Consumer

• In Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable, I surmised, on balance, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) would afford Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) due diligence. That is now confirmed.
• PointsBet initial focus will be on Betr’s scrip as it comprises 43% of the funding mix.
• Separately, Mixi Inc (2121 JP)‘s Scheme Booklet was dispatched on the 8th May, with a shareholder vote on the 12th June. Mixi has matching rights under its SID.

• KDDL’s precision engineering division, Eigen, is expanding its manufacturing capacity with a new facility and further upgrades planned, aiming to capture high-growth sectors like aerospace, automotive, and medical devices.
• This expansion enhances KDDL’s competitive edge in precision engineering, a high-margin segment, and aligns with the company’s goal of making Eigen a significant revenue contributor, targeting 40-50% of manufacturing revenue.
• The focus on precision engineering and premium retail through Ethos positions KDDL for sustained growth, balancing stable manufacturing revenue with high-margin luxury retail.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Steel, Tata Motors
• US President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday hat the US had “a very good meeting with China in Switzerland”, with “great progress made”. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described “substantial progress”, adding that further details would be announced today.
• Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng highlighted that the talks were “candid, in-depth and constructive” on issues of concern to both countries, adding that the meeting “achieved substantial progress” and “reached important consensus”.

• In a surprising turn of events, the management of Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) has cancelled earnings call for Q4FY25 citing Indo-Pak conflict after posting bad quarterly numbers.
• Receivable cycle has further elongated to all time high since the company became public.
• Revenue growth yet remains muted post company became public in 2022.

• Taiwan’s Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT — US$1.7 billion) is the world’s largest bicycle manufacturer.

• It’s based in the Taiwanese city of Taichung, which has become somewhat of the center of the global bicycle industry.

• From there, it controls nine factories around the world, selling about 6 million bicycles a year via many thousands of distributors in 50 countries. 

• The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective “shortcut” of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
• A likely situation is Chagee’s future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
• If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.

• PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.
• MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.
• Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.

• Asbury Automotive Group’s first quarter of 2025 financial performance showcased both strong aspects and potential challenges.
• The company reported revenue of $4.1 billion, with a gross profit of $724 million, yielding a gross profit margin of 17.5%.
• Despite facing tariff-related uncertainties, Asbury achieved an all-time record gross profit in its parts and service division, with a same-store gross profit increase of 5% and a 6% rise in same-store customer pay gross.

• It is expected that there will be cases where investors and companies will have different views on “what constitutes constructive dialogue,” which will be added to the revised Stewardship Code. 
• This revision would be unfortunate if it is used only to secure affirmative votes for company agendas and to seek a compromise on shareholder proposals.
• Before starting constructive dialogue with investors, a company must have business strategy that is “conducive to sustainable growth” or engagement will be waste of time and will not help management.

• In Q1 FY12/25, sales reached JPY11.9bn (+7.0% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA at JPY1.5bn (+44.3% YoY).
• Segment sales in Healthcare were JPY10.9bn (+6.0% YoY) and segment profit was JPY1.2bn (+30.5% YoY).
• Biofuels segment sales were JPY252mn (+113.6% YoY) with a segment loss of JPY50mn, improving from prior losses.

• Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
• The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.
• Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.

• The review period for the June rebalance of the HSTECH INDEX ended on 31 March, the changes will be announced on 16 May and implemented on 6 June.
• Following the launch of the God’s Eye ADAS, BYD (1211 HK) could become eligible for index inclusion after meeting the Autonomous theme and Innovation screening.
• The inclusion of BYD (1211 HK) in the index could result in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index in June.

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time

• The review period for the June rebalance of the HSCEI ended on 31 March, the results will be announced on 16 May and will be implemented on 6 June.
• Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) could be deleted from the index.
• There are other stocks with big flows due to a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the rebalance in June.

• The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.
• Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.
• We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.

• Tam Jai International (2217 HK)‘s net profit dropped 32.7% in FY25, but the 2H earnings have seen a recovery to an 18.2% YoY growth, vs. -55.8% in 1H. 
• Net cash stayed intact at HK$1.33bn, or 65.1% of its market capitalisation. Management looks cautiously optimistic in the outlook, and will push for expansion of two Japanese brands.
• There has been minimal further noise from the minority shareholders. With the privatisation PER at over 60% premium to the sector average, we think most shareholders will give in.

