Energy & Materials Sector

• Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments
• Laramide’s flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as well
• Boss Energy’s acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just production

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• Plastic household goods maker Tenma Corp (7958 JP) has been “undervalued” for decades. A variety of activish/activist holders have come and gone. Dalton went substantial in 2016, is 18% now.
• The family has always controlled the company, and in the last decade, the company has bought back shares, raising the family stake. Now they are buying out minorities. 
• The deal is at 4.1x Adjusted EV/EBITDA for March 2026 (adjusted for securities sales, etc) and 0.82x book for the non-cash/securities portion of the business. But Dalton has thrown in.

• KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
• We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.

• Hindustan Copper (HCP IN) India’s only pure-play copper miner – could see earnings surge >60% if current price buoyancy sustains.
• Copper rally appears drive by fundamentals with several large miners such as Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Anglo American (AAL LN) guiding declines.
• Mining costs are largely location-specific and track inflation trends, supporting significant topline buoyancy.

• Zeon will develop BR and Yokohama will make tires with it
•  Facility to be installed at Zeon’s Tokuyama Plant in Shunan City in Japan
• Trial production scheduled for 2026 and mass production by 2030

• Range Resources provided its year-end 2024 results, which reflect a steady operational performance despite challenging natural gas prices.
• The company generated positive free cash flow, enabling it to repurchase shares, distribute dividends, and meet balance sheet targets.
• Range Resources completed its operational program within budget, and its resilience is attributed to low capital intensity, efficient operations, diverse production streams, and a significant liquids business.

• For the week ending 07/Mar, US crude inventories increased by 1.4m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel build. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 62 Bcf for the week ending 07/Mar, lower than analyst expectations of a 46 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• SNB Capital and United Securities cut Aramco’s price targets. TotalEnergies CEO expects LNG prices to decline by decade’s end.

• Norges Bank repurchased sizable stakes in BP, Chevron, Exxon, Halliburton, and SLB after fully exiting these positions in Q3, mirroring its Q2 buying spree.
• Mediolanum International Funds sold its entire BP stake, Westwood Global Investments exited Shell, and Old Mission Capital divested from TotalEnergies.
• BlackRock, State Street, and J.P. Morgan reduced their stakes in Chevron, while BNY Mellon and UBS Group increased their holdings.

• Aramco’s 2024 revenue fell 1% YoY, missing estimates by 7.6%, while net profit dropped 12.4%. EPS missed by 0.3%. Average realized oil prices declined by 4.1%.
• The decline stemmed from weaker crude prices, higher costs, lower refining margins, and reduced income. Total hydrocarbon production fell 3.1% YoY in 2024.
• Saudi Aramco set 2025 dividends at USD 85.4 billion, down 31.1% from 2024. Performance-linked incentives were slashed by 98% to USD 900 million from USD 43.1 billion in 2024.

• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. 
• Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
• A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board’s case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser’s case is strong on post-unification share price, M&A, and franking credits.

• Hello, and welcome back to our weekly editorial on commodities and geopolitics.
• Trump is keeping us busy yet again, threatening to impose another 25 percentage points (which was pulled back a couple of hours later, as usual) on top of the steel and aluminum tariffs, targeting the Canadian car industry at the same time.
• By now, it’s very clear that his main agenda is to move jobs and factories to the U.S. by limiting imports—but the question remains: will he actually follow through?

• GFL is executing a INR 6,000 crore capex plan through FY28 to expand into battery materials, fluorospecialties etc. with commercial production of Battery Chemicals expected to start in Q4 FY25. 
• This marks a strategic shift from a cyclical chemicals business to a high-margin, clean energy materials play positioning GFL at the core of the EV value chain as China+1 sourcing.
• Company is becoming a structural clean-tech growth story. The business could double its revenue base and become global EV materials supplier over the next 3-4 years.

