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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp
  • In the US, the second estimate for Q4/24 real GDP was unchanged from the advance estimate at an annualised rate of 2.3% q-o-q, driven by a 4.2% increase (unchanged) in consumer spending. That said, the core PCE price index was revised upwards to 2.7% (from 2.5% in the advance estimate).
  • Full-year real GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.8% y-o-y (vs. 2.9% in 2023). Separately, durable goods orders rose 3.1% m-o-m in January (2.0% e / -1.8% p).

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International
  • Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.
  • Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
  • BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms
  • Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO
  • Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism

HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International

By David Blennerhassett

Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • During yesterday’s Option expiration day, Tencent (700 HK) experienced an intra-day swing of 4.1%.
  • Trading in the afternoon oscillated around the prominent 500 strike level. Around 66% of calls and 2% of puts expired in the money.
  • Volume was lower than in the preceding days; a total of 38 million shares were traded, with the morning session accounting for 53% of the volume.

Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS’s aggressive net buying over the past four months? Just a 3% buffer rebalance—not some structural bullish call on K-stocks.
  • Street intel points to NPS capping buys in the low-14% range, 1%p below target, only defending against dips. With short selling back on from March 31, further buying looks unlikely.
  • With NPS stepping back and retail still weak, no real size remains on the buy side. Short flow could hit harder than expected—time to price it in and adjust positioning.

BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Revised Offer Terms: BBVA increased the cash payment to €0.13/Sabadell share (raising total cash outlay to €705 million), while adjusting the exchange ratio to 5.3456 Sabadell shares per BBVA share.
  • The deal requires CNMC, CNMV, and government approvals, with market skepticism evident as Sabadell’s market price exceeds the offer value, signaling a low probability of success under current terms.
  • Financial Impact on BBVA: The increased cash component raises the estimated CET1 capital impact to 51bps, with potential further dilution if BBVA raises the cash payment to €0.20-€0.30 per share.

Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Onesource Specialty Pharma (ONESOURC IN) has transitioned from a niche player to a multi-modality CDMO powerhouse through strategic restructuring, rapid revenue expansion, and aggressive capacity building.
  • With a projected INR1,400 crore revenue in FY25 (INR173 crore in FY24) and shifting from MSA to CSA contracts, OS is stabilizing its revenue model, tapping into high-growth segments.
  • By leveraging a first-mover advantage in GLP-1, regulatory strength, and a $100 million capex plan, OS is positioning itself to become a billion-dollar global CDMO leader within the next 3-4Yrs.

Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.
  • Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.
  • In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders’ decisions on the competing takeover offers.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.
  • Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)
  • Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)
  • Cantabil Retail Ltd- Inventory Concerns Evident
  • Kinatico Interview Transcript post H1 FY25 result

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Hong Kong has halted land sales in order to boost the office market within the region.
  • Singapore’s Centurion saw their profits more than double to $257M, driven by soaring property valuations.
  • Alibaba announces plans to invest a substantial $53 billion in AI infrastructure development.

Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

By Sameer Taneja

  • Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in Mongolian Mining (975 HK) that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.
  • Prime Minister’s Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.
  • As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. 

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
  • January’s revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
  • We take down emerging consensus view that “all trade disruptions are good for carriers”

Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry

By William Keating

  • Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company
  • They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip
  • They’re not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let’s see

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia published a solid set of FY2024 results, with sales growth to +7.4% YoY, although FY2024 net profit was down slightly due to cost pressures and higher promotional spending.
  • The company continues to see a favourable product mix shift towards higher-end tiles, especially its ARNA porcelain brand. New capacity coming on stream in 2025 will provide a further boost.
  • The gas subsidy has yet to be confirmed for the ceramic industry, but expectations are that it will come through shortly. Arwana Citramulia valuations remain attractive, with higher growth ahead.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia booked a strong finish to FY2024, as bookings increased by YoY and HoH, with the NPF ratio falling at the same time leading to higher revenues. 
  • The company’s loan growth momentum has picked up considerably as indicated by management in the previous quarter, which should be reassuring for investors, with growth set to continue in 2025.
  • BFI Finance Indonesia has yet to see a meaningful contribution from its collaboration with GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, which is a potential future growth driver. Valuations attractive on PBV to ROE. 

Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
  • Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy & the Positive DRAM Market Outlook
  • Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix & Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 3 March.
  • Our top 10 Korean stock picks from 14 to 28 January are down on average 1.8%, slightly outperforming KOSPI which is down 2.2% in the same period.
  • The top 10 Korean stock picks (bi-weekly) include SL Corp, Korea Electric Terminal, BNK Financial, S1, LX International, Doubleugames, Samsung C&T, Amorepacific Corp (pref), SK Telecom, and POSCO International. 

Cantabil Retail Ltd- Inventory Concerns Evident

By Nitin Mangal

  • Cantabil Retail India (CANT IN) is one of the few vertically integrated garment players and has a store count of 576 and retail space of 7.4 lakh sq.ft.
  • The company has done well over the last five years to improve its financial position; it has grown its topline at a healthy rate while margins have improved significantly.
  • But having said that, we have concerns with elevated inventory levels that have remained high historically for a garment player. Moreover, some capital advances and RPT should also be considered.

Kinatico Interview Transcript post H1 FY25 result

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • RaaS Research Group interviewed CEO Michael Ivanchenko post the H1 FY25 results.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Macro: The Other Risk to World Trade: China’s Mercantilism and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Other Risk to World Trade: China’s Mercantilism
  • CX Daily: Chinese Local Governments Foresee Heightened Fiscal Pressure
  • Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024
  • HEW: Tariffs Trumped Data
  • [ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

The Other Risk to World Trade: China’s Mercantilism

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • While America’s restrictions threaten the global trading order, China’s outdated, export-reliant model is culpable, too. In exporting its overcapacity, China behaves like a small, open economy, but it is not.
  • Given its size, China’s export surges produce outsized effects, triggering protectionist responses. China’s friends in the Global South are scrambling to defend their domestic industries, and not just the  West.
  • Until China finds a way to recycle its surpluses into investments in other countries, trading partners will suffer the downsides of import competition without any offsets, thus worsening trade tensions.

CX Daily: Chinese Local Governments Foresee Heightened Fiscal Pressure

By Caixin Global

  • Fiscal / In Depth: Chinese local governments foresee heightened fiscal pressure
  • Stocks /: As Hong Kong stocks surge, foreign investors stay on sidelines
  • Hong Kong /: Hong Kong considers regulating basketball betting to boost revenue

Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Production up 3.18% YoY and imports up 19.42% in 2024  
  • Production-Consumption gap 526,000 tons  
  • Commerce Minister dodges floor price plea by smallholders

HEW: Tariffs Trumped Data

By Phil Rush

  • Resilience in Euro area price and wage inflation, ESI surveys, and hawkish comments in the latest meeting accounts were trumped by US events. Renewed tariff threats and soft US surveys led a dovish repricing for the Fed that also dominated for the ECB.
  • Next week has more top tier releases, starting with flash EA inflation for February where we are still a tenth above consensus at 2.4%. That won’t stop the ECB cutting, but should encourage restraint for April. US payrolls and tariffs are the other highlights.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Industrials: ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Arwana Citramulia, SL Corp, HSD Engine Co., Ltd., PostNL NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 43 Companies in Korea in March 2025
  • PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
  • January’s revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
  • We take down emerging consensus view that “all trade disruptions are good for carriers”

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia published a solid set of FY2024 results, with sales growth to +7.4% YoY, although FY2024 net profit was down slightly due to cost pressures and higher promotional spending.
  • The company continues to see a favourable product mix shift towards higher-end tiles, especially its ARNA porcelain brand. New capacity coming on stream in 2025 will provide a further boost.
  • The gas subsidy has yet to be confirmed for the ceramic industry, but expectations are that it will come through shortly. Arwana Citramulia valuations remain attractive, with higher growth ahead.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 3 March.
  • Our top 10 Korean stock picks from 14 to 28 January are down on average 1.8%, slightly outperforming KOSPI which is down 2.2% in the same period.
  • The top 10 Korean stock picks (bi-weekly) include SL Corp, Korea Electric Terminal, BNK Financial, S1, LX International, Doubleugames, Samsung C&T, Amorepacific Corp (pref), SK Telecom, and POSCO International. 

