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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: China Mobile, Flat Glass, Bestechnic Shanghai , Marathon Digital Holdings, NetEase , Cisco Systems, JFrog, Tower Semiconductor , BILL Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents
  • STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ All Share Semi Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
  • MARA Holdings: Will Its Off-grid Expansion & Energy Partnerships For Sustainable Bitcoin Mining Operations Work Out?
  • NetEase: Will Its eSports Integration & Expansion Help Establish NetEase As A Prominent Player In The Global Esports Arena?
  • Cisco Systems Just Smashed AI Order Expectations—Is Silicon One the Future of Cloud Infrastructure?
  • Quiddity STAR 50/100 Jun25 Results: 10 Changes; 9 Correctly Predicted; One Surprise
  • JFrog: Expanding ML & AI Opportunities in the Platform To Shape the Future!
  • Tower Semiconductor Is Pouring Millions Into SiPho & SiGe—Is a $2.7 Billion Revenue Target in Sight?
  • Can BILL Holdings’ Smart Pricing Strategy Skyrocket Its Revenue Next Year?


China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
  • Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
  • This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) back down nearly 3%. CATL 10% through still.
  • Sharp skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium <20% saw H underperform sharply. Those in the 40-100% AH Premium range saw H outperform. Quiddity Portfolio alpha strong.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ All Share Semi Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 changes for the STAR Chip Index, 8 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and 11 changes for the CSI All-Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index.
  • There are multiple stocks that will have flows from passive trackers across the three indices. Multiple stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers across the China universe.
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) will have passive inflows from STAR50 INDEX, CSI 500 Index and CSI A500 Index trackers and outflows from the STAR100 Index and CSI1000 Index trackers.

MARA Holdings: Will Its Off-grid Expansion & Energy Partnerships For Sustainable Bitcoin Mining Operations Work Out?

By Baptista Research

  • MARA Holdings recently held its first quarter 2025 earnings call, offering insights into both its current operations and future strategies.
  • The company faces a mixed landscape shaped by Bitcoin’s fluctuating value, which significantly impacts shareholder sentiment and the company’s stock performance.
  • Notably, MARA aligns with the view of Bitcoin as a macro hedge, comparable to gold, which is particularly relevant amid volatile market conditions.

NetEase: Will Its eSports Integration & Expansion Help Establish NetEase As A Prominent Player In The Global Esports Arena?

By Baptista Research

  • NetEase, during its 2025 first quarter financial results presentation, outlined its performance and future strategies across various segments.
  • The company reported an increase in total net revenue by 7.4% year-over-year, reaching RMB 28.8 billion, driven primarily by its gaming division, which witnessed a 12% increase in revenue.
  • Net revenue from online games was notably high, with a growth of 14% quarter-over-quarter and 15% year-over year, emphasizing the success of titles like “Where Winds Meet” and “Marvel Rivals.” Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Cisco Systems Just Smashed AI Order Expectations—Is Silicon One the Future of Cloud Infrastructure?

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems, Inc. exhibited robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal year 2025, surpassing revenue, margins, and earnings expectations.
  • The company reported total revenue of $14.1 billion, marking a substantial 11% year-over-year increase.
  • This growth was driven by significant expansion in product revenue, especially in areas such as networking, which saw an 8% increase, and security, which surged by 54%, primarily due to contributions from Splunk and SASE offerings.

Quiddity STAR 50/100 Jun25 Results: 10 Changes; 9 Correctly Predicted; One Surprise

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be one change for the STAR 50 index and four changes for the STAR 100 index.
  • We expect one-way flows of approximately US$848mn and US$192mn for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 index rebal events, respectively.

JFrog: Expanding ML & AI Opportunities in the Platform To Shape the Future!

By Baptista Research

  • JFrog’s Q1 2025 financial results reflect both accomplishments and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported total revenue of $122.4 million, up 22% year-over-year, driven significantly by strong cloud revenue which rose by 42% to $52.6 million.
  • This growth underscores JFrog’s strategic focus on cloud solutions and enterprise migrations toward its SaaS offering.

Tower Semiconductor Is Pouring Millions Into SiPho & SiGe—Is a $2.7 Billion Revenue Target in Sight?

By Baptista Research

  • Tower Semiconductor began 2025 with a first-quarter revenue of $358 million and a net profit of $40 million.
  • The company forecasts second-quarter revenue to hit a midpoint of $372 million and anticipates sequential revenue increases through the year, underscored by stronger acceleration in the second half as capacity investments are completed.
  • The overall semiconductor market has been marred by uncertainties, such as tariffs and policy changes, but Tower’s global manufacturing capabilities provide a strategic advantage, allowing flexibility in meeting customer demands.

Can BILL Holdings’ Smart Pricing Strategy Skyrocket Its Revenue Next Year?

By Baptista Research

  • BILL Holdings, Inc., a platform that automates financial operations for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), reported its third quarter fiscal 2025 results, demonstrating a blend of strengths and challenges.
  • The company experienced a robust 14% year-over-year growth in core revenue, achieving a notable non-GAAP operating income margin of 15%, which exceeded prior expectations due to improved business efficiency.
  • Additionally, free cash flow increased 44% year-over-year, reflecting strong cash-generating capabilities.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies , Avic Shenyang Aircraft, NIFTY Index, Makino Milling Machine Co, Lyft , China Airlines, Trex Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows
  • Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN
  • Weekly Deals Digest (01 Jun) – Makino, SBI Sumishin, Taiyo, ENN Energy, HKBN, Meilan, Foshan Haitian
  • Lyft Inc.: Building a Fleet for the Future—Autonomous, Affordable, & Unstoppable!
  • Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | April Data Shows Slowing Demand, Low (And Falling) Capacity Utilization
  • Trex Company: An Analysis Of Its Brand Equity


STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for China’s SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 4 ADDs/DELs for SSE 50 and 18 ADDs/DELs for SSE 180.
  • The SSE 50 and SSE 180 index rebal events could trigger US$1.3bn and US$210mn in one-way flows, respectively.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

By John Ley

  • Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
  • Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. 
  • Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

By David Blennerhassett

  • MBK has made a legally binding bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.
  • Given the share price decline, Nufarm (NUF AU)‘s board is under pressure to do “something”. Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.
  • Dic Corp (4631 JP) is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.

Weekly Deals Digest (01 Jun) – Makino, SBI Sumishin, Taiyo, ENN Energy, HKBN, Meilan, Foshan Haitian

By Arun George


Lyft Inc.: Building a Fleet for the Future—Autonomous, Affordable, & Unstoppable!

By Baptista Research

  • Lyft Inc.’s performance in the first quarter of 2025 reflects a significant blend of strengths and ongoing challenges.
  • The company’s marked growth in various financial metrics, including gross bookings, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, underscores a robust operational quarter.
  • The strength is particularly evident as the company boasts a record in quarterly figures for active riders, rides, and driver hours.

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | April Data Shows Slowing Demand, Low (And Falling) Capacity Utilization

By Daniel Hellberg

  • The Taiwanese air cargo specialists CAL and EVA reported slowing growth, lower LF in April
  • Despite a few outliers, tonnage growth and utilization at other Asian carriers also weaker
  • All signs point to sluggish US demand, which is unlikely to recover any time soon

Trex Company: An Analysis Of Its Brand Equity

By Baptista Research

  • Trex Company, Inc. recently shared its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting both strengths and challenges in its performance.
  • The company’s net sales amounted to $340 million, reflecting a 9% decrease from the previous year where sales reached $374 million, but exceeded expectations due to robust demand for its premium products.
  • Despite a slow start due to adverse weather conditions early in the year, demand surged in March.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Suzhou Kematek, Petroleo Brasileiro , Valvoline and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25 Results: 11 ADDs/DELs; Couple of Surprises
  • Petrobras: Expansion & Optimization of Key Oil Basins to Maintain Resilience Against Fluctuating Global Oil Prices!
  • Valvoline Inc.: Igniting Growth With Aggressive Franchise Expansion & Market Penetration!


Quiddity CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25 Results: 11 ADDs/DELs; Couple of Surprises

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 4 ADDs and 7 DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index.
  • We estimate one-way flows of approximately US$84mn in the June 2025 index rebal event.

Petrobras: Expansion & Optimization of Key Oil Basins to Maintain Resilience Against Fluctuating Global Oil Prices!

By Baptista Research

  • Petrobras, short for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., recently released its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, set against a challenging backdrop of declining global oil prices.
  • A key aspect of the company’s strategy involves adapting to these external pressures while maintaining financial sustainability and shareholder returns.
  • From the results, Petrobras posted a net income of $6 billion for the quarter, a significant increase from $4 billion in the previous quarter.

Valvoline Inc.: Igniting Growth With Aggressive Franchise Expansion & Market Penetration!

By Baptista Research

  • Valvoline reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, providing a mixed picture of its current standing and projections.
  • The company experienced an 11% increase in system-wide sales to $826 million, driven by a 5.8% same-store sales growth and an expansion of its store network by 8% over the previous year.
  • Total net sales saw an increase of 11% to $403 million, adjusted for refranchising impacts.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Aurora World, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Small Cap Gem #35: Aurora World
  • Kospi Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Index Surges as Call Demand Drives Vol Higher


Korea Small Cap Gem #35: Aurora World

By Douglas Kim

  • Aurora World is best known for its plush toys (Palm Pals and YooHoo & Friends). It is increasingly trying to leverage its toy character brands to expand into digital contents. 
  • What makes Aurora World so interesting is its excellent fundamentals and deeply discounted valuations relative to The Pinkfong Company (IPO in 2H25) and SAMG Entertainment.
  • Aurora World generated more than 80% of its sales in overseas markets including the United States, U.K., and Hong Kong. 

Kospi Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Index Surges as Call Demand Drives Vol Higher

By John Ley

  • Kospi rallied strongly this week, reaching 8-month highs and showing strong relative strength as other indices stalled out.
  • Volatility firmed up across the board amid sharp price action and strong demand for Calls.
  • Volatility dynamics this week differed notably from recent directional moves.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Winner Medical, Shanghai Haohai Biological Tec, Davita Healthcare Partners, Natera Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact
  • Quiddity CSI Medical Jun25 Results: 6 ADDs/DELs Confirmed; US$286mn One-Way Flows
  • DaVita Incorporated: Phosphate Binders Integration into Dialysis Benefit As A Pivotal Growth Lever!
  • Natera Inc.: Is The Recent Growth in Signatera Volumes Here To Stay?


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 30 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
  • There are 6 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-2.4x ADV in the adds and passive selling of between 1-4.7x ADV in the deletes.
  • There will be capping inflows for Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH) and capping outflows for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH)

Quiddity CSI Medical Jun25 Results: 6 ADDs/DELs Confirmed; US$286mn One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for the CSI Medical Service Index were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 6 changes for the CSI Medical Service index.
  • We expect one-way flows of approximately US$286mn in the June 2025 index rebal event.

DaVita Incorporated: Phosphate Binders Integration into Dialysis Benefit As A Pivotal Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • DaVita Inc. (DVA) has recently disclosed its financial results for the first quarter of 2025.
  • The company faced significant challenges, most notably a cybersecurity incident, which disrupted operations.
  • Despite these setbacks, DaVita succeeded in maintaining its patient care levels and mitigating the impact on its core services.

Natera Inc.: Is The Recent Growth in Signatera Volumes Here To Stay?

By Baptista Research

  • Natera, Inc. reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting significant revenue growth and operational achievements, which present a mixed yet promising outlook for potential investors.
  • The company reported a notable increase in revenue to $502 million, up 37% from $368 million in the same period last year.
  • This growth was driven by high demand across multiple product lines, particularly within women’s health and the oncology segment, where Signatera clinical volumes grew by 52% year-on-year.

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Daily Brief Financials: MS&AD Insurance, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, SBI Sumishin Net Bank , Northeast Securities, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, Rocket Cos , Nikkei 225, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, DLocal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jun25), Minor Updates
  • Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Jun25 Results: 114 Changes; 88% Hit Rate; ~US$5bn One-Way
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara
  • CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou
  • TLT – From Hedge to Risk Asset: Behavior Continues to Shift
  • Rocket and Redfin Merger – US Index Implications
  • Nikkei Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Back to Pre-Tariff Levels, But Uncertainty Still Looms
  • Kospi Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Index Surges as Call Demand Drives Vol Higher
  • DLocal Transforms Regional Playbook With Adaptive Strategy in Argentina


[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jun25), Minor Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 286 new CGRs filed since 1-May-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
  • The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Mgmt Conscious updates came this month. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow. ‘Going Private’ policy is under public comment now.

Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Jun25 Results: 114 Changes; 88% Hit Rate; ~US$5bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 7 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.
  • The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$1.7bn and US$3.2bn in one-way flows, respectively.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

By David Blennerhassett


CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
  • Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be added to the index while Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH) will be deleted.
  • There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.

TLT – From Hedge to Risk Asset: Behavior Continues to Shift

By John Ley

  • TLT is showing signs of shifting behavior, no longer acting like a classic flight-to-quality asset.
  • One-Month implied vol sits above average, though not at extreme levels.
  • The evolving vol structure suggests caution for those expecting traditional bond market flight to quality behavior.

Rocket and Redfin Merger – US Index Implications

By Harry Kalfas

  • Rocket Cos (RKT US) to acquire Redfin Corp (RDFN US) in an all-stock deal valued at $1.75B.
  • Transaction includes a 0.7926 share exchange ratio and special $0.80 per share dividend.
  • The acquisition is expected to impact a major US index on an intra-quarter basis.

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Back to Pre-Tariff Levels, But Uncertainty Still Looms

By John Ley

  • Historic volatility has collapsed on the Nikkei, normalizing at a far quicker pace than the volatility episode last August.
  • Global uncertainty remains unresolved, casting a shadow over recent equity strength.
  • This week’s rally came without FX tailwinds, underscoring a potentially fragile move.

Kospi Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Index Surges as Call Demand Drives Vol Higher

By John Ley

  • Kospi rallied strongly this week, reaching 8-month highs and showing strong relative strength as other indices stalled out.
  • Volatility firmed up across the board amid sharp price action and strong demand for Calls.
  • Volatility dynamics this week differed notably from recent directional moves.

DLocal Transforms Regional Playbook With Adaptive Strategy in Argentina

By Baptista Research

  • dLocal delivered a first-quarter 2025 result that showcased both strong financial performance and ongoing strategic advancements, accompanied by notable business developments and challenges.
  • The total payment volume (TPV) reached $8.1 billion, marking a significant 53% growth year-over-year, which further increases to 72% in constant currency terms.
  • This growth was led by robust performance in cross-border payments, particularly in regions like Chile, Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey, and Brazil across sectors including remittances, commerce, and financial services.

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Daily Brief United States: Marathon Digital Holdings, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, Cisco Systems, Rocket Cos , Expedia Group, Inc., JFrog, Dynatrace , DLocal, Installed Building Products, Davita Healthcare Partners and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • MARA Holdings: Will Its Off-grid Expansion & Energy Partnerships For Sustainable Bitcoin Mining Operations Work Out?
  • TLT – From Hedge to Risk Asset: Behavior Continues to Shift
  • Cisco Systems Just Smashed AI Order Expectations—Is Silicon One the Future of Cloud Infrastructure?
  • Rocket and Redfin Merger – US Index Implications
  • Expedia Group: Diverse B2B Growth Opportunities As a Significant Growth Lever!
  • JFrog: Expanding ML & AI Opportunities in the Platform To Shape the Future!
  • Dynatrace Inc.: Expansion in Logs & Digital Experience Monitoring to Enhance Competitiveness In The Observability Landscape!
  • DLocal Transforms Regional Playbook With Adaptive Strategy in Argentina
  • Installed Building Products (IBP): Its Efforts Towards Expansion in Heavy Commercial Business & Other Major Drivers!
  • DaVita Incorporated: Phosphate Binders Integration into Dialysis Benefit As A Pivotal Growth Lever!


MARA Holdings: Will Its Off-grid Expansion & Energy Partnerships For Sustainable Bitcoin Mining Operations Work Out?

By Baptista Research

  • MARA Holdings recently held its first quarter 2025 earnings call, offering insights into both its current operations and future strategies.
  • The company faces a mixed landscape shaped by Bitcoin’s fluctuating value, which significantly impacts shareholder sentiment and the company’s stock performance.
  • Notably, MARA aligns with the view of Bitcoin as a macro hedge, comparable to gold, which is particularly relevant amid volatile market conditions.

TLT – From Hedge to Risk Asset: Behavior Continues to Shift

By John Ley

  • TLT is showing signs of shifting behavior, no longer acting like a classic flight-to-quality asset.
  • One-Month implied vol sits above average, though not at extreme levels.
  • The evolving vol structure suggests caution for those expecting traditional bond market flight to quality behavior.

Cisco Systems Just Smashed AI Order Expectations—Is Silicon One the Future of Cloud Infrastructure?

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems, Inc. exhibited robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal year 2025, surpassing revenue, margins, and earnings expectations.
  • The company reported total revenue of $14.1 billion, marking a substantial 11% year-over-year increase.
  • This growth was driven by significant expansion in product revenue, especially in areas such as networking, which saw an 8% increase, and security, which surged by 54%, primarily due to contributions from Splunk and SASE offerings.

Rocket and Redfin Merger – US Index Implications

By Harry Kalfas

  • Rocket Cos (RKT US) to acquire Redfin Corp (RDFN US) in an all-stock deal valued at $1.75B.
  • Transaction includes a 0.7926 share exchange ratio and special $0.80 per share dividend.
  • The acquisition is expected to impact a major US index on an intra-quarter basis.

Expedia Group: Diverse B2B Growth Opportunities As a Significant Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group’s recent financial results for Q1 2025 present a complex blend of performance metrics that reveal both strengths and areas of concern.
  • The company’s gross bookings climbed by 4% to $31.5 billion, while revenue increased by 3% to $3 billion, aligning with expectations but reflecting a modest growth trajectory.
  • The growth has been hampered by weaker travel demand within and into the U.S., despite strong performances elsewhere.

JFrog: Expanding ML & AI Opportunities in the Platform To Shape the Future!

By Baptista Research

  • JFrog’s Q1 2025 financial results reflect both accomplishments and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported total revenue of $122.4 million, up 22% year-over-year, driven significantly by strong cloud revenue which rose by 42% to $52.6 million.
  • This growth underscores JFrog’s strategic focus on cloud solutions and enterprise migrations toward its SaaS offering.

Dynatrace Inc.: Expansion in Logs & Digital Experience Monitoring to Enhance Competitiveness In The Observability Landscape!

By Baptista Research

  • Dynatrace reported a robust performance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant accomplishments across various key metrics.
  • The company’s subscription revenue experienced a 20% increase, reaching $1.62 billion, while the Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stood at $1.73 billion, marking a 17% growth.
  • The non-GAAP operating margin expanded by over 100 basis points, and the pre-tax free cash flow margin improved by roughly 250 basis points, underlining the company’s effective balance between growth and profitability.

DLocal Transforms Regional Playbook With Adaptive Strategy in Argentina

By Baptista Research

  • dLocal delivered a first-quarter 2025 result that showcased both strong financial performance and ongoing strategic advancements, accompanied by notable business developments and challenges.
  • The total payment volume (TPV) reached $8.1 billion, marking a significant 53% growth year-over-year, which further increases to 72% in constant currency terms.
  • This growth was led by robust performance in cross-border payments, particularly in regions like Chile, Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey, and Brazil across sectors including remittances, commerce, and financial services.

Installed Building Products (IBP): Its Efforts Towards Expansion in Heavy Commercial Business & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Installed Building Products (IBP) reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, reflecting mixed performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape affecting the construction industry.
  • The company’s performance was impacted by housing market dynamics and adverse weather conditions, although strategic initiatives and a strong operating framework provided some balance.
  • On the positive side, IBP maintained a solid financial base with significant cash flow, highlighting its capacity for growth via acquisitions.

DaVita Incorporated: Phosphate Binders Integration into Dialysis Benefit As A Pivotal Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • DaVita Inc. (DVA) has recently disclosed its financial results for the first quarter of 2025.
  • The company faced significant challenges, most notably a cybersecurity incident, which disrupted operations.
  • Despite these setbacks, DaVita succeeded in maintaining its patient care levels and mitigating the impact on its core services.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Aurora World, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A), Expedia Group, Inc., Installed Building Products, Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc, Tapestry Inc, US Foods Holding Corp, Crocs Inc, Great Wall Motor and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Small Cap Gem #35: Aurora World
  • CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes
  • Expedia Group: Diverse B2B Growth Opportunities As a Significant Growth Lever!
  • Installed Building Products (IBP): Its Efforts Towards Expansion in Heavy Commercial Business & Other Major Drivers!
  • Nexstar Media Group’s Bold Play on Political Ads & Digital Power Could Shock the Industry; What Lies Ahead?
  • Tapestry Inc.: An Insight Into its Direct-to-Consumer Model
  • US Foods Holding Corp.: A Tale of Health Care & Hospitality Sector Expansion!
  • Crocs Inc. Accelerates Global Expansion With Aggressive Market Penetration in China
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 May 2025); Volumes OK, Big Net Buying on SOEs/Financials


Korea Small Cap Gem #35: Aurora World

By Douglas Kim

  • Aurora World is best known for its plush toys (Palm Pals and YooHoo & Friends). It is increasingly trying to leverage its toy character brands to expand into digital contents. 
  • What makes Aurora World so interesting is its excellent fundamentals and deeply discounted valuations relative to The Pinkfong Company (IPO in 2H25) and SAMG Entertainment.
  • Aurora World generated more than 80% of its sales in overseas markets including the United States, U.K., and Hong Kong. 

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June. There are changes driven by changes to the sector classification for stocks.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.2-0.65x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.15-1.75x ADV in the deletes.
  • The deletes have outperformed the adds over the last few months and some of that could dissipate over the next couple of weeks.

Expedia Group: Diverse B2B Growth Opportunities As a Significant Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group’s recent financial results for Q1 2025 present a complex blend of performance metrics that reveal both strengths and areas of concern.
  • The company’s gross bookings climbed by 4% to $31.5 billion, while revenue increased by 3% to $3 billion, aligning with expectations but reflecting a modest growth trajectory.
  • The growth has been hampered by weaker travel demand within and into the U.S., despite strong performances elsewhere.

Installed Building Products (IBP): Its Efforts Towards Expansion in Heavy Commercial Business & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Installed Building Products (IBP) reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, reflecting mixed performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape affecting the construction industry.
  • The company’s performance was impacted by housing market dynamics and adverse weather conditions, although strategic initiatives and a strong operating framework provided some balance.
  • On the positive side, IBP maintained a solid financial base with significant cash flow, highlighting its capacity for growth via acquisitions.

Nexstar Media Group’s Bold Play on Political Ads & Digital Power Could Shock the Industry; What Lies Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • Nexstar Media Group, a significant player in the broadcast television industry, delivered record financial results in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported $5.4 billion in total net revenue for the year, marking the highest in its 28-year history.
  • This performance was primarily driven by a strong political advertising cycle and growth in distribution revenue, alongside the company’s strategic positioning in nearly 85% of competitive election markets.

Tapestry Inc.: An Insight Into its Direct-to-Consumer Model

By Baptista Research

  • Tapestry, Inc. has recently released its third-quarter results, which exceeded market expectations, highlighting the company’s strong positioning and operational momentum across its brands.
  • The quarter saw accelerated revenue growth of 8% on a constant currency basis, driven primarily by the performance of its flagship brand, Coach, which achieved a 15% revenue increase.
  • Geographic performance was varied, with Europe seeing a 35% increase, substantial gains in the Asia-Pacific region, and steady growth in North America.

US Foods Holding Corp.: A Tale of Health Care & Hospitality Sector Expansion!

By Baptista Research

  • US Foods Holding Corp.’s latest earnings report for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 presents a mixed yet cautiously optimistic outlook.
  • The company reported strong profitability, with adjusted EBITDA growing more than 9% and adjusted diluted EPS increasing by 26%.
  • Notably, this performance was achieved despite adverse weather conditions and an overall challenging operating environment, highlighting the company’s effective execution of its strategic initiatives.

Crocs Inc. Accelerates Global Expansion With Aggressive Market Penetration in China

By Baptista Research

  • Crocs, Inc. reported a relatively stable first quarter of 2025 despite facing a volatile macroeconomic environment, mainly due to evolving global trade policies.
  • The company’s total revenues grew by 1% to $937 million, exceeding their guidance of a potential 1.5% decline.
  • This growth was driven by the Crocs brand, which saw revenues increase by 4% to $762 million.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 May 2025); Volumes OK, Big Net Buying on SOEs/Financials

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below US$12bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly US$700mm a day, which was decent.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20. Again.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor  and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels


Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

By John Ley

  • Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
  • Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. 
  • Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. 

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Daily Brief China: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies , Winner Medical, Avic Shenyang Aircraft, China Mobile, Flat Glass, Bestechnic Shanghai , Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Northeast Securities, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A), Suzhou Kematek and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows
  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact
  • Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents
  • STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ All Share Semi Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
  • Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Jun25 Results: 114 Changes; 88% Hit Rate; ~US$5bn One-Way
  • CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou
  • CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes
  • Quiddity CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25 Results: 11 ADDs/DELs; Couple of Surprises


STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows

By Brian Freitas


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 30 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
  • There are 6 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-2.4x ADV in the adds and passive selling of between 1-4.7x ADV in the deletes.
  • There will be capping inflows for Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH) and capping outflows for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH)

Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for China’s SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 4 ADDs/DELs for SSE 50 and 18 ADDs/DELs for SSE 180.
  • The SSE 50 and SSE 180 index rebal events could trigger US$1.3bn and US$210mn in one-way flows, respectively.

China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
  • Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
  • This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) back down nearly 3%. CATL 10% through still.
  • Sharp skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium <20% saw H underperform sharply. Those in the 40-100% AH Premium range saw H outperform. Quiddity Portfolio alpha strong.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ All Share Semi Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 changes for the STAR Chip Index, 8 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and 11 changes for the CSI All-Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index.
  • There are multiple stocks that will have flows from passive trackers across the three indices. Multiple stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers across the China universe.
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) will have passive inflows from STAR50 INDEX, CSI 500 Index and CSI A500 Index trackers and outflows from the STAR100 Index and CSI1000 Index trackers.

Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Jun25 Results: 114 Changes; 88% Hit Rate; ~US$5bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 7 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.
  • The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$1.7bn and US$3.2bn in one-way flows, respectively.

CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
  • Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be added to the index while Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH) will be deleted.
  • There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June. There are changes driven by changes to the sector classification for stocks.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.2-0.65x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.15-1.75x ADV in the deletes.
  • The deletes have outperformed the adds over the last few months and some of that could dissipate over the next couple of weeks.

Quiddity CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25 Results: 11 ADDs/DELs; Couple of Surprises

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 4 ADDs and 7 DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index.
  • We estimate one-way flows of approximately US$84mn in the June 2025 index rebal event.

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