Energy & Materials Sector

• In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
• A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
• However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will look at the firm’s valuation.

• The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a “pure gold business” to the market. Such “asset revaluation” can unlock the hidden value of gold business.
• For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.
• Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.

• China’s refined copper output is projected to contract 4–5% this month—the first seasonal decline since 2016—driven by smelter inefficiencies and concentrate shortages.
• Exchange inventories show divergence: LME and SHFE stocks are falling while CME stocks rise, amplifying regional supply tightness and premium volatility.
• CME Copper futures show strengthening bullish momentum, with RSI above 50 and MACD nearing a bullish crossover, signaling improving market sentiment.

• On 16 September, it was reported in the local media that SK Innovation’s subsidiary SK Geo Centric plans to sell its entire 35% stake in the Sinopec-SK Petrochem JV.
• The transaction is expected to be priced closed to its book value of about 819 billion won. Sinopec is a leading potential buyer. 
• From 2020 to 2024, SK Geo Centric generated cumulative operating profit of 695 billion won, accounting for 12.7% of SK Innovation’s cumulative operating profit in this period. 

• Buy Case: ~20% CAGR growth to 2027E, SOE backing, and potential index inclusion make Zijin the fastest-growing gold producer globally.
• Sell Case: At $40bn, Zijin trades at major-level multiples with mid-tier reserve depth, raising questions on sustainability.
• Swing Factor: Gold price trajectory and flawless execution in Ghana, Laos, and Kazakhstan will determine if the IPO clears closer to the low or high end of the range.

• Funding not a hurdle: Promoter strength provides comfort despite past negative precedents.
• Valuation undemanding: Entry at ~US$440–475/t is below replacement cost and past cycle-peak deals.
• Execution heavy: Success depends on managing restructuring, integration, and EU policy commitments.

• JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday.
• GLN will enter the Top 40, with APN falling out (projections sent out on 26 Aug, confirmed by the JSE on Wednesday 3 Sep).
• There is quite a bit on the go on the economic calendar this week – FOMC on Wednesday evening, BOE and SARB on Thursday. 

• Global uranium demand is escalating quickly as China doubles its nuclear power plants by 2030 and the U.S. increases its inventory for its energy independence and growing energy needs.
• CGN Mining (1164 HK) is China’s largest uranium trading company, with partnerships with the Kazakhstan government in some of the largest uranium mines in the world.
• CGN secured an off-take contract with China General Nuclear Power Group at prices that are 50% higher than previous contract.  Approximately 60% of CGN’s revenue is from EU and U.S.

• H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.
• Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).
• On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with >10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.

• Friday post-close the MarketVector™️ Global Gold Miners Index announced its rebalance changes and as a result, the flows for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF are known.
• As per the expectations of our Quiddity Index PS, the MVGDX added only Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) resulting in 8 ADDs and 24 DELs for the VanEck benchmark change.
• The significant move in gold prices the last month have more than doubled the deletion/capping flow total to $12.6bn. There are some REALLY big flows here. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$3bn.  
• I previously discussed the IPO and outlined my investment thesis in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis. 

• Resonac continues to reshape its portfolio, scaling growth materials while rationalising legacy chemicals and electrodes.
• FY2025 guidance appears conservative, particularly on profit, leaving room for upside if current momentum is sustained.
• Valuation & risk: Shares trade at a discount to global peers, with re-rating potential contingent on execution and balance sheet discipline.

• High Growth: ~80% production increase (36t to 65t, 2024–27E) via Buriticá, Aurora, Porgera, Central Asia.
• Valuation: Filing suggests US$12–16bn (US$3–4bn raise, 6–7.5× EV/EBITDA); market eyes US$30–40bn.
• Key Dynamics: SOE-backed expansion; risks in EM execution and AISC (~US$1,350/oz by 2027E).

