All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy, New World Development, Softbank Group
  • In the US, treasuries climbed slightly yesterday, amid a lack of macro news and as President Donald Trump held back from implementing tariffs on his first day in office. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 1Y UST declining 1 bp to 4.28%, while the 10Y fell 5 bps to 4.58%. Similarly, equities rose on the back of optimism that Mr Trump’s policies will boost US corporations.
  • This came after he unveiled a new investment push for artificial intelligence led by Softbank Group, Open AI and Oracle Corp (see comment below). The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 6,049, while the Nasdaq was up 0.6% at 19,757.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea
  • Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth
  • Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks
  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping
  • SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)
  • Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?
  • Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX): IPO Terms Set for Medical Device Company Aiding Insulin Patients
  • Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. (SION): Biotech for Patients with Cystic Fibrosis Filed for IPO


Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.  
  • New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date. 
  • Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs. 

Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal

By IPO Boutique

  • The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
  • It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
  • The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Vikran Engineering Limited (1635154D IN) (VEL) is planning to raise about US$119m through its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Vikran Engineering Limited (VEL) based in Mumbai, operates as an Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) firm, focusing on power, water, and railway infrastructure projects.
  • According to CRISIL Report, VEL has experienced fastest growth in profitability, with a 236.94% CAGR growth in PAT and a 130.02% CAGR growth in EBITDA between FY22 to FY24.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)

By IPO Boutique

  • SailPoint, a company that delivers solutions to enable comprehensive identity security for the enterprise, filed for an IPO. 
  • SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo who took the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
  • As of January 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, their ARR was $374.6 million, $520.1 million, and $681.8 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 44%, 39%, and 31%, respectively.

Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Beta Bionics, a high-growth medtech company and developer of an integrated bionics pancreas system called iLet, filed for an IPO in the United States.
  • Maker of insulin delivery device cleared by the FDA offers 7.5M shares at a price range between $14.00 and $16.00 per share.
  • With the most recent S-1/A, Beta Bionics plans to raise ~$122M at the high end of range at $16.00 per share, including a concurrent private placement.

Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX): IPO Terms Set for Medical Device Company Aiding Insulin Patients

By IPO Boutique

  • Beta Bionic, Inc. set terms for an IPO that could raise up to $120 million
  • The IPO is led by Bank of America Securities and is scheduled to debut on Thursday, 1/30.
  • The company’s product, iLet Bionic Pancreas, was approved by the FDA in May 2023 and posted $44.7 million in sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.  

Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. (SION): Biotech for Patients with Cystic Fibrosis Filed for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Biopharmaceutical company on a mission to revolutionize the current treatment paradigm for cystic fibrosis filed for IPO.
  • Company’s NBD1 stabilizers, are both in Phase 1 healthy volunteer trials in Australia to evaluate their PK profile, safety and tolerability.
  • RA Capital, TPG’s the Rise Fund, Atlas Venture, OrbiMed and Enavate Sciences are all among existing investors.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
  • GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
  • Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
  • Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
  • StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
  • [Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
  • Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
  • Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole


Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

By Travis Lundy

  • JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
  • It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
  • Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

By Arun George


GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

By David Blennerhassett


Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement

By Nico Rosti

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
  • Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
  • Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

By David Blennerhassett

  • The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
  • It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
  • In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high. 
  • Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.

Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus

By Sanghyun Park

  • HMM’s aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB’s BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.
  • HMM’s best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB’s PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.
  • The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

By Brian Freitas


Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

By Douglas Kim

  • The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
  • One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
  • In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: The Drill: Strap in for Trump and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Drill: Strap in for Trump
  • Reasons To Underweight China
  • Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004
  • CX Daily: Chinese Drugmakers Find Fertile, but Challenging Market in Indonesia
  • Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production


The Drill: Strap in for Trump

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.
  • While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.
  • Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

Reasons To Underweight China

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the  economy Is yet to bottom.
  • Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months  of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing. 
  • Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

By William Mann

  • Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
  • They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
  • Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


CX Daily: Chinese Drugmakers Find Fertile, but Challenging Market in Indonesia

By Caixin Global

  • Drugmakers / In Depth: Chinese drugmakers find fertile, but challenging market in Indonesia 
  • GDP /Chart of the Day: Over a dozen Chinese provinces set lower GDP targets
  • Metals /: LME approves Hong Kong as delivery hub in boost for China’s metal trade

Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Malaysia’s rubber imports clock 103,650 tons in Nov
  • SMR 20 secures lion’s share in rubber exports at 60.4%
  • Signs MoU with Thailand for sustainable rubber production  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings , SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – New Fleets and Finance
  • Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production


Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – New Fleets and Finance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings has announced that it will tie up with BYD (1211 HK) to source 50,000 EVs for its ride-hailing fleet, which will help to address car and driver shortages.
  • Drivers will be able to buy the vehicles at favourable prices, with competitive financing packages. Grab’s technology will be built-in to improve driver performance and provide data to improve services. 
  • Grab is also stepping up its efforts in insurance, winning general insurance licences in Singapore and Malaysia, allowing it to offer tailored insurance products to drivers initially but customers later.

Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Malaysia’s rubber imports clock 103,650 tons in Nov
  • SMR 20 secures lion’s share in rubber exports at 60.4%
  • Signs MoU with Thailand for sustainable rubber production  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: HMM Co., Ltd., Korea Zinc, LG CNS, Samsung Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus
  • Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole
  • Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea
  • HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Record High Revenue in 2024; Accelerated Growth Expected in 2025


Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus

By Sanghyun Park

  • HMM’s aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB’s BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.
  • HMM’s best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB’s PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.
  • The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.

Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

By Douglas Kim

  • The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
  • One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
  • In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.  
  • New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date. 
  • Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs. 

HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

By Douglas Kim

  • On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.
  • They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.
  • The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. 

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Record High Revenue in 2024; Accelerated Growth Expected in 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) reported 2024 revenue of KRW4.55T, up 23% YoY, ahead of guidance of 15–20%. Growth was driven by increased contribution from Plant 4 and milestone payment.
  • Ramp-Up at Plant 4 is expected to drive further revenue growth, while Plant 5, scheduled to begin operations in April 2025, will expand total production capacity to 784,000 liters. 
  • Samsung Biologics is well positioned to be resilient to the industry challenges. The company has guided for 20–25% YoY revenue growth to KRW5456–5684B in 2025.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Indonesia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Cisarua Mountain Dairy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

By Brian Freitas


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an impromptu analyst call to address concerns over a potential sugar tax and the free milk program, both of which have yet to materialise.
  • The company is making a marked push into general trade, armed with a broader range of affordable products including Yoghurt Sticks, UHT milk, and ready-to-eat sausages. 
  • Management remains confident about the outlook for 2025 with an ongoing recovery in dairy and an expansion into general trade, with a 10% increase in outlets covered. Top staples pick.  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: HDB Financial Services Ltd, Vikran Engineering Limited, Greenko Energy Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth
  • Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks
  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Vikran Engineering Limited (1635154D IN) (VEL) is planning to raise about US$119m through its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Vikran Engineering Limited (VEL) based in Mumbai, operates as an Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) firm, focusing on power, water, and railway infrastructure projects.
  • According to CRISIL Report, VEL has experienced fastest growth in profitability, with a 236.94% CAGR growth in PAT and a 130.02% CAGR growth in EBITDA between FY22 to FY24.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy, New World Development, Softbank Group
  • In the US, treasuries climbed slightly yesterday, amid a lack of macro news and as President Donald Trump held back from implementing tariffs on his first day in office. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 1Y UST declining 1 bp to 4.28%, while the 10Y fell 5 bps to 4.58%. Similarly, equities rose on the back of optimism that Mr Trump’s policies will boost US corporations.
  • This came after he unveiled a new investment push for artificial intelligence led by Softbank Group, Open AI and Oracle Corp (see comment below). The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 6,049, while the Nasdaq was up 0.6% at 19,757.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: Williams Sonoma, Venture Global LNG, Intel Corp, Crude Oil, Fifth Third Ban, PNC Financial Services Group, Occidental Petroleum, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings, First Citizens Bcshs Cl A, Bank Of New York Mellon and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
  • Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
  • Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?
  • The Drill: Strap in for Trump
  • Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers
  • PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers
  • [2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil
  • SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)
  • First Citizens BancShares Inc.: Expanding Global Fund Banking Segment To Foster Viable Growth In Niche Sector! – Major Drivers
  • Could BNY Mellon’s Pershing Platform Be the Key to Outsized Returns In 2025? – Major Drivers


[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.

Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal

By IPO Boutique

  • The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
  • It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
  • The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.

Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?

By Baptista Research

  • Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.
  • Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.
  • The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.
  • While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.
  • Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fifth Third Bancorp’s third-quarter 2024 earnings highlight a performance characterized by stability, strategic investments, and a focus on balanced growth in a dynamic economic environment.
  • The bank reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78 or $0.85 after excluding certain non-recurring items, outperforming previous guidance.
  • With a return on equity of 12.8%, Fifth Third has positioned itself as a leader among its peers.

PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PNC Financial Services Group, a major financial institution in the U.S., reported solid financial performance for Q4 2024 and for the entire fiscal year.
  • The company generated a net income of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, bringing the annual total to $6 billion, or $13.74 per share.
  • During the year, PNC benefited from fixed asset repricing, which substantially boosted its net interest income despite the lower demand for loans.

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

By Suhas Reddy

  • Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).
  • JPMorgan raised Occidental’s price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.
  • Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)

By IPO Boutique

  • SailPoint, a company that delivers solutions to enable comprehensive identity security for the enterprise, filed for an IPO. 
  • SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo who took the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
  • As of January 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, their ARR was $374.6 million, $520.1 million, and $681.8 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 44%, 39%, and 31%, respectively.

First Citizens BancShares Inc.: Expanding Global Fund Banking Segment To Foster Viable Growth In Niche Sector! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • First Citizens BancShares recently released its third-quarter 2024 earnings, highlighting both positive developments and challenges.
  • The adjusted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $45.87, supported by a resilient net interest margin despite declining accretion income.
  • Positively, the company reported stability and modest growth in its deposit base, especially within the commercial segment linked to the innovation economy.

Could BNY Mellon’s Pershing Platform Be the Key to Outsized Returns In 2025? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bank of New York Mellon’s (BNY) recent financial performance demonstrates notable achievements while also revealing areas that require attention.
  • In 2024, the company reported record-breaking revenue and net income, with revenue reaching $18.6 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, and net income climbing to $4.3 billion.
  • These figures correspond to a strong return on tangible common equity of 23%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Tencent and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
  • GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
  • Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
  • Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook


Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

By Arun George


GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

By David Blennerhassett


Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

By David Blennerhassett

  • The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
  • It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
  • In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent’s approved game. 

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
  • Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
  • Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars