Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published on Smartkarma.
• In this cut, we unveil the first wave of 2026 high conviction ideas, break down the risks and rewards of the Meesho IPO and track upcoming lock-up expiries.
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

• TSMC: +26.1% Premium; Remains at Level Rarely Maintained for More Than a Week; Good Level to Short the Spread
• UMC: +2.5% Premium; Historically Rare Level is a Short Opportunity
• ASE: +2.9% Premium; Wait Better Short Opportunity at Higher Levels

• A tactical snapshot of the Asian and US indices and stocks we cover.
• Many Asian and US stocks are getting overbought. Wednesday’s Fed meeting is a potential volatility trigger, consider hedging or short exposure.
• China Mobile (941 HK), Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Amazon (AMZN US) are the only stocks a bit oversold, possibly worth considering for LONG trades, at the moment.

• Based on 2025 revenue forecast of RMB24.1bn and the IPO price range, P/S is about 1.28-1.56x, higher than ZKH but lower than Ww Grainger. This is a reasonable valuation range.
• The median IPO price range (HK$14.1/share) is a more likely/relatively safe outcome.This not only acknowledges JD Industrials’ leading position/growth story, but also partly reflects the market’s perception of its challenges.
• The IPO pricing is the result of seeking a balance between the “premium of industry leaders” and “its shortcomings”.However, future valuation depends on whether JD Industrials can solve fundamental issues.

• freee (44778 JP — US$1.1 billion) is a Japanese developer of cloud accounting software.
• It was founded by a former Google executive called Daisuke (“Dice”) Sasaki, who had also run a start-up.
• Sasaki was shocked at how inefficient accounting processes were at his previous firm and other small- and medium-sized enterprises.

• Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing.
• According to Frost & Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Money Forward is a leading Japanese fintech company capitalizing on the nation’s push for digitalization through its dual-engine model: a popular personal financial management (PFM) app for individuals and a comprehensive suite of cloud-based SaaS solutions for businesses.
• The company is demonstrating a strategic shift towards profitability, evidenced by improving EBITDA margins and a focus on core business operations, including strategic divestitures and a joint venture with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG).
• While revenue growth remains robust, driven by a strong position in the expanding Japanese SaaS market, the company faces challenges related to achieving consistent net profitability, high valuation multiples, and intense competition.

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• Freee K.K. is a dominant player in Japan’s burgeoning cloud-based software market for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), offering integrated accounting and HR solutions.
• The company has recently achieved a significant turnaround to profitability after years of prioritizing growth, demonstrating the viability of its subscription-based business model.
• Strong secular tailwinds, including a government-led push for digitalization and the introduction of a new e-invoicing system, provide a long runway for sustained growth in a largely underpenetrated market.

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• Dominant Market Leader with Strong Content Slate: MD Pictures is Indonesia’s largest film production house, consistently delivering box office hits like ‘KKN di Desa Penari’, the highest-grossing Indonesian film of all time. The company has demonstrated a strong track record of producing commercially successful films, particularly in the horror genre, and has maintained a leading market share of local film viewership.
• Strategic Pivot to Digital and OTT Platforms: Recognizing the immense growth in the digital space, FILM has aggressively expanded its revenue streams beyond theatrical releases. The company has secured multi-year licensing contracts with major local and international OTT platforms, including Disney+Hotstar, Netflix, and WeTV, with digital distribution now accounting for a significant portion of revenue.
• Favorable Industry Tailwinds vs. Intensifying Competition: The Indonesian film market is poised for substantial growth, driven by a rising middle class, increasing disposable income, and a growing preference for local content. However, the industry is becoming more competitive, with a few major players dominating distribution channels and the threat of market oversaturation as more films are produced annually.

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• Shenzhen H&T Intelligent is a major manufacturer of intelligent controllers for home appliances and power tools, strategically expanding into high-growth areas like automotive electronics and the Internet of Things (IoT).
• The company exhibits a strong long-term revenue growth trajectory, with a 10-year CAGR of 27.27%; however, recent performance shows significant margin compression and a concerning 3-year decline in net income and EPS.
• Valuation appears stretched, with a P/E ratio of 46.3x, which seems elevated given the recent deterioration in profitability and negative free cash flow, suggesting a high-risk, high-growth investment profile.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.