Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 285bn (US$8.75bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 16% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.8bn.
An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since the start of July with most of the outperformance coming from September.

A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning

The EGM for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is expected to be held on 23 January 2025. Accordingly, the shareholder registry is expected to be closed around 19 – 23 December.
By better analyzing the timeline of the M&A of SM Entertainment, we may be able to get better clues to Korea Zinc’s price movement in the next several weeks.
Notice the double top share price formation of SM Entertainment in 2023 versus the potential double top formation of Korea Zinc in 2024. These trading formations look eerily similar.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – Bain Bumps UnBigly, and FSI Responds

~4 weeks ago, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) responded to Bain’s Proposal to take over the company but got KKR to bid ¥1 more, then said that covered it.
The Special Committee then asked the FSI Board to halt further negotiations with Bain, and to ask Bain to destroy all confidential documentation.
Bain rejected saying it contravened METI Guidelines on Corporate Takeovers and reappeared 2 days ago with a ¥9,600 bid. The structure/details of Bain’s bid was probably a strategy mistake.

Kioxia IPO Trading – Decent Demand for Decent Upside

By Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) raised around US$800m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO, after pricing its IPO in the middle of its range.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in February

The review period for the February rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) ends in two weeks.
There could be two changes for the index with passive trackers needing to trade between 23-64x ADV in the stocks.
The passive buying is a lot larger than the passive selling, there will be funding outflows for the other index constituents; some stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.

Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)

Today post-close, activist/engagement investor Oasis Management filed a new LSR on Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) owning 7.12% of shares as of 13-Dec-2024. Reason: Defend shareholder value, propose measures to management.
That is 7.56-7.65% of effective voting/tender rights. It’s big enough to matter. Of course, the stock has not traded below terms once since full trading started post-announcement.
And this was warned in CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) – Wrong Price, Wrong Register – Expect Activism or An Overbid. Shareholder structure REALLY matters.

A Passive Flow Trading Event that Sparked Wild Price Action in Korea Is Happening Again

By Sanghyun Park

This event drew significant attention, causing unusual price action. From Sept 20 to Nov 29, corrections in the deletions far outpaced the KOSPI, with the trend holding across key checkpoints.
We’re watching 4 stocks: Kumho Petro, Lotte Chemical, Posco DX, and EcoPro Materials. SK Bioscience and Enchem are close, with small price moves likely pushing them out.
Based on past rebalancing patterns, proactive positions on these names could trigger strong price action. All except Enchem have listed futures and solid volume, making trading conditions favorable.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$3.2bn Trade with BIG Impact

There are 8 changes a side for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919TW) has an AUM of US$9.3bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 17.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. All adds and deletes have over 5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF started trading some stocks late last week and the rest from 17 December.

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang

Today, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.
Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.
Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.

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Dec 18

Daily Brief Consumer: Macromill, Inc, DiDi Global, Goldlion Holdings, Lotte Shopping Co, Vishal Mega Mart, Fosun Tourism, Dongwon Industries, Abc Mart Inc, Hong Kong Television Network, Mission Produce and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)
2025 High Conviction Idea – DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Tsang Family’s Scheme
Lotte Shopping and Potentially Others Are Shaping up as Fresh Picks for Dividend Arbitrage Plays
Vishal Mega Mart IPO Trading – Strong Demand Despite Not so Strong Anchor
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In
[Quiddity Index] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: Up to 6 Changes Possible
ABC Mart Forges Further Ahead of Competitors
Hktv (1137) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024
Mission Produce Inc (AVO) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)

Today post-close, activist/engagement investor Oasis Management filed a new LSR on Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) owning 7.12% of shares as of 13-Dec-2024. Reason: Defend shareholder value, propose measures to management.
That is 7.56-7.65% of effective voting/tender rights. It’s big enough to matter. Of course, the stock has not traded below terms once since full trading started post-announcement.
And this was warned in CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) – Wrong Price, Wrong Register – Expect Activism or An Overbid. Shareholder structure REALLY matters.

2025 High Conviction Idea – DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

By David Mudd

DiDi Global (DIDI US) has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO. With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.
Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.
The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Tsang Family’s Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

After Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), an apparel manufacturer/distributor, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, the obvious Offeror, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (63.09% stakeholder).
And that it’s exactly what unfolded. The Cancellation Price is $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a punchy 71% premium to undisturbed.
The long stop is the 30th September 2025. This will probably be completed in less than half the time. There will be a question mark over the low price-to-book multiple.

