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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Macro: US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties
  • A Preview of the Trump Fed
  • How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties

By Said Desaque

  • US equities have displayed remarkable resilience since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, notably without any promise of immediate help from the Fed via policy easing.
  • Although expected S&P500 EPS growth has been lowered for 2025, estimates for 2026 remain resolute, despite ongoing uncertainty about final tariff outcomes. Maintaining respectable productivity growth will be crucial.  
  • The arrival of tariffs complicates the future business strategies of firms due to varying degrees of market competition and the unknown response of consumers to price increases.

A Preview of the Trump Fed

By Cam Hui

  • The Fed remains on hold and in wait-and-see mode as it assesses the inflationary tariffs against the backdrop of a weakening labour market.
  • The market is discounting two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025 and a rapid pace of cuts in 2026.
  • Future Fed policy will depend on how the market perceives the new Fed Chair’s affects the Fed’s inflation fighting credibility.

How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

By Cam Hui

  • The current market environment is characterized by high market volatility, which has manifested itself as narrative volatility. 
  • We offer four ways to capitalize on the short-term volatility for traders. 
  • The suggested trades are the combination of identifiable underlying trends and technical breaks as signals for short-term profit.

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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher
  • Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
  • Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26
  • ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract
  • 2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.
  • SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
  • Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price
  • Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)  opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
  • The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
  • Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and  lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings. 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
  • UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
  • ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

By Rahul Jain

  • Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
  • Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
  • At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.
  • Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.
  • Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (>20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

By Michael Causton

  • The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.
  • It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.
  • ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.

2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions

By Andrei Zakharov

  • BILL Holdings shares have materially underperformed year-to-date and fell ~51%. Shares saw selling pressure post 2QFY25 earnings as results indicated weak outlook.
  • I see limited room for downside given current valuation of ~3x 2025E EV/Revenue (with ~13% growth) and recent acquisition of AvidXchange at a higher multiple.
  • I believe BILL’s current attractive valuation levels can be viewed as opportunity to unwind bearish positions and valuation looks more reasonable vs. peers, especially AvidXchange.

MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
  • Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
  • Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
  • 2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
  • Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).

Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • WSJ reported that Amazon and other major multinational in the US are actively considering on potentially issuing their own stablecoins. This could negatively impact card issuers such as Samsung Card. 
  • Once stablecoins are legally approved in South Korea and some of the major merchants in Korea start to use stablecoins, the current revenue streams of Samsung Card could get disrupted.
  • Although the exact levels of revenue disruption still remain uncertain, many investors do not like uncertainty which means that some investors could start to reduce their holdings on Samsung Card. 

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

By Rahul Jain

  • SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
  • Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
  • With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.

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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Cgn Mining, Samsung Heavy Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining
  • Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
  • Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
  • The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

By Rahul Jain

  • SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
  • Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
  • With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Australia: Santos Ltd, Pilbara Minerals, Paladin Energy, Mayne Pharma, S&P/ASX 200 and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m
  • Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
  • Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay
  • Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover
  • Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
  • With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
  • Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

By Brian Freitas

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

By Rahul Jain

  • Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
  • Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
  • At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.

Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay

By Arun George

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle 
  • The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share. 
  • Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

By Nico Rosti

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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Kioxia Holdings , BILL Holdings , Mediatek Inc, SK Hynix, Warner Music Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher
  • ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi
  • 2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.
  • SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.
  • Warner Music Group Is Fighting AI With the NO FAKES Act—Why It Could Change the Industry Forever!

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
  • Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
  • Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
  • UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
  • ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread

ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi

By Sumeet Singh

2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions

By Andrei Zakharov

  • BILL Holdings shares have materially underperformed year-to-date and fell ~51%. Shares saw selling pressure post 2QFY25 earnings as results indicated weak outlook.
  • I see limited room for downside given current valuation of ~3x 2025E EV/Revenue (with ~13% growth) and recent acquisition of AvidXchange at a higher multiple.
  • I believe BILL’s current attractive valuation levels can be viewed as opportunity to unwind bearish positions and valuation looks more reasonable vs. peers, especially AvidXchange.

MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
  • Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
  • Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
  • 2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
  • Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

By Patrick Liao

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
  • TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
  • There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.

Warner Music Group Is Fighting AI With the NO FAKES Act—Why It Could Change the Industry Forever!

