Energy & Materials Sector

• FY25 is the trough: weak smelter ramp (3–39%) and export ban drive losses; recovery depends on utilisation >50% in FY26.
• FY26 mining strong, smelter unclear: 220 kt Cu and 579 koz Au guided, but smelter repairs run through H1’26.
• Index risk rising: gold share <20% puts AMMN at high risk of GDX/MVGDX exclusion, with US$140–200m passive outflows.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
• Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction

• In the second quarter of 2025, Chevron Corporation delivered a robust financial performance, reflecting strategic accomplishments and operational efficiency.
• The company reported earnings of $2.5 billion, equating to $1.45 per share, with adjusted earnings amounting to $3.1 billion or $1.77 per share.
• Several notable factors, including special items and foreign currency effects, impacted the earnings.

• CNX Resources Corporation reported its third-quarter 2025 results, discussing operational and financial metrics, including notable buybacks and strategic acquisitions.
• The company showed robust free cash flow, which facilitated a significant stock repurchase, evidencing a strong belief in its valuation relative to intrinsic worth.
• This buyback was the largest since the fourth quarter of 2022, underscoring the company’s strategic focus on returning value to shareholders.

• Sagar Cements is pursuing an aggressive, debt-fueled expansion strategy to increase its capacity and market reach, particularly in Central and Eastern India, aiming to capitalize on anticipated demand growth from infrastructure and housing sectors.
• The company’s financial performance is under significant pressure, characterized by revenue growth offset by severe margin compression, leading to net losses and negative free cash flow in recent periods. This has necessitated the suspension of its dividend.
• Key challenges for the company include managing its high debt levels, navigating the intensely competitive and cyclical nature of the Indian cement industry, and mitigating the impact of volatile input costs on its already strained profitability.

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• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.
• We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
• This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. 
• There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we expect a one-way flow of US$175mm for December 2025.

• Total earnings in nine months of 2025 surge by 38% to US$549 million  
• Domestic consumption surges 102% year-on-year to 86,539 tons  
• New highly productive clones set to hit plantations, boosting sector  

• SAEL Industries Ltd (2600245D IN) (SIL) is looking to raise about US$516m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Ambit, ICICI, Kotak and JM Fin.
• SIL is a vertically integrated renewable energy independent power producer in India having capabilities for solar module manufacturing, engineering, procurement and construction, and operations and maintenance for power projects.
• According to CRISIL, SIL was among the top five Indian vertically-integrated renewable energy independent power producers, with in-house solar module manufacturing, based on operational capacity as of June 30, 2025.

• The Lundin family has a long history in the mining industry, with a focus on creating long-term value through exploration, building, and production.
• They prioritize shareholder and stakeholder value, with a commitment to being responsible owners and staying invested in their projects until they see returns.
• They emphasize the importance of enduring assets that can withstand multiple market cycles and provide opportunities for long-term success in the mining industry.

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• 3Q25 marks a clear earnings inflection, with record revenue, strong EBITDA growth, and underlying net profit above ₩250 bn after adjusting for one-off derivative losses.
• TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength drive upgrades, lifting FY25–27 EBITDA/EPS by 8–20% and establishing a higher structural margin base.
• Overnance resolution and treasury cancellations offer re-rating potential, with a target price of ₩1.52 mn implying ~27% upside.

• The 3Q25 production and cash position at the end of September had been previously disclosed.
• November production to date has averaged 24,537 bbl/d, exceeding the 3Q25 average of ~23 mbbl/d.
• The FY25 production guidance of 23-25.5 mbbl/d has been re-iterated.

• Golden Sovereign Mines (GSM) is a pre-IPO opportunity to invest in a gold consolidation vehicle focused on the toll treatment of ore mined by African artisanal miners.
• The company is adopting a proven business model that has been well tested in Africa.
• The rollout of GSM’s strategy is well timed, as many African nations are creating national action plans to transform the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) gold sector.

• Blackbird 2.60p £11.91m (BIRD.L) The developer of the browser-based collaborative video editor elevate.io, today launches AI image generation within elevate.io.
• At the same time, a token system will be added to the platform allowing users to redeem tokens for services.
• Further User Interface enhancements have also been released including thumbnails on the timeline and larger video tracks. 

• DT Midstream (DTM) delivered a robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, exemplifying its strength in executing strategic growth initiatives and optimizing operational efficiencies.
• The company raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint by 18% compared to the prior year, reaching $1.13 billion, and reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook.
• This increase underscores DTM’s successful adaptation to changing market dynamics and its ability to leverage its infrastructure for higher profitability.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is up 101% on its 29th September listing. By my estimate, Zijin Mining (601899 CH)‘s average premium to NAV since Zijin Gold’s listing has been ~21%. 
• Preceding further commentary on Zijin Mining/Gold are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Limited (0198068D IN) (EPPL) is looking to raise about US$327m in its India IPO.
• EPPL is a vertically-integrated solar PV module and cell manufacturer in India, with operations spanning the solar PV modules production cycle from solar cell production to solar PV module assembly.
• In this note, we have a look at the company’s past performance, as well as talk about the peer comp and implied valuations in the price range.

• Rox Resources (RXL AU) is looking to raise around US$131m from a primary placement.
• This is a large deal to digest, representing 281.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 58.4% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation reported its third quarter 2025 financial and operating results, demonstrating a strong performance with notable production growth.
• The company achieved a record quarterly production rate of 100,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase.
• The production gains were particularly significant in the Giddings area, where oil production rose by nearly 5% compared to the previous year.

• What you need to know: • DNG reported Q3 financial results that were mixed relative to our expectations, missing on production results and beating on financials.
• • Q3 revenue was $100.5M compared to our estimate of $89.7M, and Q3 OCF (before WC) was $6.6M compared to our estimate of $4.7M.
• • Management maintained its annual guidance for production, revenue, and net income but does not expect to hit its capex guidance.

• * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP.
• ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) or similar announcement has been made.
• ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement.

• Sales in Q3 FY12/25 were JPY785.9bn, down 2.7% YoY, with a 1.6% decline on a local currency basis.
• Operating profit increased by 18.9% YoY to JPY40.5bn, driven by strong shipments and cost control measures.
• Net income attributable to owners rose 104.4% YoY to JPY21.7bn, aided by extraordinary gains and reduced losses.

• For 3Q25, Gevo achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of $6.7 million. 
• This exceeded FactSet consensus analyst forecasts for $5.2 million and marked its second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
• Gevo North Dakota alone contributed $17.8 million in adjusted EBITDA. 

• Revenue increased by 0.7% YoY, driven by higher product prices and increased sales in the aerospace industry.
• Operating profit declined by 36.0% YoY due to lower sales volumes and higher SG&A expenses, despite inventory valuation gains.
• The company revised its full-year earnings forecast downward, citing continued demand weakness in the semiconductor production equipment industry.

• MBK Partners acquired an additional 2.7% stake in Korea Zinc raising its total ownership to 39.7%. This is likely to fuel additional positive share price momentum on Korea Zinc.
• This is likely to rekindle a potential M&A fight for the management control of the company. 
• This additional additional purchase of Korea Zinc by MBK Partners is a signal, not noise. Another M&A fight is likely in the next AGM in March 2026. 

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) — Second Guidance Upgrade; Margin Expansion Accelerates, Momentum Builds
• Focus businesses now contribute nearly half of operating profit, reinforcing structural earnings quality.
• JX Advanced Metals trades at ~22× FY26E P/E and ~13× EV/EBITDA, reflecting premium growth exposure but still below Japanese specialty materials peers (Tokyo Ohka ~26×, Entegris ~45×).

• Global copper demand is stabilising after months of weakness, even as inventories thin out. The ICSG now expects a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
• A softer dollar and expectations of continued Fed easing are improving the backdrop for commodities. The copper–gold ratio sits near 30-year lows, signalling room for mean reversion.
• The bullish setup hinges on growth holding up and exceeding the rate of growth of China. Electrification to be the biggest driver.

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
• We have discussed weekly since 10/14/25 how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, coinciding with the 50-day MA; this remains true.
• Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) held above $358-$361 and $41.70 supports and appear ready to resume their long-term uptrends. Recently discussed we were buyers in our October 29th report

• We analyse Champion Iron (CIA AU) after improvements in its operations in Q2FY26. The company destocked 477k tons and is down to 1.7 million tons to further reduce the stockpile.
• The company also saw an improvement in its realized iron ore price (to 128 CAD/ton or 19% YoY) as it reduced its contractual arrangements for material. 
• Despite the improvement in operational performance, which will drive profitability up 52% YoY, the stock trades at 11.7x FY26 PE and is fairly valued. We prefer Fenix Resources (FEX AU) 

• What you need to know: • Omai’s long hole hits multiple zones of mineralization, confirming strong gold grades ~700m below the previously lowest known mineralization at Wenot.
• • This result suggests a doubling of the size potential of Wenot, proving to investors (and potential acquirers) that the Omai system can support a very long mine life at a high throughput.
• • Drilling continues to accelerate with five drills turning at Wenot and YTD meterage over 30,000m (double the 15,000m originally planned).

• Soosan Industries is a key player in the South Korean power plant maintenance sector, specializing in essential services for the nation’s nuclear and thermal power generation facilities. The company is positioned to benefit from the government’s renewed focus on nuclear energy as a cornerstone of its long-term electricity supply plan.
• The company exhibits attractive valuation metrics, with a low price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratio compared to the broader market. This, combined with a consistent dividend history, may appeal to value-oriented investors.
• Recent financial performance indicates top-line pressure and margin contraction, reflecting potential cyclicality and a competitive operating environment. Future growth is heavily tied to securing new maintenance contracts and the execution of the national energy strategy, which includes both the extension of life for existing plants and the construction of new ones.

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• Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) is looking to raise at least US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• • The M-5 vertical well at Mateguafa Attic encountered approximately 26 feet of net oil pay in high-quality Guadalupe sandstone (22% porosity), along with an additional 11 feet in the Carbonera C7 formation.
• The discovery will contribute new reserves, as none had previously been attributed to Mateguafa Attic.
• • The well was brought online in the Guadalupe interval, delivering a gross oil rate of 570 bbl/d with an 8% water cut on a tight 17/128 choke.

• Crude oil futures were sliding lower Wednesday with benchmarks failing to hold the early-week gains as traders eyed the impact of Russian sanctions against the supply glut.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.63/b (2151 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $65.15/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.40/b against a previous close of $61.04/b.
• Sentiment had improved at the start of the week with the US government shutdown set to end, while tighter sanctions on Russia have started to disrupt supplies.

• FMC is a global leader in the crop protection market, with a strong, patent-protected portfolio, particularly in high-value insecticides. The company’s pure-play focus on agricultural sciences distinguishes it from more diversified peers.
• The company is currently navigating a severe industry-wide downturn caused by unprecedented inventory destocking in key channels, which has significantly impacted recent revenue and profitability. This cyclical headwind is masking underlying end-user demand.
• Management has initiated a strategic growth plan and restructuring program aimed at navigating the current challenges, driving cost savings, and capitalizing on the eventual market normalization. Future growth is expected to be driven by new product launches from its R&D pipeline and expansion in its Plant Health (biologicals) business.

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• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Fosun International
• A group of moderate Senate Democrats have reportedly agreed to support a deal to re-open the US government as well as fund some departments and agencies for the next year, which could end the government shutdown.
• Under the agreement, Congress would pass full-year funding for the departments of Agriculture, Veteran Affairs and Congress, while funding other agencies until 30 January 2026.

• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly higher on growing optimism that the US government shutdown was close to ending, while Iraqi output could be under after Lukoil declared force majeure at the West Qurna-2 oilfield.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.07/b (2130 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.63/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.14/b against a previous close of $59.75/b.
• Prices ticked higher Monday after the US Senate on Sunday passed the first stage of a deal that would end the government shutdown, underpinning the broader financial risk-on sentiment.

• US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.
• Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.
• Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.

• Celanese is a global leader in the production of acetyl products and high-performance engineered polymers, holding strong market positions in both segments. However, the company is currently navigating significant headwinds, including a high debt load from the Mobility & Materials acquisition and weak demand in key end markets like automotive and construction.
• Recent financial performance has been challenged, highlighted by a significant drop in net income and large impairment losses. In response, management is aggressively focused on cost reduction, increasing cash flow to deleverage the balance sheet, and driving growth through its Engineered Materials pipeline.
• The forward outlook balances the risks of a cyclical downturn and increased competition against an attractive valuation and management’s strategic actions to streamline operations. The company projects $1 to $2 of EPS growth in 2026, driven by cost savings and new business, suggesting potential for recovery if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

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• Westlake Chemical is navigating a challenging period in the cyclical commodity chemicals market, evidenced by recent financial performance, including net losses in the first three quarters of 2025. Margin compression from volatile global markets and inflationary pressures has significantly impacted profitability.
• Strategically, the company is expanding its value-added offerings through acquisitions, such as the planned purchase of ACI/Perplastic Group. This move aims to bolster its specialty materials portfolio within the Housing and Infrastructure Products (HIP) segment, providing a potential buffer against the volatility of its Performance and Essential Materials (PEM) segment.
• Despite near-term earnings pressure and negative free cash flow, Westlake has demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, consistently increasing its dividend per share over the past decade. The company’s vertically integrated model and access to cost-advantaged North American feedstock provide a durable competitive advantage.

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• Iron ore rebounded as supply tightened, and trade sentiment improved, though weak demand and margin pressure capped gains.
• Managed money participants increased their net long positions across all futures and options expiries, signalling renewed confidence in the bullish trend.
• The DCE-SGX spread’s climb above key MAs signals firm bullish momentum, though sustained strength remains crucial.

• Innovation Global Industries (IGI) is a leading provider of industrial automation and robotics solutions, poised to capitalize on the secular growth trends of Industry 4.0 and smart manufacturing. The company has a strong track record of innovation and a well-established presence in the high-growth Asia-Pacific market.
• We anticipate robust top-line growth for IGI, driven by increasing demand for automation across various sectors, including electronics, automotive, and logistics. The company’s focus on developing advanced robotics and AI-powered solutions positions it at the forefront of the industry’s technological evolution.
• While the near-term outlook is positive, potential risks include intensifying competition from both established players and new entrants, supply chain disruptions, and the cyclical nature of industrial capital expenditure. Margin pressure could also arise from rising input costs and the need for continued R&D investment to maintain a competitive edge.

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• Transocean’s latest financial results and strategic movements depict a company actively refining its operations to align with market conditions and future needs.
• The company reported strong third-quarter numbers, highlighting solid operational performance, cost reductions, and significant progress in deleveraging.
• Positively, Transocean reduced its debt by approximately $1.2 billion for the year with a focus on improving its capital structure.

• Emmvee Photovoltaic has filed RHP for IPO with a total offer size of up to INR 29B, offering 133.6M shares at a price band of INR 206-INR 221 per share.
• This includes a fresh issue of INR 21.4B (~ 98.8M shares). The company intends to use the proceeds for debt repayment and general corporate purpose.
• Our recommendation would be that investors can buy into this issue as the valuation range looks relatively cheap when compared to peers.