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

• In the history of mining corporate strategy, few companies have executed a more comprehensive and successful transformation than Lundin Mining between 2020 and 2024.
• Under the sequential leadership of CEO Peter Rockandel and his successor, Jack Lundin, the company has orchestrated a methodical repositioning from an unfocused, geographically diversified base metals producer into a concentrated, copper-dominant miner with world-class greenfield growth prospects.
• This transformation, achieved through the sale of non-core assets, a doubling down on the pursuit of operational excellence, and over four billion dollars in strategic capital allocation decisions, represents a masterclass in corporate strategy within the cyclical and capital-intensive mining industry.

• OPEC’s Group of Eight discussed unwinding production cuts and increasing oil production, led by Saudi Arabia to bring energy prices down
• OPEC’s cooperation with non-OPEC producers, including Russia and Kazakhstan, resulted in a 2 million barrels per day production cut in late 2022
• Dr. Anas Alhaji, Energy Outlook Advisors managing partner, discussed OPEC’s actions and outlook on oil prices in an interview with Macro Voices host, Eric Townsend

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• Price structures have remained resilient in 2025, with Brent and WTI in backwardation despite OPEC supply hikes and increasing crude inventories
• Five conditions were needed for crude prices to start reflecting year-end weakness, but only two have materialized so far
• OECD crude inventories have not built as aggressively as expected, with a lopsided increase in global stocks outside of Western markets, particularly in China

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• Perimeter had a strong quarter with revenues up 28% year over year to 163 million, driven by growth in both their fire safety and specialty products segments
• EBITDA growth was even stronger at 91 million, with the Fire Safety segment enjoying a 98% incremental margin, showing operating leverage and operational efficiency
• Perimeter’s acquisition strategy and diversification into new platforms are helping to offset the impact of wildfires on their business, with promising growth potential for the future.

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• Anglo Tech merger is a massive deal with significant potential synergies and benefits for both companies, particularly in copper production
• The deal is well structured with operational synergies and nil premium merger, making it difficult for potential interlopers to compete
• Anglo has shown remarkable turnaround from being undervalued and criticized to being a key player in the industry, with significant government approvals and listing requirements in place for the deal to be successful

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• There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
• The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

• There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs. Hesai Group (HSAI US) H Share listing.
• Event-Driven developments: Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP), Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK).

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we review the global focus on critical minerals, how ASEAN’s digital economy can grow amidst political uncertainty, and how IT services have fared with AI
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

• “Beautiful Skew” slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
• Last week’s long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.
• Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.
• Valuation & Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.

• There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
• Encore Energy (EU US) will replace Boss Energy (BOE AU) in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index. 
• The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• Business Performance – BRMS has delivered explosive revenue and earnings growth, with Citra Palu now producing ~100k oz gold annually at strong margins.
• Plans – The company is expanding with a third plant at Citra Palu in 2025 and developing the Gorontalo copper-gold project for 2027.
• Growth & Valuation – With ~8 Moz in reserves and NAV leverage, BRMS is positioned to double revenues post-2027, though current valuations already embed high expectations.

• Following shareholder approval, there’ll be an index DELetion for Brickworks (BKW AU), and an index UPweight for Soul Patts (SOL AU). BKW’s last day of trading is the 15th September. 
• Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)‘s Offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). That leaves this to be done by Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), unopposed.
• After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan asserts control of News Corp Class B (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).

• Kiri Industries has signed a deal to sell its 37.6% stake in DyStar Global to Zhejiang Longsheng for US$697 million (~INR 5,800 crore), concluding a decade-long Singapore court battle.
• The payout is multiple times Kiri’s current market cap and marks one of the strongest minority shareholder wins globally.
• The DyStar exit removes litigation overhang and hands Kiri a war chest. Now, execution of the copper and fertilizer project will define the future of the company.