• The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management’s consideration of attracting long-term funds.
• If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.
• However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea’s valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  

• Sales reached JPY236.3bn (+5.9% YoY) with operating profit at JPY16.8bn (+11.3% YoY) and net income JPY11.2bn (+14.2% YoY).
• For FY03/26, Seria forecasts sales of JPY242.9bn (+2.8% YoY) and net income of JPY10.2bn (-9.1% YoY).
• The company plans to open 120 directly managed stores and close 70, totaling 2,122 stores by FY03/26 end.

• Positioned for Long-Term Growth: Backed by strong industry tailwinds in EVs, clean energy, and exports, Sundram Fasteners (SF IN) is strategically expanding beyond its core auto portfolio into high-potential sectors.
• Near-Term Risk-Reward Balanced: With the stock trading at 33x P/E on FY26E earnings, valuations appear stretched, and near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainties may limit upside.
• Proven Management & Governance: Backed by the reputable TVS Group, the company’s disciplined execution and transparent governance inspire long-term investor confidence.

• Revenue increased by JPY5.3bn YoY, driven by Kirihara Shoten’s addition and increased study guide sales.
• Operating profit declined by JPY600mn due to rising costs in Healthcare and Welfare; Educational segment saw profit growth.
• Net income rose by JPY652mn, aided by absence of prior stock sale loss and step acquisition gain.

• A core investment thesis of Shinyoung Wacoal is that its market cap is 94 billion won but its real estate properties in Seoul/Daejeon account for more than 500 billion won. 
• Shinyoung Wacoal’s net cash as a percentage of market cap is 99%. If the real estate is revalued to market values, it would be trading at P/B of only 0.1x.
• Shin Young Wacoal (005800 KS) is one of the largest companies in Korea that specializes in women’s underwear.

• YETI Holdings reported its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, revealing mixed results.
• During this period, the company focused on three main areas: accelerating product innovation, transforming supply chain logistics to minimize exposure to China, and enforcing operational discipline to maintain a strong financial position.
• Despite a generally positive performance in some aspects, notable challenges were encountered, impacting the company’s financial outlook for the year.

• Altria Group reported its first-quarter performance for 2025 amidst varying market dynamics.
• The company, known primarily for its tobacco products, emphasized robust operations in its Smokeable Products and Oral Tobacco Products segments.
• Altria CEO Billy Gifford highlighted that the core traditional tobacco business remained profitable in a challenging environment, and the company’s flagship brand, Marlboro, continued to show resilience despite economic pressures.

• Domino’s Pizza delivered a mixed performance in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating resilience through strategic innovation and operational discipline amid a difficult macroeconomic environment.
• The company reported earnings per share of $4.33, up 21% year over year and ahead of Wall Street expectations, driven primarily by increased franchise advertising revenue, supply chain income from franchisee purchases, and international royalty and fee growth.
• However, total revenue came in at $1.11 billion, below the analyst estimate of $1.13 billion.

• General Motors Company reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a complex environment marked by significant policy shifts and evolving market dynamics.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter reached $44 billion, marking a 2% year-over-year increase.
• GM also achieved $3.5 billion in adjusted EBIT and $2.78 in adjusted diluted EPS, though EBIT-adjusted margins stood at 7.9%, slightly down from the previous year.

• The Kraft Heinz Company, during its first quarter of 2025, demonstrated a blend of steady execution in certain strategic areas against a backdrop of ongoing market challenges.
• The company’s performance was marked by top-line results aligning with expectations, strong cash flow, and a robust balance sheet.
• However, the company also faced amplified pressures contributing to a broader cut in guidance, notably larger than previous adjustments.

• Mondelez International reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, showing solid results amidst challenging external conditions.
• The company’s revenue grew by 3.1%, driven primarily by robust pricing execution in its chocolate business due to unprecedented cocoa input costs.
• However, volume/mix decreased by 3.5% as elasticity pressures continued.

• Royal Caribbean Group reported its first-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a mix of strong performance and strategic initiatives offset by awareness of potential macroeconomic challenges.
• The company exceeded expectations with adjusted earnings per share of $2.71, surpassing their guidance by $0.23.
• This outperformance was driven by strong consumer demand and pricing, particularly with close-in bookings surpassing prior trends.

• Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
• For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
• But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns

• The Coca-Cola Company’s first quarter in 2025 demonstrated its adaptation to the dynamic global environment, producing significant growth in organic revenues and operating margins.
• The company reported a 2% increase in volume growth and robust organic revenue growth, aligning with their longstanding growth algorithm.
• Coca-Cola maintained a resilient posture amidst challenges such as macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, achieving these results through enhanced capabilities, improved local execution, and effective alignment across systems.

• Geely Auto (175 HK)‘s discount to NAV is less than half its 12-month average. And Geely is generally trading tighter to listed PRC auto peers. 
• Preceding my comments on Geely – and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.
• GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.

• On the 30th September 2024, B2C-player Webjet Group (WJL AU) demerged from (now) B2B-player WEB Travel Group (WEB AU). This was discussed in Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger. 
• Webjet is up 34% this week, on decent volume. The word on the street is that an undisclosed buyer with ~5% was seeking to add an additional 5% (19.6mn shares). 
• Webjet announced after market yesterday it had became aware of such a buyer. That’s all the information at hand.

•  In Q1 2025, Cambodia exports 59,754 tons of rubber, down 13.8% YoY  
• Overall rubber production in Q1 2025, 64,080 tons, down 7.9% YoY  
• Trump tariff, EUDR pose challenge to Cambodian rubber and tire  

• In our previousNIFTY Index insight we highlighted rally targets in the 24039-24496 zone. The index reached 24589 last week, double-topped this week, then closed the week down at 24008.
• The index was ultra-overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the pullback was overdue. This pullback is a buy opportunity.
• This insight discusses key support zones to buy and profit taking targets for the rally.

• Q2 FY09/24 results show a 2.1% YoY GMV decrease to JPY57.6bn and a 40.5% YoY revenue decline.
• In Q2 FY09/25, GMV increased due to marketing initiatives and new features, with total membership surpassing 6mn.
• BEENOS’s Q2 FY09/25 progress towards full-year targets was 50.1% for GMV and 52.0% for revenue.

• The company reported revenue of JPY3.0bn, operating profit of JPY204mn, and net profit of JPY98mn, all showing YoY growth.
• Revenue growth was driven by increased photo shoots and unit prices, despite higher personnel and transaction costs.
• The fitness gym business saw a 29.0% YoY revenue decline due to the closure of the Ashiya store.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the May catalog.
• While May did not register any material new campaigns, and historically is a key transition month, the catalog continued the key tenets of the 2025 focus: 1) more product: SKUs rose YoY 4.6%, the fourth consecutive month of YoY SKU increases; 2) more newness: new product offerings increases YoY, with kitchen the key driver; 3) higher pricing: the average pricing for May was the highest the last four years and up 9.3% YoY and 4) more bargains: May also had a higher level of product discounts YoY, as the Mexican consumer remains focused on bargains; that said, May price cuts were the lowest level in 2025.
• We believe the May catalog reflected a somewhat resolute Betterware management, focused on driving returns in a tough Mexican economy.

• FY03/25 revenue grew 12.4% YoY, driven by proactive inventory strategies and expanded product lineup, with GPM at 52.1%.
• FY03/26 forecasts include 9.8% YoY revenue growth, 12.2% YoY gross profit increase, and 12.7% YoY operating profit growth.
• FY03/25 net income fell 12.2% YoY due to impairment losses, store relocations, and higher corporate tax rate.

• Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) was supposed to announce earnings at 2pm JST. They didn’t. Someone (or people) decided that meant there might be a takeover. There was.
• The stock popped nearly 15% to ¥6,200, paused, was flat for an hour, then popped again, closing at ¥6,150/share. Post-close, we get a deal at ¥6,340/share.  
• A disappointing process. At ¥6,240, the Special Committee said it was “far from a standard that takes into account the interests of TargetCo’s minority shareholders.” At ¥6,340, they dealt. Aaaargh.

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)  targets to raise approximately USD350 mn from a primary placement of 4.31 million new shares at HKD630 per share.
• Laopu Gold has delivered both superior margins and rapid growth by marrying cultural resonance, premium pricing, artisanal excellence, and outstanding store economics.
• Laopu’s growth track record coincides with period of rising gold prices. Investors should weigh its impressive margins and brand strength against the risk of a less supportive gold price environment.

• East Buy Holding (1797 HK) was deleted from the Hang Seng TECH Index in March and could be deleted from the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in June.
• There are other ETFs that track the same index (and similar indices), and those trackers will be selling East Buy Holding (1797 HK) too.
• There has been some short covering in the stock recently, but short interest is pretty high as a percentage of float. Watch out for short covering that offsets passive selling.

• Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) at JPY6,340 per share, a 17.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
• While the offer represents an all-time high, it is materially below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
• The light offer resulted from an unusually long process, with twelve rounds of proposals. However, the shareholder structure suggests a done deal.  

• Large Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) investor Orbis Investments last month said they were against the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon’s Oasis buy price from 2024.
• Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has apparently come out recommending shareholders vote against. That’s a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.
• Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) expects U.S. tariffs, material costs and a weak(er) dollar to dent profits.  The automaker estimated the levies directly costing it 180 billion yen in April/May.
• The stock fell after the company reported its fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Thursday. Guidance for the coming year came in lower than expected, with tariffs taking a bite out of profits.
• In a previous insight we flagged the stock as overbought; those model targets remain valid. Here, we analyze updated support to gauge the pullback’s potential depth.

• We interact with local business owners and our channels in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir with an objective to understand the current sentiment on the ground. 
• Srinagar, Kashmir’s summer capital, remains strategically vital in the current conflict as a military hub and political flashpoint between India and Pakistan.
• Local business owners are hopeful that the escalating conflict and the media attention surrounding it will ease by the 10th of May.

• The IPO price of d’Alba Global has been finalized at 66,300 won which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
• The demand ratio of the IPO was 1,141 to 1. A 98.4% of the IPO shares applied thought that the value of the company is 66,300 won or more.
• Our base case valuation of d’Alba Global is a target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the IPO price of 66,300 won.

• F&F is one of the key beneficiaries of the exploding popularity of Jung Hoo Lee in the MLB (Major League Baseball) in the United States.
• The surging popularity of Jung Hoo Lee could lead to higher demand for F&F’s core products (MLB baseball caps and apparel products), which could lead to higher sales and profits.
• F&F recently provided new shareholder return plans including providing at least 25% of net profit as dividends/buybacks/cancellations (including buyback at least 60 billion won from 2025 to 2027).

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau
• In the US, the FOMC has unanimously voted to maintain the Fed funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, in line with market expectations. In its statement, the FOMC noted that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”, adding that “risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen”.
• Still, officials noted that although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued expanding at a solid pace and labour market conditions have remained strong. Meanwhile, inflation is “somewhat elevated”.

• Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May. 
• The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
• Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year. 

• Urban Company (URBAN IN)  (UCL) is looking to raise about US$223m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JM Fin.
• UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
• As of Dec 24, it operated in 59 cities across India and overseas.

• Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)‘s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
• At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny’s multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
• Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.

• As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.
• Fad cycles may or may not have legs – see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.
• Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.

• Colgate-Palmolive’s latest earnings reveals a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2025, underscoring both opportunities and challenges that the company faces in its strategic operations.
• The company’s management approached the volatile economic environment with a sense of preparedness, though consumer behavior and global economic pressures have presented some difficulties.
• One of the significant challenges highlighted is the impact of a weaker consumer market, particularly evident in volume growth struggles.

• Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) (HDNET) raised around US$180m via its A/H listing.
• HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics, in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

H125 EPS grew 10% despite some revenue pressure on the core business as non-core revenue streams increased, cost savings were generated and finance costs declined. Furthermore, the company has appointed a new MD for Smiths News Recycle, which is a strong endorsement for its final-mile growth prospects. The addressable non-core ‘early morning’ market is sizeable and has a profit opportunity of c £160m, which implies that there is potential to more than offset the decline seen in the core operations and could lead to long-term profit growth. This in turn underpins the cash generation and the dividends, and could see further distributions if investment for growth is not required. We maintain our full year forecasts and our 93p/share valuation.

• 2025 has been a tumultuous year for Tesla (TSLA US), the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk’s role in the US government has damaged the brand.
• Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.
• Despite rising competition from BYD (1211 HK) and others, Tesla (TSLA US)  remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.

• Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)  reported Q1 FY25 revenue and earnings growth of 13% and 17%, (inline with analysts estimates) due to improved product mix and pricing.
• Management provided conservative guidance for FY25, projecting baseline revenue and EPS growth of 5% and 2% YoY, citing a 50 bps risk on margin owing to the trade wars. 
• The stock trades at 46.8x FY25 PE and 27x EV-EBITDA. Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) continues to maintain its unique pricing power position due to its loyal customer base. 

• AutoNation Incorporated delivered a robust performance in the first quarter of 2025, marked by notable achievements across several business areas.
• The company saw significant growth in new vehicle unit sales, with a 7% increase year-over-year, buoyed by strong performance in the Premium Luxury, Domestic, and Import segments.
• This growth was partly attributed to an acceleration following a tariff announcement, showcasing AutoNation’s agility in navigating external economic factors.

• The Trump administration proposed a new 100% tariffs at movies produced outside the United States. Korean contents account for about 8-9% of total viewing hours on Netflix globally.
• Top three listed film/drama production companies in Korea including Studio Dragon, CJ ENM, and ContentreeJoongAng are likely to be negatively impacted by the new major tariffs imposed by the U.S.
• Economics of making a movie is much cheaper in South Korea versus the U.S. Producing a film in South Korea can cost 30–70% less than in the United States.

• Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Busy Ming Group, “a snack brand for the people” and the largest snack and beverage chain retailer in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong.
• The fast-growing retailer was backed by HongShan Capital, Gaorong Ventures, 5Y Capital, Haoxiangni Health Food, and Yanker Shop Food Co., among others.
• Busy Ming Group is tapping into Gen Z and younger millennial consumers with playful branding and social media engagement.

• K-Beauty ODM segment appears positioned both to ride the secular growth of Korean skincare in the U.S. and to tide over tariff turbulence given their US based manufacturing facilities.
• By contrast to OEM/ODM players, major legacy consumer beauty brands like AmorePacific, LG Household & Health Care have been slower to localise production leaving them exposed to reciprocal tariffs.
• With American cosmetic imports from Korea hitting all-time highs, Korean ODMs with local facilities could see demand growth and profit recovery as clients onshore production to avoid tariffs.

• Musinsa is getting ready to complete its IPO in 2H 2025. Musinsa is the top fashion online/mobile platform in Korea. 
• The market value of Musinsa is expected to be about 5 trillion won which could be one of the largest IPOs in Korea this year. 
• Musinsa had its best ever results in 2024 with sales of 1.2 trillion won (up 25.1% YoY), operating profit of 102.8 billion won, and net profit of 69.8 billion won.

• The dissolution of parent-subsidiary listing was achieved through the sale of a portion of the listed subsidiary’s equity interest. The postponement of this issue is noted as an investment opportunity.
• The status change of the listed subsidiary doesn’t address concerns regarding the interests of the subsidiary’s minority shareholders, nor does it implement restructuring of the parent company’s entire business portfolio.
• While investors are disappointed that the problem has been postponed, it also means that there are still many investment opportunities remaining, including for listed affiliates.

• Continuing the trend from last week’s report (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, initially discussed 4/8/25.
• As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 report, when we noted SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against.
• While SPX is approaching short-term resistance levels and reducing risk is prudent, we remain short-term bullish if SPX is above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA.

Topps Tiles’ H125 trading update indicates improving volume and revenue trends through Q225, with an exit rate of high-single-digit revenue growth in March 2025. There is a clear message that the Mission 365 initiatives to grow revenue (category extensions, greater trade and digital sales) are coming through against a subdued backdrop for the homeowner. In addition to good revenue growth, there is positive news on gross margin, helped by pricing, mix and discount structures to counter the dilution from growing trade sales. Our FY25 estimates are unchanged but they need the March trends to continue in order to deliver the required c 7% underlying revenue growth excluding the contribution from CTD Tiles in H225. The statement highlights there is good progress in identifying potential candidates to succeed Rob Parker as chief executive, with a high degree of interest expressed.

• AABL is entering premium segments with new products like gin, whisky, and tequila marking a shift from mass-market to value-added growth. 
• This matters as it boosts margin potential and strengthens brand equity amid rising premium liquor demand.
• Our view shifts positively on AABL’s long-term strategy, despite near-term risks in regulation and corporate governance.

• A quiet week as most indices – HK and mainland – saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week. 
• For a couple of months I’ve thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
• The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.

• Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
• Temu won’t sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, & will rely on local fulfillment
• The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com

• Ather Energy (1207922D IN) lists on Indian stock exchanges today with expectations of a subdued debut.
• Following its IPO, and early VC investors gradually reducing their stakes, the ownership and influence dynamics may begin to tilt more toward Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) that now owns 30%.
• Is this shift a threat to Ather’s innovation-driven DNA, or should investors support a stronger collaboration with Hero Motocorp to unlock accelerated growth and take on competition from ICE incumbents?

