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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP) – SAMR Approved, Trading Tight, Done Deal
  • WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield’s IPO Doc Now Out
  • GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote
  • US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies – Impact on Korean Competitors
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • LUNA Faces Nasdaq Delisting Amid Financial Restatement Delays and Strategic Review for Potential Sale
  • EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) – An Options Strategy for 2025


Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet

By Brian Freitas

  • The U.S. Department of Defense has designated Tencent (700 HK) as a Chinese Military Company. Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) shares were down nearly 8% overnight.
  • There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.
  • If added to the NS-CMIC list, Tencent (700 HK) will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) – SAMR Approved, Trading Tight, Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Overnight, we got news that the JIC Consortium Deal for Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) was approved 27Dec2024. That was the last approval required (other than TSE TOB Launch approval).
  • This is “on schedule” or slightly early from the previously-announced expected launch date.
  • This morning, the stock is up sharply and is trading <0.75% from terms. Expect an announcement within two weeks. Current arb annualised at high 6% is OK. One could hold.

WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield’s IPO Doc Now Out

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 17 November 2024, WH Group (288 HK)  announced an EGM to approve the spin-off and separately list subsidiary Smithfield Foods on the NYSE or NASDAQ. 
  • WHG, the world’s largest pork producer, announced on the 6th December the spin-off overwhelmingly gained shareholder approval. 
  • Yesterday, the Smithfield NASDAQ IPO doc was made public. As per the filing: “the number and dollar amount of Smithfield Shares to be offered and sold have not been determined“.

GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down

By David Blennerhassett

  • Quite a lot of new news to digest – GAPack (468 HK)‘s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer – in bold, red caps. 
  • But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
  • Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender – or not – and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn

By Brian Freitas

  • SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
  • Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
  • Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

By Arun George

  • The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
  • Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
  • I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.

US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies – Impact on Korean Competitors

By Douglas Kim

  • The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has added numerous Chinese companies including Tencent and CATL as companies that work with China’s military.
  • This is likely to negatively impact Tencent and CATL’s prices in the next several weeks but positively impact on some of the major Korean rechargeable battery and gaming stocks.
  • The higher probability scenario at this point is for Tencent and CATL to be officially included in the Chinese Military Industrial Complex list in the coming weeks. 

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


LUNA Faces Nasdaq Delisting Amid Financial Restatement Delays and Strategic Review for Potential Sale

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • LUNA stock faced a 57% decline due to Nasdaq delisting notice, with trading volume 25 times the average.
  • White Hat Capital Partners invested $50m in December 2023 and increased the loan facility to $30m in October 2024.
  • Luna Innovations specializes in fiber optic sensing solutions, with notable contracts in aerospace, automotive, and oil & gas industries.

EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) – An Options Strategy for 2025

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Insight presents two S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) options strategies for 2025. Call overwriting can generate premium income and potentially enhance returns in a choppy but mildly positive market.
  • The second strategy is a Risk Reversal, using the proceeds from a short call to buy a protective put option, providing downside protection while still allowing for some upside potential.
  • Both strategies are designed to align with the expected market conditions, considering factors such as inflation, economic growth, and market volatility.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun International
  • In the US, the final services PMI for December 2024 edged up to 56.8 (56.1 p), while the composite PMI rose to 55.4 (54.9 p). Separately in November, factory orders declined 0.4% (-0.3% e / 0.5% revised p), and the final durable goods orders fell 1.2% (-0.5% e / -1.1% p).
  • Long-end treasury yields climbed, with the UST curve bear-steepening after a weak auction of 3Y notes and amid a large supply of US corporate bond issuances.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (08-Jan-2025): CES 2025: Dell switches to AMD, hurting Intel.
  • DN Automotive NAV Valuation Analysis
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix’s HBM Win
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Some Thoughts About the Privatization
  • Amer Sports (AS) – Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024
  • Ryobi (5851) – Global Growth Opportunities from Auto Industry Transformation
  • Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
  • LE: 2025 Signposts; Expanding on Wins; Reiterate Buy, $20 Price Target
  • Mitsubishi Research Institute (3636 JP) – 6 January 2025


Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

By William Keating

  • Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
  • The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
  • Intel’s performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (08-Jan-2025): CES 2025: Dell switches to AMD, hurting Intel.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Dell’s switch to AMD processors for commercial PCs in CES 2025 poses a threat to Intel’s market dominance in the industry.
  • MediaTek and Nvidia’s collaboration to develop advanced supercomputer chips at CES 2025 promises enhanced performance and capabilities.
  • US DoD banning Tencent, CATL, and CXMT in response to escalating tech tensions, and Toyota’s inauguration pledge to Trump raising concerns.

DN Automotive NAV Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • According to our NAV valuation analysis, it suggests NAV per share of 25,624 won for DN Automotive which is 35% higher than current price.
  • We assumed DN Automotive’s estimated post IPO stake of DN Solutions (72.2% stake) would be worth about 4 trillion won. 
  • We used a very large holdco discount rate of 70%. DN Automotive is not a pure holdco company but a quasi holding company.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix’s HBM Win

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Latest TSMC Price Hike — Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
  • Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC’s Largest Customer in 2025E
  • SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings 

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Some Thoughts About the Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For Fosun, every major capital operation is the result of careful consideration after a long time. If it is a deal that Mr. Guo fully supports, there’s basically no problem.
  • For the privatization, the board of directors of Henlius has no special opposition. We think that this privatization would have no impact on the operation of Henlius in the future,
  • As the phenomenon of undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change, the Cancellation Price is attractive for most investors. There’re risks if choosing Share Alternative. Cash Alternative is preferred. 

Amer Sports (AS) – Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Amer Sports, owned by ANTA Sports, is focusing on expanding in the Chinese market, particularly through the Arc’teryx brand
  • New store openings in China are expected to drive revenue and EBIT growth for Amer Sports
  • Arc’teryx faces stiff competition in the outdoor apparel market, with its technical attributes not standing out as much as expected, despite surpassing Canada Goose in revenue and having a strong presence in China

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ryobi (5851) – Global Growth Opportunities from Auto Industry Transformation

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Ryobi is a leading Japanese manufacturer of die casts, predominantly serving the global auto industry, with an estimated top domestic share of about 20%.
  • As the transition out of internal combustion engines (ICE) and into battery electric-powered vehicles (BEV) gathers pace, Ryobi is well placed to capitalize on the demand for lightweight aluminum auto parts, including chassis, e-axle, and battery cases, door frame hinges, and many more parts.
  • Although meeting demand generated by this once-in-a -lifetime industrial transformation requires capital expenditures, the company is also focused on improving operating margins over the long term and enhancing shareholder returns, keen to raise its PBR to 1x.

Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Daiseki Co.’s cumulative Q3 sales decreased 6.7% YoY to JPY50.0bn, exceeding the forecast of JPY49.6bn.
  • DES’s sales declined 27.6% YoY, impacting consolidated operating profit, which decreased 6.8% YoY to JPY11.0bn.
  • FY02/25 forecasts revised upward: sales JPY66.0bn, operating profit JPY14.6bn, with OPM increasing by 0.7pp YoY.

LE: 2025 Signposts; Expanding on Wins; Reiterate Buy, $20 Price Target

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we look forward to 2025.
  • We believe, after an impressive return to profitability in FY24, Lands’ End management is poised to continue to build on their winning business model drivers (improved product, marketing and customer reach, Outfitters, international and licensing) to drive further upside into FY25 and amply demonstrate the power of Lands’ End to leverage a quintessential and trusted American brand to drive compelling returns.
  • As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

Mitsubishi Research Institute (3636 JP) – 6 January 2025

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Mitsubishi Research Institute (MRI) provides consulting services, as well as research and analysis, for the financial sector, government agencies, and the private sector.
  • Profitability is poised to expand through acquiring new clients, growing recurring business, and focusing on profitable projects by moving up the value chain towards upstream consulting within the current medium-term plan (FY9/24-FY9/26).
  • MRI aims to achieve 12% ROE by FY9/26 with such initiatives (7.5% FY9/24). Having a strong balance sheet with a net cash position, MRI plans to increase capital allocation to M&A, driving non-organic growth. 