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 43 Companies in Korea in March 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight provide a list of 43 stocks (2 KOSPI and 41 KOSDAQ) with end of mandatory lock-up periods for certain shares in March 2025.
  • Some of the companies mentioned in this insight which highlights the end of major lockup periods in March could help to narrow down the list of candidates for potential shorting.
  • Among these 43 stocks, the top five market cap stocks that could be sold after end of lock-up/total outstanding shares include Hanwha Engine, GI Innovation, Orum Therapeutics, and Angel Robotics.

PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Jumbo has found an interim CEO • KPN | Ziggo to increase the download speed for all broadband subscribers • Unilever | former owners believed to be interested in buying back Ben & Jerry’s • InPost / PostNL | Vinted Go to roll out APMs in the Netherlands and Belgium • Van Lanschot Kempen | some post-earnings call remarks • Kendrion | sets itself a challenging FY25 EBITDA-margin goal of at least 15%

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, Mongolian Mining, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Ercros , Crude Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025
  • Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst
  • Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024
  • Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism
  • [ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.
  • Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.
  • Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.

Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

By Sameer Taneja

  • Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in Mongolian Mining (975 HK) that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.
  • Prime Minister’s Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.
  • As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. 

Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Production up 3.18% YoY and imports up 19.42% in 2024  
  • Production-Consumption gap 526,000 tons  
  • Commerce Minister dodges floor price plea by smallholders

Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.
  • Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.
  • In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders’ decisions on the competing takeover offers.

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Industrials: ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Arwana Citramulia, SL Corp, HSD Engine Co., Ltd., PostNL NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 43 Companies in Korea in March 2025
  • PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
  • January’s revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
  • We take down emerging consensus view that “all trade disruptions are good for carriers”

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia published a solid set of FY2024 results, with sales growth to +7.4% YoY, although FY2024 net profit was down slightly due to cost pressures and higher promotional spending.
  • The company continues to see a favourable product mix shift towards higher-end tiles, especially its ARNA porcelain brand. New capacity coming on stream in 2025 will provide a further boost.
  • The gas subsidy has yet to be confirmed for the ceramic industry, but expectations are that it will come through shortly. Arwana Citramulia valuations remain attractive, with higher growth ahead.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 3 March.
  • Our top 10 Korean stock picks from 14 to 28 January are down on average 1.8%, slightly outperforming KOSPI which is down 2.2% in the same period.
  • The top 10 Korean stock picks (bi-weekly) include SL Corp, Korea Electric Terminal, BNK Financial, S1, LX International, Doubleugames, Samsung C&T, Amorepacific Corp (pref), SK Telecom, and POSCO International. 

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 43 Companies in Korea in March 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight provide a list of 43 stocks (2 KOSPI and 41 KOSDAQ) with end of mandatory lock-up periods for certain shares in March 2025.
  • Some of the companies mentioned in this insight which highlights the end of major lockup periods in March could help to narrow down the list of candidates for potential shorting.
  • Among these 43 stocks, the top five market cap stocks that could be sold after end of lock-up/total outstanding shares include Hanwha Engine, GI Innovation, Orum Therapeutics, and Angel Robotics.

PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Jumbo has found an interim CEO • KPN | Ziggo to increase the download speed for all broadband subscribers • Unilever | former owners believed to be interested in buying back Ben & Jerry’s • InPost / PostNL | Vinted Go to roll out APMs in the Netherlands and Belgium • Van Lanschot Kempen | some post-earnings call remarks • Kendrion | sets itself a challenging FY25 EBITDA-margin goal of at least 15%

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Mobvista, Tencent, Entegris Inc, China Mobile, Intel Corp, Xiaomi Corp, Nanya Technology, Kinatico , Restar Holdings Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International
  • Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.
  • Entegris (ENTG US) Promotion to S&P MidCap400
  • China Mobile (941 HK) Pullback Offers a Tactical Re-Entry Opportunity
  • Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
  • Kinatico Interview Transcript post H1 FY25 result
  • Restar (3156 JP) – Positioning for Future Demand Upturn
  • Kinatico Ltd – HIgher-margin SaaS revenue, flat costs propel EBITDA

HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International

By David Blennerhassett

Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • During yesterday’s Option expiration day, Tencent (700 HK) experienced an intra-day swing of 4.1%.
  • Trading in the afternoon oscillated around the prominent 500 strike level. Around 66% of calls and 2% of puts expired in the money.
  • Volume was lower than in the preceding days; a total of 38 million shares were traded, with the morning session accounting for 53% of the volume.

Entegris (ENTG US) Promotion to S&P MidCap400

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night, the S&P announced that with the deletion of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) from the S&P Midcap 400, Entegris Inc (ENTG US) would replace it.
  • Entegris is a company providing Materials Solutions and Purity Solutions to the semiconductor industry (they sell to circuit/memory cos, SPE mfrs, gas/chem cos, wafer growers, etc.
  • Because of how this company is being added, it is a bit interesting. It will be effective Wednesday 5 March at the close with US$1.2bn to buy.

China Mobile (941 HK) Pullback Offers a Tactical Re-Entry Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • In our last insight covering  China Mobile (941 HK) we said the stock was overbought. It made a sharp pullback last week that may turn into a good BUY opportunity.
  • Support levels to buy range from 79.1 to 76.4, assuming this pullback is a buy-the-dip scenario, something we will discuss in this insight.
  • If the stock resumes its rally, the next WEEKLY profit targets will be between 82.64 and 84.4.

Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry

By William Keating

  • Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company
  • They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip
  • They’re not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let’s see

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp
  • In the US, the second estimate for Q4/24 real GDP was unchanged from the advance estimate at an annualised rate of 2.3% q-o-q, driven by a 4.2% increase (unchanged) in consumer spending. That said, the core PCE price index was revised upwards to 2.7% (from 2.5% in the advance estimate).
  • Full-year real GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.8% y-o-y (vs. 2.9% in 2023). Separately, durable goods orders rose 3.1% m-o-m in January (2.0% e / -1.8% p).

Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
  • Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy & the Positive DRAM Market Outlook
  • Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix & Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative

Kinatico Interview Transcript post H1 FY25 result

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • RaaS Research Group interviewed CEO Michael Ivanchenko post the H1 FY25 results.

Restar (3156 JP) – Positioning for Future Demand Upturn

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-3 FY3/25 results underlined Restar’s positive sales growth profile (+11.2% YoY) driven by its roll-up M&A strategy, a strong demand environment for cameras and PC-related products in consumer products, and smartphone demand driving EMS activity YoY.
  • However, headwinds persist in the form of continued delay in demand recovery from the Industrial sector, a sales mix lowering gross margin, and negative impact from a strengthening Japanese yen.
  • We have not seen concrete evidence of cost savings from post-merger integration activities. 

Kinatico Ltd – HIgher-margin SaaS revenue, flat costs propel EBITDA

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • The company has reported H1 FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $2.3m, up 17% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 10% ahead of our forecast.
  • Reported EBITDA was $2.1m, up 9% on the pcp.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Alibaba Group Holding , Banco De Sabadell SA, BFI Finance Indonesia, Aoyama Zaisan Networks Co Lt, Resona Holdings, Allianz , Ohmyhome and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.
  • BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn
  • Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard
  • Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact
  • OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications

Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS’s aggressive net buying over the past four months? Just a 3% buffer rebalance—not some structural bullish call on K-stocks.
  • Street intel points to NPS capping buys in the low-14% range, 1%p below target, only defending against dips. With short selling back on from March 31, further buying looks unlikely.
  • With NPS stepping back and retail still weak, no real size remains on the buy side. Short flow could hit harder than expected—time to price it in and adjust positioning.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Hong Kong has halted land sales in order to boost the office market within the region.
  • Singapore’s Centurion saw their profits more than double to $257M, driven by soaring property valuations.
  • Alibaba announces plans to invest a substantial $53 billion in AI infrastructure development.

BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Revised Offer Terms: BBVA increased the cash payment to €0.13/Sabadell share (raising total cash outlay to €705 million), while adjusting the exchange ratio to 5.3456 Sabadell shares per BBVA share.
  • The deal requires CNMC, CNMV, and government approvals, with market skepticism evident as Sabadell’s market price exceeds the offer value, signaling a low probability of success under current terms.
  • Financial Impact on BBVA: The increased cash component raises the estimated CET1 capital impact to 51bps, with potential further dilution if BBVA raises the cash payment to €0.20-€0.30 per share.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia booked a strong finish to FY2024, as bookings increased by YoY and HoH, with the NPF ratio falling at the same time leading to higher revenues. 
  • The company’s loan growth momentum has picked up considerably as indicated by management in the previous quarter, which should be reassuring for investors, with growth set to continue in 2025.
  • BFI Finance Indonesia has yet to see a meaningful contribution from its collaboration with GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, which is a potential future growth driver. Valuations attractive on PBV to ROE. 

Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Well positioned to capitalize on Japan’s intergenerational wealth transfer megatrend – The company continues to demonstrate positive growth momentum as evidenced by the double-digit topline growth in Q1-4 FY12/24.
  • The recent Chester Group acquisition should reinforce its position to ride the powerful trend in Japan’s aging demographics and intergenerational wealth transfer.
  • We think the company’s strategic approach towards allocating capital to the growth of the business while minimizing shareholder dilution through share buybacks demonstrates a commitment to shareholder value and financial discipline.

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard

By Victor Galliano

  • We introduce our Japanese big cap banks scorecard; from this, we pick Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with our wildcard being Shizuoka
  • The scorecard metrics measure leverage to higher interest rates, LDRs, levels of cash balances, bond exposures, cross-holdings and valuations; from this, we derive a weighted ranking for each bank
  • We remove Concordia from our buy list; we prefer Shizuoka for its better leverage to rising rates and high ratio of cross-holdings to market capitalization with a holdings reduction plan

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
  • Near-Term we wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
  • This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.

OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The number of units in the company’s property management segment grew 23% sequentially in 3Q24 to 9,283 from 7,560 at the end of 2Q24.
  • OMH attributes this to its expanded presence in the property management space.
  • Its goal is to continue to increase the number of units under management, which Ohmyhome believes will contribute to growing Property Management segment and consolidated revenue, in part reflecting cross-promotional opportunities as a growth driver.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Onesource Specialty Pharma, Kestra Medical Technologies, BeiGene , Imunon , Lantheus Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO
  • Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): Medical Device IPO Story Easy to Digest Amidst Market Volatility
  • BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025
  • IMNN: Phase 3 Ovarian Cancer Trial to get Underway in Mar 2025
  • LNTH: 2025 Guidance Provided

Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Onesource Specialty Pharma (ONESOURC IN) has transitioned from a niche player to a multi-modality CDMO powerhouse through strategic restructuring, rapid revenue expansion, and aggressive capacity building.
  • With a projected INR1,400 crore revenue in FY25 (INR173 crore in FY24) and shifting from MSA to CSA contracts, OS is stabilizing its revenue model, tapping into high-growth segments.
  • By leveraging a first-mover advantage in GLP-1, regulatory strength, and a $100 million capex plan, OS is positioning itself to become a billion-dollar global CDMO leader within the next 3-4Yrs.

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): Medical Device IPO Story Easy to Digest Amidst Market Volatility

By IPO Boutique

  • Wearable defibrillator maker, Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS US) is set to debut on Thursday (3/6) seeking a cash raise of up to $160 million and a valuation between $667m-$762.
  • The deal is considered well-oversubscribed from continued 1-on-1 conversions and high-quality engagements.
  • Given the financials and sector in which this company operates in and the strong backing (Bain Capital), we continue to believe this IPO will be well-received despite any market volatility.

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 4Q24, BeiGene (6160 HK) reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. 
  • Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.
  • Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.

IMNN: Phase 3 Ovarian Cancer Trial to get Underway in Mar 2025

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On February 27, 2025, Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) announced financial results for 2024 and provided a business update.
  • The company is currently finishing preparations to conduct a Phase 3 clinical trial of its lead development compound, IMNN-001, in the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer.
  • We anticipate the 500-patient trial will initiate before the end of the first quarter of 2025.

LNTH: 2025 Guidance Provided

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Lantheus is a leader in radiopharmaceutical offerings in oncology & precision diagnostics.
  • It offers a portfolio of diagnostic & therapeutic products directly & via partnerships & licensing.
  • The primary revenue driver is Pylarify, a PET tracer for PSMA-expressing prostate cancer.

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