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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology, ESR Group , Tencent, Shanghai Runda Medical Tec-A, Chery Automobile, Yadea Group Holdings, Innovent Biologics Inc, Xiamen Hithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June
  • Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games
  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes as Trade Flatlines
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season
  • Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory
  • ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer
  • Yadea Group Holdings (1585.HK):The Silent EV Titan Scaling Beyond Borders; Positive Outlook for 2025
  • Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)
  • Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play


CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

By Brian Freitas


ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June

By Arun George

  • ESR Group (1821 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$13.00 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 13 June. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
  • This is a done deal due to the substantial irrevocables. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/9.12%.

Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China’s game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Of the companies that we are monitoring, none of them got approval for domestic games but a handful approvals of imported games save their day.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes as Trade Flatlines

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period ended on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
  • There could be 5 changes in June where passive trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 1-4x ADV in the forecast deletes.
  • A long adds/ short deletes trade has gone nowhere in the last 6-7 months, and the volatility of the trade has reduced even further in the last couple of months.

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season

By Ying Pan

  • Tencent reported C1Q25 rev., IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net inc, in-line, (3.1%), (5.6%) vs. our est. and 3.8%, (2.3%), (4.9%) vs. cons. 
  • As predicted, Tencent maintained a transitional game quarter well, going forward new game launches shall fill the pipeline while recovering consumption helping on advertising and fintech. 
  • We raised our TP to HK$584 for better outlook and place Tencent back to the TOP BUY list. Our TP implies 21x PE.

Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Chery Auto, one of China’s oldest state-owned carmakers and #2 domestic passenger vehicle brand, plans to raise more than $1B in its upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.
  • The company has been China’s top vehicle exporter for 22 consecutive years since 2003. The automaker was founded in 1997 Mr. Yin Tongyue, Chairman & President of Chery Auto.
  • Chery Auto is an extremely ambitious company with strong overseas presence. The biggest revenue growth driver will be higher NEV sales in the coming years, in my view.

ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 4th December 2024, the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
  • There was a raft of pre-cons, however processing went like clockwork, and all were satisfied by the 15th May.  
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 13th June, and payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says “fair & reasonable“.

Yadea Group Holdings (1585.HK):The Silent EV Titan Scaling Beyond Borders; Positive Outlook for 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Volume Dip in 2024:Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) ‘s total unit sales fell 21% YoY amid regulatory shifts, inventory destocking, and weak market sentiment.
  • Innovation Resilience: Despite headwinds, Yadea launched sodium-ion e-bikes, reinforcing its R&D leadership and product differentiation.
  • Positive 2025 Outlook: Management guides for rebound driven by “trade-in” policy, regulatory clarity, and international expansion.

Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)

By Avien Pillay

  • Strong results reflect progress of existing approved drugs including key oncology drugs.
  • Mazdutide is set to be released in 2025, and the company is currently making plans for the release.
  • Innovent Biologics continues to add to its drug development portfolio.

Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play

By Nicholas Tan

  • Xiamen Hithium (2190977D CH)  is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • It is a leading global new energy technology company providing all-round energy storage solutions centred around energy storage batteries and systems.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Daily Brief India: Punjab National Bank, Indusind Bank, Godawari Power and Ispat, Allied Blenders & Distillers, ADF Foods , Karamtara Engineering Ltd, Krsnaa Diagnostics and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Canara Bank (CBK IN) Vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN): A Relative Value Opportunity
  • IndusInd Bank Crisis: More Discrepancies, Losses, Suspected Fraud
  • Godawari Power: Expansion Led Growth Ahead Despite Near-Term Delays
  • ABDL Q4 Update: A Transformational Year with Record Performance and Premiumization Drive
  • ADF Foods Q4 Update: Strategic Shifts Driving Growth, Margin Expansion, Capex
  • Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
  • Krsnaa Diagnostics Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Margin Expansion Despite Revenue Growth Shortfall


Canara Bank (CBK IN) Vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN): A Relative Value Opportunity

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • The relative value opportunity has a target return of approximately 6% and can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
  • Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

IndusInd Bank Crisis: More Discrepancies, Losses, Suspected Fraud

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Indusind Bank (IIB IN) faces significant accounting discrepancies, leadership resignations, and suspicions of fraud, with the bank announcing a net loss of Rs 2,329Crs in Q4 FY25 due to this.
  • The escalating situation, involving fraud suspicions and leadership resignations, raises concerns about the bank’s internal controls, financial reporting, and governance.
  • IndusInd Bank’s path forward hinges on transparent investigations, fixing internal control systems, and restoring leadership accountability. Investors should closely monitor the regulatory response and management’s corrective actions.