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Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Chinese AI Startups Make Gains in Challenge to U.S.-based OpenAI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: Chinese AI Startups Make Gains in Challenge to U.S.-based OpenAI
  • IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery
  • CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Let the Quest Begin
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up
  • Monday Macro: Happy New Year
  • Food Prices Went Up Again in 2024 // Neutral Sentiment in Oil & Gas Industry


CX Daily: Chinese AI Startups Make Gains in Challenge to U.S.-based OpenAI

By Caixin Global

  • AI / Cover Story: Chinese AI startups make gains in challenge to U.S.-based OpenAI 
  • PMI /China’s services sector buoyed by stronger demand, Caixin PMI shows
  • Batteries /China to restrict exports of lithium battery technologies

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery

By Suhas Reddy

  • SGX IO Futures closed USD 0.35/ton lower for the week ending on 03/Jan. It traded in a range of USD 4.35/ton, which was smaller than the prior week.
  • For the week ending 03/Jan, China’s port iron ore stockpiles rose 0.2% WoW to 145.22 million tons, while daily imported ore pick-up volume fell 47k tons to 3.08 million tons.
  • FIIs hold a net long position of 130.6k lots across all futures and options expiries. Managed Money and Physical market participants are net short by 19.6k and 82.1k lots, respectively.

CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Let the Quest Begin

By Angus Mackintosh

  • We look at the major themes and challenges for listed tech stocks in Southeast Asia including Sea Ltd, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, Grab Holdings, Global Digital Niaga (BELI), and Bukalapak.
  • Profitability remains the key quest all in 2025, with only Sea Ltd achieving this in a true and sustainable manner, with Grab moving closer ahead of GoTo, BELI, and BUKA. 
  • Increasing take rates through seizing more of the value chain in logistics and advertising is another trend, with Fintech a core focus in shifting the needle on profitability and cross-selling

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) will increase production from 1.4 to 4.1 million tons annually in early CY25, placing it at 2.5x PE/0.3x EV-EBITDA FY26e (~100 USD/ton iron ore px assumption). 
  • On our estimates, if the company pays no dividend and capex is 60 mn AUD in both FY25 and FY26, net cash>market capitalization. (Conclusion: Board Pays Dividend)
  • We will look for the next quarterly production update for more color this month. Read our last update Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts 

Monday Macro: Happy New Year

By Adventurous Investor

  • I thought we’d start by looking at what moved the markets in 2024.
  • The table below, in the form of a heat map, looks at returns (sorted by 2024 YTD returns) for a bunch of major indices and asset classes.
  • The stand-out number for me is that of Bitcoin, up an astonishing 111%, with the NASDAQ Composite a long way behind on a price return (not including dividends) of ‘just’ 32%. 

Food Prices Went Up Again in 2024 // Neutral Sentiment in Oil & Gas Industry

By The Commodity Report

  • The FAO Food Price Index stood at 127.0 points in December 2024, down 0.6 points (0.5%) from its November level.

  • The index stood 8.0 points (6.7%) above its corresponding level one year ago, yet remained 33.2 points (20.7%) below the peak reached in March 2022.

  • While the news is dominated by sky-high cocoa and coffee prices, you can clearly see from the data that on the one hand, vegetable oil prices were a primary driver of higher food prices throughout the year. 


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Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
  • IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn

By Brian Freitas

  • SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
  • Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
  • Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery

By Suhas Reddy

  • SGX IO Futures closed USD 0.35/ton lower for the week ending on 03/Jan. It traded in a range of USD 4.35/ton, which was smaller than the prior week.
  • For the week ending 03/Jan, China’s port iron ore stockpiles rose 0.2% WoW to 145.22 million tons, while daily imported ore pick-up volume fell 47k tons to 3.08 million tons.
  • FIIs hold a net long position of 130.6k lots across all futures and options expiries. Managed Money and Physical market participants are net short by 19.6k and 82.1k lots, respectively.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) will increase production from 1.4 to 4.1 million tons annually in early CY25, placing it at 2.5x PE/0.3x EV-EBITDA FY26e (~100 USD/ton iron ore px assumption). 
  • On our estimates, if the company pays no dividend and capex is 60 mn AUD in both FY25 and FY26, net cash>market capitalization. (Conclusion: Board Pays Dividend)
  • We will look for the next quarterly production update for more color this month. Read our last update Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts 

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Daily Brief South Korea: DN Automotive and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • DN Automotive NAV Valuation Analysis


DN Automotive NAV Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • According to our NAV valuation analysis, it suggests NAV per share of 25,624 won for DN Automotive which is 35% higher than current price.
  • We assumed DN Automotive’s estimated post IPO stake of DN Solutions (72.2% stake) would be worth about 4 trillion won. 
  • We used a very large holdco discount rate of 70%. DN Automotive is not a pure holdco company but a quasi holding company.

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, WH Group, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, China Hongqiao, Central China Real Estate, GFT International and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet
  • WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield’s IPO Doc Now Out
  • GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote
  • US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies – Impact on Korean Competitors
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Some Thoughts About the Privatization
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Jan-2025): Asia Real Estate News 2025-01-06
  • Graftech International Ltd (EAF 9.875% Note @75 ) – Monday, Oct 7, 2024


Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet

By Brian Freitas

  • The U.S. Department of Defense has designated Tencent (700 HK) as a Chinese Military Company. Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) shares were down nearly 8% overnight.
  • There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.
  • If added to the NS-CMIC list, Tencent (700 HK) will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.

WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield’s IPO Doc Now Out

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 17 November 2024, WH Group (288 HK)  announced an EGM to approve the spin-off and separately list subsidiary Smithfield Foods on the NYSE or NASDAQ. 
  • WHG, the world’s largest pork producer, announced on the 6th December the spin-off overwhelmingly gained shareholder approval. 
  • Yesterday, the Smithfield NASDAQ IPO doc was made public. As per the filing: “the number and dollar amount of Smithfield Shares to be offered and sold have not been determined“.

GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down

By David Blennerhassett

  • Quite a lot of new news to digest – GAPack (468 HK)‘s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer – in bold, red caps. 
  • But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
  • Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender – or not – and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

By Arun George

  • The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
  • Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
  • I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.

US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies – Impact on Korean Competitors

By Douglas Kim

  • The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has added numerous Chinese companies including Tencent and CATL as companies that work with China’s military.
  • This is likely to negatively impact Tencent and CATL’s prices in the next several weeks but positively impact on some of the major Korean rechargeable battery and gaming stocks.
  • The higher probability scenario at this point is for Tencent and CATL to be officially included in the Chinese Military Industrial Complex list in the coming weeks. 

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Some Thoughts About the Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For Fosun, every major capital operation is the result of careful consideration after a long time. If it is a deal that Mr. Guo fully supports, there’s basically no problem.
  • For the privatization, the board of directors of Henlius has no special opposition. We think that this privatization would have no impact on the operation of Henlius in the future,
  • As the phenomenon of undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change, the Cancellation Price is attractive for most investors. There’re risks if choosing Share Alternative. Cash Alternative is preferred. 

