of MDG’s share price last Friday. However, all the medical products that are covered by VBP begin to lose logic. 
  • Backwardness in R&D is a bottleneck restricting MDG’s future growth. MDG is more like a manufacturing/processing plant relying on labor dividends than a technology company with high product added value.
  • Multiple risks (e.g.pandemic, depreciation of exchange rate against US dollar, economic downturn, etc.) will add more uncertainties to MDG’s 2022 performance. MDG’s share price could remain tepid after temporary rally. 

Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is now at negative stub value, the low-end since 2020. This is despite a 16.4% growth in 1H22 core earnings to Rmb542m.
  • The company’s waste-to-energy (WTE) capacity will increase by 25% in FY23 and its internal target calls for an earnings CAGR of 33% between FY21 and FY25 for WTE segment.
  • We should not underestimate the potential from new business initiatives including cathode and anode materials and lithium battery recycling. They have good medium-to-long term exposure to China’s new energy industry.

Giant Biogene (巨子生物) Pre-IPO: Visits to Beauty Stores and Online Apps

By Ming Lu

  • Giant Biogene (GB) has a large sales network of physical distributors.
  • We believe GB’s large capacity packages have price advantage over domestic competitors.
  • But we also believe GB should strengthen or outsource its studio for live broadcasting sales.

ARLO: Penalized for Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO deciding to spend more on brand awareness this year has given reason for some investors to move to the sidelines
  • ARLO’s second quarter results were better than expected and we believe the third quarter has trended better than expected as well
  • The timing of switching CFOs was a surprise since five months prior ARLO had established its ad spending strategy.

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