Godawari Power: Expansion Led Growth Ahead Despite Near-Term Delays

By Rahul Jain

  • Iron ore mining capacity expansion from 2.35 MTPA to 6 MTPA and pellet capacity from 2.7 MTPA to 4.7 MTPA expected by 3QFY26 with full ramp-up by Q4 FY26.
  • 4QFY25 consolidated revenues of ₹1,468 crore, with EBITDA at ₹318 crore and PAT at ₹221 crore, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year due to lower realizations.
  • Valuations appear reasonable driven by steady earnings growth backed by capacity addition, mine expansion and operational efficiencies.

ABDL Q4 Update: A Transformational Year with Record Performance and Premiumization Drive

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN)‘s FY25 marked a pivotal shift with record profitability, fueled by premiumization, cost efficiency, and expansion into international markets, notably through its luxury portfolio.
  • Record profitability and a strengthened balance sheet position ABDL for aggressive expansion in the high-margin super-premium and luxury segments, supported by strategic CapEx.
  • ABD’s transformation into a premium-focused brand with significant global expansion potential, particularly in luxury segments, positions it for sustained growth and higher margins.

ADF Foods Q4 Update: Strategic Shifts Driving Growth, Margin Expansion, Capex

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • ADF Foods (ADFL IN) reported robust Q4 & FY25 results, driven by strong growth in key brands and strategic adjustments in North American distribution.
  • The company’s focus on improving distribution and expanding manufacturing capacity signals a stronger platform for future growth, particularly for its flagship Ashoka brand.
  • The strategic initiatives and consistent performance reinforce a positive outlook, suggesting continued market share gains and profitability for ADF Foods.

Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Karamtara Engineering Ltd (6589452Z IN)  (KEL) is planning to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • KEL is a backward integrated manufacturer of products for renewable energy and transmission lines sectors. 
  • As per F&S report, KEL was a leading manufacturer of solar mounting structures and tracker components in India and the largest in terms of installed capacity in FY24 and 1H25.

Krsnaa Diagnostics Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Margin Expansion Despite Revenue Growth Shortfall

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Krsnaa Diagnostics (KRSNAA IN) reported robust margin expansion in FY25 driven by operational efficiency and a favourable business mix. Retail footprint expanded significantly, quadrupling touchpoints in focus states.
  • Enhanced profitability highlights the effectiveness of cost control and operational leverage. Retail growth diversifies revenue beyond the core PPP model.
  • Reinforces management’s commitment to profitable and disciplined growth over aggressive top-line targets alone. Acknowledges execution hurdles like site delays but underscores confidence in receivables and future growth.

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Daily Brief Japan: Seven Bank Ltd, Shibaura Electronics, Red Planet Japan, Fast Retailing, Ichiken Co Ltd, IBJ and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad
  • [Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo
  • Metaplanet (3350) | Japan’s Bitcoin Rocket
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup:  Buy-This-Dip
  • Ichiken Co Ltd (1847 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • IBJ (6071 JP) – Momentum Building with Diversification


[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

By Travis Lundy

  • Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
  • Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. 
  • I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal – it’s weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank

[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…

By Travis Lundy

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) approached Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) for a takeover at ¥4300. Shibaura dismissed them and asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) to overbid. They did at ¥4500. 
  • Then Yageo overbid Minebea at ¥5400, who then overbid Yageo at ¥5500, who then re-overbid at ¥6200. Despite not having its FEFTA Approval in place, YAGEO overbid and launched. 
  • The Minebea CEO objected. We don’t know status. Now the Shibaura Special Committee has paused, supporting but not recommending the Minebea bid and Neutral on Yageo. We are in limbo.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo

By Arun George

  • The Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) Board supports Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) JPY5,500 offer, but has shifted its recommendation from tendering to a neutral stance. 
  • The Board maintains that it is not yet in a position to provide an opinion on Yageo’s JPY6,200 offer due to concerns on feasibility and synergies. 
  • Minebea hopes Yageo will withdraw due to its failure to secure regulatory approvals. If Yageo secures the required approvals, Minebea will actively consider measures.

