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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Jamco Corp, Tokyo Metro, S&P 500 INDEX, J&T Global Express , Renewi, Marco Polo Marine, Clean Energy Technologies , NEXTracker , Shin Pro Maint and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
  • JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback
  • ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue
  • Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline
  • Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.
  • Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers
  • Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update


Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap

By Travis Lundy

  • Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
  • It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
  • And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
  • The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Jamco Corp (7408 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY1,800 per share, a 27.8% premium to the last close.
  • The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in mid-February, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges.
  • On the other hand, the offer is light as it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the modest required acceptance rate suggests a done deal. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

By Joe Jasper

  • Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but…
  • …we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
  • Looking for support on the S&P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q424 volume growth for J&T’s two main segments accelerated — but how’d they do it?
  • In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
  • We believe J&T’s volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs

Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Macquarie’s final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
  • Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
  • The offer aligns closely with Renewi’s intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.

Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine

By Geoff Howie

Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
  • Energy Technology (14.0% of the index) was down 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 1.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.4% of index) was down 5.3%.
  • Top 10 Performers: SPI, BNRG, AZRE, ARVL, TGEN, ARBE, EGT, GP, GCEI, PSI

Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nextracker’s recent earnings highlight a mix of positive developments and some areas of caution for potential investors in the solar tracking industry.
  • The company has reported another strong quarter with double-digit revenue growth for the seventh consecutive time, underscoring robust operational execution and strong demand for its products across various markets.
  • With a significant revenue increase of 29% year-over-year for the first half of fiscal 2025, Nextracker has demonstrated its ability to capture market share effectively.

Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 14.7% YoY to JPY19.9bn, driven by strong performance in Emergency and Preventive Maintenance Services.
  • Operating profit rose 28.8% YoY to JPY1.4bn, with an operating profit margin of 7.1%, up 0.8pp YoY.
  • Year-end dividend forecast revised to JPY32.0 per share, up JPY4.0, reflecting improved business performance for FY02/25.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Suven Pharmaceuticals, Mani Inc, UMP Healthcare, Lantheus Holdings, Soligenix , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Sits On A Blocking Stake. And Me (Maybe) Eating Humble Pie
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break
  • Suven Pharmaceuticals (SUVENPHA IN): M&A to Expand Technical Capabilities and Enhance Scale
  • Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Loosing Shine In China; Margins Eroding; FY25 Guidance Reiterated
  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Earnings Preview for H1 FY25
  • LNTH: LMI Acquisition and NeuraCeq
  • SNGX: Additional Positive Outcomes in Investigator-Initiated Study of HyBryte in CTCL
  • Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified


Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Sits On A Blocking Stake. And Me (Maybe) Eating Humble Pie

By David Blennerhassett

  • I was wrong. Loyal Valley Capital (LVC) have stopped buying Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK) – or have not bought since reaching a blocking stake of 7.8295% on the 9th January. 
  • LVC could either use that stake as leverage to negotiate with the Offeror on the scrip terms. Or blow up the deal and pick up shares after the deal breaks 
  • OR perhaps, as per my initial impression,  LVC tenders. And they may still do that. It should be this straightforward; but the fact that it is not raises questions. 

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

By Arun George

  • The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
  • I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
  • Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.

Suven Pharmaceuticals (SUVENPHA IN): M&A to Expand Technical Capabilities and Enhance Scale

By Tina Banerjee

  • Suven Pharmaceuticals (SUVENPHA IN) is acquiring56% equity share capital of ADC/XDC-focused CRDMO, NJ Bio for $64M, strengthening position in a high growth market.  
  • In June 2024, Suven announced the acquisition of a majority stake in an oligonucleotide focused CDMO player, Sapala Organics, thereby adding another high-growth complex technology to its CDMO business.
  • Recently, shareholders have approved Suven’s merger with Cohance Lifesciences. Cohance has global leadership in select low-mid volume molecules as well as unique capabilities in the form of its ADC platform.

Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Loosing Shine In China; Margins Eroding; FY25 Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mani Inc (7730 JP) Q1FY25 revenue rose 8% YoY, mainly driven by surgical and eyeless needles segments, and favorable foreign exchange. However, profitability declined year-over-year.
  • Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Dental segment contributes more than 30% of total revenue.
  • Mani shares plunged 20% since it published its Q1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Earnings Preview for H1 FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) will report its results in late February. We estimate low single-digit revenue growth of 3% YoY, in line with the past two semiannuals.
  • We flagged cost-cutting initiatives in UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong and Webinar Updates, which would result in 25% YoY profit growth. 
  • Trading at 6.4x FY25e PE, with a 10% dividend yield and 85% of the market capitalization in net cash and investments, the stock has the potential to double. 

LNTH: LMI Acquisition and NeuraCeq

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (LNTH)

SNGX: Additional Positive Outcomes in Investigator-Initiated Study of HyBryte in CTCL

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On January 14, 2025, Soligenix, Inc. (SNGX) announced additional interim data from the open-label, investigator-initiated study (IIS) testing HyBryte treatment in patients with cutaneous T cell lymphoma (CTCL) for up to 12 months.
  • Thus far, nine patients have been enrolled and treated with HyBryte for up to 54 weeks.
  • Over 80% (5/6 that have completed at least 18 weeks of therapy) have already achieved treatment success, which is defined in the study protocol as a =50% improvement in the cumulative mCAILS.

Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Hengrui plans to IPO in Hong Kong, but it hasn’t yet completed the business transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs, and is still facing the negative impact of VBP.
  • The key point is whether the innovative drug business has sustained high enough growth rate to offset the decline in generic drug business so as to support the high valuation.
  • Hengrui is overvalued in A-Share. We think Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene (6160 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) in Hong Kong stock market.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung Electronics, Shift Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Toyota Motor, Money Forward , WingArc1st Inc, Silicon Laboratories, Allegro.eu and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung Electronics’ Key Inflection Point: Lee Jae-Yong’s Final Appeal Ruling on February 3
  • Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale
  • Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say.
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jan-2025): China’s semiconductor bankruptcies mount.
  • Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Growth Engine Shows Resilience
  • WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
  • Silicon Labs: An Insight Into Its Recent Design Win Ramps & Market Share Growth!
  • ALE PW – What’s News in Amsterdam – 14 January 2025 (Ahold Delhaize | Philips | InPost / Allegro)


Samsung Electronics’ Key Inflection Point: Lee Jae-Yong’s Final Appeal Ruling on February 3

By Sanghyun Park

  • Some speculate Samsung might delay the value-up announcement until after the February 3 ruling, using it strategically to influence the verdict and align with the appeal’s outcome.
  • Market chatter even surrounds Samsung’s HBM test delays with NVIDIA, with some linking it to Lee Jae-yong’s February 3 appeal ruling—though it seems more like speculative conspiracy.
  • If Lee Jae-yong wins his appeal on February 3, it could trigger key events like value-up disclosure and HBM pass, significantly impacting Samsung’s short-term price action and positions.

Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several years, one of the biggest risk factors on Samsung Electronics and other Samsung Group affiliates has been the huge inheritance tax payments by the Lee family.
  • Despite the weak share price performances of the four major Samsung Group affiliates, their consolidated equity increased by 31.4% on average from end of 2019 to end of 3Q 2024.
  • Once Lee family pays off the fifth installment in 2025, the market could look upon this situation more favorably due to reduced overhang associated with additional future inheritance tax payments.

Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%

By Michael Allen

  • Shift reported a 95% increase in OP, to ¥3.2bn, compared to consensus estimate of ¥2.6bn on January 14 after the close.
  • Just under 5 months ago, we suggested the stock was about 45% undervalued. It is up 40%.
  • We still expect 20% annual growth through 2030. This is no longer a turnaround stock, but now one of the most solid growth stocks in the market.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say.