• Recent News: CZSPT’s Sep 9 guidance points to imported zinc concentrate treatment charges of US$120-140/dmt for Q4, and Bloomberg confirms Chinese smelters are tightening terms.
• Impact: This rebound in TC/RC levels should lift Korea Zinc’s EBITDA by approximately US$100-135 million, representing a ~5-7% earnings upside over current troughs.
• Valuation: On normalized earnings, Korea Zinc could re-rate to 8–9× EV/EBITDA. At $120–150/dmt TCs, this points to ~20–50% upside, with further headroom if multiples expand alongside earnings recovery.

• Supply jitters and China’s steel rebound lifted prices, as Rio faces local refining pressure and Brazil fire fears linger.
• Managed money participants are rebuilding bullish bets, lifting net longs and open interest, signalling revived demand and expectations of further gains.
• Prices pulled back after hitting the upper Bollinger band, hinting at profit-taking as traders watch the basis band for support.

• Leading Japanese specialty steelmaker with core exposure to auto, stainless/alloys, magnets, and industrial components.
• Mid-Term strategy centers on higher-margin growth products (SPE stainless, magnets, aerospace forgings) supported by new VAR and forging capacity.
• Valuations & Risks: Trades at a forward P/E compressing to ~5× by FY28E, but cyclical demand swings and raw material volatility remain key risks.

• U.S. tariffs intensify strain on the petrochemical sector, shielding domestic producers while redirecting Chinese exports into Asia and leaving European firms most exposed.
• Trade barriers amplify oversupply pressures, benefiting U.S.-centric petrochemical firms, granting Middle Eastern players new market share, and pushing Chinese exporters into low-margin Asian markets.
• Global petrochemicals face a reset, exposing Europe’s vulnerabilities, capping Asian gains, and reinforcing domestic advantages for American producers.

• Spanish Mountain is the 100% owner of the Spanish Mountain Gold Project, which hosts a 4.2Moz resource (M&I) and recently published a robust PEA outlining a 24.5-year mine life.
• With a base case NPV5% of $1.0B and 98% of mine tonnage in the M&I category, the project is rapidly advancing toward a construction decision.
• Management and directors own 18%, aligning interests with investors, while Eric Sprott and Ian Watson own 11% and 6%, respectively.

• Enterprise Products Partners L.P. delivered solid financial results for the second quarter of 2025 despite facing macroeconomic challenges and seasonal headwinds.
• The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion and distributable cash flow (DCF) of $1.9 billion, providing a robust 1.6x distribution coverage.
• Enterprise retained $740 million of DCF, which underscores its strong cash generation capabilities and prudent financial management.

• In today’s edition: • SBM Offshore | ABS grants approval in principle to SBMO for blue ammonia concept • Dutch banks/insurers | Dutch mortgage market continues to show healthy growth

• CRH plc recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating robust performance across various metrics.
• The company delivered a record second quarter with a 6% year-on-year increase in total revenue, amounting to $10.2 billion.
• This growth was driven by strong underlying demand, positive pricing momentum, and contributions from acquisitions.

• Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
• Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
• Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.

• Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold suggests implied EV of US$40.4 billion and market cap of US$42.9 billion.
• Our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple of 14.3x is based on a 50% premium to the comps’ valuation multiple in 2026. 
• We believe a 50% premium valuation to the comps’ average EV/EBITDA multiple is appropriate for Zijin Gold mainly due its higher sales growth, EBITDA margins, and ROE than the comps. 

• Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) at JPY480, a 44.1% premium to the last close.
• While the offer implies a P/B of 0.54x, it is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and at a premium to historical ranges. 
• Nevertheless, the offer is susceptible to a bump as it is far from a knockout bid, and Fuji Oil previously had activists on the register.  

• Sailun revives Bridgestone’s idle TBR plant, breaks ground in Egypt  
•  Chinese pneumatic tire exports climb 4.6% in value in H1 2025  
• Jiangsu General ramps up projects in Thailand and Cambodia  

• Asian Energy Services (AOS IN) has received board approval for the merger of  promoter entity Oilmax Energy, with share swap ratio: 117 shares of AESL for 10 shares of Oilmax.
• The merger is a strategic move to consolidate OEPL’s asset ownership, including producing oil and gas fields, with AESL’s execution and services capabilities.
• The valuation of the parent company is looking costlier, and a reduction in promoter stake makes things skeptical in transaction.