Metaplanet (3350) | Japan’s Bitcoin Rocket

By Mark Chadwick

  • Metaplanet’s secret weapon? Moving-strike warrants that raise equity into strength—fueling BTC buys while sidestepping the deep discounts typical of Japan’s small-cap raises.
  • Forget buybacks. Metaplanet is redefining shareholder value by issuing stock, not retiring it—turning dilution into accretion via Bitcoin per-share growth.
  • A 4.6x mNAV premium gives Metaplanet unmatched BTC buying power—creating a capital flywheel that most traditional treasuries can only envy.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup:  Buy-This-Dip

By Nico Rosti

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = “Hold”.
  • The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.
  • This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.

Ichiken Co Ltd (1847 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Ichiken’s FY03/25 revenue was JPY99.0bn, with operating profit at JPY6.9bn, and net income at JPY4.7bn.
  • Construction business FY03/25 revenue reached JPY98.7bn, with operating profit at JPY8.7bn, orders rose 3.6% YoY.
  • FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY99.0bn, operating profit JPY5.4bn, net income JPY3.5bn, with a dividend of JPY140/share.

IBJ (6071 JP) – Momentum Building with Diversification

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1 FY12/25 results were ahead of expectations with +57.1% OP growth YoY.
  • The core marriage agency business experienced steady growth, with both the Affiliate Business and the Directly Managed Lounge Business driving new membership growth with optimized marketing spend.
  • IBJ is leveraging its core competencies in operating a leading matchmaking franchise model to expand into adjacent businesses and develop new earnings pillars, primarily the newly disclosed K Village Business segment and ‘NAYUTAS’, its Korean voice training and dance school operation. 

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Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Contemporary Amperex Technology, Sung Kwang Bend, Mayne Pharma, Seven Bank Ltd, Delta Electronics Thailand , Shibaura Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
  • CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Announcement Around the Corner
  • Mayne Disagrees With Cosette On MAC
  • [Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad
  • CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Capping DELTA & Constituent Changes
  • UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures
  • [Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…


CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go

By Brian Freitas

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
  • There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
  • CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow

By Brian Freitas

  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a 6.9% premium to Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) – if that is due to expectations of Fast Entry, that premium could drop.
  • CATL (3750 HK) has not announced the overallotment option as exercised and that puts Fast Entry at risk. An announcement prior to the close tomorrow could lead to Fast Entry.
  • The earliest inclusion could be at the close on 30 May while the other global index inclusion looks likely in December.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Announcement Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the June rebalance complete, we highlight 11 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)
  • The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.2-7.5 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.2-5.8 days of ADV.
  • The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6-7 months with a big move higher in the last month. Trim positions into strength.

Mayne Disagrees With Cosette On MAC

By David Blennerhassett

  • As widely speculated, Cosette asserted to Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) on the 17th May a Material Adverse Change (MAC) has occurred.
  • Mayne disagrees, and views the pre-requisites for a MAC, as defined in the SID, have not been established. 
  • What now? The Scheme is not terminated. Both parties remain in consultation. If those talks are not satisfactory (say, a price reduction [my guess]), Cosette said it will walk. 

[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

By Travis Lundy

  • Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
  • Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. 
  • I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal – it’s weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

By Brian Freitas


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse

By Arun George

  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette asserts that a material adverse change has occurred due to its trading performance, litigation and FDA untitled letter. 
  • Cosette has not quantified the impact, and Mayne disputes the assertion. Mayne’s trading performance is likely the largest contributor to Cosette’s MAC-related claims. 
  • Precedent schemes suggest a lower offer is the best-case scenario. An unwilling bidder looking for angles, contractually, to exit suggests the likely outcome is a scheme termination.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Capping DELTA & Constituent Changes

By Brian Freitas


UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures

By Phil Rush

  • Our above-consensus forecast was exceeded by UK inflation flying higher in April amid administered price rises and postponed price increases due to the late Easter in 2025.
  • Airfares still soared 10pp more than the norm for a late Easter, and 20pp above the April average. This stoked service and core inflation, although the median was steadier.
  • We expect inflation to grind up until October, whereas the consensus assumes stability until then. Persistently excessive inflation should discourage the BoE from cutting again.