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun International
  • In the US, the final services PMI for December 2024 edged up to 56.8 (56.1 p), while the composite PMI rose to 55.4 (54.9 p). Separately in November, factory orders declined 0.4% (-0.3% e / 0.5% revised p), and the final durable goods orders fell 1.2% (-0.5% e / -1.1% p).
  • Long-end treasury yields climbed, with the UST curve bear-steepening after a weak auction of 3Y notes and amid a large supply of US corporate bond issuances.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Jan-2025): Asia Real Estate News 2025-01-06

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • CPPIB is set to sell a China mall to Dajia Insurance for $163M, showcasing a significant real estate deal in Asia.
  • GDS announces rebranding of its international unit as DayOne, reflecting a strategic shift within the company.
  • Henderson Land plans expansion in Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, while Schroders markets Kowloon Complex floor after canceled auction. Singapore private home prices surge in Q4 with 3-5% growth predicted for 2025.

Graftech International Ltd (EAF 9.875% Note @75 ) – Monday, Oct 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • EAF’s 9.875% note due in 2028 is trading at around 75, offering a potential return of over 25% in a 2-year timeframe
  • Downside risk is protected with a cushion of under $550 million, while potential upside could reach up to 42% returns in just one year
  • Despite past issues and cyclical headwinds, EAF has valuable assets like the Seadrift facility to cover its debt stack, making the credit situation particularly interesting at current levels

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Luna Innovations , S&P 500 INDEX, Amer Sports , Lands’ End Inc, Telomir Pharmaceuticals, Cable One Inc, Guess? Inc, JAKKS Pacific and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales
  • LUNA Faces Nasdaq Delisting Amid Financial Restatement Delays and Strategic Review for Potential Sale
  • EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) – An Options Strategy for 2025
  • Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish
  • Amer Sports (AS) – Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024
  • LE: 2025 Signposts; Expanding on Wins; Reiterate Buy, $20 Price Target
  • TELO: Another Dose of Encouraging Tests
  • Cable One Inc (CABO) – Monday, Oct 7, 2024
  • GES: 2025 Signposts: Proving Nay Sayers Wrong; Reiterate Buy Rating, $23 PT
  • JAKK: 2025 Signposts; Building a Better Model; Reiterate Buy Rating and $40 PT


Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

By William Keating

  • Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
  • The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
  • Intel’s performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23. 

LUNA Faces Nasdaq Delisting Amid Financial Restatement Delays and Strategic Review for Potential Sale

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • LUNA stock faced a 57% decline due to Nasdaq delisting notice, with trading volume 25 times the average.
  • White Hat Capital Partners invested $50m in December 2023 and increased the loan facility to $30m in October 2024.
  • Luna Innovations specializes in fiber optic sensing solutions, with notable contracts in aerospace, automotive, and oil & gas industries.

EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) – An Options Strategy for 2025

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Insight presents two S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) options strategies for 2025. Call overwriting can generate premium income and potentially enhance returns in a choppy but mildly positive market.
  • The second strategy is a Risk Reversal, using the proceeds from a short call to buy a protective put option, providing downside protection while still allowing for some upside potential.
  • Both strategies are designed to align with the expected market conditions, considering factors such as inflation, economic growth, and market volatility.

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
  • We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
  • Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218

Amer Sports (AS) – Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Amer Sports, owned by ANTA Sports, is focusing on expanding in the Chinese market, particularly through the Arc’teryx brand
  • New store openings in China are expected to drive revenue and EBIT growth for Amer Sports
  • Arc’teryx faces stiff competition in the outdoor apparel market, with its technical attributes not standing out as much as expected, despite surpassing Canada Goose in revenue and having a strong presence in China

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


LE: 2025 Signposts; Expanding on Wins; Reiterate Buy, $20 Price Target

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we look forward to 2025.
  • We believe, after an impressive return to profitability in FY24, Lands’ End management is poised to continue to build on their winning business model drivers (improved product, marketing and customer reach, Outfitters, international and licensing) to drive further upside into FY25 and amply demonstrate the power of Lands’ End to leverage a quintessential and trusted American brand to drive compelling returns.
  • As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

TELO: Another Dose of Encouraging Tests

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Telomir Pharmaceuticals is a preclinical stage company focused on the science of lengthening telomere caps, which the company believes will extend human lifespans and improve quality of life as people age.
  • Preclinical tests showed that the company’s signature therapy, Telomir-1, appeared to correct a rare genetic condition that shortens life span, continuing a string of positive test announcements.

