Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
• This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
• At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.

• TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
• Conclusion — Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
• TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% — US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC’s Unique AI Exposure

• 3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
• Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  
• Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.

• The acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) has been completed today, 17 July and Ansys is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100.
• CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to Nasdaq100 as the replacement because it is the highest ranked eligible non-constituent following its recent listing on 28 March 2025.
• Top addition candidate for the December 2025 annual review is now Kimberly Clark (KMB US) following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 30 May 2025.

• Square Enix holds globally recognized IP with monetization upside across platforms, and recent pipeline discipline signals a shift toward higher-margin, high-quality titles that can stabilize earnings and restore growth.
• Activist involvement is intensifying, creating strong pressure for capital returns, governance reform, and strategic clarity – unlocking shareholder value in a business that remains structurally underleveraged and undervalued vs peers.
• With operating margins improving, digital sales accelerating, and cost structures being realigned, Square Enix is positioned to re-rate meaningfully as investor confidence rebuilds and management delivers on core turnaround objectives.

• The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the final rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We see three ADDs/DELs and one float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$364mn in one-way index flows in September 2025.

• Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

• Computershare presented a robust performance in its first-half FY ’25 results.
• The company reported Management Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.653, an 18.7% increase over the previous period, driven by strong business momentum despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate changes.
• The company’s management aims to build a simplified, high-quality, and capital-light business model, as evidenced by their recent divestment of the U.S. Mortgage Services business.

• Surecore offers a one-stop shop for SoC and IP design, from architecture to test, chip evaluation, and more
• Surecore’s team of highly experienced memory and mixed signal designers differentiate them from other design services providers
• Surecore’s expertise in low power design helps customers overcome challenges in advanced nodes, such as leakage and thermal management, ensuring sustainable next generation silicon solutions

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• BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (Besi) recently reported its first quarter 2025 results, underlining a mixed performance amidst a challenging market environment.
• The company achieved revenues of €144.1 million, marking a slight decline of 1.5% compared to the same quarter last year.
• This reduction reflects continued weaknesses in the mobile and automotive markets, although there was some compensation from a surge in demand related to hybrid bonding and AI-related computing applications.