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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 27
0

Daily Brief ESG: Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?

Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Declining components from MSCI indexes will lead to less inflows from active as well as passive funds, and less transmission from the sell-side to global investors.
  • Based on the assumption that the world’s top companies have grown in response to changes in the environment, Japanese companies may be relatively slow in making management decisions for growth.
  • As benchmark adopters reduce their investments in Japanese equities, investors adopting investment strategies that are less concerned with benchmarks will have a greater presence than ever before.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Fed Week and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Fed Week
  • Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji
  • Japan Morning Connection: JP Tech Set for a Soggy Start to the Week Despite Big META Capex Plans
  • [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 4/52]: Deepseek’s Asked the Right Question on GAI Capex

Ohayo Japan | Fed Week

By Mark Chadwick

  • The technology sector was a major drag, with Big Tech stocks such as Nvidia (-3.1%) and Texas Instruments (-7.5%) leading the decline.
  • Meta plans to invest $60-65 billion in expansion this year, a significant increase from its initial $38-40 billion forecast
  • FUJIFILM Holdings will invest over 100 billion yen by March 2027 to expand its semiconductor materials business

Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji

By Mark Chadwick

  • Oasis have turned up on the register of Topcon with a 7.3% stake. Topcon are exploring way to enhance corporate value…ie a bidding war for private equity sale
  • City Index have taken a significant stake in Furukawa Machinery – the company will be under pressure to allocate capital more effectively
  • City Index have also gone large in Oji Holdings. The company is already doing sensible things to improve its valuation, but there is more to be done. 

Japan Morning Connection: JP Tech Set for a Soggy Start to the Week Despite Big META Capex Plans

By Andrew Jackson

  • Power/Analog names set for a weak start after the negative read-through from Texas Industries numbers Friday.
  • Disco numbers looks overly conservative and a good chace to revisit with ‘Stargate’ gains erased after Fridays drop.
  • Sapporo Holdings quelling concerns its main activist investor was divesting should be enough to see this rebound.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 4/52]: Deepseek’s Asked the Right Question on GAI Capex

By Ying Pan

  • New smartphone trade-in subsidy received raving response from Chinese consumers;
  • Tencent and NetEase gained key game title approvals. Entertainment is a good choice in uncertain environment of 2025;
  • From a slight moderating C4Q24, we expect strong showing in domestic travel demand heading into CNY.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee
  • SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

By Sumeet Singh

SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
  • Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.  
  • SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush
  • Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher
  • Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert
  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): Publication of Buyback Offer Document
  • Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving
  • Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) – Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

By Michael Allen

  • More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. 
  • The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn’t mean what most people think it means.
  • Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
  • Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
  • Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a solid finish to 2024, with strong loan growth across the board driven by  corporate and SMEs leading, whilst its CASA continued to grow, protecting NIMs.
  • The bank continue to cement its position as Indonesia’s leading transactional bank with +21% growth in 2024 to a record 36bn transactions, with its mobile banking leading the way. 
  • BCA continues to grow channels inclusing  branches and ATMS to supplement its mobile banking growth. Loan growth may slow slightly this year but BCA stands out from peers on funding.

Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)‘s positive profit alert suggested a very solid performance for Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) in 4Q24. 
  • Annualising Singamas’ 1H24 earnings for the full year will mean a 78% profit surge in 2H24, but this is still conservative – CIMC’s 2H24 profit leaped 93x YoY.
  • Trading on 6x PER, versus CIMC’s 10.3x, the stock is cheap. Net cash equals 86% of market capitalisation, potentially providing a yield higher than the 8.8% currently projected.

China National Building Material (3323 HK): Publication of Buyback Offer Document

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK) published the H-share offer document and if everything is smooth, the payment will be made on 14 Mar 2025. 
  • Its two subsidiaries forecast poor profit/losses for FY24, suggesting a tough operating environment. The buyback valuation remains attractive relative to peer multiples.
  • For non-holders, at the current price of HK$3.59, we do not think the safety margin is good enough, assuming that most existing shareholders will accept and tender.

Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving

By Scott Foster

  • Outlook improving with rising demand for energy storage systems and near-line HDDs and water cooling modules for AI servers.
  • 3Q results point to FY sales above and profits in line with management’s guidance. Proceeding toward acquisition of Makino Milling next fiscal year.
  • At 17.5x projected earnings and 10x cash flow, the shares are at the bottom of their 10-year valuation range. Buy for the medium- to long term.

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) – Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to disappointing performance in 24Q1-Q3, both revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 could face negative growth, but 2025 is expected to have positive growth.
  • As pharmaceutical distribution business can just maintain stable but medical device distribution business and retail pharmacies cannot contribute high growth, the overall performance of Sinopharm has lost growth momentum.
  • Due to longer payment cycles from hospitals and its business characteristics, Sinopharm is facing significant demands for working capital. Insufficient cash flow makes it difficult to increase the dividend rate.  

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
  • Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming
  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
  • SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer
  • CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote
  • Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
  • It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
  • Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming

By Arun George

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

By Arun George

  • The IFA opines that the China National Building Material (3323 HK) share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.
  • The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
  • The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met. 

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

By Arun George

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

By Brian Freitas

SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
  • The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.  

CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
  • The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM’s parent – the CNBM Parent Concert Group – to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.
  • Pre-Cons were satisfied on the 24th Jan. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down. 

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
  • There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
  • With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings

By Nico Rosti

  • Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
  • On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
  • Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.

Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

By Richard Howe

  • I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
  • The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
  • 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation. 

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Macro: Global Credit Outlook Gets More Complex Due to Recent US Developments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Credit Outlook Gets More Complex Due to Recent US Developments
  • Two Key Risks to the Bull That No One Is Talking About
  • Tips on Navigating the Post-Inauguration Rally
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

Global Credit Outlook Gets More Complex Due to Recent US Developments

By Said Desaque

  • Credit cycles and financial conditions could vary significantly by sector and region during 2025.  Hawkish Fed policy and European political uncertainty complicate the credit outlooks for the US and Europe. 
  • Emerging market growth and credit outlooks could be impacted by US protectionism and more hawkish Fed policy conduct.  Corporate and household credit trends are very mixed by individual markets.  
  • Upbeat US  corporate sentiment since the election suggests greater appetite for leverage. Returning fiscal rules within the European Union could be the biggest driver of credit trends in the region.     

Two Key Risks to the Bull That No One Is Talking About

By Cam Hui

  • Nascent signs of a major market top are appearing even as the S&P 500 tests its all-time high.
  • A growing negative breadth divergence and a potential growth shock of mass deportations could sideswipe stock prices.
  • The scenario of a major market top in Q1 or Q2 2025 is building. The caveat is these are very early signs of risk.

Tips on Navigating the Post-Inauguration Rally

By Cam Hui

  • The S&P 500 is short-term overbought after breaking out to an all-time high and needs time to digest its gains.
  • We expect this will resolve in a period of sideways consolidation or shallow pullback, though Q4 earnings season and the FOMC and ECB rate decisions could induce volatility.
  • However, we have substantial concerns over growing signs of negative breadth divergences, which could be signals of a cycle top in either Q1 or Q2.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • This is a follow-up to our initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN): Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner, in which we provide some positive updates. 
  • The company guided a full-year copper production of 660-700k for FY25 (in line with expectations) and slightly higher gross YoY costs at the upper end (but better than street expectations).
  • The long-term production plan of 900,000 tons by 2027 puts it under 5x EV-EBITDA for FY27 at spot prices (vs. the current 7.8x).

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SLB Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
  • The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.  

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Central Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a solid finish to 2024, with strong loan growth across the board driven by  corporate and SMEs leading, whilst its CASA continued to grow, protecting NIMs.
  • The bank continue to cement its position as Indonesia’s leading transactional bank with +21% growth in 2024 to a record 36bn transactions, with its mobile banking leading the way. 
  • BCA continues to grow channels inclusing  branches and ATMS to supplement its mobile banking growth. Loan growth may slow slightly this year but BCA stands out from peers on funding.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief United States: Apple , Copper, CompoSecure, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025
  • Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off
  • SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings

By Nico Rosti

  • Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
  • On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
  • Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • This is a follow-up to our initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN): Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner, in which we provide some positive updates. 
  • The company guided a full-year copper production of 660-700k for FY25 (in line with expectations) and slightly higher gross YoY costs at the upper end (but better than street expectations).
  • The long-term production plan of 900,000 tons by 2027 puts it under 5x EV-EBITDA for FY27 at spot prices (vs. the current 7.8x).

Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

By Richard Howe

  • I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
  • The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
  • 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation. 

SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
  • Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.  
  • SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief India: IREDA, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
  • EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
  • There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
  • With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.

By Sankalp Singh

  • Monthly Options contracts experiencing large IV markups on account of India Budget event. IVs have traded up to 18.0%. YTD vol increase marks a significant shift in the Vol-regime.
  • Gamma offered & Vega bid – Weekly Options contracts relatively out-of-favour while Monthly & Quarterly contracts are being marked up.
  • Skew & Smile characteristics have compressed slightly. Vol term-structure continues to trade with “inverted-V” shape. 

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