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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact
  • Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in February
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13
  • EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 09 – 13
  • EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI December 09-13
  • EQD | ASX 200 Presents a High-Probability Buy-The-Dip Opportunity
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 09 – 13


KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX updated the Value-Up Index with five new names: KB Financial, Hana Financial, KT Corp, SK Telecom, and Hyundai Mobis, with Mobis replacing JB Financial, surprising the market.
  • This is the first rebalancing, packed into one day, so expect notable price action. Reverse moves could also follow Thursday as pre-positioned trades unwind, so monitor price action closely.
  • Even after Thursday’s rebalancing, half of the funds, especially from the National Pension Service, will flow into high-yield stocks, likely driving significant price moves through early next year.

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

By Brian Freitas


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
  • We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in February

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the February rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) ends in two weeks.
  • There could be two changes for the index with passive trackers needing to trade between 23-64x ADV in the stocks.
  • The passive buying is a lot larger than the passive selling, there will be funding outflows for the other index constituents; some stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

By John Ley

  • Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.
  • Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.
  • Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 09 – 13

By John Ley

  • A bid for out-of-the-money puts combined with positive change in Put open interest and Put volume totals argues that Puts and being bought.
  • 70% of NKY open interest is below 38,000 with only 20% of the open interest above 40,000.
  • NKY nearing top of range while registering quiet historic volatility levels 4-5 points below implied vols. 

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI December 09-13

By John Ley

  • Both HSI and HSCEI show characteristics of being short gamma at higher strikes highlighted by Mondays pop in spot and vol in both markets.
  • Implied vol did a complete round-trip closing virtually unchanged from last week despite spot holding on to modest gains on the week and large high – low range.
  • Up-Strike Calls look to have been added in both markets which will help maintain the positive spot vol correlation.

EQD | ASX 200 Presents a High-Probability Buy-The-Dip Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P/ASX 200 INDEX it’s currently trending up quite well, since October 2023. The current rally picked up some steam from July 2024 and is quite steady. 
  • The index started to pull back 2 weeks ago and has closed 2 consecutive weeks down and this week started with a Monday down Close.
  • Our models show a clear opportunity to buy this dip and ride the index uptrend back to >3% profit target, roughly a 3-weeks movement according to our forecast.

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 09 – 13

By John Ley

  • Risk reward for owning implied vol has shifted to the long side here given spot/vol dynamics and limited vol upside since market peaked 17% higher.
  • Strong price action after a soggy start to the week sees a significant portion of open interest cleared out.
  • Largest open interest is at the 300 strike with ~ 42k Put contracts outstanding.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: BYD Electronics (285 HK): Earnings Bottoming Out in 4Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD Electronics (285 HK): Earnings Bottoming Out in 4Q24, EV and Data Center Driving Growth in 2025
  • Infrastructure mini-series Ep 1: The Growing Demand For Infrastructure Investment
  • Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024
  • Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Navigating Turbulence
  • Asian Equities: The SMID Compounders
  • UiPath Inc.: These Are The 5 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers
  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist
  • INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Growth Acceleration
  • Signet Jewelers Limited: Can Its Strategic Capital Allocation Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
  • 2025 High Conviction: Coinbase – What Doesn’t Kill You, Makes You Stronger


BYD Electronics (285 HK): Earnings Bottoming Out in 4Q24, EV and Data Center Driving Growth in 2025

By John Liu

  • BYD Electronics benefits from two key growth drivers in 2025: a cyclical upswing in its legacy EMS business, and sustained strong growth in auto electronics and AI data cooling devices.
  • Earnings momentum is expected to pick up in 4Q, with key segments entering an earning upcycle. Expect bottomline growth to accelerate to 45% in 2025 from 9% in 2024.
  • The 13x 2025 PE multiple does not capture BYDE’s transformation from a low-end, cyclical EMS to a leading high-precision manufacturer with a more diverse and balanced set of growth drivers.

Infrastructure mini-series Ep 1: The Growing Demand For Infrastructure Investment

By The Bid

  • Infrastructure is crucial for the transition to a low carbon economy and the advancement of the economy, requiring urgent repairs to aging infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and airports.
  • Private capital plays a key role in investing in infrastructure assets, with a focus on operational improvements and creating value for investors.
  • The growing demand for investment in infrastructure, especially in the areas of AI and data centers, presents significant opportunities for private sector funding and operational enhancements.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has been consistently undervalued in the market despite strong revenue and earnings growth
  • The company’s average forward P/E multiple over the past 15+ years has been just 21.7x, even though it has consistently outperformed the S&P 500
  • Currently trading at a discounted valuation of around 17x 2025E EPS, Alphabet has been mispriced for most of its 20-year history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Navigating Turbulence

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.
  • Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.
  • Asian Paints’ current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.

Asian Equities: The SMID Compounders

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Following on from our previous note, we now identify inexpensive consistent compounders from the small and mid-cap universe in Asia ($1 – $5 bn in market capitalization).
  • 28 stocks are on our list – 18 from onshore China, 5 from India, 2 each from Japan and Taiwan and 1 from Hong Kong.
  • Industrials, technology, healthcare and financials dominate the list. The list of large and mid-cap compounders shall largely form the backbone of our top stock choices for 2025.

UiPath Inc.: These Are The 5 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • UiPath reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, surpassing its guidance on all crucial financial metrics.
  • The company concluded the quarter with an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $1.607 billion, marking a 17% increase driven by a net new ARR of $56 million.
  • Quarterly revenue reached $355 million, and the company achieved a non-GAAP operating income of $50 million.

Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A conversation with Indosat (ISAT IJ) managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel’s recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. 
  • 2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. 
  • Indosat‘s move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp‘s GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.

INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Growth Acceleration

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Exhibiting a robust growth profile – Solid topline growth and a marked improvement in profitability YoY were the key highlights of Q1 FY7/24 results, demonstrating that INTLOOP’s growth strategy encompassing M&A and business investment is beginning to yield positive outcomes.
  • Sales growth of 63.3% YoY was driven primarily by the acquisitive impact of DICS Holdings, and margin enhancement YoY was said to be driven by obtaining high-margin projects, which we believe also stems from raised pricing and improving consultant productivity.
  • Management continues to invest in the business primarily via recruitment and building business alliances that should strengthen its network and selling activities.

Signet Jewelers Limited: Can Its Strategic Capital Allocation Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Signet Jewelers’ third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report presents a nuanced outlook on the company’s current standing and its future trajectory.
  • The company has demonstrated a mixed performance, showing improvements in certain areas while encountering challenges in others.
  • One of the notable positives from the report is Signet’s continued sales momentum, as indicated by the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential same-store sales improvement, despite an overall decline of 0.7% in same store sales.

2025 High Conviction: Coinbase – What Doesn’t Kill You, Makes You Stronger

By Alec Tseung

  • Coinbase has managed to weather the crypto winter well by reporting net profits consecutively for 4 quarters.
  • Its share price has shot up recently as the whole crypto market became exuberant, thanks to Trump’s re-election, but still below the IPO debut price of $381.
  • Our thesis remains the same as when the stock was trading as low as ~$68 in May 2022: Coinbase to become an indispensable platform for Web 3, esp. first-time users.

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Daily Brief Macro: Speadbites: Food for Credit Market Thought as We Head Into the Holidays and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Speadbites: Food for Credit Market Thought as We Head Into the Holidays
  • Steno Signals #176 – Will 2025 be 2007 or 2021 all over again?
  • US Rig Count Steady After Strong Surge Last Week
  • Monday Macro: Bumper Crystal Ball Time, Plus the US Equity Bulls Are Still Rampaging
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Indosat’s AI, MAPI’s Expansion, and BliBli’s Omnichannel
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/50] WTI Gains on China Optimism and Sanction-Driven Concerns
  • Vietnam Sitting Pretty As Global Prices Paint A Rosy October
  • PMIs Serve A Festive Party
  • Syria, The World And Markets
  • United Kingdom Economy – December 3, 2024


Speadbites: Food for Credit Market Thought as We Head Into the Holidays

By At Any Rate

  • Global credit ecosystem remains stable, similar to 2024 outlook
  • Tight spreads and low all-in yields support demand in credit markets
  • Concerns about non-cash accrual companies in private credit portfolios and potential impact on risk distribution from public to private markets, but overall sentiment remains positive for credit markets.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Steno Signals #176 – Will 2025 be 2007 or 2021 all over again?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to my weekly editorial, where I assess the big-picture macro landscape, explore potential risks, and identify the next narrative for traders.
  • Last week, I kept getting pings, rings, and dings from traders eager to discuss whether inflation is poised to make a comeback following the fourth consecutive hot inflation report in the U.S. Admittedly, we’re trending around 3.5% inflation on an annualized basis, which doesn’t look great amidst a cutting cycle.
  • Consequently, the market has started repricing the inflation outlook, with the near-term (2-year) outlook once again outpacing the 10-year inflation outlook in inflation swaps.

US Rig Count Steady After Strong Surge Last Week

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged at 589 for the week ending on 13/Dec, after rising by seven the previous week.
  • For the week ending 06/Dec, US oil production rose to a new high of 13.63m bpd from 13.50m bpd the week prior.
  • The number of active US oil rigs was steady at 482, while the US gas rig count rose by one to 103.

Monday Macro: Bumper Crystal Ball Time, Plus the US Equity Bulls Are Still Rampaging

By Adventurous Investor

  • Over the last week, the FTSE ALL World equities index stalled slightly, losing 0.8% in value, with the FTSE ALL Share index losing a tad more, down a smidgeon under 1%.
  • Tech stocks again outperformed, sending the Nasdaq 1.5% higher and taking the index to over 20,000 for the first time ever.
  • The S&P 500 edged 0.5% lower, and the Russell 2000 ended the week 2% down. The Magnificent 7 hit new highs as the market-broadening trend evaporated.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Indosat’s AI, MAPI’s Expansion, and BliBli’s Omnichannel

By Angus Mackintosh


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/50] WTI Gains on China Optimism and Sanction-Driven Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures rose 6.1% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by China’s policy easing plans and supply concerns from sanctions on Russia and Iran.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell 1.15 from 1.24 (06/Dec) last week, as call volume rose by 21.7% WoW while put volume increased by 12.6%.  
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.85 from 0.88 last week. Call OI rose by 7.0% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

Vietnam Sitting Pretty As Global Prices Paint A Rosy October

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • January-October 2024 exports yield US$2.54 billion, up 17% YoY
  • 405% rise in value YoY in exports to Malaysia during Jan-Oct 2024
  • Michelin plans to source rice husks from Vietnam for tire-making

PMIs Serve A Festive Party

By Phil Rush

  • Flash PMIs for December broadly exceeded expectations in the services sector, with the UK and EA rebounding and the US surging to highs more consistent with hikes than cuts.
  • A slight trend rise in the US unemployment rate suggests strength is partly structural but could be noise around cyclical strength. Global rates still don’t look tight.
  • We still expect persistent underlying price and wage inflation to truncate easing cycles earlier than most expect, following the norm for cuts without recessions, like in 1998.

Syria, The World And Markets

By Alastair Newton

  • The Syrian civil war has consequences that extend far beyond its immediate vicinity.
  • The potential collapse of the Assad regime could significantly impact global issues, including the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
  • This collapse could also affect Germany’s debt ceiling reform prospects and the oil industry.

United Kingdom Economy – December 3, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • The UK economy has recently shown signs of stabilizing after a period of stagnation, with a modest uptick in household spending and business investment.
  • Government spending and public investment have also provided a temporary boost, contributing to a more positive short-term outlook.
  • Nevertheless, multiple risks persist as geopolitical tensions, volatile energy markets, and uncertain global trade conditions continue to threaten stability, while changes in foreign economic policies could weigh on business and consumer sentiment.

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Daily Brief Australia: S&P/ASX 200, Canyon Resources, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | ASX 200 Presents a High-Probability Buy-The-Dip Opportunity
  • Canyon Resources – Breaking down the investment case
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles


EQD | ASX 200 Presents a High-Probability Buy-The-Dip Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P/ASX 200 INDEX it’s currently trending up quite well, since October 2023. The current rally picked up some steam from July 2024 and is quite steady. 
  • The index started to pull back 2 weeks ago and has closed 2 consecutive weeks down and this week started with a Monday down Close.
  • Our models show a clear opportunity to buy this dip and ride the index uptrend back to >3% profit target, roughly a 3-weeks movement according to our forecast.

Canyon Resources – Breaking down the investment case

By Edison Investment Research

Canyon Resources, an ASX-listed exploration and development company, is advancing the high-grade, large-scale Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon. Minim Martap, a feasibility-stage project, is set to become an important independent source of low-cost bauxite for the fast-growing seaborne market. While we are planning to initiate full coverage of Canyon Resources soon, in this note we focus on the key elements of the company’s investment case – attractive project economics, favourable bauxite market fundamentals and supportive cornerstone shareholder.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

By Pranay Yadav

  • Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. 
  • Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.
  • Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.

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Daily Brief Thailand: CP Axtra and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Cp Axtra – CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project


Cp Axtra – CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

  • Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate increase in interest expenses from higher debt.
  • However, revenue generation is expected to begin in 2Q26E. Medium-term risks may arise from intensified competition in the same area, but the long-term prospects are positive for CPAXT, as the project could provide stable income if executed as planned.
  • Maintain a Neutral recommendation: The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals (the stock price sees 2.4% downside risk from its fair value) and the long- term growth prospects (profit growth expected at a 14% CAGR over the next two years). 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Mobis, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 09 – 13


KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX updated the Value-Up Index with five new names: KB Financial, Hana Financial, KT Corp, SK Telecom, and Hyundai Mobis, with Mobis replacing JB Financial, surprising the market.
  • This is the first rebalancing, packed into one day, so expect notable price action. Reverse moves could also follow Thursday as pre-positioned trades unwind, so monitor price action closely.
  • Even after Thursday’s rebalancing, half of the funds, especially from the National Pension Service, will flow into high-yield stocks, likely driving significant price moves through early next year.

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 09 – 13

By John Ley

  • Risk reward for owning implied vol has shifted to the long side here given spot/vol dynamics and limited vol upside since market peaked 17% higher.
  • Strong price action after a soggy start to the week sees a significant portion of open interest cleared out.
  • Largest open interest is at the 300 strike with ~ 42k Put contracts outstanding.

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Daily Brief Singapore: DBS, Geo Energy Resources, CapitaLand Investment /Sing, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Tuan Sing CEO and director add to stakes
  • Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28
  • REIT Watch – S-Reits’ secondary fundraising rebounds in 2024; more may tap capital markets next year
  • Vietnam Sitting Pretty As Global Prices Paint A Rosy October


Tuan Sing CEO and director add to stakes

By Geoff Howie

  • Over the five trading sessions from Dec 6 to Dec 12, institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, leading to a net institutional outflow of S$104 million, reversing a quarter of the S$418 million net inflow over the preceding five sessions.
  • Stocks that led the net institutional outflow over the five sessions through to Dec 12 were DBS Group Holdings, Capitaland Investment, SATS, Singapore Exchange, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Capitaland Integrated Comm Trust, Genting Singapore, Capitaland Ascendas REIT, Singapore Telecommunications and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust.
  • The five trading sessions saw more than 50 director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for close to 25 primary-listed stocks.

Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

By Sameer Taneja

  • We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
  • For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
  • Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and >30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 

REIT Watch – S-Reits’ secondary fundraising rebounds in 2024; more may tap capital markets next year

By Geoff Howie

  • 5 Largest S-REITs’ equity fundraising in 2024-to-date Date Announced Gross Proceeds (S$m unless otherwise) Main use of proceeds CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust 3-Sep 1,108 Acquisition 19-Nov 1,086 Acquisition Elsewhere, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) also carried out a billion-dollar EFR this year, raising S$1.1 billion in September, comprising a S$350.3 million private placement and S$757.2 million preferential offering.

Vietnam Sitting Pretty As Global Prices Paint A Rosy October

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • January-October 2024 exports yield US$2.54 billion, up 17% YoY
  • 405% rise in value YoY in exports to Malaysia during Jan-Oct 2024
  • Michelin plans to source rice husks from Vietnam for tire-making

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Indosat Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist


Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A conversation with Indosat (ISAT IJ) managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel’s recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. 
  • 2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. 
  • Indosat‘s move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp‘s GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.

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Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, SHEIN, BYD Electronics, Tencent, Hang Seng Index, Air China Ltd (H), Herbs Generation Group Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025
  • 2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia
  • BYD Electronics (285 HK): Earnings Bottoming Out in 4Q24, EV and Data Center Driving Growth in 2025
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13
  • EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI December 09-13
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Five Easy Charts Showing China’s Tourism Recovery To Date
  • Pre-IPO Herbs Generation Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
  • We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia next year. 
  • This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in Asia in 2025.
  • Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, LG Electronics India, Shein, Sony Financial Group, Didi Global, and Okada Manila.

BYD Electronics (285 HK): Earnings Bottoming Out in 4Q24, EV and Data Center Driving Growth in 2025

By John Liu

  • BYD Electronics benefits from two key growth drivers in 2025: a cyclical upswing in its legacy EMS business, and sustained strong growth in auto electronics and AI data cooling devices.
  • Earnings momentum is expected to pick up in 4Q, with key segments entering an earning upcycle. Expect bottomline growth to accelerate to 45% in 2025 from 9% in 2024.
  • The 13x 2025 PE multiple does not capture BYDE’s transformation from a low-end, cyclical EMS to a leading high-precision manufacturer with a more diverse and balanced set of growth drivers.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

By John Ley

  • Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.
  • Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.
  • Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI December 09-13

By John Ley

  • Both HSI and HSCEI show characteristics of being short gamma at higher strikes highlighted by Mondays pop in spot and vol in both markets.
  • Implied vol did a complete round-trip closing virtually unchanged from last week despite spot holding on to modest gains on the week and large high – low range.
  • Up-Strike Calls look to have been added in both markets which will help maintain the positive spot vol correlation.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Five Easy Charts Showing China’s Tourism Recovery To Date

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we chart the progress of China’s tourism recovery vs pre-pandemic levels
  • In October 2024, Chinese outbound (international) demand finally reached pre-Covid levels
  • The recovery in domestic activity was completed earlier and more quickly than outbound

Pre-IPO Herbs Generation Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Performance declined sharply in 24H1 mainly due to the decrease in orders from Customer A. Herbs Generation’s business/financial performance would be easily affected if the contributions from Customer A decline.
  • Current sales model of Herbs Generation is hard to change, and the Company still has to invest heavily in offline marketing and promotional efforts, but the efficiency is not high.
  • Herbs Generation’s ability to resist risks is relatively weak, which prevents us from building optimistic expectations for sustainable growth in the future. Valuation should be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief United States: Broadcom , Blackrock Inc, Alphabet , Stripe, UiPath Inc, Crude Oil, Coinbase Global , Signet Jewelers, Wayfair Inc Class A, Exxon Mobil and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff
  • Infrastructure mini-series Ep 1: The Growing Demand For Infrastructure Investment
  • Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024
  • 2025 IPOs Pipeline (USA, Europe, and the Middle East)
  • UiPath Inc.: These Are The 5 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers
  • US Rig Count Steady After Strong Surge Last Week
  • 2025 High Conviction: Coinbase – What Doesn’t Kill You, Makes You Stronger
  • Signet Jewelers Limited: Can Its Strategic Capital Allocation Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
  • Wayfair Inc (W) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024
  • Exxon Mobil’s Bold New Strategy: A Game Changer or a Risky Bet?


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

By Brian Freitas


Infrastructure mini-series Ep 1: The Growing Demand For Infrastructure Investment

By The Bid

  • Infrastructure is crucial for the transition to a low carbon economy and the advancement of the economy, requiring urgent repairs to aging infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and airports.
  • Private capital plays a key role in investing in infrastructure assets, with a focus on operational improvements and creating value for investors.
  • The growing demand for investment in infrastructure, especially in the areas of AI and data centers, presents significant opportunities for private sector funding and operational enhancements.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has been consistently undervalued in the market despite strong revenue and earnings growth
  • The company’s average forward P/E multiple over the past 15+ years has been just 21.7x, even though it has consistently outperformed the S&P 500
  • Currently trading at a discounted valuation of around 17x 2025E EPS, Alphabet has been mispriced for most of its 20-year history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


2025 IPOs Pipeline (USA, Europe, and the Middle East)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in the USA, Europe, and the Middle East that could complete their IPOs in 2025.
  • This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in these regions in 2025.
  • Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in these regions next year include Starlink, SpaceX, Stripe, Open AI, Klarna, Five Holdings, Monzo, and Ethiad Airways.

UiPath Inc.: These Are The 5 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • UiPath reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, surpassing its guidance on all crucial financial metrics.
  • The company concluded the quarter with an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $1.607 billion, marking a 17% increase driven by a net new ARR of $56 million.
  • Quarterly revenue reached $355 million, and the company achieved a non-GAAP operating income of $50 million.

US Rig Count Steady After Strong Surge Last Week

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged at 589 for the week ending on 13/Dec, after rising by seven the previous week.
  • For the week ending 06/Dec, US oil production rose to a new high of 13.63m bpd from 13.50m bpd the week prior.
  • The number of active US oil rigs was steady at 482, while the US gas rig count rose by one to 103.

2025 High Conviction: Coinbase – What Doesn’t Kill You, Makes You Stronger

By Alec Tseung

  • Coinbase has managed to weather the crypto winter well by reporting net profits consecutively for 4 quarters.
  • Its share price has shot up recently as the whole crypto market became exuberant, thanks to Trump’s re-election, but still below the IPO debut price of $381.
  • Our thesis remains the same as when the stock was trading as low as ~$68 in May 2022: Coinbase to become an indispensable platform for Web 3, esp. first-time users.

Signet Jewelers Limited: Can Its Strategic Capital Allocation Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Signet Jewelers’ third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report presents a nuanced outlook on the company’s current standing and its future trajectory.
  • The company has demonstrated a mixed performance, showing improvements in certain areas while encountering challenges in others.
  • One of the notable positives from the report is Signet’s continued sales momentum, as indicated by the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential same-store sales improvement, despite an overall decline of 0.7% in same store sales.

Wayfair Inc (W) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Wayfair has 4k primary customers and multiple brands under their umbrella
  • Their business model involves offering a wide selection of furniture and home goods at competitive prices
  • Wayfair is positioned to benefit from current market conditions and has potential for growth and profitability in the coming years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Exxon Mobil’s Bold New Strategy: A Game Changer or a Risky Bet?

By Baptista Research

  • In a recent special call arranged by the management, Exxon Mobil has unveiled an ambitious strategy that could reshape its future and redefine its standing in the energy sector.
  • Despite concerns about falling oil prices and industry-wide cautious spending, Exxon is doubling down on capital-intensive projects while expanding into emerging markets like carbon capture, hydrogen production, and advanced battery materials.
  • The company’s bold moves include acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion, ramping up investments in the Permian Basin, and launching data-center-specific natural gas projects equipped with carbon capture technology.

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