Cable One Inc (CABO) – Monday, Oct 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CABO’s stock has dropped by 45% since the previous writeup due to declining revenue and EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2022
  • Financial leverage and a large short interest have contributed to investor loss of confidence in CABO
  • The writer suggests that the decreased stock price presents a better investment opportunity in CABO now

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


GES: 2025 Signposts: Proving Nay Sayers Wrong; Reiterate Buy Rating, $23 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for Guess?
  • as we look forward to 2025.
  • We believe, after their first acquisition, continued European expansion and investor worries over weak domestic performance in 2024, 2025 will a year for the company to begin to leverage their prior investments and shift the investment thesis forward to top line and margin expansion.

JAKK: 2025 Signposts; Building a Better Model; Reiterate Buy Rating and $40 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific, as we believe, driven by strong Holiday movie content and among the easiest comparisons in recent history, the company is poised to register strong 1H25 results.
  • More importantly, we believe, potential China tariffs excluded, JAKKS is building a base of key core items/categories (i.e. The Simpsons, Sonic, skateboards and Spring outdoor products) and international expansion, which will create the ability for JAKKS to register visible and impressive overall top and bottom line returns.
  • Further, we also believe in 2025, given the company’s impressive financial position (no debt, approximately $2 per share in cash), JAKKS will begin to return capital to shareholders.

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Daily Brief India: Aye FInance Ltd, Fineotex Chemical and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Fineotex Chemical Limited (BSE: 533333) – Monday, Oct 7, 2024


Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Aye FInance Ltd (1239156D IN) (AFL) is looking to raise about US$171m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, JM Fin, Nuvama.
  • AFL is a non-banking financial company – middle layer (NBFC-ML) that focuses on providing loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across India.
  • According to CRISIL Report, AFL is recognized as the fastest-growing NBFC in India among its peers with YoY AUM growth between FY24 and FY23, achieving a growth rate of 64%.

Fineotex Chemical Limited (BSE: 533333) – Monday, Oct 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Fineotex Chemical is a small mid cap business in India with a $480 million enterprise value, listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange since 2011
  • The author predicts the stock to multiply 5x in the next decade and outperform the Sensex and NIFTY indices
  • Fineotex is a specialty chemical manufacturer with strong growth potential, increased production capacity, and a wide export network, positioning it for long-term success.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Japan: Shinko Electric Industries, Tokyo Metro, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Ryobi Ltd, Daiseki Co Ltd, Shimojima, p-ban.com , Ohba Co Ltd, Mitsubishi Research Institut and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP) – SAMR Approved, Trading Tight, Done Deal
  • Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life
  • Reducing Cross-Held Shares Is Precisely What Is Needed to Promote Management Change
  • Ryobi (5851) – Global Growth Opportunities from Auto Industry Transformation
  • Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
  • SHIMOJIMA (7482 JP) – December 25, 2024
  • Full Report: P-Ban.com Corp. (3559 JP) – December 18, 2024
  • Q1 Follow-Up: Ohba (9765 JP) – December 13, 2024
  • Mitsubishi Research Institute (3636 JP) – 6 January 2025


Shinko Electric (6967 JP) – SAMR Approved, Trading Tight, Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Overnight, we got news that the JIC Consortium Deal for Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) was approved 27Dec2024. That was the last approval required (other than TSE TOB Launch approval).
  • This is “on schedule” or slightly early from the previously-announced expected launch date.
  • This morning, the stock is up sharply and is trading <0.75% from terms. Expect an announcement within two weeks. Current arb annualised at high 6% is OK. One could hold.

Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life

By Sumeet Singh

  • 2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.
  • We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.
  • For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.