• ArcelorMittal (MT US) reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.
• Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. 
• Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) , Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) 

•  EC publishes 11 commodities’ scenarios including rubber  
• Non-SME operators, dealers tasked with due diligence onus  
• German Rubber Association criticism fails to make impact  

• Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.’s earnings for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 highlighted several critical facets of the company’s recent performance and its outlook.
• The call began with the acknowledgment of substantial challenges faced during 2024, primarily driven by weak demand from key sectors, including automotive and construction, which resulted in the idling of the C6 blast furnace at the Cleveland Works plant.
• The impact of persistently high interest rates and ongoing trade distortions due to overproduction and unfair competition from foreign steel producers also played a significant role in shaping Cleveland-Cliffs’ challenging year.

• After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
• Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (>1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week’s global demand. 
• With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system’s high inventories. 

• AMG Critical Materials | completes repurchase of 40% interest in Graphit Kropfmühl AMG completed the repurchase of a 40% ownership interest in Graphit Kropfmühl and has become the sole owner again of this company.
• Ten years ago, on March 2015, it sold a 40% equity interest in this leading global supplier of high-purity natural graphite to Alterna Capital Partners.
• Comment | In 2012 AMG became the sole owner of GK, a vertically integrated high purity natural graphite business, with mines in Europe, Asia and Africa. 

• Nicola announced that it received the final permit for the 10,000t bulk sample at the Dominion Creek Mineral Project.
• The bulk sample will be processed at Nicola’s Merritt Milling Facility providing a potential third source of ore to the mill as early as Q2/25.
• NIM announced the closing of its non-brokered private placement.

• ONEOK’s Q4 2024 earnings report indicates notable strategic and financial developments over the past year.
• The company reported higher earnings for both the quarter and the full year 2024, with significant contributions from strategic acquisitions and volume growth.
• ONEOK’s financial prospects for 2025 are positive, with an expected earnings growth driven by expanded operations and infrastructure projects.

• Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
• Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
• Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

• At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
• Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
• If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

• In this insight, we discuss how the Homeplus debacle is causing a major negative sentiment on MBK Partners from both the Korean government and the media.
• This negative sentiment has grown so much that it could have a legitimate negative impact in the upcoming proxy vote for the control of Korea Zinc. 
• The Korean government has targeted MBK for tax probe. Plus, a coalition of securities firms is expected to file a lawsuit against Homeplus and MBK. 

• BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. 
• BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  
• Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. 

• MORESCO Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “MORESCO” or “the Company”) is a R&D-oriented company that has developed products boasting market-leading shares in Japan, such as fire-resistant hydraulic fluid for the steel and automotive industries and liquid paraffin used as ingredients in cosmetics, with the aim of achieving domestic production of special lubricants.
• In recent years, the Company has successfully brought to market water soluble die casting lubricants and environmentally friendly hot melt adhesives.
• In addition, it has also gained a leading global share in synthetic lubricants such as high temperature greases and hard disk surface lubricants. 

• The tire majors losing volume   
• Smaller tire makers gaining prominence   
• Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

• • FY24 sales volumes averaged 1,149 boe/d including 139 bbl/d of NGL.
• The NGL sales were higher than we were anticipating (~100 bbl/d) but FY24 production of 1,052 boe/d was impacted by downtime experienced in the Williston Basin in 4Q24 due to extreme weather in the area.
• 4Q24 net production was 829 boe/d (plus NGL that we estimate at 90-100 bbl/d).

• • Valeura hosted an investor trip to its operations in Thailand earlier this month.
• The visit underscored three key aspects: (1) the extensive experience of the management team, (2) the strong relationships with Thai authorities, and (3) the substantial breadth of its assets, offering more potential than previously anticipated.
• • Greg Kulawski, Valeura’s COO, brings extensive experience to the company’s shallow water operations in Thailand.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
• With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.
• TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.