[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…

By Travis Lundy

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) approached Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) for a takeover at ¥4300. Shibaura dismissed them and asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) to overbid. They did at ¥4500. 
  • Then Yageo overbid Minebea at ¥5400, who then overbid Yageo at ¥5500, who then re-overbid at ¥6200. Despite not having its FEFTA Approval in place, YAGEO overbid and launched. 
  • The Minebea CEO objected. We don’t know status. Now the Shibaura Special Committee has paused, supporting but not recommending the Minebea bid and Neutral on Yageo. We are in limbo.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Hanmi Semicon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Hanmi Semicon, Celltrion, Alteogen, Hanjinkal


KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Hanmi Semicon, Celltrion, Alteogen, Hanjinkal

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of May 16th. The aggregated short interest was USD6.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Hanmi Semicon, Celltrion, Alteogen, Hanjinkal, Lg Energy Solution, SK Hynix, Posco Future M, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Vision.

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Daily Brief ESG: Smartkarma Webinar | Promoting Sustainability in ASEAN: Rise of the Green Economy and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Promoting Sustainability in ASEAN: Rise of the Green Economy
  • Many Companies in Japan Are Still Hesitant to Hire the Talent They Need


Smartkarma Webinar | Promoting Sustainability in ASEAN: Rise of the Green Economy

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Sharmila Whelan

  • Due to the region’s fast-growing urban areas and proximity to coastal regions, ASEAN is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

  • Even as countries in ASEAN pursue economic growth, these efforts cannot be isolated from a focus on sustainability. Achieving sustainable growth will open the doors to not just unprecedented, future-forward opportunities, but also large-scale risks and challenges that demand innovative solutions.

  • Understanding the myriad benefits that a green economy brings, ASEAN countries have taken several steps to accelerate their green transition.

Join us as Sharmila Whelan shares her thoughts on ASEAN’s energy transition, discussing carbon emission trends, national clean energy policies, green financing progress, and the region’s fastest ESG adopters.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 4 June 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Sharmila Whelan is a seasoned Global Geopolitical-Macro Strategist with nearly three decades of experience advising buy-side clients on multi-asset investment strategies and asset allocations. Her career has been defined by her differentiated thinking, a deep understanding of the interlinkages between global geopolitics, macro and policy dynamics and Austrian business cycle approach to economic analysis. Sharmila has extensive experience in both developed and emerging markets, particularly in China and India, and a proven track record of accurately forecasting investment risks and opportunities ahead of consensus.


Many Companies in Japan Are Still Hesitant to Hire the Talent They Need

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Given the rapid aging of Japan’s population, if the current composition of the board of directors continues, the number of directors will further age in the future.
  • A board that embraces diverse age range is likely to embrace people with diverse backgrounds and skillsets, and a diverse board composition is likely to have positive impact on management.
  • In Japan, with strong peer pressure, CEOs controlling human resources, % independent directors and female board members in 40% and 15%, many companies are hesitant to hire talent they need.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading


Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest “bearish” headline regarding Moody’s U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
  • This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this “lockout rally,” and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
  • Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Escalating Trade Tensions: An Analysis of the Bangladesh-India Trade War and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Escalating Trade Tensions: An Analysis of the Bangladesh-India Trade War
  • Ohayo Japan | Caution Reigns
  • Japan Morning Connection: Musk Planning an XAI 1-Million GPU AI-Factory May Lift Tech to Start
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BIDU/AAPL/BABA US/3690 HK/PDD US/TCOMUS/1024 HK/WRD US/PONY US/
  • US Banks & Economy – Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1810 HK/Consumer Sector/Macro
  • #150 India Insight: Adani, Tata Drive Defence & EV Push, Trade Shift May Boost India by 2035.
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 20 May (ABN Amro | Sif Holding)


Escalating Trade Tensions: An Analysis of the Bangladesh-India Trade War

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India has restricted 42% of imports from Bangladesh, impacting $770 million worth of goods, mainly garments, as a direct response to Bangladesh’s trade barriers.
  • The trade war could severely impact Bangladesh’s economy, especially its export-driven garment sector, while protecting India’s domestic industries.
  • The conflict reveals a deeper geopolitical shift, with Bangladesh strengthening ties with China, potentially altering regional trade dynamics in South Asia.

