Smartkarma Daily Briefs

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 27th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CCB, SMIC, Meituan, Guotai Junan Intl, CMB, Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BOC, Petrochina.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 27th): China Shenhua Energy, Bank Of Zhengzhou, Guolian Minsheng Securities

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 156 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.1% as of Jun 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, communication services and offset by information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua Energy, Bank Of Zhengzhou, Guolian Minsheng Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Jiangxi Copper, Cmoc.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za Online, Cspc Pharma, BOC, Petrochina

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 20th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za Online, Cspc Pharma, BOC, Petrochina.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): Bumrungrad Hospital, Scb X, Advanced Info Service, Ptt

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 27th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Scb X, Advanced Info Service, Ptt, Central Pattana, Cp Foods.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): Jinan Acetate Chemical, TSMC, Elite Material

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated holding was USD1,126.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,805mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Jinan Acetate Chemical, TSMC, Elite Material, Evergreen Marine, UMC, China Development Financial, Cathay Financial, Asustek Computer, Quanta Computer, Uni-President Enterprises.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): Hon Hai Precision, Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated short interest was USD26.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Ase Industrial, Elite Material, Wistron, Wiwynn.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): Sime Darby, Dialog, Gamuda, Mr D I Y

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated short interest is USD363m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sime Darby, Dialog, Gamuda, Mr D I Y Group M Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated holding was USD625.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD100mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief United States: Copper and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

By Sameer Taneja

Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.
The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term.
We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief China: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Saint Bella, HKBN Ltd, Hang Seng Index, China Construction Bank H, Anjoy Foods Group, Xiaomi Corp, FWD Group Holdings, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, Medtide and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach
FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion
HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, priced its upsized IPO at fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share.
The offer size adjustment option has been fully exercised. The company issued and allotted 14,313,000 additional offer shares.
Saint Bella sold 109,733,000 shares and raised net proceeds of ~HK$630M or ~$80M. The stock jumped ~49% on first day as a public company and peaked at HK$11.00 per share.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

By Nico Rosti

A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 – July 4.
US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), already listed in Shanghai, is offering 40 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD2.6 billion (USD335 million); Offer closes today, June 30th.
HK offer is priced at a decent discount to A share price and at valuation multiples that are aligned with its peer group and business fundamentals.
With limited organic growth and little evidence of a strategic pivot to higher-value offerings, Anjoy Foods lacks a compelling long term investment case.

Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach

By John Ley

Xiaomi surged to new all-time highs following its ecosystem launch and strong YU7 pre-order momentum.
We examine option market activity to assess what’s being priced and whether sentiment is getting ahead of itself.
Two option trade structures are outlined to reflect our findings.

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) fails to meet the minimum free float thresholds of both Global indices prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
The security is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2026 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
The security is likely to remain excluded from Global Standard even after the lock-up expiry due to insufficient float cap.

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.

Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update

Medtide raised HKD 514m (USD 65.5m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, June 30th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief ESG: Disclosure of Individual Board Directors’ Remuneration Has Not Progressed and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Disclosure of Individual Board Directors’ Remuneration Has Not Progressed

Disclosure of Individual Board Directors’ Remuneration Has Not Progressed

By Aki Matsumoto

It’s unclear whether voluntary compensation committee can make proactive recommendations, or whether it simply follows the proposals of CEO/BOD, and how much the decisions of the voluntary committee are influential.
Only 0.1% of listed companies are disclosing the individual compensation of all board directors, as investors have long requested, and there has been no progress in disclosing individual compensation.
Performance-Based compensation is implemented by 72.7% of companies listed on the Prime Market. Recently, there has been an increase in the introduction of restricted stock in place of stock options.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Make Fresh Highs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Make Fresh Highs
Japan Morning Connection: Tech Plateauing May See NKY Top Out for Last Day of the QTR
AI and Data-Driven Real Estate: PropTech Opportunities for Enhanced Efficiency and Valuation in Asia

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Make Fresh Highs

By Mark Chadwick

U.S. stocks closed at record highs Friday despite volatility sparked by President Trump’s abrupt termination of trade talks with Canada
Investors are waiting for Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls report, which could sway Federal Reserve policy.
Independent Franchise Partners (IFP), a British investment firm, increased its stake in Shiseido to 8.3%, up from 7.28%

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Plateauing May See NKY Top Out for Last Day of the QTR

By Andrew Jackson

US Homebuilders starting to show signs of life should help sentiment for Sumi Forestry and Sekisui.
Boeing move may already be priced in for Heavies but Momo still rules in Japan.
Softbank signaling buybacks to take a back seat over investments in ASI.

AI and Data-Driven Real Estate: PropTech Opportunities for Enhanced Efficiency and Valuation in Asia

By Jacob Cheng

In this research, we look at the latest landscape regarding application of PropTech in Asia, and evaluate which companies have an edge
PropTech is widely adopted in order to 1) enhance valuation process 2) improve efficiency to reduce costs and 3) green and sustainability buildings
Among all real estate companies in Asia, we think CapitaLand Investment (CLI) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) are leading in the application of PropTech

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Jun 30

Daily Brief India: Uco Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Uco Bank (UCO IN) and Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Industries, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
Disclosure of Individual Board Directors’ Remuneration Has Not Progressed

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Disclosure of Individual Board Directors’ Remuneration Has Not Progressed

By Aki Matsumoto

It’s unclear whether voluntary compensation committee can make proactive recommendations, or whether it simply follows the proposals of CEO/BOD, and how much the decisions of the voluntary committee are influential.
Only 0.1% of listed companies are disclosing the individual compensation of all board directors, as investors have long requested, and there has been no progress in disclosing individual compensation.
Performance-Based compensation is implemented by 72.7% of companies listed on the Prime Market. Recently, there has been an increase in the introduction of restricted stock in place of stock options.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief ECM: Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update
IFBH IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand, Clawback Triggered
Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) – About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook
Kanzhun HK Secondary Listing – Re-IPO but Needs to Correct or Offer a Wider Discount
ECM Weekly (30 June 2025) – FWD, Anjoy, IFBH, HDB Financials, Virgin, Xero, Shinhan, Innovent

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, priced its upsized IPO at fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share.
The offer size adjustment option has been fully exercised. The company issued and allotted 14,313,000 additional offer shares.
Saint Bella sold 109,733,000 shares and raised net proceeds of ~HK$630M or ~$80M. The stock jumped ~49% on first day as a public company and peaked at HK$11.00 per share.

Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), already listed in Shanghai, is offering 40 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD2.6 billion (USD335 million); Offer closes today, June 30th.
HK offer is priced at a decent discount to A share price and at valuation multiples that are aligned with its peer group and business fundamentals.
With limited organic growth and little evidence of a strategic pivot to higher-value offerings, Anjoy Foods lacks a compelling long term investment case.

Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update

Medtide raised HKD 514m (USD 65.5m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, June 30th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

IFBH IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand, Clawback Triggered

By Akshat Shah

IFBH (6603 HK) raised about US$148m in its HK IPO.
IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) – About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from “dependence on generic drugs” to “innovation-driven drugs”.
However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.
After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance.

Kanzhun HK Secondary Listing – Re-IPO but Needs to Correct or Offer a Wider Discount

By Sumeet Singh

Kanzhun (BZ US) plans to raise around US$300m via a public offering for its H-shares.
We have covered the company since its listing, links to our prior notes are below.
In this note, we’ll talk about the deal dynamics and structure.

ECM Weekly (30 June 2025) – FWD, Anjoy, IFBH, HDB Financials, Virgin, Xero, Shinhan, Innovent

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, in a busy listing week, the results from listing were mixed.
On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options
VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty