Smartkarma Daily Briefs, Author at Smartkarma

Mar 22

Daily Brief Indonesia: Mayora Indah and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Mayora (MYOR): Indo Sugar Tax – A Negative

Mayora (MYOR): Indo Sugar Tax – A Negative

By Henry Soediarko

The sugar tax in Indonesia is plan to be introduced July this year, around Rp 1500/liter for sweetened packaged drinks including soft drinks, bottled tea.
Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) tea product is Teh Pucuk Harum, that is widely sold in hypermarts and convenience stores, while Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) no longer owns Teh Sosro.
Expecting sentiment to be better, Short Mayora and Long Unilever.

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Mar 22

Daily Brief India: Voltas Ltd, Manappuram Finance, Greenko Energy Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

India’s Summer Stock: Voltas Ltd- Navigating Supply Headwinds
Manappuram Finance: Bain Capital’s Entry Signals a New Chapter, But Challenges Remain
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

India’s Summer Stock: Voltas Ltd- Navigating Supply Headwinds

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) is shifting to a volume-led strategy while investing INR 260 crore to build in-house compressor manufacturing under PLI 3.0.
This approach de-risks supply chains, maintains mass-market pricing, and supports growth amid rising raw material and currency pressures.
Voltas is evolving from a margin-led to scale-focused player, making it a resilient long-term bet on India’s low AC penetration and summer-driven demand.

Manappuram Finance: Bain Capital’s Entry Signals a New Chapter, But Challenges Remain

By Nimish Maheshwari

Bain Capital is acquiring a 41.7–46% stake in Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN), marking a shift from a promoter-led to a professionally managed NBFC.
This deal injects INR 4,385 crore in fresh capital, strengthens governance, and positions Manappuram for growth beyond gold loans into microfinance, vehicle loans, and housing finance.
While execution risks remain, Bain’s track record in financial services suggests a long-term transformation, potentially closing Manappuram’s valuation gap with Muthoot Finance.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy
In the US, the Conference Board Leading Index declined 0.3% (-0.2% e / -0.2% revised p) in February to 101.1. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, noted that “consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index’s monthly decline”.
Separately, existing home sales unexpectedly rebounded 4.2% m-o-m (-3.2% e / -4.7% p) to 4.26 mn units in February. Sales climbed the most in the west and south regions, which were afflicted at the start of the year by wildfires in Los Angeles and severe winter storms, respectively.

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Mar 22

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Binex Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)
Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.
KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Binex (053030 KS) To Replace HLB Life Science (067630 KS)

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

By Nico Rosti

Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.

Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.

By Sanghyun Park

Today’s update clarifies which brokers are fully linked to NSDS, giving them an edge in short-selling speed and flexibility, while others face more execution constraints.
This leads to a clear execution risk gap, requiring traders to factor in trade efficiency differences based on their broker.
With lower short-selling restriction triggers, liquidity and short-covering dynamics will shift, requiring traders to reassess market impact and adjust strategies accordingly.

KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Binex (053030 KS) To Replace HLB Life Science (067630 KS)

By Brian Freitas

HLB Life Science (067630 KS) was added to the Investment Attention Issue list on 21 March and traded limit down. Then came the announcement of the KOSDAQ 150 Index deletion.
As the highest ranked non-constituent from the Healthcare sector at the December rebalance, Binex (053030 KS) will be added to the KOSDAQ 150 Index at the close on 25 March.
Historically, intra-review inclusions have moved higher between announcement and implementation and there has been reversion post the index inclusion.

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Mar 22

Daily Brief China: Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering, KE Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun25: Three ADDs/DELs Likely; >2x ADV to Trade for Most Names
[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun25: Three ADDs/DELs Likely; >2x ADV to Trade for Most Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The CSI Medical Index represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical themes in China.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to three ADDs and three DELs in June 2025 based on the latest available data (where 90% of the reference period is complete).

[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery

By Eric Wen

Beike reported C4Q24 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 8.4%/7.4%, non-GAAP OP miss our estimate/consensus by 37.5%/21.6%, due to front-loading expansion cost.
We expect Beike to take 2-3ppt of market share in a rebalancing property market in 2025.
We keep the stock as BUY and keep TP at US$25.

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Mar 22

Daily Brief Japan: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc., Intloop , Japan System Techniques Co, Srg Takamiya, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come
Intloop (9556 JP) – Demonstrating Operational Leverage
Q3 Follow-Up: Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – March 11, 2025
Q3 Follow-Up: Takamiya (2445 JP) – March 10, 2025
“TSE’s Request” Catalyzes and Attracts Activist Investors to Invest

Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come

By Travis Lundy

3D Investment Partners launched a Partial Tender Offer to buy a 10+% stake in Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). The REIT finally responded with a “Neutral” stance.
But they also upgraded earnings forecasts, bought a building, and announced the Sponsor would buy units in the market over the next year. It’s big.
And that creates flows, which then engender other reactive flows, and cascading flows, and because the sector isn’t rich, there may be a tailwind.

Intloop (9556 JP) – Demonstrating Operational Leverage

By Astris Advisory Japan

We believe the key highlight of Q1-2 FY7/25 results is OPM expansion YoY from 4.7% to 6.6%.
The company aims to secure high-margin projects aligned with its strategic aims while maintaining business investment in new hires to grow.
Business expansion via strategic alliances is bearing fruit with Itochu Corporation (8001), with other initiatives being unveiled in the food and logistics sectors to expand and diversify the solutions portfolio and accelerate growth.

Q3 Follow-Up: Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – March 11, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

Japan System Techniques (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q3(9M)
Key consolidated figures net sales of JPY 20,549 mn (+10.9% YoY), operating profit of JPY 2,041 mn (+26.5% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 2,116 mn (+28.4% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 1,417 mn (+28.9% YoY).
Higher sales and profits in the DX&SI business and Package business contributed in Q3 earnings growth.

Q3 Follow-Up: Takamiya (2445 JP) – March 10, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

Q3 FY2025/3 Earnings results summary: Takamiya (hereafter, the Company) reported its Q3(9M) FY2025/3 consolidated earnings results: sales of JPY 32,335 mn (+0.5% YoY), operating profit of JPY 1,316 mn (-45.3% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 1,209 mn (-52.1% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 867 mn (-49.8% YoY).
Due to the postponement of the large-scale projects’ commencements, rental volumes fell short of initial expectations.
Additionally, due to delays in the delivery schedule of sales and OPE-MANE projects, the net sales saw only a slight increase.

“TSE’s Request” Catalyzes and Attracts Activist Investors to Invest

By Aki Matsumoto

When investing in a larger company, one can expect higher liquidity, higher expectations of endorsement of the activist investor’s views because of the large institutional holdings, and smoother communication.
As cross-shareholding structures are beginning to break down, there’re many opportunities for activist investors to attack such companies because they couldn’t create value and grow due to underutilization of resources.
Activist investors have invested in Japanese companies in the past, but never with such success. This success is largely due to a change in the environment.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief ESG: Instilling Expectations Was Positive and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Instilling Expectations Was Positive, but Interest Quickly Shifting from Seriousness to Performance

Instilling Expectations Was Positive, but Interest Quickly Shifting from Seriousness to Performance

By Aki Matsumoto

The reorganization of Panasonic Holdings was far from restructuring its business portfolio, as it brought highly profitable subsidiaries and affiliates into the parent company while leaving low-profit businesses alone.
Although Panasonic’s disclosure was successful as IR in instilling “expectations” in investors by showing targets, a possibility cannot be denied that it’s temporary phenomenon that came at market turning point.
Now, 3 years after “TSE’s request,” many investors are looking to improve profitability by restructuring their business portfolios, and will likely demand steady results year after year.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Softbank’s Silicon Dreams Get Bigger and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Softbank’s Silicon Dreams Get Bigger
Thematic Report : Decoding FII Flows; What History, Market Cycles, and Stock-Level Data Tell Us
[Precious Insights 2025/11]: Gold & Silver Surge to New Highs Amid Softer Inflation & Rising Volume
#122 India Insight: India Ups Steel PLI, Amazon Mulls Local IPO, UBS & HSBC Eye Wealth Boom

Ohayo Japan | Softbank’s Silicon Dreams Get Bigger

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks fell Thursday after an initial rally driven by the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. The Nasdaq dropped 0.3%
Nike reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly results; Shares rose 4% in extended trading
SoftBank Group is acquiring U.S. chip startup Ampere Computing for ¥1 trillion in an all-cash deal, expanding its investment in AI infrastructure

Thematic Report : Decoding FII Flows; What History, Market Cycles, and Stock-Level Data Tell Us

By Nimish Maheshwari

FII flows still influence market trends, even as domestic flows have gained prominence, especially during global macro uncertainty.
Current correction is in line with past episodes, both in terms of depth and scale of selling, suggesting we may be closer to the mature phase of the downturn.
We did data deep dive of FII flows how it has impacted markets in past and what it means for future.

[Precious Insights 2025/11]: Gold & Silver Surge to New Highs Amid Softer Inflation & Rising Volume

By Amrutha Raj

Gold surged 2.6%, surpassing $3,000/oz for the first time, while silver rose 4.4% to its highest YTD level, both driven by a weaker dollar.
GLD ETF saw a $1.16 billion net inflow, reversing the prior week’s $933 million outflow,while SLV ETF recorded $131.8 million in inflows, up from the previous week’s $85.7 million outflow.
Gold futures ADV rose 25.2% WoW, with open interest up 6.5%, while silver options call OI at key strikes ($34–$35) indicates rising interest in further upside.

#122 India Insight: India Ups Steel PLI, Amazon Mulls Local IPO, UBS & HSBC Eye Wealth Boom

By Sudarshan Bhandari

India boosts PLI outlay for steel sector to Rs. 305 cr to drive innovation, exports, and counter US import tariffs.
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) explores spinning off and listing its India arm locally to align with regulations and strengthen its position in the market.
UBS and HSBC expand wealth operations in India, leveraging the IPO boom to capture rising investor demand and economic momentum.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: US$1.4bn Total One-Way Flows; Basket Trade Idea
Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Third Party Offer?
Dalton Investments Going Activist on Kolmar Holdings and NAV Valuation
Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis
Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Lifeway Foods Faces Potential Sale to Danone Amidst Board Overhaul and Family Feud Resolution by June 2025

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation

By Travis Lundy

Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.

Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

By Travis Lundy

In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently.
Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: US$1.4bn Total One-Way Flows; Basket Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 9 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event in June 2025.

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 28th January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%.
Done & dusted no? Then Topline sold down to 19.7% on the 28th Jan, then 10.5% on the 28th Feb. The Takeover Panel now orders Topline to stop selling.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Third Party Offer?

By David Blennerhassett

ENN Energy (2688 HK), a major clean energy distributor based in China, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code
The largest shareholder is ENN Group (34.28% of shares out), an entity controlled by founder Wang Yusuo and his wife, Zhao Baoju.
ENN Energy is a US$8.5bn market cap company. It’s possible ENN Group make an Offer. But more likely, I’d expect an Offer from a (larger) third party.

Dalton Investments Going Activist on Kolmar Holdings and NAV Valuation

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss Dalton Investments which recently started to go activist on Kolmar Korea Holdings (024720 KS) and NAV valuation of this company.
Our base case valuation of Kolmar Holdings is NAV of 475 billion won or NAV per share of 13,836 won, representing a 46% upside from current levels.
Dalton Investments is likely to pressure Kolmar Holdings to increase share buyback and cancellations.

Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unification could unlock $27-32B in value, driven by cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, enhancing Rio Tinto’s market positioning and shareholder returns.
$2.88B in franking credits are lost annually due to the DLC structure; unification enables full utilization via higher franked dividends and strategic off-market buybacks.
Increased ASX200 and FTSE100 weighting post-unification could drive $5-7B in passive fund inflows, improving liquidity, stock valuation, and institutional investor appeal.

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

By Gaudenz Schneider

Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
The US’s global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.

Lifeway Foods Faces Potential Sale to Danone Amidst Board Overhaul and Family Feud Resolution by June 2025

By Special Situation Investments

Danone offered to buy Lifeway at $25/share in September 2024, raised to $27/share in November 2024.
Lifeway’s board rejected Danone’s offers, claiming $27/share undervalues the company; CEO Julie Smolyansky increased her compensation.
Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky, with Danone, control 50% of Lifeway, aiming to replace the board and negotiate a sale.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group
In the US, the FOMC has unanimously voted to maintain the Fed Funds target rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, in line with market expectations. In its statement, the FOMC noted that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased”, removing previous language that the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are “roughly in balance”.
Meanwhile, the Fed dot plot showed that the US central bank’s officials continue to see a median of two 25-bp rate cuts in 2025, two cuts in 2026 and one in 2027, with the long-run Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.0%.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief ECM: Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles
Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)
CoreWeave (CRWV): Valuation, Cash Raise Lighter than Expected as Company Pushes Ahead with IPO
EAAA India Pre-IPO – Quality Management Fee Stream but Future AUM Raising Could Be Difficult

Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles

By Sanghyun Park

Market sees this as an M&A play, not just de-leveraging. Sentiment’s split, and despite a tight discount, uncertainty on take-up could spark major dislocations in stock and rights.
Hanwha’s ₩3.6T raise drops just a week after Samsung SDI’s ₩2T—₩5.5T back-to-back. Absorption looks brutal, setting up serious volatility and prime trading opps if liquidity tightens.
The FSC fast-tracked this, flagging it instantly but also hinting approval. With regulator risk off, any cash market snapback tomorrow should stay in check.

Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

By Douglas Kim

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector.

CoreWeave (CRWV): Valuation, Cash Raise Lighter than Expected as Company Pushes Ahead with IPO

By IPO Boutique

CoreWeave (CRWV US) officially set terms for an IPO on Thursday morning coming in with a valuation and cash raise that was much lower than previously reported.
Furthermore, the underwriters placed a wider-than-normal spread on the range, $47-$55. This insinuates a negotiation process between the buy-side.
The valuation coming in lower than anticipated will allow investors to put money to work at a more attractive risk-reward profile.

EAAA India Pre-IPO – Quality Management Fee Stream but Future AUM Raising Could Be Difficult

By Nicholas Tan

EAAA India Alternatives Ltd (1619210D IN) is planning to raise about US$177m through its upcoming India IPO.
It is one of the leading alternatives platforms in India, with AUM of INR 572.62bn (US$6.63bn), as of 9M24, amassing 15 years of experience.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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