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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?
  • Ohayo Japan | Markets Watchful
  • How Trump’s tariffs threaten Ireland’s pharma fortune
  • Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/1211 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/Macro
  • Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Lower, but Seagate IR Day a Big Success
  • Indian Hotel Industry: A Comparative Analysis of Top Hotel Chains
  • #151 India Insight: Defence Exports up 34x, Seafood at $7.2B, Coal India Plans 2 IPOs
  • AC & Cooling Product Market Slowdown in India: What Top Players Are Saying?
  • Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent


Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Indian equities have delivered envious returns and consistently rewarded shareholders, showcasing superior per share earnings growth and a high number of firms with strong Return on Equity.  
  • While GDP grows robustly (projected 6.3% FY25, 6.4% 2026), earnings growth, robust household consumption (7.1% CAGR over 34 years), and increasing investments are key drivers.  
  • The FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential 12-15% Nifty returns driven by tailwinds, but current valuations and global risks necessitate a careful approach.

Ohayo Japan | Markets Watchful

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 ended near flat, down 0.04% to 5,842, as investors weighed fears of rising rates and a growing US deficit.
  • Japanese listed companies anticipate a 7% decline in total net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2026, marking the first fall in six years
  • Foreign visitors to Japan surged 28.5% year-on-year in April, reaching a record 3.91 million, fueled by the cherry blossom season and Easter holidays, and a weak yen.

How Trump’s tariffs threaten Ireland’s pharma fortune

By Behind the Money

  • Westport in County Meal, Ireland is a lively town with traditional pubs and a scenic backdrop of Croagh Patrick mountain.
  • The town benefits from American pharmaceutical companies like Allergan manufacturing products such as Botox, thanks to Ireland’s low corporate tax rates.
  • However, President Trump’s desire to bring back manufacturing to the US poses a threat to Ireland’s economy and its relationship with multinational companies.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.
  • Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.
  • Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/1211 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/Macro

By Eric Wen

  • LI US/1211 HK/XPEV US: NEV Weekly Sales Ranking (May 12-18, 2025) (+/+/-)
  • 1211 HK: Denza and Formula Leopard Units Merged Back into Parent Company (+)
  • 1810 HK : Xuanjie O1 Chip Enters Mass Production (+)

Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Lower, but Seagate IR Day a Big Success

By Andrew Jackson

  • Watch for upside in names involved in HAMR drives such as TDK after positive comments from Seagate.
  • Rohm finally starting to get bucketed as an AI name could see significant upside after deep correction.
  • Quantum names continuing to surge with huge moves in IonQ and D-Wave sets positive tone for Socionext still.

Indian Hotel Industry: A Comparative Analysis of Top Hotel Chains

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Mid-Market players SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) and Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd (LEMONTRE IN) led FY18-24 revenue and EBITDA growth with 16%/31% and 14%/25% CAGRs respectively, reflecting aggressive expansion. 
  • FY24 saw strong average occupancy of 72% with rising RevPAR across luxury (high ARR) and mid-scale (volume) segments. 
  • Indian Hotels (IH IN) and Lemon Tree lead the pipeline with 74% and 59% key growth, driven by asset-light strategies for faster scale-up.

#151 India Insight: Defence Exports up 34x, Seafood at $7.2B, Coal India Plans 2 IPOs

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s defense exports grew 34-fold in 11 years, aiming for Rs 30,000 crore in FY26, supported by policy reforms.
  • India is now the fourth-largest exporter of marine products, with exports rising to 16.85 LMT and valued at $7.2 billion.
  • Coal India Ltd (COAL IN) begins process to list BCCL and CMPDI subsidiaries, will file DRHP with Sebi soon, IPO timing dependent on market.

AC & Cooling Product Market Slowdown in India: What Top Players Are Saying?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Secondary sales in the cooling market slowed recently, impacted by delayed summer onset and unseasonal rains across parts of the country.  
  • The secondary sales slowdown, tied to weather unpredictability, could impact immediate growth but does not reflect fundamental shifts in demand. 
  • While short-term weather challenges have created inventory delays, the cooling sector’s fundamentals remain strong, with long-term growth drivers like low penetration and GDP growth continuing to support industry expansion.

