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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China National Building Material, Copper and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February
  • CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote
  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): Publication of Buyback Offer Document
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

By Arun George

  • The IFA opines that the China National Building Material (3323 HK) share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.
  • The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
  • The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met. 

CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
  • The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM’s parent – the CNBM Parent Concert Group – to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.
  • Pre-Cons were satisfied on the 24th Jan. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down. 

China National Building Material (3323 HK): Publication of Buyback Offer Document

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK) published the H-share offer document and if everything is smooth, the payment will be made on 14 Mar 2025. 
  • Its two subsidiaries forecast poor profit/losses for FY24, suggesting a tough operating environment. The buyback valuation remains attractive relative to peer multiples.
  • For non-holders, at the current price of HK$3.59, we do not think the safety margin is good enough, assuming that most existing shareholders will accept and tender.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • This is a follow-up to our initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN): Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner, in which we provide some positive updates. 
  • The company guided a full-year copper production of 660-700k for FY25 (in line with expectations) and slightly higher gross YoY costs at the upper end (but better than street expectations).
  • The long-term production plan of 900,000 tons by 2027 puts it under 5x EV-EBITDA for FY27 at spot prices (vs. the current 7.8x).

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Jan 27
0

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Guotai Junan Securities , Samsung Electronics, China Longyuan Power, Japfa Ltd, Tencent, Kalyan Jewellers, Seven & I Holdings, China National Building Material, Areit (AyalaLand REIT) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
  • Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
  • Converting Samsung Life’s Samsung Electronics Stake to Long-Term Holdings: Clearing up the Confusion
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again
  • Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech
  • Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory
  • Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming
  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table

By Travis Lundy

  • In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
  • That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
  • What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas

Converting Samsung Life’s Samsung Electronics Stake to Long-Term Holdings: Clearing up the Confusion

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung Life needs FSC approval for a 10-year holding plan on its Samsung Electronics stake. Without it, the whole plan could fall apart, so it’s all about regulatory green lights.
  • If FSC approves Samsung Life’s long-term holding, they can’t sell those shares for at least 5 years—no exit strategy for the next half-decade due to regulatory rules.
  • Samsung Life will convert part of its stake into long-term holdings, signaling how future buybacks and special dividends will balance in Samsung Electronics’ next shareholder return program.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
  • The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
  • INFO TECH and FINANCIALS saw significant H outperformance vs As this week. Most others (other than perhaps MATERIALS) were limited in their volatility. No bias by premium tranche seen.  

Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Japfa Ltd (JAP SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Santosa family at S$0.62 per share, a 34.8% premium, to the undisturbed price of S$0.460.
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical share price ranges, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples.
  • The offer has not been declared final. However, the irrevocable, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership minimises the vote risk.  

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
  • The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a “let’s buy what US Persons cannot” moment.
  • No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.

Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory

By Nitin Mangal

  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN), one of the largest Indian jewellery player, has been under the limelight for various allegations and misconducts, including possibility of inventory overstatement.
  • In this insight, we try to look at the inventory from the forensic lens and uncover the disparity in accounting.
  • We also note that operating cash flows are boosted by movement in metal loans while company also has several RPT with promoters, especially on the purchases side. 

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming

By Arun George

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

By Arun George

  • The IFA opines that the China National Building Material (3323 HK) share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.
  • The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
  • The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met. 

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

By Brian Freitas

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Singamas Container Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Nidec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert
  • ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee
  • Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving

Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)‘s positive profit alert suggested a very solid performance for Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) in 4Q24. 
  • Annualising Singamas’ 1H24 earnings for the full year will mean a 78% profit surge in 2H24, but this is still conservative – CIMC’s 2H24 profit leaped 93x YoY.
  • Trading on 6x PER, versus CIMC’s 10.3x, the stock is cheap. Net cash equals 86% of market capitalisation, potentially providing a yield higher than the 8.8% currently projected.

ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

By Sumeet Singh

Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving

By Scott Foster

  • Outlook improving with rising demand for energy storage systems and near-line HDDs and water cooling modules for AI servers.
  • 3Q results point to FY sales above and profits in line with management’s guidance. Proceeding toward acquisition of Makino Milling next fiscal year.
  • At 17.5x projected earnings and 10x cash flow, the shares are at the bottom of their 10-year valuation range. Buy for the medium- to long term.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) – Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) – Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to disappointing performance in 24Q1-Q3, both revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 could face negative growth, but 2025 is expected to have positive growth.
  • As pharmaceutical distribution business can just maintain stable but medical device distribution business and retail pharmacies cannot contribute high growth, the overall performance of Sinopharm has lost growth momentum.
  • Due to longer payment cycles from hospitals and its business characteristics, Sinopharm is facing significant demands for working capital. Insufficient cash flow makes it difficult to increase the dividend rate.  

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Singamas Container Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Nidec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert
  • ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee
  • Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving

Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)‘s positive profit alert suggested a very solid performance for Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) in 4Q24. 
  • Annualising Singamas’ 1H24 earnings for the full year will mean a 78% profit surge in 2H24, but this is still conservative – CIMC’s 2H24 profit leaped 93x YoY.
  • Trading on 6x PER, versus CIMC’s 10.3x, the stock is cheap. Net cash equals 86% of market capitalisation, potentially providing a yield higher than the 8.8% currently projected.

ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

By Sumeet Singh

Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving

By Scott Foster

  • Outlook improving with rising demand for energy storage systems and near-line HDDs and water cooling modules for AI servers.
  • 3Q results point to FY sales above and profits in line with management’s guidance. Proceeding toward acquisition of Makino Milling next fiscal year.
  • At 17.5x projected earnings and 10x cash flow, the shares are at the bottom of their 10-year valuation range. Buy for the medium- to long term.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Fosun Tourism, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB
  • Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming

By Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

By Arun George

Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Declining components from MSCI indexes will lead to less inflows from active as well as passive funds, and less transmission from the sell-side to global investors.
  • Based on the assumption that the world’s top companies have grown in response to changes in the environment, Japanese companies may be relatively slow in making management decisions for growth.
  • As benchmark adopters reduce their investments in Japanese equities, investors adopting investment strategies that are less concerned with benchmarks will have a greater presence than ever before.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ROHM Co Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Apple , CompoSecure, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush
  • Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.
  • It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
  • Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off
  • SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

By Michael Allen

  • More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. 
  • The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn’t mean what most people think it means.
  • Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
  • Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
  • Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well

It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings

By Nico Rosti

  • Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
  • On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
  • Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.

Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

By Richard Howe

  • I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
  • The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
  • 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation. 

SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
  • Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.  
  • SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Financials: Guotai Junan Securities , Areit (AyalaLand REIT), SLB Development, IREDA, Bank Central Asia, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
  • SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer
  • Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher
  • EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

By Brian Freitas

SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
  • The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.  

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
  • There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
  • With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a solid finish to 2024, with strong loan growth across the board driven by  corporate and SMEs leading, whilst its CASA continued to grow, protecting NIMs.
  • The bank continue to cement its position as Indonesia’s leading transactional bank with +21% growth in 2024 to a record 36bn transactions, with its mobile banking leading the way. 
  • BCA continues to grow channels inclusing  branches and ATMS to supplement its mobile banking growth. Loan growth may slow slightly this year but BCA stands out from peers on funding.

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.

By Sankalp Singh

  • Monthly Options contracts experiencing large IV markups on account of India Budget event. IVs have traded up to 18.0%. YTD vol increase marks a significant shift in the Vol-regime.
  • Gamma offered & Vega bid – Weekly Options contracts relatively out-of-favour while Monthly & Quarterly contracts are being marked up.
  • Skew & Smile characteristics have compressed slightly. Vol term-structure continues to trade with “inverted-V” shape. 

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief ECM: Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Dongbang Medical reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 10,500 won. The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 910 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of Dongbang Medical is target price of 13,609 won per share which is 30% higher than the IPO price of 10,500 won.
  • Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo, Sumitomo Pharma, Fosun Pharma, SK Bioscience, Hugel

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo, Sumitomo Pharma, Fosun Pharma, SK Bioscience, Hugel

By Tina Banerjee

  • Daiichi Sankyo received FDA approval for Datroway for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic hormone receptor (HR) positive, HER2 negative breast cancer who have received prior endocrine-based therapy and chemotherapy.
  • Sumitomo Pharma partnered with J&J for co-promotion of the long-acting antipsychotic medication XEPLION. Shanghai Fosun Pharma’s proposed buyout of Shanghai Henlius Biotech for HK$5.4B (~$693M) failed to pass shareholders’ vote.
  • SK Bioscience signed a co-promotion and distribution agreement with Sanofi for RSV and hepatitis A vaccines. Hugel received approval for its botulinum toxin for five indications from the UAE.

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