In today’s briefing:
- De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors
- A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning
- An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2025
- US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline
- Playing With Fire
- ADNOC/Covestro: Offer Results Update
- SSI Weekly: OCI’s EBITDA Clarification, CURN Buyback, TIFS Deal, LTG Deadline, Grifols Trade
- Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?
- Capitan Silver Corp – Mining Monthly: November Edition
- VAALCO Energy, Inc.: A Busy Year Ahead
De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors
- De Grey Mining (DEG AU) entered a binding scheme with Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable.
- The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. Barrick Gold (GOLD US) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) are potential suitors.
A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning
- The EGM for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is expected to be held on 23 January 2025. Accordingly, the shareholder registry is expected to be closed around 19 – 23 December.
- By better analyzing the timeline of the M&A of SM Entertainment, we may be able to get better clues to Korea Zinc’s price movement in the next several weeks.
- Notice the double top share price formation of SM Entertainment in 2023 versus the potential double top formation of Korea Zinc in 2024. These trading formations look eerily similar.
An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2025
- In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in June 2025.
- These seven potential inclusion candidates are up on average 8.9% from end of Sept 2024 to 2 December 2024 versus KOSPI which is down 5.4% in the same period.
- The potential additions include IPOs in 2024 such as HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), Shift Up (462870 KS), and Sanil Electric (062040 KS).
US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline
- The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 582 for the week ending on 27/Nov, reporting a third consecutive weekly fall.
- For the week ending 22/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.2m bpd the week prior. US output inched close to its all-time high of 13.5m bpd.
- The number of active US oil rigs fell by two to 477, the lowest since July. Conversely, the US gas rig count rose by one to 100.
Playing With Fire
- Hello, Welcome to the third edition of the Mikro Kap Wathclist, a series in which I go deeper into unique opportunities from my watchlist that, IMO, are worth monitoring closely.
- This way, you can act decisively when the moment comes, rather than spending weeks on initial research.
- These kinds of stocks would probably be a part of my portfolio if I were older, more diversified, or both.
ADNOC/Covestro: Offer Results Update
- ADNOC International (XRG) secured a controlling 69.94% stake in Covestro after the initial acceptance period, surpassing the 50% plus one share threshold.
- Regulatory Approvals Pending: The transaction awaits merger control, foreign investment, and EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation clearances, with finalization expected in H2 2025 (usual timeline for deal in the chemical industry).
- Remaining shareholders can tender their shares during the additional acceptance period; squeeze-out is likely. Recommendation is tender.
SSI Weekly: OCI’s EBITDA Clarification, CURN Buyback, TIFS Deal, LTG Deadline, Grifols Trade
- OCI N.V.’s expected mid-cycle EBITDA for the European Nitrogen business is clarified at $150m, affecting valuation calculations.
- Currency Exchange International announced a new 5% share buyback authorization, with previous buyback pace remaining slow.
- Grifols’ potential reverse arbitrage trade involves long Class A shares, short Class B shares, amid merger considerations.
Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?
- Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs – putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.
- The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.
- The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I
Capitan Silver Corp – Mining Monthly: November Edition
- Following the election of Donald Trump, gold and precious metals fell sharply alongside the mining equities.
- Despite the shock drop, the metals began a reassuring rebound in the back half of the month.
- Mining equities performed negatively with the GDX down 6.7%, GDXJ down 7.4%, SIL down 6.0%, and COPX down 2.4%.
VAALCO Energy, Inc.: A Busy Year Ahead
- Vaalco’s asset portfolio combines a mix of long- and short- cycle growth opportunities in every country in which it operates.
- Management sequences the capital investment cycles to ensure the company commits capital to projects that have been sufficiently derisked to avoid overcommitting and with an eye to shortening the time from investment to production.
- Its budgeting process is anchored by the goal of supporting a sustainable dividend
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