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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Oracle Corp, Microsoft Corp, Apple , Brightstar Lottery, Lear Corp, Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Figma, Smith (A.O.), ARM Holdings, Baker Hughes and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Softwar: An Intimate Portrait of Larry Ellison and Oracle $ORCL (Fintwit Book Club July 2025)
  • Microsoft FYQ425. Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance?
  • Apple 3Q25 (Jun-25): Good 10% Beat, 4Q 5% Above Consensus. Great but Questions on Services Remain
  • Brightstar Lottery Capital Return Continues to Exceed Expectations
  • Lear Corporation: An Insight Into Its Recent Adaptation to Volume & Trade Dynamics & Its Strategy Shielding Its Global Supply Chain!
  • Booz Allen Hamilton: Initiation of Coverage- Why Are They Rewiring Their Contracts & Can Outcome-Based Models Improve Profits?
  • Figma IPO: Pricing and First Trading-Day, ~$67B Market Cap At The Close, Unsustainable Multiples
  • A. O. Smith: An Insight Into The Water Heater Market Dynamics & Its Emerging Market Expansion Efforts
  • [Earnings Review] Arm’s AI Royalty Engine Powers Through Cloud and Edge Tailwinds
  • Baker Hughes Eyes Chart Industries: A $13.6 Billion Bet On LNG & Digital Power


Softwar: An Intimate Portrait of Larry Ellison and Oracle $ORCL (Fintwit Book Club July 2025)

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Institutional investors are turning to AI to analyze SEC filings and earnings call transcripts, with Fintool offering a quicker and more efficient solution.
  • The biography of Larry Ellison, focusing on Oracle during the dot com crisis, provides insight into Ellison’s leadership style and business strategies.
  • Despite some mixed feelings about Oracle and Ellison’s personality, his vision for the future of computing, such as using commodity hardware and smartphones, has proven to be accurate in hindsight.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Microsoft FYQ425. Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance?

By William Keating

  • Q425 revenues of $76.4 billion, up 5.5% QoQ, 18% YoY and handily beating guidance of $73.8 billion.
  • Azure surpassed $75 billion in revenue in FY25, up 34% YoY, driven by growth across all workloads.
  • Contracted backlog grew by $53 billion QoQ to reach $368 billion. Wow!

Apple 3Q25 (Jun-25): Good 10% Beat, 4Q 5% Above Consensus. Great but Questions on Services Remain

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 3Q25 saw an acceleration in revenues (+10% YoY) and EPS (+12%), after a long period of stagnation (2022-23-24 at ~3% growth). 4Q guidance is 5% above Consensus. 
  • Impact of US import tariffs is negligible. Services is the major growth driver and Apple has few answers on critical questions (Epic ruling, DoJ rulings against Google, AI roll out). 
  • The stock is expensive, as always  (27x FY26 EPS, 25x FY27 EPS) for sub-10% growth. Some people love the buybacks, the brand and dominant market position.

Brightstar Lottery Capital Return Continues to Exceed Expectations

By Richard Howe

  • Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) reported solid Q2 2025 results and is delivering on every aspect of the original thesis I laid out in June.
  • The company has now begun executing on the largest capital return in its history: a $3.00 per share tax-free special dividend (paid July 29) and a $250MM accelerated share repurchase (ASR) — the first half of a $500MM buyback authorization.
  • Brightstar also reiterated that it will maintain its $160MM annual dividend, so with fewer shares outstanding, the per-share dividend will increase, potentially rising to ~$0.22–$0.24 per quarter.

Lear Corporation: An Insight Into Its Recent Adaptation to Volume & Trade Dynamics & Its Strategy Shielding Its Global Supply Chain!

By Baptista Research

  • Lear Corporation’s second-quarter 2025 financial results reflect a balanced mix of positive developments and areas of concern.
  • Revenue remained stable at $6 billion, indicating resilience against macroeconomic and industry-specific challenges.
  • The core operating earnings came in at $292 million with an operating margin of 4.8%.

Booz Allen Hamilton: Initiation of Coverage- Why Are They Rewiring Their Contracts & Can Outcome-Based Models Improve Profits?