• Anglo American (AAL LN) – BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) fails in May 2024; 17 months later, Anglo American (AAL LN) – Teck Resources (TECK US) merge.
• The Anglo Teck portfolio will have more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual copper production, anchored by six world-class copper assets with more than 70% copper exposure.
• The company will divest its non-core assets, including DeBeers, steelmaking coal, nickel, and other similar assets, and pivot to consolidating/growing its copper operations.

• ADNOC’s €62 per share bid for Covestro has 91.3% acceptance and antitrust clearance; the Foreign Subsidies Regulation review remains the gating item, with remedies on capital increase, guarantees, and IP.
• At €58.74, Covestro trades 5.55% below €62, implying 24–30% annualized IRRs if FSR approval and closing arrive by year-end; a Q1’26 slip still screens ~18%; break downside approximates −22% today.
• New buyers need a clean-up event: squeeze-out ≥95% or delisting/merger squeeze-out; DPLTA excluded until 2028. ADNOC needs ~6.7–7.0m shares to reach 95%, costing roughly €395–433m at €58.74–€62 post-approval and execution.

• ADF reported Q2 financials that missed our expectations on the back of uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, similar to Q1.
• Revenue came in at $53.0M (-29% YoY) vs. our estimate of $58.2M and EBITDA came in at $3.7M vs. our estimate of $10.0M.
• ADF remains well-positioned for H2 given that its backlog was $468.0M, (+60% since Q4), all of its employees have returned on a full-time basis, and its acquisition of LAR Group will provide further growth.

• Allegiant launched a fully funded 2,000m drill program within the McIntosh zone; the first phase of a 20,000m campaign at Eastside.
• Results from the ongoing drill program are expected in October and November, as we anticipate a news-heavy fall and winter.
• The recent $10.5M financing, led by Kinross and including Eric Sprott, leaves AUAU cashed up with $14M to aggressively advance exploration.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
• The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China. 
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

• Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.
• The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.
• The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.

Key points (machine generated)

• The analysis focuses on Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) and its potential in the platinum group metals (PGMs) market, while also considering competitors like Northam Platinum and Impala Platinum.
• The thesis suggests that decreasing production costs can lead to increased profits and stock prices as commodity prices rise.
• Sibanye-Stillwater operates in South Africa and the United States but faces geopolitical risks associated with its South African operations, a common challenge for PGM miners in the region.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Ecolab reported a robust second quarter with notable strengths and some areas of challenge.
• The company maintained a strong trajectory of double-digit earnings growth amidst a complex global operating environment.
• Organic sales grew by 3%, driven largely by strong value pricing and the core business’s momentum.

• Nucor Corporation delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2025, indicating resilience and adaptation in a volatile economic environment.
• The company reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of approximately $1.3 billion and an earnings per share of $2.60, reflecting robust performance compared to the previous quarter.
• This improvement is primarily attributed to higher average selling prices in the steel mills segment and steady pricing coupled with increased volumes in the Steel Products segment.

• Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, depicting a mixed picture of the company’s performance amid varying market conditions.
• The company recorded a net income of $242 million, or $2.67 per share, an increase from the previous year’s $199 million, or $2.20 per share.
• Excluding special items, net income was $224 million, translating to $2.48 per share, exceeding the prior year’s figures and beating the guidance by $0.07 per share due to lower operating and fiber costs.

• The latest financial results for Reliance, Inc. present a complex picture, highlighting both the company’s robust performance in certain areas and the challenges posed by ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainties.
• Positives from the results include a record performance in terms of tons sold during the second quarter, with growth outpacing the industry average by 7 percentage points.
• This success can be attributed to the company’s extensive scale, access to domestic metals, and comprehensive processing capabilities, further showcasing Reliance’s ability to leverage its operational efficiencies and market position to capture additional market share effectively.

• Production at the Triton FPSO is currently running at a reduced rate due to a vibration issue within the compression trains, requiring bearing replacement.
• Normal output is expected to resume by end-September.
• Triton achieved net production of over 25,000 boe/d in August using only one compressor.

• 3Q25 Uzbekistan production to date has averaged 10,284 boe/d; which is consistent with 10,258 boe/d reported in 2Q25.
• Drilling of the first vertical well in Uzbekistan is underway, with results expected in October.
• The well is targeting the producing carbonate reservoir, as well as deeper clastic formations and fractured basement intervals.

• On 5 September, Shenge increased its minimum scheme consideration for Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) to A$0.443, a 23% premium to the previous minimum cash consideration.
• The IE considers the offer fair and reasonable. The key conditions are approval from the Fair Competition Commission of Tanzania and shareholder approval (vote scheduled for 16 September).
• This is a done deal, as Tanzania approval and the vote are low-risk. At the last close and for a 30 September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.5%/147%.  

• Zijin Mining is spinning off its seven overseas gold mines into Zijin Gold International, creating a dedicated, pure-play gold producer and positioning it for a Hong Kong IPO.
• The IPO proceeds will primarily fund mine upgrades and overseas M&A, with a portion earmarked to reinforce the balance sheet and corporate flexibility.
• With media reports suggesting a $3B+ IPO size and potential launch in September, coupled with gold rallying above $3,600/oz, investor appetite around the listing is notably heightened.

• Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.
• Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. 
• There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. 

• Anglo and Teck agreed an at-market merger of equals, creating a copper-tilted major. Pro forma ownership about 62%/38%; HQ Vancouver, primary LSE listing. Anglo plans a sizeable pre-close special dividend.
• Scenario-Based synergy valuation indicates multi-billion upside, with recurring cost savings earlier and long-dated Chile adjacency optionality subject to partner alignment and permitting. This frames interloper incentives, break-price support, and re-rating.
• Approvals hinge on Canada’s net-benefit test and multi-jurisdictional antitrust; shareholder hurdles look manageable. I favor a hedged long-TECK/short-AAL pair capturing a double-digit spread, with dividend liabilities on the AAL short.

• Paushak is undergoing a INR 240 crore capex program to expand its downstream capacities and move into semi-specialized products, impacting near-term profitability.
• The company’s strong market position in phosgene derivatives and custom manufacturing for global players underpins its long-term growth potential despite current financial pressures.
• While elevated valuations reflect short-term capex strain, Paushak’s long-term growth trajectory and strategic expansion reinforce its strong market outlook, maintaining a bullish stance for the future.

• Anglo American and Teck Resources merge in a $53 billion deal, creating the world’s fifth-largest copper producer with defensive scale.
• The merger promises $800 million in annual cost synergies by the end of 4th year, but execution across multiple jurisdictions will remain a challenge.
• Regulatory approval in Canada and key stakeholder positions, including Keevil and Elliott, will be pivotal to deal success.

• Vedanta (VEDL) recently emerged as the highest bidder in a fiercely competitive auction to acquire Jaiprakash Associates (JAL), a key player in the Indian infrastructure sector.
• With an offer of INR 17,000 crore, Vedanta secured the company’s assets under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) resolution process.
• While the deal presents an opportunity for Vedanta to expand its footprint in diverse sectors, several factors raise concerns about the financial sustainability and strategic risks associated with this acquisition.

• US base oils demand could ease in face of downward price-pressure and healthy availability of supply.
• Buyers that built stocks as buffer against supply-disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season could start to tap those volumes before seeking additional supplies.
• Demand could face more downward pressure if buyers are wary about exposure to further drop in prices.

• Exploits has agreed to sell its Newfoundland mineral claims to New Found Gold for up to $8.8M, including $7.0M in shares and a 1% NSR royalty.
• The royalty applies to Bullseye, Gezeebow, and Keats West, which we previously noted as important for advancing NFG’s Queensway Project.
• The Company is well-funded for exploration at its Ontario and Quebec Projects, hosting 680Koz in historical gold resources.

• Giga will begin a geophysics program at its Turnagain project targeting copper, platinum, and palladium potential near the existing resource.
• The Company recently closed its non-brokered private placement, raising C$690K across two tranches of flow-through and non-flow-through units.
• Initial results from the program are expected in early October, marking the first operational step under new CEO Scott Lendrum.

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.  
• Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
• The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.

• Several local news outlets reported that Ecopro Co is pursuing a plan to raise about 700 billion won through a PRS agreement using its stake in Ecopro BM as collateral.
• Ecopro BM currently has a market cap of 11.4 trillion won. A PRS worth 700 billion won (assuming no change in share price), represents 6.1% of Ecopro BM’s market cap. 
• Although Ecopro has not officially announced this PRS deal, we believe that this is a high probability (70%-80%+) that this deal will get done in the next several weeks.

• Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.
• Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.
• Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.

• Global oil demand remains relatively healthy with little signs of a near term global recession
• Sanctions on Russia and Iran could impact oil supply, but buyers are finding ways to navigate around restrictions
• Non-OPEC supply is expected to outpace global demand, leading to a surplus and potentially pushing prices into the 60s by year end.

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• Meanwhile, the other commodity cohorts are now deeply “undervalued” when compared to the price of gold.
• Commodities excluding gold, relative to gold prices, have fallen to their lowest level since 2021, according to a graphic by Topdown Charts…
• In the latest UBS CTA-flow analysis, the investment bank says that it “expects more agricultural buybacks in the coming weeks.” 

• Anglo American (AAL LN) retained a 20% stake in Valterra Platinum (VAL SJ) following its demerger at the end of May 2025.
• Anglo American (AAL LN) sold its entire stake in Valterra for $2.5bn via a placement expected to be completed on 9 September.
• The free float is expected to increase by 20 percentage points, triggering passive fund demand of $360m and 1.7 ADV in Global and South African indices.

• Almonty Industries Inc. delivered first half 2025 results that highlight both the transitional state of its operating portfolio and the considerable strategic progress achieved in the period.
• For the six months ended June 30, 2025, revenue totaled C$15.10 million, down modestly from C$15.76 million in the prior-year period, while the net loss widened sharply to C$92.83 million compared with C$5.58 million in the first half of 2024.
• The increase in losses was driven primarily by non-cash revaluation charges related to warrants and embedded derivatives, along with higher share-based compensation and increased corporate expenses linked to the company’s redomiciling and U.S. listing preparations.

• Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
• As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
• We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends

• June exports dipped 1.04% YoY but rose 11% month-on-month  
• Sri Lanka uses diplomacy to safeguard US$300 million US market  
• Domestic Reforms, EU market access next on agenda

Endeavour Silver (EDR) is poised for a step change as the integration of Kolpa and the ramp-up of Terronera nearly double output and cement its transition to a senior silver producer. A quality asset portfolio and a robust growth pipeline position the company to capture upside from favourable commodity prices and attractive long-term industry fundamentals. The stock trades at a visible discount to peers despite offering the highest exposure to silver and strong earnings momentum.

• The $25.6bn acquisition of Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US) by Omnicom Group (OMC US) may close by 11 September, with a possible extension if the merger is delayed.
• CRH plc (CRH US) is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of IPG in S&P500, followed by Cheniere Energy (LNG US).
• CRH plc (CRH US) regained eligibility after reporting positive quarterly earnings in August.

• This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton. 
• Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.
• Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) are our favorite names. The restart of the Cobre Panama mine (although low probability) could boost First Quantum Minerals (FM CN).

• We are now set for a decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.  
• Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW. 
• We continue to advocate strongly for Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again for a detailed outline of our thesis.