Ohayo Japan | Caution Reigns

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks declined Tuesday as skepticism grew over the durability of the recent rally fuelled by easing trade tensions
  • St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warning that current tariff levels could still pose significant economic risks
  • Seven &i Holdings plans to sell a portion of its Seven Bank shares to ITOCHU Corporation

Japan Morning Connection: Musk Planning an XAI 1-Million GPU AI-Factory May Lift Tech to Start

By Andrew Jackson

  • Quantum names in play still with D-Wave now 155% MTD should help Socionext as well as upgrade.
  • Wolfspeed bankruptcy may be initially negative but ultimately positive for Renesas.
  • SK Hynix reportedly getting the contract to supply NAND for Nintendo Swicth2.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BIDU/AAPL/BABA US/3690 HK/PDD US/TCOMUS/1024 HK/WRD US/PONY US/

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK/BIDU US: Tencent announced a comprehensive AI technology upgrade for its browser product “QQ Browser” (+/-/-)
  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <Final Fantasy 14 Mobile> to Launch Technical Beta Test (+)
  • AAPL US/BABA US: Alibaba and Apple’s AI collaboration faces US government scrutiny (-/-)

US Banks & Economy – Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Commercial paper outstanding in the US issued by non-financials is at its highest levels in the most recent week, since at least early FY23
  • The growth rate of CP outstanding in the US, from companies that make stuff, not banks, is growing at 10% YoY
  • This is another indicator of relatively strong underlying economics in the US, like what we see with HFD for US banks with C&I and Other Loans To Non FI’s

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1810 HK/Consumer Sector/Macro

By Eric Wen

  • BEKE US- Real Estate : Weekly Property Transaction Update (-)
  • 1810 HK: Xiaomi to Launch Self-Developed 3nm Chip and SUV YU7 (+)
  • Consumer sector: April Retail Sales Growth Fell Short of Expectations, But Seasonality Still Outperformed Historical Trends (+/+/+)

#150 India Insight: Adani, Tata Drive Defence & EV Push, Trade Shift May Boost India by 2035.

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Defence partners with Sparton to manufacture indigenous sonobuoys, enhancing India’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities under ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
  • Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) is enhancing its EV lineup with new models and product upgrades, aiming to mainstream electric vehicles in India.
  • India may benefit from global trade protectionism, with reshoring and energy security boosting manufacturing growth and GDP by 2035.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 20 May (ABN Amro | Sif Holding)

By The IDEA!

  • ABN AMRO Bank has been informed by NLFI (acting on behalf of the Dutch state) that it has reduced its stake in ABN AMRO to below one-third.
  • NLFI is currently executing its trading plan, as announced on 15 October 2024, to reduce its stake in ABN AMRO to approximately 30%.
  • With NLFI’s stake falling below one third, several of its rights in the Relationship Agreement will no longer apply. 

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Daily Brief ECM: Belrise Industries IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Belrise Industries IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing – Energized – Fast Growth, Better Margins
  • Pre-IPO Shouhui Tech (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Belrise Industries IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN) is looking to raise about US$255m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing – Energized – Fast Growth, Better Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Pre-IPO Shouhui Tech (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Shouhui’s business model does not have high barriers, with weak ability to resist risks.For investors, this is a bet on the industry’s prospects and a test of the management’s ability.
  • The “unified reporting and underwriting” policy has become the turning point in this industry. If financial performance continues to deteriorate, Shouhui may undergo business restructuring or seek M&As.
  • Due to increasing competition, decreasing commissions, disintermediation trend, tightening policy environment, we are not optimistic about the outlook of Shouhui. The valuation of Shouhui would be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi

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