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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Tesla , NIFTY Index, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
  • NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
  • The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

  • A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
  • Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
  • Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

  • The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
  • Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
  • The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

  • A benefit of inflation was expected to shift from management that accumulates cash to management that proactively uses cash. However, it’s been used for shareholder returns but less for apex.
  • Hitachi is one of few companies that manage business in disciplined manner and execute the necessary growth investments. This is more result of overseas investor engagement than corporate governance reform.
  • The key to Japanese equities outperformance is whether management can change to mindset that investors want to see “positive investment and the ability to implement measures to expand corporate value.”

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Apr 19
0

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Northern Star Resources, Fast Retailing, Suzhou Kematek, Nexchip Semiconductor , Chagee Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, SHEIN and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
  • China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying
  • De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
  • CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer
  • Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025
  • Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK). 
  • If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
  • PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
  • Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
  • There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

By Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
  • Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

By Brian Freitas

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
  • Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
  • The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY5,400, representing a 20.0% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY4,500 offer.
  • All the other terms remain unchanged. In response to the revised Yageo offer, the Board will commence a sincere review to determine if the Yageo offer will enhance corporate value. 
  • There is a 50/50 chance that Minebea walks or revises its offer. Yageo’s revised offer is marginally above the midpoint of Minebea IFA’s DCF range, potentially justifying a higher offer.

Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Manishi Raychaudhuri. 

  • The ASEAN region is expected to witness positive economic growth in the coming years, driven by robust domestic demand, increasing foreign investments, and government initiatives to boost economic activities.

  • However, challenges like trade turmoil, poor consumer confidence, and potential deflation need to be addressed to sustain and enhance the markets’ attractiveness. 

Join us as Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri shares his outlook on capital markets across ASEAN, including timely insights on sector trends, policy shifts, and future risks shaping investment opportunities in the ASEAN-6. 

The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 28 April 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri possesses nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan. Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients.

Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, Reuters reported that Shein has received approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for its IPO in London.
  • In February 2025, Reuters reported Shein could cut its valuation in a potential listing to around $50 billion, which would be 24% lower than the previous private market funding round.
  • Tariff war and ending de minimis for shipments from China to US are likely to result in further reduction in the valuation of Shein, much lower than $50 billion. 

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 17th): AIA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 17th): AIA, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 17th): AIA, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 18th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos, Goodman, Coles.

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Private Markets: Elevarm Nets US$4.25M to Boost Smallholder Horticulture Farmers with AI | E27 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Elevarm Nets US$4.25M to Boost Smallholder Horticulture Farmers with AI | E27

Elevarm Nets US$4.25M to Boost Smallholder Horticulture Farmers with AI | E27

By e27

  • Elevarm, an Indonesian agritech startup that aims to enhance the yield and income of smallholder horticulture farmers throughout Indonesia, has raised US$4.25 million in pre-Series A financing led by Intudo.
  • Existing investors Insignia Ventures Partners and 500 Global participated.
  • Founded in 2022, Elevarm specialises in horticulture production and the provision of “high-quality” agricultural inputs, including superior seeds, bio-based fertilisers, and environmentally friendly pest control solutions.

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): #134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • #134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div, Delhivery’s ₹5k Cr Ecom Bet, Adani’s Assam Push
  • Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/04/2025

#134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div, Delhivery’s ₹5k Cr Ecom Bet, Adani’s Assam Push

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Tata Sons will reinvest Rs. 43,900 crore received from TCS dividends into new-age businesses, this strategic capital shift aims to fuel long-term growth across tech, digital, and clean energy sectors.
  • Delhivery is acquiring Ecom Express for Rs. 5,000 crore to expand scale and reduce operating costs in order to strengthen its logistics footprint and improves profitability with low integration risk.
  • Adani Group has proposed Rs. 50,000 crore investments in Assam after talks with CM Sarma. The plan promises major infrastructure upgrades and job creation across the Northeast.

Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

By Andrew Jackson

  • Disco guidance possibly showing front loading ahead of a potentially far bleaker 2Q.
  • US homebuilders strong after DR Horton reported strong GPM despite cutting guidance.
  • Trump re-raising the possibility of fees for Chinese vessels at US ports may be positive for non-Chinese ship builders.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/04/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • Panoro Energy (PEN NO) C ; Target price of NOK47 per share: High production in Gabon – BW Energy reported gross production in Gabon of 39.3 mbbl/d.
  • This equates to 6.9 mbbl/d net to Panoro’s 17.5% WI.
  • Galp Energia (GALP LI): 1Q25 update – 1Q25 production in Brazil was 104 mboe/d.

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief ECM: Explaining the Whole SK Enmove IPO Delay Situation This Morning: SK Innovation Rights Issue Likely and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Explaining the Whole SK Enmove IPO Delay Situation This Morning: SK Innovation Rights Issue Likely
  • Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers
  • IFBH Pte. Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation
  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One
  • Park Medi World Pre-IPO: Some Points Worth Attention

Explaining the Whole SK Enmove IPO Delay Situation This Morning: SK Innovation Rights Issue Likely

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX’s move on SK Enmove this morning ramps up the odds of an SKI rights issue.
  • Timing’s again the key — unlike POSCO Future M, this isn’t a clean setup. Word is SK may wait for H2 rate cuts and a more risk-on market backdrop.
  • So, doesn’t look near-term — likely post-June once local tape firms up. Watch quirky local hot money flows that front-run moves like this.

Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. 
  • Chagee (CG) is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics and added a new peer to compare with  

IFBH Pte. Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • IFBH (IFBH HK)  is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunner for the deal is Citic.
  • IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, focusing on coconut water and plant-based products. Its flagship brand, if, introduced natural coconut water to mainland China, becoming the largest market.
  • As per CIC, IFBH has led mainland China’s coconut water market for five years, holding a 34% share in 2024, while dominating Hong Kong with a 60% share since 2016.

Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, Reuters reported that Shein has received approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for its IPO in London.
  • In February 2025, Reuters reported Shein could cut its valuation in a potential listing to around $50 billion, which would be 24% lower than the previous private market funding round.
  • Tariff war and ending de minimis for shipments from China to US are likely to result in further reduction in the valuation of Shein, much lower than $50 billion. 

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

By IPO Boutique

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) priced a full-size deal of 14.7mm shares at $28.00  (high-end of the range) and Opened at $33.75 for a 20.5% gain.
  • The immediate IPO pipeline is primed and ready to go, however, the current uncertainty in the market due to the everchanging economic winds is forcing companies to bide their time. 
  • Chagee was still able to achieve a desirable outcome by meeting three criteria: Large Anchor orders, Smaller Transaction, Attractive Valuation

Park Medi World Pre-IPO: Some Points Worth Attention

By Tina Banerjee

  • Park Medi World is the second largest private hospital chain in North India with a capacity of 3,000 beds, and the largest private hospital chain in Haryana.
  • The company aims to raise INR9.6B through issuing fresh shares. Founder and Chairman, Dr. Ajit Gupta is the selling shareholder offering shares worth of INR3B for sale.
  • IPO proceeds will be utilized for debt repayment, funding capex for development of new hospital, expansion of existing hospital, and purchase of medical equipment.

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – New Products with a Heavy Hint of AI
  • TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.
  • Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Ahoy! Recovery Ahead
  • A Visit to Inspire Integrated Resort in Incheon, South Korea
  • [Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs
  • [JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil
  • Nauticus Robotics, Inc.: On the Anvil of Commercialization
  • DKSH Malaysia Stable Free Cash Flow Generating Business Available at Attractive Valuations
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 April (Heineken | Basic-Fit | InPost | Sligro Food Group)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

By Patrick Liao

  • Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.
  • Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – New Products with a Heavy Hint of AI

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab hosted “GrabX” in Singapore and online to showcase a range of AI-driven product offerings that promise to be future growth drivers for the company.
  • GrabFood For One and Shared Saver both have the potential to attract significant new business, but there was also the launch of AI-assistant Maya for Merchants to drive orders. 
  • Additionally, Grab Unlimited continues to grow and be transformed into a fully-fledged loyalty program. Valuations are attractive, and Grab is set to make a net profit this year.

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
  • Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
  • The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 

Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Ahoy! Recovery Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Wintermar Offshore Marine booked a strong set of FY2024, confirming the ongoing recovery of the offshore oil & gas shipping segment and especially demand for higher-tier vessels.
  • The company continues to build its fleet with several vessels coming on stream in FY2025 and FY2026, driven by optimism around ongoing investments in offshore oil & gas in Indonesia. 
  • Wintermar Offshore Marine intends to sell its low-tier vessels and invest in more high-tier vessels this year, helping to drive future growth. 

A Visit to Inspire Integrated Resort in Incheon, South Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • I recently visited Inspire Entertainment Resort in Yeongjeongdo, Korea with my family. 
  • Overall, I was impressed with its modern, clean facilities, but despite its large size, there was a relative emptiness to the place that made it feel underutilized.
  • The management rights of Inspire Resort were transferred to Bain Capital from Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment (MGE) in February 2025.

[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.
  • Halliburton has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.
  • Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

By Ying Pan

  • We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov’t subsidies.
  • We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. 
  • We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.

Nauticus Robotics, Inc.: On the Anvil of Commercialization

By Water Tower Research

  • Last year was transformational for KITT, with its strategy shifting to commercializing its technology from its prior focus on research and development.
  • The company expects 2025 “will continue to be a year of change.”
  • On the earnings call and callback, our focus was on sizing the opportunity, the outlook for the year given long lead times and seasonality in the business, and the competitive landscape.

DKSH Malaysia Stable Free Cash Flow Generating Business Available at Attractive Valuations

By Punit Khanna

  • It has stable free cash flow generating business which involves own marketing own brands, distributing consumer and healthcare products in Malaysia
  • The company has double digit ROE and trades below Book Value per Share
  • Trades at significantly lower  valuations to its parent and  other Malaysian consumer stocks

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 April (Heineken | Basic-Fit | InPost | Sligro Food Group)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Heineken | main takeaways earnings call • Basic-Fit | solid start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance – secures EUR 200m RCF • InPost | acquisition of Yodel a real opportunity • Sligro Food Group | modest revenue growth when adjusted for exceptionals

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400
  • [Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer
  • PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): 5th May Vote On Liberty’s Offer
  • TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price
  • Canvest (1381 HK): Scheme Vote on 12 May
  • BBVA Faces Resistance at the Vault with CNMC’s Verdict Looming

Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400

By Travis Lundy

  • In February Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share after getting the cold shoulder for months.
  • Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) was asked to bid, and they did a week ago, bidding ¥4,500/share. Yesterday the Shibaura CEO was in an article saying an overbid would be considered. 
  • Mid-Day, I boomeranged my piece, saying I thought Yageo would overbid. Today after the close, Yageo has overbid with a whopping ¥5,400/share bid, with unchanged start date of 7 May.

[Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night, Topcon Corp (7732 JP) announced that KKR had agreed a deal with ValueAct Capital who owns 14.62% of Topcon to have VAC tender shares and invest in Bidco.
  • Topcon’s Special Committee saw nothing wrong with this in terms of fairness. I think that argument needs to be investigated at a broader level. 
  • If Bidder wants 50.1% control and expects passive to agree, and Bidder gets 50.1% to join Bidco at terms, obviously, majority of minority disappears. This is an unintended loophole. 

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY5,400, representing a 20.0% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY4,500 offer.
  • All the other terms remain unchanged. In response to the revised Yageo offer, the Board will commence a sincere review to determine if the Yageo offer will enhance corporate value. 
  • There is a 50/50 chance that Minebea walks or revises its offer. Yageo’s revised offer is marginally above the midpoint of Minebea IFA’s DCF range, potentially justifying a higher offer.

PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): 5th May Vote On Liberty’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 17th Feb, PEC Ltd. (PEC SP), a plant and terminal engineering specialist, announced an Offer from Allied Energy Services, an engineering entity under the Liberty Group.
  • Liberty offered S$0.84/share (not final), including a AS$0.20/share special dividend, a 12.8% premium to undisturbed; but more like a >35% premium. Irrevocables from the board of 63.38% had been secured.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with an EGM on the 5th May, with payment on or before the 20th June. The IFA (Deloitte) says “fair & reasonable“.

TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price

By Travis Lundy

  • TRYT (9164 JP) was bought by EQT years ago and IPOed on TSE Growth in July 2023 at ¥1,200/share. The shares tanked on Day 1, almost reached ¥1,000 days later.
  • Then they fell, and fell some more, reaching the ¥370s early in Q1, then again post Trump tariff announcement.  EQT still holds ~60%. Shares closed at ¥374 on 16 April.
  • In February, there were noises about EQT putting the business up for sale, reportedly seeking an offer close to ¥1,200/share. Now there are noises of a Second Round.

Canvest (1381 HK): Scheme Vote on 12 May

By Arun George

  • Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)’s IFA opines that Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH)’s HK$4.90 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 12 May. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection). Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive.
  • This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 10 June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/18.3%. 

BBVA Faces Resistance at the Vault with CNMC’s Verdict Looming

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The CNMC is expected to approve the deal with mild remedies, reducing regulatory uncertainty; however, a potential Phase 3 review by the government could delay timing and introduce political risk.
  • Sabadell’s standalone defense is robust, anchored in increased dividends, buybacks, and 14%+ RoTE guidance, which have helped reposition the bank as a viable independent alternative in the market.
  • The offer’s gross spread has turned negative, reflecting investor skepticism about deal success or expectations of an improved offer; the lack of a premium currently weakens BBVA’s negotiating leverage.

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Hongqiao, Indika Energy
  • In the US, advance retail sales rose 1.4% m-o-m (1.4% e / 0.2% p) in March, the highest increase in over two years, driven by consumer front-loading of car purchases and electronics ahead of tariff implementation.
  • Retail sales excluding autos edged down to 0.5% (0.4% e / 0.7% revised p), while the retail sales control group (excluding autos, gas, food services and building materials) slowed to 0.4% (0.6% e / 1.3% revised p). Separately, industrial production slid 0.3% (-0.2% e / 0.8% revised p) in March, with capacity utilisation falling to 77.8% (77.9% e / 78.2% p)

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025
  • Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook
  • ECB: Cutting In Shadow of Shocks
  • The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News
  • [ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub
  • US Retail Sales Trends Grew 3.6% in 1Q
  • Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline
  • Korea: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25
  • CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm

Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Manishi Raychaudhuri. 

  • The ASEAN region is expected to witness positive economic growth in the coming years, driven by robust domestic demand, increasing foreign investments, and government initiatives to boost economic activities.

  • However, challenges like trade turmoil, poor consumer confidence, and potential deflation need to be addressed to sustain and enhance the markets’ attractiveness. 

Join us as Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri shares his outlook on capital markets across ASEAN, including timely insights on sector trends, policy shifts, and future risks shaping investment opportunities in the ASEAN-6. 

The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 28 April 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri possesses nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan. Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients.

Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook

By Ewan Markson-Brown

  • Century of Decline, One Shock Reset: Argentina fell from 80% of US GDP to 25%—Milei is reversing it with fiscal shock therapy. 
  • From Chaos to Credibility: Inflation tamed, market confidence rising—first fiscal surplus in a decade.
  • Decentralization, AI, and the Next Model: Tax federalism and AI governance make Argentina the first EM reform lab.

ECB: Cutting In Shadow of Shocks

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB’s seventh 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.25% risks becoming stimulative, but the shock from US trade policy seen through market moves demanded a response.
  • Central bankers are no more aware of the trade policy outlook than markets, but they are more aware of the potential inflationary effects and limits to effective easing.
  • Time will reveal the tariffs and impact, allowing the agile ECB to tackle this rather than just the shadow it has cast on anticipatory market pricing. We still expect a June cut.

The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding

By Andreas Steno

  • Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics.
  • Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.
  • We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. 
  • The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to>4.0 mtpa. 
  • At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX’s market cap. 

[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
  • Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.
  • Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.

US Retail Sales Trends Grew 3.6% in 1Q

By Water Tower Research

  • US retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline) increased 3.6% Y/Y in 1Q25, according to the Advance monthly retail sales data from the US Census Bureau.
  • This was an acceleration from the 0.2% Y/Y growth in February 2025, but more importantly, there was an acceleration in CAGR growth versus 2019 levels compared with both January and February 2025, which represented a deceleration from prior year levels (see chart on right).
  • Whether this acceleration was in anticipation of the impending tariffs announcement is unclear. 

Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Korea: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Bank of Korea maintained its base rate at 2.75%, aligning with the majority consensus, as heightened uncertainty over US tariff policy, domestic stimulus measures, and exchange rate volatility warranted a pause in easing, despite deteriorating growth prospects.
  • Domestic GDP is now expected to undershoot the 1.5% forecast from February due to weak Q1 performance, persistent trade frictions, and subdued domestic demand, while inflation remains stable at around 2%.
  • Further rate cuts remain likely, but the MPC will assess external volatility and policy clarity before resuming easing, with the May outlook expected to be a key inflexion point.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm

By Caixin Global

  • GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP jumps 5.4% ahead of tariff storm
  • Hong Kong /: Trade war clouds Hong Kong’s future as China’s global gateway
  • Banks /In Depth: Chinese banks chase opportunities overseas amid struggles at home

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