Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.
Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20, a 50.6% premium to the last close price.
The offer is final. While the offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below net cash.
No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and retail seems supportive (lowering the risk of the headcount test). The offer, while light, will likely succeed.

Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

The Paloma-Rheem Tender Offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) was expected to start in early July but is starting 10 weeks earlier. Big win for arbs.
This was going to be a done deal. It didn’t trade rich to terms and it’s tough to see why activists would push when they haven’t pushed for years.
The deal is now trading tight. Long arbs should probably re-allocate. Those hiding their beta here should hide their beta elsewhere.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer

On the 7th March, small-cap property developer Soundwill (878 HK) announced an Offer from Grace Foo (ED) and her family, controlling 74.97% of shares out, by way of a Scheme.
The Offer Price of $8.50/share, including a $1.00/share dividend, was a 62.84% premium to undisturbed. But a 87.66% discount to the (then) most recent NAV. Terms were final.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 23rd May, and payment on or before the 11th June. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair & reasonable”.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has returned with a non-binding proposal for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.
Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.
Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.

Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.
KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares).
Hanwha Ocean’s lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares, this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months.

Fonterra (FCG NZ)’s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

On the 16th May 2024, dairy co-operative Fonterra (FCG NZ) announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.
Last November, Fonterra said it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the “Mainland Group”.
However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with Bega Cheese (BGA AU) should the divestment proceed.

Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.
Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.
Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.

A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Mediobanca’s €6.3bn all-share offer for Banca Generali transforms its strategic profile, shifting focus to wealth management while creating a strong industrial partnership with Generali through a stake divestment.
The deal offers a 4.6% gross spread and an estimated 9.4% annualized return over a six-month timeline, underpinned by €660 million synergies that exceed the acquisition premium.
Shareholder approval remains uncertain due to opposition from major investors Delfin and Caltagirone, making institutional support critical as Mediobanca fends off BMPS’s competing, state-aligned hostile bid.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Macro: EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise
US Bear Market: THE TIDE GOES OUT BEFORE THE TSUNAMI HITS THE SHORE!
Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder
Sentiment Signal in Gold
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
Water Wars: India’s Economic Trump Card in Kashmir Crisis
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise

By Phil Rush

Hard economic data must match gloomy sentiment to justify ECB rate cuts reaching a stimulative setting. The little evidence available so far doesn’t show much of a shock.
Bank lending growth kept rising for companies and households in March as monetary conditions appear to be loosening, not tightening, due to the initial tariff shock.
Activity surveys only softened slightly in services, while inflation expectations are broadly high. Failure to see much more stagflation eases the likelihood that it occurs.

US Bear Market: THE TIDE GOES OUT BEFORE THE TSUNAMI HITS THE SHORE!

By David Mudd

It is the calm before the storm as US markets move up in a bear market rally.
China/US container ship sailings are at a standstill. Tariff effects will start to be felt in US retailers within weeks. Temu and Shein pass tariffs costs to the US consumer.
According to a Deutsche Bank report, foreign buyers of US assets are pulling back quickly. The virtuous cycle turns into a vicious spiral.

Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder

By Manu Bhaskaran

The past weeks have seen multiple geopolitical flashpoints emerge in Asia as various state and non-state actors take increasingly brazen steps to pursue their respective agendas.
The aftermath of the Kashmir terrorist attack has seen New Delhi and Islamabad ramp up retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Beijing is seizing Sandy Clay and intensifying coercive tactics against Taiwan.
An inward-looking Washington and an unready China mean that there are no “adults in the room” who can moderate geopolitical risks, making such flashpoints more dangerous.

Sentiment Signal in Gold

By The Commodity Report

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Water Wars: India’s Economic Trump Card in Kashmir Crisis

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

A limited conflict in Kashmir would have minimal economic impact, as the region is a small part of both economies.
India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty poses a bigger threat to Pakistan’s agriculture and water supply.
India may seek to isolate Pakistan internationally, possibly affecting Pakistan’s IMF bailout and global support.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand

By Pranay Yadav

PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist.
China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.

Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation

By Steven Holden

Rotation is underway in the EM Financial sector, with selling in Brazil Financials funding rotation in to Greece, UAE and Argentinian financials.
Brazil Financials remain an overweight for the majority of EM funds, but conviction is falling, with selling in key names Banco Bradesco and Banco BTG Pactual.
Itau Unibanco Holding remains the flagship holding, owned by 43.7% of funds, though remains well below its 2010 ownership peak.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

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Apr 30

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Laopu Gold, Hanwha Ocean , Toyota Motor, Horizon Robotics, Hanwha Aerospace, Dickson Concepts Intl, PointsBet Holdings , Samsung SDI and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing
Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

By Travis Lundy

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV.
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

By Sanghyun Park

KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

By Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP) in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.
Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

By Sanghyun Park

Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung SDI, Hanwha Ocean , Samsung Electronics, Krafton , S Oil Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean
Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom
Krafton: Acquisition of Controlling Stake in Neptune from Kakao Games
S-Oil: Q1 Base Oils Profit Falls

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

By Sanghyun Park

Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.
KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares).
Hanwha Ocean’s lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares, this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months.

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

By Steven Holden

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.
The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.
Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.

Krafton: Acquisition of Controlling Stake in Neptune from Kakao Games

By Douglas Kim

On 29 April, Krafton announced that it plans to acquire a 39.37% controlling stake in Neptune Company from Kakao Games for 165 billion won ($114.9 million).
Prior to this deal, Krafton owned a 3.2% stake in Neptune. After this deal is completed, Krafton will own a 42.53% stake (19.86 million shares) of Neptune.
Krafton reported excellent results in 1Q 2025. The company beat its sales, operating profit, and net profit by 10.1%, 18.3%, and 13.8%, respectively in 1Q 2025.

S-Oil: Q1 Base Oils Profit Falls

Base oils unit’s Q1 profit falls to lowest in more than four years
Profit margin slides as Group III prices slump faster than feedstock costs
Base oil unit’s Q1 profit contrasts with loss for refining and petchem units

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , Iron Ore, Novonix and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions
[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
NVX: CEO Transition Expected to be Smooth

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.
Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has returned with a non-binding proposal for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.
Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.
Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand

By Pranay Yadav

PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist.
China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.

NVX: CEO Transition Expected to be Smooth

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Novonix Ltd (NVX)

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Singapore: ISDN Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification

10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification

By Geoff Howie

ISDN’s core Industrial Automation segment contributes 94% of revenue, with China accounting for 71% of IA revenue.
Renewable Energy revenue doubled in 1H2024 due to successful commercialisation of three mini-hydropower plants in Indonesia.
ISDN maintains a dividend policy of distributing 25% of net profit attributable to shareholders as dividends.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Indonesia: Cisarua Mountain Dairy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider

By Angus Mackintosh

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) booked a strong start to the year, with sales growing +12% YoY, but dairy was down while premium foods drove higher revenues.
The company continues to drive growth through general trade and Miss Cimory, with plans to continue increasing its reach through more affordable products in both dairy and premium consumer foods.
Cisarua Mountain Dairy‘s strategy to shift the emphasis toward home consumption for consumer foods and an increasing emphasis on affordable products will help to underpin long-term sustainable growth. Valuations attractive.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief India: Adani Green Energy, Syngene International Ltd, Ultratech Cement and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?
Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Nickel Industries
The US equity market rebounded overnight to erase earlier losses in the day. The S&P 500 was up for a fifth straight day (its longest streak since November 2024), albeit at just 0.1%.
In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index plunged to negative 35.8 (-14.1 e / -16.3 p) in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. The survey showed executives describing the situation as “chaos” and “insanity”.

Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN) guided for mid-single digit revenue growth and lower EBITDA margins in FY26, following a mixed performance in FY25.
The moderated outlook is primarily due to the initial operational costs and depreciation from the new US biologics facility and a normalization of inventory levels for a key client.
Focus shifts to the successful integration and ramp-up of new capacities and the potential for underlying growth in key segments to materialize beyond the transient FY26.

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

By Rahul Jain

FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Gold, Base Oil, BP , Aspen Insurance Holdings, Natural Gas, American Integrity Insurance Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
Sentiment Signal in Gold
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

By Nicolas Baratte

Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets

By Nico Rosti

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.

Sentiment Signal in Gold

By The Commodity Report

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

By Suhas Reddy

BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation

By IPO Boutique

A total of 11.0mm shares are being offered with the entirety being offloaded by the sponsor, Apollo Global Securities.
This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Aspen Insurance had gross written premiums of $1.287b vs. $1.231b in the same period in 2024 for an increase of 4.5%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US) was one of two insurance companies to set terms for an IPO on Tuesday morning for a debut next week.
Gross premiums written increased 43.9% to $212.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $147.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.
The underwriting lineup on this sector, led by Keefe Bruyette & Woods, has a strong track record of pricing and placing transactions in this sector.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April

US base oils price premium to VGO/heating oil prices holds steadier after surging in H1 April 2025.
Firmer margins and steady prices coincide with signs of slowdown in shipments to markets like West Africa in April 2025.
Firmer margins and steadier prices coincide with steadier US Group II price discount to imported cargo prices in markets like India.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Dickson Concepts Intl, Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim, Soundwill Holdings, Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, BYD, Green Tea Group, ICBC (H), Amara Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash
Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer
Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing
BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies
Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
ICBC: Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning
Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20, a 50.6% premium to the last close price.
The offer is final. While the offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below net cash.
No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and retail seems supportive (lowering the risk of the headcount test). The offer, while light, will likely succeed.

Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago

By Sumeet Singh

Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) plans to raise up to US$234m via its A/H listing.
HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
In this note, we look at the company’s recent performance and other deal dynamics, as well as valuations.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer