Consumer

• The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
• Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 1.3-19x ADV (7.1-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-47x ADV on the deletions.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JP) avoids capping in March, passives will buy Nitori Holdings (9843 JP), and 25 stocks have over 0.5x ADV to sell as part of the funding trade.

• L’Occitane (973 HK) announced a strong 3QFY24 operational update last night.  Share price is up 7% today and up 36% since interim results announcement late November last year.
• Sol de Janeiro, the Brazilian-inspired premium body care brand, continued to shine in the quarter, growing 199% at reported sales and 214% at constant currency. 
• Recommend to take advantage of the current weak sentiment on such companies trading on the HK stock exchange but are actually not reliant on China in terms of business fundamentals.

• Amer Sports (AS US) raised around US$1.3bn in its US IPO, after pricing its IPO below its initial range, as per media reports.
• Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
• We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) is a monopoly in the Philippines, with over 95% of the gin market. It has a 10 Revenue CAGR of 14%. 
• The company has experienced margin expansion due to premiumization and operating leverage on SG&A, the former of which is likely to continue in the future with new premium gin launches.
• There is value in the name trading at 7x PE, with >20% of the market cap in cash and a 7.3% dividend yield predicated on a 50% payout ratio. 

• Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. 
• The company’s margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. 
• Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.

Key points (machine generated)

• Liverpool is a major player in the financial services industry in Mexico and offers credit cards.
• The company has a strong presence in retail, real estate, and financial sectors, focusing on expanding its reach and providing a diverse range of products and services.
• Liverpool has incorporated e-commerce and implemented a new logistics platform to strengthen their supply chain and accommodate more clients, showcasing their dedication to innovation and customer satisfaction.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• This is our first report on e-commerce player, Global-e Online Ltd.
• The company delivered decent results for the third quarter of 2023, marked by significant growth in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) by 35% and an Adjusted EBITDA increase by 76%.
• A key determinant of this success was their improved profitability margins and comprehensive cost control measures, alongside strategic advancements across their operations.

WPP’s capital markets day (CMD) focused on the combination of creativity and AI at scale and how these can be leveraged to boost clients’ businesses. Outline Q423 performance figures were given, along with updated forward guidance, including on restructuring costs and potential payback. We expect market expectations to be broadly unchanged. The overarching narrative of consolidation and simplification, common data platforms and standardised reporting, is coherent and supports the projected margin expansion. To be really convincing, though, top-line growth needs to exceed the 3% indicated, which depends on better performances in both Media and Creative. The rating remains undemanding.

Smiths News’ trading update highlights the resilience of its business model in a tough macroeconomic environment, with FY24 results expected to be in line with consensus. As a reminder, our 2024e PBT forecast stands flat at £33.4m despite an anticipated 6% y-o-y decline in revenue to £1.0bn, attributable to management’s tight control of the business and the ongoing annual efficiencies being delivered. Smiths has renewed several long-term publisher contracts in the past year, which could imply visibility over c 74% of annual revenues to 2029, with potential for expansion. This should further bolster the company’s cash-generative business model and underpin the sustainability of the business in the long term.

• 2QFY24 (December) ongoing EPS was $0.10 versus ($0.07) in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $0.04 estimate.
• Ongoing EBITDA was $3.1MM in the quarter, well above the $0.8MM in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $2.5MM estimate.
• EBITDA margins of 6.0% exceeded our 4.6% estimate.

• Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.
• We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.
• We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.

• Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Ecuador’s crisis, driven by violence and narco-gang threats, impacts the global seafood supply chain, especially the lucrative shrimp exports sector.
• Resilient amid challenges, India holds its position as the second-largest global shrimp producer, balancing opportunities and persistent challenges in logistics and competition.
• Investors urged caution in the Indian seafood boom, yet potential opportunities arise from Ecuador’s supply disruptions, with reduced import duty enhancing India’s competitiveness.

• FirstCry (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, has filed for a US$700 million IPO. 
• In Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on the worrying trend of India’s KPIs, margin pressures, cash burn, and deteriorating balance sheet strength. 

Key points (machine generated)

• The litigation industry is filing lawsuits against companies that manufacture consumer headphones, including major players like Apple, Bose, and Skullcandy.
• The company in focus has filed lawsuits against several headphone manufacturers and has settled with Apple and Plantronics, earning around $11.0 million in net proceeds.
• Despite being in a declining industry, the company is currently trading as a net-net and has hidden asset value, suggesting potential upside value of up to 75%, with a downside value only slightly lower than its current levels.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• If the ISS ROE criteria, which seems somewhat slow, were to be resumed, many companies would still be below 5%. However, how many companies are feeling threatened?
• About 40% of the companies have large shareholders holding more than 20% of their shares, which is one reason why many companies do not feel a sense of threat.
• Domestic institutional investors should apply the Proxy Voting Guidelines more strictly to companies that do not make maximum efforts to increase their ROE.

Key points (machine generated)

• O’Reilly Automotive is a retail company specializing in automotive aftermarket parts and services.
• The company has over 6,000 stores in the US and Mexico, making it one of the largest retailers and suppliers in the industry.
• O’Reilly Automotive offers both do-it-yourself and professional services for a wide range of domestic and imported automobiles.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) owns 13% of Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP). Oasis owns 13% too. Oasis ran a governance campaign but lost last summer’s AGM. Aeon supported Tsuruha.
• Tsuruha shares popped in November when Tsuruha said it was looking at its strategic options. BBG reported PE firms were circling. Now Aeon wants to buy Oasis’ stake. 
• That would put Aeon in a near-blocking position without consolidating. And it would mean minorities stayed minorities. The real question is whether this is what Tsuruha wants.

• The “MBO” for Benesse traded through terms from the 6th day post-announcement onwards. 37% total traded since announcement, 20% since that 6th day. 
• The deal as announced 10 November was entirely too cheap. It was somewhat egregious if you look through the balance sheet. Plus there was a free museum on top.
• But to no avail. There is no bump. There have been no activists peeping above the parapet (yet). It isn’t impossible to block, but if nobody shows their face…

• The change in the dividend payment system in Korea in 2024 is likely to result in some attractive “double dividends” opportunities.
• According to the Korea Exchange, there are seven stocks that have changed their dividend record dates policy last year and also that pay quarterly dividends. 
• Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) (common) provides a dividend yield of 5.8% and Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) (pref) provides a dividend yield of 9.6% at current prices.

• Astra International has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being BYD.
• The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.
• Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.

• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the March 2024 index rebal event.
• I expect one change for the T50 index and two other changes for the T100 index.
• One of the T100 changes also has implications for the TDIV index flows in March 2024.

• There are a few stocks in Korea that have outperformed/ underperformed their peers and could be added to or deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
• There could be buying in EcoPro Materials and Hanjin KAL while Hotel Shilla, Pearl Abyss, F&F, Hyundai Mipo Dockyard, Hanon Systems and Jyp Entertainment could be sold.
• There will be a lot of flow on the stocks and passive trackers will need to trade over 7 days of ADV in most stocks.

• Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) notes that the pre-condition for EQT-backed MBO has been satisfied. The offer price remains unchanged at JPY2,600 per share, a 45.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
• EQT has noted a possibility of extending the tender offer close from 4 to 13 March, which suggests a limited appetite to bump the offer.
• The shares are trading 1.3% above terms. A 51% minority acceptance rate and no competing bidder indicate an unfavourable risk/reward profile – a 27% downside on deal break. 

• We believe Mixue’s low prices are fit for the current weak economy.
• Any “freshly made” price lower than Mixue’s will compete with bottled drinks.
• We also believe low rental is the key for Mixue’s low prices.

• E Mart Inc (139480 KS) has been a strong outperformer this year (up 5.6% YTD) versus KOSPI which is down 5.8% in the same period. 
• We expect E Mart to outperform the market in the rest of 2024 driven by two major factors including “open on Sundays” policy and focus on low P/B stocks. 
• E Mart is trading at P/B of 0.2x versus Coupang which is trading at P/B of 8.3x. E Mart is more attractive than Coupang, especially considering the recent catalysts. 

• Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. 
• Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• On Friday 26 January, NAFCO Co Ltd (2790 JP) announced Q3 earnings and a large Buyback Program to run from 29 January through 31 March.
• While the company is having A Very Bad Year, this buyback raises obvious questions. The size is interesting given the float and the shareholder structure. 
• Those interested in SmallCap Events might take a look. There are very short-term and slightly longer-term implications.

• The situation at Paris Miki has been relatively non-salutary the last many years til 2022. The stock has underperformed peers in sales growth and has dropped sales points. 
• The company has a decent relationship with one of its main suppliers, global eyewear giant Luxottica Group (LUX IM), which just added to their stake recently, aggressively. 
• The company is getting slow-kicked out of TOPIX, but revival appears in the works. It kind of looks like a setup for an MBO.

• This is our first report on global hotels major, Choice Hotels International.
• The company’s CEO, Patrick Pacious, and CFO, Scott Oaksmith, provided details on their financial results and strategic initiatives, including the proposed acquisition of Wyndham Hotels & Resorts.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on Natura &Co, a multinational cosmetics and personal care company.
• The Wave 2 roll-out in Brazil did, however, have positive results, showing combined year-on-year revenue growth in certain categories.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• It will be useful for investors if timely disclosure information, which has large market impact but is still disclosed in English by half of companies, is disclosed in English simultaneously.
• By limiting the TSE policy to documents that are already disclosed in English by many companies, there is concern that other high-demand documents may not be disclosed in English.
• An analysis of English disclosure status and value creation indicators shows that many companies, even those with high profitability and high stock valuation, are not ready for disclosure in English.

• This is our first report on Marriott Vacations Worldwide.
• On the positive side, contract sales across Europe and Asia Pacific increased by a notable 42% year-over-year proving the company’s strong international growth.
• Another positive aspect is the successful launch of the Hyatt Vacation Club brand and the new BEYOND program, which increased the number of travel offerings for Hyatt Vacation Club owners.

• European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  
• China’s market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft
• The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    

• This is our first report on Casey’s General Stores.
• The company’s performance in the previous quarter remains solid as it delivered strong second-quarter results.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on apparel major, American Eagle Outfitters.
• In the third quarter of 2023, American Eagle Outfitters achieved record revenue of $1.3 billion, buoyed by both strong in-store performance and a 10% growth in its digital channel.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV).
• This acquisition is part of Hilton Grand Vacations’ strategy to enhance business resilience and long-term value, suggesting new growth avenues.
• However, the company faced challenges in the third quarter, primarily due to the impact of wildfires on its Maui business.

• This is our first report on fragrance and fragrance related product provider, Inter Parfums Inc.
• The company’s Q3 2023 results painted a picture of a company capitalising on the strength of the global fragrance market.
• The total sales growth the company recorded was an impressive 27% year to date.

• This is our first report on eye health major, Bausch + Lomb Corporation.
• The company’s Q3 2023 Earnings Call reported an 8% increase in revenue, growth attributed to strengths across its well established and emerging brands that cover the whole spectrum of eye health.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on television broadcasting and digital media major, Nexstar Media Group.
• The company maintained strengths in crucial areas despite year-over-year declines in cyclical political advertising and net distribution revenue impacts resulting from negotiations with DirecTV.
• Due to the favorable terms of these agreements and upcoming renewals, the company anticipates high-margin distribution revenue growth in future periods.

• This is our first report on Toll Brothers.
• The company recorded a strong performance for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2023, despite challenges such as high mortgage rates, global unrest, and fears of a recession, delivering 2,755 homes and yielding $2.95 billion in home sales revenues.
• Similarly, for the full year, the company delivered 9,597 homes at an average price of around $1.03 million, bringing the total homebuilding revenues to a record $9.9 billion.

• As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a “beat.”
• Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).
• Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it’s healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.

• We are initiating coverage of Starco Brands, Inc. (“Starco” or the “Company”), an emerging owner and marketer of branded consumer goods, with a Buy rating and price target of $0.25, or 26X our December 2024 Adjusted EBITDA.
• Starco’s stable of brands includes: Art of Sport body and skincare products, Skylar hypoallergenic fragrance and beauty products; Soylent plant-based food products, Whipshots vodka infused whipped cream aerosols and Winona butter flavored popcorn spray.
• As such, we view STCB as a rapidly growing owner of highly differentiated brands, with the business model to register consistent and strong overall top and EBITDA returns and are initiating coverage of STCB with a Buy rating and $0.25 price target.

Britvic delivered an encouraging start to FY24 with robust Q124 results that showed good revenue progression, reflecting the strength of its brand portfolio. Group revenue growth of 8.1% was driven by positive trends in both price and volumes and was broad-based across Britvic’s geographies, continuing the positive momentum from FY23. Particularly strong growth in Brazil reflects the success of the Extra Power acquisition. Britvic reported robust trading over the important Christmas period, with revenue growth of 12.1% and volumes up 6.4% in December. The company continues to invest in its brands, including a refresh of Pepsi, and consequently is confident in achieving FY24 market expectations.

Dowlais Group’s shares trade at a significant discount to our fair value. We have lowered our forecasts due to reduced expectations for automotive production and currency impact, but the key to unlocking value remains the group’s margin trajectory. We expect management to confirm that these targets (pre-central cost operating margin over 10% against 7.1% forecast for FY23) remain on track with the impending maiden set of results.

Key points (machine generated)

• Lamb Weston’s stock price has dropped by about 30% since July 2023 due to market concerns regarding the potential impact of GLP-1s on consumer consumption and caloric intake behavior, particularly in the greasy fried foods category.
• Despite this decline, experts believe it is an overreaction and a good opportunity for investors. Lamb Weston is considered a high-quality business with strong pricing power and long-term earnings growth potential.
• The stock decline is attributed to misunderstandings, including reports of volume decline and concerns about demand and pricing power, which are not accurately reflecting the company’s true prospects.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Fujitsu General (6755 JP) came out with an ugly Q3 and ugly full-year forecast change. It appears there is lots of inventory-clearing in the channel in addition to macroeconomic headwinds. 
• The split is a little difficult to discern, but the reason for channel-clearing makes a lot of sense from the distributor side. How long it lasts hard to know.
• This creates the impetus for more cost-cutting/restructuring measures before a delayed v-bound to March 2025. Fujitsu STILL wants to sell. It may make extraordinary proposals to get it done.

• New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) reported better than expected FY2Q24 results last night, with sales up 36% yoy and net profit up 183% yoy.
• The company further guided a 42-45% sales growth in FY3Q24, well above market consensus. 
• The visibility for the next 2-3 years is actually quite high post-“double reduction” policy.

• Investment firms are using ten east to diversify their personal portfolios
• Business Breakdowns is a series of conversations with investors and operators diving deep into a single business
• John Reardon from Collectibility discusses what makes Patek Philippe such a special brand, including its history, craftsmanship, and exclusivity.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Yesterday, five companies disclosed dividend record dates and amounts. Hyundai Motor set record dates before March futures expired. Hyundai Motor offers single stock futures, presenting arbitrage opportunities.
• Daily updates and monitoring of dividend arbitrage spread are crucial. Despite limited English support, KLCA webpage proves effective with prompt updates, simplifying the process.
• KLCA webpage offers real-time updates and intuitive layout, ideal for dividend arbitrage trading preparation in the Korean market.

• Cello World Limited (CW IN) is a renowned company in the consumer products market. The company primarily operates in houseware, stationary and moulded furniture industry.
• The promoters recently undertook a major corp. restructuring post which several promoter entities were acquired by CWL. This has led to abnormally high ROCEs.
• Other forensic takeaways pertain to RPT, poor cash management, mysterious sale proceeds of PPE, subsidiaries audit, etc.

• Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)‘s management is confident about the FY24 outlook, with net profit growth of 12-13% can be sustained.  
• Casarte will continue to lead with 10-15% revenue increase. There is room for further margin expansion led by overseas markets and process optimisation in the domestic market.
• The plunge in real estate market does not have a material impact on sales and HSH is positive on replacement/upgrade demand. Its FY24F PER of 10.1x is undemanding.

• FirstCry (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, has filed for a US$700 million IPO. 
• The substantial shareholders are Softbank Group (9984 JP) Vision Fund (25.55% of shares), Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) (10.98%), Premji Invest (10.36%) and Supam Maheshwari – founder and CEO (5.95%).
• The bull case rests on growing addressable markets, strong market positioning, robust GMV growth and strong organic growth.   

• This is our first report on electronics major, Whirlpool Corporation.
• The company delivered a solid third quarter performance in a challenging macro environment, supported by satisfying North American growth and improved cost-management measures.
• The company also successfully achieved $300 million in cost takeout actions, a performance that charts Whirlpool on course to deliver over $800 million of cost takeout actions in 2023.

• This is our first report on cruise operator, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.
• The company achieved record revenue, meeting or exceeding the guidance on all key metrics.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• It is premature to start discussions on stopping raising the hurdles of the Corporate Governance Code when Japan’s boards are not dominated by a majority of independent directors.
• If listed companies are left to voluntarily improve their corporate governance practices, differences in corporate governance practice efforts among listed companies are expected to widen.
• Companies with high percentage of foreign shareholders, primarily those with large market capitalization, are expected to continue to improve their corporate governance practices through engagement by overseas investors. vice versa

• With the Hang Seng Index dipping below the 15,000 mark earlier this week, it’s time to dust off some old school perspective.
• This insight looks at Benjamin Graham’s Net Nets, (current assets less current liabilities), then subtract any debt not included in current liabilities. More simply, current assets less total liabilities.
• Graham would conclude these stocks are priced for liquidation.  Stocks discussed include Brilliance China (1114 HK), Ming Yuan (909 HK), Yidu Tech (2158 HK), and A-Living Smart City (3319 HK).

• Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.
• In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.
• The largest shorts have been built on BYD (1211), XPeng (9868), ICBC (1398), Xiaomi (1810), Link REIT (823), JD.com (9618), Wharf Holdings (4) and New World Development (17). 

• The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
• There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.

• On 24 January, Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment announced that it has received the final approval to open a foreigners-only casino at its Inspire resort complex in Incheon, South Korea.
• This will become the first new foreigners-only casino in Korea in 19 years. Currently, there are 17 foreigners-only casinos in Korea.
• The opening of the Inspire Resort in Incheon, Korea will likely have a negative impact on the foreigners only casino operators in Korea including Paradise Co Ltd (034230 KS).

• We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of…
• We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;
• We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.

• IPAR closed out 2023 with the same momentum that has been generating sales growth the last several years.
• The consumer has been receptive to fragrance and there has been no sign of slowing demand for the category
• IPAR provided preliminary fourth quarter sales of $329 million versus our estimate of $316.5 million. Sales growth within IPAR’s top selling brands was through Coach and Guess

Key points (machine generated)

• YETI is recommended as a short investment for the next few years due to its declining growth and loss of ground to competitors like Stanley Tumbler.
• The sustainability of YETI’s brand advantage is questioned, comparing it to other companies that have failed in the past.
• The author suggests that YETI may face a similar fate if it does not reverse its current trends.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
• That said, we believe the near term impact will be to reduce gross margins; as such, while we are maintaining our 4Q23 top line projections, we are lowering our gross margin projections, which results in increased 4Q losses.
• We believe the negative impact will be localized into FY23 and are leaving our FY24 projections unchanged.

• Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)’s IFA opines that Weiqiao Chuangye’s privatisation offer of HK$3.50 per H Share, a 104.7% premium to the undisturbed price, is fair and reasonable. 
• Despite amassing a blocking stake, Prudence’s ongoing buying supports the view that it intends to play the spread rather than block the deal.
• Despite the offer being below net cash, this is a done deal. At the last close and for the 28 March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.7%/10.2%. 

• Amer Sports (AS US) now aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its US IPO. Proceeds from the listing will be used to pay down debt to the Anta-led consortium.
• Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
• We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• Following the recent Offer for Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), I flagged Pacific Textiles (1382 HK) in Pacific Textiles (1382 HK): Material Benefits as a potential M&A play.
• Also in this space is Texwinca Holdings (321 HK) which is trading down towards its Covid-affected lows.
• Both Pacific Textiles and Texwinca are pursuing a Vietnamese expansion. Texwinca is trading cheaper to Pacific Textiles, is net cash, and has a superior yield.. 

• Government ministries, agencies and the TSE want to raise the value of the Tokyo market, even if it means using the opinions of overseas investors, including activist investors.
• Companies with high foreign ownership and large market capitalization are proactive in corporate governance efforts, while many other companies are passive, indicating that differences in efforts among companies are significant.
• Thanks to the revision of the Corporate Governance Code, corporate governance practices have improved mainly in terms of formal criteria, and now substantive improvements are required.

• Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Guming) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Guming Holdings (Guming) is a maker of freshly-made beverages in China.
• In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
• January is a key month for Build-A-Bear, as the company enjoys material traffic from gift card purchases post-Xmas and almost immediately thereafter shifts to the key Valentine’s Day season.
• As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for BBW.

• Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
• It derives its revenue from personal loans, vehicle finance, sale of goods and store services.
• In recent years, the business has faced both company specific and industry headwinds involving litigation and regulatory scrutiny, but it has worked through those and evolved into a highly regulated, well-run profitable business with a clear strategic direction and multi- layered growth opportunities. 

• FirstCry is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming India IPO.
• FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range.
• We previously discussed the IPO in Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case, Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case and Amer Sports IPO: Valuation First-Look. 
• We revise our forecasts to reflect the FY23 preliminary estimates and long-term growth targets. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is fairly valued at the IPO price range. 

• We believe Hang Seng Index’s tumble was due to a comment in a governmental newspaper.
• BYD announced that it will sell three models of new energy vehicles in Indonesia.
• Trip.com began to sell tickets of scenic locations via the Kuaishou app.

• We identified Kato Sangyo (9869 JP) (Kato) as the most attractive Japanese laggard opportunity due to its net cash balance sheet, undemanding PER, and attractive PEG and P/FCF ratios  
• Management guides for 25% EPS growth in FY24 with only 15% net profit growth, implying a massive share buyback of ~JPY9 billion (5.4% shares in issue) with subsequent cancellation       
• The combination of impending share buybacks, cancellation of existing treasury shares, and dividends equates to 10% shareholder returns in FY24   

• In this insight, we discuss how Temu and AliExpress have been taking away meaningful market share away from Coupang (CPNG US) in Korea in the past year. 
• Temu’s MAU skyrocketed in the past year in Korea. Temu’s MAU surged from zero in January 2023 to 3.28 million as of December 2023.
• One could argue that Coupang’s valuations are overvalued relative to its Chinese competitors such as PDD Holdings (PDD US).

• Amer Sports announced it plans to raise up to $1.8 billion at $16 to $18 per share, targeting a valuation of up to $8.7 billion. 
• We estimate the company to generate revenue of $5.6 billion (up 23.5% YoY) and operating profit of $285.7 million (down 13.7% YoY) in 2024. 
• We would pass on this IPO due to lack of valuation merits, highly leveraged balance sheet, and inconsistent profit margins, despite its solid sales growth in the past several years. 

• GENDA (9166 JP) (GENDA) was listed on the TSE on 28th July 2023. The IPO had been a mix of primary and secondary shares. 
• Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
• Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the pre-IPO shareholders, notably Midas Capital, and the firm’s executives and directors.

• On the 17th January, Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK) announced the pre-conditions – regulatory approvals from NDRC, MoC and SAFE – had been fulfilled. 
• The Composite Document was dispatched this morning (23 January), with an 8th March EGM, and expected payment on or before the 28 March, bang in line with my estimate.  
• Prudence has upped its stake to 10.47%.  IF they were intending to block, they’d stop at just over 10%. Buying any more shares >10% is simply a waste of money.

• Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Guming) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Guming Holdings (Guming) is a maker of freshly-made beverages in China.
• In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• La Francaise des Jeux (FDJ FP) seeks scale in online gaming and betting through a recommended SEK 130 all-cash offer for Kindred Group (KINDSDB SS), 24% premium, SEK 27,951 million implied equity value.
• Minimum  acceptance condition is >90%, which considering irrevocables, requires acceptances from 86.1% of the float. At 8.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, the offer looks slightly cheap vs. the median of comparables. 
• Gross spread is 6.2%, partly due to 10+ months before settlement. Spread should tighten after the Kindred EGM. This deal appears to be a solid bet. Long Kindred.

• China’s catering industry has changed compared to pre-COVID19, where overall average selling price (ASP) is continually under pressure, and customers are increasing seeking value-for-money options due to weaker consumer sentiment. 
• Yum China’s same-store-sales growth could be under pressure if the company cannot raise ASP easily like in previous years. 
• Yum China’s historical valuation should not be used as a benchmark, given that the growth profile has changed (new store openings reaching a plateau; sustained increased competition; lower ASP pressure).