By Patrick Liao

  • There is a great opportunity for someone joining an advanced semiconductor manufacturing camp because there could be fewer players in the field.  
  • For a long time, TSMC production staff have won better bonuses in the company, meaning they might be able to overcome the difficulties in production.  
  • Rapidus might need another 5 years or more to become profitable if everything runs smoothly for 2nm technology. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jan-2025): China’s semiconductor bankruptcies mount.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • China’s semiconductor industry faces devastation with 10,000 companies going bankrupt and hiring coming to a halt.
  • Biden shifts chip strategy favoring TSMC over Intel as his term nears end, signaling a change in approach.
  • Advancements in technology may soon make ‘one robot per household’ a reality, with AI chip export ban discussions ongoing.

Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Growth Engine Shows Resilience

By Mark Chadwick

  • Money Forward, Japan’s leading SaaS provider, reported strong results for its fiscal year ending November 2024: Sales +33% YoY to ¥40.4 billion
  • FY11/25 EBITDA guidance of ¥3.5 billion significantly lags consensus expectations of ¥6 billion. 
  • The disappointing EBITDA guidance may trigger further selling, but there is no material change to the company’s long-term fundamentals. Time to be bullish

WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for cumulative Q3 FY02/25 was JPY21.6bn, operating profit JPY6.5bn, net income JPY4.7bn, EBITDA JPY7.6bn.
  • BDS sales revenue rose 12.7% YoY to JPY14.2bn, with cloud services growing 17.3% YoY, invoiceAgent JPY1.7bn.
  • Full-year FY02/25 forecast revised to revenue JPY28.5bn, operating profit JPY8.1bn, EBITDA JPY9.6bn, profit JPY5.9bn.

Silicon Labs: An Insight Into Its Recent Design Win Ramps & Market Share Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Silicon Laboratories delivered mixed results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024.
  • The company’s revenue reached $166 million, which marked a 14% sequential increase, although it was down 18% year-over-year due to persisting issues related to excess inventory among distributors and end customers.
  • Despite this decline, Silicon Laboratories managed to surpass the midpoint of its revenue guidance, signaling some resilience in its business operations amidst broader market challenges.

ALE PW – What’s News in Amsterdam – 14 January 2025 (Ahold Delhaize | Philips | InPost / Allegro)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | agrees to buy Delfood • Philips | another challenging year for Philips’ sales in China; software problem detected • InPost / Allegro | Temu close to taking over Allegro’s position as market leader in Poland

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Daily Brief Consumer: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, IndiQube Spaces Ltd, Guess? Inc, Pointerra Ltd, Sapporo Holdings, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A, Create Sd Holdings Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • IndiQube Spaces Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • GES: ICR Conference Notes: Focused on Winning LT: Reiterate Buy and $23 PT
  • US$2m contract extension underlines Pointerra3D benefit
  • The Good News Is that Companies May Change in Less than 17 Years!
  • AKA: ICR Conference Notes: A Holiday Winner; Raising Projections, Reiterate Buy
  • Create Sd Holdings Co (3148 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update


Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


IndiQube Spaces Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • IndiQube Spaces Ltd (1628202D IN) (ISL) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are ICICI and JM fin.
  • IndiQube Spaces Limited (ISL) is a managed workplace solutions provider offering technological workplace solutions.
  • According to CBRE Report, ISL is among the leading operators in Bengaluru as of Jun 24. 

GES: ICR Conference Notes: Focused on Winning LT: Reiterate Buy and $23 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for GUESS?
  • Inc. after meeting with management at the 2025 ICR Conference.
  • We believe management is highly focused on returning Guess?

