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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks up on Jobs Data and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks up on Jobs Data
  • Japan Morning Connection: Meta’s $10bn Scale AI Investment to Buoy Sentiment for SPE

Ohayo Japan | Stocks up on Jobs Data

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rallied Friday after stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data eased slowdown fears
  • Fifty Japanese companies received activist proposals at June shareholder meetings, the highest number on record,
  • Takeda Pharmaceutical faces opposition from Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) against reappointing CEO

Japan Morning Connection: Meta’s $10bn Scale AI Investment to Buoy Sentiment for SPE

By Andrew Jackson

  • NFP beat sends yields higher, sending US homebuilders down, positive JP banks.
  • Big week for Renesas should also see more upside for Rohm and Fuji Elec with Auto/industrial inflection.
  • Capcom announced its latest Resident Evil installment at the SGF, but further upside looks limited.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Berli Jucker and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains one of the most interesting consumer plays in Thailand through Big C, glass and aluminium cans, and its consumer supply chain segment. 
  • The company booked a strong start to 2025 across all segments from a profit growth perspective, with package sales being impacted by lower raw material prices, but that improved margins.
  • 2Q has seen a slower start due to poor weather, slower tourism, partly due to the earthquake, but May has seen a turnaround, and management is confident in annual guidance

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Aurora World, Ecopro Co Ltd, HD Hyundai Mipo and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks
  • Clarifying the KOSDAQ Global Index and SSF Reshuffle
  • Friday’s Cap Reversion in the SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Sets up a Clean Flow Trade Opportunity

Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks

By Pranav Rao

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we look at an Asian toy manufacturer not named Pop Mart or Dream Int’l, the mashup between crypto and equity markets and the takeaways from tracking buybacks
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

Clarifying the KOSDAQ Global Index and SSF Reshuffle

By Sanghyun Park

  • KOSDAQ Global rebalances annually in June with unique, fundamentals-based screening, unlike cap-weighted peers. Its results are now a key lead indicator for upcoming SSF inclusion.
  • New SSF listings often trigger short-term volume spikes, especially in KOSDAQ names, leading to consistent spot outperformance from listing to expiry—most pronounced near the midpoint.
  • With more traders now tuned into the SSF pattern and fewer names rotating, early positioning and amplified price action are more likely this time around.

Friday’s Cap Reversion in the SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Sets up a Clean Flow Trade Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • Top 3 stays unchanged — HD KSOE beats HHI on consolidated sales, and index rules push HHI to the Plus side since a group sibling’s already in the Top 3.
  • Plus Universe also looks stable, but HD Hyundai Mipo’s weight drops from 14.12% to 10% Friday — triggering ~₩40B in passive outflows, a key flow trade setup.
  • ₩40B sell vs. ₩60–90B daily turnover, all hitting via one ETF desk (Shinhan SOL) Friday afternoon — flow size could move the tape. Should keep it on our radar.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range
  • Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism
  • Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…
  • BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge
  • Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals
  • Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks

By Pranav Rao

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we look at an Asian toy manufacturer not named Pop Mart or Dream Int’l, the mashup between crypto and equity markets and the takeaways from tracking buybacks
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
  • UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
  • ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

By Victor Galliano

  • Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
  • Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
  • We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains one of the most interesting consumer plays in Thailand through Big C, glass and aluminium cans, and its consumer supply chain segment. 
  • The company booked a strong start to 2025 across all segments from a profit growth perspective, with package sales being impacted by lower raw material prices, but that improved margins.
  • 2Q has seen a slower start due to poor weather, slower tourism, partly due to the earthquake, but May has seen a turnaround, and management is confident in annual guidance

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite some disgruntled investors, the privatisation of Tam Jai International (2217 HK) is appealing. If it is successful, payment will be made on or before 26 Aug. 
  • The proposed price of HK$1.58 equals a 24% premium to the peer CY25F PER. The poor reported peer results and earnings downgrades are the reasons for a narrower premium.
  • Since the announcement of privatisation, the sector has retreated by 7.8%, vs. a 5.2% gain in HSI, reflecting the industry’s tough operating environment. It remains wise to exit. 

BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge

By Rahul Jain

  • BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.
  • With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.
  • At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.

Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals

By Rahul Jain

  • Shyam Metalics reported robust FY25 results with 15% revenue growth and 21% EBITDA rise, driven by higher volumes and a shift toward value-added products.
  • The company is executing a ₹10,025 Cr capex plan to double capacity by FY27, targeting high-margin segments like stainless steel and aluminium foil with backward integration.
  • With zero net debt, strong cash flows, and a forward P/E of ~14×, Shyam Metalics offers a rare blend of growth, capital discipline, and low leverage in the steel sector.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) reported strong FY25 result, with 14% revenue growth and a massive 61% jump in net profit. EBITDA margin improved to 13.9% (FY24: 12.5%).
  • Overall margin expansion is mainly driven by AHLL (margin up 140bps YoY to 9.9%) and Apollo HealthCo (margin at 1.8% vs loss in FY24).
  • AHEL plans to add 4,300 beds over the next three to four years, with 2,000 beds expected to become operational in FY26.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp
  • [Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal
  • Fuji Corp (7605 JP): Usami Koyu’s JPY2,830 Tender Offer Is Light but Done
  • Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jun) – Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp, Tam Jai, PointsBet, Mayne
  • KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On
  • SSI Newsletter: New Portfolio Ideas, Guest Pitches, and Key Updates
  • Weekly Update (MEDXF, IDT, FTV)

Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp

By Arun George

[Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • The long-term major owner now chairman is getting out. The company was shopped. And bought. And this is the deal. ¥2,830 which is about 5.7x this year’s EBITDA.
  • It could have been done a bit better, but irrevocables are 48.5% out of the 50.01% minimum and other directors get this past the minimum hurdle. 
  • Transparency is lacking but it is an all-time high and you can’t do much about it.

Fuji Corp (7605 JP): Usami Koyu’s JPY2,830 Tender Offer Is Light but Done

By Arun George

  • Fuji Corp (7605 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Usami Koyu at JPY2,830, a 32.2% premium to the last close price.
  • Unusually for a Board recommended offer, the lower limit will not achieve a 66.67% ownership ratio. Based on past EGM voting ratios, it is set at a 50.01% ownership ratio.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, due to irrevocables, this is a done deal.

Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jun) – Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp, Tam Jai, PointsBet, Mayne

By Arun George

KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • We cover the multiple factors which led to the operational and financial mess at Pierer Mobility AG, the holding company of KTM.
  • This insight highlights the past not so great track record of Indian companies acquiring European businesses due to cultural, operational integration and higher restructuring costs.
  • Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) remains strong domestically, but KTM’s losses, debt, and integration hurdles risk compressing margins and return ratios at the consolidated level. We recommend Shorting Bajaj Auto.

SSI Newsletter: New Portfolio Ideas, Guest Pitches, and Key Updates

By Special Situation Investments

  • New portfolio ideas include Lutnick’s SPACs CEPO/CEPT with potential multibagger upside and MYX:AX’s merger arb with Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
  • Guest pitches highlight potential takeover of Webjet Group, Naturgy’s odd-lot tender offer, and Assura’s bidding war interest.
  • Updates cover LWAY’s board overhaul, LQDA’s patent lawsuit denial, RTACU’s unit separation, NZM’s strategic review, OCFT’s document delay, and PAC’s short report on ABL.

Weekly Update (MEDXF, IDT, FTV)

By Richard Howe

  • Fortive (FTV) will spin off 100% of Ralliant on June 28, 2025.

  • Ralliant will trade under the ticker RAL. When issued trading will begin on June 25th. Ralliant will host an investor day on June 10, 2025.

  • Ralliant (Precision Technologies) will be a $2.2B revenue company (2024) focused on Test & Measurement and Sensors & Safety Systems.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief China: Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd., Tam Jai International, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case
  • Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…
  • Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook
  • ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep
  • Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH), the world’s largest refrigeration and air-conditioning control component manufacturer, has filed its PHIP for a H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion.     
  • Sanhua’s market share in the global refrigeration and air-conditioning control component market was 45.5% in terms of revenue in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
  • The fundamentals are good, with the positives (refrigeration and aircon rising growth, stable margin, and cash generation) outweighing the negatives (automotive declining growth, US tariffs overhang). 

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite some disgruntled investors, the privatisation of Tam Jai International (2217 HK) is appealing. If it is successful, payment will be made on or before 26 Aug. 
  • The proposed price of HK$1.58 equals a 24% premium to the peer CY25F PER. The poor reported peer results and earnings downgrades are the reasons for a narrower premium.
  • Since the announcement of privatisation, the sector has retreated by 7.8%, vs. a 5.2% gain in HSI, reflecting the industry’s tough operating environment. It remains wise to exit. 

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Kelun Bio announced US$250 million placement, making it the largest follow-on offering in the biopharma industry in HK market over the past 12 months, but HK$331.8/share Placing Price is expensive.
  • SKB264 has demonstrated the ability to compete head-to-head with the world’s best therapies in TNBC and NSCLC. It is reasonable for Kelun Bio’s valuation to be higher than Akeso.
  • We recommend to buy when market value falls in the range of US$2.5-5.25 billion.If SKB264 fails to deliver good clinical data in future critical clinical trials, valuation would face pullback.

ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep

By Sumeet Singh

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

By Nicholas Tan

  • Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH) is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.
  • In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Mayne Pharma, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp
  • Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook
  • Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp

By Arun George

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Kelun Bio announced US$250 million placement, making it the largest follow-on offering in the biopharma industry in HK market over the past 12 months, but HK$331.8/share Placing Price is expensive.
  • SKB264 has demonstrated the ability to compete head-to-head with the world’s best therapies in TNBC and NSCLC. It is reasonable for Kelun Bio’s valuation to be higher than Akeso.
  • We recommend to buy when market value falls in the range of US$2.5-5.25 billion.If SKB264 fails to deliver good clinical data in future critical clinical trials, valuation would face pullback.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) reported strong FY25 result, with 14% revenue growth and a massive 61% jump in net profit. EBITDA margin improved to 13.9% (FY24: 12.5%).
  • Overall margin expansion is mainly driven by AHLL (margin up 140bps YoY to 9.9%) and Apollo HealthCo (margin at 1.8% vs loss in FY24).
  • AHEL plans to add 4,300 beds over the next three to four years, with 2,000 beds expected to become operational in FY26.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief India: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Bank Of Baroda, Bharat Dynamics Ltd, Bajaj Auto Ltd, Shyam Metalics and Energy, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine
  • Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB
  • BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge
  • KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On
  • Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals
  • Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
  • The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

By Victor Galliano

  • Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
  • Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
  • We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk

BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge

By Rahul Jain

  • BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.
  • With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.
  • At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.

KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • We cover the multiple factors which led to the operational and financial mess at Pierer Mobility AG, the holding company of KTM.
  • This insight highlights the past not so great track record of Indian companies acquiring European businesses due to cultural, operational integration and higher restructuring costs.
  • Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) remains strong domestically, but KTM’s losses, debt, and integration hurdles risk compressing margins and return ratios at the consolidated level. We recommend Shorting Bajaj Auto.

Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals

By Rahul Jain

  • Shyam Metalics reported robust FY25 results with 15% revenue growth and 21% EBITDA rise, driven by higher volumes and a shift toward value-added products.
  • The company is executing a ₹10,025 Cr capex plan to double capacity by FY27, targeting high-margin segments like stainless steel and aluminium foil with backward integration.
  • With zero net debt, strong cash flows, and a forward P/E of ~14×, Shyam Metalics offers a rare blend of growth, capital discipline, and low leverage in the steel sector.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) reported strong FY25 result, with 14% revenue growth and a massive 61% jump in net profit. EBITDA margin improved to 13.9% (FY24: 12.5%).
  • Overall margin expansion is mainly driven by AHLL (margin up 140bps YoY to 9.9%) and Apollo HealthCo (margin at 1.8% vs loss in FY24).
  • AHEL plans to add 4,300 beds over the next three to four years, with 2,000 beds expected to become operational in FY26.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief Macro: Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue
  • US Attracting Strong FDI Inflows at Europe’s Expense, While Wall Street Frets Over Withholding Tax
  • Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors
  • Real Asset Chartbook Week #10
  • Why “Sell America” Isn’t Equity Bearish
  • S&P 500: A Cresting Tide?

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
  • Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals
  • Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital

US Attracting Strong FDI Inflows at Europe’s Expense, While Wall Street Frets Over Withholding Tax

By Said Desaque

  • Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the US share of inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) has risen significantly at the expense of Europe. President Trump aims to attract even more FDI.
  • The America First Investment Strategy unveiled by the Trump administration seeks to bolster manufacturing investment via tax incentives as well as the creation of a sovereign wealth fund.
  • Foreign ownership of the Treasury and US equity markets are roughly the same size and significant and potentially a major source of turbulence due to geopolitics. 

Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.
  • The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.
  • Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #10

By Massif Capital Research

  • This week, we are interested in US NatGas. For the last few weeks, the NatGas Mismatch Indicator has been flashing red.
  • The mismatch indicator identifies positioning mismatches between the net number of individual speculative traders and their net speculative open interest.
  • These points frequently intersect with price inflection points and can be useful trading signals. 

Why “Sell America” Isn’t Equity Bearish

By Cam Hui

  • We have been fairly cautious in our U.S. equity outlook in these pages, but that doesn’t mean we are equity bearish.
  • We are embracing the “Sell America” trade because of a combination of deteriorating U.S. fiscal position and the trade war policy pivot that’s contributing to falling confidence in USD assets.
  • The key risk to our “Sell America” thesis is whether the U.S. can sustain its technology dominance in the next investment cycle.

S&P 500: A Cresting Tide?

By Cam Hui

  • The U.S. equity rally may be stalling as a frothy market encounters negative divergences.
  • It faces the combination of valuation pressures, challenging trade negotiations with China and early signs of economic weakness.
  • The last shoe to drop is price momentum, which may be in the process of rolling over.

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Jun 09
0

Daily Brief Japan: Fuji Corp, Toyota Industries, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal
  • Fuji Corp (7605 JP): Usami Koyu’s JPY2,830 Tender Offer Is Light but Done
  • Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jun) – Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp, Tam Jai, PointsBet, Mayne
  • A Reluctance to Confront Shareholders Is at the Root of Many Problems

[Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • The long-term major owner now chairman is getting out. The company was shopped. And bought. And this is the deal. ¥2,830 which is about 5.7x this year’s EBITDA.
  • It could have been done a bit better, but irrevocables are 48.5% out of the 50.01% minimum and other directors get this past the minimum hurdle. 
  • Transparency is lacking but it is an all-time high and you can’t do much about it.

Fuji Corp (7605 JP): Usami Koyu’s JPY2,830 Tender Offer Is Light but Done

By Arun George

  • Fuji Corp (7605 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Usami Koyu at JPY2,830, a 32.2% premium to the last close price.
  • Unusually for a Board recommended offer, the lower limit will not achieve a 66.67% ownership ratio. Based on past EGM voting ratios, it is set at a 50.01% ownership ratio.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, due to irrevocables, this is a done deal.

Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jun) – Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp, Tam Jai, PointsBet, Mayne

By Arun George

A Reluctance to Confront Shareholders Is at the Root of Many Problems

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Until now, listed companies have been reluctant to even lower the minimum shareholder purchase amount for reasons of economic rationality and administrative costs.
  • The same issues underlie reluctance of companies in lowering amount to purchase shares, online AGMs, electronic delivery of text in notice of convocations, and pre-AGM disclosure of annual securities reports.
  • Companies have been focused on controlling AGM rather than facing shareholders to increase their interests. This practice is problem that can lead to slower ROE and excessive cash on hand.

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