
In today’s briefing:
- Rubber Board Says Q1 FY25 Production Near Stable But ATMA Disputes
- The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone
- UK Inflation Hits Its Bouncy Bottom
- Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 6.00% (consensus 6.0%) in Oct-24
- Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.25% (consensus 2.5%) in Oct-24
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: CEO Dialogue & IMF Article IV
- CX Daily: China Forestry’s Fall Under Corruption Cloud Reveals Weakness in State-Owned System
- CX Daily: Chinese AI-App Makers Look Overseas for Their Big Break

Rubber Board Says Q1 FY25 Production Near Stable But ATMA Disputes
- Consumption declines by .3% to 356,000 tons in Q1 FY 25
- ATMA says April-Sept 2024 production 37% lower year on year
- ATMA asks Rubber Board to expedite data publishing
The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone
- The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger.
- China keeps applying supply-side measures to a demand-driven problem, which is unlikely to succeed.
- What China really needs is a forced increase in demand across the system, but instead, they’re focused on trying to incentivize demand for assets or reshuffle credit profiles.
UK Inflation Hits Its Bouncy Bottom
- Surprisingly soft UK inflation data extended across the headline and conventional core metrics, partly because of substantial payback in airfares after August’s surge.
- Only a slight unwind in October and ambiguous historical precedents for November mean much of this downside persists. However, other underlying signals were resilient.
- The BoE can focus on this downside news and cut in November. Ultimately, signals for the underlying pressures in the cyclically tight UK economy should urge an early pause.
Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 6.00% (consensus 6.0%) in Oct-24
- Bank Indonesia kept the BI-Rate at 6.00%, aligning with market expectations, focusing on inflation control within the 2.5% ±1% target and maintaining Rupiah stability amid global uncertainties.
- The central bank’s cautious stance reflects concerns about geopolitical risks and global market volatility, while future rate decisions will hinge on inflation trends, exchange rate stability, and economic growth prospects.
- Ongoing policy measures aim to reinforce external stability with strategic currency interventions and supportive macroprudential policies to bolster domestic growth drivers.
Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.25% (consensus 2.5%) in Oct-24
- The Bank of Thailand’s unexpected 25bp rate cut to 2.25% signals a dovish shift to support debt servicing, contrary to the consensus of no change.
- Future policy will hinge on inflation developments, particularly the gradual rise towards the target range, plus sectoral economic growth disparities.
- Credit conditions, debt deleveraging, and global monetary trends will influence the central bank’s rate trajectory.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: CEO Dialogue & IMF Article IV
- After Meeting with U.S. Investors, the Federal Government Announces Investments Exceeding $20 Billion by 2025.
- On October 15, a meeting was held between the Mexican government and 240 senior executives from the United States and Mexico, aimed at strengthening investor confidence.
- The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted during this dialogue that the ongoing legal reforms are focused on strengthening the rule of law and encouraging investment.
CX Daily: China Forestry’s Fall Under Corruption Cloud Reveals Weakness in State-Owned System
- SOE / Cover Story: China Forestry’s fall under corruption cloud reveals weakness in state-owned system
- Stimulus /Exclusive: China may add 6 trillion yuan in treasury bonds to buttress economy
- Fugitive /: Fugitive Chinese tycoon arrested in Bali
CX Daily: Chinese AI-App Makers Look Overseas for Their Big Break
- AI / In Depth: Chinese AI-app makers look overseas for their big break
- Corruption /: Prosecutors will seize fugitive former official’s assets in $400 million embezzlement case
- Payments /: UnionPay teams up with Vietnam partner to simplify QR payments across borders