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

By Rahul Jain

  • Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.
  • Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.
  • Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint & lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.

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Daily Brief Japan: GMO Internet, Welcia Holdings, Japan Post Holdings, Sanyo Trading, Trial Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote
  • Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot…
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Steady Delivery with Sustainability Emerging as a Key Driver
  • Trial: Soon to Be Japan’s Largest Supermarket
  • Without a Disciplined Cash Allocation in a Company, Share Repurchases Are Welcome to Investors


GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

By Travis Lundy

  • GMO Internet (4784 JP) was created by the reverse takeover of a listed cad/media company by its parent company’s “internet infrastructure” business. GMO Internet Group ended up with ~98%.
  • In the process, the stock rose 500%. Now, as part of its promise to the TSE allowing TSE Prime membership for the extraordinarily low-float target, the parent is offering shares.
  • The squeeze has it at 180x Dec25e EPS, 111x EBIT, 70x book. The offering likely gets pulled and the stock isn’t shortable… so what next? Pain, and an ECLWO.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) AGMs to elect directors and approve the share exchange agreement to merge the two. 
  • 10% Tsuruha shareholder Orbis objects to the merger ratio AND the later tender whereby Aeon goes to 51%, saying everything is underpriced. ISS/GlassLewis recommend voting against the merger.
  • I haven’t seen the proxy reports but I’ve done the math. Investors/arbs should look at the possibilities/probabilities and understand what dependencies exist. Shareholders are not helpless, no matter the outcome.

Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot…

By Rikki Malik

  • Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?
  • While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.
  • With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Steady Delivery with Sustainability Emerging as a Key Driver

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY9/25 results met expectations, with the company’s diversified operations helping offset softness in Industrial Products and Life Science.
  • A key positive was the acceleration of growth in Sustainability, driven by green technology and energy solutions, which reinforces its potential as a core earnings driver.
  • Fine Chemicals remained resilient, backed by domestic demand for industrial rubber. 

Trial: Soon to Be Japan’s Largest Supermarket

By Michael Causton

  • As confirmed last month, Trial will acquire Seiyu later this year, giving it access to 240 more stores to add to almost 350 already in operation.
  • The prospect of combining Trial’s undeniable knowhow in retail tech and its laser-focused concern with reducing costs could cause rivals serious problems.
  • Despite the obvious benefits, Trial’s share price has fallen to around the same it was a year ago largely due to concerns over OPM but profitability will improve fast.

Without a Disciplined Cash Allocation in a Company, Share Repurchases Are Welcome to Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since most Japanese companies at this point have more cash on hand than they need, it is only natural that they will step up shareholder returns, including share buybacks.
  • The reason why many companies have more cash on hand than necessary due to lack of investment for growth is because they do not have a disciplined cash allocation.
  • If the company does not have a disciplined cash allocation, share repurchases that lead to allocations to the most effective investments at the investor’s discretion are welcome to the investor.

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Daily Brief ECM: GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut
  • HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged, Overhang Easing but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • Schloss Bangalore IPO – Growth Has Softened; Corporate Structure Reorganised
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey
  • Paradigm REIT IPO – Stable Retail Base Facing Near-Term Lease Risks
  • Eco-Shop IPO Trading: Tepid Retail Demand but at a Discount to 99 Speedmart
  • Mirxes IPO Trading Update
  • MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – Marketing IPO Meets Investor Eye; Jumps 65% on Day One
  • Hinge Health (HNGE): VC Backed Virtual Therapy Provider IPO Pops 22% at Opening Print


GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

By Travis Lundy

  • GMO Internet (4784 JP) was created by the reverse takeover of a listed cad/media company by its parent company’s “internet infrastructure” business. GMO Internet Group ended up with ~98%.
  • In the process, the stock rose 500%. Now, as part of its promise to the TSE allowing TSE Prime membership for the extraordinarily low-float target, the parent is offering shares.
  • The squeeze has it at 180x Dec25e EPS, 111x EBIT, 70x book. The offering likely gets pulled and the stock isn’t shortable… so what next? Pain, and an ECLWO.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) priced its H Share at HK$44.05 to raise HK$9,890.1 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The timing of the H Share listing is fortuitous, as the peers have materially re-rated since the prospectus was released on 15 May.
  • Hengrui had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged, Overhang Easing but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$410m via selling some of its stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS).
  • KKR had come out of its IPO linked lockup in Nov 2024 and had  tried to launch a deal in Dec 2024 and finally undertook a deal in Feb 2025.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework

Schloss Bangalore IPO – Growth Has Softened; Corporate Structure Reorganised

By Akshat Shah

  • Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
  • It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey

By Sumeet Singh

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) (JHP, 600276 CH ), a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
  • JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about trading dynamics.

Paradigm REIT IPO – Stable Retail Base Facing Near-Term Lease Risks

By Troy Wong

  • Paradigm REIT (PR) is looking to raise about US$131m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by Maybank, AmInvestment Bank, and CGS International.
  • PR offers stable exposure to well-located retail assets with high occupancy and steady rental growth.
  • While lease expiry risks and tenant concentration are concerns, current valuation at 17.4x FY25E P/E and 5.7% yield appears fair, given its higher occupancy and lower gearing than peers.

Eco-Shop IPO Trading: Tepid Retail Demand but at a Discount to 99 Speedmart

By Nicholas Tan

  • Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY) raised around US$227m in its Malaysia IPO, after pricing the deal at the bottom of the range at M$1.13/share.
  • It is the largest dollar chain in Malaysia, as per the number of stores it operates, as of 31 October 2024.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics. 

Mirxes IPO Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Mirxes raised HKD 1086m (USD 140m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, May 23rd.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s core gastric cancer early detection products and brief analysis of its valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut. The free float shares are highly concentrated.

MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – Marketing IPO Meets Investor Eye; Jumps 65% on Day One

By IPO Boutique

  • MNTN priced a full-size deal of 11.7mm shares at the high-end of the range, $16.00, and opened at $21.00 for a gain of 31.3% at first trade. 
  • The fireworks continued as the stock traded to a high of $26.88 before closing its opening session at $26.36 for a first day return of 65%.
  • The deal was considered multiple-times oversubscribed and our sources stated that the final deal finished north of 12-times oversubscribed.

Hinge Health (HNGE): VC Backed Virtual Therapy Provider IPO Pops 22% at Opening Print

By IPO Boutique

  • Hinge Health priced a full-size deal of 13.666mm shares at the high-end of the range, $32.00 and opened for trading at $39.25 for a gain of 21.9% at first trade.
  • According to our sources, the deal finished north of 15-times oversubscribed.  We are told that the deal was made more “exclusive” with one-third of the book being completely shut-out.
  • Another virtual healthcare provider, Omada Health, recently filed for its IPO. If the valuation of Omada Health is more aggressive, it could provide a boost to Hinge Health’s price.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Samsung Biologics , Mirxes Holding, OSE Immuno, Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdi, MetaVia, Hinge Health, Stryker Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut
  • Clearing Confusion on Samsung C&T’s Forced Holding Co Conversion: Key Trade Angle in Biologics Split
  • Samsung Biologics: Creation of a Holding Company to Split CDMO and Biosimilar Businesses
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey
  • Mirxes IPO Trading Update
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics — Strategic collaboration in mRNA technologies
  • RVPH: 1Q:25 Results
  • MTVA: Additional Positive Topline Results for DA-1726 in Phase 1 MAD Study
  • Hinge Health (HNGE): VC Backed Virtual Therapy Provider IPO Pops 22% at Opening Print
  • Stryker Corporation: Is Its Tuck-in Acquisition Strategy to Ensure Market Leadership In The Med-Tech Landscape?


Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) priced its H Share at HK$44.05 to raise HK$9,890.1 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The timing of the H Share listing is fortuitous, as the peers have materially re-rated since the prospectus was released on 15 May.
  • Hengrui had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

Clearing Confusion on Samsung C&T’s Forced Holding Co Conversion: Key Trade Angle in Biologics Split

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung C&T’s holding ratio mainly hinges on its Samsung Biologics stake; Samsung Electronics’ 5% isn’t counted, and Samsung SDS is excluded since Samsung Electronics is its largest shareholder.
  • This ties to calls for Samsung’s governance overhaul, aiming for C&T to avoid forced conversion while boosting control over Samsung Electronics via bold, more aggressive moves than expected.
  • Samsung C&T will likely sell some Biologics shares around its in-kind contribution to Epis, timing sales based on post-listing price action.

Samsung Biologics: Creation of a Holding Company to Split CDMO and Biosimilar Businesses

By Douglas Kim

  • On 22 May, Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) announced that that it plans to establish a new holding company called Samsung Bioepis Holdings through a spin-off.
  • Samsung Bioepis Holdings will fully incorporate Samsung Bioepis as a wholly owned subsidiary. Samsung Bioepis will focus on the biosimilars business. Samsung Biologics will focus on the CDMO business. 
  • There is likely to be mixed reactions to Samsung Biologics’ announcement to create a holding company structure to split the CDMO and biosimilar businesses.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey

By Sumeet Singh

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) (JHP, 600276 CH ), a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
  • JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about trading dynamics.

Mirxes IPO Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Mirxes raised HKD 1086m (USD 140m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, May 23rd.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s core gastric cancer early detection products and brief analysis of its valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut. The free float shares are highly concentrated.

OSE Immunotherapeutics — Strategic collaboration in mRNA technologies

By Edison Investment Research

OSE Immunotherapeutics has announced a new strategic collaboration with Inside Therapeutics and MiNT Laboratory (University of Angers) to develop mRNA therapies and accelerate nanodrug development. OSE has received €1.3m in non-dilutive funding to lead the 36-month programme, titled ‘HexARN’, from Bpifrance (a French public sector investment bank) as part of the ‘France 2030’ investment plan. We note that OSE has previously received similar funding as part of this initiative for other projects. Since there is no immediate read-across to near-term catalysts or OSE’s clinical-stage programmes, we do not plan to make any adjustments to our estimates. However, the collaboration is consistent with the company’s approach of leveraging academic and industrial partnerships to expand its long-term optionality, in our view, and we believe the funding serves as encouraging external recognition of OSE’s R&D capabilities.


RVPH: 1Q:25 Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
  • The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
  • Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine completed its 1st Phase III trial & is set to begin its 2nd in 2025.

MTVA: Additional Positive Topline Results for DA-1726 in Phase 1 MAD Study

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On May 14, 2025, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) announced financial results for the first quarter and provided a business update.
  • The company recently announced positive topline results from the Phase 1 MAD trial of DA-1726 in obesity that showed statistically significant weight loss and potential best-in-class results for glucose control, waist reduction, and tolerability.
  • MetaVia will be adding additional cohorts to the study to determine a maximum tolerated dose.

Hinge Health (HNGE): VC Backed Virtual Therapy Provider IPO Pops 22% at Opening Print

By IPO Boutique

  • Hinge Health priced a full-size deal of 13.666mm shares at the high-end of the range, $32.00 and opened for trading at $39.25 for a gain of 21.9% at first trade.
  • According to our sources, the deal finished north of 15-times oversubscribed.  We are told that the deal was made more “exclusive” with one-third of the book being completely shut-out.
  • Another virtual healthcare provider, Omada Health, recently filed for its IPO. If the valuation of Omada Health is more aggressive, it could provide a boost to Hinge Health’s price.

Stryker Corporation: Is Its Tuck-in Acquisition Strategy to Ensure Market Leadership In The Med-Tech Landscape?

By Baptista Research

  • Stryker Corporation reported a strong first quarter, reflecting continued robust demand and effective commercial execution across its diverse product portfolio.
  • The company’s financial outcomes underscore balanced growth and strategic maneuvering, driven by both organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
  • Stryker demonstrated vigorous organic sales growth at 10.1% year-over-year, notably achieving double-digit growth in its MedSurg and Neurotechnology divisions.

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Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Soundwill Holdings, Pony AI, Alibaba Group Holding , NetEase Inc, mF International and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?
  • Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey
  • [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?
  • [NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$136) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Game Upcycle + Margin Leverage
  • MFI: Initiating Coverage of a Differentiated Fintech Trading Platform


CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning

By David Blennerhassett

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
  • Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
  • It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL’s H shares the day before shares were listed.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) priced its H Share at HK$44.05 to raise HK$9,890.1 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The timing of the H Share listing is fortuitous, as the peers have materially re-rated since the prospectus was released on 15 May.
  • Hengrui had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

By Arun George

  • The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.

Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey

By Sumeet Singh

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) (JHP, 600276 CH ), a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
  • JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about trading dynamics.

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?

By Ying Pan

  • Alibaba (BABA) reported C1Q25 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus. Taobao/Tmall (T/T) outperformed while Cainiao and Int’l commerce underperformed. 
  • Stabilization of domestic e-commerce is a major positive. However, on-demand e-commerce at home and video e-commerce abroad are two global growth drivers, 
  • We see new challenges emerging following business stabilization. We believe the management is up to the task. We keep BABA in our TOP BUY list and reiterate rating and TP.

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$136) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Game Upcycle + Margin Leverage

By Ying Pan

  • NetEase reported C1Q25 revenue, GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in line, 25% and 31% vs. our estimates, and in line, 29% and 30% vs. consensus. 
  • The game revenue up cycle was as we predicted, but the surprise came from AI-enhanced advertising and organizational streamlining, leading to operation margin improvements.
  • With game revenue up cycle still in full swing, we incline to keep NTES on the TOP BUY list and raise TP from US$122 to 136.

MFI: Initiating Coverage of a Differentiated Fintech Trading Platform

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • mF International Limited (NASDAQ: MFI) is a financial technology company providing foreign exchange (forex) and bullion/commodities trading platform solutions, financial/information services, and mobile applications to brokers, investment banks, institutional clients, and financial services companies primarily based in Hong Kong, mainland China, and Southeast Asia.
  • The company’s principal operating subsidiary was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.
  • mF International listed on the NASDAQ Capital Market following the company’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April 2024.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Outperforming with Essentials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Outperforming with Essentials
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): A Relative Value Play
  • Vulcan Materials: Rock On – [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch “Surge O1” With 3nm.
  • Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung
  • VEON (VEON US): Digital Momentum Builds as Kyivstar IPO and Fintech Unlocks Take Shape
  • CARE Ratings Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Performance Driven by Ratings and Diversification Gains
  • Formula 1 CEO: Sport Evolution, Elite Drivers and Full-Speed Leadership
  • [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Outperforming with Essentials

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart as a supplier of essential goods. 
  • The company cut promotional spending in 1Q2025 by half, which improved profitability by 30% QoQ, but it still booked SSSG of 8.8% YoY, outperforming other consumer staples players. 
  • Alfamart continued to open new stores in 1Q2025, targetting 1,000 new outlets this year. This should help drive growth in 2025, along with SSSG. Valuations remain attractive versus growth prospects.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC explained that the growing demand for autonomous driving technologies in smartphones, PCs, IoT devices, and the automotive industry is driving the development of its N4/N3 and N6RF process technologies.
  • TSMC announced that the A14 process, which will adopt the new NanoFlex Pro technology, is scheduled to begin production in 2028.
  • TSMC plans to launch CoWoS-L with 5.5x reticle size in 2026 and surpass current CoWoS limitations with 9.5x reticle size by 2027.

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): A Relative Value Play

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • While one of the two companies displays higher revenue growth, the valuation might begin to become stretched. Fundamental key figures are provided to complement the statistical analysis.
  • Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

Vulcan Materials: Rock On – [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Vulcan Materials is a major player in the construction aggregates market, providing the foundation for buildings, roads, and infrastructure in the United States.
  • The company owns and operates quarries across the country, with a market cap close to $30 billion.
  • Aggregates are essential for asphalt and concrete production, with Vulcan playing a crucial role in supplying this key material for construction projects.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch “Surge O1” With 3nm.

By Patrick Liao

  • Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.
  • Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   
  • While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).  

Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Reports of Samsung securing 2nm customers (Nvidia, Qualcomm), but AMD is saying that TSMC has the best and only 2nm, Nvidia saying there’s no alternative to TSMC CoWoS.   
  • Competition at 2nm / 18A is already over. Chips tape-out are rolling out. If Intel, Samsung can gain Foundry customers, it is for the next node 14A in 2027-28.
  • The difficulty for Intel and Samsung is that TSMC is a lot faster to develop PDK, qualify process, tape-out chips. The total cost of chipdesign at US$0.5-1bn is another hurdle.  

