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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 11
0

Daily Brief Industrials: ATS , bpost SA, Creek & River, Generac Holdings, GFL Environmental , Terex Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • ATS Corporation: Strategic Acquisitions & Market Diversification Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 January (Heineken | NN Group | Havas | bpostgroup | Triodos Bank | Dutch housing market)
  • Creek & River (4763 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
  • Generac Holdings Inc.: Innovation & Ecosystem Integration As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • GFL Environmental Inc.: An Insight Into Its Capital Allocation
  • Terex Faces Shifting Demand: Can Cost Control Keep Them Ahead of the Curve? – Major Drivers

ATS Corporation: Strategic Acquisitions & Market Diversification Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ATS Corporation’s recent earnings report for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 reflects a mixed performance with both strategic advancements and operational challenges.
  • The company reported order bookings of $742 million, remaining flat year-over-year as growth in Life Sciences was offset by a decrease in Electric Vehicle (EV) bookings.
  • This decline was anticipated as ATS realigned its focus to reduce the prominence of the Transportation sector within its portfolio.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 January (Heineken | NN Group | Havas | bpostgroup | Triodos Bank | Dutch housing market)

By The IDEA!

  • In today’s edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas | ups FY24 guidance • bpostgroup | bpost offers packaging and label-free (L2L) shipping • Triodos Bank | offers a package of measures to its depository receipts (“DR”) holders • Dutch housing market | more homes sold in FY24; average transaction price up 11.5% YoY

Creek & River (4763 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by JPY274mn (+0.7% YoY), driven by Creative (Japan) and Other sectors, while operating profit decreased by JPY496mn (-14.2% YoY).
  • Revised full-year FY02/25 forecast projects revenue of JPY50.5bn (+1.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY3.9bn (-6.2% YoY).
  • Reduction in projects from major game publishers and structural reforms in Medical Staffing segment decreased operating profit by JPY950mn.

Generac Holdings Inc.: Innovation & Ecosystem Integration As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Generac Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter 2024 results, reflecting robust overall performance amidst increased demand due to power outages.
  • The company experienced a substantial rise in sales and profits, primarily driven by strong demand for residential products such as home standby and portable generators.
  • Third quarter net sales increased by approximately 10% year-over-year, reaching $1.2 billion, largely due to heightened power outage activity from hurricanes, which also prompted a raised outlook for the year.

GFL Environmental Inc.: An Insight Into Its Capital Allocation

By Baptista Research

  • GFL Environmental’s recent earnings call discussed its third-quarter 2024 results, highlighting both the strengths and challenges faced by the company.
  • During the period, GFL achieved significant financial performance, with a nearly 20% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a record-high adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.1%, showcasing a continuous improvement attributed to effective pricing strategies, superior operational efficiency, and strategic business realignments.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Terex Faces Shifting Demand: Can Cost Control Keep Them Ahead of the Curve? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Terex Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 earnings call provides insights into the company’s performance, recent strategic moves, and expectations going forward.
  • The earnings report highlights several critical factors for potential investors to consider.
  • On the positive side, Terex made significant progress by acquiring the Environmental Solutions Group (ESG) from Dover Corporation.

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Jan 11
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Veren, Crude Oil, Frontline , SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Sm Energy Co, UPL Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Veren Energy: Could Its Infrastructure Optimization & Expansion Be a Game-Changing Move? – Major Drivers
  • [ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply
  • Frontline Plc.: An Analysis Of Its Fleet Modernization & Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • ‘Colorful’ 2024 For Cambodia In Rubber, Tire Sectors
  • SM Energy’s Strategic Capital Moves: Will Their Uinta Basin Bet Pay Off Big? – Major Drivers
  • UPL Limited – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Veren Energy: Could Its Infrastructure Optimization & Expansion Be a Game-Changing Move? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Veren has reported its third quarter results for 2024, shedding light on both its operational successes and the challenges it faces.
  • The company generated excess cash flow of $114 million, with $85 million returned to shareholders.
  • A strategic infrastructure transaction was completed for $400 million, and total net debt is expected to be reduced by $1.3 billion by the end of 2024.

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.

Frontline Plc.: An Analysis Of Its Fleet Modernization & Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Frontline plc’s Q3 2024 financial results indicate a complex and challenging environment for the company, characterized by mixed external factors influencing market dynamics.
  • The company recorded a profit of $60.5 million for the quarter, translating to $0.27 per share, and an adjusted profit of $75.4 million or $0.34 per share.
  • This represents a decline in adjusted profit by $62.8 million from the previous quarter, largely due to decreased time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings which fell from $357.7 million to $292.2 million quarter-over-quarter.

‘Colorful’ 2024 For Cambodia In Rubber, Tire Sectors

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Highlights ·       Set to finish 2024 with a 30% rise in rubber sale values YoY ·       Exports tires worth US$772.5 million during Jan-Nov 2024 ·       Minister charts course of action for 2025   Cambodia has made impressive strides in 2024, fueled by higher global rubber prices and exceptional progress in its burgeoning tire production and export industry, marking a pivotal step in its transformation into a key player in the global rubber value chain.
  •   The Southeast Asian kingdom earned US$472 million from exports of NR latex during January-October 2024, up 22.5% over the same period the previous year.
  • On the other hand, it gained US$568 million from exports of the product during January-November 2024, up 26.7% over the same period in 2023.

SM Energy’s Strategic Capital Moves: Will Their Uinta Basin Bet Pay Off Big? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SM Energy, an independent energy company engaged in exploration and production, reported its third quarter results for 2024, marked by significant strategic developments and operational highlights.
  • The company’s performance this quarter showcases several aspects that are worth examining for investors.
  • On the positive side, SM Energy highlighted operational success and welcomed a strategic expansion with the acquisition of assets in the Uinta Basin.

UPL Limited – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

  • Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange.
  • It is the fifth-largest generic agrochemical company in the world (after Bayer, Dupont, Syngenta and BASF), with revenues of over USD 5.2 bn in FY 2023-24 (following the acquisition of Arysta LifeScience in 2019 for USD 4.2 bn).
  • The bond issuer, UPL Corp, is 78% owned by UPL Limited, with TPG and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority each holding 11% stakes. UPL Limited is 27.9% owned by the family of Rajnikant Shroff, who is known as the Crop Protection King.

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Jan 11
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Shift Inc, GDS Holdings , Lions Gate Entertainment , Perfect , SmartRent, Samsung Electronics, N-able , Commvault Systems, Geovis Insighter Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • NVIDIA @ CES 2025. Forget The AIPC, We’ve Got A Supercomputer PC!
  • [Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way
  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)
  • Weekly Update: January 10, 2025
  • PERF: Perfect Corp. Completes the Acquisition of Wannaby
  • How SmartRent’s SaaS Shift Is Unlocking High-Margin Growth & Long-Term Stability! – Major Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Jan-2025): Intel’s Panther Lake boosts AI PC growth, foundry recovery by 2H25.
  • N-able Inc.: Transition to Cloud-Based Solutions Powering Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • Commvault System: Recent SaaS & Subscription Growth Is Catapulting Their Performance! – Major Drivers
  • Geovis Insighter’s IPO Lifts Off in Style After Chang Guang Satellite’s Listing Crash

NVIDIA @ CES 2025. Forget The AIPC, We’ve Got A Supercomputer PC!

By William Keating

  • Project Digits is a supercomputer on everybody’s desk for $3000. Seems crazy but feels like 1977 Ken Olson moment “no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
  • Lack of data center revenue growth predictions likely spooked investors and triggered a ~10% pullback. Just buy the dip, you know you want to…
  • Micron and MediaTek both jumped on news of their further involvement in NVIDIA’s AI acceleration hardware supply chain. 

[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

By Travis Lundy

  • In December, I thought the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was going to be 2 ADDs 2 DELETEs and a double-capping for Fast Retailing. 
  • Fast Retailing has fallen sharply vs Nikkei 225, and another stock has announced a large-multiple share split, making it a strong candidate for Nikkei 225 ADDITION in March 2025.
  • There is short-term path risk on all three ADDs, but they are definitely worth watching. Keep an eye out for separate insights on two of these names.

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

By David Mudd

  • Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. 
  • GDS Holdings (9698 HK) , GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.
  • Tencent (700 HK) had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.

Weekly Update: January 10, 2025

By Richard Howe

  • Galapagos NV (GLPG), a Belgian biotechnology company, announced on January 8, 2025, its plan to split into two publicly traded entities by mid-2025.
  • Vivendi (VIV), the French media conglomerate, has recently undergone a significant restructuring by spinning off several of its key divisions into independent entities.
  • On December 30, 2024, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) filed its latest proxy related to the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). You can read it here.

PERF: Perfect Corp. Completes the Acquisition of Wannaby

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Perfect Corp. provides an AI and machine learning based B2B SaaS platform for virtual try on and marketing of beauty and fashion products as well as six mobile apps sold B2C for makeup suggestions, try-on, tutorials, photo and video editing and most recently, Gen AI creation and editing.
  • It is expanding its offering to new verticals and has strong IP as well as the largest database for AI training in the industry.
  • It has a dominant market share and serves almost all the major beauty brands worldwide.

How SmartRent’s SaaS Shift Is Unlocking High-Margin Growth & Long-Term Stability! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SmartRent’s recent performance and strategic initiatives provide a complex landscape for investment consideration, marked by both challenges and opportunities.
  • The company’s third-quarter results paint a picture of a business in transition, underscored by a leadership change and a strategic refocus on maximizing shareholder value through sustainable practices.
  • Positively, SmartRent demonstrated resilience with a 23% year-over-year increase in SaaS (Software as a Service) revenue, indicating strong growth potential within its recurring revenue model.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Jan-2025): Intel’s Panther Lake boosts AI PC growth, foundry recovery by 2H25.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Intel’s Panther Lake chip set to drive growth in AI PC market and spark resurgence in semiconductor foundry industry by second half of 2025.
  • Rapidus to provide 2nm chip samples to Broadcom, highlighting advancements in semiconductor technology and potential for increased performance.
  • Taiwanese companies eye opportunities in expanding renewable energy market in the Philippines, showcasing interest in sustainable business practices. CES 2025 sees Nvidia unveiling robot collaborations while concerns emerge over South Korea’s absence. Honda and Sony face uncertainty as Afeela 1 debuts, while Tata Elxsi and Qualcomm team up to develop virtual models of Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions. UK-Taiwan tech partnerships strengthen as British Representative to Taiwan concludes term, reflecting deepening alliance between the two countries.

N-able Inc.: Transition to Cloud-Based Solutions Powering Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • N-able’s earnings for the third quarter of 2024 revealed several critical insights into the company’s current performance and future strategies.
  • On the positive side, the company reported revenue of $116.4 million, marking an 8% year-over-year growth on a reported basis and 7% on a constant currency basis.
  • The Company also exceeded its guidance for this quarter.

Commvault System: Recent SaaS & Subscription Growth Is Catapulting Their Performance! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Commvault Systems, Inc. reported a robust second quarter for fiscal year 2025, marked by a significant increase in key financial metrics.
  • Total revenue reached $233 million, representing a 16% year-over-year increase and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth.
  • Subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) was particularly noteworthy, rising by 30% to $687 million, with software as a service (SaaS) ARR escalating by 64% to $215 million, now composing 25% of total ARR.

Geovis Insighter’s IPO Lifts Off in Style After Chang Guang Satellite’s Listing Crash

By Caixin Global

  • Geovis Insighter Technology Co Ltd, the first commercial aerospace company to list on the Beijing Stock Exchange, achieved a successful IPO with a surge of 407.23% on its debut, in contrast to the recent failed listing attempt by another Chinese satellite company.

  • Established in 2016, state-backed Geovis Insighter specializes in integrated solutions for spacecraft measurement, control management and aerospace digital simulation. The company’s stock was first listed on China’s New Third Board in February 2023.

  • Its price fell 17.6% Monday, leaving the company with a total market value of 4.3 billion yuan ($587 million), surpassing the required 200-million-yuan threshold.

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Jan 11
0

Daily Brief Industrials: ATS , bpost SA, Creek & River, Generac Holdings, GFL Environmental , Terex Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • ATS Corporation: Strategic Acquisitions & Market Diversification Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 January (Heineken | NN Group | Havas | bpostgroup | Triodos Bank | Dutch housing market)
  • Creek & River (4763 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
  • Generac Holdings Inc.: Innovation & Ecosystem Integration As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • GFL Environmental Inc.: An Insight Into Its Capital Allocation
  • Terex Faces Shifting Demand: Can Cost Control Keep Them Ahead of the Curve? – Major Drivers

ATS Corporation: Strategic Acquisitions & Market Diversification Propelling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ATS Corporation’s recent earnings report for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 reflects a mixed performance with both strategic advancements and operational challenges.
  • The company reported order bookings of $742 million, remaining flat year-over-year as growth in Life Sciences was offset by a decrease in Electric Vehicle (EV) bookings.
  • This decline was anticipated as ATS realigned its focus to reduce the prominence of the Transportation sector within its portfolio.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 January (Heineken | NN Group | Havas | bpostgroup | Triodos Bank | Dutch housing market)

By The IDEA!

  • In today’s edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas | ups FY24 guidance • bpostgroup | bpost offers packaging and label-free (L2L) shipping • Triodos Bank | offers a package of measures to its depository receipts (“DR”) holders • Dutch housing market | more homes sold in FY24; average transaction price up 11.5% YoY

Creek & River (4763 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by JPY274mn (+0.7% YoY), driven by Creative (Japan) and Other sectors, while operating profit decreased by JPY496mn (-14.2% YoY).
  • Revised full-year FY02/25 forecast projects revenue of JPY50.5bn (+1.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY3.9bn (-6.2% YoY).
  • Reduction in projects from major game publishers and structural reforms in Medical Staffing segment decreased operating profit by JPY950mn.

Generac Holdings Inc.: Innovation & Ecosystem Integration As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Generac Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter 2024 results, reflecting robust overall performance amidst increased demand due to power outages.
  • The company experienced a substantial rise in sales and profits, primarily driven by strong demand for residential products such as home standby and portable generators.
  • Third quarter net sales increased by approximately 10% year-over-year, reaching $1.2 billion, largely due to heightened power outage activity from hurricanes, which also prompted a raised outlook for the year.

GFL Environmental Inc.: An Insight Into Its Capital Allocation

By Baptista Research

  • GFL Environmental’s recent earnings call discussed its third-quarter 2024 results, highlighting both the strengths and challenges faced by the company.
  • During the period, GFL achieved significant financial performance, with a nearly 20% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a record-high adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.1%, showcasing a continuous improvement attributed to effective pricing strategies, superior operational efficiency, and strategic business realignments.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Terex Faces Shifting Demand: Can Cost Control Keep Them Ahead of the Curve? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Terex Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 earnings call provides insights into the company’s performance, recent strategic moves, and expectations going forward.
  • The earnings report highlights several critical factors for potential investors to consider.
  • On the positive side, Terex made significant progress by acquiring the Environmental Solutions Group (ESG) from Dover Corporation.

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Jan 11
0

Daily Brief Health Care: WuXi XDC Cayman , HCA Healthcare, Inc. , Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, Oxford Nanopore Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well
  • HCA Healthcare: The Volume Growth & Payer Mix Dynamics! – Major Drivers
  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Growth Momentum Intact; FY25 Guidance Raised
  • Hardman & Co Monthly: January 2025

Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$150m via selling around 3% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

HCA Healthcare: The Volume Growth & Payer Mix Dynamics! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • HCA Healthcare recently held its third-quarter earnings call, and the insights provided offer a complex view of the company’s current position and future outlook.
  • The financial results reflected strong performance despite notable challenges, particularly from recent hurricanes.
  • Positively, HCA Healthcare reported substantial year-over-year growth in several key financial metrics.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Growth Momentum Intact; FY25 Guidance Raised

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported single-digit revenue growth and net profit growth in low-teens during 9MFY25, on the back of 13% YoY growth in Salonpas focused OTC segment.
  • Rx business revenue grew 4% YoY as new products such as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch, Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers.
  • Hisamitsu raised its FY25 guidance for revenue by 1% to ¥154B, operating profit by 24% to ¥18B, and net profit by 24% to ¥20.5B.

Hardman & Co Monthly: January 2025

By Hardman & Co

  • Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index, 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences By Dr Martin Hall The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets.
  • Many of the 53 constituents of the index are high-risk, with micro-capitalisations and a long way from profitability.
  • Despite this, some companies can still make extremely attractive returns for investors.

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Jan 11
0

Daily Brief Financials: VCredit Holdings Ltd, Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H), S&P 500 INDEX, Banco De Sabadell SA, Hyundai Motor Securities, Suntec REIT, Shui On Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close
  • GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go
  • EQD| SPX Volatility During the Trump Years (2017-2020)
  • BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell: A Tough Road Ahead
  • Hyundai Motor Securities: FSS Approves A 200 Billion Won Capital Raise + Rising Real Estate PF Risk
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Jan-2025): Gordon Tang raises bid for Suntec REIT.
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 20 December, VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman. and concert parties.
  • The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. 
  • VCredit’s Composite Doc is now out, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says “not fair and not reasonable“. Trading 45% through terms.

GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 9th October, China’s leading state-backed brokerages Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) (GJS) and Haitong Securities (6837 HK) announced a scrip merger, with GJS the surviving entity.
  • Barring a China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)-like obstacle/debacle, this transaction was a wrap. Fortunately, key regulatory approvals (SAMR and SASAC) have been ticked off.
  • Approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was secured overnight. That was a formality. One approval remains – CSRC. Expect that condition to be satisfied shortly. GJS is no longer shortable.

EQD| SPX Volatility During the Trump Years (2017-2020)

By John Ley

  • Common perception is that Trump = Volatility. We look at average monthly historic volatility and returns across 2017-2020 and compare with prior 19 years.
  • Trumps term in office included “Volmageddon”, the Christmas Massacre and Covid but we still find that the returns and historic volatility were not out of line.
  • Although a small sample size, we see a pattern to how historic volatility deviated from the average over his last term in office. 

BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell: A Tough Road Ahead

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Lower Acceptance Threshold: BBVA reduced its tender offer threshold to 49.3%, excluding Sabadell’s 1.4% treasury shares to ensure voting rights focus on active shareholders.
  • Shareholder and Regulatory Hurdles: Retail shareholder resistance, extended antitrust reviews, and opposition from Spanish and Catalonian governments complicate the takeover.
  • Sabadell’s Defensive Moves: A €2.9 billion shareholder return plan, potential treasury share expansion to 10%, and Zurich’s 3% stake further reduce the offer’s likelihood of success.

Hyundai Motor Securities: FSS Approves A 200 Billion Won Capital Raise + Rising Real Estate PF Risk

By Douglas Kim

  • On 10 January, it was reported that Hyundai Motor Securities (001500 KS)’s 200 billion won capital increase plan passed the Financial Supervisory Service’s review.
  • Based on the recent revised report to the FSS, Hyundai Motor Securities disclosed that there is a risk of loss in domestic real estate PF and overseas real estate investment.
  • The company’s decision to proceed with the capital raise is likely to weaken its share price to below its expected rights offering price of 6,640 won in the coming weeks.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Jan-2025): Gordon Tang raises bid for Suntec REIT.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Gordon Tang increases buyout offer for Suntec REIT in response to investor dissatisfaction with original bid.
  • Texas teachers ramp up real estate investments, committing 61% more funds totaling $1.6 billion by 2024.
  • The Cheng family of Hong Kong faces challenges as an Australian casino operator experiences a cash shortage, impacting their holdings.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shui On Land, Country Garden
  • In the US, the UST curve bull flattened slightly in a shortened trading session. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 4.27%, while that on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.69%.
  • The US equity market was closed yesterday, in observance of the national day of mourning for former president Jimmy Carter.

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Jan 11
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Samsung KODEX Autos ETF, E Mart Inc, Adani Wilmar, Destination Xl Group, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Onward Holdings, Pepsico Inc, LXJ International Holdings, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Skyline Champion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX’s Responses to TMI-Related Confusions on KRX Semicon & Autos Rebalancing
  • Chung Yong-Jin Will Receive 10% of E Mart Shares from His Mum to Become the Controlling Shareholder
  • A Strategic Pivot: Adani Enterprises Exits Adani Wilmar for $2B
  • Destination XL Group Faces Potential Buyout: Fund 1 Investments Considers Raising Initial $3/Share Offer
  • Growth Policy Score Improved with the Request to Raise P/B, but Other Criteria Are in the Process
  • Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q3 FY02/24 flash update
  • PepsiCo Inc.: Portfolio Diversification & Innovation As A Vital Tool For Growth! – Major Drivers
  • LXJ International Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • ‘Colorful’ 2024 For Cambodia In Rubber, Tire Sectors
  • Champion Homes: Can Its Mergers & Acquisitions Strategy Serve As A Growth Factor? – Major Drivers

KRX’s Responses to TMI-Related Confusions on KRX Semicon & Autos Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX confirmed no immediate changes on KRX Semicon and KRX Autos. The universe will switch from BMI to TMI large and mid-caps, with constituent updates happening in the September rebalancing.
  • TMI rebalances quarterly, while KRX Semicon and Autos rebalance annually in September. KRX confirmed these indices will use the September TMI rebalancing results.
  • TMI rebalances quarterly, likely releasing results before KRX Sector Indices, giving a window to predict shifts in KRX Semicon and Autos stocks and position ahead of the sector rebalancing.

Chung Yong-Jin Will Receive 10% of E Mart Shares from His Mum to Become the Controlling Shareholder

By Douglas Kim

  • E Mart’s Chairman Chung Yong-Jin will receive the entire 10% shares of E Mart held by his mum Lee Myung-Hee.
  • After this transaction, Chung Yong-Jin will become the largest shareholder in E Mart with a 28.6% stake in the company.
  • This is likely to positively impact E Mart. In Korea, when the final major ownership stake is transferred, there is often a positive boost to the share price.

A Strategic Pivot: Adani Enterprises Exits Adani Wilmar for $2B

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) exits Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN), selling its entire 44% stake for over $2 billion, redirecting funds toward core infrastructure ambitions.
  • The exit frees capital for energy, transport, and logistics projects, showcasing Adani’s commitment to strategic resource deployment and robust corporate governance.
  • Adani’s strategic divestment highlights its focus on infrastructure-driven growth, underscoring the potential for shareholder value creation through timely exits from non-core businesses.

Destination XL Group Faces Potential Buyout: Fund 1 Investments Considers Raising Initial $3/Share Offer

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Destination XL Group received a non-binding $3/share proposal from Fund 1 Investments, holding a 21% stake.
  • Fund 1’s offer values DXLG at 6.1x EBITDA, with potential for a higher bid if additional value is identified.
  • DXLG repurchased 6.6% of shares in Q3 2024 at an average price of $2.80/share, totaling $10 million.

Growth Policy Score Improved with the Request to Raise P/B, but Other Criteria Are in the Process

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It is commendable that more listed companies as a whole are setting ROE and ROIC as their targets. The real value of actually achieving these goals will now be tested.
  • Dividend Policy score, Treasury Shares Retirement score, AGM Disclosure score, and IR Disclosure score improved slightly, but the listed companies as a whole have yet to show improvement.
  • Even though higher stock prices negatively impacted Policy Stock Holding score, overall improvement has not been achieved for the listed companies. Cash allocation also remains an issue for many companies.

Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q3 FY02/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Onward Holdings’ sales increased by 6.1% YoY to JPY149.9bn, while operating profit decreased by 11.8% YoY to JPY8.6bn.
  • Domestic Business sales rose by 6.5% YoY to JPY136.8bn, but operating profit fell by 14.9% YoY.
  • Overseas Business sales increased by 1.3% YoY to JPY13.1bn, with a significant narrowing of operating loss.

PepsiCo Inc.: Portfolio Diversification & Innovation As A Vital Tool For Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PepsiCo’s results for the third quarter of 2024 reflected the complexities of navigating through evolving consumer habits and geopolitical challenges.
  • The company reported a deceleration in growth due to several factors, indicating both challenges and strategic initiatives needed for future growth.
  • One of the main highlights is the Frito-Lay segment, which, after experiencing significant double-digit growth over the last few years, is expected to normalize this year.

LXJ International Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • LXJ International Holdings (LXJ HK) is looking to raise atleast US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Haitong.
  • LXJ International Holdings Limited (LXJIH) is a Chinese-style QSR brand having a chain of fast food restaurants in China.
  • It was ranked first in the Chinese-style QSR industry in China by GMV in 2023, according to CIC, making it the largest Chinese-style QSR brand in China.

‘Colorful’ 2024 For Cambodia In Rubber, Tire Sectors

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Highlights ·       Set to finish 2024 with a 30% rise in rubber sale values YoY ·       Exports tires worth US$772.5 million during Jan-Nov 2024 ·       Minister charts course of action for 2025   Cambodia has made impressive strides in 2024, fueled by higher global rubber prices and exceptional progress in its burgeoning tire production and export industry, marking a pivotal step in its transformation into a key player in the global rubber value chain.
  •   The Southeast Asian kingdom earned US$472 million from exports of NR latex during January-October 2024, up 22.5% over the same period the previous year.
  • On the other hand, it gained US$568 million from exports of the product during January-November 2024, up 26.7% over the same period in 2023.

Champion Homes: Can Its Mergers & Acquisitions Strategy Serve As A Growth Factor? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Champion Homes showcased a robust performance in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, highlighting several strategic advancements and operational efficiencies, although not without challenges.
  • The company’s net sales saw a substantial year-over-year increase of 33% to $617 million, significantly boosted by a 37% rise in U.S. factory-built housing revenue.
  • This growth was predominantly driven by a 31% increase in the U.S. homes sold, aided by the augmented retail and manufacturing capacity following the Regional Homes acquisition, which alone contributed $148 million to the quarter’s net sales.

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Jan 11
0

Most Read: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Seven & I Holdings, Horizon Robotics, Inari Amertron, Samsung KODEX Autos ETF, VCredit Holdings Ltd, Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H), Shift Inc, WuXi XDC Cayman and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • 7&I (3382 JP) – Dippity Doo Dah – Irrational Fears, Earnings Vol, But Restructuring Proceeding Apace
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March
  • Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases
  • Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger: The Home Stretch
  • KRX’s Responses to TMI-Related Confusions on KRX Semicon & Autos Rebalancing
  • VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close
  • GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go
  • [Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way
  • Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas

7&I (3382 JP) – Dippity Doo Dah – Irrational Fears, Earnings Vol, But Restructuring Proceeding Apace

By Travis Lundy

  • Recent news on the Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) situation includes better-than-expected possible sale of the SST business, a little headline fear-mongering on national security, and earnings.
  • Earnings this year will be volatile vs expectations. Timing (and magnitude) of kitchen-sinking matters. But neither ACT nor you should be buying it based on trough earnings expectations.
  • The call transcript is worth listening to. The math on the takeover maths well. This is a buy on dip. Again. 

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 31 December. The changes will be announced on 21 February and become effective after the close 7 March.
  • There could be 5 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a potential inclusion to the HSCI and the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.

Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.
  • Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger: The Home Stretch

By Arun George

  • The exchange ratio for the merger between Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) is 0.62x. 
  • The merger closing is subject to several effectiveness and implementation conditions. The latest update suggests that the remaining conditions are CSRC and HKEx approvals.
  • The satisfaction of the remaining conditions is a formality. At the last close and for an end February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.2%/26.4%. 

KRX’s Responses to TMI-Related Confusions on KRX Semicon & Autos Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX confirmed no immediate changes on KRX Semicon and KRX Autos. The universe will switch from BMI to TMI large and mid-caps, with constituent updates happening in the September rebalancing.
  • TMI rebalances quarterly, while KRX Semicon and Autos rebalance annually in September. KRX confirmed these indices will use the September TMI rebalancing results.
  • TMI rebalances quarterly, likely releasing results before KRX Sector Indices, giving a window to predict shifts in KRX Semicon and Autos stocks and position ahead of the sector rebalancing.

VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 20 December, VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman. and concert parties.
  • The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. 
  • VCredit’s Composite Doc is now out, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says “not fair and not reasonable“. Trading 45% through terms.

GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 9th October, China’s leading state-backed brokerages Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) (GJS) and Haitong Securities (6837 HK) announced a scrip merger, with GJS the surviving entity.
  • Barring a China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)-like obstacle/debacle, this transaction was a wrap. Fortunately, key regulatory approvals (SAMR and SASAC) have been ticked off.
  • Approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was secured overnight. That was a formality. One approval remains – CSRC. Expect that condition to be satisfied shortly. GJS is no longer shortable.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

By Travis Lundy

  • In December, I thought the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was going to be 2 ADDs 2 DELETEs and a double-capping for Fast Retailing. 
  • Fast Retailing has fallen sharply vs Nikkei 225, and another stock has announced a large-multiple share split, making it a strong candidate for Nikkei 225 ADDITION in March 2025.
  • There is short-term path risk on all three ADDs, but they are definitely worth watching. Keep an eye out for separate insights on two of these names.

Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$150m via selling around 3% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Diverging Results for Fast & Seven and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Diverging Results for Fast & Seven
  • Cement Industry: Is the Revival Feasible in H2FY25?
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 3-9, 2025
  • #84 India Insight: GMR Secures ₹6,300 Cr Inv, ONGC-BP Partnership, 46% Rise In Indian PE Investments
  • China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 – January‌ 4, 2025
  • Singapore Market Roundup (09-Jan-2025): UOB Kay Hian raises Digital Core REIT TP to 99 US cents.
  • WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap – Trends That Could Shape Chemicals and Materials Industries in 2025

Ohayo Japan | Diverging Results for Fast & Seven

By Mark Chadwick

  • The US equity markets were closed on Thursday in honour of the national day of mourning following the passing of former President Jimmy Carter.
  • Fast Retailing, Uniqlo’s parent company, reported a 7.4% rise in quarterly operating profit to ¥157.6bn
  • Seven & i Holdings reported a 65% drop in nine-month net profit to ¥63.6bn, citing difficulties in North American operations

Cement Industry: Is the Revival Feasible in H2FY25?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The first half of FY25 presented headwinds for the cement industry due to factors like delayed monsoon, elections amidst season and decline in the rural Demand.
  • The all-India average trade cement price reached Rs 372/bag in December 2024, a 2.9% MoM increase and cement demand grew by a mere 3% in Q2FY25.
  • The government’s commitment to infrastructure is evident in the 6% increase in capital expenditure for FY25 as per the Union budget and the ambitious National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP). 

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 3-9, 2025

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources

#84 India Insight: GMR Secures ₹6,300 Cr Inv, ONGC-BP Partnership, 46% Rise In Indian PE Investments

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • GMR Group secures Rs. 6,300 crore investment from Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) to reduce debt of GMR Enterprises Pvt Ltd. 
  • Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)  has partnered with BP to enhance production at the Mumbai High fields, projecting a $10.3 billion revenue increase over the next decade. 
  • Private equity investments in India surged to $15 billion in 2024, a 46% increase, driven by sectors like healthcare, technology, and consumer industries.

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 – January‌ 4, 2025

By Stan Zhao

  • The two new titles released in December, <One Piece: Ambition> and <Where Winds Meet>, from Tencent and NetEase, have shown promising early results and should become major blockbusters in 2025
  • For Tencent, the holiday updates for <DnF Mobile> and <Arena Breakout> have underperformed, leading us to revise our revenue expectations downward by approximately 10%.
  • Bilibili’s key title, <Three Kingdoms: MDTX>, has seen a slight decline in popularity,  due to the intense competition in the SLG genre. The future seasonal updates could rejuvenate the performance.

Singapore Market Roundup (09-Jan-2025): UOB Kay Hian raises Digital Core REIT TP to 99 US cents.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • UOB Kay Hian raises Digital Core REIT TP to 99 US cents, highlighting positive developments in the company.
  • UOB Kay Hian maintains ‘buy’ rating on SingPost, stating that divestments are progressing as planned.
  • DBS notes that despite a soft Singapore retail sector, premium groceries have long-term potential for growth. UOB Kay Hian also reveals top Malaysian stock picks in property, construction, and energy sectors.

WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap – Trends That Could Shape Chemicals and Materials Industries in 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Political policies could affect markets across the spectrum.
  • The incoming administration’s more hawkish attitude when it comes to potentially destabilizing implementation of tariffs as a political rather than economic tool could result in greater volatility when it comes to commodity and finished goods pricing and availability, while its greater focus on domestic energy production and onshoring of supply chains could provide opportunities and lead to lower energy and logistics costs.

  • Lower energy and feedstock costs could drive margin improvement. 

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief ECM: Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – India and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – India
  • Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Showing Some Recent Weakness in Margins
  • Greaves Electric Mobility Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • LXJ International IPO Preview
  • Crizac Pre-IPO – Expanding Network and Service Portfolio to Drive Growth
  • Bloks Group IPO Trading – Strongest HK IPO Demand in Recent Years

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – India

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong earlier.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Showing Some Recent Weakness in Margins

By Clarence Chu

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
  • In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss its refiling updates.

Greaves Electric Mobility Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Greaves Electric Mobility Ltd (GEML) (1295040D IN) is looking to raise about US$120m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Motilal Oswal, IIFL, JM fin.
  • GEML is a manufacturer of electric vehicles in India, specializing in electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers.
  • The company is recognized as one of the pioneers in India’s electric vehicle (EV) market, playing a significant role in driving EV adoption in the country, as per CRISIL Report.

LXJ International IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • LXJ International Holdings (LXJ HK) (knowns as Lao Xiang Ji or Home Original Chicken) is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in 1H 2025. 
  • Founded in 1982 by Shu Congxuan, LXJ International specializes in traditional Chinese style chicken dishes. The company is one of the major local players in China’s fast food industry.
  • LXJ’s solid growth in sales and profits in the past several years despite weak Chinese economy is a strong reflection of the company’s loyal customers in China. 

Crizac Pre-IPO – Expanding Network and Service Portfolio to Drive Growth

By Akshat Shah

  • Crizac (CRIZAC IN) is looking to raise US$120m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Crizac is an education platform offering international student recruitment solutions to global institutions of higher education in the United Kingdom, Canada, Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand (ANZ).
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Bloks Group IPO Trading – Strongest HK IPO Demand in Recent Years

By Clarence Chu

  • Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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