Most Read

Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.
NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), NIO (9866 HK), New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) benefit; GDS Holdings (9698 HK) loses out.
The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the Hang Seng TECH Index.

Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to place 750m shares at a price range of HK$52.8-54.6/share, a 4.2-7.4% discount from last. That could raise up to HK$40.95bn (US$5.27bn).
There will be limited passive buying near-term. There will be more passive buying at the end of May. Then there will be passive selling early June.
Shorts will be hurting from the relentless move higher in the stock and there could be short covering if the stock moves lower from these levels.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Uncomfortable Truths

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) has published two documents to respond to misinformation and detail its “constructive engagement” with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
The statements underscore the Board’s serious doubts about securing US antitrust approval. The significant discrepancies in the engagement timeline point to two parties at loggerheads.
While the Board claims it is pursuing a dual-track process to create value, the reality is that the process is designed to hinder Couche-Tard’s offer to facilitate the restructuring plan.

7&I (3382) – Clarifications of Clarifications But Progress Is Apparent

On 10 March, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) released a statement about its interactions with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). The next day, ATD released its own. They didn’t match.
The 7&i spokesperson admitted one technical point, but investors seemed to believe ATD over 7&i. On 13 March, ATD held a presentation in Tokyo. Materials? Unchanged. Earnings comments? Unchanged.
This morning, 7&i released a document which “corrects the record regarding critical false and misleading claims about 7&i’s engagement with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT).” OUCH. The stock fell.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close of trading on 31 March.
Since announcement, BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.
Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.

Revisiting Korea’s Local Rights Issue Arb Setup

Korea’s rights issues offer a clean arb setup—track stock rights vs. spot price, with first price as a cap, and lock in predictable entry vs. exit costs.
Aggressive locals skip hedging, betting the discount holds between final pricing and listing. History backs it, but it’s a case-by-case call—not a blanket recommendation.
Samsung SDI and Hanwha Aerospace’s KRW 5.5T raise is massive, likely flooding stock rights into the market—prime setup for arb plays.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – KKR Does Deal With the Family To Squeeze Out Minorities – You Can Join Too

KKR’s Second Tender Offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) ended 19 February 2025 and KKR got a whopping 57.9% after Bain bowed out. It was close.
The Nozawa founder said it would not tender. Others family members may have, but now KKR has signed a deal with Nozawa family company YK NFC, to support the squeezeout.
Assuming, Nozawa Hiroshi’s stake and the NFC stake remain unchanged, that cements the result of the 25 April AGM. But there may be games to play.

More Gold Fever: Gold Field’s Hostile Tilt For Gold Road

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ),
In a bid to secure control over the Gruyere JV mine in WA, Gold Roads offered A$2.27/share, “plus … Gold Road’s interest in .. De Grey Mining (DEG AU).“
To spice things up Gold Road countered with a proposal to acquire Gold Fields’ interest in Gruyere, which was also rejected by Gold Fields.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.
Of the 14 stocks, we see Mixue Group (2097 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Bloks Group (1850960D CH) as potential HSCI inclusions in June.
There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.

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Mar 25

Most Read: BayCurrent Consulting , NetEase , Sun Corp, Xiaomi Corp, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Tokyu Reit Inc, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Gold Road Resources, CRH and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase
Sun Corp (6736) – Still Cheap
Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum
Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.
Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again – Bigger Than You Think It Is
A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement – Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive
Gold Road (GOR AU): Rejects an NBIO from Gold Fields (GFI US)
[Quiddity Index Mar25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Early Days But a Few Intrareview Changes Possible

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.
NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), NIO (9866 HK), New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) benefit; GDS Holdings (9698 HK) loses out.
The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the Hang Seng TECH Index.

Sun Corp (6736) – Still Cheap

Eight months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is as cheap to its main asset as it was before.
Sun Corp is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.
Understanding what the options are (and the dynamics around hedging/exposure) is worthwhile.

Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to place 750m shares at a price range of HK$52.8-54.6/share, a 4.2-7.4% discount from last. That could raise up to HK$40.95bn (US$5.27bn).
There will be limited passive buying near-term. There will be more passive buying at the end of May. Then there will be passive selling early June.
Shorts will be hurting from the relentless move higher in the stock and there could be short covering if the stock moves lower from these levels.

Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.

Today’s update clarifies which brokers are fully linked to NSDS, giving them an edge in short-selling speed and flexibility, while others face more execution constraints.
This leads to a clear execution risk gap, requiring traders to factor in trade efficiency differences based on their broker.
With lower short-selling restriction triggers, liquidity and short-covering dynamics will shift, requiring traders to reassess market impact and adjust strategies accordingly.

Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again – Bigger Than You Think It Is

Today, Tokyu Corp (9005 JP) announced it would increase its stake its family REIT, buying up to 48,880 units or 5.0% of units out over the next six months.
This comes a couple of days after Hankyu Hanshin announced the same for its REIT, discussed here. Others have done so before. Tokyu has. Others will do so going forward.
The main reason? Squeeze the ‘share’ price higher. Get the REIT to 1.0x PNAV then stuff it with sponsor-held properties. That’s not bad. The goal is a higher price.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.

Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement – Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive

By Sumeet Singh

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.3bn via selling 3% additional shares.
The shares have done exceedingly well this year and are now trading at their all time highs.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Gold Road (GOR AU): Rejects an NBIO from Gold Fields (GFI US)

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Gold Fields (GFI US). The offer is A$2.27 plus value per share of Gold Road’s shareholding in De Grey.
The Board has rejected the offer mainly due to opportunistic timing and no value attributed to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine (Gold Road/Gold Fields are JV partners).
The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges.

[Quiddity Index Mar25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Early Days But a Few Intrareview Changes Possible

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

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Mar 24

Most Read: NetEase , Sun Corp, Binex Co Ltd, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Meituan, Shinko Electric Industries, VIOL , Kum Yang , Guangzhou Automobile Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase
Sun Corp (6736) – Still Cheap
KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Binex (053030 KS) To Replace HLB Life Science (067630 KS)
Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.
China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?
Meituan (3690 HK): 4Q24, High Growth and Higher Margin, 60% Upside
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Westgold/Spartan, Dropsuite, Shandong Fengxiang, Proto Corp, Shinko Electric
Detailing KRX Market Alerts & Passive Flow Plays
Kum Yang: A Potential Delisting? [Murphy’s Law in Progress]
A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.
NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), NIO (9866 HK), New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) benefit; GDS Holdings (9698 HK) loses out.
The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the Hang Seng TECH Index.

Sun Corp (6736) – Still Cheap

Eight months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is as cheap to its main asset as it was before.
Sun Corp is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.
Understanding what the options are (and the dynamics around hedging/exposure) is worthwhile.

KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Binex (053030 KS) To Replace HLB Life Science (067630 KS)

HLB Life Science (067630 KS) was added to the Investment Attention Issue list on 21 March and traded limit down. Then came the announcement of the KOSDAQ 150 Index deletion.
As the highest ranked non-constituent from the Healthcare sector at the December rebalance, Binex (053030 KS) will be added to the KOSDAQ 150 Index at the close on 25 March.
Historically, intra-review inclusions have moved higher between announcement and implementation and there has been reversion post the index inclusion.

Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.

Today’s update clarifies which brokers are fully linked to NSDS, giving them an edge in short-selling speed and flexibility, while others face more execution constraints.
This leads to a clear execution risk gap, requiring traders to factor in trade efficiency differences based on their broker.
With lower short-selling restriction triggers, liquidity and short-covering dynamics will shift, requiring traders to reassess market impact and adjust strategies accordingly.

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.
GDS Holdings (9698 HK), China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK), Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK), and BYD Electronics (285 HK) are possible candidates.
Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.