VEON (VEON US): Digital Momentum Builds as Kyivstar IPO and Fintech Unlocks Take Shape

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • VEON returned to billion-dollar quarterly revenue in 1Q25; EBITDA grew 13.7% YoY on strong digital execution.
  • Digital revenues rose 50% YoY, now 14.3% of group total.
  • Kyivstar IPO on track for 3Q25 at US$2.3bn valuation; fintech optionality in Bangladesh and Ukraine emerging.

CARE Ratings Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Performance Driven by Ratings and Diversification Gains

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • CARE Ratings achieved its highest-ever standalone and consolidated income and profitability in FY25, significantly improving margins across the group.
  • The results validate the effectiveness of the company’s quality-led growth strategy, operational efficiencies, and strategic investments in non-ratings and international businesses.
  • The performance reinforces confidence in Care’s ability to outpace the industry and achieve its diversification targets, supported by strong execution and market positioning.

Formula 1 CEO: Sport Evolution, Elite Drivers and Full-Speed Leadership

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • F1 is evolving to be more than just a sport, focusing on entertainment and business development
  • The fan base is becoming younger and more diverse, with 40% women and 60% men, average age 35
  • F1 is balancing historic venues with new races, aiming for 24 races per season and considering new markets in Asia and Africa

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?

By Ying Pan

  • Alibaba (BABA) reported C1Q25 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus. Taobao/Tmall (T/T) outperformed while Cainiao and Int’l commerce underperformed. 
  • Stabilization of domestic e-commerce is a major positive. However, on-demand e-commerce at home and video e-commerce abroad are two global growth drivers, 
  • We see new challenges emerging following business stabilization. We believe the management is up to the task. We keep BABA in our TOP BUY list and reiterate rating and TP.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Cracking the Crypto Code: Quant Alpha New Frontier | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #004 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cracking the Crypto Code: Quant Alpha New Frontier | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #004


Cracking the Crypto Code: Quant Alpha New Frontier | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #004

By William Mann

  • Digital assets are the new frontier for investors, with AI and disruptive tech playing a key role
  • Market inefficiencies in crypto still exist, leading to potential profit opportunities
  • On-chain metrics provide unique insights for predicting future price movements in the crypto market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares
  • Clearing Confusion on Samsung C&T’s Forced Holding Co Conversion: Key Trade Angle in Biologics Split
  • Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales
  • Samsung Biologics: Creation of a Holding Company to Split CDMO and Biosimilar Businesses
  • Air Canada’s Odd-Lot Tender Offer: Potential Upside Amid CapEx Challenges and Transborder Revenue Declines
  • No Compromise: Deal on Hold, and UniCredit Won’t Pay More


CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning

By David Blennerhassett

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
  • Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
  • It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL’s H shares the day before shares were listed.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) AGMs to elect directors and approve the share exchange agreement to merge the two. 
  • 10% Tsuruha shareholder Orbis objects to the merger ratio AND the later tender whereby Aeon goes to 51%, saying everything is underpriced. ISS/GlassLewis recommend voting against the merger.
  • I haven’t seen the proxy reports but I’ve done the math. Investors/arbs should look at the possibilities/probabilities and understand what dependencies exist. Shareholders are not helpless, no matter the outcome.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

By Arun George

  • The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close today, it was announced that KKR is selling 3.81 million shares (8.5% of outstanding shares) of HD Hyundai Marine Solution in a block deal sale.
  • The expected block deal sale price is 145,000 won to 148,000 won per share, which represent 7.96% to 9.83% discount to the closing price of 160,800 won on 22 May.
  • Once this block deal is completed, KKR’s remaining stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution will be reduced to 11% (4.94 million shares).