Lotte Shopping and Potentially Others Are Shaping up as Fresh Picks for Dividend Arbitrage Plays

By Sanghyun Park

At today’s close, Lotte Shopping (023530 KS) shows solid contango for a basis trade, with LS Corp (006260 KS) next; the rest are too tight or dry.
Lotte Shopping surprised the market today, changing its dividend record date to a board-set day, wiping out the backwardation that matched its dividend yield until yesterday.
Lotte Shopping’s move could signal other stocks changing dividend dates, causing similar dislocations. With a 7% yield and solid SSF volume, it’s prime for aggressive dividend arbitrage.

Vishal Mega Mart IPO Trading – Strong Demand Despite Not so Strong Anchor

By Sumeet Singh

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM) raised around US$950m in its India IPO.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

By Osbert Tang, CFA

It is difficult for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.
Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.
Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.

[Quiddity Index] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: Up to 6 Changes Possible

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
We expect up to six ADDs and six DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

ABC Mart Forges Further Ahead of Competitors

By Michael Causton

The disparity between the leading footwear retailers continues to widen.
ABC Mart is pulling so far ahead that it has the market almost to itself.
Chiyoda may have finally turned the corner but G-Foot may need further financial support from Aeon.

Hktv (1137) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

HKTV is a prominent e-commerce platform in Hong Kong facing challenges from the pandemic and retail market.
Founder Ricky Wong has shown a history of moonshot diversifications and strong leadership from executives like Jelly Zhou, leading to renewed optimism for the company.
With a low valuation, potential for growth, and Ricky Wong’s history of successful ventures, HKTV could be a lucrative investment opportunity in the future.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Mission Produce Inc (AVO) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

Mission Produce Produce buys, ages, packages, and distributes avocados through facilities in the US, Canada, Mexico, and the UK with around 1,000 suppliers
Majority of avocado volume sourced from Mexico, California, and Peru, with top 10 customers accounting for 60% of sales
Company considered low-quality, volatile business with minimal cash flow generation and projected lower earnings in F2025, overpriced based on normalized earnings estimates

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Dec 18

Daily Brief Industrials: Acter Co Ltd, Astronics Corp, International Distributions Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

A Review of Asian Dividend Gems in 2024
Astronics Corp (ATRO) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024
Green Light from British Government

A Review of Asian Dividend Gems in 2024

In this insight, we review the share price performances of the 18 companies/insights on the Asian Dividend Gems in 2024.
The 18 stocks in the Asian Dividend Gems published in 2024 are up on average 4.5% from the date of publishing the insight to current price.
The 18 companies included in the Asian Dividend Gems series this year currently have an average dividend yield of 7.1% and average SmartScore of 4.0 (out of 5.0).

Astronics Corp (ATRO) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

Astronics Corporation is an aerospace components manufacturer specializing in electrical power systems, seat motion systems, and automated test systems.
The company presents a low-risk investment opportunity at 6x normalized EBITDA, despite challenges in the commercial aerospace sector.
With a focus on Aerospace and Test Systems products, Astronics remains an attractive investment option in the aerospace and defense industry.

Green Light from British Government

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group’s £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail’s headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.
IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.
A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.

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Dec 18

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Posco DX, Phison Electronics, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Microsoft Corp, LG CNS, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, ATN International, Mitsui & Co Ltd, Telecom Italia SPA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

A Passive Flow Trading Event that Sparked Wild Price Action in Korea Is Happening Again
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$3.2bn Trade with BIG Impact
Crypto Crisp: QQQ’d MicroStrategy
Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal
LG CNS IPO Industry Analysis
2025 High Conviction – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM, TPE: 2330)
Atn International Inc (ATNI) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024
LG CNS Pre-IPO – Peer Comp – Doesn’t Really Stand Out in Growth, Although OPM Were at the Higher End
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Dec-2024): German gov funds TSMC’s Dresden fab.
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘24 Report

A Passive Flow Trading Event that Sparked Wild Price Action in Korea Is Happening Again

By Sanghyun Park

This event drew significant attention, causing unusual price action. From Sept 20 to Nov 29, corrections in the deletions far outpaced the KOSPI, with the trend holding across key checkpoints.
We’re watching 4 stocks: Kumho Petro, Lotte Chemical, Posco DX, and EcoPro Materials. SK Bioscience and Enchem are close, with small price moves likely pushing them out.
Based on past rebalancing patterns, proactive positions on these names could trigger strong price action. All except Enchem have listed futures and solid volume, making trading conditions favorable.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$3.2bn Trade with BIG Impact

There are 8 changes a side for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919TW) has an AUM of US$9.3bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 17.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. All adds and deletes have over 5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF started trading some stocks late last week and the rest from 17 December.

Crypto Crisp: QQQ’d MicroStrategy

By Mads Eberhardt

Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $107,000 and steadily moving toward $110,000, as we predicted in Crypto Moves #55.
That note remains highly relevant.
Among the three most notable developments of the past week, MicroStrategy has been “QQQ’d.” Find out what that entails below, along with the other two standout pieces of news and the key charts shaping the market as we head into one of the last weeks of 2024.

Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

By Joe Jasper

Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.

LG CNS IPO Industry Analysis

The IT service market in Korea is estimated to be 51.5 trillion won in 2023 and it is expected to growth at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028.
The Cloud & AI market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 10.5% from 32.7 trillion won in 2023 to 53.8 trillion won in 2028.
LG CNS had about 8.9% share in the IT services market in Korea in 2023.

2025 High Conviction – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM, TPE: 2330)

By Garvit Bhandari

TSM is upbeat on the AI demand and remains confident that the cycle has just begun with long a runway for growth ahead.
TSM’s primary competitors, Intel and Samsung Electronics, are currently facing challenges within their foundry operations, placing TSM in a favorable position to expand its market share
The Company anticipates a strong closing for FY:24 and has guided for nearly 35% YOY revenue growth in Q4 2024. We believe the momentum will continue in 2024E-2026E.

Atn International Inc (ATNI) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

ATNI, a telecom company, has been overlooked due to industry setbacks
Company’s businesses are healthy and poised for growth in revenue and EBITDA in 2025 and beyond
Expected free cash flow inflection point could lead to increased dividends, stock repurchases, and debt reduction, potentially doubling stock value in two years based on projected 2026 estimates

LG CNS Pre-IPO – Peer Comp – Doesn’t Really Stand Out in Growth, Although OPM Were at the Higher End

By Clarence Chu

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise around US$850m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Dec-2024): German gov funds TSMC’s Dresden fab.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

German government approves financing for TSMC’s fab in Dresden, boosting semiconductor production in Europe.
Kaynes Semi secures anchor customer in power electronics, bolstering its position in the market.
Suchi Semicon opens Gujarat’s first OSAT facility; Google appoints new India head to advance AI technology.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Since mid-November, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 unchanged) with few changes in the trends.
The most notorious reversal has been Telecom Italia. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.

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Dec 18

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Shin Etsu Chemical, Rio Tinto Ltd, Natural Gas, Arrow Exploration Corp, Delta Dunia Makmur, Crude Oil, Trigon Metals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang
Rio’s Stausholm makes his defining bet
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook
Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Material Discovery at Alberta Llanos
Delta Dunia Makmur – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 – Eyeing $67 on the Pullback
TM: Kombat Mine Acquisition Update

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang

Today, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.
Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.
Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.

Rio’s Stausholm makes his defining bet

By Money of Mine

Rio doubles down on lithium investment in Rincon, with a US $2.5 billion expansion plan
BHP and Rio have historically had differing views on commodities, with examples in Potash, aluminium, and mineral sands
Rincon project aims to expand production to 60,000 tonnes per annum, with heavy reliance on DLE technology for extraction and processing

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Material Discovery at Alberta Llanos

By Auctus Advisors

The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well has encountered four main hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs with a total true vertical depth of 121 feet, including the C7, Gacheta, Guadalupe, and Ubaque formations.
The main pre-drill targets were the C7 and the Ubaque formations.
The Gacheta and Guadalupe formations carried a higher risk, and encountering these two formations is a positive.

Delta Dunia Makmur – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (BUMA) is a holding company with an operational entity, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, which is one of the largest coal-mining contractors in Indonesia by production volume.
Its two other subsidiaries, PT Banyubiru Sakti and PT Pulau Mutiara Persada, are non-active entities which held coal exploration permits.
Formerly a textile business, BUMA was transformed into a real estate company in 2008 following the sale of the erstwhile business.

EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 – Eyeing $67 on the Pullback

By Nico Rosti

Crude Oil (CL1) has been steadily downtrending since June 2022. More recently (from the start of October) a flat bottom started to form, with attempts to rise higher.
The front-month future (Feb25) is range bound at the moment, between 71 (top) and 66 (bottom).
Our models see a strong barrier at 73, and a decent support at 67 for the next 2 weeks, check the insight to get all the details.

TM: Kombat Mine Acquisition Update

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • Trigon provided an update on the previously proposed acquisition of the Kombat Mine by Horizon Corporation.
• Subject to final negotiation and approvals, the acquisition will consist of $30M plus between $10-20M in additional payments based on specific operational milestones.
• TM also announced it has signed a binding loan agreement with Horizon for up to $5M to allow for the project to continue to advance.

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Dec 18

Daily Brief Industrials: Acter Co Ltd, Astronics Corp, International Distributions Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

A Review of Asian Dividend Gems in 2024
Astronics Corp (ATRO) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024
Green Light from British Government

A Review of Asian Dividend Gems in 2024

In this insight, we review the share price performances of the 18 companies/insights on the Asian Dividend Gems in 2024.
The 18 stocks in the Asian Dividend Gems published in 2024 are up on average 4.5% from the date of publishing the insight to current price.
The 18 companies included in the Asian Dividend Gems series this year currently have an average dividend yield of 7.1% and average SmartScore of 4.0 (out of 5.0).

Astronics Corp (ATRO) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

Astronics Corporation is an aerospace components manufacturer specializing in electrical power systems, seat motion systems, and automated test systems.
The company presents a low-risk investment opportunity at 6x normalized EBITDA, despite challenges in the commercial aerospace sector.
With a focus on Aerospace and Test Systems products, Astronics remains an attractive investment option in the aerospace and defense industry.

Green Light from British Government

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group’s £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail’s headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.
IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.
A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.

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Dec 18

Daily Brief Health Care: SAI Life Sciences, BeiGene , Inventurus Knowledge Solutions, Xunfei Healthcare Technology, Newron Pharmaceuticals, Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag, Recce Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Sai Life Sciences IPO Trading – Strong Anchor Demand with Decent Overall Coverage
HK CEO & Director Dealings (17th Dec 2024): BeiGene, China Wantian, Super Hi Int’l/Haidilao
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO Trading: Decent Anchor Quality and Strong Subscription Results
Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology (PHIP Updates) – Profitability Are Always the Pain Points
Newron Pharmaceuticals – Evenamide licence agreement in Japan
Basilea Pharmaceutica – Partner in place for US commercialisation of Zevtera
Recce Pharmaceuticals – BPOM clearance to start Phase III R327G study

Sai Life Sciences IPO Trading – Strong Anchor Demand with Decent Overall Coverage

By Akshat Shah

SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) raised around US$360m in its India IPO.
Sai Life Sciences is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation providing end-to-end services across drug discovery, development and manufacturing value-chain, for small to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (17th Dec 2024): BeiGene, China Wantian, Super Hi Int’l/Haidilao

By David Blennerhassett

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: BeiGene (6160 HK), China Wantian Holdings (1854 HK), and Super Hi International Holding (9658 HK) / Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK).

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO Trading: Decent Anchor Quality and Strong Subscription Results

By Nicholas Tan

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO.
IKS is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology (PHIP Updates) – Profitability Are Always the Pain Points

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Medical industry characteristics are the seriousness of diagnosis/treatment and the irreversibility of the process, which are the difficulties in implementing technology. The value that AI can provide is limited.
Xunfei’s business model is not To C, but To G (government) model. It’s not possible for SOE customers to pay high price for Xunfei’s AI model/products, leading to questionable profitability.
Pre-IPO valuation has reached RMB8.4 billion. Without sustainable growth and stable profitability, valuation/liquidity of Xunfei after listing wouldn’t be good. We think Xunfei’s valuation could be similar to Yidu Tech.

Newron Pharmaceuticals – Evenamide licence agreement in Japan

By Edison Investment Research

Newron has entered into a licence agreement with EA Pharma, a subsidiary of Eisai, to develop, manufacture and commercialise evenamide, Newron’s proprietary modulator of the excessive release of glutamate for the treatment of schizophrenia. The transaction covers Japan and other designated Asian territories, meeting management’s target of securing a deal in Q424. Newron will receive an upfront payment of €44m, up to €73m in contributions to development and milestones, and will be eligible to tiered royalties up to a double-digit percentage of net sales for evenamide in the covered regions. We expect the upfront payment to extend Newron’s operating cash runway, enabling it to maintain operations through 2026 at a minimum (versus through H125 previously). We place our estimates under review as we update our model to reflect the terms of the announcement.

Basilea Pharmaceutica – Partner in place for US commercialisation of Zevtera

By Edison Investment Research

Following FDA approval in April 2024, Basilea has announced a much-anticipated partnership agreement with Innoviva Specialty Therapeutics for the commercialisation of Zevtera in the US. Deal terms include an upfront payment of US$4m, as well as tiered royalties on net sales in the high-teens to mid-20s percentage range. In addition, the company is eligible to receive up to US$223m in sales-related milestone payments. We view this as an important milestone and highly favourable transaction for Basilea, while offering an effective new medicine to combat Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections in the US. For now, we put our valuation on hold as we review our model and estimates.

Recce Pharmaceuticals – BPOM clearance to start Phase III R327G study

By Edison Investment Research

Recce received approval from the Indonesian Drug and Food Regulatory Authority, Badan POM (BPOM), to start its registrational Phase III study in Indonesia of RECCE® 327 topical gel (R327G) in diabetic foot infections (DFIs). This was the final hurdle that needed to be overcome before study enrolment can proceed, which is expected to start before the end of 2024. Top-line data from the 300-patient double-blinded Phase III study (with 200 patients in the R327 arm and 100 on placebo) are anticipated in late 2025. If positive, we expect Recce would be able to launch R327G in South-East Asia in H2 CY26, potentially marking the company’s transition to a commercial stage.

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Dec 18

Daily Brief Financials: S&P/ASX 200, Edelweiss Financial Services, New World Development, Emerald Finance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Index Option Strategy -Combining Record Low Volatility with Buy-The-Dip
Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. (EDEL IN) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Emerald Finance Ltd- Forensic Analysis

EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Index Option Strategy -Combining Record Low Volatility with Buy-The-Dip

By Gaudenz Schneider

The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has declined two weeks in a row. Quantitative analysis suggests that a trend reversal could occur soon.
This Insight provides an option strategy based on the resistance and support levels identified in the quantitative Insight EQD | ASX 200 Presents a High-Probability Buy-The-Dip Opportunity
Option liquidity and volatility analysis, including skew, term structure and put/call ratios are provided and used in strategy design.

Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. (EDEL IN) – Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. is a financial services firm in India with a market cap of $1.2 billion USD
The company includes the largest private credit and private real assets fund manager in the country
Management plans to sell a strategic minority stake in the Edelweiss Alts business unit and IPO the Alts unit to distribute shares directly to shareholders, potentially creating value for investors as seen in a previous div-en-specie transaction with Nuvama

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, Vedanta Resources, Softbank Group, AAC Technologies
In the US, the December (preliminary) S&P manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 (49.5 e / 49.7 p), while the services PMI expanded to 58.5 (55.8 e / 56.1 p).
The composite PMI also rose to 56.6 (55.1 e / 54.9 p). Treasuries were little changed, ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST were flat at 4.25% and 4.40%, respectively.

Emerald Finance Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Emerald Finance (EMERALD IN) is a Chandigarh-based NBFC. Since receiving its NBFC license in 2015, Emerald has broadened its offerings to include personal loans, business loans, and Early Wage Access.
The Company focuses on retail and MSME lending and acts as a loan origination platform for over 40 financial institutions through its subsidiary, Eclat Net Advisors Private Limited.
Onto the forensics, there are unsecured loans to RPs, representing 15% of the networth, large amounts of cheques-in-hand reflected under Other loans and advances and incorrect calculation of EPS

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Dec 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): 16 Copper Takeover Targets to Follow (Tom Woolrych) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

16 Copper Takeover Targets to Follow (Tom Woolrych)
Ohayo Japan | Big Tech Gains
SEBI’s Warning on Unlisted Shares: A Deep Dive into Risks and Opportunities
Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective
US Banks – HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits
How Reliance’s Russian Oil Deal May Reshape India’s Energy Landscape?
Singapore Market Roundup (16-Dec-2024): Medical Tourism Boosts ASEAN Hospitals
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK
Episode 97: Accellerated Infrastructure – Marvell Analyst Day, Broadcomm Earnings – Infra!!
Valuing Software Startups in Europe and North America

16 Copper Takeover Targets to Follow (Tom Woolrych)

By Money of Mine

Tom Ulrich joins the discussion on undeveloped copper projects
Importance of high grades and contained copper in porphyry deposits
Exploration of North American companies, including NGX and Philo, with potential for high valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ohayo Japan | Big Tech Gains

By Mark Chadwick

The Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%) hit a record high, driven by Big Tech gains
SoftBank Group will invest $100 billion in the US over four years
MIXI has launched mixi2, a new invite-only social networking service restricted to users 18+

SEBI’s Warning on Unlisted Shares: A Deep Dive into Risks and Opportunities

By Nimish Maheshwari

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has issued a warning against unregulated platforms that facilitate trade in unlisted securities of public limited companies.
SEBI has stated that such platforms are operating in violation of the law and are not authorized to facilitate trading in unlisted securities.
SEBI has advised investors to exercise caution while dealing with such platforms and to ensure that they are dealing with regulated entities that are authorized to facilitate trading in securities

Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective

By Nimish Maheshwari

India Inc. leaders have been outperformers as compared to global peers on the back of strong ROE and EPS growth over the years.
India Inc has a higher % of companies with better RoE than the rest of the world.
Key takeaways for investors: Avoid macro noise, focus on fundamentals with peer comparison

US Banks – HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits

By Daniel Tabbush

US large banks are showing sharply expanding loans in recent weeks, in granular HFD
This comes as their higher cost Jumbo Time Deposits are now showing negative growth
There are positive implications for net interest income, NIM and net profit delta of large US banks

How Reliance’s Russian Oil Deal May Reshape India’s Energy Landscape?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Reliance Industries (RIL IN), is planning to ink a historic deal with Russia’s Rosneft, securing a staggering 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day for the next decade: Reuters
The geopolitical fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with sanctions imposed by Western nations, has created a unique opportunity for India to secure energy resources at a significant discount.
While the deal promises to enhance India’s energy security and fuel its economic engine, it also risks straining ties with Western partners and exposing Reliance to potential sanctions.

Singapore Market Roundup (16-Dec-2024): Medical Tourism Boosts ASEAN Hospitals

By Singapore Market Roundup

CGS International predicts significant growth in ASEAN hospitals due to medical tourism boosting the industry
DBS retains ‘buy’ rating and $3.85 target price for CapitaLand Investment after $200M Wingate deal
UOB Kay Hian sees Hong Leong Asia as undervalued with two growth engines, advising investors to consider the stock opportunity

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK

By Ying Pan

700 HK: <Honor of Kings> to Launch Winter Season Update with New Gameplay Features (+)
700 HK: WeChat Mini Programs MAU Reaches 949 Million, Up 3% YoY (+)
700 HK: Tencent Unveils New DNF-Based Game <Kazan> . (+)

Episode 97: Accellerated Infrastructure – Marvell Analyst Day, Broadcomm Earnings – Infra!!

By The Circuit

Marvell and Broadcom are focusing on accelerated infrastructure for data centers, with strong investments in custom silicon solutions for AI workloads
Marvell impresses with a clear vision and roadmap for the future of data centers, while Broadcom shows strong growth potential in AI with key customers
Broadcom’s strong networking capabilities and custom offerings position them as a major player in the AI market, with potential for further M&A activities in the future.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Valuing Software Startups in Europe and North America

Below we highlight some tips and takeaways from VRS Team’s engagement in valuation assignments with regard to SaaS startup companies in Europe and North America.
The order of presentation is random and by no means there is an aim to exhaust the particular subject via this note.
The startup company is important to fully demonstrate the following: A clear and transparent business model, in relation to what it offers to the customer, how it sells the product or service, and how it generates income.

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Dec 17

Daily Brief ECM: 2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia
2025 IPOs Pipeline (USA, Europe, and the Middle East)
Kioxia IPO Trading – Decent Demand for Decent Upside
Pre-IPO Herbs Generation Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia

In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia next year.
This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in Asia in 2025.
Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, LG Electronics India, Shein, Sony Financial Group, Didi Global, and Okada Manila.

2025 IPOs Pipeline (USA, Europe, and the Middle East)