US$2m contract extension underlines Pointerra3D benefit

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published a flash comment on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following the announcement that that it has been awarded a US$2.0m (A$3.2m) contract extension by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the existing programme modelling a range of electric grid resilience investment scenarios by electric utilities.
  • We view the contract extension, which brings total spend to date by the DOE to US$3.63m, as important validation of Pointerra3D’s benefit to the US electric utility sector.
  • The company says it expects the programme to be completed by 31 December 2025.

The Good News Is that Companies May Change in Less than 17 Years!

By Aki Matsumoto

  • After 17 years of failure to change, Sapporo’s policy change was triggered by the fact that sales in beer business were beginning to recover after the long tunnel of deflation.
  • Regulators, weighed down by the growing number of companies with low profitability and declining competitiveness, want to change the situation, even if it means leveraging the power of activist investors.
  • Many companies bottomed out due to exiting the deflationary economy, and TSE requests prohibit companies from ignoring investors’ proposals, which makes it easier for companies to change.

AKA: ICR Conference Notes: A Holiday Winner; Raising Projections, Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target and raising our projections for a.k.a. Brands after the company updated 4Q24 guidance, removed the interim title from CEO Ciaran Long, announced the expansion of Petal & Pup into all Nordstrom doors, and presented at the ICR Conference.
  • With the majority of the 4Q upside catalysts flowing into 2025, the company on track to launch their first New York City store in 1H25 and the potential for stabilization in the still significant Australian market, we believe our slightly raised 2025 projections remain conservative, and we reiterate or Buy rating and $30 price target for AKA.

Create Sd Holdings Co (3148 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY224.8bn (+8.4% YoY), with gross profit at JPY58.2bn (+7.9% YoY) and operating profit at JPY10.5bn (+6.2% YoY).
  • The company opened 23 drugstores and 15 in-store dispensing pharmacies, while closing two stores, enhancing operational capacity.
  • Environmental management initiatives included installing solar panels and starting operations at a new logistics center.

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Daily Brief Financials: Avjennings Ltd, Shimao Property Holdings, Yuexiu Property and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Jan-2025): NTT secures banks for $1B SG data centre REIT.
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28th November, AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a reputable home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a deed granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.
  • The AVID consortium, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share. Singapore’s SC Global (54.5% shareholder) was supportive.
  • In what appeared to be clean deal, Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) then acquired a 5.39% stake on the 23rd December. Now they’ve made their own NBIO at A$0.70/share

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Jan-2025): NTT secures banks for $1B SG data centre REIT.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • NTT obtains $1B for a Singapore data center REIT, supporting expansion and growth in the region.
  • Japan’s Open House acquires Bolder Presence in a $390M stake buy, increasing investment in the company.
  • Shimao lowers Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30% to attract more customers, adjusting to market demand.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Seazen Group, Vedanta Resources
  • In the US, the UST curve bear steepened slightly, amid a rise in oil price and a heavy pipeline of corporate bond issuances. The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 4.38%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.78%. Equities were mixed.
  • The S&P 500 rebounded 0.2% from last Friday’s selloff to close at 5,836. That said, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% to 19,088, driven by a decline in large tech stocks.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Fast Retailing (9983) Falling Fast: Reversal on the Horizon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing (9983) Falling Fast: Reversal on the Horizon
  • Northbound Flows (4Q2023): $20bn Outflows in 4Q


Fast Retailing (9983) Falling Fast: Reversal on the Horizon

By Nico Rosti

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has been falling for 2 weeks, despite recent revenues favorable numbers.
  • The stock appears short-term oversold, our models are signaling a high probability of WEEKLY reversal from the current levels.
  • Our models say a rally from current levels could reach between 49638 and 51936 (conservative targets). CHECK THE VIDEO PODCAST AT THE END OF THE INSIGHT (DETAILED ANALYSIS).

Northbound Flows (4Q2023): $20bn Outflows in 4Q

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the 4Q2023 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
  • We estimate that the outflows in 4Q2023 were US$20,921 million and holdings were US$302 billion.
  • We highlight flows for Moutai, Yangtze Power, Catl, Gree Electric Appliances, Sungrow Power Supply.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Activist Briefs | NAVF Back to Work After Trancom Windfall and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Activist Briefs | NAVF Back to Work After Trancom Windfall
  • Is Quantum Computing An Existential Threat To NVIDIA?
  • Ohayo Japan | Mixed Message Monday
  • Japan Morning Connection: Persistent US Tech Weakness, but off the Days Lows


Japan Activist Briefs | NAVF Back to Work After Trancom Windfall

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nippon Active Value Fund redeployed ~$30m from Trancom tender offer in November into existing holdings
  • Meisei Industrial offers solid fundamentals, undervalued multiples (3.9x EV/EBITDA, 1x P/B), and potential for shareholder-friendly actions.
  • Shinko Shoji buys back 10.36% of outstanding shares, following activist’s stake, and potentially paving the way for future buybacks.

Is Quantum Computing An Existential Threat To NVIDIA?

By William Keating

  • This is the claim made by an analyst covering IonQ after Jensen’s comments at CES 2025 last week, which tanked share prices of the top four QC proponents
  • The CEO’s of both D-Wave and IonQ responded rapidly with press releases refuting his claims and sharing updated, positive news wrt their financials
  • What exactly did he say that caused such a response, is he correct or is QC going to eat NVIDIA’s lunch? 

Ohayo Japan | Mixed Message Monday

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stock indexes were mixed on Monday as energy stocks rallied while Big Tech and retail faced headwinds
  • Yaskawa Electric has downgraded its full-year earnings guidance, citing weakening demand from the semiconductor industry
  • ITOCHU Corporation has invested in Protium Green Solutions, a UK-based green hydrogen production equipment provider

Japan Morning Connection: Persistent US Tech Weakness, but off the Days Lows

By Andrew Jackson

  • Market looking past new US semi restrictions with semi majors recovering off pre-market lows.
  • Earnings beat for KB Homes a shot in the arm for embattled Homebuilders… watch Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House for upside.
  • FA major Yaskawa numbers on Friday were a miss, but signs of a bottoming emerging.

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Daily Brief Credit: Vinhomes – New Issue Assessment – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vinhomes – New Issue Assessment – Lucror Analytics
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Vinhomes – New Issue Assessment – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

  • Vinhomes launched a roadshow last week to market its debut USD 144A/RegS five-year bullet notes.
  • The notes are expected to be rated B1 by Moody’s and BB- by Fitch, in line with the issuer rating.
  • The proceeds will be used mainly for debt refinancing and capex.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Logan Group, Vedanta Resources, Sunny Optical
  • In the US, the December 2024 nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly jumped to 256 k (165 k e / 212 k revised p), with November’s data adjusted downwards by 15 k. Average hourly earnings edged down to 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p) and 3.9% y-o-y (4.0% e / 4.0% p), while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% (4.2% e / 4.2% p).
  • Separately, the January 2025 (preliminary) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 73.2 (74.0 e / 74.0 p). The one-year inflation expectation among consumers soared to 3.3% (2.8% e / 2.8% p), the highest since May 2024 and above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Daily Brief ECM: Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Japan and South Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Japan and South Korea
  • Anthem Biosciences Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Dongbang Medical IPO Preview
  • Freetech Zhejiang Intelligent Technology Pre-IPO


Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Japan and South Korea

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at Japan & Korea after having looked at HK & India.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Anthem Biosciences Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise up to US$397m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JMF, Citi, JP Morgan and Nomura.
  • It is a Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
  • As a one-stop service provider, ABS serves a range of customers, including innovator-focused emerging biotech companies and large pharmaceutical organizations globally.

Dongbang Medical IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Dongbang Medical is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in February 2025. The IPO price range is from 9,000 won to 10,500 won. 
  • According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of the comps ranges from 191 billion won to 223 billion won.
  • Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices. 

Freetech Zhejiang Intelligent Technology Pre-IPO

By Nicholas Tan

  • Freetech Intelligent Systems (1901036D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • The firm is a leading intelligent driving solutions provider, covering advanced assistance system (ADAS) and autonomous driving system (ADS) technologies.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook
  • Destiny XYZ Is Destined to Crash
  • Block Inc (SQ) – Sunday, Oct 13, 2024
  • Vinfast (VFS US) – Direct-To-Consumer Taking Over
  • Muji Growing Fast but Not to ¥3 Trillion by 2030
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Jan-2025): TSMC ends PowerAIR Huawei partnership.
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.
  • Doosan Corp – NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations
  • BASE Inc (4477 JP): “Shopify of Japan” at 0.8x EV/Sales


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread
  • UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom
  • CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.
  • Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.
  • The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.

Destiny XYZ Is Destined to Crash

By Fern Wang

  • Market Euphoria and Investment Challenges: Trump’s re-election has fueled excitement in the stock market, especially for Elon Musk-linked companies, but investing in SpaceX remains difficult due to its private status.  
  • Proxy Stocks: Investors can access SpaceX indirectly through proxy stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB) or funds such as Destiny Tech100 Inc. (DXYZ) and the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX). 
  • Valuation Concerns on DXYZ: Despite DXYZ’s significant outperformance compared to other proxies, its rapidly expanded market cap/fair value multiple raises concerns about overvaluation and stock price sustainability.

Block Inc (SQ) – Sunday, Oct 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
  • Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
  • Company’s dedication to Bitcoin and its ecosystems driving future shareholder returns, despite being misunderstood due to its history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Vinfast (VFS US) – Direct-To-Consumer Taking Over

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Vinfast (VFS US) continues to progress in building out its EV brand, being the number one auto brand in Vietnam, and expanding into Indonesia, the Philippines, India, and the US.
  • A key trend for Vinfast (VFS US) has been the shift in sales to related GSM towards direct retail sales, which now make up around 80% of total EV sales.
  • Its strategies to showcase EVs through ride-hailing, leasing batteries, providing captive charging infrastructure, and guaranteed resale values are proving to be successful one, being rolled out across markets. 

Muji Growing Fast but Not to ¥3 Trillion by 2030

By Michael Causton

  • Ryohin Keikaku made a big splash in 2021 when it announced a sales target of ¥3 trillion by 2030, more than a six-fold increase. 
  • Following a reshuffling of management, targets have been slashed but growth rates still remain impressive with a near doubling of sales by 2030.
  • At home, the push into food is working and at last, overseas markets are getting the attention they deserve. The next Uniqlo?

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Jan-2025): TSMC ends PowerAIR Huawei partnership.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • TSMC ends partnership with PowerAIR in Singapore over Huawei worries, impacting supply chain in tech industry.
  • China retaliates against US with customs actions; CXMT starts manufacturing DDR5 chips, meeting demand for next-gen technology.
  • India plans display fabrication facility, offering growth potential but encountering challenges. Luxshare’s purchase of Wingtech ODM to enhance design capabilities, reduce reliance on Apple, and boost tech industry prowess.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.
  • Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.
  • UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.

Doosan Corp – NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

By Douglas Kim

  • Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.
  • Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. 
  • Considering Doosan Group’s repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. 

BASE Inc (4477 JP): “Shopify of Japan” at 0.8x EV/Sales

By Michael Fritzell

  • BASE Inc (4477 JP — US$234 million) is an e-commerce technology company based in Tokyo, Japan.

  • The software helps small merchants open stores online and manage their operations. BASE is often likened to “Shopify of Japan” due to similarities in their product offerings.

  • However, investors have become skeptical about BASE, with the stock now trading at just 0.8x EV/Sales — a massive discount to Shopify’s 13.3x.


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