Clearing Confusion on Samsung C&T’s Forced Holding Co Conversion: Key Trade Angle in Biologics Split

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung C&T’s holding ratio mainly hinges on its Samsung Biologics stake; Samsung Electronics’ 5% isn’t counted, and Samsung SDS is excluded since Samsung Electronics is its largest shareholder.
  • This ties to calls for Samsung’s governance overhaul, aiming for C&T to avoid forced conversion while boosting control over Samsung Electronics via bold, more aggressive moves than expected.
  • Samsung C&T will likely sell some Biologics shares around its in-kind contribution to Epis, timing sales based on post-listing price action.

Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Samsung Biologics: Creation of a Holding Company to Split CDMO and Biosimilar Businesses

By Douglas Kim

  • On 22 May, Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) announced that that it plans to establish a new holding company called Samsung Bioepis Holdings through a spin-off.
  • Samsung Bioepis Holdings will fully incorporate Samsung Bioepis as a wholly owned subsidiary. Samsung Bioepis will focus on the biosimilars business. Samsung Biologics will focus on the CDMO business. 
  • There is likely to be mixed reactions to Samsung Biologics’ announcement to create a holding company structure to split the CDMO and biosimilar businesses.

Air Canada’s Odd-Lot Tender Offer: Potential Upside Amid CapEx Challenges and Transborder Revenue Declines

By Special Situation Investments

  • Air Canada is conducting a tender offer for ~8% of shares, prioritizing odd-lot holders, with potential upside.
  • The company plans significant CapEx for fleet modernization, impacting free cash flow and financial projections until 2028.
  • Air Canada’s valuation is low compared to peers, trading at 3.3x EBITDA, with a 54% EBITDA growth target by 2028.

No Compromise: Deal on Hold, and UniCredit Won’t Pay More

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Consob suspends offer: Italy’s market regulator halts UniCredit’s bid amid unresolved regulatory conditions and growing uncertainty.
  • Shareholders push back: With Crédit Agricole holding 19.8%, resistance builds against a bid lacking premium or clarity.
  • Higher bid unlikely, but Possible: UniCredit has room to raise terms, but tighter capital impact and ROI pressure post-DC rejection make an improved offer improbable without regulatory or shareholder shifts.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Pakuwon Jati
  • The UST curve bear steepened aggressively yesterday, driven by a soft auction of 20Y notes amid concerns over the US Budget deficit. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 5 bps to 4.02%, while that on the 10Y UST jumped 11 bps to 4.60%.
  • Moreover, the yield on the 30Y UST climbed 12 bps to 5.09%, the highest since October 2023. Equities retreated on concerns over the US’ safe-haven status. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 5,845, while the Nasdaq declined 1.4% to 18,873.

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Daily Brief Macro: [ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • [ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge
  • The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle
  • PMI Goods Vibes
  • CX Daily: Chinese Tech Giants’ Struggle to Power AI Data Center Boom
  • Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue


[ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
  • The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
  • Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an ‘Overweight’ rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.
  • Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

PMI Goods Vibes

By Phil Rush

  • Broad improvements in the flash manufacturing PMIs demonstrate ongoing resilience relative to consumers’ bad vibes. Goods trade seemingly shrugged off the tariff shock.
  • The UK was alone in weakening, but it is more susceptible to bad vibes, showing more noise than signal. April’s spurious lows were revised away and may repeat or rebound.
  • Transmission to unemployment also isn’t happening, leaving little case for easing unless recessionary pressures build, and the PMIs still hawkishly suggest that isn’t the case.

CX Daily: Chinese Tech Giants’ Struggle to Power AI Data Center Boom

By Caixin Global

  • Power / In Depth: Chinese tech giants’ struggle to power AI data center boom
  • Tariff /: China’s EV-battery makers get only temporary relief from U.S. tariff truce
  • Crypto /In Depth: Are Hong Kong’s crypto licenses worth it?

Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue

By DBX Commodities

  • Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by 2% in 2025, though exports are expected to struggle against strong Russian competition.
  • Corn: Prices fell from $4.82/bu in April to $4.46/bu in May, driven by robust U.S. planting and higher production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. Despite the dip, USDA’s forecast of the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years underscores tightening supply.
  • Soybeans: Climbed to $10.80/bushel in early May, the highest since July 2024, supported by U.S.-China tariff adjustments and solid Chinese demand for South American soy.

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