Meituan (3690 HK): 4Q24, High Growth and Higher Margin, 60% Upside

By Ming Lu

In 4Q24, Meituan’s revenue growth rate was 20% YoY with all businesses rising.
The operating margin improved to 8.8% in 4Q24 versus about zero in 4Q23.
We set an upside of 61% and a price target of HK$270. Buy.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Westgold/Spartan, Dropsuite, Shandong Fengxiang, Proto Corp, Shinko Electric

I tally 52 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three news new deals discussed this week: the Westgold Resources (WGX AU)/Spartan Resources (SPR AU) merger, and EcoNaviSta (5585 JP)‘s Tender Offer.
Key updates/news took place on: Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU),Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Proto Corp (4298 JP), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).

Detailing KRX Market Alerts & Passive Flow Plays

HLB Life Science faces delisting if it stays in ATTENTION for four years or gets a disclaimer in an audit—barring surprises, there’s still runway before it’s a real threat.
HLB Inc getting ATTENTION in May looks likely, as KRX factors in frequent correction disclosures—HLB’s history with Rivoceranib filings and the failed FDA bid add to the risk.
If HLB Inc. gets ATTENTION in May and drops from KOSDAQ 150, VIOL (335890 KS) steps in—worth positioning ahead of late April.

Kum Yang: A Potential Delisting? [Murphy’s Law in Progress]

Murphy’s law is at progress for Kum Yang (001570 KS).
On 21 March, Kum Yang’s external auditor gave a disclaimer of opinion on the on its audit report.
Korea Exchange is becoming more serious about delisting shady companies, especially one that receives inappropriate audit opinions for two consecutive years.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.

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Mar 23

Most Read: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, SAIC Motor, Maynilad Water Services, DN Solutions, Nikkei 225, Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc., Binex Co Ltd, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Beenos Inc, China Mobile and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses
Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO
DN Solutions IPO: Index Inclusion Timing Depends on Lock-Up Expiry Schedule
Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance
Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come
KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Binex (053030 KS) To Replace HLB Life Science (067630 KS)
Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.
LY Corp (4689) Launches Beenos (3328) Tender Offer at ¥4,000
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of “Day Trading” And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though.
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.

Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO

Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.
The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.
Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion could take place in August 2026.

DN Solutions IPO: Index Inclusion Timing Depends on Lock-Up Expiry Schedule

DN Solutions (298440 KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,573bn (US$1.08bn), valuing the company at KRW 5.66 trillion (US$3.9bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
The highest probability of DN Solutions being added to the KOSPI200 Index is at the June 2026 rebalance. The stock needs to move 60% higher to be added in December 2025.
Inclusion in global indices could commence in August/November and will depend on institutional investor lock-up schedules. Flows are small unless the stock moves higher and is included in bigger indices.

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.
As explained by Travis Lundy and Brian Freitas the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.
The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.

Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come

3D Investment Partners launched a Partial Tender Offer to buy a 10+% stake in Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). The REIT finally responded with a “Neutral” stance.
But they also upgraded earnings forecasts, bought a building, and announced the Sponsor would buy units in the market over the next year. It’s big.
And that creates flows, which then engender other reactive flows, and cascading flows, and because the sector isn’t rich, there may be a tailwind.

KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Binex (053030 KS) To Replace HLB Life Science (067630 KS)

HLB Life Science (067630 KS) was added to the Investment Attention Issue list on 21 March and traded limit down. Then came the announcement of the KOSDAQ 150 Index deletion.
As the highest ranked non-constituent from the Healthcare sector at the December rebalance, Binex (053030 KS) will be added to the KOSDAQ 150 Index at the close on 25 March.
Historically, intra-review inclusions have moved higher between announcement and implementation and there has been reversion post the index inclusion.

Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.

Today’s update clarifies which brokers are fully linked to NSDS, giving them an edge in short-selling speed and flexibility, while others face more execution constraints.
This leads to a clear execution risk gap, requiring traders to factor in trade efficiency differences based on their broker.
With lower short-selling restriction triggers, liquidity and short-covering dynamics will shift, requiring traders to reassess market impact and adjust strategies accordingly.