By Baptista Research

  • Booz Allen Hamilton’s first quarter fiscal year 2026 results reflect a dynamic environment influenced by shifting government priorities and procurement processes.
  • Overall, the company’s financial performance aligned with expectations, showing resilience amidst a challenging backdrop with a 2% year-over-year growth in revenue, excluding billable expenses, despite an overall revenue decline of roughly 1%.
  • Positively, Booz Allen Hamilton recorded a high quarterly book-to-bill ratio of 1.42x, contributing to a record backlog of $38 billion, suggesting future revenue streams are solid.

Figma IPO: Pricing and First Trading-Day, ~$67B Market Cap At The Close, Unsustainable Multiples

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Figma Inc., a product design leader with strong financial profile, priced its IPO at $33.00/share and raised ~$1.2B.
  • The company raised the price range to $30.00-$32.00. The stock opened at $85.00 and closed on Thursday at $115.50, up ~250% vs. IPO offer price.
  • The offering was priced above the marketed range. Figma had a ~$67B market cap at the close, implying a ~62x EV/2025E sky-high multiple on my 2025 revenue estimate of $1056M.

A. O. Smith: An Insight Into The Water Heater Market Dynamics & Its Emerging Market Expansion Efforts

By Baptista Research

  • A.
  • O.
  • Smith’s second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings results reflect a mixed performance, highlighting both strengths and challenges in the company’s global operations and strategic initiatives.

[Earnings Review] Arm’s AI Royalty Engine Powers Through Cloud and Edge Tailwinds

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Record royalties now make up over half of Arm’s revenue, with Compute Subsystems (CSS) earning nearly 2x more than conventional designs.
  • Hyperscaler CPU share jumps to ~50%, as Neoverse powers AI infrastructure at NVIDIA, AWS, Google, and Microsoft.
  • Custom silicon stickiness deepens, with multigenerational GPU deals and CSS design wins spanning cloud, PC, and automotive verticals.

Baker Hughes Eyes Chart Industries: A $13.6 Billion Bet On LNG & Digital Power

By Baptista Research

  • Baker Hughes is reportedly nearing a $13.6 billion all-cash acquisition of Chart Industries, potentially derailing Chart’s previously announced all-stock merger with Flowserve.
  • The proposed deal, which values Chart at $210 per share—a 22% premium to its latest closing price—marks a significant strategic pivot by Baker Hughes toward enhancing its footprint in liquefied natural gas (LNG), nuclear energy, and digital infrastructure, particularly data centers.
  • By superseding the $19 billion Flowserve-Chart merger agreement from June, Baker Hughes aims to consolidate its position in high-growth, energy-adjacent sectors through vertical integration and technology enhancement.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Plover Bay (1523 HK): Slight Deceleration But Solid H1 FY25 And Optimistic Future Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Plover Bay (1523 HK): Slight Deceleration But Solid H1 FY25 And Optimistic Future Growth
  • Softwar: An Intimate Portrait of Larry Ellison and Oracle $ORCL (Fintwit Book Club July 2025)
  • Microsoft FYQ425. Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance?
  • Buy Hamee Corp
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Soft World Intl (5478 TT)
  • Apple 3Q25 (Jun-25): Good 10% Beat, 4Q 5% Above Consensus. Great but Questions on Services Remain
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.
  • Execution Remains Key For Mineral Resources
  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Brightstar Lottery Capital Return Continues to Exceed Expectations


Plover Bay (1523 HK): Slight Deceleration But Solid H1 FY25 And Optimistic Future Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) reported 9.9%/13.4% YoY revenue/net profit growth, led by growth from customers in the EMEA and Asia (with the US being a drag).
  • Earnings were more or less in line with our preview, Plover Bay (1523 HK): Preview On Earnings For H1 2025, but revenues were slightly weaker, and margins were stronger.
  • The stock trades at 21.5x PE FY25e (assuming 15% growth), with a 4.4% dividend yield (assuming an 80% payout), but we acknowledge there could be upside to our earnings. 