By Baptista Research

  • Warner Music Group (WMG) reported its fiscal second-quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2025.
  • The company’s financial performance during this period was relatively stable, although it faced a variety of challenges impacting growth.
  • Total revenue increased by a modest 1%, with Recorded Music revenue also growing by 1% and Music Publishing revenue by 3%.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Wanguo International Mining, Santos Ltd, Pilbara Minerals, Paladin Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs
  • Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m
  • Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
  • Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
  • The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
  • With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
  • Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

By Brian Freitas

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

By Rahul Jain

  • Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
  • Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
  • At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle 
  • The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share. 
  • Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Financials: HKEX, Samsung Card Co, S&P/ASX 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HKEX (388 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
  • Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price
  • Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

HKEX (388 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on HKEX (388 HK), executed over the period from 9 to 13 June.
  • Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, for example a self-financing Diagonal Put Spread using weekly options, or a Diagonal Call Spread generating 3.9% upfront yield.
  • Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • WSJ reported that Amazon and other major multinational in the US are actively considering on potentially issuing their own stablecoins. This could negatively impact card issuers such as Samsung Card. 
  • Once stablecoins are legally approved in South Korea and some of the major merchants in Korea start to use stablecoins, the current revenue streams of Samsung Card could get disrupted.
  • Although the exact levels of revenue disruption still remain uncertain, many investors do not like uncertainty which means that some investors could start to reduce their holdings on Samsung Card. 

Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

By Nico Rosti

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Electronics, Samsung Card Co, SK Hynix, Samsung Heavy Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
  • Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price
  • SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
  • Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
  • Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
  • Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • WSJ reported that Amazon and other major multinational in the US are actively considering on potentially issuing their own stablecoins. This could negatively impact card issuers such as Samsung Card. 
  • Once stablecoins are legally approved in South Korea and some of the major merchants in Korea start to use stablecoins, the current revenue streams of Samsung Card could get disrupted.
  • Although the exact levels of revenue disruption still remain uncertain, many investors do not like uncertainty which means that some investors could start to reduce their holdings on Samsung Card. 

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
  • 2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
  • Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

By Rahul Jain

  • SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
  • Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
  • With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Mayne Pharma, Kitazato, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences , Bayzed Health Group, Inventurus Knowledge Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay
  • Kitazato (368A JP): Greenshoe Nudges It Closer to Global Index Inclusion, but Shortfall Remains
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Placement Good, A Long Term Bet for Sure
  • Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay

By Arun George

Kitazato (368A JP): Greenshoe Nudges It Closer to Global Index Inclusion, but Shortfall Remains

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Kitazato (368A JP) is forecasted to fail the market cap and float cap threshold of Global-F SmallCap even with the full exercise of the greenshoe.
  • Kitazato (368A JP) is expected to come close but miss the float cap threshold of Global-M SmallCap.
  • The full exercise of the greenshoe increases the probability of inclusion in Global-M SmallCap at the November 2025 review.

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Placement Good, A Long Term Bet for Sure

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) is placing 41M H shares for subscription at HK$25.35 per H Share.
  • Shanghai Junshi intends to use 70% of the net proceeds from the placement for innovative drug development and balance 30% for general corporate purposes such as replenishment of working capital.
  • Early green shoots in the form of lower R&D expenses and narrowing losses. Junshi offers for a good long-term bet as the company turning profitable will take some time.

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The positioning of Bayzed is just “a supplement to public hospitals system”, with limited scale and competitiveness, which is a point that investors may need to be aware of.
  • A big problem in the operation of Bayzed is the loss status/weak profitability. At current gross margin level, it would be difficult for Bayzed to deliver good returns for investors.
  • Valuation of Bayzed should be lower than Inkon Life Technology and Hygeia. The Pre-IPO valuation is not cheap, and the valuation upside potential may be limited considering weak profitability.  

Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

By Nicholas Tan

  • Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • It is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Pop Mart International Group L, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Abc Mart Inc, CaoCao Inc, Walmart and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
  • Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26
  • ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract
  • CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case
  • Walmart Raises Alarm on Tariffs: What Shoppers Need to Brace For!

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)  opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
  • The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
  • Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and  lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings. 

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.
  • Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.
  • Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (>20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

By Michael Causton

  • The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.
  • It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.
  • ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.

CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
  • In CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on low net take rates, unfavourable trends of key cost items, expected losses in the current year and a stretched balance sheet.

Walmart Raises Alarm on Tariffs: What Shoppers Need to Brace For!

By Baptista Research

  • Walmart reported a solid first quarter for fiscal 2026, with results exceeding analysts’ expectations and reflecting resilience amid a volatile economic environment.
  • The company posted adjusted earnings of 61 cents per share, surpassing the 58-cent consensus estimate, and saw revenue grow 2.5% year over year to $165.6 billion.
  • U.S. same-store sales rose 4.5%, outpacing the projected 3.9% increase.

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