• With the review period complete, we forecast 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI 1000 Index at the December rebalance.
• We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.15% for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 10.22% for the CSI1000 Index. Gross round-trip trade across both indices is CNY 73.4bn (US$10.3bn).
• The outright forecast adds have outperformed the outright forecast deletes over the last 6 months with most of the outperformance coming between June and August.

• CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company. It is the global leader of nickel-based and cobalt-based pCAM (cathode) for lithium-ion batteries.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• Mitsui Chemicals is slashing exposure to commodity chemicals and ramping up high-margin specialty films and resins—setting the stage for its RoE to soar from 5% to over 13%.
• Restructuring is unlocking massive cost savings while driving growth from cutting-edge segments that are poised for double-digit growth and global dominance.
• The stock trades at a deep discount, but could easily command a premium with solid execution, driving the share price to more than double or even treble within 3 years.

• CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK), a new energy materials company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$507 million.
• I discussed the H Share listing in CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
• The proposed AH discount range of 36.9% to 29.9% (based on the 7 November A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.

• Trough valuations: JFE trades at only US$525/t EV/t and 0.5× P/B, despite stable guidance and improving high-value steel mix.
• Hidden value: 15% JSW Steel stake (~¥500 bn) equals ~45% of JFE’s market cap—cheap India exposure with re-rating potential.
• Upside case: SOTP implies +50–60% equity upside, supported by 4–5% dividend yield and H2 margin recovery.

• Dupont (DD) spin off its electronics business, Qnity (Q), early this week.

• DQnity will be one of the world’s largest pure-play electronic materials companies, with a portfolio spanning semiconductor fabrication materials and advanced electronics/interconnect solutions.

• Qnity’s Semiconductor Technologies division creates consumable products that are used during semiconductor manufacturing.

• Beautiful Skew still AWOL/MIA. The wider the spread, the worse the result. 
• Large SOE H vs A generally strong.  Strong net inflow into SOE Hs via SOUTHBOUND.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• The company has halted operations, laid off most staff, and initiated a strategic review with seven employees remaining.
• Insiders, owning over 20% of shares, are incentivized to unlock value through liquidation, reverse merger, or sale.
• A resolution from the strategic review is expected by year-end or early 2026, with ample margin of safety.

• Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade
• Risk is elevated as bearish divergences  and rolling tops abound
• No top yet signalled in the major US indices –  so what to do in this environment 

• Crude oil futures nudged higher Friday but were heading for a second week of losses, albeit modest, with the market unable to shake off the gloom surrounding predictions of a massive oversupply in Q1.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.72/b (2005 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.38/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.84/b against a previous close of $59.53/b.
• The oversupply narrative amid soaring supplies and tepid demand growth has taken hold of markets this week, overshadowing geopolitical concerns.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently 14 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Record margins sustained: Q2 FY26 EBITDA ₹1,932 cr; full-year margins near 49% on captive coal and lower caustic costs.
• Growth visibility: 1 Mtpa 5th-stream alumina refinery to commission by Jun 2026; Pottangi mine start by FY27.
• Valuation gap: Trades at ~4× EV/EBITDA vs 6–7× peers, with ₹7,900 cr cash and 4.5% yield supporting 25–30% re-rating potential.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has pulled back 25% from its recent highs, as iron ore prices have fallen 6% from their highs, amid the Simandou project nearing completion. 
• Despite the negative sentiment, with steel mill margins hovering around -300 RMB/ton, we still see iron ore at 95-110 USD/ton, as China’s imports were a record in September. 
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making 

• The US administration’s addition of copper to the critical minerals list, with a likelihood of a blanket 15% levy, has widened the spread between COMEX and LME once again. 
• Earlier, Trump had destroyed the spread in July by backtracking on the 50% tariff on copper, limiting it to value-added (see: COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great). 
• We are bullish on copper. Recent supply shocks will push prices upwards to 12k USD/ton by year-end (Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton )

• Seadrill has emerged from restructuring with a strengthened balance sheet and a strategic focus on its high-specification, modern fleet of offshore drilling rigs, positioning it to capitalize on the current industry upcycle.
• The company has demonstrated commercial success by securing over $300 million in new contracts in Q3 2025, contributing to a robust order backlog of approximately $2.5 billion, which provides significant revenue visibility into 2026.
• Despite a favorable market outlook with rising dayrates, Seadrill faces challenges including recent quarterly net losses, high operational risks, and intense competition, underscoring the inherent volatility of the offshore drilling sector.

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• Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.
• Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.
• Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.

• Crude oil futures drifting amid choppy trade Thursday before regaining some ground after benchmarks broke out of the recent trading range to test two-week lows, although surging gasoil cracks were lending some support.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.45/b (2100 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $63.52/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.54/b against a previous close of $59.60/b.
• Crude retreated midweek as concerns over a supply glut in Q1 continued to weigh on sentiment, with demand growth seen falling well short of fresh supply this year and next.

• Philex Mining is at a critical transition point, shifting focus from its maturing Padcal mine to the large-scale Silangan copper-gold project, which is the primary driver for future value. The successful execution and commissioning of Silangan, expected by Q1 2026, is paramount to the investment thesis.
• The company’s financial performance has been impacted by the natural decline of the Padcal mine and volatile commodity prices, leading to decreased revenues and negative free cash flow in recent periods. Future financial health is heavily dependent on the production ramp-up at Silangan and a favorable commodity price environment.
• While the long-term outlook for copper is robust, driven by the global energy transition, and the gold market remains strong due to macroeconomic uncertainty, Philex faces significant near-term risks. These include project execution risks at Silangan (cost overruns, delays), commodity price volatility, and the evolving regulatory and fiscal landscape for mining in the Philippines.

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• We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.
• Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.
• 3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
• Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
• Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.

• Meren is uniquely positioned as a disciplined, cash-generative independent E&P focused on offshore African assets. 
• Current production is from deepwater Nigerian assets that have high netbacks and generate cash flows to fund both a $100-million annual base dividend and organic growth. 
• Meren has significant exposure to the world-class Orange Basin discoveries offshore Namibia and South Africa. 

• Phillips 66 delivered a performance in its third-quarter 2025 results characterized by strong operational execution across its diverse business segments despite some challenges.
• The company, under the leadership of CEO Mark Lashier, continues to focus strategically on strengthening its core operations, particularly in refining and midstream activities.
• A notable highlight of the quarter was the high utilization rate of the refining segment, achieving 99% – the highest since 2018, which reflects effective operational management aimed at maximizing outputs from existing capacities.

• Range Resources Corporation recently reported its third-quarter 2025 financial outcomes, demonstrating both strengths and challenges within its operations.
• The company’s financial performance showed a consistent execution of its strategic plan, with an all-in capital expenditure of $190 million resulting in a production output of approximately 2.2 Bcf equivalent per day.
• This performance aligns with Range Resources’ year-to-date investment of $491 million, keeping it on target with the annual guidance range of $650 million to $680 million.

• Revenue increased by 5.3% YoY to JPY192.0bn, with net income rising 17.1% YoY to JPY9.8bn.
• Segment operating profits showed varied growth, with notable increases in packaging inks and stable raw material costs.
• Forex impacts and structural market changes influenced revenue and operating profit across segments, with mixed YoY performance.

• Sales rose 13.2% YoY to JPY67.8bn, with operating profit up 22.2% YoY to JPY15.2bn.
• Electronics segment sales reached JPY46.3bn (+8.9% YoY), with a segment profit increase of 14.5% YoY.
• Medical and Pharmaceuticals segment sales were JPY18.5bn (+22.4% YoY), segment profit surged 160.6% YoY.

• With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.
• 4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
• The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.

