Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.

2025 High Conviction Update: TransMedics, Cut Long Exposure and Move To the Sidelines

By Andrei Zakharov

TransMedics Group stock surged ~20% on blowout 1Q’25 earnings on Friday after the company beat earnings expectations and hiked 2025 revenue guidance.
I launched coverage of the stock in November 2024 and added TransMedics Group to my high conviction list of ideas.
TransMedics Group shares have massively outperformed in 2025 with shares up ~79% over the year. I acknowledge limited upside and lower my PT to $118 on peer-group multiple compression.

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May 11

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 9th): Meituan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 9th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 9th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, CSPC Pharma.

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May 11

Daily Brief ESG: With Transitional Measures Ending and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

With Transitional Measures Ending, Improving the Quality of Existing Listed Companies Will Be Key

With Transitional Measures Ending, Improving the Quality of Existing Listed Companies Will Be Key

By Aki Matsumoto

There are two possible ways to improve the quality of the TSE: one is to exit the market and the other is to improve quality in existing companies.
While few companies are still exiting through de-listing, fewer companies will migrate to other markets going forward, so the quality of existing listed companies must be improved.
Two years after the “TSE’s request,” the number of companies with P/Bs of less than 1x has not yet noticeably decreased, indicating that quality improvement is still a ways off.

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May 11

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [IO Technical 2025/19]: Bearish Signals Persist Despite Brief Rally and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

[IO Technical 2025/19]: Bearish Signals Persist Despite Brief Rally
#144 India Insight: IndusInd Execs in Insider Trade Row, Dabur Eyes M&A, Paytm’s Founder Banned
APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 11)- Shionogi, Daiichi Sankyo, HK Inno, Neuren, Biocon, Aster DM, Lupin

[IO Technical 2025/19]: Bearish Signals Persist Despite Brief Rally

By Amrutha Raj

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $2.45/ton WoW to $98.30/ton, supported by stimulus hopes and US-China trade talks, before facing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band.
Prices remain below major moving averages despite a bullish MACD crossover, with a recent death cross and RSI at 46.83 indicating mixed momentum and limited upside.
Managed Money increased net short positions, while Physicals turned net long; total futures and options open interest dropped 11.14% WoW, signaling reduced overall market participation.

#144 India Insight: IndusInd Execs in Insider Trade Row, Dabur Eyes M&A, Paytm’s Founder Banned

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Grant Thornton’s forensic review finds IndusInd Bank executives traded shares before public disclosure of accounting lapses, raising insider trading concerns.
Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) plans to streamline its portfolio, focus on e-commerce and quick-commerce, and explore M&A in health and wellness.
Vijay Shekhar Sharma, Paytm (PAYTM IN) founder, banned for three years from receiving Esops; settles Sebi case with penalties.

APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 11)- Shionogi, Daiichi Sankyo, HK Inno, Neuren, Biocon, Aster DM, Lupin

By Tina Banerjee

Shionogi is acquiring Torii Pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical business of Japan Tobacco. Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu meets main goal in the neoadjuvant setting (before surgery) in early-stage breast cancer trial.
HK inno.N received approval for the domestic phase 3 clinical trial of obesity drug candidate. Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ Daybue recorded $84.6M revenue in the U.S. in 1Q25, up 11% YoY.
Biocon secured multiple market access agreements for Yesintek, its biosimilar to Stelara. Lupin received FDA approval for antiretroviral agent raltegravir tablets for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) infection.

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May 11

Daily Brief ECM: SHEIN Vs Amazon and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

By Daniel Hellberg

Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns

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May 11

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week
[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light
A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795
Smartpay Faces Potential Buyout with 20% Upside Amid Regulatory Challenges and Strategic Interest from Shift4 Payments
Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by >HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.
3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light

Last year, Nissin Corp (9066 JP) started race-walking the good governance walk. The day they released earnings they announced crossholding sales and an overnight 23.61% ToSTNeT-3 Buyback (executed successfully).
They also expected 19% Net Income Growth (to go with accretion), and in November, nearly doubled their dividend on new payout policy (minimum 4% DOE).
Now, Bloomberg reports they are considering going private via a Bain MBO at ¥100bn+ (or a 30% premium).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

By Special Situation Investments

AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks.
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don’t expect much.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795

By Arun George

Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP) has recommended a MBO tender offer from Shunjiro Nagase (President) at JPY795 per share, a 43.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Irrevocables (55.40% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 12 May to 20 June (30 business days).

Smartpay Faces Potential Buyout with 20% Upside Amid Regulatory Challenges and Strategic Interest from Shift4 Payments

Smartpay received takeover offers, including a cash bid of A$1.11/share from Shift4 Payments, with exclusivity granted.
Regulatory changes threatening surcharging could impact Smartpay’s business model, potentially reducing Australian revenues by 10%.
Market prices a 68% success chance for the A$1.11 offer; potential bidding war exists with multiple interested parties.

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip

By David Blennerhassett

We have a deal in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP). It’s big, liquid, and a great place to hide for long-only investors who are bearish the market.
Li Shufu-backed Geely Auto (175 HK) offers an ordinary 13.6% premium for 65.7-held Zeekr (ZK US). Li/Geely have the necessary votes to force a privatisation. But still might bump terms.
Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Zeekr (ZK US), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), and Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP).

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May 11

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.
Korea Small Cap Gem #33: Shinyoung Wacoal [Real Estate Value Is More Than 5x Market Cap]
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation and Peer Comps
Spotify Bets Big on Audiobooks—Is This the Platform’s Most Disruptive Move Yet?
China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump’s Executive Order, Pharmacy’s Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok
Is YETI The Next Big Buyout? Skechers Deal Sparks Buzz In Wall Street Circles
Nihon Denkei (9908 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy
Pfizer’s $15 Billion War Chest: What Will They Buy After the Danuglipron Failure?
Altria Group: An Insight Into Recent Macroeconomic Pressures & Its Consumer Pricing Strategy!

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

By Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.

Korea Small Cap Gem #33: Shinyoung Wacoal [Real Estate Value Is More Than 5x Market Cap]

By Douglas Kim

A core investment thesis of Shinyoung Wacoal is that its market cap is 94 billion won but its real estate properties in Seoul/Daejeon account for more than 500 billion won.
Shinyoung Wacoal’s net cash as a percentage of market cap is 99%. If the real estate is revalued to market values, it would be trading at P/B of only 0.1x.
Shin Young Wacoal (005800 KS) is one of the largest companies in Korea that specializes in women’s underwear.

Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation and Peer Comps

By Garvit Bhandari

The Company posted strong Q1 2205 results with adjusted EPS (incl. share-based comp) growing 9.3% YOY, adjusted operating margin expanding 70 bps YOY. Excl. share-based comp, adj. EPS was $2.82.
The Company expects margin expansion and double digit adjusted EPS growth for FY 2025.
Sale of Issuer Solutions segment and acqusition of Worldpay will simplify operations and enhance growth. GPN trades at a significant discount to the peer group average.

Spotify Bets Big on Audiobooks—Is This the Platform’s Most Disruptive Move Yet?

Spotify reported its first-quarter 2025 results with decent metrics, yet the numbers failed to satisfy market expectations, leading to a sharp drop in its stock price.
Despite posting a 12% year-over-year increase in premium subscribers to 268 million—exceeding analyst estimates of 265 million—Spotify shares fell 8.7% in early trading to $545.77.
The company also registered 678 million monthly active users, up 10%, broadly meeting expectations.

China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump’s Executive Order, Pharmacy’s Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory “green light” for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.
With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.
BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation is US$24.5-26.5 billion.

Is YETI The Next Big Buyout? Skechers Deal Sparks Buzz In Wall Street Circles

YETI Holdings reported its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, revealing mixed results.
During this period, the company focused on three main areas: accelerating product innovation, transforming supply chain logistics to minimize exposure to China, and enforcing operational discipline to maintain a strong financial position.
Despite a generally positive performance in some aspects, notable challenges were encountered, impacting the company’s financial outlook for the year.

Nihon Denkei (9908 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Nihon Denkei’s FY03/25 consolidated sales grew 11.7% YoY, with a gross profit of JPY16.9bn and operating profit up 6.9% YoY.
The company announced FY03/26 earnings forecast with sales at JPY124.0bn, operating profit at JPY4.5bn, and EPS of JPY263.21.
INNOVATION2030 Ver.2.0 aims for growth by expanding into growth markets and enhancing global business amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.
This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.
Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.

Pfizer’s $15 Billion War Chest: What Will They Buy After the Danuglipron Failure?

Pfizer recently reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, providing an overall positive snapshot of its performance within a challenging market environment.
Revenue was reported at $13.7 billion, marking a 6% operational decline largely driven by lower Paxlovid sales, partly reflecting a one-time Paxlovid revenue credit from the prior year.
Despite this, some of its core products such as the Vyndaqel family, Nurtec, and Padcev demonstrated strong growth, reinforcing the company’s focus on prioritizing key growth drivers.

Altria Group: An Insight Into Recent Macroeconomic Pressures & Its Consumer Pricing Strategy!

Altria Group reported its first-quarter performance for 2025 amidst varying market dynamics.
The company, known primarily for its tobacco products, emphasized robust operations in its Smokeable Products and Oral Tobacco Products segments.
Altria CEO Billy Gifford highlighted that the core traditional tobacco business remained profitable in a challenging environment, and the company’s flagship brand, Marlboro, continued to show resilience despite economic pressures.

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May 11

Daily Brief Macro: The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering

The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering

By Priyanka Kishore

China’s exports to the US dropped $7bn in April from March as the impact of tariffs kicked in.
But its overall exports were barely impacted due to a jump in shipments to the rest of the world.
This should ring a few alarm bells as to how the world will absorb the coming flood of Chinese imports, given Beijing’s struggles to lift consumption at home.

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May 11

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Laopu Gold, S&P/ASX 200, East Buy Holding , Indusind Bank, Tsuruha Holdings, Shionogi & Co, Shanghai Electric Group Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light
ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength
East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle
[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio
CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case
HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience
Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability
A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light

Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May.
The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year.

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

By Nico Rosti

Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June

East Buy Holding (1797 HK) was deleted from the Hang Seng TECH Index in March and could be deleted from the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in June.
There are other ETFs that track the same index (and similar indices), and those trackers will be selling East Buy Holding (1797 HK) too.
There has been some short covering in the stock recently, but short interest is pretty high as a percentage of float. Watch out for short covering that offsets passive selling.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle

With the review period complete, there could be two changes for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) are high probability inclusions while Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Nestle India (NEST IN) are high probability deletions.
Indusind Bank (IIB IN) is also a potential NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) deletion in September and there will be continued pressure on the stock.

[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio

Large Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) investor Orbis Investments last month said they were against the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon’s Oasis buy price from 2024.
Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has apparently come out recommending shareholders vote against. That’s a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.
Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.

CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case

By Arun George

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, has filed its PHIP for an H-Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
I previously discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case and CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
In this note, I examine the latest results and developments outlined in the PHIP. Overall, the PHIP reinforces my positive view.

HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience

By Phil Rush

The BoE and Fed decisions disappointed dovish hopes for action by sensibly waiting to see some signs that easing is appropriate. Caution reduces the risk of a policy mistake.
Inflation in the US, plus unemployment and GDP in the UK, are the scheduled economic highlights for us next week. The UK data may prove more resilient than feared again.
An absence of bad news can allow the good vibes to keep flowing from recent resilient data and trade policy progress, but investors seeking to sleep easy may wish to hedge.

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability

By Tina Banerjee

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) is acquiring Torii Pharmaceutical, as well as the pharmaceutical business of Japan Tobacco and U.S. group company Akros Pharma (sub-subsidiary of Japan Tobacco) for ~¥160B.
With minimum overlap in focus areas, Shionogi believes that the transaction will create a leading company that delivers innovative pharmaceuticals. However, R&D expenses of the combined company will remain elevated.
Considering the promising pipeline, we are hopeful on the long-term growth prospect of the combined company. Shionogi is scheduled to announce FY25 result on May 12.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha