Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)‘s EGM and Court Meeting on the 22 January, the focus has shifted to Loyal Valley Capital (LVC)’s continued buying in the market.
After the close of market last Friday, LVC held 7.8295%, above the 7.826% blocking stake. That % was as at 9th January. I assume LVC are still buying.
Yet if you analyse how LVC has traded in and out of Henlius, they are not in it to block. They’re in for the back-end scrip option.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.

Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions.
I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.

Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved.
Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.

Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap

Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.

Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Sits On A Blocking Stake. And Me (Maybe) Eating Humble Pie

I was wrong. Loyal Valley Capital (LVC) have stopped buying Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK) – or have not bought since reaching a blocking stake of 7.8295% on the 9th January.
LVC could either use that stake as leverage to negotiate with the Offeror on the scrip terms. Or blow up the deal and pick up shares after the deal breaks
OR perhaps, as per my initial impression, LVC tenders. And they may still do that. It should be this straightforward; but the fact that it is not raises questions.

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

KRX H1 SSF Reshuffle: Play Setup from Last Round’s Learning Curve

By Sanghyun Park

Last time, price action showed up a week early, suggesting market makers are getting ahead, likely due to learning effects.
This round’s a letdown—no KOSDAQ names and fewer plays. Still, lower-volume KOSPI names showed solid price action correlation in the last reshuffle.
This round, focus on low-volume KOSPI names, enter 5 days before the listing, and exit just before it drops, using the learning curve from the last reshuffle.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.
In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.

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Jan 15

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Miwon Commercial, Apcotex Industries, US Energy , SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Natural Gas, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, Allegiant Gold and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

KRX H1 SSF Reshuffle: Play Setup from Last Round’s Learning Curve
The Beat Ideas: Apcotex Industries Ltd, Beaten Down Value Pick
USEG: U.S. Energy acquires additional industrial gas acreage in the Kevin Dome structure in Montana. The company also announced the divesture of certain oil & gas properties in Texas.
New Year Marks Revival In Indian Synthetic Rubber Market
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/02] Henry Hub Surges on Expectations of Robust Heating Demand
[SGX Iron Ore Weekly 2025/02] Bearish Sentiments Softening as Vols Trend Lower
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/02] WTI Rises for Third Straight Week Due to Supply Disruptions
AUAU: Plans to Target Deep High-Grade Zone

KRX H1 SSF Reshuffle: Play Setup from Last Round’s Learning Curve

By Sanghyun Park

Last time, price action showed up a week early, suggesting market makers are getting ahead, likely due to learning effects.
This round’s a letdown—no KOSDAQ names and fewer plays. Still, lower-volume KOSPI names showed solid price action correlation in the last reshuffle.
This round, focus on low-volume KOSPI names, enter 5 days before the listing, and exit just before it drops, using the learning curve from the last reshuffle.

The Beat Ideas: Apcotex Industries Ltd, Beaten Down Value Pick

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Apcotex Industries (APCO IN) promoted by Ex-Asian Paints MD Mr. Atul Choksey, is a leading manufacturer of synthetic rubber and latex in India.
Despite achieving record sales volume in H1 FY25, Apcotex experienced a decline in EBITDA margins due to RM pricing and Chinese competition.
Apcotex Industries (APCO IN) is at its worst possible margins and applied for anti-dumping duty for its product.

USEG: U.S. Energy acquires additional industrial gas acreage in the Kevin Dome structure in Montana. The company also announced the divesture of certain oil & gas properties in Texas.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

U.S. Energy (NASDAQ: USEG) is an independent energy company historically focused on the acquisition and development of oil and natural gas producing properties in the U.S. In June 2024, the company acquired acreage in Montana with the goal of extracting and marketing helium products and other industrial gases.
Going forward, the primary focus will be on the development and operation of helium and other industrial gases, along with the development of carbon sequestration capabilities.
The company has no debt and $21.15 million in available liquidity.

New Year Marks Revival In Indian Synthetic Rubber Market

By Vinod Nedumudy

Highlights · Auto non-tire and tire sectors stage better show from Dec · Indian SR consumption goes up by 10.5% YoY in FY 2024-25 H1 · Atma Nirbhar Bharat making cushioning effect on imports The Indian Synthetic Rubber (SR) sector is reviving in the New Year after the lull until early December, with downstream tire and auto sector demand picking up, leading to a markup in the prices of certain variants.
The players in the sector are optimistic about the momentum persisting until the end of the financial year in March 2025.
The SBR prices, which were INR 190/kg on November 1, sharply fell to INR 175/kg by December but are picking up in the new year and have crossed INR 180/kg in early January.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/02] Henry Hub Surges on Expectations of Robust Heating Demand

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 10/Jan, U.S. natural gas prices surged by 18.9% led by cold weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, supply disruptions, and declining inventories.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.29 from 1.37 (03/Jan) the previous week as call volumes rose by 40.3% WoW, while put volumes grew by 32.7%.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.92 from 0.87 compared to last week. Call OI inched up by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 10.5%.

[SGX Iron Ore Weekly 2025/02] Bearish Sentiments Softening as Vols Trend Lower

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing $0.4/ton higher by 10/Jan (Fri).
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Feb contract trades 24.6% below its last 5-year average ($128.93/ton).
IO prices gained 3% in the 10 trading days leading to CNY. IO prices rises 4.4% over the next 5 days before shedding 5% over the following five.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/02] WTI Rises for Third Straight Week Due to Supply Disruptions

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures rose 3.5% for the week ending 10/Jan, driven by tightening U.S. sanctions on Russian crude oil and bullish U.S. economic data.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 0.83 from 1.03 (03/Jan) last week, as call volume surged by 128.3% WoW while put volume increased by 82.9%.
WTI OI PCR rose to 0.94 from 0.93 last week. Call OI climbed up by 7.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 8.5%.

AUAU: Plans to Target Deep High-Grade Zone

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • Allegiant announced plans to drill the High-Grade Zone at McIntosh by way of a 2,000-3,000m diamond drill program.
2021 highlights in this area include 39 g/t Au over 3m & 2.6 g/t Au over 148m.
• AUAU also announced disappointing results from its exploratory RC drill program at Eastside, however, there were some positive takeaways.

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Jan 15

Daily Brief Utilities: Dala Energi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Dala Energi (OM:DE) – Monday, Oct 14, 2024

Dala Energi (OM:DE) – Monday, Oct 14, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Dala Energi is facing a bid from Nordion Energi for a complex transaction, offering significant upside potential
Dala Energi has seen a 94% increase in share price year-to-date, with at least a 23% potential upside remaining
The transaction is expected to be completed by summer 2025, providing an annualized return above 23% based on conservative assumptions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Jan 15

Daily Brief Industrials: Jamco Corp, Tokyo Metro, S&P 500 INDEX, J&T Global Express , Renewi, Marco Polo Marine, Clean Energy Technologies , NEXTracker , Shin Pro Maint and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback
ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue
Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline
Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine
Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.
Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers
Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap

Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal

Jamco Corp (7408 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY1,800 per share, a 27.8% premium to the last close.
The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in mid-February, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges.
On the other hand, the offer is light as it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the modest required acceptance rate suggests a done deal.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

By Joe Jasper

Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but…
…we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
Looking for support on the S&P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

By Daniel Hellberg

Q424 volume growth for J&T’s two main segments accelerated — but how’d they do it?
In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
We believe J&T’s volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs

Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Macquarie’s final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
The offer aligns closely with Renewi’s intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.

Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine

By Geoff Howie

Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
Energy Technology (14.0% of the index) was down 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 1.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.4% of index) was down 5.3%.
Top 10 Performers: SPI, BNRG, AZRE, ARVL, TGEN, ARBE, EGT, GP, GCEI, PSI

Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

Nextracker’s recent earnings highlight a mix of positive developments and some areas of caution for potential investors in the solar tracking industry.
The company has reported another strong quarter with double-digit revenue growth for the seventh consecutive time, underscoring robust operational execution and strong demand for its products across various markets.
With a significant revenue increase of 29% year-over-year for the first half of fiscal 2025, Nextracker has demonstrated its ability to capture market share effectively.

Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 14.7% YoY to JPY19.9bn, driven by strong performance in Emergency and Preventive Maintenance Services.
Operating profit rose 28.8% YoY to JPY1.4bn, with an operating profit margin of 7.1%, up 0.8pp YoY.
Year-end dividend forecast revised to JPY32.0 per share, up JPY4.0, reflecting improved business performance for FY02/25.

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Jan 15

Daily Brief Industrials: Jamco Corp, Tokyo Metro, S&P 500 INDEX, J&T Global Express , Renewi, Marco Polo Marine, Clean Energy Technologies , NEXTracker , Shin Pro Maint and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback
ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue
Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline
Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine
Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.
Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers
Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap

Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal

Jamco Corp (7408 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY1,800 per share, a 27.8% premium to the last close.
The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in mid-February, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges.
On the other hand, the offer is light as it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the modest required acceptance rate suggests a done deal.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

By Joe Jasper

Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but…
…we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
Looking for support on the S&P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

By Daniel Hellberg

Q424 volume growth for J&T’s two main segments accelerated — but how’d they do it?
In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
We believe J&T’s volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs

Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Macquarie’s final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
The offer aligns closely with Renewi’s intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.

Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine

By Geoff Howie

Company Spotlight: Marco Polo Marine

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Clean Energy Technologies, Inc.

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
Energy Technology (14.0% of the index) was down 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 1.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.4% of index) was down 5.3%.
Top 10 Performers: SPI, BNRG, AZRE, ARVL, TGEN, ARBE, EGT, GP, GCEI, PSI

Nextracker Inc.: The Expansion in International Markets & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

Nextracker’s recent earnings highlight a mix of positive developments and some areas of caution for potential investors in the solar tracking industry.
The company has reported another strong quarter with double-digit revenue growth for the seventh consecutive time, underscoring robust operational execution and strong demand for its products across various markets.
With a significant revenue increase of 29% year-over-year for the first half of fiscal 2025, Nextracker has demonstrated its ability to capture market share effectively.

Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 14.7% YoY to JPY19.9bn, driven by strong performance in Emergency and Preventive Maintenance Services.
Operating profit rose 28.8% YoY to JPY1.4bn, with an operating profit margin of 7.1%, up 0.8pp YoY.
Year-end dividend forecast revised to JPY32.0 per share, up JPY4.0, reflecting improved business performance for FY02/25.

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Jan 15

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Suven Pharmaceuticals, Mani Inc, UMP Healthcare, Lantheus Holdings, Soligenix , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Sits On A Blocking Stake. And Me (Maybe) Eating Humble Pie
Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break
Suven Pharmaceuticals (SUVENPHA IN): M&A to Expand Technical Capabilities and Enhance Scale
Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Loosing Shine In China; Margins Eroding; FY25 Guidance Reiterated
UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Earnings Preview for H1 FY25
LNTH: LMI Acquisition and NeuraCeq
SNGX: Additional Positive Outcomes in Investigator-Initiated Study of HyBryte in CTCL
Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Sits On A Blocking Stake. And Me (Maybe) Eating Humble Pie

I was wrong. Loyal Valley Capital (LVC) have stopped buying Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK) – or have not bought since reaching a blocking stake of 7.8295% on the 9th January.
LVC could either use that stake as leverage to negotiate with the Offeror on the scrip terms. Or blow up the deal and pick up shares after the deal breaks
OR perhaps, as per my initial impression, LVC tenders. And they may still do that. It should be this straightforward; but the fact that it is not raises questions.

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.

Suven Pharmaceuticals (SUVENPHA IN): M&A to Expand Technical Capabilities and Enhance Scale

By Tina Banerjee

Suven Pharmaceuticals (SUVENPHA IN) is acquiring56% equity share capital of ADC/XDC-focused CRDMO, NJ Bio for $64M, strengthening position in a high growth market.
In June 2024, Suven announced the acquisition of a majority stake in an oligonucleotide focused CDMO player, Sapala Organics, thereby adding another high-growth complex technology to its CDMO business.
Recently, shareholders have approved Suven’s merger with Cohance Lifesciences. Cohance has global leadership in select low-mid volume molecules as well as unique capabilities in the form of its ADC platform.

Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Loosing Shine In China; Margins Eroding; FY25 Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

Mani Inc (7730 JP) Q1FY25 revenue rose 8% YoY, mainly driven by surgical and eyeless needles segments, and favorable foreign exchange. However, profitability declined year-over-year.
Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Dental segment contributes more than 30% of total revenue.
Mani shares plunged 20% since it published its Q1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Earnings Preview for H1 FY25

By Sameer Taneja

UMP Healthcare (722 HK) will report its results in late February. We estimate low single-digit revenue growth of 3% YoY, in line with the past two semiannuals.
We flagged cost-cutting initiatives in UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong and Webinar Updates, which would result in 25% YoY profit growth.
Trading at 6.4x FY25e PE, with a 10% dividend yield and 85% of the market capitalization in net cash and investments, the stock has the potential to double.

LNTH: LMI Acquisition and NeuraCeq

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (LNTH)

SNGX: Additional Positive Outcomes in Investigator-Initiated Study of HyBryte in CTCL

By Zacks Small Cap Research

On January 14, 2025, Soligenix, Inc. (SNGX) announced additional interim data from the open-label, investigator-initiated study (IIS) testing HyBryte treatment in patients with cutaneous T cell lymphoma (CTCL) for up to 12 months.
Thus far, nine patients have been enrolled and treated with HyBryte for up to 54 weeks.
Over 80% (5/6 that have completed at least 18 weeks of therapy) have already achieved treatment success, which is defined in the study protocol as a =50% improvement in the cumulative mCAILS.

Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hengrui plans to IPO in Hong Kong, but it hasn’t yet completed the business transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs, and is still facing the negative impact of VBP.
The key point is whether the innovative drug business has sustained high enough growth rate to offset the decline in generic drug business so as to support the high valuation.
Hengrui is overvalued in A-Share. We think Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene (6160 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) in Hong Kong stock market.

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✓ Personalised Alerts
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Jan 15

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung Electronics, Shift Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Toyota Motor, Money Forward , WingArc1st Inc, Silicon Laboratories, Allegro.eu and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Samsung Electronics’ Key Inflection Point: Lee Jae-Yong’s Final Appeal Ruling on February 3
Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale
Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jan-2025): China’s semiconductor bankruptcies mount.
Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Growth Engine Shows Resilience
WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
Silicon Labs: An Insight Into Its Recent Design Win Ramps & Market Share Growth!
ALE PW – What’s News in Amsterdam – 14 January 2025 (Ahold Delhaize | Philips | InPost / Allegro)

Samsung Electronics’ Key Inflection Point: Lee Jae-Yong’s Final Appeal Ruling on February 3

By Sanghyun Park

Some speculate Samsung might delay the value-up announcement until after the February 3 ruling, using it strategically to influence the verdict and align with the appeal’s outcome.
Market chatter even surrounds Samsung’s HBM test delays with NVIDIA, with some linking it to Lee Jae-yong’s February 3 appeal ruling—though it seems more like speculative conspiracy.
If Lee Jae-yong wins his appeal on February 3, it could trigger key events like value-up disclosure and HBM pass, significantly impacting Samsung’s short-term price action and positions.

Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale

By Douglas Kim

In the past several years, one of the biggest risk factors on Samsung Electronics and other Samsung Group affiliates has been the huge inheritance tax payments by the Lee family.
Despite the weak share price performances of the four major Samsung Group affiliates, their consolidated equity increased by 31.4% on average from end of 2019 to end of 3Q 2024.
Once Lee family pays off the fifth installment in 2025, the market could look upon this situation more favorably due to reduced overhang associated with additional future inheritance tax payments.

Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%

By Michael Allen

Shift reported a 95% increase in OP, to ¥3.2bn, compared to consensus estimate of ¥2.6bn on January 14 after the close.
Just under 5 months ago, we suggested the stock was about 45% undervalued. It is up 40%.
We still expect 20% annual growth through 2030. This is no longer a turnaround stock, but now one of the most solid growth stocks in the market.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say.

By Patrick Liao

There is a great opportunity for someone joining an advanced semiconductor manufacturing camp because there could be fewer players in the field.
For a long time, TSMC production staff have won better bonuses in the company, meaning they might be able to overcome the difficulties in production.
Rapidus might need another 5 years or more to become profitable if everything runs smoothly for 2nm technology.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jan-2025): China’s semiconductor bankruptcies mount.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

China’s semiconductor industry faces devastation with 10,000 companies going bankrupt and hiring coming to a halt.
Biden shifts chip strategy favoring TSMC over Intel as his term nears end, signaling a change in approach.
Advancements in technology may soon make ‘one robot per household’ a reality, with AI chip export ban discussions ongoing.

Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Growth Engine Shows Resilience

By Mark Chadwick

Money Forward, Japan’s leading SaaS provider, reported strong results for its fiscal year ending November 2024: Sales +33% YoY to ¥40.4 billion
FY11/25 EBITDA guidance of ¥3.5 billion significantly lags consensus expectations of ¥6 billion.
The disappointing EBITDA guidance may trigger further selling, but there is no material change to the company’s long-term fundamentals. Time to be bullish

WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Revenue for cumulative Q3 FY02/25 was JPY21.6bn, operating profit JPY6.5bn, net income JPY4.7bn, EBITDA JPY7.6bn.
BDS sales revenue rose 12.7% YoY to JPY14.2bn, with cloud services growing 17.3% YoY, invoiceAgent JPY1.7bn.
Full-year FY02/25 forecast revised to revenue JPY28.5bn, operating profit JPY8.1bn, EBITDA JPY9.6bn, profit JPY5.9bn.

Silicon Labs: An Insight Into Its Recent Design Win Ramps & Market Share Growth!

By Baptista Research

Silicon Laboratories delivered mixed results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024.
The company’s revenue reached $166 million, which marked a 14% sequential increase, although it was down 18% year-over-year due to persisting issues related to excess inventory among distributors and end customers.
Despite this decline, Silicon Laboratories managed to surpass the midpoint of its revenue guidance, signaling some resilience in its business operations amidst broader market challenges.

ALE PW – What’s News in Amsterdam – 14 January 2025 (Ahold Delhaize | Philips | InPost / Allegro)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | agrees to buy Delfood • Philips | another challenging year for Philips’ sales in China; software problem detected • InPost / Allegro | Temu close to taking over Allegro’s position as market leader in Poland

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Jan 15

Daily Brief Consumer: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, IndiQube Spaces Ltd, Guess? Inc, Pointerra Ltd, Sapporo Holdings, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A, Create Sd Holdings Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
IndiQube Spaces Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
GES: ICR Conference Notes: Focused on Winning LT: Reiterate Buy and $23 PT
US$2m contract extension underlines Pointerra3D benefit
The Good News Is that Companies May Change in Less than 17 Years!
AKA: ICR Conference Notes: A Holiday Winner; Raising Projections, Reiterate Buy
Create Sd Holdings Co (3148 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.
In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.

IndiQube Spaces Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

IndiQube Spaces Ltd (1628202D IN) (ISL) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are ICICI and JM fin.
IndiQube Spaces Limited (ISL) is a managed workplace solutions provider offering technological workplace solutions.
According to CBRE Report, ISL is among the leading operators in Bengaluru as of Jun 24.

GES: ICR Conference Notes: Focused on Winning LT: Reiterate Buy and $23 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for GUESS?
Inc. after meeting with management at the 2025 ICR Conference.
We believe management is highly focused on returning Guess?

US$2m contract extension underlines Pointerra3D benefit

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

RaaS has published a flash comment on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following the announcement that that it has been awarded a US$2.0m (A$3.2m) contract extension by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the existing programme modelling a range of electric grid resilience investment scenarios by electric utilities.
We view the contract extension, which brings total spend to date by the DOE to US$3.63m, as important validation of Pointerra3D’s benefit to the US electric utility sector.
The company says it expects the programme to be completed by 31 December 2025.

The Good News Is that Companies May Change in Less than 17 Years!

By Aki Matsumoto

After 17 years of failure to change, Sapporo’s policy change was triggered by the fact that sales in beer business were beginning to recover after the long tunnel of deflation.
Regulators, weighed down by the growing number of companies with low profitability and declining competitiveness, want to change the situation, even if it means leveraging the power of activist investors.
Many companies bottomed out due to exiting the deflationary economy, and TSE requests prohibit companies from ignoring investors’ proposals, which makes it easier for companies to change.

AKA: ICR Conference Notes: A Holiday Winner; Raising Projections, Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target and raising our projections for a.k.a. Brands after the company updated 4Q24 guidance, removed the interim title from CEO Ciaran Long, announced the expansion of Petal & Pup into all Nordstrom doors, and presented at the ICR Conference.
With the majority of the 4Q upside catalysts flowing into 2025, the company on track to launch their first New York City store in 1H25 and the potential for stabilization in the still significant Australian market, we believe our slightly raised 2025 projections remain conservative, and we reiterate or Buy rating and $30 price target for AKA.

Create Sd Holdings Co (3148 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update

Revenue increased to JPY224.8bn (+8.4% YoY), with gross profit at JPY58.2bn (+7.9% YoY) and operating profit at JPY10.5bn (+6.2% YoY).
The company opened 23 drugstores and 15 in-store dispensing pharmacies, while closing two stores, enhancing operational capacity.
Environmental management initiatives included installing solar panels and starting operations at a new logistics center.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 15

Daily Brief Financials: Avjennings Ltd, Shimao Property Holdings, Yuexiu Property and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal
Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Jan-2025): NTT secures banks for $1B SG data centre REIT.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal