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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Tencent, Midea Group, Smart Share Global, Horizon Robotics, Dream International, Hygeia Healthcare Group, X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei), SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO
  • GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling
  • EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market
  • Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March
  • Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024
  • Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation
  • Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects
  • Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
  • A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
  • The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.

GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I’ve had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
  • IF Mengniu is a seller, can’t Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
  • Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.

EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Tencent (700 HK) shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.
  • Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.
  • A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Tencent (700 HK) .

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • On 6 January, Smart Share Global (EM US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS, a 74.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$0.72.
  • The offer is unattractive to the IPO price (US$8.50), average sell-side price targets (US$1.87) and historical trading ranges. 
  • Despite the light offer, the shareholder vote is done (two-thirds voting threshold) as the buyer consortium represents 64.0% of the voting power. A binding proposal will be forthcoming.  

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 31 December. The changes will be announced on 21 February and become effective after the close 7 March.
  • There could be 5 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a potential inclusion to the HSCI and the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.

Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dream International, a Hong Kong-based company run by a Korean family, has seen significant growth in revenue and earnings per share over the past decade.
  • Despite facing challenges such as theft of funds and holding a large cash pile, the company has shown strong performance with an 18% return on equity over the past 15 years.
  • Trading at a low multiple of earnings and holding a significant cash reserve, Dream International presents an appealing investment opportunity for value investors due to its potential for continued growth and competitive advantages in the market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1H24, Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK) reported revenue growth of 35% YoY to RMB2,382 million, mainly driven by a 37% YoY growth in hospital business.
  • Hygeia’s gross profit margin contracted 60bps YoY to 31.8%. Lower government grant led to 230bps operating margin squeeze to 21.6%.
  • The share price of Hygeia Healthcare has gone down almost 56% in the last one year. Accelerated organic growth and strengthening of margins are crucial to boost valuation.

Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • X.J. ELECTRICS not only relies on export revenue, but also on ODM/OEM models, with a relatively low proportion of independent brands. Such business model would not bring high profit margin.
  • X.J. ELECTRICS’ equity is concentrated in PAN YUN/GUANGSHE PAN, but they have plans to reduce holdings.This makes us feel that actual controllers are more inclined to cash out through IPO.
  • Valuation of X.J. ELECTRICS should be lower than Carote, as Carote has established branded business and its revenue proportion in different regions is also “healthier” than that of X.J. ELECTRICS.

Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires

By Farah Miller

  • Tire production volumes are declining
  • Major tire manufacturers are closing/withdrawing from the Chinese truck tire market
  • Emerging competitors are expanding capacity, challenging established suppliers 

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Daily Brief India: Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd, Central Depository Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration
  • Central Depository Services (India) Limited (NSE: CDSL) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024


Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd (BHV IN) is an owner and developer of hotels in India, focusing primarily on South India, plans to raise about US$107m through its upcoming India IPO.
  • It has a current portfolio of  9 operating hotels, of which, 4, 3 and 2 are operated under Accor, InterContinental, Marriott brands.
  • BHVL intends to use the IPO proceeds primarily to repay debt of INR 4.8bn and to purchase land from the promoter for further expansion.

Central Depository Services (India) Limited (NSE: CDSL) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CDSL is a market infrastructure company operating in the Indian equity capital markets with a $2.5 billion enterprise value
  • The company has shown consistent revenue growth over the past decade and listed on the NSE in 2017
  • With strong shareholder support and expected mid-teens CAGR growth, CDSL is seen as a buy and hold investment with potential for outperformance compared to major Indian indices

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Eyewear Holdings , Sony Corp, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Nitto Kogyo, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)
  • Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers
  • Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Q2 Follow-Up – December 19, 2024
  • Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) continues to be our top pre-event pick for TOPIX Inclusion.
  • Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is another potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate but it is quite far away from being satisfy the main Section Transfer requirements.

Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sony Group Corporation has exhibited a mix of strengths and challenges in its latest financial results, which provide insights into its current business landscape and future outlook.
  • Positive aspects of Sony’s results are largely attributable to robust performance in key segments like Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) and Music.
  • The company reported a 9% increase in consolidated sales, excluding the Financial Services segment, year-on-year, with operating income showing a significant increase of 57% for the quarter.

Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires

By Farah Miller

  • Tire production volumes are declining
  • Major tire manufacturers are closing/withdrawing from the Chinese truck tire market
  • Emerging competitors are expanding capacity, challenging established suppliers 

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Q2 Follow-Up – December 19, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • H1 2025/3 Earnings Result Summary: Nitto Kogyo Corporation (hereafter, the Company) announced net sales of JPY 81,983 mn (+12.1% YoY), operating profit of JPY 4,063 mn (-14.8% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 4,433 mn (-14.5% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 5,212 mn (+46.2% YoY).
  • Net profit rose, due to the booking of an extraordinary gain from the acquisition of subsidiary shares. Sales and net profit were record-high in H1.
  • FY2025/3 Earnings Forecast: Following H1 earnings, the Company revised its full-year FY2025/3 earnings forecast.

Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While companies are eager to improve % of female board members, for which they are required to meet new targets, they are less enthusiastic about raising % of independent directors.
  • The improvement in % of independent directors has been decreasing year by year. As the importance of independent directors increases, it’s necessary to demand increase in this ratio through engagement.
  • For the other evaluation criteria, the median value remained unchanged from the previous year. Meanwhile, some traditional companies have not been able to eliminate the position of ex-CEO advisors.

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Most Read: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Tencent, Mitsui Matsushima, CPMC Holdings, Sigma Healthcare, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , LG Corp, Japan Eyewear Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet
  • [JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
  • CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
  • PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO
  • GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote
  • The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)


Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet

By Brian Freitas

  • The U.S. Department of Defense has designated Tencent (700 HK) as a Chinese Military Company. Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) shares were down nearly 8% overnight.
  • There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.
  • If added to the NS-CMIC list, Tencent (700 HK) will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
  • After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line. 
  • There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.

CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • At a 1.5% gross spread to terms, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) is trading with completion is mind after the last pre-condition – SAFE – was satisfied on the 13th December
  • The Offer Doc is now out and the transaction is open for acceptances. The First Close is the 10th January. 
  • I’d expect this deal to turn unconditional on or before the First Close, with payment around the 20th January.  

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn

By Brian Freitas

  • SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
  • Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
  • Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.

PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
  • A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
  • The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.

GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I’ve had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
  • IF Mengniu is a seller, can’t Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
  • Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

By Arun George

  • The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
  • Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
  • I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.

The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp

By Sanghyun Park

  • I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.
  • With LG Corp’s 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.
  • If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) continues to be our top pre-event pick for TOPIX Inclusion.
  • Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is another potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate but it is quite far away from being satisfy the main Section Transfer requirements.

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Daily Brief Industrials: LG Corp, Geek+, Grab Holdings , Nitto Kogyo, Magellan Aerospace, On Assignment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp
  • Beijing Geekplus Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Grab Holdings: Financial Services Expansion & Loan Growth As A Strategic Growth Enabler!
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Q2 Follow-Up – December 19, 2024
  • Finding the Next Takeout in Canadian Small-Caps – Part Four
  • ASGN Incorporated: AI & Digital Transformation Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Outlook! – Major Drivers


The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp

By Sanghyun Park

  • I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.
  • With LG Corp’s 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.
  • If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.

Beijing Geekplus Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.  The deal will be run by CICC, Morgan Stanley, CMBI and Deutsche Bank.
  • It is a leader in the global AMR market and offers a series of AMR solutions to empower warehouse fulfillment and industrial material transport.
  • It was the world’s largest warehouse fulfillment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue in 2023.

Grab Holdings: Financial Services Expansion & Loan Growth As A Strategic Growth Enabler!

By Baptista Research

  • Grab Holdings Limited recently presented its Q3 2024 financial performance, showcasing a complex mix of achievements and challenges.
  • The company highlighted several key metrics tied to its operations and future prospects, amid an increasingly competitive landscape, particularly in Southeast Asia.
  • The quarter reflected substantial growth in core business areas.

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Q2 Follow-Up – December 19, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • H1 2025/3 Earnings Result Summary: Nitto Kogyo Corporation (hereafter, the Company) announced net sales of JPY 81,983 mn (+12.1% YoY), operating profit of JPY 4,063 mn (-14.8% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 4,433 mn (-14.5% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 5,212 mn (+46.2% YoY).
  • Net profit rose, due to the booking of an extraordinary gain from the acquisition of subsidiary shares. Sales and net profit were record-high in H1.
  • FY2025/3 Earnings Forecast: Following H1 earnings, the Company revised its full-year FY2025/3 earnings forecast.

Finding the Next Takeout in Canadian Small-Caps – Part Four

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • Since our last note in September, there have been 11 new takeouts in Canadian small-caps.
  • This has accelerated in recent weeks with the acquisitions of Softchoice, Quisitive, and Carebook.
  • • Our potential takeouts portfolio is up 61% since inception (November 2023) and 13% since our last note, compared to the TSX up 28% and 9% respectively.

ASGN Incorporated: AI & Digital Transformation Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Outlook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASGN Incorporated reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting stable demand for its services with total revenues reaching $1.031 billion, aligning with the guidance provided earlier.
  • The company experienced an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.3%, maintaining its transition toward high-value consulting services, particularly IT consulting, which constitutes almost 60% of ASGN’s overall revenue.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Entree Resources, Arcadium Lithium , Palladium, United States Steel, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Valeura Energy Inc, Westlake Chemical, YPF SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling
  • Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What?
  • Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod
  • The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks
  • Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value
  • Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires
  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): >US$100 Mm Cash Build During 4Q24. All Eyes on the Reserves Update in February
  • Westlake Corporation: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)


GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I’ve had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
  • IF Mengniu is a seller, can’t Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
  • Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.

Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Late 2024 Entree Resources (ETG CN) announced it won its arbitration against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The vote by the three judges was unanimously in favor of Entree. 
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) held its investor day in early December 2024 where almost its entire growth plan for 2025-2030 is predicated on Oyu Tolgoi’s (OT) performance.
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) is now backed into a corner to find a solution for OT’s minority shareholder Entree Resources. The most logical outcome? RIO buys ETG in 2025.

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)‘s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)‘s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
  • Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
  • Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete “before mid-2025”; possibly this quarter.

The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1.a. Within the span of 6 hours we had markets trading WaPo the rumour, then reacting to the pushback on the rumour from Trump and then markets calling Trump’s push back a bluff.
  • We conclude a couple of things from this.
  • Firstly, what we have been saying the last month ever since Trump’s first comments on Canadian tariffs, namely that this is a negotiation tactic to get what he really wants.

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition bid for U.S. Steel, announced in December 2023, faced regulatory resistance and was blocked by the Biden administration over national security concerns.
  • U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel 2 expansion will double capacity to 6.3 million tons by 2026, contributing over 50% of EBITDA and supporting enhanced free cash flow generation.
  • Despite the failed merger, U.S. Steel’s intrinsic value, supported by a $39.75 fair value estimate, easing capex, and reshoring tailwinds, offers a ~19% upside from the $33.30 closing price.

Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires

By Farah Miller

  • Tire production volumes are declining
  • Major tire manufacturers are closing/withdrawing from the Chinese truck tire market
  • Emerging competitors are expanding capacity, challenging established suppliers 

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): >US$100 Mm Cash Build During 4Q24. All Eyes on the Reserves Update in February

By Auctus Advisors

  • Record 4Q24 production was 26.1 mbbl/d, which is in line with our expectations.
  • Net cash at YE24 was US$259 mm, exceeding our forecasts by US$34 mm.
  • This reflects a 0.56 mmbbl reduction in oil inventory during 4Q24 (1.2 mmbbl at the end of September versus 0.64 mmbbl at the end of December).

Westlake Corporation: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Westlake Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial results present a complex mix of achievements and challenges that potential investors must consider.
  • The company reported net sales of $3.1 billion, with an EBITDA of $580 million and a net income of $183 million or $1.41 per share.
  • These results were impacted by significant maintenance issues and strategic decisions, offering insights into both the resilience and the vulnerabilities within Westlake’s operations.

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

By Leandro Gubler

  • We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%
  • We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves
  • Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.

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Daily Brief Industrials: LG Corp, Geek+, Grab Holdings , Nitto Kogyo, Magellan Aerospace, On Assignment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp
  • Beijing Geekplus Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Grab Holdings: Financial Services Expansion & Loan Growth As A Strategic Growth Enabler!
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Q2 Follow-Up – December 19, 2024
  • Finding the Next Takeout in Canadian Small-Caps – Part Four
  • ASGN Incorporated: AI & Digital Transformation Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Outlook! – Major Drivers


The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp

By Sanghyun Park

  • I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.
  • With LG Corp’s 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.
  • If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.

Beijing Geekplus Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.  The deal will be run by CICC, Morgan Stanley, CMBI and Deutsche Bank.
  • It is a leader in the global AMR market and offers a series of AMR solutions to empower warehouse fulfillment and industrial material transport.
  • It was the world’s largest warehouse fulfillment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue in 2023.

Grab Holdings: Financial Services Expansion & Loan Growth As A Strategic Growth Enabler!

By Baptista Research

  • Grab Holdings Limited recently presented its Q3 2024 financial performance, showcasing a complex mix of achievements and challenges.
  • The company highlighted several key metrics tied to its operations and future prospects, amid an increasingly competitive landscape, particularly in Southeast Asia.
  • The quarter reflected substantial growth in core business areas.

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Q2 Follow-Up – December 19, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • H1 2025/3 Earnings Result Summary: Nitto Kogyo Corporation (hereafter, the Company) announced net sales of JPY 81,983 mn (+12.1% YoY), operating profit of JPY 4,063 mn (-14.8% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 4,433 mn (-14.5% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 5,212 mn (+46.2% YoY).
  • Net profit rose, due to the booking of an extraordinary gain from the acquisition of subsidiary shares. Sales and net profit were record-high in H1.
  • FY2025/3 Earnings Forecast: Following H1 earnings, the Company revised its full-year FY2025/3 earnings forecast.

Finding the Next Takeout in Canadian Small-Caps – Part Four

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • Since our last note in September, there have been 11 new takeouts in Canadian small-caps.
  • This has accelerated in recent weeks with the acquisitions of Softchoice, Quisitive, and Carebook.
  • • Our potential takeouts portfolio is up 61% since inception (November 2023) and 13% since our last note, compared to the TSX up 28% and 9% respectively.

ASGN Incorporated: AI & Digital Transformation Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Outlook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASGN Incorporated reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting stable demand for its services with total revenues reaching $1.031 billion, aligning with the guidance provided earlier.
  • The company experienced an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.3%, maintaining its transition toward high-value consulting services, particularly IT consulting, which constitutes almost 60% of ASGN’s overall revenue.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Inari Amertron, Horizon Robotics, United Microelectronics Corp, Lumen Technologies, Kyocera Corp, Team Internet Group , Take Two Interactive Software, Inc, U-Blox AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market
  • Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.
  • Lumen Technologies Shakes Up the Industry with a Strategic Consumer–Enterprise Split! – Major Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.
  • Team Internet Group – Two potential bids at 125p
  • Take-Two Interactive Software: Expansion In The Mobile Gaming Sector As A Pivotal Growth Engine! – Major Drivers
  • U-Blox Holding (UBXN) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024


EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Tencent (700 HK) shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.
  • Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.
  • A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Tencent (700 HK) .

Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.
  • Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 31 December. The changes will be announced on 21 February and become effective after the close 7 March.
  • There could be 5 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a potential inclusion to the HSCI and the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

By Patrick Liao

  • United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
  • We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
  • It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.

Lumen Technologies Shakes Up the Industry with a Strategic Consumer–Enterprise Split! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies’ third-quarter 2024 performance outlines its strategic efforts and current challenges as it navigates a transformative phase to reposition the company within the digital networking and AI infrastructure sectors.
  • The company reported a revenue decline, reflecting ongoing headwinds from legacy business sectors, even as it strives to pivot its offerings toward newer, more competitive markets.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • EV price cuts in Europe impact used car market, while US industry faces tariffs
  • Kyocera to sell $1.27 billion in non-core business due to declining profits
  • Toyota and Nvidia collaborate at CES 2025 for AI alliance towards autonomous future

Team Internet Group – Two potential bids at 125p

By Edison Investment Research

Team Internet’s board yesterday confirmed that it has received two separate acquisition proposals from TowerBrook Capital Partners and Verdane Fund Manager. Each proposal offers 125p per share in cash, with an option for shareholders to choose an unlisted equity alternative.


Take-Two Interactive Software: Expansion In The Mobile Gaming Sector As A Pivotal Growth Engine! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Take-Two Interactive Software has demonstrated a robust performance in its second-quarter fiscal year 2025 results.
  • The company reported net bookings of $1.47 billion, aligning with the higher end of its guidance range.
  • This performance was notably driven by the continued success of key franchises such as Grand Theft Auto and Borderlands.

U-Blox Holding (UBXN) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • High-margin and growing Positioning business is overshadowed by struggling cellular module business and inventory issues
  • Potential for significant upside if company divests or shuts down struggling business segments
  • New leadership team and activist shareholder involvement indicate strategic shift towards unlocking value of core strengths in GNSS semiconductors and modules, with potential upside of 50-200% and limited downside risk

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Midea Group, Smart Share Global, Dream International, Sony Corp, Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia, Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Geely Auto, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO
  • Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer
  • Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024
  • Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers
  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO
  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration
  • Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires
  • Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 32% in 2024 – BEV Supporting 2H24
  • Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
  • A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
  • The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • On 6 January, Smart Share Global (EM US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS, a 74.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$0.72.
  • The offer is unattractive to the IPO price (US$8.50), average sell-side price targets (US$1.87) and historical trading ranges. 
  • Despite the light offer, the shareholder vote is done (two-thirds voting threshold) as the buyer consortium represents 64.0% of the voting power. A binding proposal will be forthcoming.  

Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dream International, a Hong Kong-based company run by a Korean family, has seen significant growth in revenue and earnings per share over the past decade.
  • Despite facing challenges such as theft of funds and holding a large cash pile, the company has shown strong performance with an 18% return on equity over the past 15 years.
  • Trading at a low multiple of earnings and holding a significant cash reserve, Dream International presents an appealing investment opportunity for value investors due to its potential for continued growth and competitive advantages in the market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sony Group Corporation has exhibited a mix of strengths and challenges in its latest financial results, which provide insights into its current business landscape and future outlook.
  • Positive aspects of Sony’s results are largely attributable to robust performance in key segments like Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) and Music.
  • The company reported a 9% increase in consolidated sales, excluding the Financial Services segment, year-on-year, with operating income showing a significant increase of 57% for the quarter.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) has forged ahead with its rebranding after ending its licensing agreement with ACES US, changing its store branding to AZKO from 1st January 2025.
  • The new branding has already been rolled out to several stores but the company has given a 3-month window for all storefronts to be completed across Indonesia. 
  • We view this rebranding exercise as an opportunity for the company to lift sales further through heavy promotions and a more aggressive store rollout. Valuations remain attractive relative to history.

Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd (BHV IN) is an owner and developer of hotels in India, focusing primarily on South India, plans to raise about US$107m through its upcoming India IPO.
  • It has a current portfolio of  9 operating hotels, of which, 4, 3 and 2 are operated under Accor, InterContinental, Marriott brands.
  • BHVL intends to use the IPO proceeds primarily to repay debt of INR 4.8bn and to purchase land from the promoter for further expansion.

Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires

By Farah Miller

  • Tire production volumes are declining
  • Major tire manufacturers are closing/withdrawing from the Chinese truck tire market
  • Emerging competitors are expanding capacity, challenging established suppliers 

Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 32% in 2024 – BEV Supporting 2H24

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s sales volume grew by 32% in 2024 and management set a growth target of 25% for 2025.
  • BEV boomed in 2H24 and will be the protagonist in 2025.
  • We believe the overseas market will also be promising for Geely.

Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While companies are eager to improve % of female board members, for which they are required to meet new targets, they are less enthusiastic about raising % of independent directors.
  • The improvement in % of independent directors has been decreasing year by year. As the importance of independent directors increases, it’s necessary to demand increase in this ratio through engagement.
  • For the other evaluation criteria, the median value remained unchanged from the previous year. Meanwhile, some traditional companies have not been able to eliminate the position of ex-CEO advisors.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Japan Eyewear Holdings , Hygeia Healthcare Group, X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei), Cocrystal Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)
  • Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation
  • Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects
  • COCP: Phase 2a Trial of CC-42344 Extended


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) continues to be our top pre-event pick for TOPIX Inclusion.
  • Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is another potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate but it is quite far away from being satisfy the main Section Transfer requirements.

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1H24, Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK) reported revenue growth of 35% YoY to RMB2,382 million, mainly driven by a 37% YoY growth in hospital business.
  • Hygeia’s gross profit margin contracted 60bps YoY to 31.8%. Lower government grant led to 230bps operating margin squeeze to 21.6%.
  • The share price of Hygeia Healthcare has gone down almost 56% in the last one year. Accelerated organic growth and strengthening of margins are crucial to boost valuation.

Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • X.J. ELECTRICS not only relies on export revenue, but also on ODM/OEM models, with a relatively low proportion of independent brands. Such business model would not bring high profit margin.
  • X.J. ELECTRICS’ equity is concentrated in PAN YUN/GUANGSHE PAN, but they have plans to reduce holdings.This makes us feel that actual controllers are more inclined to cash out through IPO.
  • Valuation of X.J. ELECTRICS should be lower than Carote, as Carote has established branded business and its revenue proportion in different regions is also “healthier” than that of X.J. ELECTRICS.

COCP: Phase 2a Trial of CC-42344 Extended

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On December 31, 2024, Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. (COCP) announced that the Phase 2a clinical trial of its oral PB2 inhibitor CC-42344 will be continued due to an unexpectedly low influenza infection rate in study participants that were challenged with a H3N2 viral strain.
  • The results from the study showed that CC-42344 had a favorable safety and tolerability profile, however due to the low infectivity rate the virology results were not interpretable.
  • Cocrystal will now work with the clinical research organization to construct an amendment to the trial protocol to extend enrollment in the study and increase the likelihood of a proper infection rate for data evaluation.

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