Smartkarma Daily Briefs

HK$100bn a day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity with US$600mm+ of net buying on average. Net flows continue to be impressive. SOEs/Energy/Financials dominate.
Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could up the pace of things.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Top Trades Bet on a Bullish Trend Reversal

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Highlights: 55% of strategies exhibit a bullish bias, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Retired Sr. VP Joins Intel; U.S. Fab Impact; Arizona Earnings Decline.

By Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR (TSM US)’s retired Senior Vice President Dr. Wei-Jen Lo has taken a position at Intel.
Trump has been in power for less than a year, and the U.S.’s measures have fully revealed its purpose of confrontation between China and the United States.
TSMC’s Arizona fab profit dropped from NT$4.32 billion in 2Q25 to NT$410 million in 3Q25.

Primer: Meitu Inc (1357 HK) – Nov 2025

By αSK

Transition to AI-Driven Subscriptions Fueling Growth: Meitu is successfully transitioning its business model from advertising to a high-margin, AI-driven subscription service for its photo, video, and design products. This strategic shift is the primary driver behind significant revenue and profit growth, with paying subscribers reaching 15.4 million.
Strategic Divestment from Cryptocurrency: The company has fully divested its cryptocurrency holdings, realizing a substantial net gain of nearly US$80 million. This move de-risks the balance sheet from the volatility of digital assets and allows management to refocus capital and attention on its core AI imaging business.
Expanding Global Footprint and Enterprise Solutions: Meitu is aggressively expanding its international user base, which now accounts for 35% of total Monthly Active Users (MAUs). Concurrently, it is leveraging its core AI technology to launch productivity-focused tools for e-commerce and advertising, opening new avenues for enterprise revenue.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Tencent (700 HK): Top Option Trades Reveal a Split in Market Sentiment

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Highlights: Market sentiment is evenly balanced between bullish and bearish strategies, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

ECM Weekly (24 November 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Hongqiao, WT Micro, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Ultragreen

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, most of the listings over the past week ended up doing well, irrespective of overall demand.
On the placements front, there was a lockup release for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK), along with a number of other placements.

Technology One Ltd – Outlook Intact Post Tech1’s FY25 Punishment

By FNArena

Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations as as the global technology sector is de-rated.
-TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 24

Most Read: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, CRH , Yum China Holdings , SK Square , Innovent Biologics Inc, Qube Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, Monash IVF, Geekplus Technology, SBI Shinsei Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon
HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added
Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV
Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
[Quiddity Index] Dec25 Hang Seng Index Family Review; Flows for December 5 Rebal
Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon

The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve

By Sanghyun Park

If the three non-IT names exit IT, passive flows hit hard: SK Square/LG Electronics ~0.4× DTV out, LG Corp ~0.8× DTV out, new IT entrants ~0.2–0.25× DTV in.
If KRX surprises next Tuesday, kicking three names from IT, expect immediate tape reaction—market memory exists, but the scenario isn’t priced, unlike 2023 Kakaopay, so instant price impact is likely.
If this happens, June 11 turns into a chunky basket-flow day: SK Square (~15% weight) out, next-tier caps see ~0.15–0.2× DTV inflow, except ultra-liquid names like Hanmi Semi.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV

As forecast, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) will replace Tata Motors (TTMT IN) in the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) after the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 3.6-7.7x ADV in the stocks and that increases significantly to 7.1-12x delivery volume.
There are indications that positioning has built up in both stocks over the last few weeks. However, in both cases, positioning is expected to be smaller than the passive selling.

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light.

[Quiddity Index] Dec25 Hang Seng Index Family Review; Flows for December 5 Rebal

In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet & Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
By Quiddity calculations based on the 21 November close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$26.14bn (approximately), to trade on 5 December at the close.

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion, and Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s US$0.8 billion secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), Webjet Group (WJL AU).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 24

Daily Brief Financials: SBI Shinsei Bank, China Merchants Bank H, Wharf Real Estate Investment C and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM
A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025): Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?
Short Wharf REIC: Structural De-Rating and Weakened Luxury Consumption

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion, and Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s US$0.8 billion secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), Webjet Group (WJL AU).

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025): Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.
Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Short Wharf REIC: Structural De-Rating and Weakened Luxury Consumption

By Jacob Cheng

We think Wharf REIC, which owns luxury malls in Hong Kong, is undergoing a structural de-rating, on the back of macro headwinds, currency impact and company fundamentals
Southbound consumption into Hong Kong has weakened deeply, catalyzed by a punitive USD-pegged Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and a collapsing Japanese Yen (JPY)
In latest interim results, Wharf REIC reported HK$5.1 billion revaluation deficit and a HK$2.4 billion net loss, representing negative rental reversions crystallizing into lower asset values.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 24

Daily Brief Consumer: Yum China Holdings , Tsuruha Holdings, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Webjet Group, PDD Holdings, Dream International, Lovesac Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation
Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Nov 24 – Nov 28)
Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal
Pinduoduo (PDD): 3Q25, Growth Stops Declining, Op Cashflow Rises Again After a Year
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – November 2025
Primer: Lovesac Co (LOVE US) – Nov 2025

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Nov 24 – Nov 28)

By Nico Rosti

A tactical snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.
We find no overbought stocks or indices in Asia at present. US equities are aligned with this view, this is a global market pullback, probably about to end.

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal

On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.
Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids.

Pinduoduo (PDD): 3Q25, Growth Stops Declining, Op Cashflow Rises Again After a Year

By Ming Lu

PDD’s total revenue increased by 9% YoY in 3Q25 higher than 7% YoY in 2Q25.
In 3Q25, operating cash flows stopped decreasing after a year and grew by 66% YoY.
We believe PDD’s stock price can be double for the next twelve month according to other e-commerce companies’ EV/EBITDA.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – November 2025

By Sameer Taneja

We compile our selection of small- and mid-cap names with the desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and a margin of safety.
We compile updates on Oriental Watch (398 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), and others into the results.
Our top picks are Asian Terminals (ATI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).

Primer: Lovesac Co (LOVE US) – Nov 2025

By αSK

Lovesac is a niche, direct-to-consumer furniture company with a strong brand identity centered on its patented, modular “Sactionals”and premium “Sacs.”
The company’s growth is driven by its unique “Designed for Life”philosophy, emphasizing sustainable, adaptable products that foster a loyal, repeat customer base, with approximately 47% of transactions from existing customers.
While exhibiting strong long-term revenue growth, the company faces significant near-term headwinds from a challenging macroeconomic environment, increased competition, and margin pressure from promotional activity.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 24

Daily Brief Health Care: Innovent Biologics Inc, Monash IVF, UltraGreen.ai, 3SBio Inc, Green Thumb Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added
Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
Pre-IPO UltraGreen.ai – Thoughts on the Business, the Concerns and the Valuation
3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Proposed Mandi Spin Off and Listing Sensible; 3SBio Ex Mandi Formidable Enough
Primer: Green Thumb Industries (GTII CN) – Nov 2025

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?