
In today’s briefing:
- Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
- JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal
- S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback
- ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue
- Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline
- Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine
- Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.
- Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers
- Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
- Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
- It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
- And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
- The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).
JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal
- Jamco Corp (7408 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY1,800 per share, a 27.8% premium to the last close.
- The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in mid-February, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges.
- On the other hand, the offer is light as it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the modest required acceptance rate suggests a done deal.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback
- Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but…
- …we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
- Looking for support on the S&P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish
ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue
- Q424 volume growth for J&T’s two main segments accelerated — but how’d they do it?
- In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
- We believe J&T’s volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs
Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline
- Macquarie’s final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
- Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
- The offer aligns closely with Renewi’s intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.
Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine
Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.
- The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
- Energy Technology (14.0% of the index) was down 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 1.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.4% of index) was down 5.3%.
- Top 10 Performers: SPI, BNRG, AZRE, ARVL, TGEN, ARBE, EGT, GP, GCEI, PSI
Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers
- Nextracker’s recent earnings highlight a mix of positive developments and some areas of caution for potential investors in the solar tracking industry.
- The company has reported another strong quarter with double-digit revenue growth for the seventh consecutive time, underscoring robust operational execution and strong demand for its products across various markets.
- With a significant revenue increase of 29% year-over-year for the first half of fiscal 2025, Nextracker has demonstrated its ability to capture market share effectively.
Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
- Revenue increased by 14.7% YoY to JPY19.9bn, driven by strong performance in Emergency and Preventive Maintenance Services.
- Operating profit rose 28.8% YoY to JPY1.4bn, with an operating profit margin of 7.1%, up 0.8pp YoY.
- Year-end dividend forecast revised to JPY32.0 per share, up JPY4.0, reflecting improved business performance for FY02/25.