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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: JX Advanced Metals, Aoyama Zaisan Networks Co Lt, Resona Holdings, Restar Holdings Corporation, Geo Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025
  • Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard
  • Restar (3156 JP) – Positioning for Future Demand Upturn
  • Geo Holdings (2681 JP) – Q3 Sales Improve, but Costs Weigh on OP
  • Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.
  • Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.
  • Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.

Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Well positioned to capitalize on Japan’s intergenerational wealth transfer megatrend – The company continues to demonstrate positive growth momentum as evidenced by the double-digit topline growth in Q1-4 FY12/24.
  • The recent Chester Group acquisition should reinforce its position to ride the powerful trend in Japan’s aging demographics and intergenerational wealth transfer.
  • We think the company’s strategic approach towards allocating capital to the growth of the business while minimizing shareholder dilution through share buybacks demonstrates a commitment to shareholder value and financial discipline.

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard

By Victor Galliano

  • We introduce our Japanese big cap banks scorecard; from this, we pick Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with our wildcard being Shizuoka
  • The scorecard metrics measure leverage to higher interest rates, LDRs, levels of cash balances, bond exposures, cross-holdings and valuations; from this, we derive a weighted ranking for each bank
  • We remove Concordia from our buy list; we prefer Shizuoka for its better leverage to rising rates and high ratio of cross-holdings to market capitalization with a holdings reduction plan

Restar (3156 JP) – Positioning for Future Demand Upturn

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-3 FY3/25 results underlined Restar’s positive sales growth profile (+11.2% YoY) driven by its roll-up M&A strategy, a strong demand environment for cameras and PC-related products in consumer products, and smartphone demand driving EMS activity YoY.
  • However, headwinds persist in the form of continued delay in demand recovery from the Industrial sector, a sales mix lowering gross margin, and negative impact from a strengthening Japanese yen.
  • We have not seen concrete evidence of cost savings from post-merger integration activities. 

Geo Holdings (2681 JP) – Q3 Sales Improve, but Costs Weigh on OP

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Sales improve in Q3 but personnel and store opening costs weigh on OP – Although Q1-3 FY3/25 sales declined -3.4% YoY to ¥316.16bn, reflecting the difficult annual comps for new games and consoles in H1, in Q3 the absence of this drag meant that this quarter alone rose +4.3% YoY to ¥116.43bn.
  • Demand for reuse clothes and smartphones remained robust, buoyed by store openings, year-end sales for clothes and price conscious consumers.
  • However, increased hiring, base salary increases and credit card fees continued to eat into OP, which in FY3/25 Q1-3 fell -26.4% YoY to ¥9.82bn.

Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Most shareholder benefits items can be used in Japan. There’s history of more companies abolishing shareholder benefits programs because they believed that shareholder returns should conducted rather than shareholder benefits.
  • Amid rising foreign ownership and the dissolution of cross-shareholdings, more companies have begun to reverse the trend toward companies approaching individual shareholders with shareholder benefits programs.
  • The fact that stock prices of companies offering shareholder benefits tended to fall lower during stock market plunges may be due to the fact that they were mostly defensive stocks.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 21st): Origin Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 21st): Origin Energy, Goodman, Aristocrat Leisure, Wesfarmers


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 21st): Origin Energy, Goodman, Aristocrat Leisure, Wesfarmers

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Origin Energy, Goodman, Aristocrat Leisure, Wesfarmers.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Postcard from Bengaluru | Quick Commerce On-The-Ground and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Postcard from Bengaluru | Quick Commerce On-The-Ground
  • EDGE Tutor nets US$1M to connect Filipino teachers with global learners | e27


Postcard from Bengaluru | Quick Commerce On-The-Ground

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Quick Commerce offers infinite TAM with rapid metro adoption, but requires endless investment in faster delivery times to remain competitive.
  • Delivery partners bear the operational burden, working long hours for modest pay while tech stacks across competitors remain largely similar.
  • Despite investor excitement, QC margins remain elusive due to high competition, homogeneous offerings, and limited pricing power compared to food delivery.

EDGE Tutor nets US$1M to connect Filipino teachers with global learners | e27

By e27

  • EDGE Tutor International, an online tutoring outsourcing company in the Philippines, has closed a US$1 million pre-Series A funding round.
  • The round was led by Seaborne Capital, M Venture Partners, Kaya Founders, Orvel Ventures, IdeaSpace, Lorinet Foundation, and unnamed angel investors.
  • This round follows a US$800,000 seed funding in 2023. Also Read: Why the education sector needs a lesson in ad fraud With this new capital, EDGE Tutor will scale operations and expand further into North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East.

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Daily Brief ECM: Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang
  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering
  • We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
  • Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results
  • Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains
  • Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live
  • We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering
  • Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive


Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected. 
  • The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
  • Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
  • The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights. 
  • Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH’s past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.

We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

By Andrei Zakharov

  • We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
  • We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
  • The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
  • JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains

By Sumeet Singh

  • Premier Energies raised around US$337m after pricing the deal at the top end of the range in Sep 2024. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
  • Premier Energies is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live

By Sanghyun Park

  • With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
  • Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
  • The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.

We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

By Andrei Zakharov

  • According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  
  • My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
  • I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?

Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Visen Pharmaceuticals is looking at raising up to USD 300m to list in Hong Kong.
  • The company has passed the hearing for the listing and filed a new version of the prospectus.
  • We look at the difference between previous filing and current filing. Most of the changes are not critical but we think overall it doesn’t look good.

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Daily Brief ESG: Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings


Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Most shareholder benefits items can be used in Japan. There’s history of more companies abolishing shareholder benefits programs because they believed that shareholder returns should conducted rather than shareholder benefits.
  • Amid rising foreign ownership and the dissolution of cross-shareholdings, more companies have begun to reverse the trend toward companies approaching individual shareholders with shareholder benefits programs.
  • The fact that stock prices of companies offering shareholder benefits tended to fall lower during stock market plunges may be due to the fact that they were mostly defensive stocks.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia’s Sales Boom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia’s Sales Boom, but Stock Down on Pricing Power Concerns
  • Japan Morning Connection: Nvidia + Trump Tariff Worries Sparks Tech Swoon
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 26 February (ASM Int’l | Unilever | Wolters Kluwer | JDE Peet’s)


Ohayo Japan | Nvidia’s Sales Boom, but Stock Down on Pricing Power Concerns

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8%, and the Dow declined 0.4% as tech stocks sold off following Nvidia’s earnings report
  • Nvidia’s Q4 revenue jumps on strong demand for AI chips, but gross margin guidance disappoints due to pricing pressure.
  • Seven & i’s founding family has abandoned its buyout plan due to inability to secure financing, with shares falling 11.7% to 2,118 yen

Japan Morning Connection: Nvidia + Trump Tariff Worries Sparks Tech Swoon

By Andrew Jackson

  • NVDA started the day in the green but was sold aggressively off the open pulling everything lower.
  • Dell rebounded in later trading after strong numbers in a bright spot for sentiment.
  • Advantest taking a minority stake in Micronics a big positive and todays weakness may be the chance to buy.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 26 February (ASM Int’l | Unilever | Wolters Kluwer | JDE Peet’s)

By The IDEA!

  • ASM intends to declare a regular dividend of EUR 3.00 per share [FY23 EUR 2.75 per share].
  • Besides the company authorized a new repurchase program of up to EUR 150m within the 2025/26 timeframe.
  • ASM expects revenue in the range of EUR 810m to EUR 850m for 25Q1 [24Q1 EUR 639.0m], with a projected further increase in 25Q2 compared to 25Q1 [24Q2 EUR 706.1m]. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds


Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • We view Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily driven by the company’s strategic importance to Indonesia and SOE status (100% owned by the government).
  • PLN controls a 62% share of Indonesia’s upstream power generation, and is also the country’s sole downstream electric utility.
  • The company plays a critical role in ensuring affordable and reliable access to electricity for the population, as well as helping Indonesia transition to cleaner energy in the upstream sector (away from coal).

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Cikarang Listrindo
  • In the US, January new home sales fell 10.5% m-o-m to a three-month low of 657 k annualised units (680 k e / 734 k p). The decline reflects weather conditions (as several regions experienced record snowfall in January), as well as affordability concerns amid high prices and mortgage rates. Separately, building permits fell 0.6% (-0.7% p) in the same month.
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the US central bank should hold interest rates where they are and retain a “restrictive posture”. He added: “You can say that we are hitting our employment mandate, and now we have to get the price stability mandate under control.”

Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds

By Leandro Gubler

  • Despite a temporary increase in operating costs, Vista Energy’s solid credit metrics, expanding production, and new pipeline capacity reinforce growth potential
  • We maintain our Outperform recommendation on Vista Energy. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector.
  • From a credit perspective. The results reflected a higher debt balance, primarily driven by the $600 million issuance in December.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: The Beat Ideas: What Is Inside Jio Financial Services? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: What Is Inside Jio Financial Services?
  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule
  • Nvidia: Jan-25 Beat, Apr-25 Beat, Blackwell Demand Is “extraordinary“, Gross Margins Will Improve
  • Raffles Medical (RFMD SP): 2H24 Result, China Recovery, Buyback, and Dividend Raise Expectation
  • Trip.com (TCOM) – Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update
  • Will depressed prices force a Lynas raising?
  • Dassault Systèmes (DSY FP): Moving Forward Toward a Billion Euro Brand
  • Mesoblast (MSB AU): ‘Comparable’ Pricing for Ryoncil; US Commercialization Is Progressing
  • Cognex: Vision Quest – [Business Breakdowns, EP.206]


The Beat Ideas: What Is Inside Jio Financial Services?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) has launched a robust digital ecosystem with its flagship JioFinance app, enhancing its tech-driven financial service offerings.
  • The digital-first strategy minimizes legacy constraints, enabling personalized financial solutions that significantly boost efficiency and competitive advantage.
  • This evolution redefines traditional banking, positioning JFSL as a versatile, technology-led powerhouse for sustainable growth in India’s financial sector.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

By Eric Wen

  • Li Auto’s (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. 
  • Based on information released, we dialed up LI’s BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. 
  • We raise LI’s TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.

Nvidia: Jan-25 Beat, Apr-25 Beat, Blackwell Demand Is “extraordinary“, Gross Margins Will Improve

By Nicolas Baratte

  • CEO is clearly saying that demand is growing faster than expected and has visibility into 2025-26 revenues (we have a fairly good line of sight of investment in data centers)
  • Models are getting better and using up to 100x more computing power (ie chain of thought and reinforcement learning). The AI market is today Consumer, tomorrow Agentic, later on Physical.  
  • The stock is not expensive at 30x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27 EPS. Get over it.

Raffles Medical (RFMD SP): 2H24 Result, China Recovery, Buyback, and Dividend Raise Expectation

By Tina Banerjee

  • Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP) reported mixed 2024 result. However, 2H24 revenue increased 15% YoY, operating profit rose 5% YoY, and adjusted PATMI jumped 38% YoY.
  • China operation is recovering, with revenue growing 10% YoY to S$65M in 2024. Three general hospitals in China have demonstrated strong potential for growth and have a positive outlook ahead.
  • Raffles has revised its dividend policy to pay out at least 50%. The company intends to buy back up to 100M ordinary shares over the next two years.

Trip.com (TCOM) – Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

By Acid Investments

  • This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.
  • This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.
  • I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Dassault Systèmes CEO highlights European automaker struggles and growth readiness in US and Asia in January 2025.
  • SK Hynix achieves impressive 70% yield in HBM4 testing, signaling advancements in memory technology.
  • China’s tungsten export controls cause market price fluctuations, disrupting global supply chains. Foxconn partners with Sonora in Mexico for innovative smart city project.

Will depressed prices force a Lynas raising?

By Money of Mine

  • Lynas, a six and a half billion dollar mining company, faced challenges in their half yearly results with higher unit costs and a significant decrease in cash position.
  • The company’s cash reserves have diminished by over $200 million, raising concerns about the sustainability of their operations in the current rare earths price environment.
  • Expansion projects in Mount Weld and Kalgoorlie are ongoing, with potential impacts on future financial performance and the need for additional financing options.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Dassault Systèmes (DSY FP): Moving Forward Toward a Billion Euro Brand

By Gregory Ramirez

  • Dassault Systèmes has agreed to acquire Contentserv, a provider of AI-driven product information management platforms, for EUR220m, enhancing Centric’s PLM offerings for consumer goods industries.   
  • Centric aims to reach EUR500m in revenue by 2028, with goals of becoming a EUR1bn brand. Contentserv is expected to boost Centric’s revenue by 25%, contributing to its growth plans.  
  • We deem the integration of Contentserv into Centric will occur gradually. Additionally, Centric will benefit from 3D Universes, an AI-based environment designed to leverage legacy 3D designs and PLM data.

Mesoblast (MSB AU): ‘Comparable’ Pricing for Ryoncil; US Commercialization Is Progressing

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU) has announced pricing for Ryoncil in the U.S. in tandem with the economic value of treatment with product availability planned for the current quarter.
  • Wholesale acquisition cost of Ryoncil has been set at $194K per infusion. Ryoncil infusion is given twice per week for 4 weeks. This brings the full treatment cost to $1.55M.
  • The pricing is strategically determined against the cost of treating a child who dies of SR-aGvHD of $2.5M and calculated total benefits of patient outcomes using Ryoncil of $3.2–4.1M.

Cognex: Vision Quest – [Business Breakdowns, EP.206]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Cognex is a leader in machine vision, providing ruggedized cameras and software for automation in manufacturing and logistics environments
  • Cognex’s products fall into four categories: Guide, Gauge, Inspect, and ID
  • ID includes Dataman products for reading barcodes and optical character recognition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: 7&I (3382) – MBO Off and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More
  • JPH Launches “MBO” (LBO with SARs for Family/Execs) For Trucker Tonami Holdings (9070). Too Cheap.
  • SpringWorks Therapeutics in Advanced Acquisition Talks with Merck KGaA Amid FDA Approval and Growth Potential
  • Event Driven: UltraTech’s Bold Foray into Wires & Cables 80,000+ Cr Market
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (January and February 2025)


7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More

By Travis Lundy

  • The MBO is off. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn’t surprising.
  • 7&i says they “continue to engage constructively with ACT and alternate proposals but news articles suggest that almost 6mos after proposing an NDA, ACT still haven’t had access to financials.
  • The shares are off hard today to a level below where ACT’s first bid was considered “not even worth discussing”. There will be questions at the AGM and before.

JPH Launches “MBO” (LBO with SARs for Family/Execs) For Trucker Tonami Holdings (9070). Too Cheap.

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) announced an MBO for Tonami Holdings (9070 JP) whereby the family/execs will stay on. JPH will own 99.97%, the execs/family 0.03%.
  • This deal is yet another in a line of logistics deals dating back the last 2+ years where the premium has been quite big. This time is +74%. 
  • But this is not overly expensive. Makes me go hmmmm… 

SpringWorks Therapeutics in Advanced Acquisition Talks with Merck KGaA Amid FDA Approval and Growth Potential

By Special Situation Investments

  • SpringWorks Therapeutics is in advanced acquisition talks with Merck KGaA, following FDA approval for its drug Gomekli.
  • Merck’s acquisition strategy focuses on low-risk, value-creating oncology deals, aligning with SpringWorks’ FDA-approved treatments.
  • Estimated peak sales for SpringWorks’ drugs range from $600m to $1bn, suggesting a potential $85/share valuation.

Event Driven: UltraTech’s Bold Foray into Wires & Cables 80,000+ Cr Market

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • UltraTech Cement, part of the Aditya Birla Group, is entering the 80,000+ crore wires & cables market with INR 1,800 crore investment, targeting a December 2026 plant launch in Gujarat.
  • The sector is highly fragmented, with no dominant player exceeding 20% market share, creating an opportunity for UltraTech to disrupt with its financial strength, backward integration, and superior product quality.
  • This move positions UltraTech as a diversified building materials leader, leveraging synergies with Hindalco to offer cost-efficient, high-quality electrical solutions, reshaping competition in the industry.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (January and February 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in January and February 2025.
  • There were 37 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 2.3% of outstanding shares.
  • Some of the notable share buybacks by Korean companies in the past two months include Samsung Electronics, Celltrion, Hyundai Mobis, and INFOvine.

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Daily Brief Macro: EA Resilience Is Perfunctory Problem and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EA Resilience Is Perfunctory Problem
  • Greater Scrutiny by the FSC on Rights Offerings and IPOs That Could Destroy Shareholder Value
  • CX Daily: How Cryptocurrency Gets Used to Move Billions of Yuan in and out of China
  • The Case for Europe
  • ECB Meeting Accounts – January 2025
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 Feb 2025


EA Resilience Is Perfunctory Problem

By Phil Rush

  • Crashing US surveys in 2025 have looked idiosyncratic, as spurious exaggeration of exceptionalism ends. The ESI corroborates the PMI’s resilience in the euro area.
  • Price expectations have been trending further above long-run averages without a one-off shock, suggesting European policy is too loose for this stage of the economic cycle.
  • EA unemployment remains lower than a year ago, inconsistent with tight monetary conditions. We still see the ECB’s last cut in June, much sooner than the market prices.

Greater Scrutiny by the FSC on Rights Offerings and IPOs That Could Destroy Shareholder Value

By Douglas Kim

  • On 27 February, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSC) announced that it plans to give greater scrutiny on rights offerings and IPOs in Korea that could potentially destroy shareholder value.
  • Overall, these attempts to improve the rights offerings and IPOs in Korea appear to be a step in the right direction. 
  • However, these measures are likely to negatively impact new rights offerings and IPOs in 2025. Various trading strategies involving rights offerings and new IPOs may need to be revised.

CX Daily: How Cryptocurrency Gets Used to Move Billions of Yuan in and out of China

By Caixin Global

  • Cryptocurrencies / In Depth: How cryptocurrency gets used to move billions of yuan in and out of China
  • Corruption /: New probe into former Hubei leader brought down by Covid pandemic
  • Trade /: Washington wants to seal new trade deal with Beijing, ex-U.S. Treasury Secretary says

The Case for Europe

By Trillions

  • Europe is outperforming the US in terms of stock market performance this year
  • Valuations in the US are high, while Europe is trading at a historic discount
  • Expectations for US companies are high, while Europe’s expectations are low, leading to potential momentum shifts between the two regions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


ECB Meeting Accounts – January 2025

By Heteronomics AI

  • The ECB emphasised a cautious and data-dependent approach in the account of its January rate cut decision. Market expectations were noted to price in a slower rate-cutting cycle, with the end-2025 rate projected at 2.08%.
  • While inflation continues to decline, services inflation remains elevated due to persistent wage growth. The ECB expects wage pressures to moderate, but upside risks, including geopolitical uncertainty and trade disruptions, could delay further easing.
  • Some Governing Council members noted that rates are approaching neutral territory, suggesting limited room for additional cuts. The ECB will assess future moves each meeting, with flexibility to slow or accelerate easing.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 Feb 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • China injects $55 billion into banks, boosting lending and infrastructure investments.

  • Korea and Thailand cut interest rates to stimulate struggling business sectors.

  • Hong Kong reduces government expenditure while India aims for higher economic growth with necessary reforms.


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