Reducing Cross-Held Shares Is Precisely What Is Needed to Promote Management Change

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem with cross-held shares is that management facing shareholders tends to be neglected if they remain protected by a defensive wall rather than a lower return on capital.
  • The start of mandatory disclosure of policy shareholding policies from FY3/2025 will also help reduce policy shareholdings, which are expected to decrease gradually, but may remain as deemed shareholdings.
  • To improve capital profitability, profit margins must increase, so restructuring the business portfolio and investing for growth are key. Management changes are required to implement these changes.

Ryobi (5851) – Global Growth Opportunities from Auto Industry Transformation

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Ryobi is a leading Japanese manufacturer of die casts, predominantly serving the global auto industry, with an estimated top domestic share of about 20%.
  • As the transition out of internal combustion engines (ICE) and into battery electric-powered vehicles (BEV) gathers pace, Ryobi is well placed to capitalize on the demand for lightweight aluminum auto parts, including chassis, e-axle, and battery cases, door frame hinges, and many more parts.
  • Although meeting demand generated by this once-in-a -lifetime industrial transformation requires capital expenditures, the company is also focused on improving operating margins over the long term and enhancing shareholder returns, keen to raise its PBR to 1x.

Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Daiseki Co.’s cumulative Q3 sales decreased 6.7% YoY to JPY50.0bn, exceeding the forecast of JPY49.6bn.
  • DES’s sales declined 27.6% YoY, impacting consolidated operating profit, which decreased 6.8% YoY to JPY11.0bn.
  • FY02/25 forecasts revised upward: sales JPY66.0bn, operating profit JPY14.6bn, with OPM increasing by 0.7pp YoY.

SHIMOJIMA (7482 JP) – December 25, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Founded over a century ago in 1920 as a wholesaler of packaging materials, SHIMOJIMA is a leading trading company specialized in providing comprehensive packaging materials, products and supplies, offering over 1,000,000 items, through its unique wholesale and retail omnichannel distribution structure.
  • The Company’s nationwide omnichannel distribution network includes 16 regional sales offices, 18 SHIMOJIMA stores, 20 directly managed Package Plaza stores, and roughly 220 Package Plaza FC stores nationwide, the largest chain of packaging supplies specialty stores in Japan, in addition to the EC site ‘SHIMOJIMA Online Shop,’ as well as sales by Group companies with the ultimate benefit of building an easily identifiable brand image.
  • SIR believes this will be a competitive advantage in capturing the upside opportunity from the four simultaneous growth drivers examined in this report.

Full Report: P-Ban.com Corp. (3559 JP) – December 18, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • For some time now, the manufacturing industry has been calling for digital transformation, and the printed circuit board (PCB) ordering platform that p-ban.com Corp. started when it was founded in 2002 has been recognized as an innovative service.
  • After its earnings temporarily declined due to a shortage of electronic components during the Covid-19 pandemic, the company established a new system and introduced new services to overcome that challenge.
  • In line with its new medium- term management plan, the company aims to generate strong growth, which can be called its second creation phase.

Q1 Follow-Up: Ohba (9765 JP) – December 13, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Share Price: OHBA‘s share price has generally remained flat at a little over JPY 1,000 for the past six months.
  • Its share price had risen linearly for a little over a year from JPY 645 at the beginning of 2023, thanks to the Company’s strong shareholder return policy announced in July 2023 targeting a 60% total shareholder return, as well as market recognition and understanding of the Company’s solid growth performance demonstrated by 13 consecutive fiscal years of operating profit growth through FY2024/5.
  • However, its share price has recently plateaued.

Mitsubishi Research Institute (3636 JP) – 6 January 2025

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Mitsubishi Research Institute (MRI) provides consulting services, as well as research and analysis, for the financial sector, government agencies, and the private sector.
  • Profitability is poised to expand through acquiring new clients, growing recurring business, and focusing on profitable projects by moving up the value chain towards upstream consulting within the current medium-term plan (FY9/24-FY9/26).
  • MRI aims to achieve 12% ROE by FY9/26 with such initiatives (7.5% FY9/24). Having a strong balance sheet with a net cash position, MRI plans to increase capital allocation to M&A, driving non-organic growth. 

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