• Guidance cut (Business Profit ¥500 bn → ¥450 bn) as U.S. Steel delivers no profit contribution, overseas spreads weaken, and one-off losses weigh on earnings; domestic operations remain resilient.
• Integration drag : $11 bn U.S. Steel modernization plan and rigid U.S. labor terms keep margins diluted and free cash flow negative; deleveraging and ROCE recovery deferred to FY27+.
• Valuation rich, patience warranted: Trading at ~19× EV/EBITDA (vs peer median ~10×) with ROCE < 8%; maintain Hold / Underweight until synergy visibility and free-cash-flow inflection emerge post-FY26.

• Two gates cleared: Borrowing-limit and FY24 audit milestones complete; Sidara’s 30 p bid now hinges solely on A&E execution by 31 Dec 2025.
• Market discount persists: At 22 p, shares imply 30–35 % failure probability; downside largely priced, upside to 30 p offers 36 % absolute return.
• Event-Driven focus: Binary risk now procedural, not strategic—spread likely to tighten toward high-20s once A&E documentation confirmed.

• The WTI Crude futures market currently trades with persistent and significant opposing market forces actively holding the price within a defined trading range.
• Long-Term supply/demand bearishness and a strong geopolitical risk premium create a price floor, which could be further supported by recent decisions by OPEC+
• This structural back-and-forth in price action creates a window to execute a strategic options trade monetizing implied volatility levels.

• Hindustan Zinc is one of the world’s largest, lowest-cost, integrated producers of zinc-lead, with a significant and growing silver byproduct business that enhances margins and provides a hedge against zinc price volatility.
• The company is pursuing a major capacity expansion to 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), funded by strong internal cash flows, aiming to solidify its cost leadership and capture growing demand, particularly in the Indian market.
• A significant overhang on the stock is the ongoing disagreement between the company’s management (led by majority shareholder Vedanta) and the Government of India (a 29.54% shareholder) regarding a proposed demerger of the zinc and silver assets, creating uncertainty for investors.

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• Cumulative Q3 FY12/25 revenue was JPY57.9bn (+2.5% YoY), with operating profit at JPY3.2bn (-13.6% YoY).
• Domestic Ferroalloys business saw a JPY400mn YoY decline in underlying recurring profit, reaching JPY500mn in cumulative Q3.
• Functional Materials business reported a JPY200mn YoY increase in underlying recurring profit, reaching JPY1.2bn in cumulative Q3.

• Shawbrook (SHAW LN), the biggest UK IPO of the year, is expected to be included in UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£2bn.
• Pan African Resources (PAF LN) transferred its listing to the Main Market resulting in its anticipated addition to UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£1.8bn.
• Princes Group (PRN LN) is anticipated to be included in UK 250 and All-Share following its IPO in November at a market cap of ~£1bn.

• Chevron demonstrated strong operational momentum in Q3 2025, with record worldwide production of over 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day with upside from the Hess integration.
• The stock is trading at a premium valuation with a challenging but achievable growth path in terms of annual growth rates and revenues.
• Given the current valuation and financial outlook, the upcoming Investor Day on November 12, 2025, presents a short-term window to potentially put on a single stock options strategy.

• The company reported revenue of JPY79.9bn, operating profit of JPY2.1bn, and net income of JPY674mn, with varied YoY changes.
• Revenue and operating profit decreased in domestic operations due to lower sales volumes and productivity issues, despite overseas growth.
• Revenue and operating profit increased in precision springs and special alloy powder businesses, driven by higher sales volumes and price adjustments.

• Corcel has received final ministerial approval for the Environmental Impact Assessment, granting full environmental clearance to proceed with seismic acquisition activities within the KON-16 Block.
• The approved licence encompasses both 2D seismic acquisition and future exploration drilling operations.
• The seismic programme is underpinned by £3.85 mm in proceeds from the accelerated exercise of warrants.