Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks. 
• The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life. 
• There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

• AP Liberty (Apollo) is looking to raise US$170m from selling out its stake in Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) .
• This selldown comes on the heels of a previous selldown in September 2024 ; Apollo is conducting a clean-up sale now.
• In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

• While FWD has achieved strong growth in certain key markets, its overall new business growth rate didn’t differ significantly from the peers, AIA and Prudential.
• Compared to the peers, it offers more exposure to Thailand/Cambodia, in terms of APE and VNB mix. But, the peers still have better scale in these markets.
• We struggle to develop the thesis unless FWD’s valuation is really attractive. It’s also not expecting to pay any dividends in the near future while both peers do.

• The KOSPI 200 INDEX has been rising > 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung’s won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.
• Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392. The KOSPI 200 reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought. 
• Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.

• According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with good diversification from long-only accounts.
• Looking at the financial metrics of this company, they wrote premiums of $1.33b in 2024 which was a 52.5% increase from 2023. 
• The success of the insurance sector as a whole including the strong performance of Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC US)  last week will only further enhance the optics of this IPO.

• Indutrade AB’s recent quarterly earnings present a nuanced picture of its current operational and financial health.
• The company reported a 5% organic growth in order intake amidst an uncertain market environment.
• This was primarily driven by strong demand in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, the broader process industry, and energy.

Partners Group Private Equity Ltd’s (PEY’s) NAV total return (TR) improved after a weaker period to 11.4% in FY24 in euro terms. It was bolstered by the successful exit of SRS Distribution (sold to Home Depot), three IPOs and solid business traction of holdings such as International Schools Partnerships (ISP) and DiversiTech. PEY’s NAV fell by 6.5% in the first four months of 2025, mostly due to fx and the de-rating of listed holdings (KinderCare Learning Companies in particular). PEY’s board made good progress in its agenda to enhance shareholder value. In FY24, it rolled out a well-structured capital allocation framework, which, on top of regular dividends, allows it to use part of PEY’s free cash flow for buybacks. The board also renegotiated PEY’s fee structure with a favourable change to the base for calculating its management and performance fee. New members joined the board and PEY scaled up its engagement with shareholders.

• A weekly roundup of key option and price metrics for Hong Kong single stocks.
• Gains were broad-based again, though participation was slightly lower than the prior week.
• We discuss the increase in Put open interest which has been trending higher over the past month.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Tata Motors
• US Treasury yields rose 3-5 bps across the curve on Friday, as the surge in oil prices amid the Iran-Israel conflict stoked renewed inflation concerns. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 4 bps to 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 4 bps to 4.40%.
• Equities retreated, with tech- and travel-related stocks declining, while energy producers and defence stocks rose. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,977, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.3% to 19,407.