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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Sanyo Special Steel, Gold, Chuoh Pack Industry, Crude Oil, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, TotalEnergies, Itochu Enex, Petroleos Mexicanos, Allegiant Gold , Infinity Natural Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Steal! Again. Parent Takes Out Sanyo Special Steel (5481) At Well Below Book
  • The Best of Hedgeye: Jim Rickards → Why Gold Is Going To $10,000
  • Nikkon Pays 273% Premium for Chuoh Pack (3952 JP) In Takeover
  • [ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts
  • Rubber Board Launches Twin Projects To Propel Indian NR
  • [Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices
  • Itochu Enex (8133 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Pemex: Lack of Concrete Action Weights on the Outperform Thesis
  • Allegiant Gold Ltd – Mining Monthly: January Edition
  • Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Buyers Step In Marking Second Winning Energy IPO


Nippon Steal! Again. Parent Takes Out Sanyo Special Steel (5481) At Well Below Book

By Travis Lundy

  • 6-7 years ago Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) bought out a large foreign specialty steel company, and funded it by getting Nippon Steel to inject capital at below book. 
  • Now Nippon Steel is buying the rest of Sanyo Special Steel in a Tender Offer at 0.66x book, where most of book is Net Receivables, Inventory, WIP, and Materials.
  • This is the second time in a decade where the Board has decided to sell control of itself at far below book value. They should be ashamed of themselves.

The Best of Hedgeye: Jim Rickards → Why Gold Is Going To $10,000

By Real Conversations

  • The book discusses new arguments for investing in gold in the modern era, including the threat of cyber financial warfare.
  • The hosts discuss the book’s exploration of notable advocates and critics of gold investment, including Milton Friedman and Roubini.
  • Emphasizing the new arguments in favor of gold investment in the 21st century alongside traditional reasons

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Nikkon Pays 273% Premium for Chuoh Pack (3952 JP) In Takeover

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP) announced it would take over Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP) for ¥5,034/share. It closed today at ¥1,349. This is a HUGE win for governance.
  • The 273% premium is not the big win here. For holders it is, of course, but for Japan Inc shareholders everywhere, the win was the auction process. 
  • This could have come out at 100% premium and that might have been OK. As it is, cross-holders and one big holder together get this deal done. Congrats!

[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 24/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 3.5m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 321 Bcf for the week ending 24/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 317 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Shell’s Q4 adjusted earnings dropped 38.3% QoQ and 49.9% YoY, missing estimates due to weak margins and oil prices. HSBC raised its PT on Chevron but cut it for Exxon.

Rubber Board Launches Twin Projects To Propel Indian NR

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • iSNR (Indian Sustainable Natural Rubber) to deal with EUDR  
  • INR Konnect to help idling plantations come alive  
  • iSNR to fetch a premium of 10-35% in global markets  

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

By Suhas Reddy

  • TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.
  • TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.
  • TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.

Itochu Enex (8133 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales revenue was JPY678.3bn (-4.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY23.0bn (+2.2% YoY).
  • Home-Life Division sales revenue rose to JPY52.5bn (+5.7% YoY), driven by higher LP gas import prices.
  • Power and Utility Division sales revenue declined to JPY58.3bn (-36.0% YoY) due to decreased market transactions.

Pemex: Lack of Concrete Action Weights on the Outperform Thesis

By Leandro Gubler

  • We need to see concrete action from the Mexican government to maintain an Outperform recommendation.
  • Pemex’s deteriorating operational metrics will likely increase its need for government assistance.
  • Within Pemex’s capital structure, we continue to prefer the PEMEX (B3/BBB/B+) 5.950% 2031, the PEMEX 6.625% 2035, the PEMEX 6.625% 2038, and the PEMEX 7.690% 2050.

Allegiant Gold Ltd – Mining Monthly: January Edition

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • Following two months of poor returns, the metals and mining market rose sharply in January as tariff uncertainties rose and the treasury yields decreased.
  • • In January, gold was up 6%, silver was up 7%, and copper was up 7%.
  • The equities exhibited leverage to the commodity price increases, with the GDX up 16%, GDXJ up 15%, and SILJ up 10%.

Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Buyers Step In Marking Second Winning Energy IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Throughout the week, Infinity Natural Resources had to manage the Venture Global (VG) headwind — a previously broken IPO from the energy sector. 
  • While there was pushback on valuation with some buyside investors, Infinity Natural Resources was able to successfully convey their story.
  • There has now been three energy IPOs in 2025 with two winners.

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Daily Brief Financials: Ascot Corp, Banco De Sabadell SA, NSE Nifty Bank Index, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, S&P/ASX 200, ZKsync, Resona Holdings, Orient Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Daito Trust Buys Out Listed Private Co Ascot (3264 JP) – Small Done Deal at ¥260
  • Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal
  • Sabadell’s Dividend Strategy and the BBVA Takeover Bid
  • EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index – Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (3 February 2025)
  • EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Option Opportunities Across the Regions
  • EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy –  Today’s All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging
  • ZKsync & The Elastic Network Endgame
  • Resona Holdings (8308 JP) – Positive 3QFY24 Results
  • Orient Corp (8585 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update


Daito Trust Buys Out Listed Private Co Ascot (3264 JP) – Small Done Deal at ¥260

By Travis Lundy

  • Ping An Insurance bought into a small Tokyo-based condo developer in 2017 at ¥255/share. In 2020, it reinvested on the dip with SBI at ¥155/share.
  • Ping An and SBI started with zero shares. By 2020 they had 80+% of shares. Now they are selling out to Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP)
  • This is a done deal at a slight premium to book value. Daito Trust buys Real Estate Available for Sale and assumes debt. That’s it. Easy peasy done deal. 

Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Ascot Corp (3264 JP) announced a tender offer from Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP) at JPY260 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close.
  • Ascot currently does not meet the 25% tradeable share ratio criterion. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges but below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
  • This is a done deal, as irrevocables represent an 82.78% ownership ratio, well above the minimum acceptance condition (67.86% ownership ratio).  

Sabadell’s Dividend Strategy and the BBVA Takeover Bid

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sabadell plans a €500 million share buyback to maintain stock value, reducing the attractiveness of BBVA’s exchange offer and increasing shareholder resistance to the takeover.
  • Regulatory scrutiny intensifies as BBVA-Sabadell would control 39.63% of Catalonian banking credit, raising competition concerns, particularly in SME lending and payment services.
  • The market expects BBVA to raise its offer by 10-20%, but BBVA’s CEO insists there is “no room” for improvement, making shareholder approval uncertain.

EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index – Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • NSE Nifty Bank Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
  • Putting implied volatility into context with the NSE Nifty Bank Index 200 day moving average will lead to a different conclusion. Selling volatility might not be the opportunity it seems.
  • This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which level implied volatility can be assessed as rich.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (3 February 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 3 February.
  • The top 10 stock picks include Orion Holdings, OCI Holdings, Hana Tour Service, Hyundai Motor, KT Corp, Samsung F&M Insurance, Korean Air, Hankook T&T, Young Poong, and NICE Info Service.
  • Our top 10 Korean stock picks from 17 to 31 January are up on average 2.6%, outperforming KOSPI which is down 0.1% in the same period. 

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Option Opportunities Across the Regions

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Global option markets present a diverse picture, offering a broad opportunity set.
  • Several markets make for good hedging-candidates after a strong January and amid cheap options.
  • Although several Indian indices show high implied volatility, contextual analysis indicates volatility may be fairly priced relative to their bear trends.

EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy –  Today’s All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Today, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) reached a new all-time high while implied volatility is near record low levels. The combination makes for a good opportunity to hedge.
  • Volatility assessment trough conventional volatility metrics and one new chart not seen anywhere else.
  • An actionable example of a put option hedge is presented, striking a balance between protection and cost.

ZKsync & The Elastic Network Endgame

By Delphi Digital

  • This consulting report explores ZKsync’s transformation from a Layer 2 scaling solution into the Elastic Network, a groundbreaking ecosystem of interoperable ZK Chains positioned to revolutionize institutional blockchain adoption.
  • With Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $30B and major players like BlackRock embracing blockchain technology, 2024 has marked unprecedented institutional interest in crypto.
  • However, widespread adoption faces two key challenges: blockchain fragmentation and the inability of public networks to meet institutional requirements for privacy and compliance.

Resona Holdings (8308 JP) – Positive 3QFY24 Results

By Victor Galliano

  • Resona’s 3QFY24 results confirm that it is well geared to higher interest rates in Japan, with its high floating rate loan exposure, low LDR and high BoJ cash balance
  • In addition, management is executing effectively to deliver revenue growth well ahead of opex growth, and NPL trends continue to improve, resulting in sharply lower cost of risk
  • Resona’s equity holdings value to market cap ratio is 36%, the highest of the six biggest Japanese banks by market cap; management is actively divesting holdings to free up capital

Orient Corp (8585 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue rose by JPY13.9bn (+8.2% YoY) to JPY182.5bn, driven by core business growth and new subsidiaries.
  • Operating expenses increased JPY15.4bn (+9.7% YoY) to JPY174.0bn, mainly due to higher SG&A and financing expenses.
  • Recurring profit decreased JPY1.6bn (-15.8% YoY) to JPY8.5bn, with net income impacted by income tax adjustments.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd, Metsera, Sigachi Industries , 23andMe Holding Co, Maze Therapeutics, Olba Healthcare Holdings, Stryker Corp, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Jcr Pharmaceuticals, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: Blue Jet Healthcare- Rising CDMO Player
  • Metsera Inc (MTSR): GLP-1 Boom Comes to the IPO Market with Explosive Debut
  • The Beat Ideas: Sigachi Industries- High Growth, Revenue Diversification, New Category Launch
  • 23andMe On The Brink? Exploring a Potential Sale Amid Financial Struggles!
  • Maze Therapeutics (MAZE): Upsized IPO Slumps in the Aftermarket
  • Olba Healthcare Holdings (2689 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
  • Stryker Corporation: Leveraging Mako Robotic-Assisted Surgeries To Redefine the Industry! – Major Drivers
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Export Drives 2024 Result; Slower Growth Expected In 2025
  • JCR Pharmaceutical (4552 JP): Sluggish 9MFY25 Performance, Guidance Revised Downward
  • Lexicon’s FDA Rejection, Layoffs, and Nasdaq Delisting Threat: Can It Get Acquired?


The Beat Ideas: Blue Jet Healthcare- Rising CDMO Player

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN) is a science-led pharmaceutical company that has evolved into a strategic partner for the CDMO of advanced Pharmaceutical Intermediates and APIs.
  • Company gave a record breaking Q3FY25 primarily driven by capacity expansion in Contrast media and PI Segment. Strong demand for the cardiovascular product was also witnessed.
  • Company commissioned an additional manufacturing block during Q3 FY25 at Ambernath for manufacturing Advance Contrast Media with investment around Rs. 100Mn.

Metsera Inc (MTSR): GLP-1 Boom Comes to the IPO Market with Explosive Debut

By IPO Boutique

  • Metsera (MTSR US), a biotech using peptides to treat obesity, overweight and related conditions opened 41.7% above the issue price. 
  • The company was seeking a specific cash-raise of $275 million and was not looking to allow further dilution.
  • IPOs in the biotech sector are a “sell-the-news” event until we see on the tape otherwise.

The Beat Ideas: Sigachi Industries- High Growth, Revenue Diversification, New Category Launch

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Sigachi Industries (SIGACHI IN)  has increased MCC capacity to 21,700 MTPA and expects to achieve 80-90% utilization by Q4 FY27 from 50% utilization in Q4FY25.
  • Sigachi is increasing its focus on the API segment, with a target of 20-25% revenue contribution in next 2-3 yrs and further expanding to 35-40% of revenue in 3-5 Yrs.
  • Sigachi is introducing new product lines including pharmaceutical coatings like PureCoat and UltraMod and plans to commercialize Croscarmellose Sodium (CCS) by FY26 to enhance drug stability and bioavailability.

23andMe On The Brink? Exploring a Potential Sale Amid Financial Struggles!

By Baptista Research

  • 23andMe’s recent earnings report reveals a period of significant transition and strategic refocus for the company, characterized by financial adjustments, business restructuring, and an evolving operational strategy.
  • These developments present a nuanced view of the company’s current state and future potential in the health genetics and consumer genomics sector.
  • On the positive side, 23andMe reported strides in its overarching goal to achieve cash-flow positivity.

Maze Therapeutics (MAZE): Upsized IPO Slumps in the Aftermarket

By IPO Boutique

  • Maze Therapeutics (MAZE US) upsized its transaction but saw its IPO price dip below issue on day one.
  • A critical piece of information, price guidance, was missing from the final channel check sending a warning message to the market.
  • With the lack of enthusiasm for this IPO during its first session, we would encourage investors to exercise caution on this IPO in the aftermarket.

Olba Healthcare Holdings (2689 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company’s sales and profits are concentrated in Q3 due to medical equipment deliveries to public institutions.
  • Medical Devices and Consumables segment sales rose 7.6% YoY, driven by consumables and strategic regional sales activities.
  • SPD business sales increased 9.8% YoY, with operating profit up 5.3% YoY, despite rising SG&A expenses.

Stryker Corporation: Leveraging Mako Robotic-Assisted Surgeries To Redefine the Industry! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Stryker Corporation reported strong financial performance in its fourth quarter of 2024 and the full fiscal year, demonstrating resilience and robust growth across its business segments.
  • The company’s organic sales growth exceeded 10% for both periods, with U.S. sales growth at 10.6% and international sales at 8.8%.
  • Key drivers included double-digit growth in the Instruments, Endoscopy, Medical, Neuro Cranial, and Trauma and Extremities businesses.

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Export Drives 2024 Result; Slower Growth Expected In 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) announced stellar performance in 2024, with revenue, operating profit, and net income exceeded revised forecasts, all reaching record highs.
  • Export of Hemlibra to Roche increased 45% YoY to ¥304B. Roche is seeing strong uptake of Hemlibra in Europe, where the drug reported double-digit growth.
  • Chugai guided for 2% revenue growth in 2025. Domestic sales are expected to remain flat, while overseas sales are expected to increase 4%. Bottomline to outpace revenue growth.

JCR Pharmaceutical (4552 JP): Sluggish 9MFY25 Performance, Guidance Revised Downward

By Tina Banerjee

  • Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP) revenue dropped 23% to ¥26B during 9MFY25, dragged by lower contractual payments. With higher R&D and SG&A expenses, the company reported operating loss of ¥754M.
  • FY25 Guidance has been revised downwards with revised sales now stands at ¥39B. While product sales remain largely on track, income from contractual payment was revised downward.
  • The heavy dependence on one major product and no major product launch lined up anytime soon poses as a negative on the company’s prospects in near future.

Lexicon’s FDA Rejection, Layoffs, and Nasdaq Delisting Threat: Can It Get Acquired?

By Baptista Research

  • Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing treatments for serious diseases, recently shared their third-quarter 2024 financial results and provided business updates.
  • Among their key areas of activity are their drug programs including INPEFA, ZYNQUISTA, LX9211, and LX9851.
  • This quarter marked significant developments for Lexicon as they continued their strategic initiatives and focused on advancing their pipeline.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Royal Caribbean Cruises, Cota Co Ltd, General Motors, Kimberly Clark, Starbucks Corp, Sysco Corp, Chori Co Ltd, Vince Holding and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Royal Caribbean: An Analysis Of Its Expansion into River Cruising & Other Major Drivers
  • Cota Co Ltd (4923 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • General Motors (GM): Its Electric Vehicle Transition Is A Double-Edged Sword! – Major Drivers
  • Kimberly-Clark: Market Focus & Expansion Strategies As A Primary Growth Accelerator! – Major Drivers
  • Starbucks’ Sales Decline
  • Sysco Corporation: Will It Be Able To Capitalize International Growth Opportunities? – Major Drivers
  • Chori Co Ltd (8014 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • VNCE: Snapping the Store: Bringing Light to End of Winter; Reiterate Buy, $6 PT


Royal Caribbean: An Analysis Of Its Expansion into River Cruising & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Royal Caribbean Group recently reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024.
  • Their performance reflected growth in net yields and operating cash flow, achieving their financial goals ahead of schedule.
  • Their exceptional customer satisfaction scores and robust cash generation highlight successful execution amidst a recovering travel industry.

Cota Co Ltd (4923 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales reached JPY7.4bn (+1.7% YoY), with strong performance from new hair styling products, despite a decline in toiletries.
  • Operating profit was JPY1.7bn (-6.2% YoY), impacted by increased costs in talent acquisition, development, and capital expenditures.
  • Revised FY03/25 forecasts: Sales JPY9.3bn, operating profit JPY1.8bn, due to lower sales expectations and higher expenses.

General Motors (GM): Its Electric Vehicle Transition Is A Double-Edged Sword! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Motors Company (GM) presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and calendar year of 2024, showcasing a series of strategic decisions and market maneuvers that paint a complex picture for potential investors.
  • On the positive side, GM achieved significant growth with a 9% increase in full-year revenue, reaching $187 billion.
  • The company marked a strong presence in the U.S. by becoming the leader in retail, fleet, and total sales, and it reported record figures in EBIT-adjusted, adjusted automotive free cash flow, and EPS diluted adjusted.

Kimberly-Clark: Market Focus & Expansion Strategies As A Primary Growth Accelerator! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kimberly-Clark reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results, highlighting several key elements that provide insight into the company’s current positioning and future prospects.
  • The company unveiled its Powering Care transformation strategy, which restructures its organization into three main segments, aiming for optimized growth and efficiency.
  • This structure hopes to foster an environment conducive to volume and mix-driven growth, targeting expansion ahead of its market categories.

Starbucks’ Sales Decline

By Baptista Research

  • Starbucks Corporation recently reported its first-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, revealing key insights into its current business performance and strategic direction.
  • The company registered revenue of $9.4 billion, a result that was flat compared to the previous year.
  • This came alongside a 4% decline in global comparable store sales, a global operating margin of 11.9%, and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69.

Sysco Corporation: Will It Be Able To Capitalize International Growth Opportunities? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest quarter’s performance for Sysco Corporation showcases a mixed but generally positive period, featuring multiple elements contributing to both growth and challenges.
  • Sysco reported total revenue exceeding $20 billion, marking a 4.5% year-over-year growth, exceeding expectations when compared to the previous quarter.
  • This growth was predominantly driven by U.S. Foodservice volume growth of 1.4% and a seemingly moderate inflation rate of 2.1%.

Chori Co Ltd (8014 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales declined 1.3% YoY to JPY230.3bn, with Chemicals and Machinery segments experiencing significant drops in sales.
  • Pre-tax interim profit rose 6.7% YoY to JPY12.7bn, aided by bad debt reversals and investment gains.
  • Chori invested in PT. TAKAHA MULTICHEM INDONESIA, acquiring a 21% stake to expand in Indonesia’s cosmetics market.

VNCE: Snapping the Store: Bringing Light to End of Winter; Reiterate Buy, $6 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $6 price target and projections after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.
  • We believe, after the end of season sale and on the cusp of Spring, Vince is well positioned to continue to drive strong results, with solid fashion offerings, strong inventory position, lower discounting and a continued focus on expanding men’s and other key categories, with current success in belts, winter accessories and small leather goods.
  • As such, and with new management joining the company next month, we reiterate our Buy rating and $6 price target for VNCE.

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Most Read: Fast Retailing, Sigma Healthcare, Areit (AyalaLand REIT), Global Food Creators, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Hanwha Ocean , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Sanyo Special Steel, Ascot Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
  • Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF
  • Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results
  • SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium
  • Nippon Steal! Again. Parent Takes Out Sanyo Special Steel (5481) At Well Below Book
  • Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal


Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

By Travis Lundy

  • Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
  • The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
  • The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

By Brian Freitas


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks

By Brian Freitas

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
  • The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
  • Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

By Brian Freitas


Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Global Food Creators (7559 JP) announced that the CEO would sell his 1.23% of the company into an MBO by a company he set up. 
  • The family company which owns 27%, and he would fund the takeover of the other 73% with 1% equity taken from his share sale, and 99% bank loans. 
  • The TOB is at 0.65x book for a cash-rich company. Liquidate the cash and the rest is being taken over at 0.33x book. Aaaaargh. 

Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results

By Travis Lundy

  • Today Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced earnings which will mean last year was the trough, not this year. The pipeline looks OK too. 
  • The company also announced a ¥100bn buyback and a change of CEO. The buyback has a big number, but it isn’t particularly exciting. 
  • All in all, there’s positive news here, but it is all much of a muchness, but as it is a nine-figure buyback in 3mos, we take a look.

SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice

By Sanghyun Park

  • This 20% reversion and 30% cap setup creates solid flow trades. With just 13 holdings, SOL ETF’s weight swings hard—Hanwha Ocean’s already pushing 27% post-rebal.
  • Constituent changes drive the biggest dislocations—still the main setup. “The other 10” names are FICS-screened by market cap (May/Nov cut), making rotations fairly predictable.
  • With AUM only ramping recently, this ETF is still in price discovery mode. Pre-positioning ahead of flows has juice, making it a prime target for aggressive flow trading.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
  • Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth? 
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 

Nippon Steal! Again. Parent Takes Out Sanyo Special Steel (5481) At Well Below Book

By Travis Lundy

  • 6-7 years ago Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) bought out a large foreign specialty steel company, and funded it by getting Nippon Steel to inject capital at below book. 
  • Now Nippon Steel is buying the rest of Sanyo Special Steel in a Tender Offer at 0.66x book, where most of book is Net Receivables, Inventory, WIP, and Materials.
  • This is the second time in a decade where the Board has decided to sell control of itself at far below book value. They should be ashamed of themselves.

Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Ascot Corp (3264 JP) announced a tender offer from Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP) at JPY260 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close.
  • Ascot currently does not meet the 25% tradeable share ratio criterion. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges but below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
  • This is a done deal, as irrevocables represent an 82.78% ownership ratio, well above the minimum acceptance condition (67.86% ownership ratio).  

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Daily Brief Australia: Dropsuite Ltd, Airtasker, Readcloud Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme
  • Airtasker Ltd – Revenue momentum continues
  • Readcloud Ltd – A strong start to the year


Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dropsuite (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
  • NinjaOne is offering A$5.90/share, a 34.1% premium to last close. Apart from Dropsuite’s shareholder approval, the Offer requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. 
  • The Offer also has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%.  Implementation is expected late May 2025. This is done. 

Airtasker Ltd – Revenue momentum continues

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update report on online marketplace Airtasker (ASX:ART) following its Q2 FY25 results release which demonstrated continued momentum in revenue growth across all regions.
  • All regions saw increased revenue (US marketplace revenue +278%, UK +95% and Australia +~13%) and all were at or above the Q1 FY25 growth rates, aided by increased marketing spend.
  • After all cash outflows ART achieved positive cash flow of $0.54m for the quarter, resulting in increased cash at bank (to $18.3m at December 31).

Readcloud Ltd – A strong start to the year

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research has published an update on edtech group ReadCloud (ASX:RCL) following the release of its Q1 results in which it reported a 26% increase in cash receipts to $2.4m.
  • The result was in line with our forecasts from an operating cash flow and ending cash position.
  • The company’s commentary was positive and gave us confident of our forecasts for the remainder of FY25 and into FY26.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Ocean , TXR Robotics, Naver Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice
  • TXR Robotics IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Naver: CHZZK Increasing Market Share in the Korean Live Game Streaming Sector


SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice

By Sanghyun Park

  • This 20% reversion and 30% cap setup creates solid flow trades. With just 13 holdings, SOL ETF’s weight swings hard—Hanwha Ocean’s already pushing 27% post-rebal.
  • Constituent changes drive the biggest dislocations—still the main setup. “The other 10” names are FICS-screened by market cap (May/Nov cut), making rotations fairly predictable.
  • With AUM only ramping recently, this ETF is still in price discovery mode. Pre-positioning ahead of flows has juice, making it a prime target for aggressive flow trading.

TXR Robotics IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied price of 19,673 won per share (46% higher than the high end of the IPO price range).
  • Our base case valuation is based on target P/S of 5.4x using our estimated sales of 57.7 billion won.
  • To value TXR Robotics, the target P/S of 5.4x is based on a 30% discount to the comps’ valuation multiple.

Naver: CHZZK Increasing Market Share in the Korean Live Game Streaming Sector

By Douglas Kim

  • Naver’s CHZZK has been increasing its market share in the Korean live game streaming sector. This improving momentum is likely to continue to positively impact Naver’s share price. 
  • CHZZK was the top ranking live streaming platform in Korea in December 2024 with about 2.5 million MAU.
  • Naver is currently trading at EV/EBITDA of 11.4x and P/E of 18.3x, which are 50% and 51% lower respectively than its historical average valuation multiples from 2020 to 2023.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Renewing Strategies for 2025


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Renewing Strategies for 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya is set to book a strong finish to the year, with revenues on track to meet guidance and 4Q benefiting from supplier rebates and seasonal festivities.
  • The company is guiding for revenue growth in 2025 in line with that of 2024, with a plan to open at least 1,000 new Alfamart stores during the year.
  • The guidance for Lawson and Alfamidi store expansion has yet to be announced but numbers are likely to be similar or higher than 2024. Valuations remain attractive versus growth expectations. 

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Daily Brief India: Whirlpool of India, Lumino Industries Ltd, Veritas Finance Ltd, Krishca Strapping Solutions, Bajaj Finance Ltd, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?
  • Lumino Industries Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Veritas Finance Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Can Krishca Strapping Solutions Maintain Momentum Amidst Steel Price Volatility?
  • What the Airtel-Bajaj Finance Partnership Means for Their Growth Plans?
  • EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems


Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) plans to sell a 31% stake in Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) reducing ownership to 20% by 2025, triggering a 20% decline due to valuation concerns.
  • The implied sale valuation is lower than market expectations, raising concerns about growth, profitability, and stock overvaluation, while the parent company capitalizes on an asset arbitrage opportunity.
  • Short-Term stock pressure due to stake sale overhang, declining profitability, and reduced parent control, but potential long-term re-rating if operational performance improves.

Lumino Industries Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Lumino Industries Ltd (0349204D IN) is looking to raise about US$116m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Motilal, JM Fin, Monarch.
  • Lumino Industries Ltd (LIL) was established in 2005. The company is a product-driven integrated engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) player in India.
  • As per CRISIL Report, Lumino Industries is recognized as the fastest-growing player in the conductors, power cables, and power EPC industry, in terms of revenue CAGR between FY22 to FY24.

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise around US$323m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI, HDFC, Jefferies, Kotak and Nuvama.
  • Veritas Finance Limited (VFL) is a retail focused non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India primarily providing loans to micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and self-employed individuals.
  • As per the CRISIL report, the firm was the fastest-growing NBFC in terms of AUM growth during FY22-24, growing at a CAGR of 61.76%.

Can Krishca Strapping Solutions Maintain Momentum Amidst Steel Price Volatility?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Krishca Strapping Solutions (KRISHCA IN) is India’s first “Lead-Free” and eco-friendly production line for the heat treatment of steel strapping.
  • The company is aggressively pursuing growth, aiming for a 25% revenue increase in the current financial year and EBITDA margin is anticipated to stay between 15% and 20%
  • The company is investing in a new special steel production plant in Chennai and launching subsidiaries in the UAE and Singapore to tap into new markets

What the Airtel-Bajaj Finance Partnership Means for Their Growth Plans?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Airtel-Bajaj Finance partnership is a game-changer in the digital financial services sector in India. It combines the strengths of both companies to create a powerful platform.
  • By leveraging Airtel’s extensive distribution network and Bajaj Finance’s financial expertise, this collaboration has the potential to disrupt the market and challenge established players.
  • It follows the successful playbook of other global partnerships and demonstrates how digital platforms and financial institutions can work together to enhance financial accessibility

EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • NIFTY Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
  • Putting implied volatility into context with NIFTY Index market levels and trends will lead to a different conclusion. Implied volatility is not nearly as rich as conventional measures suggest.
  • This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which price implied volatility can be assessed as rich, given current relative index levels.

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Daily Brief United States: Meta Platforms (Facebook), APi Group, At&T Inc, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, Inc. , Nucor Corp, Guess? Inc, Talos Energy Inc, Aurion Biotech, Moog Inc Class A and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Meta 4Q’24 Update
  • APi Group: Safety Services at Scale – [Business Breakdowns, EP.204]
  • AT&T: Will Its Fiber Infrastructure Expansion Be A Game-Changer Or A Costly Mistake? – Major Drivers
  • Verizon Communication & Its 5G Empire: Can Recent Technological Innovations Help Sustain Its Market Position? – Major Drivers
  • HCA Healthcare: Health Insurance Exchange Growth Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • Nucor Corporation: Resilience & Growth in Plate Production Powering Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • GES: Snapping the Store: Shifting to Spring With Vigor; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT
  • Talos Energy Inc. – Estimate Update; Testing High-Impact Prospects in 1H25
  • Aurion Biotech (AURN):  Regenerative Eye Disease Biotech Filed for IPO Despite Investor Litigation
  • Moog Inc.: The Top 6 Influences on Its Performance for 2025 & the Future! – Major Drivers


Meta 4Q’24 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • In recent weeks, Meta stock has mostly been one-way street: up! That continued to be the case after-hours post 4Q’24 earnings.
  • Here are my highlights from today’s call. Daily Active People (DAP) across its Family of Apps (FOA) accelerated to 60 mn QoQ in 4Q’24.
  • It’s kind of mind boggling that Meta added 1 Billion DAP since 1Q’20.

APi Group: Safety Services at Scale – [Business Breakdowns, EP.204]

By Business Breakdowns

  • API Group, a provider of life, safety, and specialty services to buildings, has seen significant growth under CEO Ross Becker and with involvement from investor Sir Martin Franklin.
  • Started as a small plumbing company in the 1960s, now a global leader in fire protection, security, and building services
  • Shifted from one-off construction projects to recurring revenue model, with over 55% of revenue now recurring

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


AT&T: Will Its Fiber Infrastructure Expansion Be A Game-Changer Or A Costly Mistake? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AT&T’s latest financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 shows a balanced overview of strengths and challenges that shape its investment profile.
  • Positively, the company has demonstrated solid growth in its core operations, particularly in the Mobility and Consumer Wireline segments.
  • Postpaid phone net additions totaled approximately 1.7 million with a service revenue growth of 3.5% for Mobility, contributing to AT&T likely leading the industry in postpaid phone churn for most of the past sixteen quarters.

Verizon Communication & Its 5G Empire: Can Recent Technological Innovations Help Sustain Its Market Position? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verizon Communications Inc.’s latest earnings release highlights a blend of strategic initiatives, market positioning, operational performance, and future outlook amidst both challenges and opportunities.
  • The results provide insights into Verizon’s growth trajectory, notably in the wireless, broadband, and emerging AI sectors, as well as operational efficiencies driving financial performance.
  • The company reported a successful financial year, with wireless service revenue growing by 3.1% and adjusted EBITDA by 2.1%.

HCA Healthcare: Health Insurance Exchange Growth Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • HCA Healthcare concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 with robust business fundamentals, maintaining consistency with previous quarters.
  • The company displayed resilience amidst challenges, such as significant weather disruptions caused by hurricanes, and a stable operational environment underpinned a reasonable starting point for 2025.
  • The execution of efficient operational strategies has allowed the organization to stabilize operations in affected regions like North Carolina, Georgia, and West Florida.

Nucor Corporation: Resilience & Growth in Plate Production Powering Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nucor Corporation has delivered a mixed performance during its fourth quarter of 2024, marked by safety achievements and strategic growth investments alongside certain operational challenges.
  • On the positive front, Nucor reported its safest year in history with a notable reduction in workplace injuries, reflecting a strong corporate culture focusing on safety.
  • Financially, the company achieved earnings of $1.22 per share for the fourth quarter, contributing to an annual total of $8.46 per share.

GES: Snapping the Store: Shifting to Spring With Vigor; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for Guess?
  • after visiting stores in the New York City metro area and Long Island.
  • With Guess?

Talos Energy Inc. – Estimate Update; Testing High-Impact Prospects in 1H25

By Water Tower Research

  • The Katmai West #2 appraisal well is expected to commence production toward the end of 2Q25.
  • Gross deliverability from the well, which encountered more than 400 feet of gross hydrocarbon pay in the primary reservoir objective, is estimated to be ~15-20 MBOE/d.
  • Performance from the Katmai West #1 well, together with the results from this well, has nearly doubled the estimated proved reserve ultimate recovery to ~50 million BOE (gross) and supports Talos’ total estimated resource potential of ~100 MMBOE (gross).

Aurion Biotech (AURN):  Regenerative Eye Disease Biotech Filed for IPO Despite Investor Litigation

By IPO Boutique

  • AURN001, is an improved formulation designed to be mechanistically identical to Vyznova and to provide enhanced benefits, including manufacturing scalability and extended shelf life.
  • There is pending litigation between Aurion Biotech and the company’s largest shareholder, Alcon Research.
  • This company is on a trajectory to set terms and debut in the first half of February.

Moog Inc.: The Top 6 Influences on Its Performance for 2025 & the Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Moog Inc.’s first quarter fiscal 2025 results indicate a robust start to the year, with significant achievements in various segments of its business.
  • The company reported sales of $910 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, underscoring strong performance particularly in Military Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft, and Space and Defense, although Industrial sales declined due to divestitures and soft market conditions.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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