• Oryx Global Partners teams up with former Kenmare Resources MD Michael Carville for takeover bid
• Kenmare Resources operates moma titanium mine in Mozambique, one of the world’s largest producers
• Weak mineral sands market and political upheaval in Mozambique impact company’s operations and valuation, leading to potential takeover bid

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• The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
• The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

• Hanwha Energy, which is 100% owned by the Hanwha Group owner family members, has started the process of going public. Hanwha Energy could complete its IPO in 2025/2026. 
• One of the scenarios involving Hanwa Energy is that once it completes its IPO, it could merge with Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS). 
• Hanwha Energy generated revenue of 4.7 trillion won (up 20% YoY) and operating profit of 215 billion won (up 306.5% YoY). 

• Back on the 2nd Dec 2024, De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold projects, announced a merger with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
• Northern Star offered 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity upon a successful Scheme, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 16th April. Expected implementation on the 5th May. The IE (KPMG) says fair & reasonable.

• For the week ending 07/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices surged by 14.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and supply constraints.
• Henry Hub posted its biggest weekly gain since January, hitting a 26-month high during the week ending 07/Mar. Prices closed above the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
• Henry Hub OI PCR was 1.00 on 07/Mar, unchanged from 28/Feb. Call OI rose by 8.7% WoW, while put OI grew by 8.6%.

• WTI futures fell by 3.9% for the week ending 07/Mar, marking its seventh consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, rising U.S. crude inventories, and demand concerns.
• The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592, ending a five-week gain streak, with oil rigs unchanged at 486 and gas rigs down by one to 101.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.91 on 07/Mar from 0.98 on 28/Feb. Call OI increased by 13.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 5.3%.

• Geopolitical risk and central bank purchases continue to support gold demand, but rising Treasury yields present headwinds. Physical imports to the U.S. are plateauing, easing supply constraints.
• Gold prices are facing resistance at USD 3,000/oz, with technical indicators suggesting potential consolidation before further upside. Historical patterns indicate similar conditions led to stagnant prices.
• Gold leasing rates have normalized, signaling reduced supply stress. Previous spikes above 5% indicated a temporary supply shock, but the recent decline suggests a more balanced market.

• Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). 
• Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  
• We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.

• We maintain our Outperform recommendation on YPF. Shale Expansion, Export Capacity Growth Key to Long-Term Performance
• YPF posted weak 4Q24 results. Adjusted EBITDA dropping 38.6% QoQ and 22.5% YoY to $839 million, missing consensus by 19.7%.
• YPF reaffirmed confidence in its strategic execution, achieving key milestones in shale operations, mature fields divestments, and fuel pricing adjustments.

• Brent oil price is currently 7% below fair value with short-term technical indicators in oversold territory
• Forecast predicts Brent oil to average $73 in 2025, with a surplus in global oil market of 1.3 million barrels per day
• Market consensus diverges from forecast, with disagreements on oil balances and optimism towards non-OPEC supply growth

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• On 10 March, Young Poong (000670 KS) announced that it plans to cancel all of its treasury shares and conduct a 10-to-1 stock split.
• Driven by the treasury shares cancellation and stock split, Young Poong’s share price rose 8.9% to 489,000 won today (10 March 2025). 
• Our updated NAV of Young Poong suggests NAV per share of 834,064 per share, representing a 71% upside from current levels.

• COAL’s production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future
• Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability
• Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds

• Output hits 2.04 million tons and exports 1.6 million tons in 2024  
• ANRPC anticipates Indo rubber production to slip by 9.8% in 2025  
• Chinese tire firms pitching tent in Indo may benefit from trade war

• Although the environment was challenging (still bad weather conditions and higher comps), the Cement Industry’s quarterly results were better than expected.
• Higher costs were compensated by the companies’ efficiencies and higher prices in local currencies, resulting in the sector’s margin expansion.
• Total revenues in 4Q24 decreased by 5% YoY, while total EBITDA dropped 3% YoY.

• Strong 4Q24 caps off a year of continuous improvement. RYAM reported 4Q24 results that included record EBITDA of $62 million in its HPC division despite lower revenue on reduced sales of commodity products.
• For the year, the company delivered $222 million in EBITDA and 13.4% EBITDA margin, up significantly from 2023 EBITDA of $139 million and 8.3% EBITDA margin, reflecting the positive outcome of management’s decision to reduce exposure to commodity markets and invest in growth of specialty businesses, especially in Biomaterials.
• The strong results came despite still soft acetates demand and only modest growth in ethers, as margins benefited from cost optimization investments that resulted in lower unit production costs and optimized efficiencies.