LY Corp (4689) Launches Beenos (3328) Tender Offer at ¥4,000

On Friday 21 March, LY (4689 JP) made an announcement it had received all the required approvals and would launch the Tender Offer on 24 March.
Some were upset about the price originally but unlike other deals, this one traded below terms for three months since original announcement. Three activish funds had pitched in their 30%.
This is now trading tight, and will continue to trade tight. If you own, whether you hold through early May depends on whether you are bullish or bearish the market.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of “Day Trading” And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$619bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$23bn which is much smaller than the last several weeks.
The flows here are still striking and net to buy. There has to be institutional buying. And I assume it is to get the earnings yield and div pickup.
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week.

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Mar 22

Most Read: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, BayCurrent Consulting , SAIC Motor, Samsung KODEX Autos ETF, Hanwha Aerospace, Rio Tinto Ltd, Bestechnic Shanghai , Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas
The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses
Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades
Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles
Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis
Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Jun25: ~US$1bn+ One-Way; Multiple Changes and Conviction Levels
Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come
Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though.
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.

Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades

Demand for less crowded rebalancing plays is rising, making off-the-radar flows more critical. A structured timeline is key to tracking and managing these setups efficiently.
Key ETFs to watch are local sector names with solid AUM—about 20 names. But the trading approach isn’t one-size-fits-all.
Stick to the schedule, track potential flow setups, and front-run by securing rebalance details early and positioning ahead of the crowd.

Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles

Market sees this as an M&A play, not just de-leveraging. Sentiment’s split, and despite a tight discount, uncertainty on take-up could spark major dislocations in stock and rights.
Hanwha’s ₩3.6T raise drops just a week after Samsung SDI’s ₩2T—₩5.5T back-to-back. Absorption looks brutal, setting up serious volatility and prime trading opps if liquidity tightens.
The FSC fast-tracked this, flagging it instantly but also hinting approval. With regulator risk off, any cash market snapback tomorrow should stay in check.

Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unification could unlock $27-32B in value, driven by cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, enhancing Rio Tinto’s market positioning and shareholder returns.
$2.88B in franking credits are lost annually due to the DLC structure; unification enables full utilization via higher franked dividends and strategic off-market buybacks.
Increased ASX200 and FTSE100 weighting post-unification could drive $5-7B in passive fund inflows, improving liquidity, stock valuation, and institutional investor appeal.

Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Jun25: ~US$1bn+ One-Way; Multiple Changes and Conviction Levels

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the June 2025 index rebal event.

Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come

3D Investment Partners launched a Partial Tender Offer to buy a 10+% stake in Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). The REIT finally responded with a “Neutral” stance.
But they also upgraded earnings forecasts, bought a building, and announced the Sponsor would buy units in the market over the next year. It’s big.
And that creates flows, which then engender other reactive flows, and cascading flows, and because the sector isn’t rich, there may be a tailwind.

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

By Nico Rosti

Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.

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Mar 21

Most Read: BayCurrent Consulting , SAIC Motor, Samsung KODEX Autos ETF, Hanwha Aerospace, BASE Inc, Idemitsu Kosan, Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemi, Dropsuite Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses
Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades
Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles
Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission
Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: US$1.4bn Total One-Way Flows; Basket Trade Idea
Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)
Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.

Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades

Demand for less crowded rebalancing plays is rising, making off-the-radar flows more critical. A structured timeline is key to tracking and managing these setups efficiently.
Key ETFs to watch are local sector names with solid AUM—about 20 names. But the trading approach isn’t one-size-fits-all.
Stick to the schedule, track potential flow setups, and front-run by securing rebalance details early and positioning ahead of the crowd.

Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles

Market sees this as an M&A play, not just de-leveraging. Sentiment’s split, and despite a tight discount, uncertainty on take-up could spark major dislocations in stock and rights.
Hanwha’s ₩3.6T raise drops just a week after Samsung SDI’s ₩2T—₩5.5T back-to-back. Absorption looks brutal, setting up serious volatility and prime trading opps if liquidity tightens.
The FSC fast-tracked this, flagging it instantly but also hinting approval. With regulator risk off, any cash market snapback tomorrow should stay in check.

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation

Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.

BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission

By Phil Rush

The BoE unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 4.5% in March, preserving its gradual easing path after resilient recent data. Only one MPC member dissented for a 25bp cut.
Catherine Mann did not carry the extra 25bp of easing she supported from February to March. Her hyperactive vote relied on so little spurious evidence it was swiftly falsified.
Core members emphasise the lack of a predetermined path, raising the hurdle to a May cut, but this remains the most likely outcome, even if it may require a rapid reversal.

Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently.
Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: US$1.4bn Total One-Way Flows; Basket Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 9 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event in June 2025.

Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector.

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity

Back on the 28th January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%.
Done & dusted no? Then Topline sold down to 19.7% on the 28th Jan, then 10.5% on the 28th Feb. The Takeover Panel now orders Topline to stop selling.

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Mar 20

Most Read: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, BayCurrent Consulting , Maynilad Water Services, Jiangxi Zhengbang Tech A, ENN Energy, Samsung KODEX Autos ETF, POSCO Holdings, SAIC Motor, Makino Milling Machine Co, Judo Capital and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas
The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun25: US$6bn+ One-Way Flows; One Intra-Review Addition Soon
ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas to Launch a Privatisation Offer?
Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades
POSCO Holdings Is Selling Nippon Steel Shares Worth 468 Billion Won
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Proposes Countermeasures
Judo Capital Placement – Clean up but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though.
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!

Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO

Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.
The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.
Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion could take place in August 2026.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun25: US$6bn+ One-Way Flows; One Intra-Review Addition Soon

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

ENN Energy (2688 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers containing inside information of the Company.”
ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), also in a trading halt, is likely seeking to privatise ENN through a Cayman scheme. A high AGM minority participation necessitates an attractive offer.
I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$66.50-85.01, with an average of HK$76.04, a 28% premium to the last close.

Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades

Demand for less crowded rebalancing plays is rising, making off-the-radar flows more critical. A structured timeline is key to tracking and managing these setups efficiently.
Key ETFs to watch are local sector names with solid AUM—about 20 names. But the trading approach isn’t one-size-fits-all.
Stick to the schedule, track potential flow setups, and front-run by securing rebalance details early and positioning ahead of the crowd.

POSCO Holdings Is Selling Nippon Steel Shares Worth 468 Billion Won

On 19 March, POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced that it is selling its stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) worth nearly 468 billion won (US$320 million).
POSCO Holdings’ sale of nearly US$320 million worth of Nippon Steel would be about 1.3% of its market cap.
POSCO Holdings’ sale of its stake in Nippon Steel is a positive move for POSCO Holdings as the company is continuing to execute its strategy of selling off non-core assets.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Proposes Countermeasures

The Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) Board has proposed introducing countermeasures to nudge Nidec Corp (6594 JP) to delay the start of the tender to 9 May.
The countermeasure was likely needed to facilitate a competing offer rather than force Nidec to provide the required information and delay the start (Nidec is still evaluating the request).
Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. The Board claims that there is a sufficient probability of a competing proposal.

Judo Capital Placement – Clean up but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Nicholas Tan

Bain and GIC looking to raise US$130m by selling their remaining stake in Judo Capital (JDO AU).
The deal will be a large one to digest at 30.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 9.2% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Mar 19

Most Read: Proto Corp, JX Advanced Metals, DN Solutions, EcoNaviSta , Canvest Environmental Protection Group, OneConnect Financial Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry
[Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton…
JX Advance Metals IPO Trading – Demand Wasn’t Great
UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting
DN Solutions IPO: Index Inclusion Timing Depends on Lock-Up Expiry Schedule
EcoNavista (5585 JP) – Takeover By Eisai (4523)
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut
JX Advanced Metals IPO Trading
Canvest (1381 HK): Get Involved
Ping An’s Strategic Buyout of OneConnect: Navigating Shareholder Approval and Financial Implications Amidst Declining Performance

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.
TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.

[Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton…

Late on the 17th, Proto Corp (4298 JP) released a filing to the TSE saying activist-ish investor and objector to the current MBO, Kaname Capital, had filed an injunction.
The injunction suit against two directors says procedures were unfair and the decision violated the duty of due care. They ask the Court to rule the directors halt support and…
…that the MBO actor YOKOYAMA Hiroichi not terminate the offer on 21 March 2025. Injunction filings against directors for Tender Offers are rare for a reason.

JX Advance Metals IPO Trading – Demand Wasn’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting

By Phil Rush

Updated inflation basket weightings can shift the inflation outlook without any new fundamental shock. The seasonal and trend outlook is unaffected by the 2025 update.
Although our forecast is broadly unchanged, this still mitigates the risk that reduced weights on energy and sanitation utilities dampen the surge in April and July forecasts.
This outcome further emboldens our confidence in our above-consensus forecast. We also note that the average import intensity is now weighted near historic lows.

DN Solutions IPO: Index Inclusion Timing Depends on Lock-Up Expiry Schedule

DN Solutions (298440 KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,573bn (US$1.08bn), valuing the company at KRW 5.66 trillion (US$3.9bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
The highest probability of DN Solutions being added to the KOSPI200 Index is at the June 2026 rebalance. The stock needs to move 60% higher to be added in December 2025.
Inclusion in global indices could commence in August/November and will depend on institutional investor lock-up schedules. Flows are small unless the stock moves higher and is included in bigger indices.

EcoNavista (5585 JP) – Takeover By Eisai (4523)

EcoNaviSta (5585 JP) has a couple of interesting product lines and platforms. That makes it attractive, and scalable. Synergies to a big buyer are reasonably obvious.
Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) is that big buyer, having decided to be interested last summer. I could imagine others could be interested too. The tech has uses.
For the moment, it is a high EV/Revenue bid on an interesting small company. The chairman, cross-holders, directors, and a couple of financial institutions own 66+%. But…

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.
Relevant notes: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair.
Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.

JX Advanced Metals IPO Trading

JX Advanced Metals raised 438.6 billion yen (US$3 billion) on its IPO offering after pricing the IPO at 820 yen per share, valuing the company at 761.3 billion yen.
Our base case valuation of JX Advanced Metals is price per share of 863 yen, based on P/E of 9.9x using our estimated net profit of 81 billion yen (2026E).
Therefore, we would sell into strength if the share price of JX Advanced Metals rises to the 863 yen to 1,044 yen per share.

Canvest (1381 HK): Get Involved

By Special Situation Investments

After SAFE gave the green light on the 19th Feb, I estimated only a week was required to secure the (strangely) outstanding internal guarantees. It took a frustrating three-and-a-half weeks.
Nevertheless, all pre-cons are now done. Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)‘s Scheme Document is expected to be dispatched or before the 25th April.
Assuming the Scheme gets up – and it will – expect payment around the 20th June. This is done.

Ping An’s Strategic Buyout of OneConnect: Navigating Shareholder Approval and Financial Implications Amidst Declining Performance

OneConnect received a non-binding acquisition proposal from Ping An Group at $7.98/ADS, requiring 75% shareholder approval.
Ping An acquired OneConnect’s virtual banking division for $119m and terminated its cloud services contract in 2024.
The buyout is financially attractive for Ping An, acquiring OCFT at net cash levels, with a US$100m consideration.

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Mar 18

Most Read: JX Advanced Metals, Sumitomo Corp, Rio Tinto Ltd, HKBN Ltd, Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group, Spartan Resources /Australi, Samsung Electronics, Shandong Fengxiang and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming
Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I
Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
Gunma Bank (8334) And DHFG (7327) In Integration Talks – ‘Guess The Ratio’ Is ‘Efficiency Vs Value’
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade
Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion
HKBN (1310 HK): Another Sing Tao Article as Speculation Swirls on MBK’s Loan Notes Conversion
The Backdrop Behind Today’s Pivot in Samsung’s Playbook
Fengxiang (9977 HK): Privatisation by PAG?

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming

By Sumeet Singh

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I

The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Letter for 2024 was released this weekend. Much was made in Japanese twitter-space of the comments he made on the Japanese trading houses.
He said Berkshire Hathaway’s admiration of these companies “has consistently grown” and Berkshire likes their capital deployment, managements, and their attitude in respect to investors. They also pay themselves reasonably.
He mentioned Berkshire will increase their stakes somewhat in the trading houses “over time.” That comment deserves some exploration, as does the comment about yen funding.

Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders.
Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board’s case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser’s case is strong on post-unification share price, M&A, and franking credits.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

Gunma Bank (8334) And DHFG (7327) In Integration Talks – ‘Guess The Ratio’ Is ‘Efficiency Vs Value’

Nikkei Business reported Friday 14 March that Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP) (“DHFG”) were in talks to integrate to create a Super-Regional Bank
Gunma and Daishi-Hokuetsu are part of the same multiple-regional bank alliances, including the Gunma-Daishi Hokuetsu Alliance since 2021, in order to collaborate regionally, build scale, and lower service provision cost.
As Gunma and Daishi Hokuetsu serve adjacent jurisdictions, and they are already exploring sharing branches, this makes sense. The World with Interest (rates above zero) may cause more integration talk.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.

Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion

Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

HKBN (1310 HK): Another Sing Tao Article as Speculation Swirls on MBK’s Loan Notes Conversion

A new Sing Tao Daily article on HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) claims that China Mobile (941 HK)’s offer is a stalemate, and a potential I Squared offer faces regulatory challenges.
The article is being unduly alarmist. The concerns raised on the China Mobile offer remain premature, and there remains a medium-to-high probability of a competing offer from I Squared.
Last Friday, MBK converted its vendor loan notes (VLN) into shares, which could signal that an I Squared competing offer is imminent.

The Backdrop Behind Today’s Pivot in Samsung’s Playbook

Jay Lee flipping the switch signals Samsung’s pivot—no more playing defense, no more legal jitters. Market’s reading this as full send on the next phase.
Near-Term, Samsung’s pushing hard—NVIDIA’s HBM qual tests are in focus. With NVIDIA’s event this week, traders are watching for bullish signals after earlier cautious moves.
The real juice? Samsung might drop a bold value-up play and a no-nonsense shareholder message. The prime launchpad: AGM day, this Wednesday, 19th, 9 AM.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Privatisation by PAG?

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” PAG, the controlling shareholder, likely aims to privatise Fengxiang.
The offer will likely be structured as a privatisation by merger by absorption requiring approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection).
The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates a reasonable offer. An offer of HK$1.80-2.00 (a 21%—33% premium to the last close) could win over these shareholders’ backing.

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Mar 17

Most Read: Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group, Hoa Phat Group Jsc, Pilbara Minerals, Broadcom , CK Hutchison Holdings, Tsuruha Holdings, Spartan Resources /Australi, HKBN Ltd, Technology One and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Gunma Bank (8334) And DHFG (7327) In Integration Talks – ‘Guess The Ratio’ Is ‘Efficiency Vs Value’
MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn
CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence
Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade
Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion

Gunma Bank (8334) And DHFG (7327) In Integration Talks – ‘Guess The Ratio’ Is ‘Efficiency Vs Value’

Nikkei Business reported Friday 14 March that Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP) (“DHFG”) were in talks to integrate to create a Super-Regional Bank
Gunma and Daishi-Hokuetsu are part of the same multiple-regional bank alliances, including the Gunma-Daishi Hokuetsu Alliance since 2021, in order to collaborate regionally, build scale, and lower service provision cost.
As Gunma and Daishi Hokuetsu serve adjacent jurisdictions, and they are already exploring sharing branches, this makes sense. The World with Interest (rates above zero) may cause more integration talk.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank (NAB VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.1% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$26m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.
Vietnam is on the watchlist of a global index provider for possible reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market and that could lead to inflows to the stocks.

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium (SLI US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close of trading on 21 March.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.
The largest inflows will be in Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Albemarle (ALB US) while there will be outflows from MP Materials (MP US) and Lynas Corp (LYC AU).

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article.
In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Technology One (TNE AU) will be added to the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) at the close on 21 March.
Surprisingly, there are no deletions from the index. The two inclusions, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.6% leading to a round-trip trade of A$288m.
There will be huge buying of A$1.2bn in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) at the same time from S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and related index trackers.

Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion