Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms.

Samsung Bioepis Holdings and Samsung Biologics to Start Trading on 24 November

By Douglas Kim

Samsung Bioepis Holdings and Samsung Biologics will start to trade on 24 November. We remain positive on Samsung Biologics/Samsung Bioepis Holdings.
Operating profit more than doubled, up 115.3% YoY in 3Q25, indicating significant operating leverage. The company’s excellent results in 3Q25 is likely to positive impact the newly listed shares.
Biologics division achieved 1.26 trillion won in sales with a 50% operating margin, while the Bioepis unit generated sales of 441 billion won with a 29% operating margin in 3Q25.

Smart Share (EM US): On Stonewalling Hillhouse’s Offer

After seven months had elapsed since receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer (an MBO) had been entered into.
The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, is offering US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
Hillhouse upped the ante with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. The share price hasn’t closed below US$1.25/share since; but the reason may not just hinge on Hillhouse firming its Offer.

Thai Pledged Shares In October 2025

As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
Pledging in those shares – in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex – have been static, to down, in the month of October.
Recent big-ish moves were seen in Siam City Cement (SCCC TB) (up), Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) (up); Next Capital (NCAP TB) (down) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) (down).

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Nov 21

Daily Brief Singapore: Grindr , UltraGreen.AI, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Elite UK REIT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting
UltraGreen.AI Pre-IPO: Dominant Market Position Amid Favorable Industry Tailwind to Drive Growth
Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Likely to Remain Rangebound in November
Primer: Elite UK REIT (ELITE SP) – Nov 2025

Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting

Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms.

UltraGreen.AI Pre-IPO: Dominant Market Position Amid Favorable Industry Tailwind to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

UltraGreen.AI Has filed for Singapore IPO. The IPO will consist of fresh issue as well as OFS from Renew Group Private Limited. Citigroup and DBS Bank are the joint bookrunners.
The company intends to use the IPO proceeds for funding the capex and development of the products, and pursuing strategic investments and acquisitions to support expansion plans in new geographies.
Ultragreen’s strong competitive moat, track record of revenue growth and margin expansion, and significant cash generation position it for continued success and leadership in the fluorescence-guided surgery-based imaging market.

Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Likely to Remain Rangebound in November

By Arusha Das

Highlights

Choppy and rangebound price movement expected in November
Narrowing SIR 20 vs INE spread could encourage substitution
September import and export trend diverged
Downstream restocking was selective rather than programmatic, leaving spot premiums capped

Primer: Elite UK REIT (ELITE SP) – Nov 2025

By αSK

Elite UK REIT offers a unique, counter-cyclical investment proposition with a portfolio of 148 properties primarily leased to the UK Government, providing stable, sovereign-backed cash flows.
The REIT’s primary risk is its high tenant concentration, with the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) being the main lessee. Management is actively mitigating this by diversifying into growth sectors such as Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) and data centres.
Trading at a discount to its Net Asset Value and offering a high dividend yield, the REIT presents an attractive valuation, though this is balanced by risks associated with its high gearing and the uncertainty of future DWP lease renewals beyond 2028.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Microsoft. Acting Like There’s An AI Bubble Without Saying There’s An AI Bubble and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Microsoft. Acting Like There’s An AI Bubble Without Saying There’s An AI Bubble
Worsening NVIDIA Earnings Quality
NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers
Taiwan Tech Weekly: NVDA Results- Taiwan Supplier Winners; Silicon Valley’s Substrate- TSMC Slayer?
Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY26: Maintaining A 12% Yield With 60% Of Market Cap In Cash
Ulta Beauty Vs CJ Olive Young (Let the Rumble Begin)!
Decoding Asian Paints Execution Supremacy Amidst New Competition
Arista Powers Into Full Rack Solutions—Could Its Blue Box JDM Model Crush Traditional OEMs?
Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Positive Trend Beyond the Results
Formosa Prosonic: Special Dividend of 80 Cents

Microsoft. Acting Like There’s An AI Bubble Without Saying There’s An AI Bubble

By William Keating

Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off “fungible” compute strategy
Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, “jagged” intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth
Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.

Worsening NVIDIA Earnings Quality

By Unfair Advantage

The market waited with bated breath as NVIDIA released their quarterly earnings yesterday on 19th November, 2025. To almost no one’s surprise, they beat the estimates again.
The company is a juggernaut to say the least and has added $1.9 Trillion in market cap in the last 8 months!
That is more than Tesla or Meta’s market cap themselves. The statistics are almost unbelievable.

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA’s Smooth Transition to GB300
NVIDIA’s Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem

Taiwan Tech Weekly: NVDA Results- Taiwan Supplier Winners; Silicon Valley’s Substrate- TSMC Slayer?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers
NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive
Silicon Valley’s Substrate — ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY26: Maintaining A 12% Yield With 60% Of Market Cap In Cash

By Sameer Taneja

Oriental Watch (398 HK) maintained its dividend yield of ~12% (annualized), declaring 20.8 HKD cents of dividend for H1FY26. Cash and Investments were ~ HKD1 billion (60% of market cap).
The company highlighted that the environment is challenging, given trade wars and tempered HK/Chinese demand. On our conservative numbers, the stock trades at 8.6x FY26PE.
Oriental Watch (398 HK) will maintain its high dividend payout ratio of ~100%. Over the past 8 years, the company paid dividends of 3.8 HKD/share (> the current share price).

Ulta Beauty Vs CJ Olive Young (Let the Rumble Begin)!

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss how Olive Young is likely to be a serious long-term threat to Ulta Beauty (ULTA US) (market cap of US$22.3 billion) in the United States.
CJ Corp is the largest shareholder of CJ Olive Young. On 19 November, CJ Olive Young announced that it plans to open its first store in California in May 2026.
There is a growing probability that CJ Olive Young could successfully grow its business in the US, especially due to the continued strong demand for Korean cosmetics.

Decoding Asian Paints Execution Supremacy Amidst New Competition

Asian Paints achieved a 7-quarter high in Q2FY26 with 10.9% domestic volume growth, driven by easing raw material costs and strategic integration, leading to a 2% margin expansion.
Despite heavy monsoons, strong execution drove a double-digit volume rebound, signaling stabilized consumer demand. This coupled with a key competitor’s executive loss, validates the firm’s defensive market position.
Asian Paints’ strong performance deserves a premium valuation but justifying it hinges on the perfect execution of its backward integration project and defending its competitive position.

Arista Powers Into Full Rack Solutions—Could Its Blue Box JDM Model Crush Traditional OEMs?

Arista Networks reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, achieving a record revenue of $2.31 billion, a year-over-year increase of 27.5%.
This growth was supported by the increasing demand for their networking solutions, particularly in the AI and cloud segments.
Notably, Arista’s software and services accounted for approximately 18.7% of the quarter’s revenue, reflecting the company’s strategic emphasis on diversifying its revenue streams beyond hardware.

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Positive Trend Beyond the Results

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s 1H FY25/26 profit came in at the top-end of the guidance. Its 3Q sales growth has so far increased 11.3%, a further acceleration.
Hong Kong and Macau should capture some of the diverted traffic as Sino-Japanese relations soured, while a weaker USD, as rates are cut, should make shopping cheaper.
With its ROE reaching 10-13% in FY26-28F (the best ones since FY21), its 5-year-low P/B multiple makes the stock a bargain.

Formosa Prosonic: Special Dividend of 80 Cents

By Punit Khanna

Formosa Prosonic announced an 80-cent Special Dividend as the management decided to return excess cash
3rd quarter results showed EPS of 7.92 cents, though there is a gain on the sale of PPE of 35% of profits
Management but given the stock trading below cash we remain positive on the stock

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All proceeds from the publication of this report will be donated to support people with disabilities in Singapore. If you find this report valuable, we invite you to support our campaign, “Raising Money for Persons with Disabilities in Singapore.” Every contribution directly benefits the Goh Chok Tong Enable Fund and qualifies for a 250% tax deduction for Singapore tax residents.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief United States: Microsoft Corp, NVIDIA Corp, Arista Networks, Alliance Laundry Holdings, Qorvo Inc, Hims & Hers Health Inc, Exelon Corp, Marriott International, Central Bancompany and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Microsoft. Acting Like There’s An AI Bubble Without Saying There’s An AI Bubble
Worsening NVIDIA Earnings Quality
NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers
Arista Powers Into Full Rack Solutions—Could Its Blue Box JDM Model Crush Traditional OEMs?
US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025
Qorvo Inc: Supercharging Its 5G Strategy With a Premium Smartphone RF Power Play; But Will It Work?
Hims & Hers Health: A Notable Shift Toward Core
Exelon Inside: What Its Smart Grid and Energy Efficiency Push Means for Investors Now!
Marriott’s Growth Blueprint: How Will Bonvoy, Tech, & Global Expansion Shape Its Next Decade?
Central Bancompany (CBC): Posts Strong First-Day Performance as It Transitions From OTC to Nasdaq

Microsoft. Acting Like There’s An AI Bubble Without Saying There’s An AI Bubble

By William Keating

Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off “fungible” compute strategy
Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, “jagged” intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth
Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.

Worsening NVIDIA Earnings Quality

By Unfair Advantage

The market waited with bated breath as NVIDIA released their quarterly earnings yesterday on 19th November, 2025. To almost no one’s surprise, they beat the estimates again.
The company is a juggernaut to say the least and has added $1.9 Trillion in market cap in the last 8 months!
That is more than Tesla or Meta’s market cap themselves. The statistics are almost unbelievable.

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA’s Smooth Transition to GB300
NVIDIA’s Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem

Arista Powers Into Full Rack Solutions—Could Its Blue Box JDM Model Crush Traditional OEMs?

Arista Networks reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, achieving a record revenue of $2.31 billion, a year-over-year increase of 27.5%.
This growth was supported by the increasing demand for their networking solutions, particularly in the AI and cloud segments.
Notably, Arista’s software and services accounted for approximately 18.7% of the quarter’s revenue, reflecting the company’s strategic emphasis on diversifying its revenue streams beyond hardware.

US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 August to 31 October will get added to a major US index in December 2025.
The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of market cap are Bullish US (BLSH US), FT Intermediate (FIGR US) and Fermi (FRMI US).
The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of passive fund impact include Legence (LGN US), Via Transportation (VIA US) and Avidia Bancorp (AVBC US).

Qorvo Inc: Supercharging Its 5G Strategy With a Premium Smartphone RF Power Play; But Will It Work?

Qorvo, Inc.’s fiscal second-quarter results for 2026 showed solid performance, although there are mixed signals in terms of the outlook and strategic focus.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.059 billion, with non-GAAP gross margins at 49.7% and earnings per share at $2.22, all surpassing the company’s guidance.
However, the company faces challenges due to its restructuring efforts and a strategic pivot away from the lower-margin Android segment.

Hims & Hers Health: A Notable Shift Toward Core

Hims & Hers Health recently reported its third-quarter results for 2025, showcasing both potential opportunities and challenges as the company expands its footprint in the healthcare sector.
The company reported substantial revenue growth of nearly 49% year-over-year, reaching close to $600 million, a reflection of its strategic shift towards personalized healthcare solutions.
However, despite this impressive growth trajectory, several factors warrant a closer look.

Exelon Inside: What Its Smart Grid and Energy Efficiency Push Means for Investors Now!

Exelon Corporation reported notable financial and operational outcomes for the third quarter of 2025, achieving earnings of $0.86 per share, an increase from $0.71 in the previous year’s third quarter.
This performance exceeds expectations due to warmer weather and favorable storm conditions.
Despite inflationary pressures and variable interest expenses, Exelon reaffirms its full-year operating earnings guidance between $2.64 and $2.74 per share, aiming to meet or surpass the midpoint of this range.

Marriott’s Growth Blueprint: How Will Bonvoy, Tech, & Global Expansion Shape Its Next Decade?

Marriott International’s third-quarter 2025 results demonstrate a mixed performance with several key indicators reflecting the broader intricacies of the global hospitality market.
On the positive side, Marriott reported financial outcomes that exceeded previous expectations, driven largely by a solid development pipeline and significant portfolio growth.
The company expanded its room repertoire by 4.7% year-over-year, reaching over 1.75 million rooms across more than 9,700 properties worldwide.

Central Bancompany (CBC): Posts Strong First-Day Performance as It Transitions From OTC to Nasdaq

By IPO Boutique

CBC priced at the low end and delivered a steady first-day performance, a strong outcome for an OTC up-listing with limited float.
Investor demand was multiple-times oversubscribed, driven by long-only and sector specialists, with the family retaining majority control and offering only 7.4% of shares.
Near-Term trading is expected to quiet sharply, with the stock likely to move in line with broader regional bank sector trends rather than company-specific catalysts.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief Crypto: If the ETF Era Made Bitcoin Investable and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

If the ETF Era Made Bitcoin Investable, the 401(k) Era Could Make It Unavoidable

If the ETF Era Made Bitcoin Investable, the 401(k) Era Could Make It Unavoidable

By Delphi Digital

This report argues that the August 2025 Executive Order allowing Bitcoin inside 401(k) plans is a structural breakthrough — potentially more transformative than the ETF approvals.
While ETFs made Bitcoin easy to buy, 401(k) integration ties BTC to the U.S.’s largest savings engine: $9.3 trillion in employer retirement plans funded automatically every paycheck.
Unlike ETF flows that rise and fall with sentiment, 401(k) contributions are programmatic, recurring, and extremely sticky — with 95% of participants never changing allocations.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief China: Smart Share Global, Oriental Watch, JD.com , Sa Sa International Hldgs, Axbio International, ZTO Express Cayman , Lenovo Group Ltd Adr, ATRenew and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Smart Share (EM US): On Stonewalling Hillhouse’s Offer
Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY26: Maintaining A 12% Yield With 60% Of Market Cap In Cash
JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment
Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Positive Trend Beyond the Results
Axbio (安序源) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges
ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
RERE: 3Q25 Earnings

Smart Share (EM US): On Stonewalling Hillhouse’s Offer

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

After seven months had elapsed since receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer (an MBO) had been entered into.
The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, is offering US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
Hillhouse upped the ante with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. The share price hasn’t closed below US$1.25/share since; but the reason may not just hinge on Hillhouse firming its Offer.

Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY26: Maintaining A 12% Yield With 60% Of Market Cap In Cash

By Sameer Taneja

Oriental Watch (398 HK) maintained its dividend yield of ~12% (annualized), declaring 20.8 HKD cents of dividend for H1FY26. Cash and Investments were ~ HKD1 billion (60% of market cap).
The company highlighted that the environment is challenging, given trade wars and tempered HK/Chinese demand. On our conservative numbers, the stock trades at 8.6x FY26PE.
Oriental Watch (398 HK) will maintain its high dividend payout ratio of ~100%. Over the past 8 years, the company paid dividends of 3.8 HKD/share (> the current share price).

JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Over the past few trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Highlights: Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon, with approximately 40% of all strategies employing weekly options. Bearish views dominate with almost 70% of strategies being put spreads.
Why read: This Insight breaks down complex option strategies and sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Positive Trend Beyond the Results

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s 1H FY25/26 profit came in at the top-end of the guidance. Its 3Q sales growth has so far increased 11.3%, a further acceleration.
Hong Kong and Macau should capture some of the diverted traffic as Sino-Japanese relations soured, while a weaker USD, as rates are cut, should make shopping cheaper.
With its ROE reaching 10-13% in FY26-28F (the best ones since FY21), its 5-year-low P/B multiple makes the stock a bargain.

Axbio (安序源) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Axbio, a China-based technology company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CICC and SPDB are the joint sponsors.
In our previous note, we look at the products and management team briefly. Although there are interesting takes from the prospectus, we are not convinced about its prospects.
In this note, we took a further look and are of the view that the company is behind the curve of competition despite its incremental innovation in PCR-microarray.

ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

By Daniel Hellberg

ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19
Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins
On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
UST yields rose 2-3 bps across the curve yesterday, as the release of hawkish-leaning October Fed meeting minutes cast doubts over a rate cut in December.
This was despite a solid auction of 20Y notes. Yields on USTs rose 2 bps each, to 3.59% for the 2Y and 4.14% for the 10Y. Equities halted a four-day slide, after Nvidia reported solid Q3/25-26 results and gave a strong revenue forecast. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.4% and 0.6% to 6,642 and 22,564, respectively.

RERE: 3Q25 Earnings

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Key 3Q25 takeaways include: 1) trade-in scenarios remain a key driver of transaction volume growth, with building demand for RERE’s programs given rising prices for new devices, as well as the company’s focus on optimizing pricing, elevating user experiences, and stepped-up branding initiatives 2) in addition to the company’s door-to-door fulfillment capabilities, RERE’s growing network of AHS stores continues to drive enhanced accessibility and more favorable economics, with 1,000+ locations now offering multi-category recycling services and 3) a key priority for senior management remains building the AHS brand to raise customer awareness, enhance loyalty, and support engagement, with specific initiatives including partnering with consumer brands and deepening community relationships to position AHS as the leading recycling ecosystem.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief Indonesia: Criterium Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Gas development on track. Capex to first gas guidance reduced again

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Gas development on track. Capex to first gas guidance reduced again

By Auctus Advisors

Pipeline construction for the SE-MGH 5–7 mmcf/d development is scheduled to begin in early 2026, with first gas expected in 1H26.
Capex has been reduced further to US$2–3 mm (from US$2.5–4 mm), of which US$1.7 mm has already been spent.
The subsequent North MGH development (incremental capex of ~US$1 mm) would lift total production to 7–10 mmcf/d.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief Macro: Asian Equities: A Correction and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up
Japan: The New Takaichi Trade, SELL THE RIP!
US: Resilient Into Shutdown
Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Likely to Remain Rangebound in November
CX Daily: China’s Pharma Pioneers in Africa Dig In for the Long Haul
Myanmar Rubber Steps into 2026 Aiming Productivity Push
Oil futures: Prices lower after volatile session amid Russia talks

Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.
Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing.
AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers’ cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.

Japan: The New Takaichi Trade, SELL THE RIP!

By David Mudd

Sentiment in Japan has reversed sharply showing strains in the JPY and JGB markets. The Nikkei 225 has retraced all its gains since the election of Prime Minister Takaichi.
The market is nervous about the size of Takaichi’s economic package, which will be ¥21.3 trillion; 27%. more than her predecessor pledged. It will increase bond issuance substantially.
Tensions from Takaichi’s provocation of China show no sign of easing. China has started economic and other measures to respond. The US has removed a missile launcher from Japan.

US: Resilient Into Shutdown

By Phil Rush

US payroll data revealed resilience going into the US government shutdown, with jobs growth the strongest since April and annualising to a pace capable of plateauing growth.
Surging labour force participation drove unemployment up in the least disappointing way, with the employment to population ratio making a contradictory improvement.
Jobless claims suggest stability into the shutdown’s end, besides noisy federal claims. The FOMC may not get the evidence it needs to cut again in December. It may not exist.

Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Likely to Remain Rangebound in November

By Arusha Das

Highlights

Choppy and rangebound price movement expected in November
Narrowing SIR 20 vs INE spread could encourage substitution
September import and export trend diverged
Downstream restocking was selective rather than programmatic, leaving spot premiums capped

CX Daily: China’s Pharma Pioneers in Africa Dig In for the Long Haul

By Caixin Global

In Depth: China’s Pharma Pioneers in Africa Dig In for the Long Haul
AI and Data Offer China, EU Space to Cooperate as Trade Tensions Rise
China’s State-Owned Financial Institutions Brace for Pay Cuts

Myanmar Rubber Steps into 2026 Aiming Productivity Push

By Vinod Nedumudy

Highlights

• Ambitious yield goals target 1120 kg/ha

• China still takes around three-quarters

• Replanting financing remains a pivotal constraint

Production and yield dynamics in 2025 show rubber remains one of Myanmar’s industrial cornerstone crops. Available estimates place annual output around 300,000-350,000 metric tons, out of a total plantation area of over 600,000 hectares.

Oil futures: Prices lower after volatile session amid Russia talks

Crude oil futures closed slightly lower Thursday following another choppy session amid huge uncertainty around sanctions on Russia, plus a mooted peace deal.
Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.34/b (1953 GMT) versus the prior settle of $63.51/b, while Jan25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.01/b against a previous close of $59.25/b.
Benchmarks again tested one-week lows on rising US inventories and reports that the US was brokering a Russia-Ukraine truce, a move that would lower the geopolitical risk premium.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief India: Asian Paints, KEC International, Vedanta Resources, Canara Bank, JSW Cement Limited, Ethos , Aarti Pharmalabs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Decoding Asian Paints Execution Supremacy Amidst New Competition
Temporary Shock, Structural Strength: Why KEC’s Upcycle Still Holds
Primer: Vedanta Resources (VED LN) – Nov 2025
The Beat Ideas: Is Canara Bank’s Compounder Thesis Intact Amid NIM Compression?
JSW Cement: The Green Giant’s Blueprint for Aggressive Expansion and Margin Re-Rating
Primer: Ethos ( ETHOSLTD IN) – Nov 2025
Primer: Aarti Pharmalabs (AARTIPHA IN) – Nov 2025

Decoding Asian Paints Execution Supremacy Amidst New Competition

Asian Paints achieved a 7-quarter high in Q2FY26 with 10.9% domestic volume growth, driven by easing raw material costs and strategic integration, leading to a 2% margin expansion.
Despite heavy monsoons, strong execution drove a double-digit volume rebound, signaling stabilized consumer demand. This coupled with a key competitor’s executive loss, validates the firm’s defensive market position.
Asian Paints’ strong performance deserves a premium valuation but justifying it hinges on the perfect execution of its backward integration project and defending its competitive position.

Temporary Shock, Structural Strength: Why KEC’s Upcycle Still Holds

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) has barred KEC from new tenders for nine months starting November 18, 2025, though ongoing Rs.39,000 crore plus projects is unaffected.
KEC’s diverse orders limit PGCIL’s impact, PGCIL’s share in new orders is only 4% YTD, much lower than last year.
KEC’s Q2 success counters the PGCIL ban. With strong Q2 results and 8% FY26 margin guidance, the focus is now on execution and cash flow from its global pipeline.

Primer: Vedanta Resources (VED LN) – Nov 2025

By αSK

Vedanta Resources is a globally diversified natural resources company with a strong foothold in India, focused on zinc, aluminium, oil and gas, and other base metals. The company is currently undergoing a significant strategic transformation, including a planned demerger of its primary businesses into separate listed entities to unlock value and attract investment.
The company has been aggressively deleveraging its balance sheet, having reduced debt at the parent level significantly over the past few years. Recent credit rating upgrades from agencies like S&P Global reflect improved financial flexibility and easing refinancing risks, supported by strong operational cash flows and successful bond issuances.
Future growth is centered on a $20 billion, four-year investment plan focused on India, targeting expansion in technology, electronics, and semiconductors, alongside its core commodities. This ambitious plan aims to capitalize on India’s economic growth but faces execution risks and is dependent on volatile commodity markets.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

The Beat Ideas: Is Canara Bank’s Compounder Thesis Intact Amid NIM Compression?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Canara Bank reported a robust Q2 FY26, defying sector-wide headwinds. The headline surprise was the sharp asset quality improvement, with GNPA collapsing to 2.35% and NNPA at a pristine 0.54%.
The bank has successfully pivoted from “balance sheet repair” to “sustainable compounder.” While NII is flat, the bank is offsetting this with volume growth and 42% jump in non-interest income.
With the “bad bank” legacy officially buried(PCR >93%), the narrative now shifts to value unlocking. The listing of subsidiaries and the decline in credit costs makes the current valuation attractive.

JSW Cement: The Green Giant’s Blueprint for Aggressive Expansion and Margin Re-Rating