• ARQ management was upbeat during the 2024 results call. ASPs have been on the rise and ARQ is expanding into new end- use markets: (1) cost initiatives are bearing fruit;
• (2) Phase 1 granular activated carbon (GAC) expansion is on track and production could exceed nameplate capacity;
• (3) ARQ is positioned for future expansion with its strong balance sheet and cash flow

• Q3 FY3/25 results showed strong OP recovery (+23.3% YoY), fuelled by price hikes, volume expansion, and cost reduction efforts.
• Although the OP run rate was 60% of the full-year target, relatively low for Q3, reflecting one-off costs, FY3/25 guidance was maintained.
• By segment, Films was the largest contributor to segment OP growth (+11.5x YoY), followed by Functional Textiles and Trading, which reduced its segment operating loss. 

• Real alpha? Tight basket means outsized passive flows. The play? SK Innovation, no contest.
• Samsung SDI faces -0.54x ADTV outflows. Other movers: Netmarble 0.68x, Wemade Max 0.54x, NHN -0.46x ADTV.
• Net-Net? SK Innovation is the trade. Long here, hedge short on Samsung SDI or the broader Battery space.

• Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.
• Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price
• Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at <1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. 

• Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) , a gold mining company in China, raised around US$363m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
• It operates six gold mines in Asia and Africa and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2004.
• We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• The Nifty snapped its losing streak with a sharp rebound, rising 1.92% for the week.
• Implied volatility struggled to hold up, trading lower through most of the week.
• We break down the implied vs. historic vol relationship and what it signals for traders.

• Gensol clarified that debt woes are because of short term liability mismatch which contradicts with Lender’s clarification
• Promoter said they will buy from the open market and will also infuse money into company but their recent stake sale again contradicts.
• 2nd CFO Resignation within 6 months further raises alarm over governance issues.

• Play on rising aluminium demand. Aluminium demand has outpaced supply with strong Chinese demand. 
• Management has guided better margins at Novelis which faced a temporary drop in margins due to scrap shortages.
• Hindalco’s Indian operations are fully integrated with captive bauxite, alumina and to certain extent for energy. Trades at a 20%+ discount to its historic PE multiples.

• NACL posted its best ever quarterly performance in 3QFY25, driven by a sharp spike in alumina prices. Alumina prices have since cooled off but remain elevated at above US$450/t
• NACL is set to expand its alumina capacity by 33% over the next 12 months. This will help double its external alumina sales from 1mt to 2mt. 
• Trades at 25% discount to historic PE of 13x despite record earnings, healthy balance sheet and strong near-term volume growth driven by brownfield expansion.

• Jai Corp Ltd (JFI IN) allegedly misappropriated INR2,434 crore from investors, diverted funds offshore, and engaged in fraudulent trading, triggering CBI probe into financial misconduct, money laundering, illegal stock manipulation.
• The Bombay High Court directed a CBI investigation after allegations surfaced of fake exports, foreign currency loan diversion, and fund rotation through shell companies in Mauritius and Jersey.
• Jai Corp claims no official notice of the FIR yet but pledges full cooperation; investors await regulatory actions from SEBI, RBI, and ED, which could impact the company’s financial standing.

• On 7 March, the Seoul Central District Court ruled that it is reasonable for Korea Zinc to maintain the concentrated voting system, which should favor Chairman Choi and his allies.
• On the other hand, the court also ruled that Korea Zinc was wrong to restrict Young Poong’s voting rights which should be favorable to MBK/Young Poong alliance. 
• The fact that the court has allowed concentrated voting system would mean the M&A of Korea Zinc will continue. 

• BHP stock affected by fat finger incident causing rapid drop in share price
• Ex dividend date for BHP, investors may miss out on dividend payment if purchased on or after ex dividend date
• Order for 750,000 BHP shares at higher price causes market disruption, shows impact of large trades on stock price fluctuations.

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• For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• Aramco’s 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.

• Newmont Corporation’s latest financial results and strategic roadmap indicate both challenges and opportunities inherent in its operations.
• The company’s leadership discussed its focus on integration, rationalization, and stabilization of assets following recent acquisitions and portfolio re-alignment.
• In 2024, Newmont embarked on significant transformations, focusing on three core areas: integrating newly acquired assets, rationalizing its portfolio, and stabilizing its business amid dynamic gold market demands and industry challenges.

• The developer of international green fertiliser projects today announced the signing of non-binding Heads of Terms with Hy24’s managed Clean H2 Infra Fund for an up to US$115m investment in the Villeta project in Paraguay.
• Under the proposal, the Clean H2 Infra Fund will become the anchor and lead equity investor in relation to the Company’s flagship 260,000 tonnes p.a. green fertiliser project.
• The agreement marks a significant milestone towards Final Investment Decision. 

• Teck Resources Limited’s fourth quarter and full-year results for 2024 highlight significant operational and financial shifts following strategic changes within the company.
• The sale of their steelmaking coal business marked a pivotal transformation, repositioning Teck as a focused player in energy transition metals, primarily copper and zinc.
• This strategic divestment yielded USD 8.6 billion, enabling unprecedented cash returns to shareholders, totaling $1.8 billion in 2024.

• The FY24 production had been reported previously.
• Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025.
• The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province.

• • The Bourdon exploration well has encountered approximately 34 metres of net oil pay within a 45-metre column in the Gamba reservoir formation, representing the largest hydrocarbon column discovered to date at Dussafu.
• • Prior to drilling, Bourdon was expected to hold around 5.1 mmbbl prospective resources, net to Panoro’s WI • An appraisal side-track could be drilled to better assess the size of the discovery.
• Depending on the extent of the find, it could be developed as either a subsea tieback or a new development.

• Vietnam rakes in US$3.4 billion from rubber exports in 2024  
• Impressive surge in exports to Malaysia and Europe  
• Chinese tire firm undertakes third phase of expansion in Vietnam

• JX Advance has announced the terms for its IPO and set the pricing at ¥810-820 per share, at a much lower pricing range than previously expected ¥862 per share.
• ENEOS is planning to offer 465.2m shares at the IPO raising around ¥377-381bn (US$2.5bn) at a market capitalisation and EV of ¥760bn and ¥857bn respectively.
• Our SOTP valuation suggests that JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s shares are priced reasonably, however, given the negative sentiment over AI and tech stocks, we remain cautious.

• Gensol Engineering (GENSOL IN)’s credit rating was downgraded to default, triggering a 34% stock decline in just five days. ICRA flagged misleading financial disclosures, high promoter pledges raised serious concerns.
• The company is grappling with delayed debt repayments, aggressive accounting policies, and uncertainty in equity infusion, impacting its ambitious EV manufacturing and solar EPC expansion plans.
• Gensol’s governance issues, cross-default risks, and financial opacity create a high-risk scenario for investors. Management must provide clarity on debt servicing, pledged shares, and capital infusion to restore confidence.

•  One in five companies in rubber industry mulling shifting in 2025  
• Regulatory burdens and high energy costs among major concerns  
•  Place ‘first-touch principle’ in EUDR, erase reverse burden of proof  

• Vale Indonesia’s Q4/24 results came in -28% below expectations driven mainly by a revenue decline, as core costs fell, and other expenses and net financing income rose
• The revenue drop was from by a -7.1% decline in volume and -11.5% drop in the nickel matte price, while fuel efficiency improved and fuel costs dropped overall
• The P/B continued to slide in Q4/24 to 0.82, along with an ROE down to 1.0%, but even given the inexpensive multiple, weak nickel could weigh on the stock

• Alamos Gold’s latest financial performance and potential future trajectory present a mixed picture of strength and challenges.
• The company recently completed a successful year, marked by the acquisition of the Magino mine and the expansion into the Quebec region, establishing a strong foundation for future operations.
• The acquisition of the Magino mine, adjacent to a high-grade Island Gold operation, stands out as an important strategic move that aims to create one of Canada’s largest and most cost-effective gold mining operations.

• Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• Nicola announced that it received a draft permit for the 10,000t bulk sample at the Dominion Creek Mineral Project.
• As a reminder, NIM owns a 75% economic interest in the high-grade gold and silver project with its partner High Range Exploration owning the remaining.
• The bulk sample will be processed at Nicola’s Merritt Milling Facility providing a potential third source of ore to the mill by Q3/25.

• Nutrien’s recent financial results and strategic outlook provide a complex picture of the company’s current standing and future prospects.
• In 2024, Nutrien achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion, reflecting the challenges and opportunities presented by varying market conditions.
• The year saw a decrease in fertilizer prices, which negatively impacted overall earnings despite higher volumes and improved downstream retail performance.

• Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.’s recent earnings report provides a complex picture of its financial performance and strategic initiatives during 2024.
• Positively, the company reported resilience in a tough market, achieving strong financial results through strategic decisions and acquisitions.
• The company’s non-GAAP earnings per share for 2024 were $15.92, demonstrating benefits from targeted growth strategies, diverse market penetration, and strict pricing discipline.

• MEC’s (4971 JP) reported FY24 (Dec year-end) results, producing OP of ¥4,562mil (+83.0% YoY) on sales of ¥18,234mil (+30.1% YoY).
• FY24 Chemical segment sales rose +27.0% YoY to ¥17,478mil, thanks to 1) a steady increase in demand for chemicals used in high-end packages, and 2) a gradual recovery in demand associated with PCs, smartphones, and general servers.
• MEC is guiding for FY25 1H OP of ¥2,250mil (-4.8% YoY) on sales of ¥9,600mil (+8.1% YoY), and full-year OP of ¥5,000mil (+9.6% YoY) on sales of ¥20,000mil (+9.7% YoY).

• The demerger of three verticals will separate biopharma and profitable spirits from bio-based specialties and performance chemicals will be the catalyst for the company.
• The expansion in potable spirits, set for completion by March 2025, is expected to drive growth in this segment, alongside anticipated recovery in the core chemical business.
• The Potable spirits segment accounted for 45% of revenue but contributed 58% of EBITDA margins, benefiting from backward integration that drives higher margins.

• After January’s strong gains in the metals and mining markets, February saw further growth across spot prices with the equities lagging due to cautious investor sentiment.
• In February, gold hit all-time highs up 3.4%, silver was up 0.8%, and copper up 6.1%.
• The equities underperformed compared to the metals, with the GDX up 1.9%, GDXJ up 0.5%, and SIL up 0.3%.

• Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)  reported FY24 revenues of $2.3 billion and profits of $374 million, reflecting declines of 3% and 25%, respectively, consistent with expectations amid lower coal prices.
• The company will encounter higher costs in FY25 as the B40 biodiesel mandate takes effect. This is expected to put pressure on margins for all coal producers.
• Alongside declining coal prices, we anticipate profits will fall to $250-300 million. This positions the stock at an FY25 PE of 5- 6.5x with a 12-13% dividend yield.

• Omai announced assay results from the final three drill holes as part of its 26-hole 13,716m 2024 drill campaign.
• All three holes intersected strong mineralization with the highlight being 5.21 g/t Au over 19.3m, including two higher-grade sections.
• Results are pending for an additional 8 holes at Wenot drilled this year as part of the 10,000m 2025 drill program.

• Weak 4Q24 results, rising leverage, and lack of a clear plan heighten credit concerns.
• We downgrade Pemex to Underperform. In our view, the absence of a clear financial plan under the current circumstances significantly undermines Pemex’s management credibility in addressing its serious debt challenges.
• From a credit perspective, results were marked by a 27.1% sequential decline in LTM adjusted EBITDA, while total debt decreased by $2.1 billion.