Softwar: An Intimate Portrait of Larry Ellison and Oracle $ORCL (Fintwit Book Club July 2025)

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Institutional investors are turning to AI to analyze SEC filings and earnings call transcripts, with Fintool offering a quicker and more efficient solution.
  • The biography of Larry Ellison, focusing on Oracle during the dot com crisis, provides insight into Ellison’s leadership style and business strategies.
  • Despite some mixed feelings about Oracle and Ellison’s personality, his vision for the future of computing, such as using commodity hardware and smartphones, has proven to be accurate in hindsight.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Microsoft FYQ425. Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance?

By William Keating

  • Q425 revenues of $76.4 billion, up 5.5% QoQ, 18% YoY and handily beating guidance of $73.8 billion.
  • Azure surpassed $75 billion in revenue in FY25, up 34% YoY, driven by growth across all workloads.
  • Contracted backlog grew by $53 billion QoQ to reach $368 billion. Wow!

Buy Hamee Corp

By Richard Howe

  • Some of my favorite situations are international spin-offs because they fly under the radar. Hamee has not been written up on VIC, Seeking Alpha or Twitter (I found one writeup on Substack).
  • The company is 3 months away from breaking up into two separate companies which both look attractive. It is currently classified as a Specialty Retail company but will spin off a high growth, high margin, SaaS company in November that I estimate is worth more than the entire company’s market cap today.
  • The stock looks compelling on an absolute basis (5.1x NTM EBITDA) and SOTP basis. I see 31% to 117% upside over the next 6 months as the break up is completed.

Asian Dividend Gems: Soft World Intl (5478 TT)

By Douglas Kim

  • Soft World International has an integrated value chain/sizeable moat for its game development, distribution, payments, content, and events in Taiwan. 
  • The company is trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, P/E of 13.4x, and P/B of 1.5x based on recent prices and LTM financials.
  • Net cash as a percentage of market cap is 79%. The company’s dividend yield remained steady at 6% in FY23 and FY24.

Apple 3Q25 (Jun-25): Good 10% Beat, 4Q 5% Above Consensus. Great but Questions on Services Remain

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 3Q25 saw an acceleration in revenues (+10% YoY) and EPS (+12%), after a long period of stagnation (2022-23-24 at ~3% growth). 4Q guidance is 5% above Consensus. 
  • Impact of US import tariffs is negligible. Services is the major growth driver and Apple has few answers on critical questions (Epic ruling, DoJ rulings against Google, AI roll out). 
  • The stock is expensive, as always  (27x FY26 EPS, 25x FY27 EPS) for sub-10% growth. Some people love the buybacks, the brand and dominant market position.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Hyundai chief partners with Samsung and Hanwha in US tariff push, showing collaboration between major companies to address trade issues.
  • Arm CEO considers in-house chip production, signaling a strategic shift for the company towards more control over its manufacturing process.
  • BOE secures half of Apple’s MacBook screen orders, displacing LG Display, showcasing the competitiveness in the display market.

Execution Remains Key For Mineral Resources

By FNArena

  • While Mineral Resources performed strongly operationally in the fourth quarter, not everyone is comfortable with its debt and the outlook for commodity prices.
  • -Mineral Resources’ strong fourth quarter across all segments -Production outperformance, strong cashflows at Wodgina and Onslow -Onslow progressing toward nameplate capacity -Improving balance sheet, but sensitivity to commodity prices remains

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/26, the company reported revenue of JPY549.6bn, operating profit of JPY144.7bn, and net income of JPY117.8bn.
  • The revised FY03/26 forecast projects revenue of JPY2.35tn, operating profit of JPY570.0bn, and net income of JPY444.0bn.
  • The company plans aggressive R&D investments, increasing from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25 to JPY295.0bn in FY03/26.

Brightstar Lottery Capital Return Continues to Exceed Expectations

By Richard Howe

  • Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) reported solid Q2 2025 results and is delivering on every aspect of the original thesis I laid out in June.
  • The company has now begun executing on the largest capital return in its history: a $3.00 per share tax-free special dividend (paid July 29) and a $250MM accelerated share repurchase (ASR) — the first half of a $500MM buyback authorization.
  • Brightstar also reiterated that it will maintain its $160MM annual dividend, so with fewer shares outstanding, the per-share dividend will increase, potentially rising to ~$0.22–$0.24 per quarter.

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Daily Brief India: Nesco Ltd, WeWork India Management Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Nesco: Strong Q1FY26 Led by the Exhibitions and the Foods Segments
  • WeWork India Pre-IPO – Lease Mismatch and Structural Strains


Nesco: Strong Q1FY26 Led by the Exhibitions and the Foods Segments

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Q1 tends to be a seasonally weak quarter. However, Nesco posted 60%+ YoY growth in the Exhibition business. The Foods business grew 147% YoY led by restaurants and catering division.
  • The IT Parks segment saw its revenue grow by 3.6% QoQ and 12% YoY in Q1FY26. Overall, Nesco’s revenue grew 37% YoY and PBT grew 23% YoY in Q1FY26.
  • Given that Nesco due to its leasing based revenue is a bond proxy investment, we are increasing our fair valuation target to take into account the low interest rate environment.

WeWork India Pre-IPO – Lease Mismatch and Structural Strains

By Akshat Shah

  • WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN) is looking to raise about US$407m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • WeWork India (WWI) offers a wide range of workspace solutions, including custom-designed buildings, floors, and offices; enterprise office suites; private offices; co-working spaces; customized managed offices; and hybrid digital solutions.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief China: Plover Bay Technologies, Joy City Property, Luckin Coffee, MGM China Holdings, BeiGene , Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Plover Bay (1523 HK): Slight Deceleration But Solid H1 FY25 And Optimistic Future Growth
  • Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash
  • Luckin Coffee’s U.S. Invasion: A Brewing Storm for Starbucks!
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 28–Aug 01): Reversal Hits, Breadth Collapses, Vol Steady


Plover Bay (1523 HK): Slight Deceleration But Solid H1 FY25 And Optimistic Future Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) reported 9.9%/13.4% YoY revenue/net profit growth, led by growth from customers in the EMEA and Asia (with the US being a drag).
  • Earnings were more or less in line with our preview, Plover Bay (1523 HK): Preview On Earnings For H1 2025, but revenues were slightly weaker, and margins were stronger.
  • The stock trades at 21.5x PE FY25e (assuming 15% growth), with a 4.4% dividend yield (assuming an 80% payout), but we acknowledge there could be upside to our earnings. 

Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash

By David Blennerhassett

  • Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) has announced a Scheme buyback, with a price of $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but more like a 158% premium to undisturbed. 
  • Yes, this is a 70% discount to NAV. Yet Joy City has traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe. 
  • The IFA will likely cite liquidity and Joy City’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and probably even “fair”. It is what it is for long-suffering shareholders.

Luckin Coffee’s U.S. Invasion: A Brewing Storm for Starbucks!

By Baptista Research

  • Luckin Coffee reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, underlining significant year-over-year growth in both revenue and profitability.
  • The company revealed a 41% increase in total net revenues, reaching approximately RMB 8.9 billion, mainly driven by a 42% rise in gross merchandise value (GMV) amounting to RMB 10.4 billion.
  • The growth in revenue was primarily fueled by expanded product sales through increased customer transactions, supported by an extensive store network.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, SK Hynix, Tata Steel, Vedanta Resources
  • Short-end UST yields rose slightly yesterday, extending Wednesday’s post-Fed curve flattening trend. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.96%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was stable at 4.38%. Equities ended the day mixed.
  • The S&P 500 erased a rally earlier in the day on renewed tariff concerns, declining 0.4% to 6,339. The Nasdaq closed flat at 21,122, after Microsoft and Meta Platforms reported solid results.