• Strong Core Performance:Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) delivered robust growth in Auto &Farm segments in Q4FY25,with SUV volumes up 20% &tractor volumes up 12%,alongside market share gains in both segments.
• Strategic Expansion & Capital Allocation: The company outlined a clear roadmap for scaling EV and ICE capacities to 85K/month by FY27.
• Valuation Upside from Growth Platforms:With scalable and emerging “growth gems” across real estate, hospitality,renewables, and EVs, M&M’s Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation pegs fair value at INR 3,437/share, including the EV business.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel

• In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in meaningfully above estimates at 177 k in April (138 k e / 185 k revised p), albeit the March numbers were revised downwards to 185 k (from 228 k). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The average hourly earnings rose 3.8% y-o-y (3.9% e / 3.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).

• The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that US officials have “repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues”, and added that China is currently evaluating the situation.

• Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of “card revenue+derivative products”.
• Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”
• Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government’s supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.

• Share prices are gradually stabilizing, influenced by news reports suggesting that Trump may eventually reduce tariffs on China (although trust overhang with Trump statements remains an issue).
• Besides Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK), most companies have halted capital allocation decisions like buybacks till more clarity emerges.
• Stella International (1836 HK)  has the highest US revenue exposure at 47%, followed by Crystal International (2232 HK) at 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK)  at 58%.

• Ather Energy (1207922D IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO.
• Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
• In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
• Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK). 

• Based on experience with “TSE’s request,” it’s impossible to request the same level of disclosure from every company. Companies that overseas investors can target should be requested to disclose proactively.
• This “FSA’s request” is expected to potentially cause companies to lose the effectiveness of the tactics they have used to control AGMs. Future steps are expected.
• The slowdown in profit margin growth may also increase calls for improved corporate governance practices, with more companies reducing cross-shareholdings and launching stronger shareholder returns.

• Sankyo is a leading Japanese maker of Pachinko and Pachislot machines. The company has a consistent record of generating positive free cash flow and operating cash flow.
• It trades at 6x EV/EBITDA (2025E) and P/E of 9.5x (2025E). Its net margin improved from 9.9% in 2021 to 21.8% in 2022, and 27% in 2024.
• Sankyo has also been aggressively buying back its shares in the past five years. We believe Sankyo could continue to outperform the market in the next 1-2 years. 

• Interpublic Group’s (IPG) recent earnings detailed the company’s financial and operational performance for the first quarter of 2025, illustrating a mixed yet strategically potent landscape.
• With an organic revenue decrease of 3.6%, this was in line with IPG’s expectations for the quarter.
• The company attributed this decline to adverse impacts from past account losses, which primarily affected the U.S., Europe, and Asia Pacific regions.

• Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over Toyota Industries (6201 JP), not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.
• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down Palliser’s proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.
• Hainan Meilan (357 HK)‘s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it’s not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

• Tractor Supply Company (TSC) presented its first quarter results for 2025 with a nuanced report that reflects both strong operational execution and the challenges of a shifting macroeconomic environment.
• Total sales reached a record $3.47 billion, marking a 2.1% increase despite a 0.9% decline in comparable store sales.
• The growth in sales figures underscores a robust transaction increase; however, it was offset by a decline in the average ticket size, largely attributed to adverse weather conditions impacting seasonal sales and a resulting product mix shift.

• Pool Corporation’s (POOLCORP) first-quarter results for 2025 reveal both challenges and resilience amid a fluctuating market environment.
• The company recorded net sales of $1.1 billion, a decline of 4% year-over-year, though this figure improved to a 2% decline when adjusting for the same selling days.
• The first quarter was marked by challenging weather conditions in key markets and an Easter holiday that shifted sales into the second quarter.

• LKQ Corporation’s recent financial results reflect a mixed performance, with both favorable developments and ongoing challenges evident in its earnings report.
• During the quarter, LKQ reported diluted earnings per share of $0.65, marking a $0.06 increase compared to the previous year.
• However, on an adjusted basis, diluted EPS stood at $0.79, reflecting a slight decline of $0.03 from the prior year, mainly due to decreased segment EBITDA dollars in LKQ’s North American market.

• Hasbro performed well in the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by the success of its Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segments.
• The company reported a 17% increase in revenue, reaching $887 million, largely fueled by strong sales from the MAGIC: THE GATHERING franchise and robust licensing performance.
• Key strategic initiatives, such as the “Play to Win” strategy, reinforced cost discipline and emphasized profitable growth, contributing to a 50% rise in adjusted operating profit, which resulted in a 70% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $1.04.

• Given Japan’s growing interest in food-based health solutions, multiple players are looking to build businesses in the field across gut health and dietary solutions for the old and infirm.
• Oisix, the leading online food retailer has developed an incubator for start ups in this area.
• It is hoping to create a mini silicon valley for food tech businesses.