China

• WeRide (WRD US) plans to raise around US$350m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
• The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 19th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
• In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.

• Cig Shanghai (603083 CH), telecommunications equipment company, is looking to raise up to US$594m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a provider of critical infrastructure components for the development of AI.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• Pony AI (PONY US) is a Chinese robotaxi operator and self-driving technology company. It is seeking to raise US$1 billion through a dual primary HKEx listing.     
• It was listed on the Nasdaq on 27 November 2024, raising US$260 million at US$13.00 per ADS. Since listing, the shares are up 48%.
• The investment case centres around Pony’s accelerating revenue growth and progress towards positive unit economics. However, the path to profitability is long-dated and the valuation is full. 

• Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI).
• Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.
• Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.

• First Pacific Co (142 HK)‘s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.
• The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. 
• First Pac’s NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.

• Pony AI , a leading autonomous mbility technology player based in China, proposes to issue no more than 102 million ordinary shares for a secondary listing on the HKEX.
• From a commercialization standpoint, Pony is transitioning from pilot programs to scaled operations – 2025 could be a pivotal year of mass production for its 7th generation (Gen-7) Robotaxis.
• Pony is also accelerating its global expansion – it recently announced a partnership with Stellantis, to develop Level 4 autonomous vehicles for the European market.

• China’s aggressive crude stockpiling through 2025 has quietly reduced global supply, cushioning oil prices against a surplus-driven downturn amid OPEC+ supply hikes.
• By absorbing excess barrels when prices fall and easing purchases when they rise, China’s flexible buying strategy has emerged as a stabilising force in global oil markets.
• With inventories estimated between 1.4 and 2 billion barrels, China’s future buying pace will hinge on price trends, geopolitical pressures, and internal reserve targets.

• Pop Mart is a dominant force in the rapidly growing global art toy market, driven by a powerful IP-led business model that fosters a loyal collector base and high-margin revenue streams.
• Aggressive global expansion is the primary growth vector, with overseas revenue surging and plans to significantly increase its international store footprint, aiming for overseas markets to represent 50% of total sales.
• Exceptional financial performance, characterized by triple-digit revenue and net income growth, robust margins, and strong operating cash flow, underpins a premium valuation relative to peers.

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• The market consensus is too conservative for Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. (1138 HK). A better-than-expected 3Q25 result is likely to prompt an earnings upgrade.   
• Spot VLCC rate is 32.7% higher than 1H25 so far for 2H25, and average bunker price has declined 6.2% in 3Q25, both implying improved earnings prospects.
• With an average ROE for FY25-27 at over 12%, its 1.05x P/B is not stretched. During FY20-23, the average ROE of 1.6% has supported a P/B ratio of 0.56x. 

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. Its first set of lockups expired in April 2025. The next one is due soon.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• Pony AI (PONY US) plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
• The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 17th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
• In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.

• The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 245% YoY in 3Q25.
• Within China revenue, the growth rates of both online and offline accelerated in 3Q25.
• The company highlighted that revenues surged significantly in America and Europe.

• Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), the world’s third-largest construction machinery company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.6 billion.
• I discussed the H Share listing in SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
• The proposed AH discount of 17.2% to 13.1% (based on the 17 October A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.

• The increase in the stock price over the last 3 months could result in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) being added to a global index in November.
• There is a fair amount to buy in the stock and cumulative excess volume has picked up since July. Short interest has dropped over the same period.
• The recent drop in the stock price provides a better entry point for a short-term trade as positioning builds up ahead of the potential passive buying.

• Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.
• IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.
• There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.

• We met with the management of Dream International (1126 HK) in Hong Kong. The company is riding a hectic phase with its Vietnam operations running at full capacity.
• Management is evaluating capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam for plastic and plush toy production serving China, targeting an aggregate capacity increase of approximately 20–30% to meet demand.
• The stock has pulled back and trades at 8.9x PE, 5.1 EV-EBITDA, with a 6.2% dividend yield and 21% of the market capitalization in cash, and 10 Yr-Avg ROCE ~20%. 

• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) (CRB) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its PE investor is set to expire soon.
• China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• OOIL is a core subsidiary of the state-owned COSCO SHIPPING, operating as a key entity within the world’s fourth-largest container shipping group, which provides significant operational and financial backing.
• The container shipping industry is facing a challenging outlook with significant new vessel capacity entering the market, which is expected to outpace demand growth through 2026, potentially pressuring freight rates and profitability.
• Despite the cyclical downturn from the post-pandemic peak, the company maintains a strong balance sheet with a high net cash position, supporting a robust dividend payout and providing resilience against market volatility.

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• We met with Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) in our recent trip to Hong Kong. Retail sales have shown signs of recovery recently in HK in August/September. 
• Unfortunately, the company has not yet seen its sales in positive territory, and it may be necessary to wait for the retail sales trend post-results in late November before concluding. 
• Factoring in the cost cuts guided by management in their post-results call, the stock trades at 9.0x PE FY26e with an 11% dividend yield (implying -9%/-8% YoY revenue/profit growth). 

• Herb Standard adopts light-asset model, which helps to bring about high gross margin.However, gross margin showed a declining trend due to increase in promotional discounts to capture more market share
• The total sales value of products returned was up 317% YoY in FY2025 due to unsold products after promotional events. There’re concerns whether the current strong growth momentum is sustainable
• Our forecast is revenue to increase 20%/15%/12% and net profit to increase 14% /11.7%/8.8% in FY2026/FY2027/FY2028, respectively.Due to higher growth/profit margin, valuation of Herb Standard could be higher than peer

• Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) aims to raise around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.
• Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
• We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

• After a huge upward move earlier this year, Remegen (9995 HK)‘s stock has started to drop as the sector starts to give back some of its gains. 
• Despite the recent correction, Remegen (9995 HK) should be added to a global index in November and that could help the stock outperform its peers.
• There appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.

• Sany Heavy Industry is getting ready for an IPO listing in Hong Kong. It is targeting up to HK$12.36 billion (US$1.59 billion) by offering 580.42 million shares in this listing.
• The IPO price of Sany Heavy is set between HK$20.30 and HK$21.30, with the final price to be determined on Friday.
• Sany Heavy is the largest construction machinery manufacturer in China and third largest globally. Its main products include excavators, concrete equipment, hoisting and piling machines, and road construction equipment. 

• Zijin Gold showed strong growth momentum in 25Q1-Q3, mainly driven by high gold prices and the two major acquisitions of the Ghana Akyem Gold Mine and Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine.
• Based on 25Q1-Q3 results, we updated our forecast of Zijin Gold, with net profit to reach US$1.5 billion/US$2.3 billion/US$3.5 billion in 2025/2026/2027, respectively.Theoretically speaking, valuation still has positive upside potential.
• However, our greatest concern is not the fundamental factors but the selling caused by liquidity crisis, which may lead to a synchronous correction of Zijin when the global market declines.

• Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)‘s IPO price range is set at HK$20.3-21.3, aiming at raising HK$11.9bn based on the mid-point IPO price.
• Key strengths are excellent growth potential globally, a leading market position, excellent R&D capability, and a solid financial track record.
• Sany Heavy’s fair valuation is a 5-10% discount to its A-share, in our view, implying an H-share price of HK$22.06-23.29, leaving limited upside from the IPO level.

• JST Group (6687 HK) raised around US$270m in its HK IPO.
• It is China’s largest and most popular e-commerce SaaS ERP provider.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• BYD is still the largest sedan maker in China, but its deliveries began to decline.
• Geely is the second largest car maker, but its deliveries surged dramatically.
• We believe Geely is the most promising company when the sedan market gets concentrated.

• Bama Tea (BAMA HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$368M. The company plans to sell 9M shares at HK$45-$50 per share.
• Bama Tea is a provider of tea leaf products in China, covering all six major types of tea leaves in China and non-tea-leaf products such as tea-ware and tea snacks.
• Amidst the highly fragmented tea consumption market Bama Tea relies on a volume play model with its branded offerings. We would recommend the investors to subscribe to the issue.

• Binhui, a China-based clinical-stage biopharma company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. Huatai, CMB, and BOCI are the joint sponsors.
• In this note, we look at the company’s core product, BS001, and key products BS006 and BR003.
• We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

• A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
• Between the US Stocks we track, all seems to have room to rally, short-term, and Amazon (AMZN US) is actually oversold (buy opportunity). 
• The Asian Stocks we track instead show a less homogeneous picture, but several Asian stocks are incredibly overbought. Same as Gold. 

• Earnings momentum accelerating driven by gold volume +20% and mine margin expansion to 60.6%, supported by disciplined cost control and strong operating cash flow.
• Copper–gold dual exposure provides structural upside with spot torque to Cu ~US$10,800/t and Au ~US$4,200/oz, reinforcing earnings visibility into FY26–27.
• Zijin Gold spin-off unlocks value via clean asset separation, improved capital efficiency, and SOTP rerating potential to HK$41–42/sh under spot scenario.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 

• Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
• There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
• Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

• Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1.5 billion.
• The A Shares were listed on 15 June 2016. In May 2021 and June 2022, Seres conducted private placements to raise RMB2,567.9 million and RMB7,058.6 million, respectively.
• The investment case rests on solid NEV performance, improving margin profile and strong cash generation.

• Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September 
• Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
• Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses

• Regulation steady, not softer; policy silence reaffirms the 24% cap as industry standard, with industry participants electing to comply with immediate effect.
• Asset stress rising; delinquencies peak as low-tier borrowers struggle, but QFIN’s disciplined underwriting and data scale set the stage for recovery in 2026e.
• Leadership and capital strength, market-leading balance sheet and strong commitment to shareholder returns underpin confidence through the transition phase.

• Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) granted Roche an exclusive worldwide license to (excluding the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) to develop, manufacture and commercialize HS-20110.
• HS-20110 is an investigational CDH17-targeting ADC currently being developed for the treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC) and other tumors, with global Phase I trial underway in China and the US.
• CDH17 targeted ADCs development (about 31 drug development projects ongoing) scene obviously seems crowded, but Hansoh’s strong execution with Roche’s global prowess will surely give it an edge.

• The new payload story/ADC-engineering platforms need to be verified by big licensing-out deals. If verification is successful, MNCs will pay high price.However, if verification fails, BlissBio’s pipeline would be “ignored”.
• BlissBio entered into a wind-down agreement with Eisai for BB-1701.In our view, MNC’s interest in BB-1701 is decreasing.The possibility of reaching big BD deal on BB-1712/BB-1705 is also not high.
• The investment logic of biotech has changed and high valuation is driven by big licensing-out deals. From this perspective, we think valuation of BlissBio should be lower than peers.

• Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) is trading tight  – perhaps too tight – to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.
• Be long Welcia Holdings (3141 JP). Be long Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP). Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.
• Richard Li’s HKT Ltd (6823 HK) is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks. 

• Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.
• Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.
• We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) and Genting Malaysia (GENM MK).
• Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Iress Ltd (IRE AU), and Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK).

• The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved – potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.
• The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.
• Due to the concerns on Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)’s business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.

• Deepexi Technology is looking to raise US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Deepexi Tech has demonstrated strong topline growth, with declines in average order value being offset by growth in customers. Despite growth in the topline, the company still remains deeply unprofitable. 
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) has began a small correction. Our model has identified the current trend pattern as bearish. The pullback could reach the 4.3k/4.1k support zone.
• These corrections can last up to 4 weeks, but usually they resolve after 2-3 weeks (the index has already closed 1 week down, so there could be 1-2 more weeks).
• According to our model, the key support area is 4300: if the index breaks that support, it can fall quickly to 4100 or 4000. Read detailed tactical analysis in the insight.

• The EU plans to impose 25–50% duties on Chinese steel to protect domestic producers from cheap imports and high decarbonisation costs.
• Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach 120 million tons, intensifying global overcapacity, pressuring margins, and prompting protectionist responses worldwide.
• EU tariffs on Chinese steel are unlikely to materially impact overall exports but function as strategic leverage, potentially reshaping flows and future negotiations.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Longfor Group, Genting Berhad
• The UST curve bull steepened meaningfully yesterday, on haven flows and Fed-easing expectations after credit concerns hit two US regional banks. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 7 bps to 3.43%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 3.98%.
• Equities and risk assets (e.g. bitcoin) slumped following credit fears in the economy, while gold soared above USD 4.3 k/oz. The S&P 500 decreased 0.6% to 6,629, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5% to 22,563.

• Iron ore futures recorded a weekly loss as renewed trade tensions and weak mill margins overshadowed a brief post-holiday demand recovery.
• Managed money participants increased their net long positions, reflecting continued confidence in the bullish outlook.
• Demand for higher-grade ore remains subdued as weak mill margins persist, keeping the 65%-62% spread under sustained downward pressure in the near term.

• First it was the Li family’s, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
• Now the U.S.’s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” – i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) – from the US telecommunication network.
• The FCC order cites HKT’s affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT’s parent.  A stake it acquired twenty years ago.

• Fibocom Wireless (300638 CH) is looking to raise up to US$380m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It was founded in Nov 1999, and is a leading wireless communication module provider. The firm’s module products include i) data transmission modules, ii) smart modules, and iii) AI modules.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK)  is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by JPM, UBS and CITIC.
• TOP TOY International Group is China’s largest and fastest-growing pop toy collection brand.
• The company achieved a GMV of RMB2.4 billion in mainland China in 2024, securing its rank as the largest pop toy collection brand in the country by this metric.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the HSI Index.
• Highlights: Recent market turbulence moderately lifted implied volatility for many stocks, but not to extreme levels. The approaching earnings season impacts October and November implied volatility.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs
• The UST curve twisted slightly flatter yesterday, largely undoing Tuesday’s steepening. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.50%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was stable at 4.03%. Equities ended higher, despite choppy price action during the day. The S&P 500 increased 0.4% to 6,671, and the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 22,670.
• The Fed Beige Book stated that US economy activity was little changed from the previous month’s report, with three districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change and four noting a slight softening.

• Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit is a leading Chinese fruit distributor with a historically strong market position, particularly in durians and other Southeast Asian fruits, built on an end-to-end supply chain. The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, leveraging a multi-brand strategy to capture a significant share of China’s expanding fresh fruit market.
• The company is facing existential threats. Trading in its shares was suspended in March 2024, followed by the resignation of its auditor, KPMG. Authorities in Chongqing have imposed restrictive measures and key executives, including the Chairman, are under criminal investigation for suspected loan fraud and false tax invoices, leading to significant operational disruptions.
• Due to a failure to publish required financial results and address regulatory concerns about management integrity, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has initiated the process to delist the company’s shares. This, combined with the ongoing investigation and lack of financial transparency, creates an extremely high-risk profile for investors.

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• Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
• Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
• The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

• JST Group (6687 HK) is China’s largest e-commerce SaaS ERP provider. It is seeking to raise HK$2,086 million (US$268 million).
• I previously discussed the IPO in JST Group IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive in the context of the revenue growth.

Key points (machine generated)

• Plover Bay Technologies specializes in reliable internet connectivity for critical applications in challenging environments.
• The company has partnered with Starlink as their first Authorized Technology Partner to enhance multi-WAN bandwidth bonding and fail-over capabilities.
• CEO Alex Chan emphasized the mission to improve connectivity at Peplink’s global developer summit in Amsterdam.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
• Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.
• In our previous note we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and likely A/H premium.

• TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK) is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong. In the latest Series A financing, it is valued at US$1.3bn post-money.
• It has solid market growth potential, IP and product development strengths, an extensive distribution network, and good leverage on its parent MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK). 
• We initially assess a fair FY26F PER of 20-22x, equating to a slight premium to Bloks Group (325 HK) but a discount to Pop Mart (9992 HK). 

• Eccogene, a China-based clinical-stage biopharma company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. Jefferies, BoA, and CICC are the joint sponsors.
• In this note, we look at the company’s core products, ECC4703, and key products ECC5004 and ECC0509.
• We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

• Yunji Inc. is a pioneer in China’s membership-based social e-commerce sector, leveraging social interactions to drive sales through a network of members who act as promoters.
• The company is facing significant headwinds, including declining revenues and widening net losses, amidst intense competition in the Chinese e-commerce landscape.
• Yunji’s strategic focus is on cost optimization, improving gross margins, and launching new product lines in an effort to achieve profitability and stabilize its financial performance.

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• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Vedanta Resources
• The UST curve twisted slightly steeper yesterday, following dovish comments from a few Fed officials that kept rate-cut expectations intact. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.48%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.03%.
• Equities retreated, owing to fresh US-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 6,644, while the Nasdaq declined 0.8% to 22,522.

• Market Leader in a Growing Niche: Shanghai Sunmi Technology is a global leader in the Android-based Business Internet of Things (BIoT) device sector, with a reported market share of over 10%. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the global transition from traditional point-of-sale (POS) systems to integrated, smart-device ecosystems.
• Robust Partner Ecosystem as a Key Differentiator: Sunmi’s competitive advantage is anchored by its extensive open-platform ecosystem, which includes the SUNMI OS (based on Android), a dedicated business app store with over 13,000 applications, and a network of more than 58,000 ecosystem partners. This fosters innovation and provides end-users with a wide array of tailored software solutions.
• Strategic Backing and Impending IPO: The company is backed by prominent strategic investors, including Ant Group, Xiaomi Technology, and Meituan. Sunmi is currently in the IPO registration phase for a Hong Kong listing, which is expected to provide significant capital for future growth, product development, and market expansion.

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• The core of Bama’s business model is light-asset operation of “brand + channel”. Bama is highly dependent on franchise model, but we’ve seen a diminishing marginal benefit of channel penetration.
• Due to sluggish consumption environment, revenue of Bama could decline by 4% in 2025.From 2026 to 2027, as strategic adjustments take effect, Bama may resume growth of 3% to 5%.
• Considering the decline in performance in 25H1 and the low valuation of traditional tea enterprises in the Hong Kong stock market, Bama’s valuation performance may be under pressure.

• Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), the world’s third-largest construction machinery company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion.     
• SANY has six operating segments. The largest segment, as measured by revenue and gross profit, is excavating machinery.
• The fundamentals are good, with strong growth, an increasing overseas mix, an improving margin profile, strong cash generation, and a solid balance sheet. 

• The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November. 
• China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
• Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

• TOP TOY International Group Limited, a world-class pop toy brand company from China, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
• Founded in 2020, the brand has quickly positioned itself as a domestic rival to China’s Pop Mart, capitalizing on the country’s booming “blind box” and designer toy craze.
• TOP TOY has shown strong growth and execution, going from RMB641m in sales of pop toy products in 2022 to RMB2,554m expected this year.

• Chando Global Limited (CHANDO HK) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai International and UBS.
• Chando Global is a multi brand cosmetics company in China. It was China’s third-largest domestic cosmetics group, by retail sales in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
• Its flagship brand, CHANDO, had consistently ranked among the top two domestic cosmetics brands for 12 consecutive years from 2013 to 2024 by retail sales.

• Water Oasis operates a resilient, dual-engine business model combining beauty services and product retail, primarily in Hong Kong. This diversification provides multiple revenue streams and cross-selling opportunities.
• The company exhibits a strong financial position with a debt-free balance sheet and significant cash reserves, supporting a high dividend yield. However, recent net income and dividend payouts have shown volatility.
• Future growth hinges on the recovery of consumer spending in Hong Kong and successful expansion into Greater China. The company’s strategy of targeting various consumer segments and expanding its brand portfolio positions it to capture market shifts, though it faces intense competition.

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• LakeShore Biopharma’s delisting from Nasdaq to OTC caused forced selling, impacting merger arbitrage spread, with 18% upside potential.
• Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals faces legal challenges over a material adverse change, with a 40-50% spread.
• Currency Exchange International’s closure of Canadian business and potential US uplisting could enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

• Xuanzhu raised HKD 781m (USD 100m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, October 15, 2025.
• In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
• In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

• JST Group (1703609D CH) is looking to raise up to US$270m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is China’s largest and most popular e-commerce SaaS ERP provider. 
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK)’s share price has surged by 92% to reach HK$137.4 per share since its IPO price of HK$71.59 per share.
• Zijin Gold now trades at a 61% premium to the comps’ average EV/EBITDA valuation multiple in 2026. 
• One could argue that this excessive valuation multiple is a bit too aggressive despite higher growth prospects. Therefore, on a relative valuation basis, we would not chase after Zijin Gold. 

• Pilbara shipments are tracking the lower end of guidance, with cyclone recovery hinging on a strong Q4.
• Simandou shipments stay on schedule, adding supply pressure amid weak Chinese steel demand and negative margins.
• China’s diversification and RMB trade shift threaten Rio’s pricing power, demanding agility and strategic adaptation.

• Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
• The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
• China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

• Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$9.25 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 November. 
• I previously argued that the vote carries risk due to a solid interim, the imminent surgical robot growth story, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.
• However, the risk has been lowered due to Bin Yuan and LYFE no longer being shareholders, along with the peer derating. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 3.7%/22.0%.

• BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September.
• We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down to 16%, but op margin will rise in 2026.
• We believe the stock price is overvalued, whether measured by time-series or cross-sectional methods.

• The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed
• There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times
• Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.

• “Beautiful Skew” showed up again across the long holiday. Hs on average outperformed As by 1.57% over the 29-30 Sep and 9-10 Oct period.
• Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share OUTperform its A by 2.52% and it outright rose just over 1%. Meh.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• Top Toy International is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the next several months. 
• Top Toy was last valued at US$1.3 billion in July 2025 when it received a US$59.4 million Series A financing (of which Temasek contributed US$40 million for a 3.2% stake).
• Top Toy is trading at P/E of 32x (2024 net profit) (valuation of US$1.3 billion) versus Pop Mart (P/E of 103x based on its 2024 net profit). 

• Fibocom Wireless (300638 CH) a wireless communication modules provider, aims to raise up to US$400m in its H-share listing.
• Fibocom was founded in Nov 1999, and is a leading wireless communication module provider. The firm’s module products include i) data transmission modules, ii) smart modules, and iii) AI modules.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Singamas is a major global container manufacturer facing a cyclical industry downturn, characterized by overcapacity and pressure on container prices.
• Despite challenging market conditions, the company maintains a strong balance sheet, an asset-light model, and is diversifying into higher-margin specialized containers, such as Energy Storage Systems (ESS), and growing its leasing business to provide more stable revenue streams.
• The company offers a compelling dividend yield, supported by a stated policy of returning value to shareholders, but faces significant risks from global trade tensions, economic slowdowns, and intense competition.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• As discussed in our previous BYD insight on October 3, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.
• BYD (1211 HK) was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined >30% in a few months. It’s oversold.
• However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day in the four days spanning the long holiday break. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
• The recommended name was short Great Wall Motor (2333 HK). The stock was +1% over two weeks, but underperformed its H by 0.52%. Great Wall is down 4+% today.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.