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
  • We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
  • $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 28–Aug 01): Reversal Hits, Breadth Collapses, Vol Steady

By John Ley

  • HSI reversed course with four straight down days to close the week sharply lower.
  • Breadth collapsed, with only a small fraction of names finishing higher; option volumes rose into the decline with Puts taking more than their usual share of activity.
  • Implied vols fell on the week, erasing last week’s gains and not showing signs of stress at this point.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, SK Hynix, Tata Steel, Vedanta Resources
  • Short-end UST yields rose slightly yesterday, extending Wednesday’s post-Fed curve flattening trend. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.96%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was stable at 4.38%. Equities ended the day mixed.
  • The S&P 500 erased a rally earlier in the day on renewed tariff concerns, declining 0.4% to 6,339. The Nasdaq closed flat at 21,122, after Microsoft and Meta Platforms reported solid results.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Samyang Comtech, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics, HK inno.N and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Samyang Comtech IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook After Disappointing Earnings
  • HK Inno.N (195940 KS): Mixed 2Q Result; Pipeline Progress to Maintain Positive Momentum


Samyang Comtech IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Samyang Comtech completed solid book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 7,700 won per share, which was at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A 48.4% of the total IPO shares are under various lock-up periods lasting from 15 days to 6 months. This is a bullish signal. 
  • Our valuation analysis suggests target price of 13,187 won, which represents a 71% upside from IPO price. Given the excellent upside, we have a Positive view of this IPO.

Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today’s selloff spooked the ruling party, prompting top lawmakers to signal tax tweak talks less than 24hrs after rollout — and they’re clearly watching the tape.
  • Cap gains threshold likely gets bumped to ₩3–5bn. STT hike stays. Div tax top rate may drop from 35% to 25% amid internal party push.
  • President Lee’s focused on pragmatism—cutting household debt and boosting corporate liquidity. Expect the tax narrative to pivot next week, sending local market sentiment in a new direction from Friday’s tape.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Hyundai chief partners with Samsung and Hanwha in US tariff push, showing collaboration between major companies to address trade issues.
  • Arm CEO considers in-house chip production, signaling a strategic shift for the company towards more control over its manufacturing process.
  • BOE secures half of Apple’s MacBook screen orders, displacing LG Display, showcasing the competitiveness in the display market.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook After Disappointing Earnings

By Nico Rosti

  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) 2Q earnings have been somehow disappointing for investors.
  • We don’t dissect the earnings details, as market reactions—regardless of headlines—almost always fall within the behavioral range defined by our model.
  • What we see right now is FEAR: Samsung Electronics was rallying hard, reached the tails area in our model, then retreated back sharply after the earnings.

HK Inno.N (195940 KS): Mixed 2Q Result; Pipeline Progress to Maintain Positive Momentum

By Tina Banerjee

  • HK inno.N (195940 KS) reported 2Q25 result, with double-digit revenue growth and decline in operating and net profit. Continued strong sales of prescription drug business remained the key driver.
  • During 2Q25, domestic outpatient prescription sales of K-CAB increased 14% YoY to KRW53B. Next major trigger for K-CAB will be the U.S. filing for both EE and NERD in 4Q25.
  • Recently, the company’s investigational new drug IN-115314 advances to Phase 3 trial for the treatment of atopic dermatitis in dogs. If approved, IN-115314 has blockbuster revenue potential.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash
  • Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative
  • Current Active Merger, Acquisition, and Liquidation Opportunities: An Overview
  • Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Mergers, Asset Sales, Litigation, High-Growth Opportunities


Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash

By David Blennerhassett

  • Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) has announced a Scheme buyback, with a price of $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but more like a 158% premium to undisturbed. 
  • Yes, this is a 70% discount to NAV. Yet Joy City has traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe. 
  • The IFA will likely cite liquidity and Joy City’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and probably even “fair”. It is what it is for long-suffering shareholders.

Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today’s selloff spooked the ruling party, prompting top lawmakers to signal tax tweak talks less than 24hrs after rollout — and they’re clearly watching the tape.
  • Cap gains threshold likely gets bumped to ₩3–5bn. STT hike stays. Div tax top rate may drop from 35% to 25% amid internal party push.
  • President Lee’s focused on pragmatism—cutting household debt and boosting corporate liquidity. Expect the tax narrative to pivot next week, sending local market sentiment in a new direction from Friday’s tape.

Current Active Merger, Acquisition, and Liquidation Opportunities: An Overview

By Special Situation Investments

  • ProAssurance merger with TDC faces potential regulatory hurdles, creating a short opportunity with limited downside and significant upside.
  • PMV Pharmaceuticals trades at a discount to net cash with imminent trial results and strategic review as catalysts.
  • Next Science plans to distribute US$30m from asset sale, offering a 13% spread to expected distribution price.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Mergers, Asset Sales, Litigation, High-Growth Opportunities

By Special Situation Investments

  • Yorkville Acquisition, Lutnick’s SPACs, and Renatus Tactical Acquisition are SPACs with political connections, targeting crypto and blockchain opportunities.
  • Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette faces legal challenges over a material adverse change, with a court hearing in September.
  • Currency Exchange International’s growth driven by FX Payments, potential uplisting, and closure of unprofitable Canadian business.

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Daily Brief Japan: Hamee Corp, Tokyo Electron, Kohsoku Corp, Chugoku Marine Paints, Shinmaywa Industries, Kanematsu Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, H2O Retailing, Financial Products Group Co, Jcr Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Buy Hamee Corp
  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Kohsoku Corp (7504 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Chugoku Marine Paints (4617 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Amid Declining Birth Rates and Working-Age Populations, Japan Still Hesitates to Embrace Diversity
  • H2O Retailing (8242 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
  • JCR Pharma (4552 JP): Izcargo Holds Revenue As Price Revision Impacts Growject; Guidance Reiterated


Buy Hamee Corp

By Richard Howe

  • Some of my favorite situations are international spin-offs because they fly under the radar. Hamee has not been written up on VIC, Seeking Alpha or Twitter (I found one writeup on Substack).
  • The company is 3 months away from breaking up into two separate companies which both look attractive. It is currently classified as a Specialty Retail company but will spin off a high growth, high margin, SaaS company in November that I estimate is worth more than the entire company’s market cap today.
  • The stock looks compelling on an absolute basis (5.1x NTM EBITDA) and SOTP basis. I see 31% to 117% upside over the next 6 months as the break up is completed.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/26, the company reported revenue of JPY549.6bn, operating profit of JPY144.7bn, and net income of JPY117.8bn.
  • The revised FY03/26 forecast projects revenue of JPY2.35tn, operating profit of JPY570.0bn, and net income of JPY444.0bn.
  • The company plans aggressive R&D investments, increasing from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25 to JPY295.0bn in FY03/26.

Kohsoku Corp (7504 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 14.0% YoY to JPY30.6bn, with operating profit up 16.1% YoY to JPY1.1bn.
  • Core product revenue grew: food product containers by 19.8% YoY, films and laminates by 11.4% YoY.
  • Gross profit reached JPY6.1bn (+15.9% YoY), with SG&A expenses totaling JPY5.0bn (+15.9% YoY).

Chugoku Marine Paints (4617 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/26, sales increased by 12.1% YoY, driven by marine and industrial paints, despite container paint declines.
  • Operating profit rose 16.5% YoY to JPY3.9bn, aided by optimized selling prices and high-value-added product sales.
  • Net income fell 48.9% YoY due to absence of prior extraordinary gains, despite improved gross profit margin.

Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Orders increased by 2.5% YoY to JPY74.3bn, while revenue rose by 0.4% YoY to JPY57.7bn.
  • The Special Purpose Truck business saw a 26.2% YoY rise in orders to JPY42.9bn, with revenue up 4.2%.
  • The company revised its FY03/26 forecast, expecting orders of JPY320.0bn and revenue of JPY285.0bn, despite weaker EV demand.

Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Companywide revenue remained flat YoY at JPY251.1bn, while operating profit decreased by 9.6% YoY to JPY10.6bn.
  • ICT Solution segment revenue rose 23.7% YoY, with operating profit increasing 64.0% YoY to JPY2.3bn.
  • Aerospace and motor vehicles business saw revenue decline by 16.6% YoY, with a 21.2% YoY drop in operating profit.

Amid Declining Birth Rates and Working-Age Populations, Japan Still Hesitates to Embrace Diversity

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since the government hasn’t taken any actions, the birth rate has dropped much lower than expected, and the population is shrinking much faster than predicted.
  • There are various reasons why more people are choosing not to marry. It is necessary to implement policies that meet the needs of people with diverse views.
  • With the decline in working-age population, it is necessary to incorporate as many diverse people as possible into human capital to maximize the abilities of as many people as possible.

H2O Retailing (8242 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/26, Department Store business operating profit fell 56.6% YoY due to lower gross profit and higher SG&A expenses.
  • Supermarket business operating profit increased 35.7% YoY, driven by higher gross profit from sales growth and new store formats.
  • Shopping Center business sales fell 8.5% YoY, impacted by subsidiary divestitures and ongoing guest room renovations at Ours Inn Hankyu.

Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenues reached JPY90.6bn (+11.5% YoY), driven by record-high sales in Domestic Real Estate Fund Business.
  • Operating profit was JPY19.2bn (-16.5% YoY), with a gross profit margin of 30.0% (-7.5pp YoY).
  • Non-operating income increased to JPY2.6bn (+17.2% YoY), while non-operating expenses decreased to JPY1.7bn (-7.3% YoY).

JCR Pharma (4552 JP): Izcargo Holds Revenue As Price Revision Impacts Growject; Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP) revenue increased 5% to ¥8.6B in Q1FY26, mainly driven by Izcargo, marred to an extent by NHI price revision impact on Growject.
  • Higher SG&A expenses (up 9%) on increased commission payments and increased R&D expenses (up 5% as clinical development activities progressed) resulted in operating loss of ¥606M.
  • JCR’s two pipeline drugs are under Phase III trials: pabinafusp alfa (JR-141) for Hunter syndrome and JR-142, for growth hormone deficiency. Approvals not expected before late FY27 or FY28.

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Daily Brief Macro: EA: Sticky Summer Inflation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EA: Sticky Summer Inflation
  • HEW: Atlantic Jobs Divide
  • CX Daily: China’s Politburo Strikes Cautious Tone on Economy
  • [ETP 2025/31] WTI Climbs While Henry Hub Swings; Shell Beat Estimates; Aramco Bets on AI


EA: Sticky Summer Inflation

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB’s victory party can continue for another month, as inflation proved surprisingly sticky at the target. But the hangover is disappointing, amid broad-based upside news.
  • Two-thirds of national outcomes exceeded our expectations, with a slight skew higher, and pressures concentrated in services. Seasonal travel parts would be payback-prone.
  • Another upside surprise to the ECB’s forecast makes the profile likely to shift higher in September. The news is the opposite of what is needed for another rate cut.

HEW: Atlantic Jobs Divide

By Phil Rush

  • Depressing revisions to US payroll data clash with the resilience seen in other data, and compare poorly with the bullish revisions to the Euro area’s labour market.
  • Jobs data challenge the Fed’s patient posture, while the Euro area’s sticky inflation and tighter labour markets should encourage it to keep rolling rate cuts later.
  • Thursday’s BoE decision sets unemployment’s rise against inflation persistence, leaving the outcome uncertain, yet it is likely to yield another split vote for a rate cut.

CX Daily: China’s Politburo Strikes Cautious Tone on Economy

By Caixin Global

  • TOP STORIES Policy / China’s Politburo strikes cautious tone on economy, signals flexible policy for second half At a Wednesday Politburo meeting, China’s top policymakers signaled a two-pronged economic strategy — maintaining policy stability while preparing for timely interventions.
  • The meeting came as China set the agenda for the Communist Party’s Fourth Plenary Session in October, which will focus on setting the 15th Five-Year Plan.
  • While acknowledging the economy’s steady performance — with growth holding above 5% for three consecutive quarters — the Politburo cautioned against emerging risks.

[ETP 2025/31] WTI Climbs While Henry Hub Swings; Shell Beat Estimates; Aramco Bets on AI

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI crude prices are on the way to close the week higher, supported by trade optimism, better economic data from the U.S., and ongoing geopolitical tensions.  
  • U.S. natural gas slips as mild weather, strong production, and unclear short-term demand weigh on prices.
  • Chevron adds John Hess to its board after merger approval; Shell tops Q2 estimates; Aramco partners with Cloudera to bring AI to energy.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: MAC Copper, Rio Tinto Ltd, Occidental Petroleum, Mast Energy Developments, Iron Ore, Asahi Holdings, Rio2, TotalEnergies , Valero Energy, Itochu Enex and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony’s Offer
  • Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations
  • [Earnings Preview] Occidental’s Q2 Earnings Under Pressure but Rebound Hopes Build
  • MED MAST.L Update Megawatt Momentum 3172025
  • [IO Technicals 2025/31] Muted Policy Support and Soft Demand Weigh on IO Prices
  • Asahi Holdings (5857 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • RIO: Increasing Target Price on Construction Progress
  • TotalEnergies Is Quietly Building An Energy Empire Across LNG
  • Valero Energy Corporation: Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Expansion
  • Itochu Enex (8133 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update


MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
  • Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date. 
  • A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair & reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context:Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.
  • Rio Tinto’s share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.
  • This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.

[Earnings Preview] Occidental’s Q2 Earnings Under Pressure but Rebound Hopes Build

By Suhas Reddy

  • Occidental’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 9.1% QoQ and 9.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to fall by 66.7% QoQ and 71.8% YoY.
  • Occidental expects Q2 performance to be weighed down by lower production and weaker commodity realizations, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Options activity and analyst outlooks suggest a potential rebound if earnings meet or beat subdued expectations.

MED MAST.L Update Megawatt Momentum 3172025

By ACF Equity Research

  • Mast Energy Developments plc (MAST.L, ESCC Transition) is a flexible power generation plant owner, developer and operator targeting >300 MW of new, grid critical, generation for the UK flexible power market by 2030.
  • Our current value range is based only on the first 150 MW.
  • Since our initiation MAST recently bought exclusive rights to five sub‑5 MW flexible‑generation sites from Green Light Energy (GLE).

[IO Technicals 2025/31] Muted Policy Support and Soft Demand Weigh on IO Prices

By Umang Agrawal

  • The Politburo signalled only mild policy easing on July 30, disappointing investors hoping for stronger measures to address China’s property slump.
  • China’s July NBS Manufacturing PMI fell, highlighting fading pre-tariff export momentum and persistently weak domestic demand conditions.
  • Prices are below the 9‑day moving average, and a bearish MACD crossover suggests a potential short‑term pullback.

Asahi Holdings (5857 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY137.1bn, a 48.6% YoY growth, driven by higher recovery volumes and improved profitability.
  • Operating profit rose to JPY5.9bn, a 63.9% YoY increase, with significant gains in electronics and dental sectors.
  • Precious Metals business saw substantial YoY operating profit growth, despite declines in catalyst area recovery volume and profit.

RIO: Increasing Target Price on Construction Progress

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • Rio2 provided an update on the construction progress at the Fenix Gold Project.
  • As of the end of Q2, construction is 41% complete and remains on track and on budget for first gold in Q1/26.
  • • With Q2 behind us, RIO approaches an inflection point of becoming a gold producer and taking advantage of the elevated gold price.

TotalEnergies Is Quietly Building An Energy Empire Across LNG

By Baptista Research

  • TotalEnergies released its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, navigating a turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
  • Challenges such as the Israel-Iran conflict and a US tariff war created market volatility, with oil prices fluctuating between $60 to $81 per barrel within the quarter.
  • The limited price increases during the Iran crisis signaled adequate oil market supply, influenced by OPEC+ decisions and slowed global demand due to economic conditions.

Valero Energy Corporation: Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Expansion

By Baptista Research

  • Valero Energy Corporation’s second quarter of 2025 financial performance indicates a blend of strong operational execution with challenges in certain segments.
  • On the positive side, Valero set a record for refining throughput rate in the U.S. Gulf Coast, showcasing the efficacy of their investments in optimization projects.
  • This operational efficiency was supported by robust refining margins, largely driven by strong product demand and low inventory levels globally, particularly in diesel, which saw sales volumes increase by about 10% year-over-year.

Itochu Enex (8133 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/26, Itochu Enex reported sales revenue of JPY203.2bn (-3.7% YoY) and operating profit of JPY6.0bn (+10.2% YoY).
  • The Home-Life Division’s operating profit rose 267.3% YoY to JPY404mn, driven by increased LP gas sales volume.
  • For FY03/26, Itochu Enex forecasts a 2.0% YoY decline in operating profit to JPY24.5bn, maintaining a dividend of JPY62 per share.

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